29
July 2019
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Statistics and Mapping Section
Executive
summary
- The periodic redrawing of federal electoral boundaries is
required by law to maintain electoral divisions of roughly equal enrolment size
within a state or territory. Redrawing of boundaries is known as a
redistribution.
-
During the expected life of the 46th Parliament there could
be redistributions of Victoria, Western Australia and the Northern Territory
brought about by the representation entitlement trigger, which determines the
number of members of the House of Representatives a state or territory is
entitled to in relation to its population. If this happens, Victoria will gain
an electoral division while Western Australia and the Northern Territory will each
lose one.
- If all of those redistributions eventuate, there will be a return
to 150 divisions at the next election.
- No other redistributions are anticipated during the life of this
Parliament.
Note: This paper uses
projections based on the most recent Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Estimated
Resident Population. If the actual population growth revealed by the December 2019
figures (to be released in June 2020) differs significantly from these
projections, the results may change.
Contents
Executive summary
Introduction
Redistribution provisions
Representation entitlement
Expiration of seven years
Deferral of redistribution
Special cases—Northern Territory and
Australian Capital Territory
Conclusion
Introduction
Each state and territory is divided into federal
electoral divisions (or seats) for the House of Representatives. The number of
divisions is determined by population and requirements set out in the Australian
Constitution.[1]
The boundaries of these divisions have to be redrawn or redistributed from time
to time to allow for population movements to ensure equal representation
between divisions within each state and territory.
This paper looks at which states or territories may have
their electoral boundaries redistributed during the course of this
Parliament—the new boundaries and any change in the number of divisions then
applying at the next election. The actual redistribution process (or the redrawing
of boundaries) is not covered in this paper.[2]
Three redistributions are expected to occur prior to the
deemed expiration of this, the 46th, Parliament.[3]
This paper outlines the reasons why.
Redistribution
provisions
Section 59 of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918
(the Act) sets out the three provisions that trigger electoral redistributions.[4]
Briefly, these are:
- representation entitlement—a redistribution must be held if the
number of members of the House of Representatives to which a state or territory
is entitled changes
- malapportioned divisions—a redistribution must be held if the
number of electors in more than one third of the divisions in a state, or a
division in a territory, deviates from the average enrolment in that state or
territory by over ten per cent for a period of more than two months
(this has not been a trigger for a redistribution since the current provisions
were introduced in 1984 and is extremely unlikely to be a trigger during this
Parliament), and
- expiration of seven years—if neither of the above provisions
triggers a redistribution in a state or territory within seven years of the
previous redistribution, then a redistribution must be held in that state or
territory.
Representation
entitlement
Under section 46 of the Act, the Electoral Commissioner
ascertains the populations of the states and territories from the Australian
Statistician the day after the anniversary of the first meeting of a newly
elected House of Representatives, provided that the ‘House of Representatives
has continued for a period of 12 months’. Section 48 of the Act
specifies the manner in which representation entitlements are calculated from
these population numbers.[5]
The first meeting of the current House of Representatives
took place on 2 July 2019, so on 3 July 2020 the Electoral
Commissioner will obtain the latest population numbers published by the
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). According to the latest ABS publication
of demographic statistics, the population numbers that will be available at 3 July 2020
will relate to the end of December 2019.[6]
In order to estimate what these population numbers might be,
the Parliamentary Library has taken the most current population numbers
(December 2018) and projected these to December 2019, assuming that
the population growth over the previous 12 months (December 2017 to
December 2018) continues. The population projections and estimated
representation entitlements of the states and territories are shown in Table 1.
Table 1: estimated representation entitlements
| |
Population |
Calculated |
Entitlement |
Change |
|
projections |
number
of |
|
(b) |
|
Dec 2019 |
members
(a) |
|
|
| New South Wales |
8 171 818 |
47.238 |
47 |
|
| Victoria |
6 668 887 |
38.550 |
39 |
+1 |
| Queensland |
5 144 361 |
29.737 |
30 |
|
| South Australia |
1 757 452 |
10.159 |
10 |
|
| Western Australia |
2 630 521 |
15.206 |
15 |
-1 |
| Tasmania (c) |
538 108 |
3.111 |
5 |
|
| Total six states |
24 911 147 |
|
146 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Northern Territory |
244 848 |
1.415 |
|
|
| Cocos (Keeling) Islands |
547 |
0.003 |
|
|
| Christmas Island |
1 950 |
0.011 |
|
|
| Total NT (d) |
247 345 |
1.430 |
1 |
-1 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Australian Capital Territory |
431 523 |
2.494 |
|
|
| Jervis Bay |
410 |
0.002 |
|
|
| Norfolk Island |
1 771 |
0.010 |
|
|
| Total ACT (d) |
433 704 |
2.507 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Australia |
25 592 196 |
|
150 |
-1 |
Note: For representation entitlement purposes, Jervis
Bay and Norfolk Island are included with the Australian Capital Territory (ACT),
and the Northern Territory (NT) includes the Cocos (Keeling) Islands and
Christmas Island. Norfolk Island, the Cocos (Keeling) Islands or Christmas
Island will not be included if they are determined to be entitled to a member
of their own.
(a) Derived by dividing the population of a state or
territory by a population quota, that is, the population of the six states
divided by twice the number of senators for the six states (144) because section
24 of the Constitution requires there to be ‘as nearly as practicable’
twice as many members as senators. The population quota calculated here is 172 994.
(b) Change over current entitlement.
(c) Tasmania is one of the original (six) states at the
establishment of the Commonwealth of Australia. Section 24 of the Constitution
entitles each original state to at least five members.
(d) For the NT and the ACT, if
the remainder of their calculated number of members is 0.5 or less, then section 48
of the Act allows a new calculation to be determined after the addition of a
margin of error to their population estimate. If the resultant remainder of the
new calculated number of members is greater than 0.5, then an additional member
is determined for that territory. In the Table estimates, the margins of error do
not change the entitlement for the NT or the ACT, so they have not been shown.
These projections indicate that the current representation
entitlements could change in Victoria, Western Australia and the Northern
Territory, with Victoria gaining an electoral division and Western Australia
and the Northern Territory each losing one.
If Western Australia is reduced to 15 seats, it will lose
the seat it gained for the 2016 election and return to the number of seats
(albeit most likely not on the same boundaries) it has had since the 2001
election.
If the determination results in Victoria being entitled to
39 seats, it will return to the number it held more than 30 years ago for
the 1984 and 1987 elections.
If the determination is that the Northern Territory should
lose a seat, then the events and discussions of 2003—the last time the Northern
Territory was to lose a seat—may be revisited. On 19 February 2003
the Electoral Commissioner determined that the Northern Territory should lose
the second seat it gained for the first time in the 9 December 1999
determination. This, however, was overturned by Parliament with the insertion of
section 48A into the Act so that the Northern Territory retained its
second seat at least until the next determination by the Electoral
Commissioner. In 2003 the Northern Territory fell short of retaining its second
seat by 295 people; using the estimates from Table 1, the Northern
Territory’s population shortfall (with the inclusion of the margin of error) is
just over 4700.
Tasmania will retain its five seats, even though it would be
entitled to only three under the representation entitlement formula, because section 24 of the Constitution
guarantees that each of the original states is entitled to at least five
members.
Since no other states or territories are estimated to change
their entitlement, the size of the Parliament could return to 150 divisions.[7]
Expiration
of seven years
Section 59 of the Act sets out that a redistribution in
a state or territory must commence within 30 days of the expiration of
seven years after the most recent redistribution in that state or
territory (however, a redistribution can be deferred, see the following section
of this paper). Table 2 sets out the date of the most recent electoral
redistribution held in each state and territory and the date of the next
scheduled redistribution under this provision.
No redistributions are scheduled to occur during this
Parliament under this provision of the Act.
Table 2: electoral redistribution
dates due to expiration of seven years
| State/territory |
Most recent
redistribution |
Next
scheduled—expiration of 7 years |
| New South Wales |
25 February 2016 |
February/March
2023 |
| Victoria |
13 July 2018 |
July/August
2025 |
| Queensland |
27 March 2018 |
March/April
2025 |
| South Australia |
20 July 2018 |
July/August
2025 |
| Western Australia |
19 January 2016 |
January/February
2023 |
| Tasmania |
14 November 2017 |
November/December
2024 |
| Northern Territory |
7 February 2017 |
February/March
2024 |
| Australian Capital Territory |
13 July 2018 |
July/August
2025 |
Deferral of
redistribution
Under subsections 59(5) and (9A) of the Act, any
redistribution due to occur during the first 13 months of the new
Parliament will be deferred until after the representation entitlements determination
is made if the Electoral Commission is of the opinion that the determination
will or may alter the number of members.
This will not apply as no redistributions are due within the
first 13 months of this Parliament.
Most recently this provision of the Act caused the
previously deferred redistribution of the Australian Capital Territory, due to
have occurred in November/December 2013 (as triggered by the seven-year rule),
to be deferred until after the entitlements determination that was due in November/December
2014.[8]
This redistribution commenced on 1 December 2014, with the Australian
Capital Territory continuing with two members.
Under subsections 59(4) and (9) of the Act, any
redistribution scheduled within 12 months of the expiration of a House of
Representatives is deferred and commenced within 30 days after the first
meeting of the new House of Representatives.
This will not apply as no redistributions are due within the
deemed final 12 months of this Parliament.
Most recently this provision of the Act caused the
redistribution of Tasmania, due to have occurred in February/March 2016 (as
triggered by the seven-year rule), to be deferred until after the 2016
election. This redistribution commenced on 1 September 2016, two days
after the first sitting of the House of Representatives (on 30 August 2016).
Special
cases—Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory
The last and only time the Northern Territory was determined
by the Electoral Commissioner to lose a seat (and return to a single seat)
resulted in that determination being set aside—with an amendment being made to
the Act—and the introduction of the margin of error calculation in determining
the entitlements of the Northern Territory.[9]
Since the Northern Territory fell 295 people short of
retaining its second seat, the margin of error calculation was thought
necessary, as was the tightening of the date when the Electoral Commissioner
accessed population figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. If the
Electoral Commissioner had used the latest published population data (June
quarter 2002) rather than data supplied by the ABS (September quarter 2002),
the Northern Territory would have retained its second seat.[10]
A private member’s bill was introduced in June 2003 by David
Tollner, the Member for Solomon, which sought to guarantee a minimum of two
seats each for the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory.[11]
This was not supported, but resulting legislation passed by the Parliament saw
the introduction of the margin of error calculation when determining the
population estimates for both the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital
Territory.
Conclusion
The Parliamentary Library’s population projections suggest
that three redistributions—Victoria, Western Australia and the Northern
Territory—are expected to be triggered by the representation entitlement
determination 12 months after the first sitting of this Parliament. Based
upon these projections, the author expects Victoria to gain a division and both
Western Australia and the Northern Territory to lose a division.
The House of Representatives could go to the next election
with one fewer seats at 150 electoral divisions.
A timetable showing when the next redistribution in each
state and territory is expected to occur is shown in Table 3 below.
Table 3: timetable of predicted
upcoming electoral redistributions
| Next scheduled |
Parliament |
State/territory |
Most
recent |
| July/August 2020 (a) |
Current (46th) |
Western Australia |
19 January
2016 |
| July/August 2020 (b) |
Current (46th) |
Northern Territory |
7 February
2017 |
| July/August 2020 (c) |
Current (46th) |
Victoria |
13 July
2018 |
| February/March 2023 |
Future (47th) |
New South Wales |
25
February 2016 |
| November/December 2024 |
Future (48th) (d) |
Tasmania |
14
November 2017 |
| March/April 2025 |
Future (48th) (d) |
Queensland |
27 March
2018 |
| July/August 2025 |
Future (48th) |
Australian Capital Territory |
13 July
2018 |
| July/August 2025 |
Future (48th) |
South Australia |
20 July
2018 |
(a) If the Electoral Commissioner determines that
Western Australia's entitlement does not change, then its next scheduled
redistribution is due to commence in January/February 2023 (see Table 2).
(b) If the Electoral Commissioner or Parliament
determines that the Northern Territory's entitlement does not change, then its
next scheduled redistribution is due to commence in February/March 2024 (see
Table 2).
(c) If the Electoral Commissioner determines that
Victoria's entitlement does not change then its next scheduled redistribution
is due to commence in July/August 2025 (see Table 2).
(d) Scheduled to commence
within 12 months of the deemed expiration of the 47th Parliament, so
will be deferred until after the first sitting of the next House of
Representatives.
[1]. Australian
Constitution, section 24 in particular, accessed 20 June 2019.
[2]. For information
on the redistribution process, see: Australian Electoral Commission (AEC), ‘Redistributions’,
AEC website; D Muller, The
process of federal redistributions: a quick guide, Research paper
series, 2017–18, Parliamentary Library, Canberra, 2017. For the dates of all
previous redistributions, see: AEC, ‘Redistribution
dates since 1901’, AEC website. All references accessed 20
June 2019.
[3]. Until otherwise
determined, the expiration of the 46th Parliament is deemed to be 1 July 2022, the
end of three years after the first sitting of the House of Representatives on 2
July 2019.
[4]. Commonwealth
Electoral Act 1918, accessed 20 June 2019.
[5]. An initial
quota is ascertained by dividing the total population of the six states by
twice the number of senators from the six states. The calculated number of
members for each state and territory is then determined by dividing the
population of the state or territory by the initial quota. The calculated
number rounded to the nearest whole number determines the entitlement.
[6]. The December
2019 population figures are scheduled to be released on 18 June 2020: Australian
Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Australian
Demographic Statistics, December Quarter 2018, cat. no. 3101.0, ABS,
Canberra, 2019, p. 2, accessed 20 June 2019. There is a lag of six months
between the date to which the population estimates pertain and when they are
published.
[7]. Prior to the
2019 election, the House of Representatives had had 150 seats since the 2001
election.
[8]. The redistribution of the Australian Capital Territory
had already been deferred from starting in 2012 because it would have occurred
within 12 months of the expiry of the previous House of Representatives.
[9]. A more
comprehensive discussion of the events surrounding these decisions can be found
in R Bell and G Newman, Commonwealth
Electoral Amendment (Representation in the House of Representatives) Bill 2004,
Bills digest, 121, 2003–04, Parliamentary Library, Canberra, 2004, accessed 20
June 2019.
[10]. The Electoral
Commissioner was only required to access population data within one month
after the 12 month anniversary of the sitting of the House of
Representatives. The Electoral Commissioner is now required to access the
latest data ‘compiled and published in a regular series under the Census and
Statistics Act 1905’ by the Australian Statistician the day after the
first anniversary of the sitting of the House: Commonwealth
Electoral Act, section 46, accessed 20 June 2019.
[11]. This would
have given the territories a level of certainty not dissimilar from the
guarantee in the Constitution (section 24) that no original state
can have fewer than five members.
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