Additional Comments from Dr Monique Ryan MP

1.1Australia is already experiencing the economic and social impact of the climate crisis.

1.2Globally, the IPCC has noted that we have already surpassed the 1.5° mark of planetary warming relative to pre-industrial times. It’s a tipping point for accelerated warming of our planet. The acceleration of climate change is reflected in recent increases in the global mean surface temperature and in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.

1.3Climate pollution, caused by the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas, is already causing increasingly severe bushfires, floods and heat waves in Australia. Australians have lost homes, farms and livelihoods, and are paying higher prices for food and insurance, because of extreme weather events and decreased agricultural productivity caused by climate change.

1.4In response to these changes, the Australian government has committed to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions to 43% below 2005 levels by 2030, and to zero by 2050, having legislated this target in the Climate Change Act of 2022, the first legislation passed by the 47th Parliament of Australia. Additionally, the federal government has pledged to an 82% renewable energy mix by 2030, having committed significantly to investment in green energy projects to that end. The government has also worked with industry in fostering and facilitating the energy transition.

1.5Australia's energy production has historically been largely dependent on coal and gas, but the last few decades have seen a marked expansion in our renewables capacity.

1.6Electricity generation from coal is anticipated to decrease by 46% by 2030, and to cease by 2038, under the Australian Energy Market Operator’s integrated system plan (ISP) for our national electricity market (NEM).

1.7Australia’s energy requirements are forecast to almost double by 2050, with AEMO identifying energy-intensive data centres, cryptocurrency, and AI as necessitating a marked increase in our energy requirements in the coming decades.

1.8Renewable energy sources like wind and solar, backed by storage, are already providing about 40% of the electricity in our national electricity market, up from only 20% six years ago. More than 4 million Australian homes - one in three households in Australia – have already committed to renewable energy through purchase of rooftop solar.

1.9Industry has made the commitment to the renewable energy transition, having already built more than 20 GW of wind, solar and storage projects in the NEM, with a further 284 GW in planning or preparation.

1.10This Inquiry into nuclear power generation in Australia was prompted by release of the federal Coalition’s proposal to build nuclear reactors on seven retiring or retired coal sites across several states of Australia. The proposal released on 19 June 2024 was for two initial projects using small modular, or larger reactors, expected to produce electricity by 2035 or 2037, respectively. The proposal was that the reactors should be government-owned, but built and operated in partnership with companies (presumably international companies) with experience in building and running nuclear reactors.

1.11The Inquiry was short but intensive. The committee received more than 900 individual submissions, and thousands of letters and emails. It held 19 public meetings and undertook several site visits.

1.12The conclusions of the Inquiry are clear:

• There are considerable roadblocks to nuclear energy in this country.

• Even were all state, territory, and federal governments in policy alignment, it would take some time to overturn existing legislated bans on nuclear energy, and transport and management of nuclear waste. Several state governments havepreviously ruled out such legislation.
• Necessary regulatory framework for health, safety, security, environmental impacts, and transport of fuels and waste would likely take some years to develop.
• Australia currently lacks the workforce and technical capability required for building multiple large-scale nuclear reactors.

• Independent experts (including from the CSIRO and Australian Energy Regulator) repeatedly told the Inquiry that it would take at least 15 years to build a single nuclear reactor – possibly as long as 25 years. Australia's coal power stations will all shut down well before nuclear energy could come online. In the interim, the Coalition has indicated that it plans to delay closure of the existing coal-fired power plants and increase our (currently declining) use of gas.
• The Coalition’s proposal would provide only 15% of the country’s electricity requirements by 2050. Assuming the five locations within the NEM nominated by the Coalition hosted 2GW of nuclear generation capacity by 2050, this would provide only ~78GWh of electricity annually. This is less than the electricity currently provided to the NEM by renewables.
• Under current projections, by 2030 more than 84% of the main national electricity grid will be powered by renewables; 96% by 2035.A balanced mix of wind, solar, batteries, pumped hydro and very small amounts of gas peaking will provide reliable, renewable electricity around the clock- including times when electricity demand is high, and wind and sun resources are low.
• Nuclear power is the most expensive form of energy. AEMO’s 2024 ISP estimates that the capital cost of all required transmission, utility-scale generation, storage and firming required in the NEM until 2050 is about $383 billion. Across Australia, building 11 GW of nuclear capacity - to give 15% of our energy needs - would cost at least $116 billion, and up to $600 billion dollars (Smart Energy Council, 2024).The current energy transition is significantly underwritten by investors using private capital. Under nuclear, Australian taxpayers would bear all of these costs.
• Nuclear power does not compete economically. Several of Australia’s largest energy companies - including AGL, Alinta, EnergyAustralia, and Origin – have indicated that they will not invest in nuclear energy.
• Australians would pay more for electricity generated from nuclear plants. Wholesale electricity prices have dropped as the amount of low-cost wind and solar in the grid has increased. This has left inflexible generators, like coal, struggling to compete. Nuclear power is also inflexible. For it to generate enough revenue in the market to recover its operational and capital costs, the government will have to turn renewables off, and/or guarantee a price for nuclear generation. The cost of electricity would have to rise to nuclear power’s levelized cost of electricity. This would increase power prices by over $665/ year on average, or $972 per year for a four-person household.
• Nuclear energy lacks social licence in many parts of Australia. There are persisting and appropriate concerns regarding the absence of any plan for permanent disposal of waste produced by nuclear power plants.
• Australia is an increasingly arid continent. CSIRO data shows that the annual water inflow to the Murray-Darling Basin alone has almost halved over the last 20 years. The impact of nuclear power generation on Australia's water supplies has been inadequately considered by the Coalition in its proposal.
  13. Australia’s energy policy should be based on science and on evidence. Independent experts have repeatedly advised the government that the fastest and most economic route to net zero in this country is via commitment to and investment in renewable forms of energy. Those experts include the Australian Energy Market Operator, the Climate Change Authority, the Climate Council of Australia, and energy regulators. All agree that nuclear is not an economically viable or appropriate energy solution for Australia.
  14. Many who testified to this committee expressed the concern that the Coalition is proposing nuclear power as a means of distracting the Australian population from the urgent task of replacing diminishing coal power, and increasingly expensive gas stores, with renewable power from wind, solar, hydro, and other sources.
  15. An ongoing pursuit of nuclear energy options will only perpetuate and increase Australia's reliance on coal and gas, while undermining policy and investment certainty in clean energy technologies and increasing climate pollution, thereby exposing Australians to accelerated climate harm.
  16. This Inquiry followed a large number of previous state and federal inquiries into nuclear power; there have been four in the last decade alone. It should be the last.
  17. We must draw a line under nuclear in this country. We must commit to the net zero transition at speed and at scale. We must trust the markets, the investors, and the scientists, not politicians pushed by the fossil fuel companies who are often their major donors.

Dr Monique Ryan MPMember for Kooyong