Chapter 8 - Supply and demand
Predicting supply and demand in the teaching profession is
quite a complex process. Accurate predictions are important to the status of
the teaching profession. Incorrect predictions resulting in an undersupply of
teachers can jeopardise the quality of education because governments may be
tempted to meet the shortfall by increasing class sizes or employing
unqualified teachers. The traditional remedy of employing overseas trained
teachers is no longer an option since supplying countries are themselves facing
a shortage. An oversupply is costly, both for the individual teachers unable to
obtain work in the profession and for the broader community which has financed
their education. In each of these situations, the status of teachers is
adversely affected. It is therefore imperative that accurate methodology is
employed to predict future demand.
The Preston Report
In January 1997 the Australian Council of Deans of Education
released a report by Barbara Preston entitled Teacher supply and demand to
2003 - projections, implications and issues. The aim was to stimulate
discussion on the critical questions associated with the supply of and demand
for teachers, and in this it has been successful. Although some people dispute
the extent of Preston’s predicted shortfall in teaching graduates, most
authorities agree there will be a shortage of qualified teachers within the
next decade.
Preston found existing shortfalls in some States and subject
areas. She predicted that demand would increasingly outstrip supply in all
States except Tasmania. On the extent of the projected shortfall Preston said:
Where a very serious shortfall is expected (Queensland primary
and South Australian secondary in the short term, and Victorian secondary in
the longer term), the number of graduates projected by the universities is less
than half the minimum number necessary to meet the expected demand.[1]
Preston considers the surplus of education graduates in the
first half of this decade can be traced to two effects of the economic
recession in the early 1990’s. Firstly, alternative job opportunities were
limited, resulting in lower resignation rates, and secondly there was a sharp
reduction in teaching staffing levels due to budgetary constraints. These
combined to produce a pool of unemployed teachers which affected recruitment
over the next several years. She claims teacher education intakes were adjusted
to this artificial level and that this will result in an undersupply which,
without intervention, will increase over coming years. [2]
Other factors contributing to the expected undersupply of
teachers addressed by Preston include:
- increased retirement rates as a larger percentage of teachers
move into retirement age
- high drop out rates for beginning teachers
- a predicted increase in growth of student enrolments
-
availability of alternative employment opportunities for teaching
graduates
- limited overseas recruitment because of teacher shortages in
traditional supplier countries.
Objections to Preston’s projections
A different view is presented in DEETYA’s report Secondary
School Teacher Supply and Demand. Although DEETYA agrees there will be
supply shortages they dispute the level and extent of teacher undersupply.
The disparity between the conclusions of the Preston report and
DEETYA’s view of the likelihood of secondary teacher shortages appears to
relate mainly to two influences: higher projected separation rates from
teaching assumed in the Preston report; and DEETYA’s view that the present pool
of surplus teachers, resulting from years of low teacher demand, will make a
substantial contribution to future teacher supply.[3]
State governments presented a range of views on the Preston
projections. The Northern Territory and Victorian governments, for example,
disputed the Preston findings.
I do not accept at this stage that the Preston projections are
accurate... We think there are problems with a number of elements of the
Preston projections, particularly in terms of the pool of trained teachers who
are not operating in the area at this stage.[4]
Victoria agrees that issues of supply and demand need to be
addressed. However, the predictions of the Australian Council of Deans of
Education (ACDE) are not accepted for Victoria.[5]
Other governments generally concurred with Preston's
conclusions, if not with the detail of her projections.
Unfortunately the [Preston] report does not separate the
government and non-government components, and there are some uniquely South
Australian DECS factors which were not incorporated into the report. However,
in general DECS supports the view that shortages will be experienced towards
the end of the decade and early next decade.[6]
Research conducted by Barbara Preston on behalf of the
Australian Council of Deans of Education has supported the trend of teacher
shortages across Australia.... One needs to be sceptical about workforce
projections. The Deans of Education have a vested interest in the projections
of supply and demand for teachers as well as a responsibility for drawing
attention to employment trends. Clearly the answers change with variations to
the assumptions underlying the estimates such as separation rates... However,
those who wish to dispute the Preston figures have an obligation to show where
they are wrong which will entail research which is equally thorough.[7]
In correspondence to the Committee Ms Preston has defended
her projected separation rates on three grounds. Firstly, she feels the age
structure of the teaching service based on Census data and information on
current and expected ages of retirement indicates significantly increased rates
of retirement in the period in question. DEETYA’s own report states:
Ageing of the Secondary School Teacher employed labour force is
likely to increase wastage rates and result in reduced teacher supply.
(T)he figures do suggest that the impact of retirements in
coming years will be much greater for Secondary School Teachers than
professional occupations as a whole.
Teachers are relatively more concentrated than all professional
occupations in the 35 to 44 year age range, but then appear to leave the
profession more rapidly, being relatively under-represented in the 55 to 59 and
60 and over age ranges.[8]
Secondly, Preston believes the economy will improve in this
period and therefore alternative employment opportunities will become available
for those teachers most likely to leave teaching for other careers (beginning
teachers and those under forty).
Thirdly, while taking into account the pool of unemployed
teachers, Preston contends that DEETYA’s data on this pool is simplistic and
lacking in detail. It is limited to government school teachers, when there is
much movement back and forth between the private and government sectors. In
response to their criticism she states:
(T)he DEETYA report provides no evidence that ‘this pool of
qualified workers has not been adequately taken into account in the Preston
report’ - they have no discussion of the various values I give the ‘Graduates
%’ factor which is where I take the ‘pool’ into account, adjusting its size
according to the magnitude of shortages and surpluses from the previous years.
I believe that my estimates of the period which graduates with no substantial
teaching experience will remain available is generous. In my report I recommend
‘... surveys to provide relevant information on the characteristics of people
with teaching qualifications who are not teaching ... [including] the
conditions under which they would be available for teaching positions.[9]
The pool of teachers seeking employment includes two main
groups. One is re-entrants - those with teaching experience who have resigned
and are seeking to re-enter the profession. There is not likely to be a
significant number in this category as resignations have been limited for some
years. Previously there was a substantial number of women resigning to rear
families who would later re-enter the profession. The second group is of people
who have graduated but have not obtained permanent teaching positions. Their
number is affected by the surplus or shortage of the previous period.
(A)s time goes on members of this pool become less ‘available’
(as establishing partnerships, families and homes restricts them
geographically, and progress in alternative employment usually makes teaching
less and less relatively attractive) and less ‘suitable’ (as their skills and
knowledge become progressively rusty and out of date). [10]
The Committee supports the general conclusions of the
Preston Report. It acknowledges the need for more detailed forecasting of
teacher supply and demand. While this is primarily a State government
responsibility the Committee considers the Commonwealth could also make a
useful contribution by helping to establish a national picture of teacher
supply and demand. For maximum effectiveness this should cover government and
non-government teachers.
Factors influencing supply and demand
Predictions of supply and demand are influenced by a range
of factors.
Demand is affected by:
- numbers of predicted student enrolments in schools
-
pupil/teacher ratios [PTR]
- changes in governments' policies and priorities
- changes to school starting age; and
- secondary school retention rates.
Supply is influenced by:
- numbers of projected graduates entering the teaching profession
- the availability, suitability and mobility of the pool of
unemployed teaching graduates
-
teachers' resignation/retirement rates; and
- patterns of extended leave by currently employed teachers.
Government policy on PTR’s, the school starting age and the
allocation of year 7 to primary or secondary school can all drastically affect
supply and demand. The effect on education enrolments of policy changes to HECS
fee structures and university funding is at this stage unknown. Alterations to
intake rates for university education courses will affect graduation rates four
years later.
Patterns of School Enrolment
The secondary school retention rate has been in decline
since 1992.
Apparent
Retention Rates for full-time secondary students
Years 10, 11, and 12, 1990 - 1996
|
Year |
Year 10 |
Year 11 |
Year 12 |
1990 |
98.2 |
80.5 |
64.0 |
1991 |
98.8 |
86.0 |
71.3 |
1992 |
99.1 |
87.8 |
77.1 |
1993 |
98.3 |
87.4 |
76.6 |
1994 |
97.0 |
85.3 |
74.6 |
1995 |
96.4 |
83.3 |
72.2 |
1996 |
96.7 |
83.4 |
71.3 |
Source: ABS, Schools
Australia, 1990 -1996 (Cat. No. 4221.0)
Movements in the economy and policy changes like the Common
Youth Allowance [CYA] may alter school retention rates substantially. In times
of high employment, year 12 retention rates fall as more students leave school
to take up employment.
From July 1998 unemployment payments, AUSTUDY and other
benefits currently paid to 18 to 20 year olds will be combined as the CYA. This
change will take place from January 1999 in the case of 16 and 17 year olds.
The CYA will contain strong incentives for young, unemployed people to
participate in education. Conservative DEETYA estimates on the effect of the
CYA indicate that an additional 12000 young people aged between 16 and
17 could be returning to school in 1999[11].
Many contend this figure could be much higher. Indeed, many school authorities
are working on an assumption of an increase of around 25000 students
nationally. The Victorian Education Minister, Phil Gude, estimates an increase
of around 6000 students in Victorian government schools alone[12].
Teacher Training, Graduation and Employment
Supply and demand is affected both by enrolments in
education faculties and by the number of graduates entering the profession.
ABS data reveals the percentage of tertiary qualified
employed persons with education as their main field of study who found
employment as teachers was 57.2% in 1993 and 53.9% in 1995.[13]
Education faculties are in transition as three year
pre-service teacher education degree are replaced by four year courses. In
addition, some universities are increasing their graduate diploma of education
courses from one to two years. 1996 was the last year in which three year
trained teachers graduated. The first of the compulsory four-year trained
teachers will graduate in 1998. During the transition, in 1997, there was a
decline in the number of teachers graduating.
If the status of teaching is allowed to decline further,
this will reduce still further the number of education graduates entering the
profession.
Supply and demand is also affected by changes to enrolments
in education faculties. These are currently declining.
At the time of writing, conclusive 1997 enrolment figures
for education faculties in universities were available only for Victoria. This
was the only State in which overall application figures for universities did
not decline sharply. In the last year, Victorian education faculties have
dropped 5.8% in first preference applications and 7.1% in any-other-than-first
preference applications. This compares with a statewide drop in enrolments of
5% for all departments.[14]
Over a two year period there has been a drop of 8.3% and 12.1% respectively.
With the exception of the agricultural and husbandry faculties, the education
faculty has suffered the largest decrease in applications.
A comparison between education and other discipline
completions reveals some surprising facts. An ABS table based on DEETYA’s Selected
Higher Education Statistics shows there has been a growth in education
completions of 5.7% between 1987 and 1994.[15]
This is markedly below the growth of 73.1% for all disciplines. Every other
discipline had a growth of more than 50% except veterinary science, with 26.8%.
Although the growth in education enrolments is from a much higher base than in
other disciplines, a growth rate of 5.7% is significantly below that of other
disciplines.
Higher Education
Student Completions by Fields of Study, 1987 - 94
Field of study
|
1987
no. |
1988
no. |
1989
no. |
1990
no. |
1992
no. |
1992
no. |
1993
no. |
1994
no |
Change
1987
-94 % |
Agriculture,
Animal husbandry
|
1,502 |
1,439 |
1,527 |
1,602 |
1,753 |
2,010 |
2,474 |
2,348 |
56.3 |
Architecture, Building
|
1,580 |
1,858 |
1,655 |
1,966 |
2,181 |
2,461 |
2,576 |
2,715 |
71.8 |
Arts, humanities/ social
sciences
|
17,137 |
18,863 |
18,873 |
19,607 |
22,406 |
25,434 |
27,244 |
29,262 |
70.8 |
Business, Administration,
economics
|
11,829 |
13,030 |
14,419 |
16,856 |
19,915 |
24,136 |
27,365 |
28,692 |
142.6 |
Education
|
22,779 |
23,246 |
23,665 |
22,808 |
25,063 |
24,657 |
25,316 |
24,067 |
5.7 |
Engineering, surveying
|
4,703 |
4,973 |
5,137 |
5,156 |
5,392 |
6,051 |
6,909 |
7,520 |
59.9 |
Health
|
7,436 |
8,977 |
10,168 |
10,955 |
13,145 |
16,173 |
18,719 |
20,068 |
169.9 |
Law, legal studies
|
2,895 |
3,049 |
3,112 |
3,231 |
3,494 |
3,965 |
4,846 |
5,163 |
78.3 |
Science
|
10,075 |
11,072 |
11,598 |
12,086 |
13,844 |
15,294 |
16,999 |
18,712 |
85.7 |
Veterinary Science
|
321 |
304 |
328 |
354 |
368 |
402 |
412 |
407 |
26.8 |
Total award course
completions
|
80,257 |
86,859 |
90,482 |
94,621 |
107,561 |
120,583 |
132,860 |
138,954 |
73.1 |
The total for 1988 includes some students who could
not be classified to a field of study.
Source: A.B.S., Education & Training in
Australia 1996, Table A3.13,p 69
[based on DEETYA Selected Higher Education
Student Statistics]
Higher Education
Student Enrolments by Field of Study, 1987-95
Field of study
|
1987
no. |
1988
no. |
1989
no. |
1990 no. |
1991
no. |
1992
no. |
1993
no. |
1994
no. |
1995
no |
% Diff
87-95 |
Agriculture/Animal husbandry
|
7,061
|
7,603
|
7,656
|
8,559
|
9,876
|
10,491
|
10,988
|
11,426
|
11,850
|
67.8
|
Architectur
Building |
8,974
|
9,323
|
8,678
|
10,724
|
11,243
|
11,894
|
12,373
|
12,998
|
13,550
|
51.0
|
Arts, social sciences/
Humanities |
95,714
|
101,702
|
101,495
|
109,551
|
121,353
|
125,040
|
127,812
|
132,935
|
139,367
|
45.6
|
Business, economics
Admin |
72,688
|
80,700
|
91,592
|
104,825
|
112,666
|
117,104
|
120,526
|
122,315
|
129,177
|
77.7
|
Education
|
72,112
|
72,616
|
72,578
|
74,772
|
79,598
|
78,091
|
76,568
|
72,277
|
70,635
|
-2.0
|
Engineering surveying
|
30,098
|
31,153
|
33,178
|
36,019
|
40,207
|
43,599
|
45,715
|
47,147
|
48,169
|
60.0
|
Health
|
37,328
|
42,894
|
48,195
|
54,498
|
61,875
|
67,181
|
70,763
|
70,885
|
72,137
|
93.3
|
Law, legal studies
|
11,345
|
11,124
|
11,693
|
14,135
|
16,313
|
18,001
|
19,508
|
21,236
|
23,490
|
107.1
|
Science
|
51,422
|
56,021
|
60,706
|
67,330
|
75,961
|
80,690
|
83,678
|
86,136
|
88,172
|
71.5
|
Veterinary science
|
1,458
|
1,494
|
1,526
|
1,534
|
1,612
|
1,682
|
1,718
|
1,690
|
1,674
|
14.8
|
Non-award
|
5,534
|
6,220
|
2,779
|
3,128
|
3,834
|
5,592
|
5,968
|
6,351
|
5,956
|
7.6
|
Total
|
393,734
|
420,850
|
441,076
|
485,075
|
534,538
|
559,365
|
575,617
|
585,396
|
604,177
|
53.4
|
Source: A.B.S. (Education & Training in
Australia), Table A5.25, p 171
The percentage of higher education students enrolling in the
field of education dropped 2% over the period 1987- 1995. Enrolments were
rising until 1991, after which they fell by 11%. Significantly, education was
the only discipline to decline in that eight year period.[16]
Furthermore, 50.2% of all 1995 education commencements were at the postgraduate
level (up from 29.52% in 1987/88[17])
compared with 28% for all disciplines[18].
This is largely due to three year trained teachers upgrading their qualifications.
As an increasing proportion of teachers receive four years of training, the
numbers undertaking post graduate studies to upgrade their qualifications can
be expected to decline further.
The relative decline in education faculty enrolments
suggests teaching as a profession is becoming less attractive. The pattern is
accentuated for some subject areas, such as science.
Ageing and Retirement
The average age of Australian teachers has been steadily
increasing since recruitment of new graduates peaked in the early 1970s. It is
now about 46, with slight variations between States.
A comparison between 1991 and 1996 figures reveals that
while the percentage of teachers over 40 has increased from 40.8% to 54%, the
percentage under 30 has decreased from 21.8% to 16%. In comparison, the
percentage of other professionals over 40 was 47% in 1995[19].
Approximate
age distribution of all Australian teachers
1963,
1979, 1989, 1991, 1996, 2002 |
Age range
|
1963 |
1979 |
1989 |
1991 |
1996 |
2002 |
<20
|
6% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
21-30
|
41% |
51% |
25% |
21.8% |
16% |
22% |
31-40
|
18% |
27% |
40% |
37.3% |
30% |
20% |
41-51
|
15% |
15% |
25% |
29.6% |
38% |
30% |
51-60
|
14% |
7% |
9% |
9.8% |
13% |
22% |
>61
|
4% |
2% |
1% |
1.4% |
3% |
6% |
Source: Preston, B, Teacher Supply and demand to
2003, January 1997, p 55 & 73, Tables 23 & 57
1993 to 1989 - Logan et al (1990) p 3, Derived from
survey information.
1991, 1996 - ABS, 1991 & 1996 Census Data
2002
- Projection assuming current trends in approximate age of retirement, age
ranges of recruits, PTRs, and no large increases in mid to late career
resignations.
Nationally, working on 1997 figures, there are 25,846
teachers in the 45-50 age bracket (11.7%); 15,370 in the 50-54 year bracket
(6.9%); 6,514 in the 55-59 age bracket (2.9%) and 3,168 over 60 years (1.4%).[20]
These figures suggest that in ten years time Australia will have approximately
42,000 or 18.6% of its teachers within the likely-to-retire [55+] age group in
comparison with 9,682 or 4.3% currently aged over 55.
There will be a significant increase in separations at this
time. For example, in South Australia almost 50 per cent of Secondary School
Teachers, Principals and Deputies will be eligible for retirement within the
next decade.[21]
The following table shows the resignation pattern of
teachers in New South Wales in 1991.
Resignation rates
by years of experience, primary and secondary, male and female teachers, NSW
government schools, 1991
Experience
levels
|
Primary |
Secondary |
|
Males |
Females |
Males |
Females |
1 year or
less
|
5.6% |
5.6% |
11.7% |
6.1% |
>1 to 2
years
|
5.6% |
3.0% |
6.9% |
4.7% |
>2 to 3
years
|
2.6% |
2.3% |
4.9% |
1.9% |
>3 to 4
years
|
1.7% |
1.4% |
4.3% |
3.0% |
>4 to 5
years
|
4.6% |
2.3% |
4.4% |
2.0% |
>5 to
10 years
|
0.8% |
4.1% |
2.6% |
2.9% |
>10 to
15 years
|
1.6% |
4.4% |
2.5% |
4.9% |
>15 to
20 years
|
1.3% |
2.5% |
2.1% |
2.9% |
>20 to
25 years
|
0.7% |
2.2% |
2.0% |
2.1% |
> 25
years
|
2.2% |
1.1% |
1.9% |
2.0% |
Moreover, more teachers take early retirement than other
professionals, with most retirements occurring between 55 and 60 years.[22]
This will have a significant impact when:
[i]n the year 2007 the average age of the teaching service in
the New South Wales Department of School Education will be 49 years. Almost
half of the teaching force in the year 2007 will be in their 50s.[23]
University education staff are ageing at an even faster rate
than school teachers. In 1995 their average age was 53.[24]
The impact on the supply of qualified teachers is obvious.
Many of these [university educators] will retire or resign over
the next five to ten years. This means that by the turn of the century not only
is it likely that there will be a significant shortage of teachers, there is
also likely to be a shortage of experienced teacher educators.[25]
Devolution of Staffing Decisions to School Level
The introduction of global budgets and the devolution of
staffing decisions to government schools have compounded the difficulties in
predicting supply and demand of teachers. The decentralisation of recruitment
has added to the difficulty of collecting detailed data on teachers and their
availability, and in ensuring that those who are willing to relocate out of
their area for employment have the maximum opportunity to do so.
The trend to school-based recruitment will exacerbate the
difficulty of filling positions in hard to staff schools.
A general shortage requires central, system-wide measures ... In
systems where staffing decisions were devolved to the school’s governing body,
as in the United Kingdom, New Zealand, and Victoria, Australia, there is little
scope for effective local action to address shortage without additional budget
allowance or the acceptance of emergency certification. The problem is made
worse if the school happens to be in an area difficult to staff. Devolution in
these three countries happened to be introduced at a time of teacher surplus
.... A shortage of teachers will provide the acid test of devolved staffing
methods.[26]
Another example of the difficulties involved with
recruitment under a devolved system was revealed in correspondence to the
Committee about a 1996 Australian Education Union survey in Tasmania. This
showed that nine out of ten schools had difficulty filling teaching positions.
In certain cases the Principal was forced to take classes when suitable
teachers could not be found. Some schools indicated that the majority of
candidates contacted from the list of teachers available for employment were in
fact not available. Indicators of serious shortages in some parts of the State
included:
- seven
schools had employed student teachers
- five
schools had employed ‘teachers’ without qualifications
- teachers were employed with inappropriate qualifications - for
example, an early childhood teacher teaching secondary maths.[27]
The Committee considers this aspect of devolution to be a
major concern, the implications of which have not yet been fully appreciated.
If governments are serious about ensuring an equitable and quality educational
provision across schools then they must see that schools have access to the
full range of teaching subject expertise. It is important that individual
school programs are not driven simply by the pool of locally available teachers.
The problem is compounded where schools compete for staff in short supply. Well
resourced schools in middle class areas will be much better placed to attract
the range of teachers they need. Disadvantaged schools will have their
disadvantage compounded if their curriculum choices are severely constrained by
teacher availability.
Variations in supply and demand
The state of the economy in general has an effect on the
resignation and commencement rates of teachers. When the economy is strong, the
number of graduates entering teaching declines and teacher resignation rates go
up. Conversely, when alternative employment prospects are limited, more
graduates enter their field of study and more teachers who would like to resign
remain in the profession.
Supply and demand projections have many dimensions and
complexities beyond the straightforward consideration of issues of oversupply
and undersupply. These are detailed in Preston's Report, which considers the
substantial differences in supply and demand between locations, between primary
and secondary schools and between subject areas.
Differences between States
These are highlighted in the following table.
|
Supply as a percentage of demand - 1997/8/9 average |
Supply as a percentage of demand - average 2000/1/2 |
|
Primary |
Secondary |
Primary |
Secondary |
NSW
|
91% |
113% |
75% |
85% |
VIC
|
93% |
80% |
62% |
43% |
QLD
|
49% |
62% |
55% |
87% |
WA
|
72% |
76% |
65% |
78% |
SA
|
112% |
42% |
73% |
41% |
TAS
|
93% |
114% |
68% |
149% |
ACT
|
88% |
81% |
69% |
47% |
NT
|
(Graduates are only a very small proportion of
recruits, so the NT is vulnerable to effects of shortfalls interstate)
|
Source: Preston, 1997, p 2,
Tables 1 to 16 pp 35-51
Differences between Regions
The staffing of rural and remote schools continues to be a
problem nationwide, particularly in the Northern Territory, Queensland and
Western Australia. While there may be an excess of teachers in city locations,
this does not guarantee they will be able or willing to move to rural or remote
areas to take up teaching positions. The following evidence relates to
Victoria, but is equally applicable in other jurisdictions.
[Teachers]may also be highly immobile. There are very large
numbers of teachers in Victoria, we discovered, who were on the list but would
only teach in a school within three kilometres radius of their home. This meant
that some 60 per cent of the people on the availability list were not available
for employment in the schools where vacancies might occur. There are some very
significant holes in the highly generalised data that ministries are using to
answer this question. I think that speaks to a point that the Preston report
has made continuously and that the deans have made and that is that the
generalised data that DEETYA relies upon is not sophisticated enough to give a
precise delineation either of supply or of demand.
It is not broken down geographically in a precise enough way. It
is not broken down between primary and secondary in any sophisticated way. It
is not broken down in discipline areas in a very sophisticated way.[28]
Witnesses described how professional and personal isolation
was a disincentive to country appointment. Other problems faced by teachers in
rural and remote communities include:
- decreasing school populations
- dwindling community support
-
limited curriculum options, resulting in teachers often being
asked to teach outside their area of expertise
- higher youth unemployment and suicide rates
-
security and accommodation problems
- limited access to professional development.
A special incentive program is needed to attract teachers to
these areas and to retain them there. South Australia, for example, has
recently announced a package of incentives designed to attract principals to
country areas.
Differences between Subject Disciplines
In its submission to the Inquiry, DEETYA pointed out that there
were shortages in some subject areas in secondary schools.
[There] are shortages ... in particular specialisations, such as
information technology, certain languages (particularly some Asian languages),
physical education, music and mathematics/science. With the exception of
information technology, these shortages are confined to one or two states, the
particular specialisations in shortage often varying from State to State.[29]
The Australian Association of Mathematics Teachers believes
that DEETYA's claims do not reveal the true extent of the problem.
In a report to the Conference of Education Systems’ Chief
Executive Officers (March, 1997), the AAMT collated government systems’
responses to the issue of supply of mathematics teachers. Of those included,
all except NSW indicated current concern about the issue.[30]
A survey conducted by one of the Affiliates of the AAMT, the
Mathematical Association of Victoria (December, 1996) has revealed that there
are a number of regional schools already who do not have an appropriately
qualified mathematics teacher (that is, a degree with at least two years of
recognised tertiary mathematics study and an approved course of study in
teaching mathematics). If this situation deteriorates further, it is inevitable
that the status of teachers of mathematics will slip even further as
unqualified and inexperienced staff are employed to teach mathematics.[31]
The Australian Science Teachers Association supports this
latter view.
There are currently acute shortages of qualified science teacher
at all levels in secondary schools, and particularly of physics and chemistry
teachers in some States and Territories.[32]
ASTA frequently hears anecdotal evidence of teachers with poor
or no training in science method being asked to teach science classes. In a
subject where practical work should be frequent, and could be dangerous in the
hands of inexperienced, non-science trained teachers, this is an ongoing area
of concern.[33]
Proposed Remedies
Witnesses suggested a number of measures to improve the
match between supply and demand. These included closer monitoring than
currently occurs of the ‘pool’ of teachers listed as available. The Council of
Deans of Education drew the Committee's attention to some shortcomings in the
present monitoring arrangements.
As I understand it, the situation in New South Wales is very
similar to that in Victoria. Previously the ministry there has simply asked
teachers who have entered their names on the list for possible employment
whether they wish to remain on the list or not. If they wish to remain on the
list, that is one thing; but whether they are actually available for employment
is another question altogether. They may already be in satisfactory employment
and wish to use teacher education as a possible backstop for loss of current
employment.[34]
Clearly the analysis of teaching supply and demand needs to
be much more sophisticated. Information on teaching requirements by subject
discipline, for example, would facilitate a more targeted approach to the
recruitment and training of teachers.
The Ministerial Council on Employment, Education, Training
and Youth Affairs [MCEETYA] is currently undertaking two initiatives relating
to teacher supply and demand. The first is the establishment of a Teacher
Recruitment Taskforce to develop a recruitment strategy that could be adapted
by State and Territory governments to suit local circumstances. The Taskforce
is to present a proposal for a media campaign to be considered by MCEETYA in
April 1998. The second initiative is the monitoring and annual reporting to
MCEETYA by States on teacher supply and demand.
The Committee RECOMMENDS that the Commonwealth Government
require State and Territory governments, as part of their contribution to the
National Report on Schooling, to include information on teacher supply and
demand in government and non-government schools, with detailed figures to be
included in the Statistical Appendix to that document.
The following tables describe the factors influencing demand
and supply of teachers in Australia.
This information is taken from Barbara Preston’s work
Teacher supply and demand to 2003 – projections, implications and issues, Australian
Council of Deans of Education, 1997.
Primary teacher
demand and supply projections, 1996 to 2003
|
1996
|
1997
|
1998
|
1999
|
2000
|
2001
|
2002
|
2003
|
Total graduates
(demand) |
3,495
|
4,810
|
6,192
|
7,460
|
8,310
|
8,520
|
8,832
|
8,722
|
Total graduates
(supply) |
4,600
|
4,557
|
4,487
|
4,994
|
5,600
|
5,704
|
5,598
|
5,614
|
Surplus/shortage
(no) |
1,105
|
-253
|
-1,705
|
-2,466
|
-2,710
|
-2,816
|
-3,234
|
-3,108
|
Supply as % of
demand |
132%
|
95%
|
72%
|
67%
|
67%
|
67%
|
63%
|
64%
|
Source: Tables 1,3,5,7,9,11,13
& 15. Preston 1997 Page 52, Table 17
Secondary teacher
demand and supply projections, 1996 to 2003
|
1996
|
1997
|
1998
|
1999
|
2000
|
2001
|
2002
|
2003
|
Total graduates
(demand) |
3,854
|
5,434
|
6,468
|
7,054
|
7,469
|
7,877
|
8,703
|
9,545
|
Total graduates
(supply) |
5,350
|
5,283
|
4,762
|
4,827
|
5,498
|
5,574
|
5,522
|
5,570
|
Surplus/shortage
(no) |
1,496
|
-151
|
-1,706
|
2,227
|
-1,971
|
-2,303
|
-3,181
|
-3,975
|
Supply as % of
Demand |
139%
|
97%
|
74%
|
68%
|
74%
|
71%
|
63%
|
58%
|
Source: Tables
2,4,6,8,10,12,14&16. Preston 1997 Page 52, Table 18
Total teacher
demand and supply projections, 1996 to 2003
|
1996
|
1997
|
1998
|
1999
|
2000
|
2001
|
2002
|
2003
|
Total graduates
(demand) |
7,349
|
10,244
|
12,660
|
14,514
|
15,779
|
16,397
|
17,535
|
18,267
|
Total graduates
(supply) |
9,950
|
9,840
|
9,249
|
9,821
|
11,098
|
11,278
|
11,120
|
11,184
|
Surplus/shortages
(no) |
2,601
|
-404
|
-3,411
|
-4,693
|
-4,681
|
-5,119
|
-6,415
|
-7,083
|
Supply as % of
Demand |
135%
|
96%
|
73%
|
68%
|
70%
|
69%
|
63%
|
61%
|
Source: Tables 17 & 18
Preston 1997 Page 52, Table 19
Primary student’s
enrolments, actual 1985, 1990 and 1995,
and projected 2000, States and Territories and Australia ('000)
|
NSW
|
VIC
|
QLD
|
WA
|
SA
|
TAS
|
NT
|
ACT
|
AUST
|
1985
|
586.3
|
433.4
|
296.9
|
160.7
|
144.6
|
46.8
|
21.5
|
32.1
|
1,722.2
|
1990
|
588.1
|
428.8
|
314.0
|
177.4
|
151.7
|
48.2
|
22.7
|
32.5
|
1,763.2
|
1995
|
606.0
|
431.6
|
341.9
|
187.1
|
161.9
|
47.6
|
24.6
|
32.8
|
1,833.7
|
2000
|
625.2
|
423.1
|
378.3
|
190.7
|
160.4
|
46.5
|
25.9
|
34.8
|
1,884.8
|
Change
85-90 (%) |
0.3%
|
-1.1%
|
5.8%
|
10.4%
|
4.9%
|
3.0%
|
5.6%
|
1.2%
|
2.4%
|
Change
90-95 (%) |
3.0%
|
0.7%
|
8.9%
|
5.5%
|
6.7%
|
-1.2%
|
8.4%
|
0.9%
|
4.0%
|
Change
95-2000(%) |
3.2%
|
-2.0%
|
10.6%
|
1.9%
|
-0.9%
|
-2.3%
|
5.3%
|
6.1%
|
2.8%
|
Source: 1985-1995 ABS; 2000 - DEETYA Schools and
Curriculum Division Projections of School Enrolments.
1996 to 2005 Preston 1997 Page 58, Table 27.
Secondary student
enrolments, actual 1985, 1990 and 1995,
and projected 2000, States and Territories and Australia ('000)
|
NSW
|
VIC
|
QLD
|
WA
|
SA
|
TAS
|
NT
|
ACT
|
AUST
|
1985
|
437.5
|
369.0
|
189.9
|
104.0
|
101.5
|
36.6
|
9.4
|
26.8
|
1,274.7
|
1990
|
442.5
|
355.5
|
207.3
|
107.5
|
91.1
|
36.2
|
9.6
|
28.5
|
1,278.2
|
1995
|
449.8
|
338.7
|
214.2
|
114.6
|
82.9
|
37.1
|
10.2
|
28.3
|
1,275.7
|
2000
|
460.9
|
343.3
|
239.2
|
123.7
|
90.8
|
34.6
|
9.7
|
29.9
|
1,332.1
|
Change
85-90 (%) |
1.1%
|
-3.7%
|
9.2%
|
3.4%
|
-10.2%
|
-1.1%
|
2.1%
|
6.3%
|
0.3%
|
Change
90-95 (%) |
1.6%
|
-4.7%
|
3.3%
|
6.6%
|
-9.0%
|
2.5%
|
6.2%
|
-0.7%
|
-0.2%
|
Change
95-2000 (%) |
2.5%
|
1.4%
|
11.7%
|
7.9%
|
9.5%
|
-6.7%
|
-4.9%
|
5.7%
|
4.4%
|
Source: 1985 - 1995 ABS; 2000 - DEETYA Schools and
Curriculum Division Projections of School Enrolments,
1996 to 2005. Preston 1997 Page 58, Table 28
Secondary
Schools: Full-time Pupil to Teaching staff Ratio
(Full time equivalent units) By category of school,
1990 - 1996 |
School Type
|
1990
|
1991
|
1992
|
1993
|
1994
|
1995
|
1996
|
Government
|
12.0
|
12.3
|
12.1
|
12.1
|
12.4
|
12.5
|
12.7
|
Anglican
|
12.4
|
12.3
|
12.2
|
12.1
|
12.0
|
11.7
|
11.8
|
Catholic
|
14.0
|
14.0
|
14.0
|
13.8
|
13.7
|
13.6
|
13.7
|
Other
non-government
|
13.3
|
13.2
|
13.1
|
13.0
|
12.9
|
12.8
|
12.8
|
Source: ABS, Schools
Australia 1990 - 1996 (Cat. No. 4221.0)
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