18 May 2022
PDF version [255 KB]
Christopher Giuliano
Statistics and Mapping
Overview
This publication shows the House of Representatives seats
held by the Coalition (Liberal Party, National Party, Liberal National Party,
Country Liberal Party), the Australian Labor Party (ALP), and the crossbench in
order of margin from safest to most marginal. It incorporates redistributed
boundaries in Victoria and Western Australia.
All data in this report is based on the Australian Electoral
Commission (AEC) table ‘Historical two candidate preferred (TCP) votes by party
by division’.
Notes:
- Electorates with margins that had a notional change due to
redistributed boundaries are shown in bold.
-
The definitions of ‘marginal’ (less than 6%), ‘fairly safe’ (between
6% and 10%) and ‘safe’ (more than 10%) are a legacy of the 1972 book
‘Australian General Elections’ by Malcolm Mackerras.[1]
-
Mr Mackerras used the percentage the winning party received minus
50%, or ‘the swing required to lose’. This calculation is referred to by
political commentators as the ‘margin’, in contrast to a conventional dictionary
definition of ‘margin’ (difference, gap).
- Non-classic seats are where one or both of the final two
candidates was not from the Labor or Coalition parties.
Table 1: Liberal Party/Nationals Coalition—two candidate preferred margins
| Division |
State |
% |
Seat status |
| Maranoa* |
QLD |
22.49 |
Safe |
| Groom |
QLD |
20.48 |
Safe |
| Nicholls |
VIC |
20.03 |
Safe |
| Riverina |
NSW |
19.48 |
Safe |
| Cook |
NSW |
19.02 |
Safe |
| Barker |
SA |
18.94 |
Safe |
| Mitchell |
NSW |
18.63 |
Safe |
| Parkes |
NSW |
16.91 |
Safe |
| Gippsland |
VIC |
16.67 |
Safe |
| Bradfield |
NSW |
16.56 |
Safe |
| Mallee |
VIC |
15.68 |
Safe |
| Berowra |
NSW |
15.65 |
Safe |
| O'Connor |
WA |
15.42 |
Safe |
| Moncrieff |
QLD |
15.36 |
Safe |
| Lyne |
NSW |
15.17 |
Safe |
| Dawson |
QLD |
14.61 |
Safe |
| Wright |
QLD |
14.58 |
Safe |
| Forrest |
WA |
14.58 |
Safe |
| Hinkler |
QLD |
14.50 |
Safe |
| New England (NSW)* |
NSW |
14.36 |
Safe |
| Fadden |
QLD |
14.18 |
Safe |
| Curtin |
WA |
13.95 |
Safe |
| Durack |
WA |
13.49 |
Safe |
| Fairfax |
QLD |
13.44 |
Safe |
| Grey |
SA |
13.32 |
Safe |
| Calare |
NSW |
13.29 |
Safe |
| Mackellar |
NSW |
13.22 |
Safe |
| Wide Bay |
QLD |
13.15 |
Safe |
| Hume |
NSW |
12.99 |
Safe |
| Fisher |
QLD |
12.70 |
Safe |
| Capricornia |
QLD |
12.35 |
Safe |
| McPherson |
QLD |
12.20 |
Safe |
| Moore |
WA |
11.62 |
Safe |
| Canning |
WA |
11.56 |
Safe |
| Farrer* |
NSW |
10.94 |
Safe |
| Bowman |
QLD |
10.24 |
Safe |
| Wannon |
VIC |
10.17 |
Safe |
| Aston |
VIC |
10.13 |
Safe |
| Division |
State |
% |
Seat status |
| Hughes |
NSW |
9.85 |
Fairly Safe |
| Tangney |
WA |
9.50 |
Fairly Safe |
| Page |
NSW |
9.45 |
Fairly Safe |
| North Sydney |
NSW |
9.27 |
Fairly Safe |
| Flynn |
QLD |
8.66 |
Fairly Safe |
| Forde |
QLD |
8.60 |
Fairly Safe |
| Petrie |
QLD |
8.40 |
Fairly Safe |
| Herbert |
QLD |
8.36 |
Fairly Safe |
| Goldstein |
VIC |
7.79 |
Fairly Safe |
| Bonner |
QLD |
7.41 |
Fairly Safe |
| Menzies |
VIC |
7.02 |
Fairly Safe |
| Bennelong |
NSW |
6.91 |
Fairly Safe |
| Sturt |
SA |
6.87 |
Fairly Safe |
| Monash |
VIC |
6.86 |
Fairly Safe |
| Cowper* |
NSW |
6.79 |
Fairly Safe |
| Banks |
NSW |
6.26 |
Fairly Safe |
| Ryan |
QLD |
6.03 |
Fairly Safe |
| Hasluck |
WA |
5.89 |
Marginal |
| Flinders |
VIC |
5.64 |
Marginal |
| Kooyong* |
VIC |
5.42 |
Marginal |
| Pearce |
WA |
5.19 |
Marginal |
| La Trobe |
VIC |
5.13 |
Marginal |
| Lindsay |
NSW |
5.04 |
Marginal |
| Brisbane |
QLD |
4.92 |
Marginal |
| Deakin |
VIC |
4.69 |
Marginal |
| Dickson |
QLD |
4.64 |
Marginal |
| Casey |
VIC |
4.62 |
Marginal |
| Robertson |
NSW |
4.24 |
Marginal |
| Leichhardt |
QLD |
4.17 |
Marginal |
| Longman |
QLD |
3.28 |
Marginal |
| Swan |
WA |
3.22 |
Marginal |
| Reid |
NSW |
3.18 |
Marginal |
| Braddon |
TAS |
3.09 |
Marginal |
| Higgins |
VIC |
2.61 |
Marginal |
| Boothby |
SA |
1.38 |
Marginal |
| Wentworth* |
NSW |
1.31 |
Marginal |
| Chisholm |
VIC |
0.45 |
Marginal |
| Bass |
TAS |
0.41 |
Marginal |
* Indicates non-classic seats
Table 2: ALP—two candidate preferred margins
| Division |
State |
% |
Seat status |
| Scullin |
VIC |
21.66 |
Safe |
| Calwell |
VIC |
19.62 |
Safe |
| Sydney |
NSW |
18.67 |
Safe |
| Fraser |
VIC |
18.05 |
Safe |
| Canberra |
ACT |
17.08 |
Safe |
| Grayndler* |
NSW |
16.30 |
Safe |
| Cooper* |
VIC |
14.83 |
Safe |
| Blaxland |
NSW |
14.72 |
Safe |
| Gorton |
VIC |
14.26 |
Safe |
| Spence |
SA |
14.13 |
Safe |
| Fowler |
NSW |
13.99 |
Safe |
| Newcastle |
NSW |
13.83 |
Safe |
| Watson |
NSW |
13.52 |
Safe |
| Cunningham |
NSW |
13.41 |
Safe |
| Gellibrand |
VIC |
13.02 |
Safe |
| Lalor |
VIC |
12.46 |
Safe |
| Chifley |
NSW |
12.37 |
Safe |
| Franklin |
TAS |
12.21 |
Safe |
| Kingston |
SA |
11.94 |
Safe |
| Hotham |
VIC |
11.18 |
Safe |
| Whitlam |
NSW |
10.91 |
Safe |
| Fenner |
ACT |
10.56 |
Safe |
| Corio |
VIC |
10.32 |
Safe |
| Maribyrnong |
VIC |
10.31 |
Safe |
| Ballarat |
VIC |
10.23 |
Safe |
| Hawke |
VIC |
10.22 |
Safe |
| Makin |
SA |
9.72 |
Fairly Safe |
| Barton |
NSW |
9.41 |
Fairly Safe |
| Bendigo |
VIC |
8.85 |
Fairly Safe |
| Kingsford Smith |
NSW |
8.81 |
Fairly Safe |
| Holt |
VIC |
8.63 |
Fairly Safe |
| Wills* |
VIC |
8.47 |
Fairly Safe |
| Macarthur |
NSW |
8.40 |
Fairly Safe |
| Adelaide |
SA |
8.18 |
Fairly Safe |
| Bean |
ACT |
7.52 |
Fairly Safe |
| Bruce |
VIC |
7.28 |
Fairly Safe |
| Fremantle |
WA |
6.92 |
Fairly Safe |
| Division |
State |
% |
Seat status |
| Brand |
WA |
6.66 |
Fairly Safe |
| McMahon |
NSW |
6.64 |
Fairly Safe |
| Hindmarsh |
SA |
6.54 |
Fairly Safe |
| Isaacs |
VIC |
6.46 |
Fairly Safe |
| Rankin |
QLD |
6.44 |
Fairly Safe |
| Oxley |
QLD |
6.39 |
Fairly Safe |
| Jagajaga |
VIC |
5.89 |
Marginal |
| Burt |
WA |
5.50 |
Marginal |
| Werriwa |
NSW |
5.47 |
Marginal |
| Lingiari |
NT |
5.46 |
Marginal |
| McEwen |
VIC |
5.28 |
Marginal |
| Lyons |
TAS |
5.18 |
Marginal |
| Paterson |
NSW |
5.04 |
Marginal |
| Macnamara |
VIC |
4.91 |
Marginal |
| Shortland |
NSW |
4.45 |
Marginal |
| Richmond |
NSW |
4.08 |
Marginal |
| Parramatta |
NSW |
3.50 |
Marginal |
| Perth |
WA |
3.23 |
Marginal |
| Solomon |
NT |
3.08 |
Marginal |
| Hunter |
NSW |
2.98 |
Marginal |
| Griffith |
QLD |
2.86 |
Marginal |
| Greenway |
NSW |
2.80 |
Marginal |
| Dunkley |
VIC |
2.74 |
Marginal |
| Gilmore |
NSW |
2.61 |
Marginal |
| Moreton |
QLD |
1.90 |
Marginal |
| Dobell |
NSW |
1.50 |
Marginal |
| Blair |
QLD |
1.21 |
Marginal |
| Corangamite |
VIC |
1.05 |
Marginal |
| Cowan |
WA |
0.86 |
Marginal |
| Eden-Monaro |
NSW |
0.85 |
Marginal |
| Lilley |
QLD |
0.64 |
Marginal |
| Macquarie |
NSW |
0.19 |
Marginal |
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* Indicates non-classic seats
Table 3: other parties and independents—two candidate preferred margins
| Division |
State |
% |
Seat status |
Party |
| Melbourne |
VIC |
22.60 |
Safe |
GRN |
| Clark |
TAS |
22.12 |
Safe |
IND |
| Kennedy |
QLD |
13.33 |
Safe |
KAP |
| Warringah |
NSW |
7.24 |
Fairly Safe |
IND |
| Mayo |
SA |
5.14 |
Marginal |
CA |
| Indi |
VIC |
1.39 |
Marginal |
IND |
Table 4: ‘Non-classic’ seats—two candidate preferred margins
| Division |
State |
% |
Seat status |
Parties in
contest (winner first) |
| Melbourne |
VIC |
22.60 |
Safe |
GRN v LP |
| Maranoa |
QLD |
22.49 |
Safe |
LNP v PHON |
| Clark |
TAS |
22.12 |
Safe |
IND v ALP |
| Grayndler |
NSW |
16.30 |
Safe |
ALP v GRN |
| Cooper |
VIC |
14.65 |
Safe |
ALP v GRN |
| New England |
NSW |
14.36 |
Safe |
NP v IND |
| Kennedy |
QLD |
13.33 |
Safe |
KAP v LNP |
| Farrer |
NSW |
10.94 |
Safe |
LP v IND |
| Wills |
VIC |
8.47 |
Fairly Safe |
ALP v GRN |
| Warringah |
NSW |
7.24 |
Fairly Safe |
IND v LP |
| Cowper |
NSW |
6.79 |
Fairly Safe |
NP v IND |
| Kooyong |
VIC |
5.42 |
Marginal |
LP v GRN |
| Mayo |
SA |
5.14 |
Marginal |
CA v LP |
| Indi |
VIC |
1.39 |
Marginal |
IND v LP |
| Wentworth |
NSW |
1.31 |
Marginal |
LP v IND |
Party name and acronym
| ALP |
Australian Labor Party |
| CA |
Centre Alliance |
| GRN |
Greens |
| IND |
Independent |
| KAP |
Katter’s Australian Party |
| LNP |
Liberal National Party (Qld) |
| LP |
Liberal Party |
| NP |
Nationals |
| PHON |
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation |
[1] Six per cent was the swing needed by Labor to win La Trobe (Victoria) in 1972 and it was the strongest Liberal seat Labor hoped to win–and did win. Those thresholds for seat status have remained in general use since.
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