11
November 2020
PDF version [340KB]
Dr Damon
Muller
Politics and Public Administration
Section
Introduction
The 2020 Northern Territory (NT) election was held on 22
August 2020. It was the first Australian state or territory election held
during the COVID-19 pandemic. This quick guide summarises the election and its
results, and the political context in the lead up to the election and
immediately following.
The writ for the election was issued on Thursday
30 July 2020. Early and postal voting began on Monday 10 August, as did
mobile polling involving polling teams travelling to remote communities to
collect votes. The election results were declared on Monday
7 September 2020.
The election saw the Gunner Labor government returned for a
second term with a reduced majority.
Background
The Northern Territory has a unicameral Legislative Assembly
with 25 electoral districts, each electing one member. The Electoral
Act 2004 (NT) requires that a general election be held for the NT
Legislative Assembly on the 4th Saturday in August every four years.
In terms of Australian elections, NT elections are
relatively distinctive for a number of reasons. Electoral districts in the NT
are relatively small by population, averaging around 5,600 voters per
electorate at the 2020 election. Some commentators have noted that this
translates into a much more personal
approach to politics, with candidates potentially able to personally meet
each one of the electors in their electorate. The NT is also the only
Australian jurisdiction where ballot papers feature photographs
of all of the candidates.
NT elections also have historically low levels of turnout,
with only around half the enrolled electors in one electorate, Arafura,
voting at the 2020 election. The NT has a large number of remote communities,
with many votes taken by mobile polling teams who travel from community to
community in the early voting period. Some
electorates have no traditional polling places—with all votes taken
either from mobile polling or postal voting.
The NT’s electoral system has changed twice in recent
years. Optional preferential voting was introduced
for the 2016 territory election. The 2016 change to optional preferential
voting was introduced by the Giles CLP government and aimed to reduce
the level of informal voting. In
2019 the NT Assembly legislated to revert to compulsory full preferential
voting, and the 2020 NT election was conducted on this basis. The reasons given for
the 2019 change back to compulsory full preferences were consistency with local
and federal government elections, both of which use compulsory preferencing,
and to ‘encourage the full engagement of voters in [the] electoral system’.
The previous election was held on 27 August 2016 and, as
noted above, was conducted using optional preferential voting. At the 2016
election the Australian Labor Party (ALP) won 18 seats, compared to two for
the CLP and five for independents (the 2016 election is discussed in a previous
Library publication).
An electoral redistribution in late 2019 resulted in only
minor changes to the boundaries of electorates. The new
boundaries notionally moved one seat (Namatjira) from Labor to CLP, but
improved Labor’s margins in two marginal seats, Braitling and
Katherine.
Due to defections, resignations and the formation of a new
party since the 2016 election, the composition of the Assembly just prior to
the 2020 election was quite different from the Assembly that convened after the
2016 election.
Leadership and other party changes
In early 2020 the NT Opposition Leader Gary Higgins announced
that he would be standing down as Leader and would not contest the 2020
election. He was replaced by Deputy Leader Lia Finocchiaro (the only other CLP
member in the Legislative Assembly).
In late 2018 Labor Chief Minister Michael Gunner sacked three
members of caucus—Aboriginal Affairs Minister Ken Vowles and
backbenchers Jeff Collins and Scott McConnell—for criticising the
Government. Vowles resigned in early 2020, triggering a by-election for his
electorate of Johnston. At the 2020 election Collins and McConnell
unsuccessfully stood as TA and independent candidates respectively.
The advent of the Territory
Alliance
The formation
of the Territory Alliance was first mooted by former CLP chief minister
Terry Mills in September 2019 as a conservative-leaning party targeting
disaffected voters. Mr Mills had lost the leadership of the CLP, and position
as Chief Minister, when he was replaced by Adam Giles in 2013. He then
re-entered Parliament as an independent in 2016. The TA party was submitted
for registration in September 2019.
The first group of candidates presented by the TA in
November 2019 were characterised by media
reports as ‘familiar faces from the far right side of
politics’. One of the new party’s first acts was to nominate
a former CLP candidate as their candidate for the Johnston by-election (see
further below).
By March 2020 a Labor backbencher (Jeff Collins) and a former
CLP-turned independent MLA (Robyn Lambley) had joined the party, resulting in the
TA having three members in the Legislative Assembly compared to the CLP’s
two members. This change in numbers left the TA as the official Opposition in
the Assembly, which according to media
reports was ‘unprecedented in Territory parliament history’.
That situation only lasted a week, however, until a
vote in the Assembly on 24 March assigned the CLP the status of official Opposition
party.
The TA nominated candidates in 21 of the 25 seats at the August
2020 election but won only one seat, Robyn Lambley in Araluen. However Ms Lambley left the party shortly after the
election, choosing to sit again as an independent. This means that, as at time
of publication of this paper, the TA has no members in the NT Legislative
Assembly.
The Johnston by-election
On 29 February 2020 a by-election was held in the division
of Johnston, located in suburban Darwin, with Labor
winning the seat (although with a swing against), narrowly beating the TA. As
noted above, the by-election was triggered by the resignation of Labor minister
Ken Vowles.
Before the by-election the TA had been tipped
to win Johnston, which had traditionally been a safe Labor seat. Some
commentators suggested that the Labor win was at least partly due to the
Country Liberals and the TA ‘fighting one another’.
The swing against Labor prompted an apology
from the Chief Minister, saying that Labor ‘need[s] to work even
harder to earn your vote back’.
COVID-19 and the election
While the threat of the COVID-19 pandemic loomed over the
election, the overall effect turned out to be relatively minor. In April 2020
the Government confirmed that it was still intending to hold the election on
the expected
date and that voting would still be in
person, appropriately socially distanced.
In the early days of the pandemic restrictions were imposed
on travel to remote communities, however by the time the election commenced
these restrictions had been lifted and did not affect access to remote voting.
However the restrictions did result in the suspension of the Northern Territory
Electoral Commission’s (NTEC) remote
enrolment programs.
Consistent with the trends seen in other Australian
elections during the pandemic, voters
were encouraged to use postal
and pre-poll
voting. The NTEC published a COVID-19
Management Plan outlining how it would conduct the election safely.
Polling
In late
June a poll commissioned by the Territory Alliance found that Labor and the
TA were each likely to win at least seven seats, with the CLP likely to win at
least two, two likely to go to independents, and seven too close to call.
Immediately before the election the betting markets had
Labor as favourites to win, with Sportsbet paying $1.35
for a Labor win. The betting odds a bit earlier, at the
start of September, had tipped a Labor win, with the chances of a TA
minority government being seen as more likely, at $3.25, than a CLP government (at
$4.00). Regular NT News election analyst Burt
the psychic crocodile was consulted, and tipped the CLP to win—although,
having tipped Labor leader Bill Shorten to win at the 2019 federal election, it
appears that Burt is not infallible.
NT
News polling found CLP leader Lia Finocchiaro to be preferred Chief
Minister, with 56 per cent of the vote.
Results
The ALP won 14 of the 25 seats, with the CLP winning eight,
the TA winning one seat, and two seats going to independents. A summary of the
primary votes and seats won is in Table 1 and Figure 1 below. The full
two-candidate preferred results by electorate are in Appendix A. Appendix B
lists appointees to the post-election Cabinet.
Table 1: Summary of first preference votes and seats won
| Party |
Votes |
Votes (%) |
Seats |
| ALP |
40 291 |
39.4 |
14 |
| CLP |
32 021 |
31.3 |
8 |
| TA |
13 184 |
12.9 |
1 |
| Ind |
10 977 |
10.7 |
2 |
| GRN |
4 453 |
4.4 |
|
| FP |
942 |
0.9 |
|
| BFFCPW |
226 |
0.2 |
|
| AJP |
78 |
0.1 |
|
Source: Parliamentary Library analysis of NTEC
results. See Appendix C for party abbreviations.
Close results, with margins
of 100 votes or fewer, necessitated recounts in the divisions of Araluen,
Arnhem, Barkly, Blain, Daly and Namatjira.
Figure 1: Votes and seats won by party at the 2020 NT election
Source: Parliamentary Library analysis of NTEC
results.
Early voting
The August 2020 election saw a notable increase in early
voting, however the figures generally followed the election-by-election
increase in early voting trend over the past few elections (see Figure 2 below). Votes issued over the early voting period are in Figure 3 below.
Figure 2: Votes issued for postal, early and remote mobile voting at NT elections, 2008–20
Note: Figures for previous elections are from NTEC election
reports for the respective elections (2008,
2012
and 2016).
Figures from 2020 election supplied by the NTEC. Figures represent numbers of
issued votes, which do not necessarily exactly correlate to the numbers of
votes counted.
As noted above, early and postal voting was encouraged by
the NTEC as a COVID-safe measure. According to figures provided by the NTEC,
early voting represented 57.0 per cent of the votes counted at the election,
with postal votes accounting for 9.7 per cent and remote mobile polling 11.4
per cent. In total, only 22 per cent of the vote was cast at static polling
places on election day.
Figure 3: Early votes issued by day for the 2020 NT election
Source: Data supplied by the NTEC.
Turnout and informality
The final turnout for the election was 74.9 per cent, which
was slightly above the 2016
election turnout of 74.0 per cent, and generally in line with recent
elections.
The NTEC released
a statement that the remote voting turnout in ‘bush’
electorates had been poor. The statement attributed this in part to the
COVID-19 pandemic, but also to low levels of enrolment and engagement in remote
communities.
The rate of informal voting was 3.5 per cent, which was an
increase on the informality rate at the 2016
election of 2.0 per cent. The requirement for full preferential voting
likely resulted in the increase in informal voting compared to 2016, where
optional preferential voting was used.
Appendix A: Two-candidate preferred
results
| Electorate |
Votes |
Percent |
Winner |
|
ALP |
CLP |
Ind |
TA |
Total |
ALP |
CLP |
Ind |
TA |
Turnout |
Informal |
|
| Arafura |
1 388 |
1 203 |
|
|
2 733 |
50.79 |
44.02 |
|
|
52.70 |
5.2 |
ALP |
| Araluen |
|
2 161 |
|
2 203 |
4 521 |
|
47.80 |
|
48.73 |
78.70 |
3.5 |
TA |
| Arnhem |
1 508 |
|
1 416 |
|
3 156 |
47.78 |
|
44.87 |
|
58.10 |
7.4 |
ALP |
| Barkly |
1 717 |
1 724 |
|
|
3 597 |
47.73 |
47.93 |
|
|
63.20 |
4.3 |
CLP |
| Blain |
2 095 |
2 082 |
|
|
4 315 |
48.55 |
48.25 |
|
|
75.80 |
3.2 |
ALP |
| Braitling |
2 141 |
2 254 |
|
|
4 532 |
47.24 |
49.74 |
|
|
77.70 |
3.0 |
CLP |
| Brennan |
2 138 |
2 242 |
|
|
4 526 |
47.24 |
49.54 |
|
|
78.80 |
3.2 |
CLP |
| Casuarina |
3 035 |
1 566 |
|
|
4 718 |
64.33 |
33.19 |
|
|
83.60 |
2.5 |
ALP |
| Daly |
1 890 |
1 984 |
|
|
4 131 |
45.75 |
48.03 |
|
|
73.50 |
6.2 |
CLP |
| Drysdale |
2 261 |
1 644 |
|
|
4 109 |
55.03 |
40.01 |
|
|
70.50 |
5.0 |
ALP |
| Fannie Bay |
2 588 |
1 757 |
|
|
4 430 |
58.42 |
39.66 |
|
|
80.90 |
1.9 |
ALP |
| Fong Lim |
2 197 |
1 978 |
|
|
4 305 |
51.03 |
45.95 |
|
|
77.50 |
3.0 |
ALP |
| Goyder |
|
2 030 |
2 665 |
|
4 884 |
|
41.56 |
54.57 |
|
87.50 |
3.9 |
Ind |
| Gwoja |
1 760 |
898 |
|
|
2 806 |
62.72 |
32.00 |
|
|
52.80 |
5.3 |
ALP |
| Johnston |
2 850 |
1 434 |
|
|
4 434 |
64.28 |
32.34 |
|
|
79.80 |
3.4 |
ALP |
| Karama |
2 491 |
1 678 |
|
|
4 293 |
58.02 |
39.09 |
|
|
78.30 |
2.9 |
ALP |
| Katherine |
1 853 |
2 033 |
|
|
4 037 |
45.90 |
50.36 |
|
|
70.20 |
3.7 |
CLP |
| Mulka |
1 843 |
|
2 252 |
|
4 191 |
43.98 |
|
53.73 |
|
68.40 |
2.3 |
Ind |
| Namatjira |
1 792 |
1 814 |
|
|
3 786 |
47.33 |
47.91 |
|
|
66.10 |
4.8 |
CLP |
| Nelson |
|
2 658 |
1 903 |
|
4 707 |
|
56.47 |
40.43 |
|
85.50 |
3.1 |
CLP |
| Nightcliff |
3 286 |
1 139 |
|
|
4 515 |
72.78 |
25.23 |
|
|
80.30 |
2.0 |
ALP |
| Port Darwin |
2 241 |
2 060 |
|
|
4 413 |
50.78 |
46.68 |
|
|
77.40 |
2.5 |
ALP |
| Sanderson |
3 044 |
1 351 |
|
|
4 502 |
67.61 |
30.01 |
|
|
82.60 |
2.4 |
ALP |
| Spillett |
1 730 |
3 219 |
|
|
5 075 |
34.09 |
63.43 |
|
|
86.60 |
2.5 |
CLP |
| Wanguri |
3 349 |
1 627 |
|
|
5 117 |
65.45 |
31.80 |
|
|
83.70 |
2.8 |
ALP |
| Totals |
47 354 |
42 536 |
5 984 |
2 203 |
101 642 |
48.28 |
43.37 |
6.10 |
2.25 |
71.97 |
3.5 |
|
Source: NTEC
Appendix B: Post-election Cabinet
| Chief Minister |
|
| Hon Michael Patrick Francis Gunner MLA |
Treasurer |
| |
Minister for Major Projects and Territory Economic
Reconstruction |
| |
Minister for Strategic Defence Relations |
| Ministers |
|
| Hon Nicole Susan Manison MLA |
Deputy Chief Minister |
| |
Minister for Police, Fire and Emergency Services |
| |
Minister for Mining and Industry |
| |
Minister for Northern Australia and Trade |
| |
Minister for Defence Industries |
| |
Minister for Agribusiness and Aquaculture |
| |
Minister for International Education |
| Hon Natasha Kate Fyles MLA |
Minister for Health |
| |
Minister for Tourism and Hospitality |
| |
Minister for National Resilience |
| |
Minister for Major Events |
| |
Minister for Racing, Gaming and Licensing |
| |
Minister for Alcohol Policy |
| Hon Eva Dina Lawler MLA |
Minister for Renewables and Energy |
| |
Minister for Infrastructure, Planning and Logistics |
| |
Minister for Environment |
| |
Minister for Water Security |
| |
Minister for Climate Change |
| |
Minister for Essential Services |
| Hon Lauren Jane Moss MLA |
Minister for Education |
| |
Minister for Children |
| |
Minister for Youth |
| |
Minister for Seniors |
| |
Minister for Women |
| Hon Selena Jane Malijarri Uibo MLA |
Attorney-General and Minister for Justice |
| |
Minister for Treaty and Local Decision Making |
| |
Minister for Aboriginal Affairs |
| |
Minister for Parks and Rangers |
| Hon Paul Andrew Kirby MLA |
Minister for Small Business |
| |
Minister for Jobs and Training |
| |
Minister for Recreational Fishing |
| |
Minister for Veterans' Affairs |
| |
Minister for Public Employment |
| |
Minister for Corporate and Digital Development |
| Hon Kate Jane Worden MLA |
Minister for Territory Families and Urban Housing |
| |
Minister for Disabilities |
| |
Minister for Sport |
| |
Minister for Multicultural Affairs |
| Hon Chanston (Chansey) James Paech MLA |
Minister for Local Government |
| |
Minister for Central Australian Economic Reconstruction |
| |
Minister for Remote Housing and Town Camps |
| |
Minister for Indigenous Essential Services |
| |
Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage |
Note: The ministry was sworn in on 8 September 2020.
Source: NT
Government
Appendix C: Party Abbreviations
| AJP |
Animal Justice Party |
| ALP |
Australian Labor Party NT Branch |
| BFFCPW |
Ban Fracking Fix Crime Protect Water |
| CLP |
Country Liberal Party of the Northern Territory |
| FP |
Federation Party Northern Territory |
| GRN |
The Greens |
| Ind |
Independent |
| TA |
Territory Alliance |
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