Appendix 6 - Methodology for projected funding for non-Government Schools
Methodology
- The following information uses private and state per capita
funding trends over 1996-2000 as published in the annual National Report on
Schooling (ANR) as the basis for the private and state income projections.
Using these figures, the average annual per capita increases in income between
1996 and 2000 were calculated as follows:
- Catholic education system: Private
income $105.5
- Catholic education system: State
income $56.5
- Other non-government schools: Private income $212.75
- Other non-government schools: State income $46.0
- These figures were used to obtain per capita income estimates for
2001 to 2004. The estimates were then multiplied by enrolment projections
provided by the Department of Education, Science and Training (DEST) to obtain
projections of income from private and State sources.
- Commonwealth income projections are as provided by DEST in an
answer to a Question on Notice in Senate committee hearings. These projections
are expressed in financial years. Given that the ANR data is expressed in
program (calendar) year terms, it has been assumed for the purposes of this
exercise that the Commonwealth data for each financial year equates to the
second calendar year, ie. 2003-04 equates to 2004.
- AGSRC projections were calculated using movements in the AGSRC
from 1996 to 2002.
Projections
Projected Income for the
Catholic Education System, 2001-04
|
Year
|
Private
$million
|
State
$million
|
C’wealth
$million
|
Total
$million
|
2001
|
1 117.0
|
775.8
|
2 148.2
|
4 041.0
|
2002
|
1 196.4
|
820.7
|
2 353.0
|
4 370.1
|
2003
|
1 275.5
|
865.2
|
2 549.2
|
4 689.9
|
2004
|
1 352.7
|
908.2
|
2 805.6
|
5 066.5
|
Total
2001-2004
|
4 941.6
|
3 369.9
|
9 855.9
|
18 167.4
|
|
Projected Income for
Other Non-Government Schools, 2001-04
|
Year
|
Private
$million
|
State
$million
|
C’wealth
$million
|
Total
$million
|
2001
|
2 427.9
|
470.1
|
1 161.7
|
4 059.7
|
2002
|
2 559.1
|
497.6
|
1 274.5
|
4 331.2
|
2003
|
2 692.6
|
525.5
|
1 380.0
|
4 598.1
|
2004
|
2 821.4
|
552.6
|
1 519.2
|
4 893.2
|
Total
2001-2004
|
10 501.0
|
2 045.8
|
5 335.9
|
17 882.7
|
To compare
these figures with the estimated total value of AGSRC for 2004 the following
methodology was used:
- the average annual increase in AGSRC between 1996 and 2002 was
$292 (Primary) and $333.8 (Secondary);
- using the above annual increases, estimated AGSRC in 2004 will be
$6 241 (Primary) and $8 137 (Secondary);
- projected enrolments in the Catholic education system for 2004
are 621 631. (DEST answer to Senate Estimates Question E493, 2001-2002
Additional Senate Estimates Hearing). Using the 2000 proportions of primary and
secondary enrolments in the Catholic system (per ANR 2000) gives an estimated
2004 enrolment of 347 492 (Primary) and 274 139 (Secondary).
- multiplying these figures by the projected AGSRC for 2004 gives a
total projected AGSRC value of $4 399.4 million for a comparable number of
students.
- projected enrolments for other non-government schools for 2004
are 441 045. (DEST answer to Senate Estimates Question E493, 2001-2002
Additional Senate Estimates Hearing). Using the 2000 proportions of primary and
secondary enrolments in other non-government schools (per ANR 2000) gives an
estimated 2004 enrolment of 196 706 (Primary) and 244 339 (Secondary).
- multiplying these figures by the projected AGSRC for 2004 gives a
total projected AGSRC value of $3 215.8 million for a comparable number of
students.
Conclusions
- Projected income from all sources over the quadrennium for the
Catholic education system will be $18 167 million.
-
Projected income from all sources over the quadrennium for other
non-government schools will be $17 883 million.
- The projected total income of the Catholic education system in
2004 ($5 067 m) will be $529 million higher than the projected 2004 AGSRC total
of $4 538 million for a comparable number of students, while that of other
non-government schools ($4 893 m) will be $355 million higher.
- Thus on current funding trends, the Catholic education system
will in 2004 have an estimated total income 11.7 per cent higher than the
estimated total cost of educating primary and secondary students in government
schools. For other non-government schools, estimated total income will be 7.8
per cent higher.
Navigation: Previous Page | Contents