7
December 2018
PDF version [429KB]
Joanne
Simon-Davies
Statistics and Mapping Section
Introduction
Compared with 100 years ago, Australians today are older, have fewer
children, are more likely to live in urban areas, and are more likely to be
born overseas in countries other than the United Kingdom. Stimulated by the
gold rushes of the 19th century, Australia's population had reached nearly four
million by Federation in 1901. For the first part of the 20th century, natural
increase was the main contributor to population growth, as better living
conditions saw births outnumber deaths. Following the end of World War II in
1945, the total fertility rate grew and Australia actively embarked on an
immigration program to boost the population.
The rate of population growth has increased since the mid-2000s.
Overseas migration is now the main driver of this, making up about 64 per cent
of population growth (2017). By 2018, Australia's population had increased to 25
million people.[1]
This guide provides an overview of the drivers of Australia’s growing population
and an introduction to the key concepts and terminology used.
Counting the Australian population
There are two ways the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) determines
the size and characteristics of the population: the five-yearly Census of
Population and Housing (Census) and quarterly estimates of the resident
population. The Census can be counted by place of enumeration or by place of
usual residences:
- Census counts by place of
enumeration are a count of every person
in Australia on Census Night, based on where they were located on that night.
This may or may not be the place where they usually live. This count excludes
Australian residents who were out of the country on Census Night and overseas
diplomatic personnel and their families in Australia.
- Census counts by place of usual
residences are a count of people
based on the place where they usually live. This information is determined from
responses to the question of usual residence on the census form. Visitors to an
area are not included in the usual residence Census count.
- Estimated resident population (ERP) is the official estimate of the Australian
population and based on Census counts by place of usual residence, to which are
added the estimated Census net undercount (those
people missed on Census night[2])
and the number of Australian residents estimated to have been temporarily
overseas on Census night. Short term overseas visitors in Australia on Census
night are excluded in this calculation. Post-Census ERP is obtained by adding
to the estimated population at the beginning of each period the components of
population—natural increase and net overseas migration.
Components of population growth
As mentioned above, there are two components to estimating
population growth:
- Natural increase is the excess of births over deaths (measured by
fertility rates and life expectancy).
- Net overseas migration (NOM)[3] is the
difference between incoming migrants and outgoing migrants[4]. Net overseas
migrant arrivals are all arrivals who are in Australia for a total of 12 months
or more during a 16-month period. These people are added to the ERP. Net
overseas migrant departures are people counted in the ERP, and then removed
after they have been outside of Australia for 12 months or more during a
16-month period. Short-term tourists in Australia for less than 12 months are
not included in the count; however international students who are in Australia
studying for more than 12 months are included. Data provided by the Department
of Home Affairs (Home Affairs) is used by the ABS to calculate the official NOM
estimates each quarter.
According to the ABS:
The
official measure of the population of Australia is based on the concept of
usual residence. It refers to all people, regardless of nationality,
citizenship or legal status, who usually live in Australia, with the exception
of foreign diplomatic personnel and their families. It includes usual residents
who are overseas for less than 12 months over a 16-month period. It excludes
overseas visitors who are in Australia for less than 12 months over a 16-month
period.[5]
The relative contribution these two components make has changed
considerably over time, as can be seen in Figure 1. During 1976–1977, natural
increase represented 66.6 per cent of Australia’s population growth and NOM 33.4
per cent; by 2016–17 natural increase represented only 36.0 per cent of Australia’s
population growth with NOM at 64.0 per cent. Interestingly, the increase in NOM
in recent years has not been caused by an increase in permanent settlers.
Rather it has been driven by people staying in Australia on long-term temporary
visas, such as overseas students and temporary skilled migrants
(see Table 1 on page 5).
Figure 1 Components of change, 1976–77 to 2016–17

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Australian Historical Population Statistics, cat no. 3105.0.65.001 (Population size and growth) and
Australian Demographic Statistics, March 2018, cat no. 3101.0 (table 1)
It is important to note that whilst natural increase is largely outside
of government control, migration (NOM) can be influenced by a range of factors
including government policy (in particular migration policy), the state of the
Australian economy and labour market, and the existing patterns of settlement.
For further information on Australia’s estimated population: ABS Australian
Demographic Statistics, cat no. 3101.0.
Population growth in Australia
Since Federation, Australia’s population has varied from periods
of very high growth to periods of slow growth as can be seen in Figure 2.
During World War 1, there was negative population growth (-0.9 per cent in
1915–16) due to soldiers going overseas; emerging from World War 1, the
population grew rapidly (3.3 per cent in 1918–19) followed by a considerable
drop during the Great Depression of the 1930s (falling to 0.7 per cent in 1933–34).
Following World War II, annual growth reached 3.4 per cent in 1949–50 and
peaked at 4.5 per cent in 1971. During this period (early 1950s to early 1970s),
average annual growth was 2.2 per cent. After a relatively slow growth period during
the 1980s and 1990s, Australia’s population growth rate increased again in the mid-2000s
peaking in 2008–09 at 2.1 per cent. In 2016–17, the growth rate was 1.7
percent.
It is important to note that Australia’s population growth varies
widely across states and territories and sub-regions. In general, Australian
cities have grown strongly whilst growth in regional areas has been mixed. Over
the last decade, migration has contributed particularly strongly to population
growth in Sydney, Perth and Melbourne. Regional population growth is discussed
in more detail later in this Quick Guide.
Figure 2 Australia's population growth, 1901–02 to 2016–17

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Australian Historical Population Statistics, cat no. 3105.0.65.001 (Population size and growth) and
Australian Demographic Statistics, March 2018, cat no. 3101.0 (table 1)
Components of migration
A range of visa categories contribute to NOM, including temporary visas
(i.e. students and long- term visitors), permanent settlers plus Australians
returning home or leaving the country.
According to the ABS:
Home Affairs manages and grants visas each year and it is important
to note there is a difference between when Home Affairs issues a visa and when
and how they may impact on NOM and therefore Australia's estimated resident
population. For example, for many visas there can be a lag between a visa being
granted and the actual use of that visa by the applicant on entering Australia.
Also, some travellers who have been granted permanent or long-term temporary
visas may end up staying in Australia for a short period of stay or not at all.
In addition, travellers may also apply for and be granted a different visa
whilst in Australia or overseas. However, without an additional border crossing
within the reference quarter to capture a traveller's change of visa, the NOM
system is unable to show these occurrences.[6]
In short, the ABS cannot account for the transition between
visa categories after arrival such as a student moving from a temporary to
permanent visa.
Table 1 provides a breakdown of visa categories by NOM and clearly
shows temporary visa holders were the main contributors to NOM in both 2006–07
and in 2016–17 financial years (61.5 per cent and 70.7 per cent respectively).
Table 1 Net overseas migration (NOM) by visa category
(a), 2006–07 and 2016–17 (b)
Visa category |
2006-07 |
2016-17 |
no. |
% |
no. |
% |
Temporary visas |
143,090 |
61.5 |
185,450 |
70.7 |
Vocational Education
and Training sector |
16,600 |
7.1 |
4,530 |
1.7 |
Higher education
sector |
41,920 |
18.0 |
75,550 |
28.8 |
Student other |
19,730 |
8.5 |
23,920 |
9.1 |
Temporary work skilled
(subclass 457) |
26,470 |
11.4 |
16,630 |
6.3 |
Visitor |
25,850 |
11.1 |
53,710 |
20.5 |
Working Holiday |
16,980 |
7.3 |
24,190 |
9.2 |
Other temporary visas |
-4,450 |
-1.9 |
-13,060 |
-5.0 |
Permanent visas |
79,810 |
34.3 |
85,250 |
32.5 |
Family |
27,990 |
12.0 |
24,330 |
9.3 |
Skill |
40,400 |
17.4 |
37,780 |
14.4 |
Special Eligibility
and humanitarian |
12,310 |
5.3 |
23,760 |
9.1 |
Other permanent visas |
-890 |
-0.4 |
-610 |
-0.2 |
New Zealand Citizen
(subclass 444) |
28,950 |
12.4 |
5,990 |
2.3 |
Australian Citizen |
-17,160 |
-7.4 |
-14,250 |
-5.4 |
Other |
-1,880 |
-0.8 |
50 |
0.0 |
Total |
232,800 |
100.0 |
262,490 |
100.0 |
(a) Represents the number of visas based
on the visa type at the time of a traveller's specific movement. It is this
specific movement that has been used to calculate NOM. Therefore the number of
visas in this table should not be confused with information on the number of
visas granted by Home Affairs.
(b) Data for 2016-17 is preliminary
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Migration Australia 2016-17, cat no. 3412.0 (Table 2.3 and Table 2.13)
As noted previously, NOM refers to the number of persons
arriving in Australia minus the number leaving and in some instances can result
in a negative value. In Table 1, NOM for Australian citizens (2016–17) is minus
14,250 because there were fewer arrivals (78,890) compared to departures (93,140)
resulting in a negative NOM.
For further information on visa types and NOM: ABS,
Migration Australia, cat no. 3412.0
Country of birth of new arrivals
The composition of the Australian
population has changed considerably since Federation. In 1901, Australia had a
population of 3.8 million people, of whom 22.6 per cent were born overseas. Of
those born overseas (in the top ten countries of birth), the majority were from
the United Kingdom and Ireland (79.7 per cent) with only one country from
Asia—China, representing 3.5 per cent of the population.
By 2016, with a population of 23.4
million, 26.3 per cent were born overseas. While this is not a substantial
increase from 1901, the country profile for those born overseas has changed
significantly. China now represents 8.3 per cent of the overseas-born
population and is one of six Asian countries listed in the top ten countries of
birth. In contrast, the United Kingdom, whilst still number one on the list, now
represents only 17.7 per cent of overseas born.
Australia is now a nation of people from over 190 different
countries and 300 different ancestries.[7]
Table 2 Top 10 countries of birth, 1901, 1954, 2001 and
2016
Country |
Population |
Share (%) |
|
Country |
Population |
Share (%) |
1901 Census |
|
1954 Census |
1. United Kingdom (a) |
495 504 |
58.1 |
|
1. United Kingdom |
616 532 |
47.9 |
2. Ireland |
184 085 |
21.6 |
|
2. Italy |
119 897 |
9.3 |
3. Germany |
38 352 |
4.5 |
|
3. Germany |
65 422 |
5.1 |
4. China |
29 907 |
3.5 |
|
4. Poland |
56 594 |
4.4 |
5. New Zealand |
25 788 |
3.0 |
|
5. Netherlands |
52 035 |
4.0 |
6. Sweden/Norway |
9 863 |
1.2 |
|
6. Ireland |
47 673 |
3.7 |
7. South Sea Islands |
9 128 |
1.1 |
|
7. New Zealand |
43 350 |
3.4 |
8. British India |
7 637 |
0.9 |
|
8. Greece |
25 862 |
2.0 |
9. USA |
7 448 |
0.9 |
|
9. Yugoslavia |
22 856 |
1.8 |
10. Denmark |
6 281 |
0.7 |
|
10. Malta |
19 988 |
1.6 |
Top ten total |
810 113 |
95.5 |
|
Top ten total |
1 070 209 |
83.2 |
Other |
47 463 |
4.5 |
|
Other |
215 589 |
16.8 |
Total overseas born |
852 373 |
100 |
|
Total overseas born |
1 285 789 |
100.0 |
Total population |
3,788,123 |
|
|
Total population |
8 986 530 |
|
% of Australian born
overseas |
22.6 |
|
% of Australian born
overseas |
14.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Country |
Population |
Share (%) |
|
Country |
Population |
Share (%) |
2001 Census |
|
2016 Census |
1. United Kingdom |
1 036 242 |
25.5 |
|
1. United Kingdom |
1 087 756 |
17.7 |
2. New Zealand |
355 765 |
8.8 |
|
2. New Zealand |
518 462 |
8.4 |
3. Italy |
218 718 |
5.4 |
|
3. China |
509 558 |
8.3 |
4. Viet Nam |
154 830 |
3.8 |
|
4. India |
455 385 |
7.4 |
5. China |
142 781 |
3.5 |
|
5. Philippines |
232 391 |
3.8 |
6. Greece |
116 430 |
2.9 |
|
6. Viet Nam |
219 351 |
3.6 |
7. Germany |
108 219 |
2.7 |
|
7. Italy |
174 042 |
2.8 |
8. Philippines |
103 942 |
2.6 |
|
8. South Africa |
162 450 |
2.6 |
9. India |
95 455 |
2.3 |
|
9. Malaysia |
138 363 |
2.2 |
10. Netherlands Netherlands |
83 324 |
2.1 |
|
10. Sri Lanka |
109 850 |
1.8 |
Top ten total |
2 415 706 |
59.4 |
|
Top ten total |
3 607 608 |
58.7 |
Other |
1 648 248 |
40.6 |
|
Other |
2 542 443 |
41.3 |
Total overseas born |
4 063 954 |
100.0 |
|
Total overseas born |
6 150 051 |
100.0 |
Total population |
18 769 228 |
|
|
Total population |
23 401 891 |
|
% of Australian born
overseas
|
21.7 |
|
% of Australian born
overseas |
26.3
|
Source: Australian
Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Census of Population and Housing, 1901, 1954, 2001
and 2016
For all Census years since 1901: Top
10 countries of birth for the overseas-born population since 1901,
Parliamentary Library.
Geographic distribution
Over the past ten years (June 2007 to June 2017), all states
and territories have experienced population growth. Victoria had the largest
growth in absolute numbers (1,168,126 people), followed by New South Wales (1,027,518)
and Queensland (818,134). Tasmania had the smallest growth (28,890).
Table 3 Estimated resident population by States, Territories
and Greater Capital Cities, June 2007 to June 2017
States and territories |
2007 |
2017 |
2007-2017 ERP change |
no. |
% |
New South Wales |
6,834,156 |
7,861,674 |
1,027,518 |
15.0 |
Greater Sydney |
4,325,525 |
5,132,355
|
806,830
|
18.7 |
Victoria |
5,153,522 |
6,321,648 |
1,168,126 |
22.7 |
Greater Melbourne |
3,841,760 |
4,843,781
|
1,002,021
|
26.1 |
Queensland |
4,111,018 |
4,929,152 |
818,134 |
19.9 |
Greater Brisbane |
1,958,907 |
2,413,457
|
454,550
|
23.2 |
South Australia |
1,570,619 |
1,723,671 |
153,052 |
9.7 |
Greater Adelaide |
1,204,210
|
1,334,167
|
129,957
|
10.8 |
Western Australia |
2,106,139 |
2,575,452 |
469,313 |
22.3 |
Greater Perth |
1,628,467
|
2,039,041
|
410,574
|
25.2 |
Tasmania |
493,262 |
522,152 |
28,890 |
5.9 |
Greater Hobart |
206,649
|
229,088
|
22,439
|
10.9 |
Northern Territory |
213,748 |
247,491 |
33,743 |
15.8 |
Greater Darwin |
116,935
|
148,884
|
31,949
|
27.3 |
Aust. Capital Territory |
342,644 |
411,667 |
69,023 |
20.1 |
Total (including Other
Territories) |
20,827,622 |
24,597,528 |
3,769,906 |
18.1 |
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
(ABS), Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2016-17, cat no. 3218.0 (revised, August 2018)
Over the same period, Melbourne had the largest growth of
all Greater Capital Cities (1,002,021), followed by Sydney (806,830) and
Brisbane (454,550). Together, these three cities accounted for 60 per cent of total
population growth in Australia.
Components of population change:
regional comparison
Population change at the sub-state level can be considered
in terms of three main components: natural increase, net overseas migration and
net internal migration.
Greater Capital Cities
Although the number of people in all capital cities grew in
the year ended June 2017, the proportion each of these components contributed
to population change varied substantially among the cities, as can be seen in
Figure 3 on page 8.
Melbourne experienced the largest population growth of all
capital cities in 2016–17, increasing by 129,500 people. Net overseas migration
was the major contributor, accounting for 64.1 per cent (or 83,000 people); however
Sydney’s NOM contribution was higher than Melbourne’s (83.9 per cent or
90,200). This compares with 60.4 per cent of growth in Perth (11,900) and 40.6
per cent in Brisbane (20,600).
Figure 3 Components of population change: Greater Capital
City comparison, 2016–17

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
(ABS), Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2016-17, cat no. 3218.0 (revised, August 2018)
Rest of state
Just as there is variation in components of population in
Greater Capital Cities (Figure 3), this variation is also evident in ‘Rest of
State’ (Figure 4). Rest of Queensland experienced the largest population
growth, increasing by 33,215 in 2016–17. Net overseas migration was the major
contributor, accounting for 43.8 per cent (or 14,561 people), followed closely
by natural increase accounting for 39.3 per cent of growth (13,046 persons). Interestingly,
Rest of Queensland represented almost half of all natural increase for
non-capital city areas in Australia. This may be explained by the fact that
Queensland is more decentralised than other states and territories.
Net overseas migration was the major contributor in Rest of
New South Wales (14,324 people), a similar number to Queensland (14,561
people), however it accounted for 67.0 per cent of growth in Rest New South
Wales (compared to only 43.8 per cent). In Rest of Victoria, NOM accounted for
37.1 per cent of growth (7,074 people), and 56.6 per cent in Rest of Tasmania
(828 people).
In Rest of Western Australia, population gains from natural
increase (3,698) and NOM were negated by net internal migration losses of
-5,466 persons. Likewise, in Rest of South Australia, whilst there were
increases in NOM (960 people) and natural increase (431 people), there was a
loss of 973 by net internal migration.
Figure 4 Components of population change: Rest of state
comparison, 2016–17

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
(ABS), Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2016-17, cat no. 3218.0 (revised, August 2018)
For further information on regional population estimates Regional
Population Growth, Australia, cat no. 3218.0
Population projections
In November 2018 the ABS released new population projections
for the period June 2018 to June 2066. These projections have been updated to
reflect the 2016 Census-based population estimates. The ABS stress that these ’projections are not intended to be
predictions or forecasts, but are illustrations of growth and change in the
population that would occur if assumptions made about future demographic trends
were to prevail over the projection period’.[8]
The ABS uses the cohort-component method for producing
population projections. In this method, assumptions made about future levels of
fertility, mortality, overseas migration and internal migration are applied to
a base population (applied by sex and single year of age) to obtain a projected
population for the following year. The assumptions applied, such as overseas
migration and fertility, do not specifically attempt to allow for
non-demographic factors (such as major government policy decisions, economic
factors, catastrophes, wars, epidemics or significant health treatment
improvements) which may affect future demographic behaviour or outcomes. [9]
As future levels of fertility, mortality, overseas migration
and internal migration are unpredictable, two or more assumptions have been
made for each component and projections have been produced for all combinations
of the assumptions. These are intended to illustrate a range of possible future
outcomes, although there can be no certainty that any particular outcome will
be realised, or that future outcomes will necessarily fall within these ranges.
These assumptions can be combined to create 54 sets of
population projections. Three series have been selected from these to provide a
range of projections for analysis and discussion. These series are referred to
as series A, B and C. Series B largely reflects current trends in fertility,
life expectancy at birth and migration, whereas series A and series C are based
on higher and lower assumptions respectively for each of these variables.
This variation in assumptions can be seen in the graph
below. Based on current trends, Australia's population is projected to reach 30
million people between 2029 and 2033.
Under all assumptions, the population of New South Wales is
projected to remain as the largest state with a population of between
approximately 9.0 and 9.3 million by 2027. Victoria is projected to experience
the largest and fastest increase in population; possibly reaching between 7.5
and 7.9 million by 2027.[10]
Figure 5 Population projection: Series A, B and C, 2018
to 2066

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066, cat no. 3218.0
For further information: ABS, Population
Projections, 2017-2066, cat no. 3222.0
Glossary
Terms used in this Quick Guide and other reports on this
topic, based on:
(a) Australian Bureau of
Statistics (ABS), Australian Demographic Statistics, March 2018, cat no. 3101.0
(b) Australian Bureau of
Statistics (ABS), Migration, Australia, 2016-17, cat no. 3412.0
(c) Australian Bureau of
Statistics (ABS), Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2016-17, cat no. 3218.0
(d) Australian Bureau of
Statistics (ABS), Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) – 2066, cat no. 3222.0
12/16 month
rule (a) |
Under a
'12/16 month rule', incoming overseas travellers (who are not currently
counted in the population) must be resident in Australia for a total period
of 12 months or more, during the 16 month follow-up period to then be added
to the estimated resident population. Similarly, those travellers departing
Australia (who are currently counted in the population) must
be absent from Australia for a total of 12 months or more during the 16 month
follow-up period to then be subtracted from the estimated resident
population.
The 12/16 months do not have to be
continuous. The rule takes account of those persons who may have
left Australia briefly and returned, while still being resident for 12 months
out of 16. Similarly, it takes account of Australians who live most of the
time overseas but periodically return to Australia for short periods.
|
Census (a) |
The complete
enumeration of a population at a point in time with respect to well-defined
characteristics (e.g. Persons, Industry, etc.).
|
Estimated
resident population (ERP) (a) |
The official
measure of the population of Australia is based on the concept of usual
residence. It refers to all people, regardless of nationality, citizenship or
legal status, who usually live in Australia, with the exception of foreign
diplomatic personnel and their families. It includes usual residents who are
overseas for less than 12 months over a 16-month period. It excludes overseas
visitors who are in Australia for less than 12 months over a 16-month period.
Estimates of the Australian resident
population are generated on a quarterly basis by adding natural increase (the
excess of births over deaths) and net overseas migration (NOM) occurring
during the period to the population at the beginning of each period.
|
Migrant—International
(b) |
An
international migrant is defined as ’any person who changes his or
her country of usual residence’ (United Nations 1998). The country
of usual residence is the country in which a person lives, that is to say,
the country in which he or she has a place to live where he or she normally
spends the daily period of rest. A long-term international migrant is a
person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence
for a period of at least a year (12 months), so that the country of
destination effectively becomes his or her new country of usual residence.
In Australia, for the purposes of estimating
net overseas migration, and thereby the official population counts, a person
is regarded as a usual resident if they have been (or expected to be)
residing in Australia for a period of 12 months or more over a 16 month
period.
|
Natural Increase (a) |
Excess of births over deaths.
|
Net internal migration (c) |
Net internal migration is the net gain or loss of
population through the movement of people within Australia from one region to
another (both interstate and intrastate)
|
Net interstate
migration (a) |
The
difference between the number of persons who have changed their place of
usual residence by moving into a given state or territory and the number who
have changed their place of usual residence by moving out of that state or territory
during a specified time period. This difference can be either positive or
negative.
|
Net overseas
migration (NOM) (a) |
Net overseas migration is the net gain or
loss of population through immigration to Australia and emigration from
Australia. Under the current method for estimating final net overseas
migration this term is based on a traveller's actual duration
of stay or absence using the '12/16 month rule'. Preliminary NOM estimates
are modelled on patterns of traveller behaviours observed in final NOM
estimates for the same period one year earlier. NOM is:
- based on an
international traveller's duration of stay being in or out of Australia for
12 months or more over a 16-month period
- the difference
between:
- the number of incoming international travellers
who stay in Australia for 12 months or more over a 16-month period, who are
not currently counted within the population, and are then added to the
population (NOM arrivals) and
-
the number of
outgoing international travellers (Australian residents and long-term
visitors to Australia) who leave Australia for 12 months or more over a
16-month period, who are currently counted within the
population, and are then subtracted from the population (NOM departures).
|
NOM arrivals
(a) |
NOM arrivals
are all overseas arrivals that contribute to net overseas migration (NOM). It
is the number of incoming international travellers who stay in Australia for
12 months or more over a 16-month period, who are not currently
counted within the population, and are then added to the population.
Under the current method for estimating
final net overseas migration this term is based on a traveller's
actual duration of stay or absence using the '12/16 month rule'.
|
NOM departures
(a) |
NOM departures
are all overseas departures that contribute to net overseas migration (NOM).
It is the number of outgoing international travellers who leave Australia for
12 months or more over a 16-month period, who are currently
counted within the population, and are then subtracted from the population.
Under the current method for estimating final
net overseas migration this term is based on a traveller's
actual duration of stay or absence using the '12/16 month rule'.
|
Net
undercount (a) |
The
difference between the actual Census count (including imputations) and an
estimate of the number of people who should have been counted in the Census.
This estimate is based on the Post Enumeration Survey (PES) conducted after
each Census. For a category of person (e.g. based on age, sex and state of
usual residence), net undercount is the result of Census undercount,
overcount, differences in classification between the PES and Census and
imputation error.
|
Passenger card
(b) |
Passenger cards
are completed by nearly all passengers arriving in Australia. Information
including: country of previous residence, intended length of stay, main
reason for journey, and state or territory of intended stay/residence is
collected.
|
Permanent
arrivals (settlers) (b) |
Permanent arrivals (settlers)
comprise:
-
travellers who hold
permanent migrant visas (regardless of stated intended period of stay)
- New Zealand citizens
who indicate an intention to migrate permanently on their passenger arrival
card and
-
those who are
otherwise eligible to settle (e.g. overseas born children of Australian
citizens).
This definition of settlers is
used by the Department of Home Affairs (Home Affairs).
|
Permanent visa
(b) |
A visa allowing
the holder to remain indefinitely in Australia's migration zone.
|
Population
growth (a) |
For
Australia, population growth is the sum of natural increase and net overseas
migration. For states and territories, population growth also includes net
interstate migration.
|
Population
growth rate (a) |
Population
change over a period as a proportion (percentage) of the population at the
beginning of the period.
|
Population
projections (d) |
The ABS uses
the cohort-component method for producing population projections of
Australia, the states, territories, capital cities and balances of state.
This method begins with a base population for each sex by single year of age
and advances it year by year, for each year in the projection period, by
applying assumptions regarding future fertility, mortality and migration. The
assumptions are based on demographic trends over the past decade and longer,
both in Australia and internationally. The projections are not predictions or
forecasts, but are simply illustrations of the change in population which
would occur if the assumptions were to prevail over the projection period. A
number of projections are produced by the ABS to show a range of possible
future outcomes.
|
Rebasing of
population estimates (a) |
After each
Census, the ABS uses Census counts by place of usual residence which are
adjusted for undercount to construct a new base population figure for 30 June
of the Census year. Because this new population estimate uses the Census as
its main data source, it is said to be 'based' on that Census and is referred
to as a population base.
|
Temporary
visas (b) |
Temporary
entrant visas are visas permitting persons to come to Australia on a
temporary basis for specific purposes. Main contributors are tourists,
international students, those on temporary work visas, business visitors and
working holiday makers.
|
Total fertility
rate (TFR) (a) |
The sum of
age-specific fertility rates (live births at each age of mother per female
population of that age) divided by 1,000. It represents the number of
children a female would bear during her lifetime if she experienced current
age-specific fertility rates at each age of her reproductive life (ages 15 -
49).
|
[1].
Australian Bureau of Statistics
(ABS), Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2014, cat no. 3105.0.65.001
[2]. Includes
those who did not complete a Census form.
[3]. In 2006,
the ABS change the definition of NOM, introducing the 12/16 month rule for
calculating NOM. Consequently, this year marks a break
in the series and NOM estimates from earlier periods are not comparable.
[4]. The input
data for calculating NOM is mainly sourced from administrative data provided by
the Department of Home Affairs. Administrative information on persons arriving
in, or departing from, Australia is collected from various sources including
passport documents, visa information, and passenger cards. ABS, Information
Paper: Improvements to the Estimation of Net Overseas Migration, Mar 2018,
cat no. 3412.0.55.004
[5]. ABS, ‘Glossary’, Australian
Demographic Statistics, Mar 2018, cat. no. 3101.0, ABS, Canberra
[6]. Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Migration Australia 2016-17, cat no. 3412.0, Net Overseas Migration
[7].
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS),2016
Census of Population and Housing, Cultural diversity in Australia, 2016 Census article
[8]. Australian Bureau of Statistics
(ABS), Population projections, 2017 (base) – 2066, cat not 3222.0
[9]. Ibid
[10].
Australian Bureau of Statistics
(ABS), Australia's population to reach 30 million in 11 to 15
years, media release, 22 November 2018
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