Footnotes
Chapter 2 - Future oil demand and supply
[1]
Thus methane CH4 and ethane C2H6 are
'natural gas'; propane C3H8 and butane C4H10
may be present in natural gas mixtures and are used to make liquefied petroleum
gas; the C5-12 fractions make automotive gasoline; the C14-16 fractions make
diesel oil, etc.
[2]
Other gases also contribute. Methane, the principal component of natural
gas, is a powerful greenhouse gas in its own right.
[3]
'The entire resource base (Total petroleum initially in place) is
generally accepted to be all those quantities of petroleum contained in the
subsurface...' Society of Petroleum Engineers, Glossary of Terms Used, at www.spe.org/spe/jsp/basic_pf/0,,1104_3306579,00.html
An alternative definition is that resources are reserves plus all the petroleum
that may eventually become available: 'In practice resource estimates
are made only for those accumulations that are seen as potentially economic at
some time in the future.' This is a narrower definition of the resource. McCabe
P.J., 'Energy Resources - Cornucopia or Empty Barrel' AAPG Bulletin,
vol. 82 no. 12 November 1998, p. 2115.
[4]
'Oil reserves': notes to BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006, at
http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle.do?categoryId=9011008&contentId=7021601
[5]
'Oil reserves': notes to BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006.
Society of
Petroleum Engineers: Petroleum Reserves Definitions at http://www.spe.org/spe/jsp/basic/0,2396,1104_12169_0,00.html
'Probable' and 'possible' are commonly defined as - taking proved and probable
reserves together: there is a 50 per cent probability that the true figure is
more, and a 50 per cent probability that it is less. Taking proved, probable
and possible reserves together: there is a 10 per cent probability that the
true figure is more, and a 90 per cent probability that it is less. According
to the SPE, 'the effect of possible future improvements in economic conditions
and technological development can be expressed by allocating appropriate
quantities of reserves to the probable and possible classifications'.
[6]
T.R.Klett, D.L. Gautier & T.S. Ahlbrandt, ‘An Evaluation of the US
Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment 2000’, AAPG Bulletin, vol. 89
no. 8 August 2005, p. 1036.
[7]
'Oil reserves': notes to BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006, at
http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle.do?categoryId=9009529&contentId=7017933
[8]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2005, p. 126.
[9]
This would be expected given the definition of 'reserves' as 'known commercially
viable accumulations.'
[10]
Lynch M.C., The New Pessimism about Petroleum Resources: Debunking the
Hubbert Model (and Hubbert Modelers),n.d..
[11]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2005, p. 124.
[12]
Eg ASPO Ireland, Submission 10, p. 2. Definitions are discussed in
IEA, Resources to Reserves - Oil and Gas Technologies for the Energy Markets
of the Future, 2005, p. 26.
[13]
It is suggested that the nonconventional oil originally in place is up to
7,000 billion barrels, of which economically recoverable reserves are about 600
billion barrels. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2004, p.
95. Hirsch R. & others, Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts,
Mitigation and Risk Management, 2005, p. 40. ABARE, Australian
Commodities June 2006, p. 305.
[14]
As gas flows more easily than oil, a gas field can be produced at a high
level for longer, but will then decline much more suddenly when the reserve is
exhausted.
[15]
This phenomenon for an individual oilfield does not necessarily imply
the same for a larger region. In theory a certain rate of production from a
larger region could be maintained indefinitely, providing new oilfields
of the needed size could be discovered at a constant rate indefinitely. But
this is not the case: the rate of discovery of new oil has been declining for
many years: see paragraph 3.38. Many nations are past their peak of oil
production as noted.
[16]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2005, p. 140.
[17]
Chevron, quoting Worldwatch Institute, Vital Signs, 2005, p. 30: http://www.willyoujoinus.com/issues/alternatives/
[18]
International Energy Agency, Resources to Reserves - Oil and Gas
Technologies for the Energy Markets of the Future, 2005, p. 14.
[19]
For gas, which flows more easily, the recovery factor is naturally higher
- about 70% - so future improvements to the recovery factor are less
significant. International Energy Agency, Resources to Reserves - Oil and
Gas Technologies for the Energy Markets of the Future, 2005, p. 14.
[20]
BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2006.
[21]
In a period of declining production a constant R/P ratio can be maintained
by matching production to reserves correctly as both approach zero. In the USA
in the late 20th century the R/P ratio was stable at about 10 over 20 years of
mostly declining production. McCabe P.J., 'Energy Resources - Cornucopia or
Empty Barrel' AAPG Bulletin, vol. 82 no. 12 November 1998, p. 2115.
[22]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2004, pp 31 and
41. Primary energy consumption is the sum of end-use energy consumption and
energy lost in transmission or conversion processes.
[23]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2004, pp 58 and
84.
[24]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2005, pp 63-4 and
140.
[25]
ABARE, Australian Energy: national and state projections to 2029-2030,
2005, p. 23ff.
[26]
ABARE, Australian Energy: national and state projections to 2029-2030,
2005, p. 24.
[27]
Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics, Is the World Running Out of
Oil? A review of the debate. BTRE working paper 61, 2005.
[28]
BP, Statistical Review of World Energy, 2006, pp 6 and 8.
‘Production includes crude oil, shale oil, oil sands and natural gas liquids.’
The OPEC countries are Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar,
Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela.
[29]
1 cubic metre = 35.515 cubic feet. 6,000 cubic feet of gas = 1 barrel of
oil equivalent (US Geological Survey, World Petroleum Assessment 2000,
table AR-1). By these figures natural gas production is 16 billion barrels of
oil equivalent, and proven natural gas reserves are 1,065 billions barrels of
oil equivalent, which is slightly less than proven oil reserves.
[30]
Year on year change in reserves is found by subtracting production and
adding new discoveries and reserve growth. On BP’s figures world oil reserves
were 770 billion barrels in 1985, 1,027 billion barrels in 1995, 1,194 billion
barrels in 2004 and 1,200 billion barrels in 2005.
[31]
The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose steadily (with some
fluctuations) from about $US35 per barrel in early 2004 to $US78 in July 2006.
It then declined to $US63 in September 2006 and $US59 in early November. ABARE,
Australian Commodities, vol. 13 no. 3, September 2006, p. 499. S.
Kinsella (ABARE), personal communication, November 2006.
[32]
For example, P. Davies (BP), Quantifying Energy - BP Statistical Review
of World Energy 2006, speech 14 June 2006. International Energy Agency, World
Energy Outlook 2005, p. 5.
[33]
ABARE, Australian Commodities, June 2006, p. 303ff.
[34]
In the market of economics textbooks, supply is the amount brought to
market, and demand is the amount sold. Demand in this sense cannot exceed
supply. In the future oil supply debate, discussion of whether supply will be
adequate to meet demand implicitly means 'demand as it would be if supply was
unconstrained'.
[35]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2005, pp 45, 83
and 140. The reference scenario assumes no policies to curb energy demand or
greenhouse gas emissions beyond what governments have committed to already: p.
59.
[36]
In the World Energy Outlook 2005 a brief relevant comment on the
longer term future is: 'Using a more optimistic assumption of 3,200 billion
barrels [of ultimately recoverable oil] pushes the production peak out to
around 2035...non-conventional sources, including tar sands in Canada,
extra-heavy oil in Venezuela and gas-to-liquids output, fill the growing gap
between conventional oil production and global oil demand.' p. 140.
A 2003 IEA
report considered energy scenarios to 2050. The scenarios describe different
responses to environmental concerns. All scenarios assume that 'there are
sufficient fossil energy resources to meet demand in the next 50 years; whether
they will actually be extracted depends on the pace and direction of
technological change and on the level of environmental concern.' International
Energy Agency, Energy to 2050 - scenarios for a sustainable future,
2003.
[37]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2005, p. 46.
[38]
OPEC: Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi
Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela.
[39]
OECD: 23 European countries plus USA, Canada, Mexico, Australia, New
Zealand, Korea and Japan.
[40]
Transition economies: 23 nations of eastern Europe and former Soviet Union.
[41]
Conventional oil: produced from underground reservoirs by wells.
Non-conventional oil includes shale oil, synthetic crude and products derived
from oil or tar sands and extra-heavy oil, coal- and biomass-based liquids and
the output of natural gas to liquids (GTL) plants.
[42]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2005, pp 63-5.
[43]
US Geological Survey: World Petroleum Assessment 2000, table AR-1,
p. ES-1. New work for USGS 2000 considered the world except the United States.
Figures for the United States were imported from previous work to give world
totals.
Note that 'with
potential to be added to reserves by 2025' is not an estimate of the ultimately
recoverable resource (URR). A corresponding estimate of the URR, since it would
include post-2025 additions, would be higher. USGS 2000 disavowed any attempt
to estimate the URR (p. IN-5). However this proviso is commonly overlooked, and
its figures are quoted as though they are an estimate of the URR - including by
the International Energy Agency (for example, World Energy Outlook 2005,
p. 126).
[44]
USGS 2000 estimates relating to future events are the output of a
mathematical procedure whose inputs were the authors' expert opinions on many
detailed matters, such as the likely number of undiscovered fields in a region,
the likely size of undiscovered fields, etc. The mean estimate is derived from
a probability distribution and is slightly greater than the P50 (50 per cent
probable) estimate.
[45]
US Geological Survey: World Petroleum Assessment 2000, p. ES-3
& figure ES-2.
[46]
US Geological Survey: World Petroleum Assessment 2000, figure ES-2.
[47]
Geoscience Australia, Submission 127, pp 13-16. Condensate is a
light oil-like liquid produced from gas fields. 1 barrel = 158.987 litres.
[48]
Dr C. Foster, Geoscience Australia, Proof Committee
Hansard, 12 May 2005, p. 4.
[49]
Geoscience Australia, Submission 127, p. 13.
[50]
Geoscience Australia, Submission 127, based on ABARE, Australian
Energy - National and State Projections to 2029-30, 2005, p. 63.
[51]
Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics, Is the World Running Out of
Oil? A review of the debate. BTRE working paper 61, 2005. Australian
Government, Securing Australia's Energy Future, Dept of
the Prime Minister and Cabinet, 2004, pp 82 and 137.
[52]
net self-sufficiency: the concept of self-sufficiency is somewhat
artificial in any case, as Australia both imports and exports crude oil. This
is because Australian crude oil is relatively light, and cannot provide the
full range of petroleum products. Australian production of crude oil,
condensate and LPG is about 95% of Australian consumption of liquid petroleum
products; however over half of Australian production is exported, and over half
of Australian refinery inputs is imported. ABARE, Australian Commodities,
vol. 13 no. l3, September 2006, pp 507-8. Australian Institute of Petroleum, Crude
Oil Pricing, at www.aip.com.au/pricing/crude.htm
[53]
Geoscience Australia, Additional information, 13 September 2006.
[54]
At 5883MJ per barrel: Geoscience Australia, Submission 12, p. 17.
[55]
ABARE, Australian Energy - national and state projections to 2029-30,
report 05.9, October 2005, pp 38 and 45. ABARE, Submission 166, p. 2.
[56]
ABARE, Additional information, 27 November 2006.
[57]
Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association, Submission
176, p. 8.
[58]
Treasury pointed out that as Australia is a net energy exporter, there
may be compensation for a rising oil price if the price of substitutes which Australia
exports also rises. Dr S. Kennedy, Department of the Treasury, Committee
Hansard, 18 August 2006, p. 22.
Chapter 3 - ’Peak oil’ concerns about future oil supply
[1]
Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics, Is the world running out
of oil - a review of the debate, working paper 61, 2005, p. 4.
[2]
Estimated recoverable reserves are 315 billion barrels of tar sands in Canada
and 270 billion barrels of heavy oil in Venezuela. ABARE, Australian
Commodities, June 2006, p. 305. This may be compared with current proved
reserves of conventional oil of 1,200 billion barrels.
[3]
Campbell C.J., The Availability of Non-conventional Oil and Gas,
n.d. [2006], p. 4. 'At least 3,345 barrels': see chapter 2, footnote 43.
[4]
ABARE, Australian Commodities, June 2006, p. 303ff. Dr J. Penm
(ABARE), Committee Hansard, 18 August 2006, p. 59.
[5]
For example, Campbell C.J. & Laherrere J.H, 'The End of Cheap Oil', Scientific
American, March 1998, p 78. Estimates by ASPO use detailed country-specific
data and assumptions (eg, extrapolating the production trend of countries
already in decline) to calculate country peaks, and sum these to estimate a
global peak. Campbell C.J., The Availability of Non-conventional Oil and Gas,
n.d. [2006].
[6]
Another line of argument is that oil discovery peaked in the 1960s, and
production may be expected to mirror discovery after a time lag. For example Laherrere
J., Forecasting Production From Discovery, May 2005, at http://www.mnforsustain.org/oil_forecasting_production_using_discovery_laherrere505.htm
[7]
US Energy Information Administration, Long Term World Oil Supply (A
Resource Base/ Production Path Analysis), July 2000, slide 18, at http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/presentations/2000/long_term_supply/index.htm
[8]
Lynch M.C., The New Pessimism about Petroleum Resources: Debunking
the Hubbert Model (and Hubbert Modellers), n.d.. Similarly: 'Estimates of
declining reserves and production are incurably wrong because they treat as a
quantity what is actually a dynamic process driven by growing knowledge...Because
the concept of a fixed limit is wrong, the predicted famine always fails.' Adelman
M.A. & Lynch M.C., 'Fixed View of Resource Limits Creates Undue
Pessimism', Oil and Gas Journal, vol. 95 no. 14, 7 April 1997, p. 56.
[9]
Oil and Gas Journal, vol. 101 no. 32, 18 August 2003, editorial. Similarly: 'The total mineral in the earth is an irrelevant non-binding
constraint. If expected finding-development costs exceed the expected net
revenues, investment dries up and the industry disappears. Whatever is left in
the ground is unknown, probably unknowable, but surely unimportant: a
geological fact of no economic interest.' Adelman M.A., 'Mineral depletion with
special reference to petroleum, The Review of Economics and Statistics,
vol. 72 no. 1, February 1990, p. 1.
[10]
McCabe P.J., 'Energy Resources - Cornucopia or Empty Barrel', AAPG
Bulletin, vol. 82 no. 11, November 1998, p. 2122.
[11]
'Oil is, after all, a finite resource. The larger message in OGJ's series
is that human ingenuity is not.' Oil and Gas Journal, vol. 101 no. 32, 18 August 2003, editorial.
[12]
For example: 'How rapidly will production decline after the peak?... For
conventional oil, important horizons of finiteness are indeed coming into
view.' Oil and Gas Journal, 18 August 2003, editorial. 'Of course, oil
production must peak one day.' IEA, World Energy Outlook 2005, p. 140.
The US Energy Information Administration has estimated dates for the peak of
conventional oil for various scenarios, broadly following the 'Hubbert curve'
methodology. A similar exercise by the IEA estimated a peak of conventional oil
production between 2013 and 2037 depending on assumptions. See paragraph 3.79.
[13]
Calling the URR 'a dynamic variable' (Lynch) depends on defining URR as
'the amount of oil which is thought recoverable given existing
technology and economics....' (emphasis added. See paragraph 2.9). In this scheme
the URR is nothing more than a number, calculated today by a certain
methodology, which may be different when calculated tomorrow by the same
methodology (given updated data).
The more common
definition of URR seems to be 'the amount of oil which will ever be
recovered' (BP). Peak oil arguments concerning the 'Hubbert curve' must
define the URR in this way. This URR is a definite number which does not change
over time. However it cannot be known exactly until production has ended, and
there is great uncertainty in estimating it before then.
Much of the
'economic optimist' critique of peak oil concerns probably comes down to a view
that estimates of the URR (in the second sense) are so uncertain that they are
not useful for planning purposes.
[14]
Campbell C.J., The Availability of Non-conventional Oil and Gas,
n.d. [2006], p. 4. US Geological Survey, World Petroleum Assessment
2000. 'At least 3,345 billion barrels': see chapter 2, footnote 43.
[15]
K.Aleklett & C.J.Campbell, The Peak and Decline of World Oil and
Gas Production, n.d. [2003], p. 1.
[16]
K.Aleklett & C.J.Campbell, The Peak and Decline of World Oil and
Gas Production, n.d. [2003], p. 6.
[17]
Campbell C.J., The Availability of Non-conventional Oil and Gas,
n.d. [2006], p. 3.
[18]
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006, p. 6.
[19]
US Geological Survey, World Petroleum Assessment 2000, p. RG-2.
IEA, World Energy Outlook 2004, p. 87. World Energy Outlook 2005, p.
128.
For UNECE work see http://www.unece.org/ie/se/reserves.html
A resume of the project is in UNECE Weekly, no.76, 12-16 July 2004, at http://www.unece.org/highlights/unece_weekly/weekly_2004/UNECE_weekly_2004-76.pdf
[20]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2005, pp 123-126.
[21]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2005, pp 128-131.
[22]
Dr Nansen G. Saleri, 'Future of Global Oil Supply: Saudi Arabia',
conference presentation 24 February 2004, Saudi-US Relations Information
Service, at www.saudi-us-relations.org/energy/saudi-energy-saleri.html
[23]
ABARE, Australian Commodities, vol. 13 no. 3, September 2006, pp 502-3.
[24]
Porter E.D., Are We Running Out of Oil? American Petroleum
Institute Policy Analysis and Strategic Planning Department, discussion paper
81, December 1995, p. 37.
[25]
US Geological Survey, World Petroleum Assessment 2000, p. RG-10ff.
[26]
ASPO Australia, Submission 135C, pp 6-7.
[27]
K. Aleklett & C.J. Campbell, The Peak and Decline of World Oil and
Gas Production, n.d., p. 9.
[28]
US Geological Survey, World Petroleum Assessment 2000, pp RG-12-13.
[29]
Klett T.R. & others, 'An evaluation of the US Geological Survey World
Petroleum Assessment 2000', AAPG Bulletin, vol. 59 no. 8, August
2005, p. 1033ff. Canadian tar sands - the greatest single addition to reserves
in the last decade - were excluded from this assessment.
[30]
International Energy Agency, Resources to Reserves - Oil & Gas
Technologies for the Energy Markets of the Future, 2005, p. 38.
[31]
Oil reserves have continued to increase, but this includes reserve growth,
as discussed above.
[32]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 90.
[33]
Longwell H. (ExxonMobil), 'The Future of the Oil and Gas Industry: past
approaches, new challenges', World Energy vol. 5 no. 3, 2002, p. 103.
Similarly, F. Harper (BP exploration consultant): 'Whilst some corners of the
planet still remain to be explored, sufficient exploration has been carried out
globally to indicate there won't be another discovery on the scale of the
fields in the Middle East...[technology] will do something to defer the peak, but
it's not a magic bullet.' remarks at an ASPO workshop, May 2004, at http://www.gasandoil.com/goc/features/fex42409.htm
[34]
ASPO Ireland, Submission 10, p. 3.
[35]
ASPO Ireland, Submission 10, p. 3. Longwell H. (ExxonMobil), 'The
Future of the Oil and Gas Industry: past approaches, new challenges', World
Energy vol. 5 no. 3, 2002, p. 100ff. A similar picture emerges in Francis
Harper (exploration consultant, BP), Ultimate Hydrocarbon
Resources in the 21st Century. AAPG conference 'Oil and Gas in the 21st
Century', September 1999, UK. Quoted in Illum K., Oil Based Technology and
Economy - prospects for the future, Danish Board of Technology and Society
of Danish Engineers, 2004, p. 62.
[36]
ASPO Ireland, Submission 10, p. 3. This assumes that reserves, once
found, will be produced in a timely way: see IEA, Resources to Reserves -
Oil & Gas Technologies for the Energy Markets of the Future, 2005, p. 39.
This seems a reasonable assumption: 'There is a ready market for additional oil
flows. The days of large oil companies having substantial reserves banks are
largely over. This means that any substantial finds will become development
projects in a very limited time, unless actively inhibited by politics or
access.' Petroleum Review, January 2004, editorial.
[37]
This would be explained as rational market behaviour: there is no point spending
money prematurely on exploration to add to reserves which are already ample.
[38]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2004, pp 97-8. World
Energy Outlook 2006, pp 89-90.
[39]
This was done by a bottom-up expert assessment in which geologists made
judgments about the likely number and size of undiscovered fields in 246
assessment units. US Geological Survey, World Petroleum Assessment 2000,
p. AR -1ff.
[40]
Klett T.R. & others, 'An Evaluation of the US Geological Survey World
Petroleum Assessment 2000', AAPG Bulletin, vol. 89 no. 8, August 2005,
p. 1034.
[41]
Klett T.R. & others, 'An Evaluation of the US Geological Survey World
Petroleum Assessment 2000', AAPG Bulletin, vol. 89 no. 8, August 2005,
p. 1038. K. Aleklett & C.J. Campbell, The Peak and Decline of World Oil
and Gas Production, n.d., p. 9.
[42]
Aleklett K., International Energy Agency Accepts Peak Oil, n.d., at
www.peakoil.net/uhdsg/weo2004/theuppsalacode.html
[43]
Klett T.R. & others, 'An Evaluation of the US Geological Survey World
Petroleum Assessment 2000', AAPG Bulletin, vol. 89 no. 8, August 2005,
p. 1039.
[44] According to
the IEA, over the last 15 years the elasticity of exploration and production
expenditures to the crude oil price has averaged 0.5 - in other words, a 10%
increase in the price has led to a 5% increase in exploration and production
expenditure, 'boosting new discoveries.' World Energy Outlook 2004, p. 90.
ABARE reports that 'capital investment and exploration activity have been
rising over the past few years in response to higher oil prices.' Australian
Commodities, vol. 13 no. 3, September 2006, p. 500.
[45]
Longwell H. (ExxonMobil), 'The Future of the Oil and Gas Industry: past
approaches, new challenges', World Energy vol. 5 no. 3, 2002, p. 102.
[46]
ASPO, Presentation on Oil Depletion, Part 1, n.d., at http://www.oildepletion.org/roger/ASPO_info/ASPO_tutorial/tutorial_pdf-files/ASPO-1_notes.pdf
[47]
International Energy Agency, Resources to Reserves - Oil & Gas
Technologies for the Energy Markets of the Future, 2005, p. 65.
[48]
ExxonMobil, Tomorrow's Energy, 2004, p. 6.
[49]
'This process [the USGS 2000 methodology] clearly assumes some enhanced
oil recovery (EOR), since enhanced oil recovery may already be assumed in the
figures for proven reserves, also because the reserve growth curve, calibrated
on United States data, contains the amount of EOR historically performed in
that country.' International Energy Agency, Resources to Reserves - Oil
& Gas Technologies for the Energy Markets of the Future, 2005, p. 63.
[50]
International Energy Agency, Resources to Reserves - Oil & Gas
Technologies for the Energy Markets of the Future, 2005, pp 19 and 33-34.
[51]
International Energy Agency, Resources to Reserves - Oil & Gas
Technologies for the Energy Markets of the Future, 2005, pp 51-2.
[52]
Campbell C.J., The Imminent Peak of World Oil Production,
presentation to a House of Commons All-Party Committee 7 July 1999.
[53]
F. Harper (BP exploration consultant), quoted in Quoted in Illum K., Oil
Based Technology and Economy - prospects for the future, Danish Board of
Technology and Society of Danish Engineers, 2004, p. 61.
[54]
Campbell C.J., The Availability of Non-conventional Oil and Gas,
n.d. [2006], p. 4.
[55]
ExxonMobil, Tomorrow's Energy, 2006, p. 5.
[56]
ABARE in 2006 reported recoverable reserves of 315 billion barrels of tar
sands in Canada and 270 billion barrels of heavy oil in Venezuela: Australian
Commodities, June 2006, p. 305.
[57]
International Energy Agency, Resources to Reserves - Oil & Gas
Technologies for the Energy Markets of the Future, 2005, pp 63, 65, 73, 75,
and 82. Estimated resources in place: heavy oil and bitumen 6,000 billion
barrels (of which Canada 2,500 billion, Venezuela 1,500 billion); oil shale
2,600 billion (of which USA 1,600 billion). Reason for discrepancies between
the numbers and the graphic is unclear. The report also says 'super-deep
reservoirs... could easily reach 300 billion barrels oil equivalent': p. 73. This
does not appear to be included in the graphic. 'Additional enhanced oil
recovery potential' of 300 billion barrels assumes a 'conservative recovery
rate increase of 5 per cent of oil in place' above that implied by the USGS
2000 methodology: p. 63.
[58]
Hubbert gave two scenarios based on higher or lower estimates of remaining
resources in 1955. Production history has been reasonably close to the high estimate.
McCabe P.J., 'Energy Resources - Cornucopia or Empty Barrel', AAPG Bulletin,
vol. 82 no. 11, November 1998, p. 2122.
[59]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2004, p. 101.
[60]
Porter E.D., Are We Running Out of Oil? American Petroleum
Institute Policy Analysis and Strategic Planning Department, discussion paper
81, December 1995, p. 17.
[61]
The implication is that Hubbert's reasoning concerning resource scarcity
was completely wrong, but purely by chance market forces later created an
outcome for the USA that looked the same as his prediction. McCabe P.J., 'Energy
Resources - Cornucopia or Empty Barrel', AAPG Bulletin, vol. 82 no. 11,
November 1998, p. 2110. Porter E.D., Are We Running Out of Oil? American
Petroleum Institute Policy Analysis and Strategic Planning Department,
discussion paper 81, December 1995, p. 19.
[62]
Duncan R., 'Three world oil forecasts predict peak oil production', Oil
and Gas Journal vol. 101 no. 14, 2003, pp 18-21. Hallock J.L. & others,
'Forecasting the limits to the availability and diversity of global conventional
oil supply', Energy 29 (2004), pp 1679 and 1685.
[63]
International Energy Agency, Medium Term Oil Market Report, July
2006, p. 23.
[64]
The source does not say what the modelled demand growth rates were.
[65]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2005, p. 140.
[66]
J.H.Wood, G.R.Long & D.F.Morehouse, Long Term World Oil Supply
Scenarios - the future is neither as bleak or as rosy as some assert, US
Energy Information Administration, 2004, pp 5-7.
[67]
International Energy Agency, Medium Term Oil Market Report, July
2006, p. 23.
[68]
R.L. Hirsch, R. Bezdek & R. Wendling, Peaking of World Oil
Production - impacts, mitigation and risk management, 2005, p. 69. Hallock J.L.
& others, 'Forecasting the limits to the availability and diversity of
global conventional oil supply', Energy 29 (2004), p. 1683. Cavallo A.,
'Predicting the peak in world oil production', Natural Resources Research
vol. 11 no. 3, 2002, pp 187-195.
[69]
ASPO Australia, Submission 132, p. 2.
[70]
Hirsch R., Peaking of World Oil Production - an overview, Atlantic
Council workshop on Transatlantic Energy Issues, 23 October 2006, p. 11ff.
[71]
Campbell C.J., The Availability of Non-conventional Oil and Gas, n.d.
[2006], p. 4.
[72]
International Energy Agency, Medium Term Oil Market Report, July
2006, p. 23.
[73]
Gas declines differently because of its different properties.
[74]
ExxonMobil, The Lamp, 2003 no. 1. International Energy Agency, World
Energy Outlook 2005, p. 103. International Energy Agency, Medium Term
Oil Market Report, July 2006, p. 23. ASPO Australia, Submission 135,
p. 2. Chevron, quoting Worldwatch Institute, Vital Signs, 2005, p. 30: http://www.willyoujoinus.com/issues/alternatives/
[75]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2004, p. 121.
Rehaag K. (IEA), Is the World Facing a Third Oil Shock? Presentation to
FVG & IBP workshop, Rio de Janeiro, 12 July 2004, p. 27.
[76]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2004, p. 103.
Similarly: 'By 2015, we will need to find, develop and produce a volume of new
oil and gas that is equal to eight out of every 10 barrels being produced
today.' ExxonMobil, The Lamp, 2003 no. 1.
[77]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 40.
[78]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2005, p. 140.
[79]
Simmons M.R., Twilight in the Desert: the Coming Saudi Oil Shock and
the World Economy, c2005. Jarrell J., 'Another Day in the Desert: A
Response to the Book "Twilight in the Desert"', Geopolitics of
Energy, vol. 17 no. 10, October 2005. Saudi-US Relations Information
Service newsletter, 25 August 2004. Saudi Arabian oil production is currently
about 11 million barrels per day: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006,
p.8
[80]
Petroleum Review, April 2006, editorial. It is unclear how
important untabulated smaller projects are expected to be compared with the
tabulated 'megaprojects'.
[81]
Skrebowski C., Megaprojects analysis explained, June 2006, at www.odac-info.org/bulletin/documents/megaprojects_explained.htm
[82]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 40.
[83]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2004, p. 95.
Another IEA report estimates the nonconventional resource as 2,500 billion
barrels in Canada, 1,500 billion in Venezuela, and 2,600 billion in oil shale (of
which 1,600 billion is in the USA): Resources to Reserves - Oil & Gas
Technologies for the Energy Markets of the Future, 2005, pp 75 and 82.
ABARE reports an estimate of shale oil resource in place of 2,900 billion
barrels: Australian Commodities, June 2006, p. 305.
[84]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2004, p. 95.
[85]
ABARE, Australian Commodities, June 2006, p. 305.
[86]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 98.
International Energy Agency, Resources to Reserves - Oil & Gas
Technologies for the Energy Markets of the Future, 2005, p. 17. ABARE,
Australian Commodities, June 2006, p. 305.
[87]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, pp 98-9.
[88]
Esser R., The Oil Industry Growth Challenge - expanding production
capacity, testimony to US House of Representatives Energy and Air Quality
Subcommittee, 7 December 2005, p. 6. International Energy Agency, World
Energy Outlook 2004, p. 115. There is no comparable discussion in World
Energy Outlook 2006 and it is unclear how Venezuelan heavy oil is accounted
for in the 2006 supply projection tables (pp 92-3). It is noted that 'Most
of the production of extra-heavy bituminous crude oil in Venezuela is now
classified as conventional oil.' p. 97.
[89]
Aleklett K.& Campbell C.J., The Peak and Decline of World Oil and
Gas Production, n.d., p. 14.
[90]
International Energy Agency, Resources to Reserves - Oil & Gas
Technologies for the Energy Markets of the Future, 2005, p. 78.
[91]
International Energy Agency, Resources to Reserves - Oil & Gas
Technologies for the Energy Markets of the Future, 2005, p. 81.
[92]
ABARE, Australian Commodities, June 2006, p. 303ff. Australian
Commodities, September 2006, p. 501.
[93]
Dr J. Penm (ABARE), Proof Committee Hansard, 18 August 2006, p. 59.
[94]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2005, pp 63-5.
[95]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, pp 38-9
and 60-2.
[96]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 60.
[97]
Hirsch, R.L. Bezdek R.& Wendling R., Peaking of World Oil
Production - impacts, mitigation and risk management.2005, p. 26. US Energy
Information Administration, Annual Oil Market Chronology, at http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/AOMC/Overview.html
[98]
Hirsch, R.L. Bezdek R.& Wendling R, Peaking of World Oil Production
- impacts, mitigation and risk management.2005, p. 28.
[99]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 286.
[100]
ASPO Australia, Submission 132, p. 2.
[101]
CIBC [Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce] World Markets, Not Just a Spike,
occasional paper 53, 13 April 2005. At http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/occ_53.pdf
The demand figure was based on 2.5% trend growth. Capping supply at 86.8
million barrels per day appears to be based on Chris Skrebowski's megaprojects information
(see paragraph 3.97 above) although this is not acknowledged. The suggested
demand is more than the IEA now predicts for 2010 (which is 91.3 million
barrels per day in the reference (business as usual) scenario: World Energy
Outlook 2006, p. 86); while an April 2006 update of the megaprojects
information predicts more short term supply growth than earlier versions. These
points would ameliorate the effect on the price.
[102]
The nonconventional oils consume significant energy in mining and conversion
processes to make them usable. Thus their 'well to wheels' greenhouse impact
per unit of end-use energy will be significantly greater than that of conventional
oil, if production does not include carbon capture and storage.
[103]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 49.
[104]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 37.
[105]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 37ff.
[106]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, pp 73 and 162.
[107]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, pp 167, 169, 172,
227 and 262. Carbon capture and storage is not included on the grounds that it
has not been commercially demonstrated: p. 171.
[108]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, pp 42 and 49.
[109]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 42.
[110]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, pp 42, 193
and 204.
[111]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 186.
[112]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, pp 249-251.
[113]
Hirsch, R.L. Bezdek R.& Wendling R, Peaking of World Oil Production -
impacts, mitigation and risk management, 2005, p. 6.
[114]
Hirsch, R.L. Bezdek R. & Wendling R, Peaking of World Oil Production
- impacts, mitigation and risk management, 2005, pp 6-7 and 65.
[115]
IEA, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 170.
[116]
'In the longer term, concerns also exist about the longevity of oil
supplies.' The point is raised but not further discussed. Australian
Government, Securing Australia's Energy Future, Dept of
the Prime Minister and Cabinet, 2004, p. 119. The possibility of replacement by
oil from gas, coal or shale is mentioned briefly at pages 22, 41 and 124.
[117]
This involved expenditure of about $33 million over three years to deliver a
package of energy efficiency measures across the residential, commercial,
government and industrial sectors. See communiques of the Ministerial Council
on Energy, 27 August 2004, 27 October 2006, at www.mce.gov.au
[118]
For example: initiatives to promote a target of 350 million litres of
biofuels production per year by 2010; various measures in the 2004 Commonwealth
Energy White Paper; recently introduced incentives to promote use of LPG. See
Australian Government, Alternative Transport Fuels and Renewable Energy,
August 2006 Update, at http://www.pmc.gov.au/initiatives/docs/alternative_fuels.pdf
[119]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, pp 193 and 210-11.
[120]
Australian Government, Securing Australia's Energy Future,
Dept of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, 2004, p. 107.
Chapter 4 - Economic and social impacts of possible higher fuel prices and reduced oil
[1]
2005 dollars. IEA, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 61.
[2]
The Hon. A. MacTiernan MLA, Address to sustainable transport coalition’s
oil: living with less conference, 9 August 2004. Retrieved from
http://www.stcwa.org.au/index.php?option=com_docman&task=cat_view&gid=13&Itemid=19
on 23 November 2006.
[3]
D. Bell, Submission 29, p. 18.
[4]
ABC Online High fuel costs boost commuter numbers 2/09/2005 retrieved from www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200509/s1451578.htm on 1/09/2006
[5]
The Council of Social Services of New South Wales, Submission 89,
p.1.
[6]
D. Bell, Submission 29, p. 19.
[7]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 307.
[8]
ABARE, Submission 166, p. 6.
[9]
R.L. Hirsch, R. Bezdek & R. Wendling, Peaking of World Oil
Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management, 2005, p. 27.
[10]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 299.
[11]
R.L. Hirsch, R. Bezdek & R. Wendling, Peaking of World Oil Production:
Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management, 2005, p. 5.
[12]
R.L. Hirsch, R. Bezdek & R. Wendling, Peaking of World Oil
Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management, 2005, p. 28.
[13]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 301.
[14]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 301.
[15]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 298.
[16]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 305.
[17]
ABARE, Submission 166, p. 6.
[18]
Queensland Government, Submission 155, attachments, p. 16.
[19]
Treasury 2006-07 Budget paper no. 1, statement 4 – Australia
in the world economy.
[20] Committee
Hansard, Canberra 12 May 2006, p. 9. (Dr B. Fisher, ABARE).
[21] D. Bell, Submission
29, p. 21.
[22] Committee
Hansard, 29 June 2006, p. 22. (Mr R Campbell, ASPO).
[23] Australian
Petroleum Production and Exploration Association, Submission 176, p. 3.
[24] Australian
Petroleum Production and Exploration Association, Submission 176, p. 4.
[25] Sasol
Chevron, Submission 54, p. 55.
[26] Torquay
Landcare Inc, Submission 80, p. 27.
[27] International
Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 298.
[28] Torquay
Landcare Inc, Submission 80, p. 27.
[29] Institute
for Sustainability and Technology Policy, Murdoch University, Submission 11,
p. 13.
[30] R.L. Hirsch,
R. Bezdek & R. Wendling, Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation,
and Risk Management, 2005, p. 25, quoting U.S. Department of Energy, Energy
Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2004, April
2004.
[31] PBB Industry
Risk Bulletin July 2005 retrieved from
www.ppb.com.au/webdata/resources/files/IRB_Oil_National.pdf#search=%22Industry%20Risk%20Bulletin%20%22
on 01/09/2006
[32] M. Gutteridge,
Queensland’s Oil Problem: Future Considerations for Governments,
Submission 76d, p. 30.
[33] Sustainable
Transport Coalition WA, Submission 45, p. 1.
[34] Committee
Hansard, 11 April 2006, p. 7 and 8 (Mr Beveridge, Office of Industry and
Innovation, University of Western Australia).
[35] Torquay
Landcare Inc, Submission 80, p.20.
[36] Committee
Hansard, 11 April 2006, p. 8 (Mr Beveridge).
[37] Queensland
Government, Submission 155, attachments, p. 18.
[38] Queensland
Farmers Federation, Submission 120, p. 3.
[39] Queensland
Farmers Federation, Submission 120, p. 4.
[40] PBB Industry
Risk Bulletin July 2005, retrieved from
www.ppb.com.au/webdata/resources/files/IRB_Oil_National.pdf#search=%22Industry%20Risk%20Bulletin%20%22
on 01/09/2006
[41] Queensland
Farmers Federation, Submission 120, p. 6.
[42] D. Bell, Submission
29, p. 18.
[43] A. Parker, Submission
12, Appendix A, p. 2.
[44] Committee
Hansard, 11 April 2006, p.9 (Mr Fleay)
[45] Torquary Landcare
Inc, Submission 80, p. 22.
[46] ASPO – Australia,
Submission 136, p. 2.
[47] J. Dodson
and N. Sipe, Submission 165, attachment: Oil Vulnerability in the
Australian City, 2005, p. 23.
[48] Western
Sydney Regional Organisation of Councils, Submission 43, p. 7.
[49] J. Dodson
and N. Sipe, Shocking the Suburbs: Urban Location, Housing Debt and Oil
Vulnerability in the Australian City, 2006, p. 42.
[50] A. Parker, Submission
12, Appendix B, p. 1.
[51] City of Wanneroo,
Submission 19, p. 2.
[52] Council of
Social Services of New South Wales, Submission 89, p. 1.
[53] The
International Association of Public Transport (Australia/New Zealand), Submission
32, p. 5.
[54] Western Sydney
Regional Organisation of Councils, Submission 43, p. 6.
[55] Western
Sydney Regional Organisation of Councils, Submission 43, p. 4.
[56] Committee
Hansard, 9 June 2006, p. 27. (A. S. Gooding, Western Sydney Regional
Organisation of Councils)
[57] Western Sydney
Regional Organisation of Councils, Submission 43, p. 10.
[58] The
International Association of Public Transport (Australia/New Zealand), Submission
32, p. 23.
[59] Government
of Western Australia, Submission 172, p. 4.
[60] Government
of Western Australia, Submission 172, attachment, pp 2 and 3.
[61] The Council
of Social Services of New South Wales, Submission 89, p. 3.
[62] Australian
Medical Association, Submission 88, p. 1.
[63] International
Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 186.
[64] International
Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 3.
[65] International
Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 40.
[66] Australian
Government, Securing Australia’s Energy Future 2004, p. 115.
[67] Australian
Government, Securing Australia’s Energy Future 2004, p. 119.
[68] Treasury,
2006-07 Budget paper No. 1, statement 3 - The outlook for the international
economy.
[69] Treasury,
2006-07 Budget paper No. 1, statement 4 – Australia in the world economy.
[70] Treasury,
2006-07 Budget paper No. 1, statement 4 – Australia in the world economy.
[71] ASPO Australia,
Submission 136, p. 2.
[72] ASPO Australia,
Submission 135, p. 5.
[73] Australian
Government, Securing Australia's Energy Future, 2004, p. 122.
[74] Australian
Government, Securing Australia's Energy Future, 2004, p. 124.
[75] Australian
Government, Securing Australia's Energy Future, 2004, p. 122.
[76] A. Parker, Submission
12, Appendix A, p. 1.
[77] Australian
Government, Securing Australia’s Energy Future, July 2006, Update, p. 3.
[78] D. Bennett, Submission
40, p. 1.
[79] ASPO Australia,
Submission 193, p. 1 and p. 4.
[80] International
Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 3.
[81] R.L. Hirsch,
R. Bezdek & R. Wendling, Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts,
Mitigation, and Risk Management, 2005 p. 66.
[82] ASPO Australia,
Submission 135, p. 10.
[83] Committee
Hansard, 11 April 2006, p. 31. (Dr Worth, Sustainable Transport Coalition)
[84] Australian
Government, Securing Australia’s Energy Future 2004, p.
116.
[85] Australian
Government, Securing Australia’s Energy Future 2004, p.
121.
[86] Treasurer's
press release, G-20 Meeting, Melbourne, 18-19 November 2006, retrieved from
http://www.treasurer.gov.au/tsr/content/pressreleases/2006/125.asp?pf=1 on 20 November 2006.
Chapter 5 - Supply side responses - overview and exploration
[1]
CSIRO, Submission 128 for example discusses this. Smaller
countries like Australia, who are at the end of long supply lines, may be more
vulnerable to supply disruptions. It is important to note that the energy white
paper disagrees that this is necessary, considering security of supply to be
adequate. The Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP) agrees with this
assessment – see submission.
[2]
Australian oil production is classified as light sweet crude and is of
high value on the world market. Most production is exported. Further,
Australian refineries require heavier crudes to produce the full range of
petroleum products required in the Australian market.
[3]
Committee Hansard, 11 August 2006, p. 2.
[4]
Committee Hansard, 18 August 2006, p. 51.
[5]
ABARE, Submission 166, p. 4.
[6]
CSIRO, Submission 128, p. 11.
[7]
Akehurt, J. 2002, World Oil Markets and the Challenges for Australia,
Woodside Australia Energy, ABARE Outlook conference, 2002.
[8]
RISE, Submission 104, p. 5.
[9]
AATSE, Submission 154, p. 4.
[10]
Committee Hansard, 12 May 2006, p. 8.
[11]
Committee Hansard, 11 August 2006, p. 2.
[12]
APPEA, Submission 176, p. 4.
[13]
Committee Hansard, 11 August 2006, p. 4.
[14] Department
of Industry, Tourism and Resources, Response to Questions taken on notice,
12 September 2006, p. 4.
[15]
APPEA, Submission 176, p. 6.
[16]
Committee Hansard, 11 August 2006, p. 3.
[17]
APPEA, Submission 176, p. 6.
[18]
Committee Hansard, 11 August 2006, p. 12.
[19]
Committee Hansard, 12 May 2006, p. 9.
[20]
Committee Hansard, 11 August 2006, p. 9.
[21]
Transcript of the Prime Minister's statement to Parliament on energy
initiatives,
Parliament House, Canberra, 14 August 2006 and Department of Prime Minister and
Cabinet website, at http://www.dpmc.gov.au/initiatives/docs/exploration.rtf.
[22]
Transcript of the Prime Minister's statement to Parliament on energy
initiatives,
Parliament House, Canberra, 14 August 2006 and Department of Prime Minister and
Cabinet website, at http://www.dpmc.gov.au/initiatives/docs/exploration.rtf.
Chapter 6 - Supply side responses - Alternative fuels from gas, coal and shale
[1]
For example, the introduction of fuel standards, and increases in the market
share of LPG.
[2]
That is, refined from conventionally produced oil.
[3]
Australian Government, Securing Australia's Energy
Future, Dept of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, 2004, p. 134 (2002
estimate).
[4]
BTRE, Greenhouse Gas Emissions to 2020: Projected trends for
Australian Transport, Information sheet 21.
[5]
Securing Australia's Energy Future, Prime
Minister's foreword.
[6]
Cummins, Submission 84.
[7]
Asia-Pacific Natural Gas Vehicles Association, Submission 75.
[8]
Envestra Pty Ltd, Submission 105, attached report by Mr O.
Clark AM, p. 10.
[9]
Motive Energy, Submission 64, p. 13.
[10]
Reuters news article, Natural gas cars a hit in Argentina, 9 April 2003.
[11]
Geoscience Australia, Submission 128, Table 6, p. 28.
[12]
Geoscience Australia, Submission 128, p. 32.
[13]
Chemlink Consultants, NSW, http://www.chemlink.com.au/nswchem.htm,
as accessed 17 November 2006.
[14]
Keith Orchison, Abundance, ease of access make methane attractive,
article in The Australian newspaper, 9 September 2006.
[15]
The coal seam gas industry has been described as 'burgeoning', and as the
main driver of continuing investment in pipeline construction – Australian
Pipeline Industry Association, Media release, 16 October 2006.
[16]
See for example Mr Brian Fleay, Submission 74B, p. 4.
[17]
Committee Hansard, 30 June 2006, p. 45.
[18]
Envestra Pty Ltd, Submission 105, attached report by Mr O. Clark
AM, p. 2.
[19]
Committee Hansard, 9 June 2006, p. 106.
[20]
Asia-Pacific Natural Gas Vehicles Association, Submission 75,
p. 2.
[21]
Committee Hansard, 29 June 2006, p. 3.
[22]
Committee Hansard, 11 August 2006.
[23]
The US Federal Government offers a tax credit of $US4,000 to purchasers of
such vehicles - see www.honda.com for
specifications and details.
[24]
Boral Transport Ltd, Submission 106, p. 2.
[25]
Murray Goulburn Co-operative, Submission 53, p. 7.
[26]
Murray Goulburn Co-operative, Submission 53, p. 10.
[27]
Murray Goulburn Co-operative, Submission 53, p. 9.
[28]
Murray Goulburn Co-operative, Submission 53, p. 9.
[29]
Murray Goulburn Co-operative, Submission 53, p. 9.
[30]
Boral Transport Ltd, Submission 106, p. 2.
[31]
Committee Hansard, 9 June 2006, p. 88.
[32]
Committee Hansard, 9 June 2006, p. 91.
[33]
Committee Hansard, 9 June 2006, p. 88.
[34]
See http://www.myphill.com/index.htm
[35]
Natural Gas Vehicles Group, Submission 119, p. 3.
[36]
Committee Hansard, 9 June 2006, p. 102.
[37]
Envestra Pty Ltd, Submission 105, p. 16.
[38]
Committee Hansard, 9 June 2006, p. 105.
[39]
Advanced Fuels Technology Pty Ltd, Submission 50, pp 6-7.
[40]
Advanced Fuels Technology Pty Ltd, Submission 50.
[41]
For a comprehensive analysis of this subject, see Bureau of Transport and
Communications Economics, Alternative Fuels in Australian Transport,
Information Paper No. 39, 1994, Chapter 7.
[42]
Bureau of Transport and Communications Economics, Alternative Fuels in
Australian Transport, Information Paper No. 39, 1994, Chapter 7.
[43]
CSIRO, Life-cycle Emissions Analysis of fuels for light vehicles,
Report to the Australian Greenhouse Office, May 2004.
[44]
CSIRO, Life-cycle Emissions Analysis of Alternative Fuels for heavy vehicles,
Report to the Australian Greenhouse Office, March 2000, p. xvii.
[45]
Department of Environment and Heritage (DEH), Submission 171,
p. 3.
[46]
Bureau of Transport and Communications Economics, Alternative Fuels in
Australian Transport, Information Paper No. 39, 1994, Chapter 7, p. 114.
[47]
From http://www.chemlink.com.au/gas.htm
[48]
Michael Gutteridge and others, Queensland's oil problem: Future
considerations for Governments, in M. Gutteridge, Submission 76,
p. 23.
[49]
CSIRO, Submission 128, p. 6.
[50]
Australian Liquefied Petroleum Gas Association, Media Release, 13 October 2005, p. 2.
[51]
Department of Industry, Tourism and Resources, Response to questions taken
on notice, 4 September 2006.
[52]
Committee Hansard, 18 August 2006, pp 33-4.
[53]
Department of Industry, Tourism and Resources, Response to questions taken
on notice, 4 September 2006.
[54]
Committee Hansard, 11 August 2006, p. 28.
[55]
ALPGA, Submission 91, p. 5.
[56]
Committee Hansard, 11 August 2006, p. 28 (Mr Scoular, Ford).
[57]
Michael Gutteridge and others, Queensland's oil problem: Future
considerations for Governments, in M. Gutteridge, Submission 76,
p. 23.
[58]
CSIRO, Submission 128, p. 18.
[59]
Committee Hansard, 9 June 2006, p. 62.
[60]
Department of Industry, Tourism and Resources, Energy in Australia 2005.
[61]
Department of Industry, Tourism and Resources, Response to questions taken
on notice, 12 September 2006, p. 3.
[62]
See for example Committee Hansard, 9 June 2006, p. 62.
[63]
CSIRO, Life-cycle Emissions Analysis of fuels for light vehicles,
Report to the Australian Greenhouse Office, May 2004, p. 67.
[64]
CSIRO, Life-cycle Emissions Analysis of fuels for light vehicles,
Report to the Australian Greenhouse Office, May 2004.
[65]
Bureau of Transport and Communications Economics, Alternative Fuels in
Australian Transport, Information Paper No. 39, 1994.
[66]
Committee Hansard, 9 June 2006, p. 103.
[67]
Sasol Chevron, Submission 54, p. 4.
[68]
See for example Chemlink Australasia, Gas to Liquids, at http://www.chemlink.com.au/gtl.htm
as accessed 16 November 2006.
[69]
Catalyzing GTL, Chemical and Engineering News, Vol 81, No. 29, 21 July 2003.
[70]
Sasol Chevron, Submission 54, p. 6.
[71]
The Sasol Chevron project has been withdrawn. Source: Chemlink
Australasia, at http://www.chemlink.com.au/index-info.htm, accessed 16 November 2006.
[72]
Sasol Chevron, Submission 54, p.14.
[73]
Sasol Chevron, Submission 54, p. 11.
[74]
Australian Commodities, June 2006, p. 306.
[75]
Sasol Chevron, Submission 54, p. 13.
[76]
Committee Hansard, 18 August 2006, p. 48.
[77]
Chemlink Australasia, Gas to Liquids, at http://www.chemlink.com.au/gtl.htm
, accessed 16 November 2006.
[78]
Sasol Chevron, Submission 54, p. 13.
[79]
CSIRO, Submission 128, p. 17.
[80]
Sasol Chevron, Submission 54, pp 7-8 and p. 12.
[81]
Sasol Chevron, Submission 54, p. 9.
[82]
Sasol Chevron, Submission 54, Appendix B, p. 9.
[83]
Mizuho Information and Research Institute, Well-to-wheels analysis of
Greenhouse Gas emissions of automotive fuels in the Japanese context, from www.mizuho-ir.co.jp/english/knowledge/wtwghg041130.html,
accessed 14 November 2006.
[84]
CSIRO, response to questions taken on notice, 27 June 2006. (Appendix 3)
[85]
CSIRO, Response to questions taken on notice, 27 June 2006. (Appendix 3)
[86]
Although the Sasol plant in South Africa is the only industrial size plant
in the world in operation.
[87]
For example, the Monash Energy Consortium and the Centre for Low Emission
Technology, both of which made submissions and gave evidence.
[88]
Monash Energy, Submission 58, p. 14.
[89]
Committee Hansard, 18 August 2006, p. 53.
[90]
Monash Energy, Submission 58, p. 7.
[91]
Australian Commodities, June 2006, p. 306.
[92]
Australian Commodities, June 2006, p. 306.
[93]
Monash Energy, Submission 58, covering letter and p.
10.
[94]
Committee Hansard, 18 August 2006, p. 46.
[95]
Monash Energy acknowledges this – see p. 9.
[96]
CSIRO, Response to questions on notice, 27 June 2006, p. 1.
[97]
Monash Energy, Submission 58, p. 9.
[98]
Monash Energy, Submission 58, p. 12.
[99]
Committee Hansard (private briefing – Monash Energy), 29 June 2006, p. 2. (Mr Cochrane, CEO)
[100]
Committee Hansard (private briefing – Monash Energy), 29 June 2006, p. 2. (Mr Cochrane, CEO)
[101]
Sleipner natural-gas platform - CO2 separated from natural gas is
re-injected.
[102]
Committee Hansard (private briefing – Monash Energy), 29 June 2006, p. 7. (Mr Cochrane, CEO)
[103]
Committee Hansard, 30 June 2006, p. 45.
[104]
Committee Hansard, 11 August 2006, p. 17.
[105]
IEA, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 170.
[106]
Mr Brian Fleay, Submission 74, Appendix 2.
[107]
Queensland Government, Submission 155, supporting material, p.
iii.
[108]
Queensland Government, Submission 155, supporting material, p.
iii.
[109]
Mr Brian Fleay, Submission 74, Appendix 2.
[110]
Mr Brian Fleay, Submission 74, Appendix 2.
[111]
Article entitled Cavalry Arrives to Help Stuart Project, www.rigzone.com/news/article
[112]
Committee Hansard, 12 May 2006, pp 17 & 18.
[113]
Mr Lex Creemers, Submission 125, pp 2 & 3.
Chapter 7 - Supply side responses - Alternative fuels - Biofuels
[1] Australian
Government Biofuels Taskforce, Report of the Biofuels Taskforce
to the Prime Minister, August 2005.
[2] Department
of Industry, Tourism and Resources, Government Biofuels Initiatives, at http://www.industry.gov.au/content/itrinternet/cmscontent.cfm?objectID=A9D9A207-0351-51FB-F20C287758203878,
accessed 24 November 2006.
[3] CSR Ltd, Submission
148.
[4] Queensland
Government, Submission 155, p. 7.
[5] Australian
Government Biofuels Taskforce, Report of the Biofuels Taskforce
to the Prime Minister, August 2005, pp 1 and 3.
[6] Australian
Canegrowers' Council, Submission 36, p. 3.
[7] Australian Canegrowers'
Council, Submission 36, p. 8.
[8] Committee
Hansard, 12 April 2006, p. 95. (Mr DeLandgrafft)
[9] Australian
Canegrowers' Council, Submission 36, p. 2. Flexi fuel vehicles are
designed to operate on a range of different ethanol blends, ranging from 0 to
85 per cent. They are available in Brazil, the United States, Sweden and the United
Kingdom.
[10] Mr Brian
Fleay, Submission 74, Appendix 5.
[11] Australian
Cane Growers Council, Submission 36, p. 5.
[12] CSR Ltd, Submission
148, p. 6.
[13] Australian
Government Biofuels Taskforce, Report of the Biofuels Taskforce
to the Prime Minister, August 2005, pp 1 and 38.
[14] Article
published in Sydney Morning Herald, Wheat imports loom as drought bites,
15 November 2006, p. 3.
[15] Emergent
Futures, Submission 117, p. 21.
[16] Dr Hongwei Wu
and Dr Mike Ewing, Submission 179, p. 3.
[17] ACGC, Submission
36, p. 8.
[18] Microbiogen,
Submission 92, p. 4.
[19] Committee
Hansard, 30 June 2006, pp 88-9.
[20] Australian
Government Biofuels Taskforce, Report of the Biofuels Taskforce
to the Prime Minister, August 2005, pp 1 and 15.
[21] Two possible
routes are available – fermentation or gasification.
[22] Emergent
Futures, Submission 117, p. 21.
[23] Dr Hongwei Wu
and Dr Mike Ewing, Submission 179, p. 3.
[24] Microbiogen,
Submission 92, p. 5.
[25] Australian
Government Biofuels Taskforce, Report of the Biofuels Taskforce
to the Prime Minister, August 2005, pp 1 and 44.
[26] http://www.iogen.ca/key-mesages/overview/m4-fuels-vehicles.html,
accessed 9 November 2006.
[27] Alan Cummine,
Ethanol history being ignored at our cost, Australian Forest Grower,
Autumn 2003.
[28] Australian
Government Biofuels Taskforce, Report of the Biofuels Taskforce
to the Prime Minister, August 2005, pp 1 and 69.
[29] Australian
Government Biofuels Taskforce, Report of the Biofuels Taskforce
to the Prime Minister, August 2005, pp 1 and 69.
[30] http://www.iogen.ca/key-mesages/overview/m4-fuels-vehicles.html,
accessed 9 November 2006.
[31] ACGC, Submission
36, pp 4-5.
[32] ACGC, Submission
36, pp 6-9.
[33] Australian
Government Biofuels Taskforce, Report of the Biofuels Taskforce to the Prime
Minister, August 2005, conclusion 28, p. 18.
[34] Dr Hongwei Wu
and Dr Mike Ewing, Submission 179, p. 3.
[35] Livestock
Feedgrain Users Group, Submission 55, p. 3.
[36] Livestock
Feedgrain Users Group, Submission 55, p. 4.
[37] See
conclusions 29 and 30, pp 18 and 19.
[38] Australian
Government Biofuels Taskforce, Report of the Biofuels Taskforce
to the Prime Minister, August 2005, p. 13.
[39] Ethanol
produced by distillation still contains a small percentage of water which
cannot be removed in the distillation process. This must be removed before
blending. Ethanol with the water removed is referred to as anhydrous ethanol.
[40] Committee
Hansard, 29 June 2006, p. 37.
[41] Shell Australia,
Submission 181, p. 14.
[42]
Australian Government Biofuels Taskforce, Report of the Biofuels
Taskforce to the Prime Minister, August 2005, p1.
[43] Gardner-Smith
Holdings, Submission 185, p. 4.
[44] http://www.peugeot.com.au/PEUGEOT/AU/me.get?site.home&FFFF1765
[45]
Australian Government Biofuels Taskforce, Report of the Biofuels
Taskforce to the Prime Minister, August 2005, p. 1.
[46]
Gardner-Smith Holdings, Submission 185, p. 11.
[47]
Queensland Farmers Federation, Submission 120, p. 18.
[48]
See pp 13-14 of report.
[49]
Committee Hansard, 9 June 2006, pp 39-40.
[50]
Committee Hansard, 9 June 2006, p. 41.
[51]
Committee Hansard, 9 June 2006, p. 41.
[52]
Quoted from para 3.78 of the Report of the Senate Economics Legislation Committee
into the Fuel Tax Bill and a related bill, 14 June 2006.
[53]
Natural Fuels Australia, Submission 95, p. 1.
[54]
The committee acknowledges the possibility of producing biodiesel through
gasification technology, but notes the assessment of the U.S. Energy
Information Administration that biomass-to-liquids plants have high capital and
operating costs, and their feedstock handling costs are especially high.
Further, BTL gasifiers are significantly more expensive than those used in GTL
and CTL. Source: Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook
2006, p. 45.
[55]
See for example Biodiesel Association of Australia, Submission 68,
p. 4.
[56]
Biodiesel Association of Australia, Submission 68, p. 4.
[57]
Natural Fuels Australia, Submission 95, p. 2.
[58]
Gardner-Smith Holdings, Submission 185, p. 4.
[59]
Gardner-Smith Holdings, Submission 185, p. 4.
[60]
Australian Government Biofuels Taskforce, Report of the Biofuels
Taskforce to the Prime Minister, August 2005, p. 86.
[61]
Australian Government Biofuels Taskforce, Report of the Biofuels
Taskforce to the Prime Minister, August 2005, p. 89.
Chapter 8 - Demand side responses
[1]
For a concise discussion of these
matters see also Productivity Commission, The Private Cost Effectiveness of
Improving Energy Efficiency, 2005, pp 239-272.
[2]
Australian Government, Securing Australia's Energy
Future, Dept of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, 2004, p. 137. ABARE, Submission
166, p. 9.
[3]
BTRE information sheet 18, Fuel consumption by new passenger vehicles
in Australia, 2001.
[4]
This mirrors experience in the USA, where there is a mandatory corporate
average fuel economy (CAFE) standard for passenger cars, and a lower standard
for 'light trucks' (sports utility vehicles). As the market penetration of
light trucks for passenger use has grown, the fuel efficiency of the US light
vehicle fleet as a whole has worsened steadily since 1988, and now stands at
about 24 miles per gallon (9.8 litres per 100 km). Pew Centre on Global Climate
Change, Comparison of Passenger Vehicle Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas
Emission Standards Around the World, 2004, p. 7.
[5]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 226.
[6]
BTRE information sheet 18, Fuel consumption by new passenger vehicles
in Australia, 2001.
[7]
BTRE information sheet 18, Fuel consumption by new passenger vehicles
in Australia, 2001. Australian Automobile Association, Submission
151, p. 10.
[8]
Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries
[9]
Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries, Voluntary Code of Practice
- Reducing the Fuel Consumption of New Light Vehicles, 15 April 2003.
[10]
Standards are mandatory in the United States, California, China and Japan,
and voluntary in the European Union, Canada and Australia. The US Corporate
Average Fuel Economy standards, though mandatory, are not particularly
demanding: 27.5 miles per gallon (8.5 litres per 100km) for passenger cars, and
22.2 miles per gallon (10.6 litres per 100km) from 2007 for light trucks. Pew
Centre on Global Climate Change, Comparison of Passenger Vehicle Fuel
Economy and Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards Around the World, 2004, p. 6.
For more discussion and comparisons, see International Energy Agency, World
Energy Outlook 2006, p. 226ff, and Productivity
Commission, The Private Cost Effectiveness of Improving Energy Efficiency,
2005, p. 246.
[11]
There is some evidence that the higher petrol prices of the last two years
have turned consumers back towards smaller cars: Productivity
Commission, The Private Cost Effectiveness of Improving Energy Efficiency,
2005, p. 249. Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries, Small cars
drive half yearly motor vehicle sales, media release 5 July 2006.
[12]
Committee Hansard, 11 August 2006, p. 55. (Mr G. McGlynn,
Australian Greenhouse Office)
[13]
Australian Automobile Association, Submission 151, p. 10. Mr
L. Mackintosh (AAA), Committee Hansard, 18 August 2006, p. 65.
[14]
Committee Hansard, 11 August 2006, p. 55. (Mr G. McGlynn,
Australian Greenhouse Office)
[15]
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 228.
Victoria Transport Policy Institute, Rebound effects - implications for
transport planning, at http://www.vtpi.org/tdm/tdm64.htm
The Productivity Commission notes research suggesting
that a 10 per cent increase in fuel efficiency leads to a 2 per cent increase
in distance travelled: The Private Cost Effectiveness of Improving Energy
Efficiency, 2005, p. 248.
[16]
Productivity Commission, The Private
Cost Effectiveness of Improving Energy Efficiency, 2005, p. 248.
[17]
FCAI, Voluntary Code of Practice –
Reducing the Fuel Consumption of New Light Vehicles, 2003, clause 2.
[18]
This has been done in Queensland and Western Australia. Queensland
Government, Submission 155, p. 5. Mr G. Head (WA Department for Planning
and Infrastructure), Committee Hansard, 11 April 2006, pp 3-4.
[19]
SASOL Chevron, Submission 54, Appendix C.
[20]
Imported new passengers cars attract a tariff of 10 per cent; four wheel
drives, 5 per cent. This anomaly will end in 2010 when the tariff on cars falls
to 5 per cent.
[21]
Mr P. Robertson (DOTARS), Committee Hansard, 18 August 2006, p. 9. Hon. J. Lloyd, Reva vehicle must comply with safety standards first, media
release 11 October 2006.
[22]
Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics, Urban congestion - the
implications for greenhouse gas emissions, information sheet 16, 2000.
[23]
Ministerial Council on Energy, communiqué 27 October 2006.
[24]
Department of Environment and Heritage, Submission 171, p. 7.
Australian Transport Council, communiqué 2 June 2006.
[25]
Council of Australian Governments, communiqué 10 February 2006.
[26]
The external cost of an individual's ill health is publicly funded health
care costs. A proportion of accident costs are internalised, and a proportion
are funded by the public health system.
[27]
BTRE, Urban Congestion - the Implications for Greenhouse Gas Emissions,
information sheet 16, 2000. Health Impacts of Transport Emissions in
Australia: Economic Costs, working paper 63, 2005, pp 14-15.
[28]
To gain the economic benefit it is
important that the charge is actually tailored to target only congested times
and places. A flat rate city wide ‘road use charge’ is not a congestion charge.
For further discussion see Productivity Commission, The Private Cost
Effectiveness of Improving Energy Efficiency, 2005, p. 251ff.
[29]
Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics, Greenhouse Policy Options
for Transport, report 105, 2002, p. xv. Bureau of Transport and
Communications Economics [predecessor of the BTRE], Traffic Congestion and
Road User Charges in Australian Capital Cities, report 92, 1996.
[30]
For example, in response to a recent congestion charging proposal by the
Royal Automobile Club of Queensland, the Queensland Transport and Main Roads
Minister, Mr Lucas said, 'The Beattie government is not considering introducing
congestion charging on Brisbane roads - it's a toll road by stealth.' www.theage.com.au 3 September 2006.
[31]
UK Commission for Integrated Transport, CfIT's world review of road
pricing phase 1 - lessons for the UK, n.d. at http://www.cfit.gov.uk/docs/2006/wrrp1/index.htm
[32]
Committee Hansard 18 August 2006, p.78 (Mr J. Metcalfe). Willett K,
(RACQ), The Truth about Brisbane's Road: Stuck in Traffic and
Stuck for Solutions, 17 August 2006.
[33]
Productivity Commission, The Private Cost-Effectiveness of Improving
Energy Efficiency, 2005, p. xlii, p. 257, recommendation 11.1. Government
response, February 2006.
[34]
See Mayor of London's transport strategy, available at http://www.london.gov.uk/mayor/strategies/transport/index.jsp
[35]
The public transport share is usually somewhat higher in peak hours, and
for travel to Central Business Districts.
[36]
Australasian Railway Association, personal communication, August 2006,
based on research in progress.
[37]
Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics, Greenhouse Policy Options
for Transport, report 105, 2002, p. xii.
[38]
For example, Hon. J. Watkins (NSW Minister for Transport), Public bus
patronage grows by 60,000 passengers a week, media release 23 May 2006. This is a year on year increase of about 1.7 per cent.
[39]
For example, there are official goals to increase the public transport mode
share from 7% to 10.5% in South East Queensland by 2011 (Transport 2007); from
9% to 20% of motorised trips (thus about 15% of all trips) in Melbourne by 2020
(Melbourne 2030); to reduce car-as-driver trips in Perth by one third by
2029 (Perth Metropolitan Transport Strategy 1995-2029); and to increase
the proportion of peak hour trips by public transport to 25% in Sydney (A
New Direction for NSW - State Plan, 2006).
[40]
International Association of Public Transport, Submission 32, p. 31.
Prof. P. Newman, Committee Hansard, 12 April 2006, p. 43. Municipal Association of Victoria, Submission 124, p. 6.
[41]
Bus Industry Confederation, Submission 129, p. 16. International
Association of Public Transport, Submission 32, pp 24-5.
[42]
Department of Transport and Regional Services, Auslink White Paper,
2004, p. 9.
[43]
Department of Environment and Heritage/ Australian Greenhouse Office, Evaluation
of Australian Travelsmart Projects, 2005, p. 5. Queensland Government, Submission
155, p. 4. See also WA Department for Planning and Infrastructure,
attachment.
[44]
Mr P. Strang (Bicycle Federation of Australia), Committee
Hansard, 12 May 2006, p. 89. Mr E. Fishman (Institute for Sensible
Transport), Committee Hansard, 12 May 2006, p. 93.
[45]
Australian Bicycle Council, Australian Cycling - Bicycle Ownership, Use
and Demographics, 2004, pp 5-7.
[46]
Austroads, The Australian National Cycling Strategy 2005-2010,
2005, p. 3.
[47]
Austroads, The Australian National Cycling Strategy 2005-2010,
2005, p. 4 and pp 14-15.
[48]
ASPO Australia Active Transport Working Group, Submission 136, p. 8.
[49]
Walking WA Committee, Submission 109, p. 4.
[50]
Monash Energy Holdings, Submission 58, p. 17. Bureau of Transport
and Regional Economics, Greenhouse Policy Options for Transport, report
105, p. 20. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006,
p. 224.
[51]
For example, Australian Automobile Association: 'Trying to get motorists
out of their cars as an option for reducing transport fuel demand is
unrealistic'. Submission 151, p. 7.
[52]
Prof. P. Newman, Committee Hansard, 12 April 2006, pp 50-51.
[53]
Prof. P. Newman, Submission 11, p. 5.
[54]
Mrs S. Fingland (Western Sydney Regional Organisation of Councils), Committee
Hansard, 9 June 2006, p. 22.
[55]
Mr I. Robins (Wyndham City Council), Committee Hansard, 29 June 2006, p. 65.
[56]
Mr C. Tampion (Public Transport Users Association), Committee Hansard, 29 June 2006, p. 82.
[57]
Mr A. Honan (Railway Technical Society of Australia), Committee Hansard,
30 June 2006, p. 17.
[58]
Municipal Association of Victoria, Submission 124, p. 4.
[59]
For related suggestions see Alan Parker Design, Submission 12, Appendix
B. Residential Environments Study Team, Submission 102, p. 3.
[60]
For an overview of transit oriented development see for example http://www.patrec.org/conferences/TODJuly2005/TODJuly2005.html
which is the papers of a 2005 conference by the Western Australia Planning and
Transport Research Centre (PATREC).
[61]
For example, Sydney 2005 Metropolitan Strategy calls for 60-70 per cent of
new housing to be in established areas. NSW Department of Planning, City of Cities
- a plan for Sydney's future - metropolitan strategy, 2005,
p. 133.
[62]
For a leading Australian 'urban consolidation sceptic' see Patrick Troy, The
Perils of Urban Consolidation, 1996. For an example of residents opposition
see Save Our Suburbs at http://www.sos.org.au/new_home.html
See discussion in House of Representatives Standing Committee on Environment
and Heritage, Sustainable Cities, 2005, p. 43.
[63]
Municipal Association of Victoria, Submission 124, p. 4.
[64]
Municipal Association of Victoria, Submission 124, p. 4.
[65]
Department for Planning and Infrastructure, Submission 172,
attachment.
[66]
International Association of Public Transport, Submission 32, p. 31.
[67]
For example, Bus Industry Confederation, Submission 129, p. 14.
[68]
For example, if car and public transport trips are now in the ratio 9 to
1, and 10 per cent of car trips become public transport trips, this would
almost double public transport use.
[69]
Rail 0.0085, road 0.0265 litres per net tonne kilometre: Bureau of
Transport Economics, Competitive Neutrality Between Road and Rail,
working paper 40, 1999, p. 59. Figures are for non-bulk freight on an ‘average’
interstate corridor, and allow for typical load factors. Fuel efficiency of
both road and rail has probably increased since then.
[70]
A larger proportion of freight would be on routes where rail service could
theoretically be provided, but would not be viable because of the overwhelming
natural advantages of road service on those routes.
[71]
Department of Transport and Regional Services, Auslink White Paper,
2004, p. 3. Australasian Railway Association, Australian Rail Industry
Report 2003, p. 9. Mr S. St Clair (Australian Trucking Association), Committee
Hansard 12 May 2006, p. 85. Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics, Freight
between Australian Cities, 1972 to 2001, information sheet 22. BTRE, Freight
Measurement and Modelling in Australia, report 112, 2006, p. xxiii.
[72]
BTRE, Freight Measurement and Modelling in Australia, report 112,
2006, p. xxiii.
[73]
113km of the Hume Highway remains unduplicated: Department of Transport
and Regional Services, Sydney-Melbourne Corridor Strategy [2006], p. 4.
[74]
Dr P. Laird, Committee Hansard, 30 June 2006, p. 81. In fact the current Sydney-Melbourne rail alignment is worse than as built in the
1870s. In the 1910s many deviations were made to obtain easier grades at the
cost of sharper curves and longer overall distance. For today's faster, more
powerful trains it would be better if the deviations had not been made.
[75]
Department of Transport and Regional Services, Auslink White Paper,
June 2004, p. 62.
[76]
This is a combination of grants under Auslink funding programs; direct
grants to the Australian Rail Track Corporation, which controls the main
interstate routes; and the ARTC’s own investment (the ARTC is Commonwealth
owned).
[77]
Australian Government, Auslink White Paper, 2004.
[78]
Mr S. St Clair (Australian Trucking Association), Proof Committee
Hansard, 12 May 2006, p. 85. ATA, Submission 131, p. 23.
[79]
The 2004 Auslink White Paper in a few words flags the possible issue of
‘depletion of fossil fuel supplies before alternative energy sources are
developed’ (pp 21 and 115), but makes no further comment.
[80]
Productivity Commission, Road and Rail Infrastructure Pricing,
discussion draft September 2006. It is also
argued that rail access charges may not recover long term asset replacement
costs: BTRE, Land Transport Infrastructure Pricing: an Introduction,
working paper 57, 2004, p. x.
[81]
Treasury, Tax Expenditures Statement 2005, p. 125.
[82]
Based on about 463,000 affected vehicles in 1999-2000, the last year for
which figures are available. The Institute of Chartered Accountants in Australia,
Fringe Benefits Tax - Decision Time, 2006, p. 19.
[83]
The Institute of Chartered Accountants in Australia, Fringe Benefits
Tax - Decision Time, 2006, p. 19.
[84]
House of Representatives Standing Committee on Environment and Heritage, Sustainable
Cities, 2005, paragraph 5.75.
[85]
See http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/whatsnew/items/transit-e.html
[86]
Mr M. Jacobs (Department of the Treasury), Committee Hansard, 18 August 2006, p. 30.
[87]
COAG communiqué, 10 February 2006.
[88]
Australian Taxation Office, Reportable Fringe Benefits - Facts for
Employees, p. 3.
[89]
A tax rebate for public transport fares might also be regressive as it
would not be available to those who pay no tax.