Peter Hicks, Economics Section and Guy Woods, Statistics and
Mapping Section
Introduction
One aspect of the current public discussion about sustainable
population is spatial distribution. Australia’s larger
capital cities are often said to be ‘full’ yet continue
to account for the vast bulk of population growth. Leaders of many
small rural and remote communities clamour for new residents. This
is in sharp contrast with some ‘boom’ regions which
have experienced such a population surge that local housing stock,
services and infrastructure are under extreme pressure.
Based on ABS data, this brief provides a snapshot of the current
dispersal of Australia’s population by state and recent state
level trends. It also highlights the diversity of population
developments in Australia over recent years focusing on those
regions experiencing the greatest levels and rates of population
change. This analysis shows there is not necessarily a correlation
between the amount by which a particular area’s population
changes and the rate at which that change occurs.
Growth and decline around the states
The major recent trends at the state/territory level are
summarised in Table 1. Features include:
- growth rates have varied considerably both geographically and
over time, and
- Queensland (Qld) has recorded the largest population increase
with well over half a million extra people while Western Australia
(WA) has experienced the fastest growth rate.
In addition, the concentration of Australia’s population
in the capital cities is currently projected to increase from 64
per cent in 2007 to 65 per cent in 2026 and then 68 per cent in
2056.
What’s happening where?
The national and state trends reported in Table 1 mask
considerable variation within state borders. Some insight into
local level trends is provided in Tables 2 and 3 which identify the
ten areas experiencing the largest population increases and
decreases respectively. Of the ten areas recording the largest
increases in population:
- five are in Victoria and four are in WA, and
- their average population in 2009 was 70 000.
Of the ten areas recording the largest declines in
population:
- five are in western New South Wales
- none had a population loss over the five year period of more
than 800, and
- at June 2009 their populations ranged between 3000 and
31 000.
Other data show that the ten most rapidly growing areas between
2004 and 2009 recorded average annual growth rates of between 85
and 17 per cent. However five of these are in the newer but
relatively small suburbs of the ACT and NT and none currently
exceed 5000 people. Four of the other ‘top ten’ fastest
expanding regions are in south-east Qld with rates between 27 and
17 per cent, and two already exceed 15 000 people.
For areas with at least 1000 people, the ten fastest dwindling
populations are all small communities. All except one had less than
2000 people in June 2009. Four of these were in inland WA north and
east of Perth and recorded average annual rates of population
decrease of between 3 and 2 per cent. Also in this group are Coober
Pedy and the surrounding Far North of South Australia where rates
of population decrease were about 2.5 per cent. Three regions in
central and southern Qld declined at just under 2 per cent
annually. Nationally, a further eight areas with between 500 and
1000 people experienced average annual rates of decline of 1.5 per
cent or more.
Table 1. Population growth by state and
territory |
|
Population (million) |
Population growth rates (%) |
2004
(million) |
2009 (million) |
Increase 2004 – 2009 (‘000) |
2005 |
2009 |
Average annual population growth
2004 – 2009 (%) |
Projected population 2026 (million) (a) |
(a) ABS series B presented in Population
Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2101, cat. no. 3222.0, ABS,
Canberra 2008 |
New South Wales |
6.73 |
7.19 |
462.62 |
0.86 |
1.64 |
1.34 |
8.40 |
Victoria |
5.01 |
5.50 |
482.44 |
1.43 |
2.13 |
1.85 |
6.50 |
Queensland |
3.95 |
4.47 |
526.97 |
2.48 |
2.44 |
2.54 |
6.04 |
South Australia |
1.55 |
1.63 |
88.33 |
0.90 |
1.32 |
1.11 |
1.88 |
Western Australia |
2.00 |
2.27 |
271.52 |
1.93 |
2.65 |
2.59 |
3.00 |
Tasmania |
0.48 |
0.51 |
20.74 |
0.80 |
0.89 |
0.85 |
0.55 |
Northern Territory |
0.20 |
0.23 |
23.93 |
2.27 |
2.21 |
2.25 |
0.29 |
Australian Capital Territory |
0.33 |
0.35 |
26.74 |
1.29 |
1.83 |
1.60 |
0.42 |
Australia |
20.25 |
22.16 |
1903.30 |
1.44 |
1.99 |
1.81 |
27.24 |
Table 2. Ten areas with largest population increase
2004–2009 |
|
Change 2004–2009 |
Statistical local area |
Estimated population June 2009 |
Number |
Average annual increase (%) |
|
Melton - East (Vic) |
53 349 |
21 016 |
10.5 |
Rockingham (WA) |
100 231 |
19 726 |
4.5 |
Ipswich - East (Qld) |
63 966 |
18 910 |
7.3 |
Wyndham - North (Vic) |
91 910 |
18 906 |
4.7 |
Whittlesea - North (Vic) |
38 412 |
18 807 |
14.4 |
Swan (WA) |
110 051 |
17 859 |
3.6 |
Wanneroo - North-West (WA) |
51 285 |
17 754 |
8.9 |
Casey - Cranbourne (Vic) |
78 526 |
17 731 |
5.3 |
Wanneroo - North-East (WA) |
43 406 |
17 073 |
10.5 |
Hume - Craigieburn (Vic) |
65 698 |
15 747 |
5.6 |
Table 3. Ten areas with largest population decline
2004–2009 |
|
Change 2004–2009 |
Statistical local area |
Estimated population June 2009 |
Number |
Average annual decrease (%) |
|
Moree Plains (NSW) |
14 406 |
-795 |
1.1 |
Bourke (NSW) |
3 070 |
-468 |
2.8 |
Kambah (ACT) |
15 883 |
-441 |
0.5 |
Onkaparinga - Morphett (SA) |
23 558 |
-440 |
0.4 |
Walgett (NSW) |
7 209 |
-402 |
1.1 |
Murrindindi - West (Vic) |
7 150 |
-395 |
1.1 |
Broken Hill (NSW) |
19 960 |
-372 |
0.4 |
Yarra Ranges - Dandenongs (Vic) |
30 698 |
-310 |
0.2 |
Lachlan (NSW) |
6 872 |
-307 |
0.9 |
Balonne (Qld) |
4 847 |
-292 |
1.2 |
Library publications and key documents
Australian Bureau of Statistics, 3218.0 -
Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2008-09, cat. no.
3218.0, ABS, Canberra, 2010,
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/3218.0Main+Features12008-09?OpenDocument
Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian
demographic statistics, December quarter 2009, cat. no.
3101.0, ABS, Canberra, 2010,
http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/subscriber.nsf/0/F61F4E6F3B1770A6CA25774B0016244B/$File/31010_dec%202009.pdf