Footnotes

[1] Part VII, Report on the Work of the Government delivered by Premier Wen Jiabao at the Third Session of the 10^th National People's Congress, 15 March 2005.

[2] The ten member countries of ASEAN are Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar (Burma), Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

[3] Alan Gyngell, 'Living with the giants', Time Asia, 25 April 2005.

[4] William Tow, 'Stand by your mate', The Diplomat, Oct/Nov 2004, p. 25. See transcript of joint press conference between Prime Minister Howard and President Bush, Washington DC, 19 July 2005. See also text of speech by Chinese President Hu Jintao to Australian Parliament 24 October 2003.

[5] See for example statement by Acting Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Rust Deming, Washington File, EPF307 03/08/00, Text: State Official Deming, 8 March on Asia–Pacific Security Issues. He stated: 'Our interest in maintaining a secure environment to allow economies to develop, trade to grow, and democracy to spread has not diminished...in fact the American strategic, political, and economic stake in East Asia has only increased'.

[6] Frank W Moore, Institute for Defense and Disarmament Studies, 'China's Military Capabilities', June 2000, http://www/comw.org/cmp/fulltext/addschina.html (accessed on 27 October 2005).

[7] Malcolm Cook and Craig Meer, Balancing act: Taiwan's cross-strait challenge, Lowy Institute Paper 06, p. 4.

[8] Peter Jennings, 'Australia's Chinese challenge', Australian Financial Review, 7 October 2005, p. 11.

[9] Anne Wu, 'What China whispers to North Korea', The Washington Quarterly, vol. 28, no. 2, p. 36.

[10] Department of Policy Planning, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, People's Republic of China, China's Foreign Affairs 2005, World Affairs Press, 2005, p. 137.

[11] Christopher Hill, Transcript, 'Hill reports "encouraging signs" at the Six Party talks', Washington File, 29 July 2005.

[12] See for example, C. Mackerras, Submission P54, p. 9.

[13] See paragraph 14.2 of the first part of the committee's report, Senate Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade References Committee, Opportunities and challenges: Australia's relationship with China, November 2005, p. 245.

[14] Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, 1 September 2005, reprinted in China Daily as Full Text of White Paper on Arms Control, 1 September 2005, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/English/document/2005-09/01/content_474248.htm (accessed 17 November 2005).

[15] Chapter 2 of the committee's report tabled in November 2005 traced the opening up of China to the world and its transition from an inward-looking and closed economy to a market-oriented one engaged with the outside world. Senate Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade References Committee, Opportunities and challenges: Australia's relationship with China, November 2005, pp. 7–8.

[16] Chapter 2 of the committee's report tabled in November 2005 discussed the range of problems facing China as the country's economy continues to expand and open to the outside world. Senate Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade References Committee, Opportunities and challenges: Australia's relationship with China, November 2005, pp. 10–29.

[17] See Ambassador Fu Ying, Address to the National Press Club, 28 July 2004, p. 15 and '1.3 Billion? Big Deal', China Daily, 11 January 2006.

[18] Ross Garnaut, Professor of Economics, 'India, China and Australia: Lessons from Different Paths in Economic Reform', The 2004 Sir John Crawford Lecture, National Council of Applied Economic Research, New Delhi, 28 September 2004, p. 17.

[19] David Goodman, Committee Hansard, 29 June 2005, p. 54. He stated: 'The Chinese people, Chinese society, have no problem in dealing with the pluralism that is quite clearly on the way. The problem we are facing from the outside now, particularly in government–to–government relations, is that there is an increasing tension between social and economic change in China and the unwillingness of the people who control the Communist Party at the moment to change along with those trends'.

[20] Garry Woodard, Committee Hansard, 27 June 2005, p. 27. Mr Woodward was Australia's Ambassador to China 1976–1980.

[21] James Cotton, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 7. Professor Cotton is a professor of politics at the Australian Defence Force Academy.

[22] DFAT, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 47.

[23] 'Building harmonious society crucial for China's progress: Hu', People's Daily Online, 27 June 2005, http://english.people.com.cn/200506/27/eng20050627_192495.html, (accessed 20 February 2006).

[24] 'Building harmonious society crucial for China's progress: Hu', People's Daily Online, 27 June 2005, http://english.people.com.cn/200506/27/eng20050627_192495.html, (accessed 20 February 2006).

[25] Her Excellency Madam Fu Ying, Transcript of speech at the National Press Club, 28 July 2004.

[26] Premier Wen Jiabao, Report on the Work of the Government, 5 March 2005.

[27] Premier Wen Jiabao, Report on the Work of the Government, 5 March 2005. See also Senate Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade References Committee, Opportunities and challenges: Australia's relationship with China, November 2005, p. 16.

[28] Robert B. Zoellick, 'Whither China: From Membership to Responsibility?', Remarks to National Committee on U.S.–China Relations, New York City, 21 September 2005.

[29] Zhang Qiyue, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Press Conference, 21 October 2004.

[30] Her Excellency Madam Fu Ying, Speech at Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Canberra, 17 February 2005, http://www.aspi.org.au/pdf/Madame_Fu.pdf (accessed 9 August 2005).

[31] Premier Wen Jiabao, Report on the Work of the Government, Part VII, 5 March 2005.

[32] See the first part of the committee's report. Senate Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade References Committee, Opportunities and challenges: Australia's relationship with China, November 2005, pp. 23–6.

[33] Wayne W. Morrison, 'China's Economic Conditions', CRS Issue Brief for Congress, 26 May 2005. See also, Senate Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade References Committee, Opportunities and challenges: Australia's relationship with China, November 2005, pp. 23–5.

[34] Two researchers from the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology have contended that secure energy supplies, economic growth and the political fortunes of the Chinese government are inextricably linked. They argued that China's access to foreign resources is 'necessary both for continued economic growth and, because growth is the cornerstone of China's social stability, for the Chinese Communist Party'. David Zweig and Bi Jianhai, 'Feeding the Dragon', Australian Financial Review, Reviewed 9 September 2005, p. 1.

[35] Part II, Report on the Implementation of the 2004 Plan for National Economic and Social Development, submitted to the Third Session of the 10th National People's Congress, 5 March 2005.

[36] Her Excellency Madam Fu Ying, Transcript of speech at the National Press Club, 28 July 2004.

[37] Mr JianJun Tu, 'The strategic considerations of the Sino–Saudi oil deal', China Brief, vol. VI, issue 4, 15 February 2006, p. 3.

[38] Part III, section 7, Report on the Implementation of the 2004 Plan for National Economic and Social Development, submitted to the Third Session of the 10th National People's Congress, 5 March 2005 and Report on the Work of the Government, delivered by Premier Wen Jiabao at the Third Session of the 10th National People's Congress, 5 March 2005.

[39] Kerry Dumbaugh, 'China–U.S. Relations: Current Issues and Implications for U.S. Policy', CRS Report for Congress, updated 8 July 2005, p. 13. See also Annual Report to Congress, The Military Power of the People's Republic of China, 2005, Office of the Secretary of Defense, p. 1.

[40] Mr JianJun Tu, 'The strategic considerations of the Sino–Saudi oil deal', China Brief, vol. VI, issue 4, 15 February 2006, p. 3.

[41] See 'China, India and the oil market', Economist, 19 January 2006, http://www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/displayStory.cfm?story_id=5420659&subjectid=381586 (accessed 16 February 2006).

[42] See for example, David M. Lampton, 'Paradigm Lost: the Demise of "Weak China"', The National Interest, Fall 2005, p. 78.

[43] U.S.–China Economic and Security Review Commission, One Hundred and Ninth Congress, First Session, November 2005, p. 146.

[44] U.S.–China Economic and Security Review Commission, One Hundred and Ninth Congress, First Session, November 2005, p. 146.

[45] China's participation in the 'Six-Party' talks provides an example of where China is clearly proud of its work. Thomas J. Christensen wrote: 'the six-party process is particularly important as it relates to China. Government officials and commentators alike in China understandably took special pride in the agreement that was reached. Chinese news articles discussed how the PRC's role in the process was praised around the world. Beijing had played a major leadership role in bringing the joint statement to fruition, and the news media hailed Beijing's newfound diplomatic confidence and influence'. China Leadership Monitor, No. 16, p. 5. See also Foreign Ministry of the People's Republic of China, Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing Gives Year-end Interview to People's Daily, 20 December 2005 and paragraph 9.36 in chapter 9.

[46] Ambassador Wang Yi, 'To keep your Words is Really Good Faith and to Stop the Use of Weapons and Avoid War is Truly Military', Speech delivered at the National Defense Academy of Japan, 2 November 2005.

[47] Ambassador Li Zhaoxing, 'The U.S. Should Not Feel Threatened by China's Emerging Role in International Political and Military Arena', November 2000, http://us.chineseembassy.org/eng/shxx/sggyth/t34779.htm (accessed 25 November 2005).

[48] Full Text of White Paper on Arms Control, 1 September 2005, http://fmprc.gov.cn/eng/zxxx/t209613.htm (accessed 12 February 2006) and also reproduced in China Daily.

[49] 'The Five Principles of Peaceful Co-existence', People's Online Daily, http://english.people.com.cn/200406/28/eng20040628_147763.html (accessed 15 February 2006).

[50] 'Five principles of peaceful coexistence also principles for development: Chinese premier', People's Daily Online, http://english.people.com.cn/200406/28/eng20040628_147790.html (accessed 16 February 2006).

[51] Dr Denny Roy, a Senior Research Fellow at the Asia-Pacific Centre for Security Studies, has attributed China's insistence on reunification in part to political reasoning which holds that 'unity is associated with national strength, and division with weakness. The Chinese nation will not be healthy or happy without unification because this aspiration is deeply ingrained in the hearts of all Chinese, according to PRC commentators'. 'Cross-Strait Economic Relations: Opportunities Outweigh Risks', Asia—Occasional Paper, Pacific Center for Security Studies, April 2004, p. 1.

[52] Section II: China's Basic Policy and Position, Text of the White Paper on Arms Control, China's Endeavours for Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, 1 September 2005.

[53] Section VII: Following the Road of Peaceful Development and Independent Foreign Policy of Peace, Report on the Work of the Government delivered by Premier Wen Jiabao at the Third Session of the Tenth National Peoples' Congress, 5 March 2005.

[54] Dick K. Nanto and Emma Chanlett-Avery, 'The Rise of China and its Effect on Taiwan, Japan and South Korea: U.S. Policy Choices', CRS Report for Congress, 12 April 2005, p. 1; David Shambaugh, 'China Engages Asia', International Security, vol. 29, no. 3, Winter 2004–05, p. 67.

[55] Joseph Nye, 'Soft power and American foreign policy', Political Science Quarterly, Summer 2004, p. 256.

[56] Willy Lam, 'Beijing Launches Multi-pronged Offensive Against Chen Shui-bian', China Brief, vol. 6, Issue 6, 15 March 2006, p. 3.

[57] Embassy of the PRC, Submission P66, pp. 13–14.

[58] There are numerous references and examples taken from speeches and addresses by Chinese representatives that clearly demonstrate the image that these leaders are portraying. See for example, Speech by H.E. Ambassador Yang Jiechi, Asia Society and Council on Foreign Relations, New York, 3 December 2002.

[59] Speech by H.E. Ambassador Yang Jiechi, Asia Society and Council on Foreign Relations, New York, 3 December 2002.

[60] Numerous commentators refer to the uncertainty that surrounds China's long-term strategic intentions. See for example, statement of the Hon. James A. Kelly, Assistant Secretary, U.S. Department of State, Hearing before the Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific of the Committee on International Relations, House of Representatives, 108^th Congress, Second Session, 2 June 2004, p. 7; Shannon Tow, 'Southeast Asia in the Sino–U.S. Strategic Balance', Contemporary Southeast Asia, Singapore, December 2004, vol. 26, Issue 3. Elizabeth Economy, China's Rise in Southeast Asia: Implications for Japan and the United States, an updated version prepared for Japan Focus of an article that appeared in Journal of Contemporary China, August 2005, Japan Focus, 6 October 2005; Robert G. Sutter, 'China's Rise in Asia—Promises, Prospects and Implications for the United States', Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, Occasional Paper Series, February 2005, p. 5; David Shambaugh, 'China engages Asia: Reshaping the Regional Order', International Security, vol. 29, no. 3, Winter 2004–5, p. 67; Chung Min Lee, 'China's Rise, Asia's Dilemma', The National Interest, Fall 2005, p. 89.

[61] Singapore, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Speech by Minister George Yeo at the Annual Conference of the Council of Americas in Washington DC, 3 May 2005.

[62] See for example, Robert G. Sutter, 'China's Rise in Asia—Promises, Prospects and Implications for the United States', Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, Occasional Paper Series, February 2005, p. 4.

[63] U.S. Department of State, 'Whither China: From Membership to Responsibility?', Robert B. Zoellick, Deputy Secretary of State, Remarks to National Committee on U.S.–China Relations, New York City, 21 September 2005.

[64] Robert B. Zoellick, 'Whither China: From Membership to Responsibility?', Remarks to National Committee on U.S.–China Relations, New York City, 21 September 2005. See also Robert G. Sutter, 'China's Rise in Asia—Promises, Prospects and Implications for the United States', Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, Occasional Paper Series, February 2005, p. 5.

[65] See chapter 6, paragraphs 6.31–6.34.

[66] See for example, Hugh De Santis, 'The Dragon and the Tigers: China and Asian Regionalism', World Policy Journal, vol. 22, issue 2, Summer 2005, New York; Elizabeth Economy, China's Rise in Southeast Asia: Implications for Japan and the United States, an updated version prepared for Japan Focus of an article that appeared in Journal of Contemporary China, August 2005, Japan Focus, 6 October 2005; Bruce Vaughn, ' China–Southeast Asia Relations: Trends, Issues, and Implications for the United States, CRS Report for Congress, 8 February 2005, p. 3.

[67] Nakanishi Terumasa, 'China Plays its History Cards', Japan Echo, vol. 32, issue 4, Tokyo, August 2005.

[68] Testimony of Richard Fisher Jr 'China's Military Power: An Assessment from Open Sources', before the House Armed Services Committee, 27 July 2005, http://www.strategycenter.net/printVersion/print_pub.asp?pubID=76 (accessed 18 November 2005).

[69] Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 9.

[70] Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 15.

[71] Professor Bruce Jacobs, Committee Hansard, 27 June 2005, p. 42. Professor Jacobs is Professor of Asian Languages and Studies at Monash University and Director of the Taiwan Research Unit. He appeared in a private capacity.

[72] Professor Bruce Jacobs, Committee Hansard, 27 June 2005, p. 43.

[73] Full Text of White Paper on Arms Control, 1 September 2005, http://fmprc.gov.cn/eng/zxxx/t209613.htm (accessed 12 February 2006) and also reproduced in China Daily and Section VII: Following the Road of Peaceful Development and Independent Foreign Policy of Peace, Report on the Work of the Government delivered by Premier Wen Jiabao at the Third Session of the Tenth National Peoples' Congress, 5 March 2005.

[74] Mr Zhou Wenzhong, 'The Future of China–U.S. Relations', Feature address to the Asia Society, 22 September 2005.

[75] Premier Wen Jiabao, 'Strengthening Cooperation for Mutual Benefit and a Win-Win Result', Speech given at the 8^th ASEAN+3 Summit in Vientiane, 29 November 2004.

[76] H.E. Ong Keng Yong, Secretary-General of ASEAN, Keynote address at the Chinese Business Leaders Summit, Global Entrepolis@Singapore 2004, 11 October 2004.

[77] Many experts have made this observation. See for example, Tommy Koh, Chairman of Institute of Policy Studies, Singapore, and Ambassador to the United States, 1984–1990, 'Three Messages for America from an Asian Who Loves America', Inaugural Utstarcom Asian Leadership Lecture Series & Distinguished Southeast Asian Lecture Services, 29 September 2005, p. 8. Statement by Ruan Zongze, Deputy Director of China Institute of International Studies, 'China adopts more pragmatic attitude in regional, international affairs', People's Daily Online, 5 November 2005.

[78] Rosemary Foot, 'China's Regional Activism: Leadership, Leverage, and Protection', Global Change, Peace and Security, vol 17, no. 2, June 2005, p. 149.

[79] 'East Asia should embrace others', Quoted in China Daily, 15 December 2005, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-12/15/content_503449.htm (accessed 24 February 2006).

[80] Kuik Cheng-Chwee, 'Multilateralism in China's ASEAN Policy: its Evolution, Characteristics, and Aspiration', Contemporary Southeast Asia, vol. 27, no. 1, p. 114.

[81] Centre for Strategic and International Studies, 'China and the idea of an East Asia Community', Seminar, Jakarta.

[82] The United States–Indonesia Society, USINDO Report, 7 November 2003.

[83] For example see, Dr Brendan Taylor, paragraph 2.42.

[84] Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 40.

[85] Part VII, Report on the Work of the Government delivered by Premier Wen Jiabao at the Third Session of the 10^th National People's Congress, 15 March 2005.

[86] Madame Fu Ying, Ambassador of P.R. China, 'China's Role in Regional and Global Security', Speech at ASPI, Canberra, 17 February 2005, p. 1.

[87] See comments by H.E.Ong Keng Yong, Secretary General of ASEAN, 'Developing ASEAN-China Relations: Realities and Prospects', Keynote address at the ASEAN–China Forum 2004, Singapore, 23 June 2004.

[88] Koong Pai Ching, 'Southeast Asian Countries' Perceptions of China's Military Modernisation', SIGUR Center Asia Papers, No. 5, 1999, http://www.gwu.edu/~sigur/pubs/SCAP5-Ching.pdf (accessed 20 February 2006).

[89] Catharin Dalpino and Juo-yu Lin, 'China and Southeast Asia: The Difference of a Decade', Brookings Northeast Asia Survey, 2002–03, p. 78.

[90] Catharin Dalpino and Juo-yu Lin, 'China and Southeast Asia: The Difference of a Decade', Brookings Northeast Asia Survey, 2002–03, p. 78. See also Hadi Soesastro, The United States–Indonesia Society, USINDO Report, 7 November 2003.

[91] See paragraphs 8.31–8.33.

[92] See for example, Koong Pai Ching, Associate Research Fellow, Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, Singapore, 'Southeast Asian Countries' Perceptions of China's Military Modernization', Conference Paper, The SIGUR Center, http://www.gwu.edu/~sigur/publications/koong.htm (accessed 19 December 2005). See also Statement of Catherin E. Dalpino, Adjunct Professor, Southeast Asian Studies, Georgetown University and the George Washington University,, before the United States Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 7 June 2005 and Statement by Christopher R. Hill, Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, 7 June 2005.

[93] Joint Statement of the Meeting of Heads of State/Government of the Member States of ASEAN and the President of the People's Republic of China, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 16 December 1997.

[94] Submission P24, p. 5.

[95] Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Singapore, Speech by Minister of State Raymond Lim at the Fourth Singapore International Foundation Overseas Conference, 28 February 2004, Shanghai.

[96] Embassy of the PRC, 'Li Zhaoxing says that President Hu Jintao's Tour to three Southeast Asian Countries Made Fruitful Achievements', http://ee.chineseembassy.org/eng/dtxw/t194137.htm (accessed 25 November 2005).

[97] Embassy of the PRC, 'Li Zhaoxing says that President Hu Jintao's Tour to three Southeast Asian Countries Made Fruitful Achievements', http://ee.chineseembassy.org/eng/dtxw/t194137.htm (accessed 25 November 2005).

[98] Joint Statement between the Republic of Indonesia and the People's Republic of China, 30 July 2005, People's Daily Online, http://english.people.com.cn/200507/30/eng20050730_199170.html, (accessed 20 February 2006).

[99] The ten member countries of ASEAN are Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar (Burma), Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

[100] Rosemary Foot, 'China's Regional Activism: Leadership, Leverage, and Protection', Global Change, Peace and Security, vol. 17, no. 2, June 2005, p. 149.

[101] Premier Wen Jiabao, Quoted in China Daily, 'Beijing against exclusive bloc in East Asia', 13 December 2005, http://english.people.com.cn/200512/13/eng20051213_227590.html (accessed 24 February 2006).

[102] 'Wen: Growth poses no threat to neighbours', China Daily, 12 December 2005, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-12/12/content_502728.htm, (accessed 24 February 2006).

[103] Embassy of the PRC, Foreign Ministry Spokesman Qin Gang's Press Conference on 1 December 2005, http://www.china-embassy.org/eng/fyrth/t224426.htm (accessed 24 February 2006).

[104] H.E. Ong Keng Yong, Secretary General of ASEAN, 'Developing ASEAN–China Relations: Realities and Prospects', Keynote address at the ASEAN–China Forum 2004, Singapore, 23 June 2004.

[105] H.E. Ong Keng Yong, Secretary General of ASEAN, 'Developing ASEAN–China Relations: Realities and Prospects', Keynote address at the ASEAN–China Forum 2004, Singapore, 23 June 2004.

[106] Joint Statement of the Meeting of Heads of State/Government of the Member States of ASEAN and the President of the People's Republic of China, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 16 December 1997.

[107] Joint Statement of the Meeting of Heads of State/Government of the Member States of ASEAN and the President of the People's Republic of China, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 16 December 1997.

[108] Press Statement by the Chairman of the 8^th ASEAN Summit and the 6^th ASEAN + 3 Summit and the ASEA–China Summit, Phnom Penh, Cambodia, 4 November 2002.

[109] Co-Chairman Press Statement of the ASEAN–China Eminent Persons Group, Kuala Lumpur, 9 December 2005.

[110] Garry Woodard, Committee Hansard, 27 June 2005, p. 27.

[111] Singapore Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Remarks by Singapore Minister for Foreign Affairs, George Yeo, Parliament on the Strategic Overview, 4 March 2005.

[112] Stuart Harris, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 19.

[113] William Tow, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 21.

[114] Welcome remarks by H.E. Ong Keng Yong, Secretary General of ASEAN, at the 2^nd China–ASEAN Business and Investment, Nanning, China, 19 October 2005; 'Wen: Growth poses no threat to neighbours', China Daily, 12 December 2005.

[115] Jose Tongzon, 'ASEAN–China Free Trade Area: A Bane or Boon for ASEAN Countries', World Economy, February 2005, vol. 28 (2), p. 191.

[116] ASEAN, Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Co-operation between the Association of South East Asian Nations and the People's Republic of China, 4 November 2002.

[117] ASEAN, Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Co-operation between the Association of South East Asian Nations and the People's Republic of China, 4 November 2002.

[118] H. E. Ong Keng Yong, Secretary-General of ASEAN, The Chinese Business Leaders Summit Global Entrepolis, Singapore 2004, Keynote address, 11 October 2004.

[119] Welcome remarks by H. E. Ong Keng Yong, Secretary General of ASEAN, at the 2^nd China–ASEAN Business and Investment, Nanning, China, 19 October 2005.

[120] Welcome remarks by H. E. Ong Keng Yong, Secretary General of ASEAN, at the 2^nd China–ASEAN Business and Investment, Nanning, China, 19 October 2005.

[121] R. Little and J. Flowers, Submission P26, p. 9.

[122] Joint Statement of the Meeting of Heads of State/Government of the Member States of ASEAN and the President of the People's Republic of China, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 16 December 1997.

[123] Chairman of the 8^th ASEAN Summit, the 6^th ASEAN+3 Summit and the ASEAN–China Summit, Cambodia, 4 November 2002.

[124] Chairman's Statement of the 8^th ASEAN + 3 Summit Vientiane, 29 November 2004.

[125] Chairman's Statement of the 8^th ASEAN + 3 Summit Vientiane, 29 November 2004.

[126] 'Towards an Integrated East Asia Community', Keynote Address by YAB dato' Seri Abdullah HJ Ahmad Badawi, Prime Minister of Malaysia, Second East Asia Forum, Kuala Lumpur, 6 December 2004.

[127] 'Towards an Integrated East Asia Community', Keynote Address by YAB dato' Seri Abdullah HJ Ahmad Badawi, Prime Minister of Malaysia, Second East Asia Forum, Kuala Lumpur, 6 December 2004.

[128] 'Strengthening Cooperation for Mutual Benefit and a Win-Win Result', Speech by Premier Wen Jiabao at the 8^th ASEAN+3 Summit in Vientiane, 29 November 2004.

[129] Embassy of the PRC, Foreign Ministry Spokesman Qin Gang's Press Conference on 6 December 2005, http://www.china-embassy.org/eng/fyrth/t225189.htm (accessed 24 February 2006).

[130] See Chairman's statement: the Tenth ASEAN Regional Forum Ministerial Meeting, Phnom Penh, Cambodia, 18 June 2003.

[131] Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Overview, http://www.aseansec.org/92.htm (accessed 29 November 2005).

[132] See Chairman's statement: the Tenth ASEAN Regional Forum Ministerial Meeting, Phnom Penh, Cambodia, 18 June 2003.

[133] See Section IV, Text of White Paper on Arms Control, 1 September 2005.

[134] 'Wen: More opportunities than challenges', China Daily, 6 November 2004, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-11/06/content_389025.htm (accessed 24 February 2006).

[135] Rosemary Foot, 'China's Regional Activism: Leadership, Leverage, and Protection', Global Change, Peace and Security, volume 17 no. 2, June 2005, p. 149.

[136] See Chairman's statement: the Tenth ASEAN Regional Forum Ministerial Meeting, Phnom Penh, Cambodia, 18 June 2003.

[137] ASEAN, 2004–2005 ASEAN Annual Report, pp. 14–15.

[138] ASEAN, 2004–2005 ASEAN Annual Report, pp. 14–15.

[139] Professor Paul Dibb, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 14.

[140] Professor Stuart Harris, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 19.

[141] Mr Garry Woodard, Committee Hansard, 27 June 2005, p. 27.

[142] The members are: Australia; Brunei Darussalam; Canada; Chile; People's Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; Indonesia; Japan; Republic of Korea; Malaysia; Mexico; New Zealand; Papua New Guinea; Peru; Philippines; Russia; Singapore, Chinese Taipei; Thailand; United States; Vietnam.

[143] Senate Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade References Committee, Australia and APEC: A review of Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation, July 2000.

[144] Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 41.

[145] Prime Minister the Hon John Howard MP, Transcript, Address to the Asia Society Lunch, The Asia Society, New York City, 12 September 2005.

[146] Comment in the media in particular question the effectiveness of APEC. See for example, The China Post, 'Action or just talk, APEC meetings will go on despite detractors', 20 November 2005.

[147] Hadi Soesastro, Executive Director of Jakarta's Center for Strategic and International Studies, USINDO Report, 7 November 2003.

[148] Prime Minister the Hon. John Howard MP, Transcript, 'Sunday Sunrise', 21 November 2004.

[149] Lowy Institute for International Policy, 'How to save APEC', Policy Brief, October 2005, p. 4.

[150] Professor Paul Dibb, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 20.

[151] Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 41.

[152] Senate Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade References Committee, Australia and APEC: A review of Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation, July 2000, p. 41.

[153] For a detailed account of the EAEC see Report of the Senate Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade References Committee, Australia and APEC: A review of Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation, July 2000, pp. 202–4.

[154] Final Report of the East Asia Study Group, ASEAN+3 Summit, Phnom Penh, 4 November 2002.

[155] Prime Minister of Malaysia, 'Towards an Integrated East Asia Community', Keynote Address at the Second East Asia Forum, Kuala Lumpur, 6 December 2004.

[156] Chairman's Statement of the 11^th ASEAN Summit, 'One Vision, One Identity, One Community', 12 December 2005.

[157] China Daily, 'Beijing against exclusive bloc in East Asia', 13 December 2005, http://english.people.com.cn/200512/13/eng20051213_227590.html (accessed 24 February 2006).

[158] China Daily, 'Beijing against exclusive bloc in East Asia', 13 December 2005, http://english.people.com.cn/200512/13/eng20051213_227590.html (accessed 24 February 2006).

[159] Foreign Ministry Spokesman Qin Gang's Press Conference on 1 December 2005, http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/xwfw/s2510/t224426.htm (accessed 14 December 2005).

[160] Foreign Ministry Spokesman Qin Gang's Press Conference on 6 December 2005, http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/xwfw/s2510/t224426.htm (accessed 14 December 2005).

[161] Senate Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade References Committee, Australia and APEC: A review of Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation, July 2000.

[162] The Hon Alexander Downer MP, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Australia, Transcript, ABC Radio National Interview, 8 April 2005.

[163] Prime Minister the Hon. John Howard MP, Transcript, Press Conference, Imperial Hotel, Tokyo, 20 April 2005.

[164] The Hon. Alexander Downer MP, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Australia, Transcript, 'Doorstop—ITECC, Vientiane Laos, 29 July 2005.

[165] The Hon. Alexander Downer MP, Minister for Foreign Affairs, ABC AM, 27 July 2005.

[166] The Hon. Alexander Downer, MP, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Australia, Transcript, ABC Radio National Interview, 8 April 2005; Transcript of the Prime Minister, the Hon John Howard MP Joint Press Conference Imperial Hotel, Tokyo, 20 April 2005; Transcript of the Prime Minister, the Hon John Howard MP Joint Press Conference with the Vietnamese Prime Minister, Mr Khai, Parliament House, Canberra, 5 May 2005.

[167] Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Singapore, Remarks by Singapore Minister for Foreign Affairs, George Yeo in Parliament on the Strategic Overview, 4 March 2005.

[168] Embassy of the People's Republic of China, 'Wen Jiabao holds talks with Australian Prime Minister John Howard', 18 April 2005.

[169] Prime Minister the Hon John Howard MP, Transcript, Doorstop interview, Great Hall of the People, Beijing, China, 19 April 2005.

[170] Prime Minister the Hon John Howard MP, Transcript, Doorstop interview, Great Hall of the People, Beijing, China, 19 April 2005.

[171] Foreign Ministry Spokesman Qin Gang's Press Conference on 6 December 2005, http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/xwfw/s2510/t225189.htm (accessed 14 December 2005).

[172] Goh Chok Tong, 15^th Asian Corporate Conference, 'Southeast Asia Rising: A Region Booming among Asia's Economic Giants', 9 June 2005.

[173] See for example, 'Australia signs ASEAN friendship pact', China Daily, 10 December 2005 and 'Step closer to a unified Asia', China Daily, 12 December 2005.

[174] ASEAN Secretariat, 'Australia Ready to Sign ASEAN Peace Pact: Foreign Minister', 27 June 2005.

[175] ARF Unit, ASEAN Secretariat, Matrix of ASEAN Regional Forum Decisions and their Status 1994–2005, May 2005.

[176] ARF Unit, ASEAN Secretariat, Matrix of ASEAN Regional Forum Decisions and their Status 1994–2005, May 2005.

[177] 'Towards an Integrated East Asia Community', Keynote Address by YAB dato' Seri Abdullah HJ Ahmad Badawi, Prime Minister of Malaysia, Second East Asia Forum, Kuala Lumpur, 6 December 2004.

[178] Professor Jean Garrison, 'China's Prudent Cultivation of "Soft" Power and Implications for US policy in East Asia', Asian Affairs, Spring 2005, p. 26.

[179] The Hon Alexander Downer, MP, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Transcript, Doorstop interview, Vientiane Laos, 27 July 2005.

[180] Chairman's Statement of the First East Asia Summit, Kuala Lumpur, 14 December 2005; Kuala Lumpur Declaration on the East Asia Summit, 14 December 2005.

[181] Connie Levett and Cynthia Banham, 'East Asia faces tricky task of harnessing the dragon', Sydney Morning Herald, 30 July 2005, p. 18.

[182] Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 17.

[183] Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 20.

[184] Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 20.

[185] Prime Minister the Hon John Howard MP, Transcript, Address to the Asia Society Lunch, The Asia Society, New York City, 12 September 2005, p.17.

[186] Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005.

[187] Prime Minister the Hon John Howard MP, Transcript, Doorstop Interview, Regent Hotel, Kuala Lumpur, 13 December 2005.

[188] Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 40.

[189] Reg Little and James Flowers, Submission P26, p. 5.

[190] Reg Little and James Flowers, Submission P26, p. 5.

[191] Speech by H.E. Ambassador Yang Jiechi at a Breakfast Co-hosted by the Asia Society and Council on Foreign Relations, 3 December 2002.

[192] 'Zero-sum rivalry' refers to a situation in which greater influence gained by one superpower will lead to a corresponding reduction in the influence of the other.

[193] One exception is the Taiwan Strait crisis in 1995–96.

[194] Dr Frank Frost, 'Directions in China's foreign relations—implications for East Asia and Australia', Parliamentary Library Research Brief, No. 9, 2005–06, p. 22.

[195] Ailenn San Pablo-Baviera, 'The China factor in US alliances in East Asia and the Asia Pacific', Australian Journal of International Affairs, vol. 57, no. 2, July 2003, p. 340.

[196] Jia Qingguo, 'The impact of 9–11 on Sino–U.S. relations: a preliminary assessment', International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, volume 3 (2003), p. 171.

[197] Jia Qingguo, 'The impact of 9–11 on Sino-US relations: a preliminary assessment', International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, volume 3 (2003), p. 164.

[198] Professor Colin Mackerras, Submission P54, pp. 21–22.

[199] Jia Qingguo, 'The impact of 9–11 on Sino-US relations: a preliminary assessment', International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, volume 3 (2003), p. 172.

[200] Dr Frank Frost, 'Directions in China's foreign relations – implications for East Asia and Australia', Parliamentary Library Research Brief, no. 9, 2005–06, p. 22.

[201] The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, September 2002, p. 28.

[202] PRC Embassy, Submission P66, p. 13.

[203] Dr Peter Van Ness, 'China's Response to the Bush Doctrine', World Policy Journal, Winter 2004–05, p. 42.

[204] PRC Embassy, Submission P66, p. 13.

[205] Her Excellency Madam Fu Ying, Speech at Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Canberra, 17 February 2005, http://www.aspi.org.au/pdf/Madame_Fu.pdf, (accessed 9 August 2005).

[206] Her Excellency Madam Fu Ying, Speech at Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Canberra, 17 February 2005, http://www.aspi.org.au/pdf/Madame_Fu.pdf, (accessed 9 August 2005).

[207] A recent article by political scientist David Lampton differentiated "confrontationalists"—'those who see the future relationship with Beijing in conflict-laden terms—from "integrationists"—those who do not see international relations as a zero-sum game. "Integrationists" believe China can become a regional partner of the U.S. with mutually beneficial consequences: "confrontationalists" identify China as a regional competitor whose rise will injure U.S. interests. David Lampton, 'Paradigm lost: The Demise of "Weak China"', The National Interest, Fall 2005, p. 76.

[208] Text of speech by Robert Zoellick, 21 September 2005, http://usembassy-australia.state.gov/hyper/2005/0922/epf403.htm (accessed 10 November 2005).

[209] Dr Henry Kissinger, 'China: Containment Won't Work', Washington Post, 13 June 2005.

[210] Dr Henry Kissinger, 'China: Containment Won't Work', Washington Post, 13 June 2005.

[211] Garry Woodard, Committee Hansard, 27 June 2005, p. 33.

[212] The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, September 2002, p. 28.

[213] Text of speech by Robert Zoellick, 21 September 2005, http://usembassy-australia.state.gov/hyper/2005/0922/epf403.htm (accessed 10 November 2005).

[214] David Lampton, 'Paradigm lost: The Demise of "Weak China"', The National Interest, Fall 2005, p. 75.

[215] See U.S.–China Economic and Security Review Commission, '2005 Report to Congress of the U.S.–China Economic and Security Review Commission', One Hundredth and Ninth Congress, First Session, November 2005.

[216] Senate Foreign Affairs Defence and Trade Committee, Opportunities and challenges: Australia's relationship with China, November 2005, Executive Summary.

[217] Robert B. Zoellick, 'Whither China: From Membership to Responsibility?', Remarks to National Committee on U.S.–China Relations, New York City, 21 September 2005.

[218] U.S.–China Economic and Security Review Commission, 2005 Report to Congress of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, One Hundredth and Ninth Congress, First Session, November 2005, p. 2.

[219] U.S.–China Economic and Security Review Commission, 2005 Report to Congress of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, One Hundredth and Ninth Congress, First Session, November 2005, p. 4.

[220] United States Trade Representative, 2004 Report to Congress on China's WTO Compliance, 11 December 2004, p. 5.

[221] Kerry Dumbaugh, 'China-US Relations: Current Issues and Implications for US Policy', CRS Report for Congress, updated 8 July 2005, p. 13. This report noted that Chinese negotiators signed significant oil deals with Iran in 2004 and that China has also targeted resource-rich African nations such as Sudan and Angola for energy-related development. See also the written statement of Randall G. Schriver before the United States Senate Committee for Foreign Relations, 26 July 2005. In testimony before the United States Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Mikkal E. Herberg gave some examples of China's involvement with problem states—'In the case of Sudan and Iran, China's involvement is helping to undermine U.S. sanctions (although China is among a number of countries doing so) and is also complicating U.S. efforts in the United Nations. For example, China is the prime roadblock to taking Iran to the Security Council for sanctions over its nuclear program. Efforts to sanction Sudan for its human rights violations in the Darfur region are also stymied by China's opposition.' 7 June 2005, p. 11.

[222] Statement of Christopher R. Hill, Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, 'Emergence of China in the Asia-Pacific: Economic and Security Consequences for the United States', 7 June 2005, p. 5.

[223] U.S.–China Economic and Security Review Commission, 2005 Report to Congress of the U.S.–China Economic and Security Review Commission, One Hundredth and Ninth Congress, First Session, November 2005, p. 164.

[224] U.S.–China Economic and Security Review Commission, 2005 Report to Congress of the U.S.–China Economic and Security Review Commission, One Hundredth and Ninth Congress, First Session, November 2005, pp. 9–13.

[225] Robert B. Zoellick, 'Whither China: From Membership to Responsibility?', Remarks to National Committee on U.S.–China Relations, New York City, 21 September 2005.

[226] Robert B. Zoellick, 'Whither China: From Membership to Responsibility?', Remarks to National Committee on U.S.–China Relations, New York City, 21 September 2005.

[227] Drew Thompson, 'China's global strategy for energy, security, and diplomacy', The Jamestown Foundation China Brief, volume 5, issue 7, 29 March 2005, http://www.jamestown.org/publications_details.php?volume_id=408&issue_id=3280&article_id=2369493, (accessed 8 November 2005).

[228] Joe Carroll, 'CNOOC may look to buy other U.S. energy assets', Australian Financial Review, 22 July 2005, p. 27.

[229] Office of the Secretary of Defense, Annual Report to Congress: The Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2005, p. 12.

[230] See for example, Testimony of Mikkal E. Herberg, the National Bureau of Asian Research, Seattle, Washington, United States Committee on Foreign Relations, 7 June 2005.

[231] United States Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Testimony of Mikkal E. Herberg, the National Bureau of Asian Research, Seattle, Washington, 'The Emergence of China Throughout Asia: Security and Economic Consequences for the U.S.', 7 June 2005, p. 10.

[232] Dr Peter Van Ness, 'China's Response to the Bush Doctrine', World Policy Journal, p. 41.

[233] Dr Peter Van Ness, 'China's Response to the Bush Doctrine', World Policy Journal, p. 41.

[234] Ailenn San Pablo-Baviera, 'The China factor in US alliances in East Asia and the Asia Pacific', Australian Journal of International Affairs, vol. 57, no. 2, July 2003, pp. 342–343.

[235] Dr Peter Van Ness, 'China's Response to the Bush Doctrine', World Policy Journal, p. 43.

[236] Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, 'Vice Foreign Minister Dai Bingguo Holds Talks with US Deputy Secretary of State Zoellick', 25 January 2006, http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/zxxx/t233112.htm (accessed 23 February 2006).

[237] See opening quotation and footnote 1 to this chapter.

[238] The committee notes China's recent decision to revalue the yuan and delink it from the U.S. dollar.

[239] Council on Foreign Relations, Article preview, Joseph S. Nye Jr, from Foreign Affairs, July–August 1995.

[240] See for example statement by Acting Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Rust Deming, Washington File, EPF307 03/08/00, Text: State Official Deming, 8 March on Asia–Pacific Security Issues. He stated: 'Our interest in maintaining a secure environment to allow economies to develop, trade to grow, and democracy to spread has not diminished...in fact the American strategic, political, and economic stake in East Asia has only increased'.

[241] For example see testimony of the Hon James A. Kelly, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, U.S. Department of State, before the Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific of the Committee on International Relations, House of Representatives, 108^th Congress, Second Session, 2 June 2004, pp. 8 and 11.

[242] Robert B. Zoellick, Deputy Secretary of State, 'Wither China: From Membership to Responsibility', Remarks to National Committee on U.S.–China Relations, New York City, 21 September 2005. See also statement by Hon. James A. Kelly, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, U.S. Department of State, before the Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific of the Committee on International Relations, House of Representatives, 108^th Congress, Second Session, 2 June 2004, p. 8.

[243] See for example, Dana R. Dillon and John J. Tkacik, 'China and ASEAN: Endangered American Primacy in Southeast Asia', Backgrounder no. 1886, The Heritage Foundation, 19 October 2005. They recommended that 'the U.S. must redouble its political, economic, and security efforts in Southeast Asia to thwart the Chinese juggernaut'. See also, Rizal Sukma, 'US–Southeast Asia after the Crisis: the Security Dimension, Background Paper prepared for the Asia Foundation's Workshop on America's Role in Asia, Bangkok, 22–24 March 2000.

[244] ASEAN Secretariat, ASEAN–US Dialogue, http:www.aseansec.org/7728.htm (accessed 13 December 2005).

[245] See for example, the statement by the then United States Secretary of State, Colin Powell, in Hanoi, Vietnam, 26 July 2001. http:www.aseansec.org/7848.htm accessed 13 December 2005 and statement by Acting Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Rust Deming, Washington File, EPF307 03/08/00, Text: State Official Deming, 8 March on Asia–Pacific Security Issues.

[246] Testimony of the Hon James A. Kelly, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, U.S. Department of State, before the Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific of the Committee on International Relations, House of Representatives, 108^th Congress, Second Session, 2 June 2004, p. 8.

[247] 'ASEAN–US Relations: Challenges', Goh Chok Tong, Prime Minister of Singapore, Keynote speech at the ASEAN/United States Partnership Conference, New York, 7 September 2000, http://www.aseansec.org/2918.htm (accessed 13 December 2005).

[248] Robert G. Sutter, 'China's Rise in Asia—Promises, Prospects and Implications for the United States', Asia–Pacific Center for Security Studies, Occasional Paper Series, February 2005, p. 6. He stated that 'a number of authoritative commentators have expressed concern over a perceived decline in US influence in Asia on account of US preoccupations elsewhere, military assertiveness, and poor diplomacy, and a concurrent rise of Chinese influence'.

[249] 'Creating a Better Understanding of ASEAN–US Relations', Statement by the Hon Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, Asia Society Programme, New York, 15 September 2005.

[250] 'Creating a Better Understanding of ASEAN–US Relations', Statement by the Hon Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, Asia Society Programme, New York, 15 September 2005.

[251] 'Creating a Better Understanding of ASEAN–US Relations', Statement by the Hon Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, Asia Society Programme, New York, 15 September 2005.

[252] ASEAN Secretariat, ASEAN–US Dialogue, http:www.aseansec.org/7728.htm (accessed 13 December 2005).

[253] Statement of the Hon. Edward Masters, Co-Chairman of the U.S.–Indonesia Society, hearing before the Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific of the Committee on International Relations, House of Representatives, 108^th Congress, Second Session, 17 March 2004, p. 70. See also comments by the Hon. James A. Leach, Chairman of the Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific of the Committee on International Relations, House of Representatives, 108^th Congress, Second Session, 2 June 2004, p. 1. He noted the 'sadness and in some cases anger in what many of America's friends in the region view as mistakes in United States policies in Iraq and the Middle East'.

[254] Dov S. Zakheim, 'The American Strategic Position in East Asia', keynote address to the FPRI conference on 'Flashpoints in East Asia', 12 May 2000. See also comments by Harry Harding, Dean of the Elliott School of International Affairs, 'China as a Liberal Power', USINDO Report, 7 November 2003. He stated that the U.S. 'is viewed as acting unilaterally, as becoming more protectionist and as obsessed with the problem of international terrorism'.

[255] See for example, Dana R. Dillon and John J. Tkacik, 'China and ASEAN: Endangered American Primacy in Southeast Asia', Backgrounder, no. 1886, The Heritage Foundation, 19 October 2005 and ASEAN News Network, 15 November 2005.

[256] See for example, Statement of Catharin E. Dalpino, Adjunct Professor, Southeast Asian Studies, Georgetown University and the George Washington University, United States Senate, Committee on Foreign Relations, 7 June 2005, p, 7. The Asia Foundation recommended that: 'the U.S. needs to revamp its public diplomacy in Southeast Asia in order to redress the serious deterioration in the public support for the U.S. and its policies', Summary of Findings/Recommendations of the Asian Working Group.

[257] See for example, Testimony, David M. Lampton, Dean of Faculty and Director of China Studies, Johns Hopkins Nitze School of Advanced International Studies and Director of Chinese Studies, The Nixon Center, prepared for the United States Committee on Foreign Relations, 7 June 2005; Statement of Catharin E. Dalpino, Adjunct Professor, Southeast Asian Studies, Georgetown University and the George Washington University, United States Senate, Committee on Foreign Relations, 7 June 2005, p. 7; Dana R. Dillion and John J. Tkacik, Jr, 'China and ASEAN: Endangered American Primacy in Southeast Asia', Backgrounder, no. 1886, The Heritage Foundation, 19 October 2005; US–ASEAN Business Council Inc, ASEAN and its importance to the United States of America, the Urgent need to Look to the Future while Building on the Past, February 2002.

[258] James Castle, 'China's economic surge is an opportunity, not a threat', USINDO Report, 7 November 2003.

[259] The International Institute for Strategic Studies, 'China, America and Southeast Asia', IISS Strategic Comments, vol. 11, issue 1, February 2005. See also, Robert G. Sutter, 'China's Rise in Asia—Promises, Prospects and Implications for the United States', Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, Occasional Paper Series, February 2005, p. 6.

[260] Axel Berkofsky, 'China's Asian Ambitions', Far Eastern Economic Review, July 2005, p. 22.

[261] The Pew Global Project Attitudes, American Character Gets Mixed Reviews: U.S. Image Up Slightly, But Still Negative, 23 June 2005, pp. 2, 11. See also Jean A. Garrison, 'China's Prudent Cultivation of 'Soft' Power and Implications for U.S. Policy in East Asia', Asian Affairs, An American Review, Washington, Spring, vol. 32, issue 1, Spring 2005, pp. 25–30. See also, Robert G. Sutter, 'China's Rise in Asia—Promises, Prospects and Implications for the United States', Asia–Pacific Center for Security Studies, Occasional Paper Series, February 2005, p. 7. Mr Sutter noted that the U.S. response to the tsunami 'underlined the kinds of options the US can follow to secure influence in Asia'.

[262] Goh Chok Tong, 15^th Asian Corporate Conference, 'Southeast Asia Rising: A Region Booming among Asia's Economic Giants', 9 June 2005.

[263] Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong, 'East Asia after Iraq', Keynote address, Asia Society, Washington Center Gala Dinner, 7 May 2003.

[264] Goh Chok Tong, 15^th Asian Corporate Conference, 'Southeast Asia Rising: A Region Booming among Asia's Economic Giants', 9 June 2005.

[265] The International Institute for Strategic Studies, 'China, America and Southeast Asia', vol 11, issue 1, February 2005. See also the Asia Foundation, 'Key findings, America's role in Asia'.

[266] Eric Heginbotham, 'Getting Realism: U.S. (and China) Policy Reconceived', The National Interest, no. 69, Fall 2002, Washington D.C. See also Dana R. Dillon and John J. Tkacik, 'China and ASEAN: Endangered American Primacy in Southeast Asia', Backgrounder, no. 1886, The Heritage Foundation, 19 October 2005.

[267] Professor Paul Dibb, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 20.

[268] See for example, Axel Berkofsky, 'China's Asian Ambitions', Far Eastern Economic Review, vol. 168, issue 7, Hong Kong, July/August 2005.

[269] Drew Thompson, 'China's Global Strategy for Energy, Security, and Diplomacy', China Brief, vol. 5, issue 7, The Jamestown Foundation, 29 March 2005. Mr Thompson is Assistant Director at the Freeman Chair in China Studies, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Washington D.C.

[270] US Department of State, Office of the Spokesman, Interview, Deputy Secretary of State, Richard L. Armitage with Takao Hishinuma of Yomiuri Shimbun, 30 November 2004. International Information Programs, USINFO.State .Gov.

[271] 'Panelists Urge Japan, China to Pursue Dialogue', Nikkei Net Interactive, 27 May 2005.

[272] Dr Peter Van Ness, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 12.

[273] Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 13.

[274] Prepared statement of the Hon. James A. Kelly, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, U.S. Department of State, Hearing before the Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific of the Committee on International Relations, House of Representatives, 108^th Congress, Second Session, 'U.S. Policy in East Asia and the Pacific, 2 June 2004, p. 14.

[275] Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Singapore, Remarks by Singapore Minister for Foreign Affairs, George Yeo, in Parliament on Strategic Overview, 4 March 2005.

[276] Dr Peter Van Ness, Submission P22, p. 1.

[277] Statement of Dr Richard J. Ellings, President, National Bureau of Asian Research, The Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific of the Committee on International Relations, House of Representatives, 108^th Congress, Second Session, 17 March 2004, p. 14.

[278] Professor Chung Min Lee, 'China's Rise, Asia's Dilemma', The National Interest, Fall 2005, pp. 93–94.

[279] Dr Ron Huisken, 'The Future of the US Military Presence in East Asia', updated version of a paper first prepared for a conference sponsored by the U.S. Department of State, Washington D.C., 9 October 2003, the Australian National University, 2004, pp. 6 and 10.

[280] Professor David M. Lampton, Dean of the Faculty and Director of China Studies, Johns Hopkins Nitze School of Advanced International Studies and Director of Chinese Studies, the Nixon Center, 'What Growing Chinese Power Means for America'. Prepared for United States Senate Committee on Foreign Relations hearing, 7 June 2005.

[281] Mr Peter Jennings, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 17.

[282] Alan Gyngell, 'Living with the giants', Time International (South Pacific ed.), issue 16, New York, p. 27 and Time Asia, 25 April 2005.

[283] Professor Hugh White, 'Howard's Asian balancing act', the Age, 13 April 2005, p. 25.

[284] Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, 'Advancing the National Interest', Foreign and Trade Policy White Paper, Canberra, 2003, p. 80.

[285] The Hon. John Howard MP, Transcript of address to the Lowy Institute for International Policy, 'Australia in the World', Westin Hotel, Sydney, 31 March 2005.

[286] The Hon. John Howard MP, Transcript of address to the Lowy Institute for International Policy, 'Australia in the World', Westin Hotel, Sydney, 31 March 2005.

[287] See Professor Hugh White, 'Howard's Asian balancing act', the Age, 13 April 2005, p. 25.

[288] Professor Hugh White, 'Howard's Asian balancing act', the Age, 13 April 2005, p. 25.

[289] Professor Hugh White, 'Torn between the panda and Uncle Sam', the Age, 23 March 2005, p. 15.

[290] Professor Hugh White, 'Torn between the panda and Uncle Sam', the Age, 23 March 2005, p. 15.

[291] Professor Bill Tow, 'Stand by your mate', The Diplomat, Oct/Nov 2004, p. 25.

[292] Her Excellency Madam Fu Ying, Transcript of speech at Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Canberra, 17 February 2005, http://www.aspi.org.au/pdf/Madame_Fu.pdf (accessed 9 August 2005).

[293] Department of Defence, Submission P9, p. 6.

[294] Professor Hugh White, 'Torn between the panda and Uncle Sam', the Age, 23 March 2005, p. 15.

[295] Professor Bill Tow, 'Stand by your mate', The Diplomat, Oct/Nov 2004, p. 25.

[296] Transcript of joint press conference between Prime Minister Howard and President Bush, Washington DC, 19 July 2005.

[297] Transcript of joint press conference between Prime Minister Howard and President Bush, Washington DC, 19 July 2005.

[298] Prime Minister the Hon. John Howard MP, Transcript, Interview with Neil Mitchell, Radio 3AW, 17 October 2003.

[299] The Hon. Alexander Downer MP, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Doorstop Interview—Australia Group, 18 April 2005.

[300] Professor Hugh White, 'Things to chew over for the meat in the sandwich', Sydney Morning Herald, 18 August 2005, p. 15.

[301] Quote from Prime Minister the Hon. John Howard MP, cited in 'Poised between two giants', the Australian, 23 July 2005.

[302] Professor Hugh White, 'Things to chew over for the meat in the sandwich', Sydney Morning Herald, 18 August 2005, p. 15.

[303] President Hu Jintao, Transcript of speech to Australian Parliament, 24 October 2003, http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/10/24/1066631618612.html (accessed on 18 July 2006).

[304] Information Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, China's National Defense in 2004, Chapter 2, 'National Defense Policy', http://english.people.com.cn/whitepaper/defense2004/defense2004(2).html (accessed 23 November 2005).

[305] Premier Wen Jiabao, Report on the Work of the Government, 5 March 2004.

[306] DFAT, Submission P19, p. 15.

[307] Information Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, China's National Defense in 2004, Chapter 2, 'National Defense Policy', http://english.people.com.cn/whitepaper/defense2004/defense2004(2).html (accessed 23 November 2005).

[308] Information Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, China's National Defense in 2004, Chapter 1, 'The Security Situation', http://english.people.com.cn/whitepaper/defense2004/defense2004(2).html (accessed 23 November 2005).

[309] Submission P9, p. 3.

[310] Premier Wen Jiabao, Part VI, Report on the Work of the Government, 5 March 2005, http://www.china.org.cn/english/2005lh/122817.htm (accessed 17 February 2006).

[311] State Council Information Office, Section IV, 'China's Endeavours for Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-Proliferation', 1 September 2005, reprinted in China Daily as Full Text of White Paper on Arms Control, 1 September 2005.

[312] Premier Wen Jiabao, Part VI, Report on the Work of the Government, 5 March 2005, http://www.china.org.cn/english/2005lh/122817.htm (accessed 17 February 2006).

[313] Premier Wen Jiabao, Report on the Work of the Government, 5 March 2004, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-03/16/content_315302.htm (accessed 17 February 2006).

[314] Information Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, China's National Defense in 2004, Chapter 2, 'National Defense Policy', http://english.people.com.cn/whitepaper/defense2004/defense2004(2).html (accessed 23 November 2005).

[315] Information Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, China's National Defense in 2004, Chapter 3, 'Revolution in Military Affairs with Chinese Characteristics' http://english.people.com.cn/whitepaper/defense2004/defense2004(3).html, (accessed 23 November 2005).

[316] Submission P9, p. 5.

[317] Information Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, China's National Defense in 2004, Chapter 2, 'National Defense Policy', http://english.people.com.cn/whitepaper/defense2004/defense2004(2).html (accessed 23 November 2005).

[318] International Assessment and Strategy Centre, 'Top Ten Chinese Military Modernisation Developments', 23 March 2005, http://strategycenter.net/printVersion/print_pub.asp?pubID=65 (accessed 27 November 2005).

[319] Information Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, China's National Defense in 2004, Chapter 3, 'Revolution in Military Affairs with Chinese Characteristics', http://english.people.com.cn/whitepaper/defense2004/defense2004(3).html, (accessed 23 November 2005).

[320] Information Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, China's National Defense in 2004, Chapter 7, 'Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense', http://english.people.com.cn/whitepaper/defense2004/defense2004(7).html, (accessed 23 November 2005).

[321] Information Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, China's National Defense in 2004, Chapter 7, 'Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense', http://english.people.com.cn/whitepaper/defense2004/defense2004(7).html, (accessed 23 November 2005).

[322] Information Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, China's National Defense in 2004, Chapter 7, 'Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense', http://english.people.com.cn/whitepaper/defense2004/defense2004(7).html, (accessed 23 November 2005).

[323] Information Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, China's National Defense in 2004, Chapter 7, 'Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense', http://english.people.com.cn/whitepaper/defense2004/defense2004(7).html (accessed 23 November 2005).

[324] Information Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, China's National Defense in 2004, Chapter 2, 'National Defense Policy', http://english.people.com.cn/whitepaper/defense2004/defense2004(2).html (accessed 23 November 2005).

[325] Information Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, China's National Defense in 2004, Chapter 9, 'International Security Cooperation', http://english.people.com.cn/whitepaper/defense2004/defense2004(9).html (accessed 23 November 2005).

[326] Information Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, China's National Defense in 2004, Chapter 9, 'International Security Cooperation', http://english.people.com.cn/whitepaper/defense2004/defense2004(9).html (accessed 23 November 2005) .

[327] Department of Defence, Submission P9, p. 6.

[328] Foreword, Information Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, China's National Defense in 2004, Beijing, December 2004, http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/whitepaper/defense2004/defense2004forward.html (accessed 10 January 2006).

[329] Information Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, China's National Defense in 2004, Chapter 1, 'The Security Situation', http://english.people.com.cn/whitepaper/defense2004/defense2004(1).html (accessed 23 November 2005).

[330] Information Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, China's National Defense in 2004, Chapter 1, 'The Security Situation', http://english.people.com.cn/whitepaper/defense2004/defense2004(1).html (accessed 23 November 2005).

[331] Information Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, China's National Defense in 2004, Chapter 2, 'National Defense Policy', http://english.people.com.cn/whitepaper/defense2004/defense2004(2).html (accessed 23 November 2005).

[332] Premier Wen Jiabao, Report on the Work of the Government, 5 March 2005, http://www.china.org.cn/english/2005lh/122817.htm (accessed 23 November 2005).

[333] Wang Zhaoguo, Translation of the explanation on the draft Anti-Secession Law, Third Session of the Tenth National People's Congress, 8 March 2005, http://english.people.com.cn/200503/08/eng20050308_176017.html (accessed 31 October 2005).

[334] Wang Zhaoguo, Translation of the explanation on the draft Anti-Secession Law, Third Session of the Tenth National People's Congress, 8 March 2005, http://english.people.com.cn/200503/08/eng20050308_176017.html (accessed 31 October 2005).

[335] Cited in 'China's top legislature enacts historic law for peace', China Daily, 15 March 2005, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-03/15/content_424828.htm (accessed 19 January 2006).

[336] U.S. Department of Defense, Annual report to Congress: The Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2005, July 2005, Executive Summary.

[337] US Department of Defense, Annual report to Congress: The Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2005, July 2005, p. 39.

[338] United States–China Economic and Security Review Commission, 2005 Report to Congress, One Hundred and Ninth Congress, First Session, November 2005, p. 9.

[339] Porter J. Goss, Director of Central Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency, Testimony, United States Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, Statement, 16 February 2005, p. 16. In evidence he noted that in 2004 China increased its ballistic missile forces deployed across from Taiwan and rolled out several new submarines.

[340] Vice Admiral Lowell E. Jacoby, U.S. Navy Director, Defense Intelligence Agency, Testimony, United States Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, 16 February 2005, p. 7.

[341] U.S. Department of Defense, Annual report to Congress: The Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2005, July 2005, Executive Summary.

[342] U.S. Department of Defense, Annual report to Congress: The Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2005, July 2005, p. 12.

[343] U.S. Department of Defense, Annual report to Congress: The Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2005, July 2005, pp. 12–13.

[344] U.S. Department of Defense, Annual report to Congress: The Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2005, July 2005, pp. 13–14.

[345] Air Power Australia, Submission P39, pp. 5–7.

[346] Professor Stuart Harris, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 27.

[347] Professor James Cotton, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 24.

[348] Professor James Cotton, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 24.

[349] Professor James Cotton, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 23.

[350] Professor William Tow, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 23.

[351] Professor William Tow, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 23.

[352] Professor Paul Dibb, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 24.

[353] Senator the Hon. Robert Hill, Transcript of press conference, Beijing, 8 June 2005.

[354] See for example, The International Institute for Strategic Studies, Press Coverage—Economist, 3–5 June 2005, Pakistani Defence Forum, 'China's build-up puts military balance in region at risk: Rumsfeld', 4 June 2005; Matt Kelly, Associated Press, 4 June 2005; and Spokesperson Liu Jianchao's Comment on US Defense Secretary's Accusation of China's Constant Military Build-up, 8 June 2005.

[355] U.S. Department of Defense, Annual report to Congress: The Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2005, July 2005. In testimony before U.S. House of Representatives Armed Services Committee, Mr Peter Brookes referred to China's military build-up as disconcerting —'a defense modernization program that is raising eyebrows in both Washington and across Asia'. He claimed that some estimates indicate that China now has the world's third largest defense budget after the United States and Russia, ranging from $70–90 billion a year. Testimony of Peter T.R. Brookes, Senior Fellow for National Security Affairs and Director, Asian Studies Center, The Heritage Foundation, before the House Armed Services Committee, United States House of Representatives, Washington, D.C., 27 September 2005.

[356] Spokesperson Liu Jianchao's Comment on the U.S. Defense Secretary's accusation of China's constant military build-up, 8 June 2005.

[357] Spokesperson Liu Jianchao's Comment on the U.S. Defense Secretary's accusation of China's constant military build-up, 8 June 2005.

[358] Section IV, Full Text of White Paper on Arms Control, 1 September 2005.

[359] GlobalSecurity.org, 'China's Defense Budget', http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/budget.htm (accessed 27 November 2005).

[360] Table data taken from China Today, 'Military and Armed Forces' accessed at http://www.chinatoday.com/arm on 27.10.05 and Global Security.org, 'China's Defense Budget', http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/budget.htm (accessed 27 November 2005).

[361] China's National Defense in 2004, quoted in People's Daily Online, 27 December 2004, http://english.people.com.cn/200412/27/eng20041227_168799.html (accessed 27 November 2005). It stated that in 2003, China's defence expenditure amounted to only 5.69 per cent of that of the U.S.; 56.78 per cent of that of Japan; 37.07 per cent of that of the United Kingdom; and 75.94 per cent of that of France.

[362] China's National Defense in 2004, quoted in People's Daily Online, 27 December 2004, http://english.people.com.cn/200412/27/eng20041227_168799.html (accessed 27 November 2005).

[363] Embassy of the PRC, Submission P66, p. 12. His Excellency, Zhou Wenzhong, Ambasador of the People's Republic of China to the United States, Address, 'The Future of China–U.S. Relations', 22 September 2005. The Ambassador stated that China's defense budget for 2005 was 'some 29.56 billion U.S. dollars, far less than all the major powers of the world in both aggregates and per capita terms'.

[364] Dr Rosita Dellios, Committee Hansard, 1 August 2005, pp. 59–60.

[365] Testimony of Roy Kamphausen, Director of National Security Affairs, the National Bureau of Asian Research, Statement before the House Armed Services Committee hearing on China's Military Modernisation, 4 November 2005.

[366] U.S. Department of Defense, Annual report to Congress: The Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2005, July 2005, p. 1.

[367] U.S. Department of Defense, Annual report to Congress: The Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2005, July 2005, Executive Summary.

[368] U.S. Department of Defense, Annual report to Congress: The Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2005, July 2005, pp. 21–22.

[369] GlobalSecurity.org, 'China's Defense Budget', http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/budget.htm (accessed 27 November 2005).

[370] GlobalSecurity.org, 'China's Defense Budget', http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/budget.htm (accessed 27 November 2005).

[371] GlobalSecurity.org, 'China's Defense Budget', http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/budget.htm (accessed 27 November 2005).

[372] International Assessment and Strategy Center 'Top Ten Chinese Military Modernization Developments', 23 March 2005, http://www.strategycenter.net/printVersion/print_pub.asp?pubID=65 (accessed 27 October 2005).

[373] Professor James Cotton, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 23.

[374] Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 25. Professor Dibb has also stated 'Its published figures do not include expenditure on military acquisitions, subsidies to defence industry, military sales, space and other covert programs, and research and development. The best estimate is that China spends more than $US56 billion ($74 billion) annually on defence. That makes it the largest defence spender in our region and the third largest in the world, after the US and Russia. China has by far the largest armed forces in the world, with 2.25 million regular troops and about 800,000 thousand reserves'. Professor Paul Dibb, 'Don't get too close to Beijing', the Australian, 2 August 2005.

[375] Professor Paul Dibb, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 25.

[376] Professor Paul Dibb, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 25.

[377] U.S. Department of Defense, Annual report to Congress: The Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2005, July 2005, p. 16.

[378] defenseLINKNews, 'Rumsfeld Urges More Transparency from Chinese Military', 20 October 2005, http://globalsecurity.org/military/libraty/news/2005/10/mil-051020-afps05.htm (accessed 27 October 2005).

[379] defenseLINKNews, 'Rumsfeld Urges More Transparency from Chinese Military', 20 October 2005, http://globalsecurity.org/military/libraty/news/2005/10/mil-051020-afps05.htm (accessed 27 October 2005).

[380] Quote attributed to a senior Defence Department official, Geoff Elliot, 'Rumsfeld bid for answers on Chinese arms', the Australian, October 19 2005, p. 12.

[381] Quote attributed to a senior Defence Department official, Geoff Elliot, 'Rumsfeld bid for answers on Chinese arms', the Australian, October 19 2005, p. 12.

[382] Department of Defence, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 36.

[383] Department of Defence, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 39.

[384] Professor Paul Dibb, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 14.

[385] Professor William Tow, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 11.

[386] Peter Jennings, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 29.

[387] Peter Jennings, 'Australia's Chinese challenge', Australian Financial Review, 7 October 2005, p. 11.

[388] Frank W Moore, Institute for Defense and Disarmament Studies, 'China's Military Capabilities', June 2000, http://www/comw.org/cmp/fulltext/addschina.html (accessed on 27 October 2005).

[389] Submission P9, p. 6.

[390] Submission P9, p. 3.

[391] Submission P9, p. 3.

[392] Submission P9, p. 7.

[393] Submission P9, p. 7.

[394] Information Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, China's National Defense in 2004, Chapter 9, International Security Cooperation, Beijing, December 2004, http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/whitepaper/defense2004/defense2004forward.html (accessed 10 January 2006).

[395] Information Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, China's National Defense in 2004, Chapter 9, 'International Security Cooperation', http://english.people.com.cn/whitepaper/defense2004/defense2004.html (accessed 10 January 2006).

[396] Information Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, China's National Defense in 2004, Chapter 10, 'Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-Proliferation', http://english.people.com.cn/whitepaper/defense2004/defense2004(10).html (accessed 17 February 2006).

[397] United States–China Economic and Security Review Commission, 2005 Report to Congress, One Hundred and Ninth Congress, First Session, November 2005, p. 153.

[398] Professor William Tow, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 22.

[399] The Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT) refers to two rounds of bilateral talks between the Soviet Union and United States on the issue of armament control. The first round (1969–1972) froze the number of strategic ballistic missile launchers at existing levels: the second round (1972–1979) sought to curtail the manufacture of strategic nuclear weapons.

[400] Mr Peter Jennings, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 29.

[401] Preamble, Constitution of the People's Republic of China, http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/constitution/constitution.html (accessed 17 July 2005).

[402] Professor Colin Mackerras, Submission P54, p. 23.

[403] See for example 'Bush commits US forces to defend Taiwan', the Age, 26 April 2001, p. 11.

[404] See footnote 1 to this chapter and paragraphs 6.18–6.24. Malcolm Cook and Craig Meer, Balancing act: Taiwan's cross-strait challenge, Lowy Institute Paper 06.

[405] Malcolm Cook and Craig Meer, Balancing act: Taiwan's cross-strait challenge, Lowy Institute Paper 06, p. 3.

[406] DFAT website, http://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/taiwan/taiwan_brief.html (accessed 19 August 2005).

[407] PRC Embassy, Submission P66, p. 25.

[408] Malcolm Cook and Craig Meer, Balancing act: Taiwan's cross-strait challenge, Lowy Institute Paper 06, pp. 8–9.

[409] Taiwan's leaders have referred at times to Taiwan as an independent sovereign country. See for example, President Chen's interview by the Washington Post, 30 March 2004; The Office of the President of the Republic of China, President Chen Shui-Bian, 'Writing History with Democracy and Defending Taiwan with Referendum', 3 February 2004; Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of China (Taiwan), 'The Ministry of Foreign Affairs issues the following solemn statement: the government of the Republic of China...', January 2004.

[410] Reg Little and James Flowers, Submission P26, p. 9.

[411] Taiwanese Bureau of Foreign Trade, 'Value of imports and exports by country January 2004–January 2005', Trade Statistics (link), http://eweb.trade.gov.tw/kmDoit.asp?CAT597&CtNode=649 (accessed 24 October 2005).

[412] Dick Nanto and Emma Chanlett-Avery, CRS Report to Congress, The Rise of China and its Effect on Taiwan, Japan and South Korea: US Policy Choices, April 2005, p. 12.

[413] Malcolm Cook and Craig Meer, Balancing act: Taiwan's cross-strait challenge, Lowy Institute Paper 06, p. 4.

[414] Roy Pinsker, 'Drawing a line in the Taiwan Strait: strategic ambiguity and its discontents', Australian Journal of International Affairs, vol. 57, no. 2, July 2003, p. 356.

[415] Roy Pinsker, 'Drawing a line in the Taiwan Strait: 'strategic ambiguity and its discontents', Australian Journal of International Affairs, vol. 57, no. 2, July 2003, p. 357 and 364.

[416] Professor Bruce Jacobs, 'A victory for Taiwanese sovereignty', the Age, 23 March 2004, p. 11.

[417] 'President Chen's address to the National Day rally', Office of the President Republic of China, News Release, 10 October 2004, http://www.mac.gov.tw/english/english/macpolicy/c931010e.htm (accessed 25 July 2005).

[418] President Chen Shui-bian, 'Writing History with Democracy and Defending Taiwan with Referendum, The Office of the President of the Republic of China, 3 Febrary 2004

[419] The Office of the President of the Republic of China, President Chen Shui-Bian, 'Writing History with Democracy and Defending Taiwan with Referendum', 3 February 2004.

[420] Professor Stuart Harris, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 5.

[421] Professor Paul Dibb, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 3.

[422] Embassy of the PRC, Submission P66, pp. 18–19.

[423] Transcript from ABC radio, PM, 14 March 2005.

[424] DFAT, Committee Hansard, 16 June 2005, p. 21.

[425] Professor Stuart Harris, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 2.

[426] See paragraph 6.26–6.28.

[427] Professor Stuart Harris, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 27.

[428] Professor Bruce Jacobs, Committee Hansard, 27 June 2005, p. 38.

[429] See for example 'Bush commits US forces to defend Taiwan', the Age, 26 April 2001, p. 11.

[430] Professor Bruce Jacobs, Committee Hansard, 27 June 2005, p. 35.

[431] Information Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, China's National Defense in 2004, Chapter 1, 'The Security Situation', http://english.people.com.cn/whitepaper/defense2004/defense2004(1).html (accessed 17 February 2006).

[432] Interview with Condoleezza Rice, 'Rice puts US–China relations on the Australian agenda', Transcript, 16 March 2006.

[433] Professor James Cotton, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 7.

[434] Professor Bruce Jacobs, Committee Hansard, 27 June 2005, p. 39.

[435] Professor James Cotton, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 7.

[436] Department of Defence, Submission P9, p. 4.

[437] DFAT, Submission P19, p. 17.

[438] Mr Peter Jennings, 'Australia's Chinese challenge', Australian Financial Review, 7 October 2005, p. 11.

[439] Professor Hugh White, 'It's not in Taiwan's interest to risk war for the trappings of independence', Sydney Morning Herald, 25 March 2004, p. 11.

[440] Mr Peter Jennings, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Submission P2, p. 3.

[441] See paragraphs 6.25–6.28. 'China not capable of Taiwan attack: US report', ABC news online, http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200507/s1418134.htm (accessed on 20 July 2005).

[442] Professor Paul Dibb, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 3.

[443] See paragraph 7.6. See also Mr Tony Pratt, 'Off the map: missteps in our one-China policy', Canberra Times, 13 December 2005, p. 13.

[444] Mr Peter Jennings, 'Australia's Chinese challenge', Australian Financial Review, 7 October 2005, p. 11.

[445] Mr Garry Woodard, Submission 61, p. 3.

[446] Professor Stuart Harris, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 10.

[447] Professor Bill Tow, 'Stand by your mate', The Diplomat, Oct/Nov 2004, p. 26.

[448] Professor Bill Tow, 'Stand by your mate', The Diplomat, Oct/Nov 2004, p. 26.

[449] Department of the Parliamentary Library, 'Upside, Downside: ANZUS After Fifty Years', Current Issues Brief No. 3 2001–02, p. 1.

[450] The full text of the ANZUS Treaty can be found at: http://www.australianpolitics.com/foreign/anzus/anzus-treaty.shtml (accessed 16 March 2006).

[451] Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Submission P2, p. 5.

[452] Mr Garry Woodard, Submission P61, pp. 3–4.

[453] Mr Garry Woodard, Submission P61, p. 4.

[454] Committee Hansard, 27 June 2005, p. 22.

[455] Mr Garry Woodard, Committee Hansard, 27 June 2005, p. 23.

[456] Professor Paul Dibb, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 3.

[457] Professor Paul Dibb, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 4.

[458] Professor Stuart Harris, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 4.

[459] Mr Peter Jennings, 'Australia's Chinese challenge', Australian Financial Review, 7 October 2005, p. 11.

[460] DFAT, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 35.

[461] Mr Garry Woodard, Submission P61, p. 4.

[462] John Kerin, 'Beijing puts the flame to Downer', Weekend Australian, 21 August 2005, p. 3.

[463] Taken from quote on ABC radio, PM, 20 August 2005.

[464] Transcript of interview with Neil Mitchell on 3AW, 20 August 2004.

[465] Mr Garry Woodard, Committee Hansard, 27 June 2005, p. 24.

[466] Professor Bruce Jacobs, Committee Hansard, 27 June 2005, p. 38.

[467] Mr Garry Woodard, Committee Hansard, 27 June 2005, p. 23.

[468] Cited in Peter Jennings, 'Getting China Right: Australia's policy options for dealing with China', ASPI Strategic Insights, October 2005, p. 4.

[469] Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, 'Advancing the National Interest', Foreign and Trade Policy White Paper, Canberra, 2003, p. 21.

[470] Premier Wen Jiabao, Transcript of press conference, 14 March 2005, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-03/15/content_424826_9.htm (accessed 20 February 2005).

[471] See for example the messages from Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi to Premier Zhu Rongji and the message from Premier Zhui Rongji to Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, 29 September 2002 on the occasion of the 30^th anniversary of the normalisation of Japan–China relations.

[472] Department of Policy Planning, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, People's Republic of China, China's Foreign Affairs 2005, p. 192.

[473] DFAT, Submission P19, p. 17.

[474] The Economist, 6 October 2005, http://economist.com/PrinterFriendly.cfm?story_id=4489650 (accessed 27 October 2005).

[475] Statement by the Press Secretary/Director General for Press and Public Relations, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, On the Activities Concerning Japan by Demonstrators on the 16^th in Shanghai and elsewhere in China, 16 April 2005; 'China row with Japan still on the boil', Canberra Times, 20 April 2005.

[476] Statement by the Press Secretary/Director General for Press and Public Relations, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, On the Activities Concerning Japan by Demonstrators on the 16^th in Shanghai and elsewhere in China, 16 April 2005; Jonathan Watts, 'Violence flares as the Chinese rage at Japan', Observer, 17 April 2005.

[477] Joseph Kahn, 'Chinese Official Urges End to Anti-Japan Protests', New York Times, 19 April 2005, http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/19/international/asia/19cnd-china.html?ei=5070&en=19c0ab56a739c6ea&ex=1132722000&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1132611408-Kl6qK/KdyQBRXnP0XiSN4w (accessed 21 November 2005).

[478] Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, Statement by the Press Secretary/Director-General for Press and Public Relations, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, On the Activities Concerning Japan by Demonstrators on the 16^th in Shanghai and elsewhere in China, 16 April 2005 and Visit by Minister for Foreign Affairs, Nobutaka Machimura, to the People's Republic of China.

[479] Professor Bruce Jacobs, Committee Hansard, 27 June 2005, p. 43.

[480] DFAT, Committee Hansard, 16 June 2005, p. 43.

[481] Jonathan Watts, 'Violence flares as the Chinese rage at Japan', Observer, 17 April 2005.

[482] See for example 'Revisionist history text infuriates Japan's neighbours', Sydney Morning Herald, 5 April 2001.

[483] The Japan Times, 25 April 2005, http://www.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/getarticle.pl5?nn20050425a2.htm (accessed 22 November 2005).

[484] 'Machimura blasts China's textbooks as extreme', The Japan Times, 25 April 2005, http://search.japantimes.co.jp/print/news/nn04-2005/nn20050425a2.htm (accessed 22 November 2005).

[485] Peter Alford, 'Neighbours face off over Koizumi war stand', the Australian, 18 April 2005, p. 9.

[486] As part of investigating alternatives, a private advisory panel in Japan has proposed establishing a non-religious national facility to mourn war dead. Japan Times, 12 June 2005, http://www.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/getarticle.pl5?eo20050612kn.htm (accessed 22 November 2005).

[487] Mainichi Daily News, 19 November 2005, http://mdn.mainichi-msn.co.jp/national/news/20051119p2a00m0na028000c.html (accessed 22 November 2005).

[488] China Daily, 'Sino–Japanese leaders' meeting impossible in December—official', 30 November 2005.

[489] China Daily, 'Meeting with Japan, South Korea ruled out', 8 December 2005.

[490] Professor Paul Dibb, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 20.

[491] 'History that still hurts', the Economist, 13 April 2005, http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3856623 (accessed on 28 November 2005).

[492] Professor Bruce Jacobs, Committee Hansard, 27 June 2005, p. 43.

[493] Hamish McDonald, 'China scolds US, Japan over Taiwan', Sydney Morning Herald, 21 February 2005, p. 8.

[494] Quoted in Hamish McDonald, 'China scolds U.S., Japan over Taiwan', Sydney Morning Herald, 21 February 2005, p. 8.

[495] Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, 'Statement by the Press Secretary/Director-General for Press and Public Relations, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, on the Anti-Secession Law', Press release, 14 March 2005, http://www.mofa.go.jp/announce/announce/2005/3/0314.html (accessed on 20 February 2006).

[496] Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, 'Chinese State Councillor Tang Jiaxuan Meets with Japanese Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura', Press release, 18 April 2005, http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/zxxx/t192591.htm, (accessed on 20 February 2006).

[497] Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, Foreign Spokesman Kong Quan's, Transcript of press conference, 1 November 2005, http://www.china-embassy.org/eng/fyrth/t219470.htm (accessed on 20 February 2006).

[498] Professor Stuart Harris, 'PM's China challenge', the Australian, 20 April 2005, p. 15.

[499] Mr Garry Woodard, Committee Hansard, 27 June 2005, p. 28.

[500] 'China: United Nations "not a board of directors"', China People's Daily Online, 23 September 2004, http://english.people.com.cn/200409/23/eng20040923_158023.html (accessed 29 July 2005).

[501] See for example Hamish McDonald, 'Beijing struggles to regain control of anti-Japan protests', the Age, 18 April 2005, p. 7.

[502] Foreign Ministry of the People's Republic of China, 'Premier Wen Jiabao Meets with Journalists, Talking about 3 Achievements of His Visit to India', 12 April 2005.

[503] Mr Garry Woodard, Committee Hansard, 27 June 2005, pp. 27–28.

[504] Mr Garry Woodard, Committee Hansard, 27 June 2005, p. 28.

[505] Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, 'Advancing the National Interest', Foreign and Trade Policy White Paper, Canberra, 2003, p. 23.

[506] Mr Reg Little and Mr James Flowers, Submission P26, p. 9.

[507] 'Japan reopens wartime wounds', Sydney Morning Herald, 4 August 2005.

[508] 'Japan reopens wartime wounds', Sydney Morning Herald, 4 August 2005.

[509] Tim Johnston, 'Japan apologises for wartime atrocities', the Age, 23 April 2005, p. 15.

[510] Hamish McDonald and Deborah Cameron, 'Drilling plan infuriates China', Sydney Morning Herald, 15 April 2005, p. 8.

[511] J. Sean Curtin, 'Sea of confrontation: Japan–China Territorial and Gas dispute Intensifies', Japan Focus, 6 October 2005 http://www.japanfocus.org/article.asp?id=426 (accessed 28 November 2005).

[512] Dr Frank Frost, 'Directions in Australia's foreign relations—implications for east Asia and Australia', Research brief, Parliamentary Library, p. 37.

[513] Japan Times, 2 October 2005, http://www.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/getarticle.pl5?nn20051002a1.htm (accessed 22 December 2005).

[514] Mainichi Daily News, 26 October 2005, http://mdn.mainichi-msn.co.jp/business/archive/news/2005/10/26/20051026p2g00m0bu013000c.html (accessed 22 December 2005).

[515] The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, Diplomatic Bluebook 2004, Chapter 2: Regional diplomacy, pp. 45–56.

[516] Wenran Jiang, 'China's "New Thinking" on Japan', The Jamestown Foundation, China Brief, volume V, issue 3, 1 February 2005, p. 3.

[517] Quote taken from Department of Defence, 'Defence Update', 2003, p. 8, Department of Defence, Submission P9, pp. 4–5.

[518] DFAT, Submission P19, p. 17.

[519] DFAT, Submission P19, p. 18.

[520] The Hon. John Howard MP, Transcript of address to the Lowy Institute for International Policy, 'Australia in the World', Westin Hotel, Sydney, 22 March 2005.

[521] The Hon. John Howard MP, Transcript of address to the Lowy Institute for International Policy, 'Australia in the World', Westin Hotel, Sydney, 22 March 2005.

[522] Prime Minister the Hon. John Howard MP, Transcript of address to the Asia Society Lunch, New York City, 12 September 2005.

[523] Submission P22, p. 2.

[524] See for example 'Visit to Japan', Press release, Foreign Minister the Hon. Alexander Downer MP, 17 March 2005.

[525] 'New call for Japanese UN seat', Sunday Canberra Times, 13 February 2005, p. 14.

[526] The Hon. John Howard MP, Transcript of address to the Lowy Institute for International Policy, 'Australia in the World', Westin Hotel, Sydney, 22 March 2005.

[527] Dr Peter Van Ness, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 18.

[528] Professor Paul Dibb, 'Don't get too close to Beijing', the Australian, 2 August 2005.

[529] The Hon. John Howard MP, Transcript of press conference, Darwin, 18 April 2005.

[530] The Hon. Alexander Downer MP, Transcript of doorstop interview, 18 April 2005.

[531] Washington File, EPF30405/04/2005, Transcript: U.S. Security Talks with Australia, Japan to Intensify, Rice Says (Secretary says trilateral initiative will be raised to foreign ministerial level) (2004).

[532] Professor Stuart Harris, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 13.

[533] Dr Peter Van Ness, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 18.

[534] The Hon. Alexander Downer MP, Transcript of doorstop interview, Vientiane Laos, 29 July 2005.

[535] Dr Condoleezza Rice, Washington DC, 9 March 2006, Transcript, 'Roundtable with Australian, Indonesian and Latin American Journalists', http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2006/62968.htm (accessed 13 March 2006). See also quote in Geoff Elliott, 'US warns of China threat', 11 March 2006, Washington, News.com.au.

[536] See 'North Korean Military Resource Page', Military History, http://www.militaryhistory.about.com/od/northkorea (accessed 1 March 2006).

[537] Reuters, cited in 'A North Korean snapshot', the Age, 26 April 2003, p. 13.
North Korea's current population is estimated at 22.9 million. See 'Country Profile: North Korea', BBC World News, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/country_profiles/1131421.stm, (accessed 13 December 2005).

[538] Aid from the former Soviet Union ceased in 1991.

[539] Department of Policy Planning, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, People's Republic of China, China's Foreign Affairs 2005, World Affairs Press, 2005, p. 137;
C. Armitage, 'Beijing feels the heat', the Australian, 14 January 2003.

[540] The DPRK was established on 9 September 1948. The People's Republic of China was established a year later on 1 October 1949.

[541] Dr Frank Frost, 'Directions in China's foreign relations—implications for East Asia and Australia', Research Brief no. 9, Parliamentary Library, 5 December 2005, p. 42.
The end of the Korean War and the death of Soviet leader Joseph Stalin in 1953 led to a thawing of relations between the DPRK and the Soviet Union and a move towards the DPRK's policy of self-reliance.

[542] The text of the Treaty is available at: http://www.ioc.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~worldjpn/documents/texts/docs/19610711.T1E.html (accessed 15 December 2005).

[543] See Ms Anne Wu, 'What China whispers to North Korea', The Washington Quarterly, vol. 28, no. 2, pp. 36 and 42.

[544] Dr Frank Frost, 'Directions in China's foreign relations—implications for East Asia and Australia', Research Brief, no. 9, Parliamentary Library, 5 December 2005, p. 42.

[545] Dr Frank Frost, 'Directions in China's foreign relations—implications for East Asia and Australia', Research Brief no. 9, Parliamentary Library, 5 December 2005, p. 42.
See Zhu Feng, ‘China’s policy on the North Korean nuclear issue’, China Strategy, (Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington DC), vol 3, 20 July 2004, p. 5.

[546] See Anne Wu, 'What China whispers to North Korea', The Washington Quarterly, vol. 28, no. 2, p. 39.

[547] Kim Jong Il's father, Kim Il-sung, was the DPRK's first leader (1948–1994). Kim Jong Il assumed the presidency and leadership of the Korean Workers' Party in 1997.

[548] Department of Policy Planning, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, People's Republic of China, China's Foreign Affairs 2005, World Affairs Press, 2005, p. 137.

[549] Mark Manyin, Emma Chanlett-Avery and Helene Marchart, 'North Korea: A Chronology of Events, October 2002–December 2004', Congressional Research Service report for Congress, 24 January 2005, p. 2.

[550] All references to 'President Bush' and 'the U.S. government' in this chapter relate to the incumbent US President, George W. Bush.

[551] Mark Manyin, Emma Chanlett-Avery and Helene Marchart, 'North Korea: A Chronology of Events, October 2002–December 2004', Congressional Research Service report for Congress, 24 January 2005, p. 1.

[552] President George W. Bush, State of the Union Address, 29 January 2002, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/01/20020129-11.html (accessed 29 November 2005).

[553] For a discussion of the South Korean position, see David Reese, 'North Korea: Anatomy of a rogue state', in Maria Vicziany, David Wright-Neville and Peter Lentini (eds), Regional Security in the Asia Pacific: 9/11 and After, (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2004), pp. 256–259.

[554] K. Quan, Foreign Ministry briefing, 5 February 2002, cited in Anne Wu, 'What China whispers to North Korea', Washington Quarterly, vol. 28, no. 2, p. 40.

[555] Mark Manyin, Emma Chanlett-Avery and Helene Marchart, 'North Korea: A Chronology of Events, October 2002–December 2004', Congressional Research Service report for Congress, 24 January 2005, p. 2.

[556] BBC News World Edition, 'Jiang and Bush start Texas summit', 25 October 2002, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/2355797.stm (accessed 6 January 2005).

[557] This reactor had been abandoned in 1994 as part of the Framework Agreement with the U.S. In return, North Korea was supplied with fuel water, two light-water reactors and economic aid.

[558] Mark Manyin, Emma Chanlett-Avery and Helene Marchart, 'North Korea: A Chronology of Events, October 2002–December 2004', Congressional Research Service report for Congress, 24 January 2005, p. 1.

[559] Korean Central News Agency of DPRK, Statement of DPRK Government on its withdrawal from NPT, 11 January 2003, http://www.kcna.co.jp/index-e.htm (accessed 6 January 2006). See also Stephen Lunn and Roy Eccleston, 'N Korea to talk with US and China', the Australian, 17 April 2003, p. 10.

[560] Henry Sokolski and Victor Gilinsky, 'Northern Exposure', Weekend Australian, 18 January 2003, p. 21. This article was reproduced for the Weekly Standard. Henry Sokolski is executive director of the Washington-based Non-proliferation Policy Education Centre. Victor Gilinsky is an energy consultant and former member of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

[561] U.S. Department of State, 'Remarks by President Bush and Polish President Kwasniewski During Photo Opportunity', 14 January 2003, http://warsaw.usembassy.gov/poland/011503b.html (accessed 6 January 2006).

[562] The Hon. Alexander Downer MP, 'Dealing with North Korea', Korea 're-examined' conference dinner, University of Sydney, 13 February 2003, p. 8.

[563] The Hon. Alexander Downer MP, Press Conference, Washington, 3 April 2003. See also H. McDonald, 'China turns up heat on North Korea as it warns UN not to be hasty', Sydney Morning Herald, 9 April 2003, p. 10.

[564] Mark Manyin, Emma Chanlett-Avery and Helene Marchart, 'North Korea: A Chronology of Events, October 2002–December 2004', Congressional Research Service report for Congress, 24 January 2005, p. 3. The China–North Korean border is over 1,000 kilometres long.

[565] See Anne Wu, 'What China whispers to North Korea', Washington Quarterly, vol. 28, no. 2, p. 38.

[566] While this is certainly the approach of the Chinese government, Professor Yiwei Wang from Fudan University (PRC) notes: '[T]here are huge gaps between the government and civil society, seniors and juniors, elites and the masses, and even between different departments and regions of China'. He notes that most 'ordinary Chinese' think that solving the North Korean nuclear issue is not China's business and that 'China just wants to do a favor for the U.S.'
Professor Yiwei Wang, 'China's role in dealing with the North Korean Nuclear issue', Korea Observer, vol. 36, no. 3, Autumn 2005, pp. 471–472.

[567] In March 2003, U.S. National Security Adviser, Dr Condoleezza Rice, had suggested the option of an oil pipeline shut down to Beijing. In late April 2005, a senior U.S. envoy asked Chinese officials to cut off North Korea's supply of oil as a way of pressuring Pyongyang to return to disarmament talks. It was reported that U.S. officials had explained that China rejected this idea, citing the damage it would cause to the pipeline. Glenn Kessler, 'China rejected US suggestion to cut oil off to pressure North Korea', Washington Post, 7 May 2005, p. A11, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/05/06/AR2005050601623.html (accessed 1 December 2005).

[568] The Hon. Alexander Downer MP, 'Australia welcomes three-party talks on North Korea', Media Release, 17 April 2003.

[569] Richard Boucher, 'Multilateral talks in Beijing', Press Statement, U.S. Department of State, 21 April 2003, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2003/19780.htm (accessed 1 March 2006).

[570] 'Beijing's role in shaping N Korea', Australian Financial Review, 30 April 2003, p. 62.

[571] 'Desperate straits', The Economist, 3 May 2003, p. 26.

[572] The Economist, 'The China syndrome', reprinted in the Australian, 5 May 2003.

[573] The Economist, 'Beijing holds aces in a high-stakes game', reprinted in the Australian, 5 May 2003.

[574] 'China and the North Korean Nuclear and Missile Issues—Statements and Developments', Nuclear Threat Initiative, http://www.nti.org/db/china/koreachr.htm (accessed 27 November 2005).

[575] 'China and the North Korean Nuclear and Missile Issues—Statements and Developments', Nuclear Threat Initiative, http://www.nti.org/db/china/koreachr.htm (accessed 27 November 2005).

[576] Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Press Conference, 2 September 2003. See 'China and the North Korean Nuclear and Missile Issues—Statements and Developments', Nuclear Threat Initiative, http://www.nti.org/db/china/koreachr.htm (accessed 27 November 2005).

[577] Mark Manyin, Emma Chanlett-Avery and Helene Marchart, 'North Korea: A Chronology of Events, October 2002–December 2004', Congressional Research Service report for Congress, 24 January 2005, p. 2.

[578] See the comments of James Kelly, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, North Korea: Towards a New International Engagement Framework, Remarks to The Research Conference, Washington DC, February 13, 2004, http://www.acronym.org.uk/docs/0402/doc26.htm (accessed 6 January 2006). See also Stephen Lunn, 'North Korea declares: we've got N bombs', the Australian, 3 October 2003, p. 1.

[579] Colin Powell, Remarks at APEC CEO Summit, Shangri-La Hotel, Bangkok, 20 October 2003, http://bangkok.usembassy.gov//apec2003/remarkspowell102003.htm (accessed 6 January 2006).

[580] Glenn Kessler, 'China questions US claims about Korean nuclear threat', Sydney Morning Herald, 8 January 2004, p. 7. The article was reproduced from The Washington Post. See also Selig Harrison, 'Crafting Intelligence: Iraq, North Korea and the Road to War', Japan Focus, http://www.japanfocus.org/article.asp?id=229 (accessed 1 March 2006).

[581] See for example Selig Harrison, 'Did North Korea Cheat?', Foreign Affairs, January 2005, http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20050101faessay84109/selig-s-harrison/did-north-korea-cheat.html (accessed 1 March 2006).

[582] Glenn Kessler, 'China questions US claims about Korean nuclear threat', Sydney Morning Herald, 8 January 2004, p. 7. The article was reproduced from the Washington Post.

[583] Hamish McDonald, 'Millions in North Korea face starvation rations as aid dries up', the Age, 10 February 2004, p. 8.

[584] 'Official statements for second round of Six-Party talks', DPRK Briefing Book, accessed from Nautilus Institute website, http://www.nautilus.org/DPRKBriefingBook/multilateralTalks/sixpartytalks2.html#top (accessed 1 March 2006).

[585] Catherine Armitage, 'N Korea nuclear talks end in limbo', the Australian, 1 March 2004, p. 12.

[586] Hamish McDonald, 'Pyongyang resists US nuclear demands', the Age, 1 March 2004, p. 9. The comment was made by an unnamed senior US delegate, who spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity.

[587] See Larry Niksch, 'North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Program', CRS Issue Brief for Congress, 17 January 2006, p. 6, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/IB91141.pdf (accessed 3 March 2006).

[588] 'Six-Party Talks End, US Saying 'Successful'', China People's Daily, 29 February 2004, http://english.people.com.cn/200402/29/eng20040229_136143.shtml (accessed 6 January 2006).

[589] Larry Niksch, 'North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Program', CRS Issue Brief for Congress, 17 January 2006, p. 1, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/IB91141.pdf (accessed 3 March 2006).

[590] Larry Niksch, 'North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Program', CRS Issue Brief for Congress, 17 January 2006, p. 1, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/IB91141.pdf (accessed 3 March 2006).

[591] 'DPRK Foreign Ministry dismisses U.S. proposal', Korean Central News Agency of DPRK, 24 July 2004, http://www.kcna.co.jp/index-e.htm (accessed 3 March 2006).

[592] Mark Manyin, Emma Chanlett-Avery and Helene Marchart, 'North Korea: A Chronology of Events, October 2002–December 2004', Congressional Research Service report for Congress, 24 January 2005, p. 4.

[593] Mark Manyin, Emma Chanlett-Avery and Helene Marchart, 'North Korea: A Chronology of Events, October 2002–December 2004', Congressional Research Service report for Congress, 24 January 2005, p. 4.

[594] Mark Manyin, Emma Chanlett-Avery and Helene Marchart, 'North Korea: A Chronology of Events, October 2002–December 2004', Congressional Research Service report for Congress, 24 January 2005, p. 4.

[595] The Hon. Alexander Downer MP, Jakarta Doorstop, 1 July 2004, http://www.foreignminister.gov.au/transcripts/2004/040701_jak.html (accessed 6 January 2006).

[596] Zhu Feng, 'China’s policy on the North Korean nuclear issue', China Strategy, (Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington DC), vol. 3, 20 July 2004, p. 5.

[597] The Hon. Alexander Downer MP, Pyongyang Doorstop, 18 August 2004, p. 1.

[598] The Hon. Alexander Downer MP, Pyongyang Doorstop, 18 August 2004, p. 2.

[599] 'Spokesman for DPRK Foreign Ministry on Prospect of Six-Party talks', Korean Central News Agency of DPRK, 16 August 2004, http://www.kcna.co.jp/index-e.htm (accessed 20 December 2005).

[600] Reuters, 'Chinese Minister doubtful on N. Korea nuclear claim', 29 September 2004, accessed from Nautilus Institute website, http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/0409/SEPT2904.html (accessed 6 January 2006). Mr Li commented: 'The official news I've got from the DPRK side seems not to be exactly the same as what you have heard about.'

[601] Reuters, 'Chinese Minister doubtful on N. Korea nuclear claim', 29 September 2004, accessed from Nautilus Institute website, http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/0409/SEPT2904.html (accessed 6 January 2006).

[602] See Peter Alford, 'Stalemate on N Korea talks tipped to break after US elections', the Australian, 12 October 2004, p. 8. The article quoted an unnamed official as stating that North Korea 'always tries for maximum flexibility of manoeuvre'. Pyongyang denied it was waiting for the U.S. election outcome stating: 'Who will become a next U.S. president is the Americans' interest. It has nothing to do with the DPRK'. 'Spokesman for DPRK Foreign Ministry on Prospect of Six-Party talks', Korean Central News Agency of DPRK, 16 August 2004.

[603] Colin Powell, interview by Maria Bartiromo, Wall Street Journal Report, CNBC, November 12 2004.

[604] See 'N Korea's statement in full', BBC World News, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4252515.stm (accessed 9 December 2005).

[605] Larry Niksch, 'Korea: US–Korean Relations—Issues for Congress', The Library of Congress, 16 June 2005, p. 1.

[606] See Joseph Kahn, 'China says U.S. impeded North Korea arms talk', New York Times, 13 May 2005.

[607] Professor Gennady Chufrin, 'The North Korean Nuclear Crisis', Social Science Research Council, http://northkorea.ssrc.org/Chufrin/ (accessed 9 December 2005). Professor Chufrin notes a brief meeting between the head of the North Korean Parliament, Kim Jong-Nam, and the Prime Minister of South Korea, Lee Hae-Chan, during the Asia–Africa summit in Jakarta in April 2005.

[608] Christopher Hill, US Opening Statement at Fourth round of Six-Party talks, 26 July 2005, http://usinfo.state.gov/eap/Archive/2005/Aug/03-391434.html (accessed 5 January 2006).

[609] Edward Cody, 'U.S., N. Korea focus on bilateral talks', Washington Post, 26 July 2005. The article made reference to an 'unnamed source'.

[610] See Jim Yardley and David Sanger, 'U.S. tries a new approach in talks with North Korea', New York Times, 27 July 2005. See also the comments of U.S. Secretary of State, Dr Condoleezza Rice, Interview on The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer, 28 July 2005, Transcript available at http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2005/50349.htm (accessed 3 March 2006).

[611] Christopher Hill, Transcript, 'Hill reports "encouraging signs" at the Six Party talks', Washington File, 29 July 2005.

[612] 'US lauds China's efforts on North Korea Six-Party talks', Transcript of Assistant Secretary Christopher Hill at Six-Party talks, Regis Hotel, usinfo.state.gov, 3 August 2005.

[613] Jim Yardley, 'US and North Korea blame each other for stalemate in talks', New York Times, 8 August 2005.

[614] Light-water reactors are harder to use for bomb-making than heavy-water types.

[615] The transcript of the statement can be found at the U.S. Department of State website at: http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2005/53490.htm (accessed 9 December 2005).

[616] See 'Disarmament documentation: Six Party talks on North Korea's nuclear program, Selected comment, 13–19 September 2005', The Acronym Institute, http://www.acronym.org.uk/docs/0509/doc06.htm (accessed 9 December 2005).

[617] Edward Cody, 'N Korea vows to quit arms program', Washington Post Foreign Service, 19 September 2005.

[618] Professor Hugh White quoted in Catherine Armitage, 'N Korea abandons its nukes', the Australian, 20 September 2005, p. 1.

[619] Professor James Cotton quoted in Paul Kelly, 'A death knell to the Bush doctrine', the Australian, 21 September 2005, p. 12.

[620] Professor James Cotton quoted in Geoffrey Barker, 'Peace and Pyongyang prevail', Australian Financial Review, 20 September 2005, p. 12.

[621] Professor James Cotton quoted in Geoffrey Barker, 'Peace and Pyongyang prevail', Australian Financial Review, 20 September 2005, p. 12.

[622] Korean Central News Agency of DPRK, 'Spokesman for DPRK Foreign Ministry on Six-Party talks', 21 September 2005, http://www.kcna.co.jp/index-e.htm (accessed 5 January 2006).

[623] The quote was reported by Kyodo News, http://home.kyodo.co.jp/modules/fstSpecial01/index.php?cmenuid=19& (accessed 5 January 2006).

[624] Christopher Hill, Remarks on the Six-Party Peace Talks, New York, 11 October 2005.

[625] Professor Robyn Lim, 'Upping the ante on N-weapons', Australian Financial Review, 21 September 2005, p. 63.

[626] Mr Charles Krauthammer, 'China's moment', Washington Post, 23 September 2005, p. A23.

[627] Dr Peter Van Ness, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 18.

[628] Nuclear Threat Initiative, 'North Korea repeats demand for light-water reactor', 31 October 2005, http://www.nti.org/d_newswire/issues/2005/10/31/ec3dda4d-b88c-4288-a10c-5aa731a3fce9.html (accessed 5 January 2006).

[629] See Liu Jianchao, Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Press Conference, 8 November 2005, http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/xwfw/s2510/t220541.htm (accessed 5 January 2006). See also Peter Wallsten and Tyler Marshall, 'Allies differ on N Korea approach', Los Angeles Times, 17 November 2005.

[630] David Sanger, 'US and Seoul share a goal but not a strategy on North Korea', New York Times, 17 November 2005. Anthony Faiola, 'N Korea gains aid despite arms standoff', Washington Post, 16 November 2005.

[631] Japan's relationship with North Korea has been tested by the admission of Kim Jong-il to Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi in September 2002 that North Korea had abducted 13 Japanese nationals in the 1970s and 1980s. Five of the thirteen abductees have returned to Japan. Japan rejects North Korea's claims that the other eight are dead and has scientifically disproved Pyongyang's claim that bone fragments it had sent to Japan were the remains of the abductees. The issue has aroused considerable public anger in Japan and led to the Japanese government's suspension of aid shipments to the DPRK in 2004.

In November 2005, Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs noted that the UN General Assembly had overwhelmingly passed a resolution—'Situation on human rights in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK)'—which refered explicitly to the abduction issue. The Ministry released a statement stipulating: 'Japan strongly hopes that North Korea will seriously accept the message of the international community shown in the resolution and take sincere action toward improving the situation of human rights including the resolution of the abduction issue'. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, Statement by the Press Secretary/Director-General for Press and Public Relations, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, on the Adoption of the Resolution on the Situation of Human Rights in the DPRK at the Third Committee, United Nations General Assembly, http://www.mofa.go.jp/announce/announce/2005/11/1118.html (accessed 16 December 2005).

[632] David Sanger, 'US and Seoul share a goal but not a strategy on North Korea', New York Times, 17 November 2005.

[633] See David Sanger, 'US and Seoul share a goal but not a strategy on North Korea', New York Times, 17 November 2005. Also, David Rennie, 'Rumsfeld calls for regime change in North Korea', Daily Telegraph (UK), 23 April 2003.

[634] 'North Korea proposed five-step plan to disarm at latest talks', China Daily, 14 November 2005, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-11/14/content_494486.htm (accessed 5 January 2006).

[635] 'North Korea proposed five-step plan to disarm at latest talks, China Daily, 14 November 2005, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-11/14/content_494486.htm (accessed 3 March 2006).

[636] Embassy of the People's Republic of China in the United States, 'Six Party talks restart with mixed hope and caution', http://www.china-embassy.org/eng/xw/t220638.htm (accessed 2 March 2006).

[637] Ms Anne Wu, 'What China whispers to North Korea', The Washington Quarterly, vol. 28, no. 2, p. 36.

[638] Professor Chung Min Lee, 'China's Rise, Asia's Dilemma, The National Interest, Fall 2005, p. 91.

[639] Professor Chung Min Lee, 'China's Rise, Asia's Dilemma, The National Interest, Fall 2005, p. 91.

[640] The Hon. Alexander Downer MP, 'Australia and Korea: Shared interests, Shared future', Speech to the Korea Press Foundation, Seoul, 14 November 2005, p. 3.

[641] The Hon. Alexander Downer MP, 'Australia and Korea: Shared interests, Shared future', Speech to the Korea Press Foundation, Seoul, 14 November 2005, p. 5.

[642] See Michael Sheridan, 'N Korea gears up to make nukes', the Australian, 2 January 2006, p. 8.

[643] The Hon. Alexander Downer MP, 'Australia and Korea: Shared interests, Shared future', Speech to the Korea Press Foundation, Seoul, 14 November 2005, p. 1.

[644] Reuters, 'WFP sees $100 mln aid for N. Korea, with conditions', 26 February 2006, http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L23209665.htm (accessed 5 March 2006).

[645] Reuters, 'N. Korea to ask for food aid to resume—LA Times', 23 February 2006, http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/11406916600.htm (accessed 5 March 2006).

[646] Part VII, Report on the Work of the Government delivered by Premier Wen Jiabao at the Third Session of the 10^th National People's Congress, 5 March 2005.

[647] Cook Islands Government, 'China grants Cooks extra $4 million', News release, 30 April 2004.

[648] This indicates that they have more diplomats than any other country, rather than more diplomatic missions. See also Susan Windybank, 'The China Syndrome', Policy, vol. 21, no. 2, Winter 2005, p. 31.

[649] According to the DFAT website, http://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/taiwan/taiwan_brief.html#intrec (accessed 19 July 2005).

[650] Dr Frank Frost, 'Directions in Australia's foreign relations—implications for east Asia and Australia', Research brief, Parliamentary Library, p. 52.

[651] Cook Islands Government, 'China grants Cooks extra $4 million', News Release, 30 April 2004.

[652] Transcript, 'Pacific: Minister's concerns over Chinese presence', Pacific Beat, 15 June 2005.

[653] Transcript of hearing before the Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere of the Committee on International Relations, House of Representatives, 109^th Congress, First Session, 6 April 2005, p. 75.

[654] John Henderson and Benjamin Reilly, 'Dragon in Paradise: China's rising star in Oceania', The National Interest, vol. 72, Summer 2003, p. 95.

[655] Quoted in 'One-China essential to ties with PIF nations', China Daily, 11 August 2004, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-08/11/content_364202.htm (accessed 21 February 2006).

[656] Dr Frank Frost, 'Directions in Australia's foreign relations—implications for east Asia and Australia', Research brief, Parliamentary Library, p. 52.

[657] John Henderson and Benjamin Reilly, 'Dragon in Paradise: China's rising star in Oceania', The National Interest, vol. 72, Summer 2003, p. 102.

[658] Cook Island Government, 'China grants Cooks extra $4 million', News release, 30 April 2004.

[659] DFAT, Committee Hansard, 16 June 2005, p. 14.

[660] Opening Remarks by People's Republic of China Vice Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, Post Forum Dialogue, 7 October 2000, Koror, Palau.

[661] The Post Pacific Forum is discussed in detail at paragraphs 10.53–10.54.

[662] Opening Statement by People's Republic of China Vice Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, Post Forum Dialogue, 30 October 2000, Tarawa, Kiribati.

[663] See for example, China Daily, 'Jiang encourages more economic Co-operation', 4 July 2002. See slso, Foreign Ministry of the People's Republic of China, 'Hu Jintao meets Tongan King Taufa'ahau Tupou IV', 19 October 2004. Such statements generally confirm the country's adherence to the one-China policy. In 2002, Nauru recognised that there 'is but one China in the world, that the Government of the People's Republic of China is the sole legal government representing the whole of China and that Taiwan is an inalienable part of Chinese territory'. See Joint Communiqu of the Government of the People's Republic of China and the Government of the Republic of Nauru on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations, 22 July 2002. See also Foreign Ministry of the People's Republic of China, 'Premier Wen Jiabao Meets with Papua New Guinea Prime Minister Michael Somare', 10 February 2004.

[664] Foreign Ministry of the People's Republic of China, 'President Hu Jintao Meets with the Cook Islands' Prime Minister', 30 April 2004.

[665] Cook Islands Government, 'China grants Cooks extra $4 million', News release, 30 April 2004.

[666] U.S. Department of Defense, Annual Report to Congress: The Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2005, p. 40.

[667] DFAT, Committee Hansard, 16 June 2005, p. 5.

[668] Foreign Ministry of the People's Republic of China, 'China and Kiribati', 9 December 2003.

[669] Embassy of the PRC, Spokesperson's remarks on Kiribati's establishment of ties with Taiwan, http://www.china-embassy.org/eng/fyrth/t40558.htm (accessed 21 February 2006).

[670] Embassy of the PRC, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson's Press Conference, 25 November 2003, http://www.china-embassy.org/eng/fyrth/t50489.htm (accessed 21 February 2006).

[671] Embassy of the PRC, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson's Press Conference, 13 November 2003, http://www.china-embassy.org/eng/fyrth/t42193.htm (accessed 21 February 2006).

[672] See for example, the prepared statement by the Hon. James R. Lilley, former U.S. Ambassador to China, before the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, One Hundredth Sixth Congress, 20 April 1999; Answers to questions by the Minister for Foreign Affairs, the Minister for Trade and their representatives in the Senate, Question on Notice no. 2097, 4 December 2000. See also Testimony before U.S. Senate Committee on International Relations, 6 April 2005, p. 100.

[673] Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of China (Taiwan), Statements, 3 November 2005.

[674] Embassy of the PRC, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhang Qiyue's Press Conference on 11 November 2004 and Embassy of the PRC, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhang Qiyue's Remarks http://www.china-embassy.org/eng/fyrth/t169908.htm (accessed 21 February 2006).

[675] See for example Pacific Islands Report, 8 November 2005, http://pidp.eastwestcenter.org/pireport/2004/November/11-08-04.htm (accessed 6 December 2005).

[676] See 'Questions of corruption in the search for Pacific allies', Sydney Morning Herald, 7 February 2005, p. 16; 'Vanuatu MPs switch sides in protest', Sydney Morning Herald, 3 December 2004, p. 9; 'High stakes diplomacy in Vanuatu', Sydney Morning Herald, 27 November 2004, p. 13.

[677] Marc Neil-Jones, Interview with Taiwan Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Michael Ying-mao Kau and the Director General of the Department of East Asian and Pacific Affairs Dr Gary Song-Huann Lin, Port Vila Presse, 2 December 2004, http://www.news.vu/en/news/inter/041202-the-taiwan-side.shtml (accessed 21 February 2006).

[678] Foreign Ministry of the People's Republic of China, 'President Hu Jintao Meets with the Prime Minister of the Republic of Vanuatu', 25 February 2005; 'Vanuatu reiterates commitment to one-China policy: joint statement', China People's Daily, 26 February 2005, http://english.people.com.cn/200502/26/eng20050226_174755.html (accessed 28 February 2006).

[679] Foreign Ministry of the People's Republic of China, 'Joint Communique of the People's Republic of China and the Government of the Republic of Nauru on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations', Hong Kong, 21 July 2002.

[680] Foreign Ministry of the People's Republic of China, 'Joint Communique of the People's Republic of China and the Government of the Republic of Nauru on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations', Hong Kong, 21 July 2002.

[681] His Excellency Dr Eugene Chien, Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 'Statement by Ministry of Foreign Affairs Concerning Nauru', Press release, 22 July 2002, http://www.gio.gov.tw/taiwan-website/4-oa/20020722/2002072201.html (accessed 21 February 2006).

[682] Quoted in 'Nauru switches its allegiance back to Taiwan from China', Taipei Times, 15 May 2005, http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2005/05/15/2003254718/wiki (accessed 21 February 2006).

[683] Taiwan Foreign Relations website, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 'The Republic of China (Taiwan) and the Republic of Nauru restored full diplomatic relations on May 14, 2005', 17 July 2005, http://english.www.gov.tw/eGov/index.jsp?categid=33&recordid=82350 (accessed 4 January 2006). It should be noted that Taiwan on many occasions has publicly condemned China for what it perceives as China's attempts to block it from participating in organisations such as the World Health Organization (WHO). For example, in April 2005, Taiwan issued a press release that stated: 'If China truly respects the will of the people of Taiwan, it should display its sincerity by taking substantive actions to assist Taiwan to participate in the WHO on an equal footing, instead of using hypocritical language to deceive the international community'. Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of China (Taiwan), Press Release, 20 April 2005.

[684] Information on the three states was obtained from The World Factbook, http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/nr.html (accessed July 2005).

[685] See for example, Tanaka Yoshiaki, 'Pacific States and Japan in the Global Context: Democracy, Foreign Aid and Economic Development', in Security in Oceania in the 21^st Century, Eric Shibuya and Jim Rolfe (eds), Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, Hawaii, 2003, p. 97.

[686] Prime Minister the Hon. John Howard MP, Transcript, Address to the Asia Society Lunch, the Asia Society, New York City, 12 September 2005.

[687] Submission 17, p. 12 (AusAID) in Senate Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade References Committee, A Pacific Engaged: Australia's relations with Papua New Guinea and the islands states of the south-west Pacific, August 2003, p. 86.

[688] Ms Susan Windybank, 'The China Syndrome', Policy, vol. 21, no. 2, Winter 2005, p. 31.

[689] Professor Helen Hughes, 'Aid has failed the Pacific', Issue Analysis, no. 33, 7 May 2003, p. 13.

[690] Professor Helen Hughes, 'The Pacific is viable', Issue Analysis, no. 53, 2 December 2004, p. 9.

[691] Pacific Beat, 4 November 2002. See also Pacific Magazine, December 2003.

[692] Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 30.

[693] Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 7.

[694] Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 30.

[695] DFAT website, http://www.foreignminister.gov.au/transcripts/2005/050517_ds.html (accessed 21 February 2006).

[696] DFAT, Submission P19, p. 19.

[697] Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 42.

[698] See for example 'Questions of corruption in the search for Pacific Allies', Sydney Morning Herald, 7 February 2005, p. 16.

[699] OECD, Managing Aid: Practices of DAC Member Countries, November 2004, p. 17.

[700] Quoted in Nick Squires, 'Pacific Persuasion: Beijing's increasing economic muscle in the South Pacific', CIS Executive Highlights, no. 289 and published in South China Morning Post, 21 July 2005.

[701] See for example, Asia Times, 'China goes island hopping', 24 May 2001; Time Pacific Magazine, 'How to win friends', no. 22, 4 June 2001; Asia Times, 'Canberra uneasy as Beijing woos South Pacific', 16 August 2001.

[702] Benjamin Reilly, 'State functioning and state failure in the South Pacific', Australian Journal of International Affairs, vol. 58, no. 4, December 2004, p. 479.

[703] See comments by the Hon. Dan Burton, a representative in Congress from the State of Indiana and Chairman, subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere, Hearing before the subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere of the Committee on Internal Relations, House of Representatives, One hundred and ninth Congress, First Session. 6 April 2005, p. 19. Although referring to China's activities in Latin America, the observation also has relevance to the Southwest Pacific.

[704] John Henderson and Benjamin Reilly, 'Dragon in Paradise: China's rising star in Oceania', The National Interest, vol. 72, Summer 2003, p. 98.

[705] Testimony before US Senate Committee on International Relations, 6 April 2005, p. 100.

[706] Time Pacific Magazine, 'How to win friends', no. 22, 4 June 2001; Space, 'South Tarawa Island, Republic of Kirbati, http://www.globalsecurity.org/space/world/china/kiribati.htm (accessed 8 December 2005).

[707] Time Pacific Magazine, 'How to win friends', no. 22, 4 June 2001

[708] The Kiribati & Tuvalu Association newsletter, no. 5, November 1999, http://www.wysiwyg.co.nz/kiribati/kt9911.html (accessed 21 February 2006).

[709] Senate Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade References Committee, A Pacific Engaged: Australia's relations with Papua New Guinea and the islands states of the south-west Pacific, August 2003, p. 132.

[710] OECD, The DAC Guidelines: Strategies for Sustainable Development: Guidance for Development C006F-operation, 2001, p. 11.

[711] Senate Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade References Committee, A Pacific Engaged: Australia's relations with Papua New Guinea and the islands states of the south-west Pacific, August 2003, p. 132.

[712] Australia, Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Nauru, New Zealand, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Republic of the Marshall Islands, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu and Vanuatu.

[713] The participants in the Post Pacific Islands Forum are Canada, China, the European Union, France, India, Indonesia, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, the U.K. and the U.S.

[714] Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, 'Pacific Islands Forum', Press release, 9 December 2003, http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/wjb/zzjg/gjs/gjzzyhy/2616/t55904.htm (accessed 21 February 2006).

[715] Opening Remarks by Mr Jiechi, Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, 11^th Post Forum Dialogue, Koror, Palau, 7 October 1999.

[716] Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Press Statement, no. 87/04, 22 November 2004.

[717] Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, Press Statement, no. 31–40, 19 May 2004.

[718] Opening Statement by People's Republic of China Vice Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, Post Forum Dialogue, 30 October 2000, Tarawa, Kiribati.

[719] This statement was reported widely. See for example, '"One-China' essential to ties with PIF nations', China Daily, 11 August 2004; 'One-China Policy Essential to Ties in Pacific', China through a Lens, 11 August 2004; 'Being Cautious Pacific Nations', Taipei Times, 12 August 2004; 'China Warns Pacific Nations against Siding with Taiwan', Agence France Presse, 11 August 2004.

[720] Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 29.

[721] Senate Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade References Committee, A Pacific Engaged: Australia's relations with Papua New Guinea and the islands states of the south-west Pacific, August 2003, p. xxvii.

[722] Prime Minister the Hon. John Howard MP, Transcript, Address to the Lowy Institute for International Policy, 'Australia in the World', Westin Hotel, Sydney, 31 March 2005.

[723] See paragraphs 2.9–2.12, 2.13–16, 2.23–33.

[724] Numerous commentators refer to the uncertainty that surrounds China's long-term strategic intentions. See for example, Shannon Tow, 'Southeast Asia in the Sino-U.S. Strategic Balance', Contemporary Southeast Asia Singapore, December 2004, vol. 26, Issue 3; Elizabeth Economy, China's Rise in Southeast Asia: Implications for Japan and the United States, (updated version prepared for Japan Focus of an article that appeared in Journal of Contemporary China, August 2005) Japan Focus, 6 October 2005; Robert G. Sutter, 'China's Rise in Asia—Promises, Prospects and Implications for the United States', Asia–Pacific Center for Security Studies, Occasional Paper Series, February 2005, p. 5; David Shambaugh, 'China engages Asia: Reshaping the Regional Order', International Security, vol. 29, no. 3, Winter 2004/5, p. 67; Chung Min Lee, 'China's Rise, Asia's Dilemma', The National Interest, Fall 2005, p. 89.

[725] ibid.

[726] Submission P54, p. 9.

[727] Professor Stuart Harris, 'Does China matter? The global economic issues', Department of International Relations, ANU, Canberra, September 2003, p. 3.

[728] Professor John Fitzgerald, Committee Hansard, 27 June 2005, p. 82.

[729] Submission P2, p. 4.

[730] Professor Bruce Jacobs, Committee Hansard, 27 June 2005, p. 36.

[731] Dr Stephen Morgan, Committee Hansard, 27 June 2005, pp. 8–9.

[732] Prime Minister the Hon. John Howard MP, Transcript, Address to the Asia Society Lunch, the Asia Society, New York City, 12 September 2005.

[733] See paragraph 3.22.

[734] See paragraph 3.53–3.63.

[735] See paragraph 3.68.

[736] For example, the Singaporean Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr George Yeo, stated that 'ASEAN is a" paper machine"...That we seem to spend a lot of time talking, back tracking and then moving forward again. Not always moving in a straight upward course. Let us take a step back and look at ASEAN in its historical development. It has been very good for all of Southeast Asia...a weak ASEAN would mean that Southeast Asia would be balkanized and new security problems will appear.' Singapore, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Remarks by Singapore Minister for Foreign Affairs, George Yeo, Parliament on the Strategic Overview, 4 March 2005.

[737] Transcript, Interview with Neil Mitchell, Radio 3AW, 20 August 2004.

[738] Transcript of the Prime Minister the Hon John Howard MP, Interview with Neil Mitchell, Radio 3AW, 17 October 2003; U.S. Department of State, 'Remarks by President Bush and Prime Minister Howard of Australia in a Photo Opportunity', October 2003, Parliament House, Canberra.

[739] Peter Jennings, 'Getting China Right: Australia's policy options for dealing with China', ASPI Strategic Insights, October 2005, p. 2.

[740] See paragraph 5.47.

[741] Dr Peter Edwards, 'Permanent Friends? Historical Reflections on the Australian-American Alliance', Lowy Institute Paper 08, p. 51.

[742] See chapter 6, pp. 86–90.

[743] See chapter 6, pp. 94–98.

[744] Prime Minister the Hon. John Howard MP, Transcript, Address to the Lowy Institute for International Policy, 'Australia in the World', Westin Hotel, Sydney, 31 March 2005.

[745] See Prime Minister the Hon. John Howard MP, Transcript, Address to the Lowy Institute for International Policy, 'Australia in the World', Westin Hotel, Sydney, 31 March 2005.

[746] The Hon. Alexander Downer MP, Transcript, Doorstop interview, Sydney, 18 April 2005. The Prime Minister, the Hon. John Howard, expressed similar sentiments: '...the bilateral relationship between China and Japan is not something that I give lectures to either country on...I'm obviously keen to see the bilateral relationship being strong and positive...', Transcript of the Prime Minister The Hon. John Howard MP Press Conference, Imperial Hotel, Tokyo, 20 April 2005.

[747] See the findings of the Senate Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade References Committee in Japan's Economy: Implications for Australia, August 2000, p. 227.

[748] Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 28.

[749] See paragraphs 10.28–29–10.30.

[750] See for example 'Questions of corruption in the search for Pacific Allies', Sydney Morning Herald, 7 February 2005, p. 16.

[751] Senate Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade References Committee, Opportunities and challenges: Australia's relationship with China, pp. 237–238, 242–243.

[752] Mr Allan Gyngell, Time International (South Pacific ed.), Issue 16, New York, 25 April 2005, p. 27.

[753] Submission P26, p. 9.

[754] Professor Hugh White, 'It's a delicate dance to tiptoe between colliding giants', Sydney Morning Herald, 13 April 2005, p. 9. See chapter 3 particularly the section headed Chinese Soft power in East Asia—peace, progress and cooperation, pp. 24–26 and in particular paragraphs 3.7 and 5.43.

[755] Dr Brendan Taylor, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 15. See also paragraphs 5.12–5.13. See also paragraphs 5.12

[756] Professor Paul Dibb, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, p. 20.

[757] Professor William Tow, Committee Hansard, 13 September 2005, pp. 29–30.

[758] Report on the work of the Government , March 2005.

[759] , Australian Commodities: forecasts and issues, vol. 12, no. 2, June quarter 2005, p. 275.

[760] Address by the Prime Minister, the Hon. John Howard MP, to the Lowy Institute for International Policy, Sydney, 'Australia in the World", Thursday, 31 March 2005, p. 15.

[761] H.E.Ong Keng Yong, Secretary General of ASEAN, 'Developing ASEAN-China Relations: Realities and Prospects', Keynote address at the ASEAN-China Forum 2004, Singapore, 23 June 2004.

[762] H.E.Ong Keng Yong, Secretary General of ASEAN, 'Developing ASEAN-China Relations: Realities and Prospects', Keynote address at the ASEAN-China Forum 2004, Singapore, 23 June 2004.

[763] H.E.Ong Keng Yong, Secretary-General of ASEAN, 'The Chinese Business Leaders Summit Global Entrepolis, Singapore 2004, Keynote address, 11 October 2004.

[764] Transcript, "Pacific: Minister's concerns over Chinese presence', Pacific Beat, 15 June 2005.

[765] Department of Defence, Submission 9, p.

[766] Department of Defence, Submission 9, p.

[767] Department of Defence, Submission 9, p.

[768] G. Sheridan, 'Regional Overview', The Australian, 25 August 2005, p.2