Current Issues
The Kyoto Protocol
Issues and Developments through to Conference of the Parties
(COP7)
E-Brief: Online Only issued 13 September 2002
Mike Roarty,
Analysis and Policy
Science, Technology, Environment & Resources Group
The Kyoto commitment and meetings
since Kyoto
Australia made an international commitment in December 1997 at
Kyoto (Conference of the Parties COP3) to limit its greenhouse gas
emissions growth to 108 per cent of its 1990 baseline, which
equates to nearly a 30 per cent reduction from its 'business as
usual' projections. Australia was one of three countries the other
two being Norway and Iceland granted an increase of its emission
levels on its 1990 base; an argument won on the concept of
'differentiated targets' based on a country's particular economic
circumstance. In contrast, this compares to developed countries
collectively agreeing to reduce their aggregate emissions of
greenhouse gases by at least 5 per cent from 1990 levels in the
first commitment period 2008 2012.
The European Union (EU) has a
differentiated internal burden sharing arrangement for the purposes
of meeting its commitments. Under this burden sharing arrangement,
Portugal and Greece, for example can increase emissions by 27 per
cent and 25 per cent respectively, while Germany and Denmark have
each agreed to reduce emissions by 21 per cent. This internal
burden sharing or 'bubble' arrangement allows the European Union,
unlike individual countries such as the United States and
Australia, considerable flexibility in attaining its Kyoto
commitment.
Since Kyoto, Australia has participated in COP4 (Buenos Aires),
COP5 (Bonn), COP6 (The Hague), COP6 Part 2 (Bonn) and COP7,
(Marrakesh). The progress of the Protocol could best be described
as lengthy, arduous, and complex. A decided negative for the
Protocol has been the withdrawal of the United States in March
2001, during the intervening period between COP6 and the reconvened
COP 6 Part 2. A Statement by President George W Bush indicated that
the United States would not ratify the Protocol as he believed the
agreement to be 'fundamentally flawed'. The United States is
responsible for around 25 per cent of the world's greenhouse gas
emissions.
With the United States declaring its intention not to ratify, it
remains imperative that four of the major players including the
European Union, Russia, Japan and Canada ratify the Protocol for it
to come into effect. The European Union and Japan ratified the
Treaty in late May and early June 2002. At the conclusion of the
World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg in early
September 2002, Russia and Canada declared their intention to
ratify and provide the necessary threshold levels for the Protocol
to enter into force, possibly towards the end of 2002. Article 25
of the Protocol requires ratification of 55 parties representing 55
per cent of developed country emissions in 1990 for the Protocol to
enter into force as an international agreement.
The talks in The Hague (COP6) floundered, because of
disagreement between the European Union and the US relating to the
role of the so called 'flexibility mechanisms'. Members of a
loosely aligned Umbrella Group including Australia, Canada, Japan,
New Zealand, Russia, Iceland, Norway, and Ukraine supported the US
position. However, following the withdrawal of the US, broad
agreement was reached on outstanding issues between the remaining
Parties at COP7 enabling the Protocol to move towards possible
ratification in late 2002 or early 2003. Senator Hill, the
Australian Government Environment Minister at that time did not
attend COP7, as this period was in the lead up to the November 2001
Federal election. Outcomes from COP7 follow (see Outcomes).
Whilst Australia has not agreed to ratify Kyoto it has put in
place a broad range of measures representing almost $1 billion
worth of investment, to ensure that the commitment made at Kyoto
can be met (for details see
Australian Greenhouse Office).
In November 1997, the Prime Minister released a policy
statement, Safeguarding the Future: Australia's Response to
Climate Change (for details see Safeguarding
the Future ). The statement included a package of measures, to
which the Prime Minister committed Australia, regardless of the
outcome of negotiations at the third Conference of the Parties
(COP3), to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC).
The measures in that package have now been largely implemented.
These include the establishment of the Australian Greenhouse Office
(AGO), the world's first dedicated greenhouse office, which came
into being in April 1998. Included in the policy statement were
references to activities relating to renewable energy, energy
market reform, the automotive industry incorporating fuel
standards, tree planting and revegetation. It also led to the
establishment of the greenhouse challenge program (a voluntary
cooperative program between industry and government) to undertake
to either reduce or abate greenhouse gas emissions. This challenge
program has seen companies and associations commit to cutting 20
million tonnes of projected greenhouse gas emissions.[1]
The AGO is responsible for the delivery of most of the measures
in the 1997 package. These measures are projected to contain
Australia's emissions within a range of 118 120 per cent of the
1990 baseline. This leaves a gap of 10 12 per cent to be made up
through a contribution of reduced land clearing to the baseline,
new measures at State or Commonwealth level, and the use of the
flexibility mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol.[2] The most recent projections (see
section titled Australia's greenhouse gas emissions projections)
have Australia's emissions at 111 per cent of the 1990 baseline
over the 2008 2012 first assessment period (for details see
Australia's
greenhouse gas emissions).
Australia's response to
the Kyoto Protocol
The Australian Government released its National Greenhouse
Response Strategy in November 1998 providing the framework for
advancing Australia's domestic greenhouse response into the next
century. The Strategy is a product of involvement between the
Commonwealth, State and Territory Governments. It has also
benefited from the input of industry, non-government organisations
and local government. The Strategy is earmarked for review in
2002.
The above document sets out abatement strategies for all of the
key sectors that both produce and sequester greenhouse gases,
including energy, transport, greenhouse sinks and sustainable land
management practices, greenhouse best practice in industrial
processes and waste management and adaptation to climate
change.
While Australia is only a relatively small greenhouse gas
emitter comprising around 1.4 per cent of total world emissions, it
registers as a relatively high emitter based on a per capita basis.
International Energy Agency data at the end of 1999 indicated
energy related emissions in the United States and the Europe (the
world's two largest emitters) amounted to 5 585 million tonnes
(Mt) and 3 534Mt compared to Australia at 322Mt. However, on a
per capita basis, Australia emits 16.95 tonnes, 3rd
highest behind the United States at 20.46 tonnes and Luxembourg at
17.19 tonnes.
Whilst a number of commentators give high priority to
comparative per capita emissions, it is the absolute level of
emissions that impact on global climate change. It is self evident
that a larger percentage reduction in Australia's emission levels
of 5 per cent amounting to around 26 Mt on 1999 emissions could
easily be counteracted by a very small percentage increase in
emissions elsewhere in the world. China is the largest emitter
among developing countries, and its share of global emissions
growth is projected to increase from 12 per cent in 1990 to 20 per
cent in 2010.[3]
Whilst data on greenhouse gas emissions for Annex 1 Countries is
available (see Greenhouse gas
emissions ) world data is harder to access. The International
Energy Agency[4]
publishes data for carbon dioxide emissions produced from fuel
combustion for non OECD countries and in the latest 2001 edition
have included methane and nitrous oxide emissions from a number of
other sectors for some countries.
Australia's greenhouse
gas emissions
Australia's greenhouse gas emissions on a sectorial basis for
the years 1990 to 2000 are shown in Table 1. Emerging trends over
this period are discussed below.
Sector |
1990
|
1991
|
1992
|
1993
|
1994
|
1995
|
1996
|
1997
|
1998
|
1999
|
2000
|
Mt CO2 -e
|
Mt CO2 -e
|
|
Mt CO2 -e
|
Mt CO2 -e
|
Mt CO2 e
|
Mt CO2 -e
|
Mt CO2 -e
|
Mt CO2 -e
|
Mt CO2 -e
|
Mt CO2 -e
|
Mt CO2 -e
|
Mt CO2 -e
|
Mt CO2 -e
|
Change 1990-00
|
% Change 1990-00
|
1. All Energy |
298.7
|
300.5
|
304.5
|
307.1
|
312.1
|
324.4
|
334.2
|
342.5
|
360.5
|
363.6
|
371.8
|
73.1
|
24.5
|
Stationary energy |
208.5
|
211.5
|
212.6
|
215.0
|
218.9
|
226.3
|
234.2
|
240.4
|
258.7
|
259.8
|
264.0
|
55.5
|
26.6
|
Transport |
61.5
|
61.0
|
62.8
|
63.8
|
65.6
|
68.4
|
70.6
|
72.4
|
72.6
|
73.9
|
76.3
|
14.8
|
24.1
|
Fugitive |
28.8
|
28.0
|
29.1
|
28.3
|
27.6
|
29.6
|
29.4
|
29.2
|
31.2
|
30.1
|
31.5
|
2.7
|
9.4
|
2. Industrial processes |
12.0
|
11.7
|
11.5
|
10.8
|
10.7
|
9.7
|
9.8
|
9.7
|
10.9
|
10.4
|
10.3
|
-1.7
|
-14.3
|
3. Solvent & other product
use |
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
4.
Agriculture |
91.3
|
91.6
|
90.2
|
90.0
|
89.2
|
89.3
|
89.3
|
91.4
|
92.4
|
95.2
|
98.4
|
7.1
|
7.8
|
5. Land-Use Change and
Forestry |
85.9
|
58.4
|
38.0
|
43.8
|
46.5
|
40.8
|
37.8
|
39.5
|
39.9
|
38.2
|
38.0
|
-47.9
|
-55.8
|
6. Waste |
15.3
|
15.6
|
15.8
|
16.1
|
16.1
|
15.8
|
15.9
|
16.1
|
16.0
|
16.4
|
16.7
|
1.4
|
9.2
|
Total |
503.3
|
477.8
|
460.1
|
467.3
|
474.5
|
479.9
|
487.1
|
499.3
|
519.6
|
524.0
|
535.3
|
32.0
|
6.3
|
Source: Australian Greenhouse Office. Mt CO2 -e is
million tonne (Mt) of carbon dioxide equivalent. Note: Tabulation
based on UNFCCC Inventory accounting provisions as distinct from
108% target Inventory accounting provisions. Numbers may not add
due to rounding.
The data in Table 1 show the dominance of energy production and
use as a source of greenhouse gas emissions in Australia. In 2000,
the All Energy category accounted for 69.5 per cent of total
national emissions, with stationary sources (including power
stations) accounting for 49.3 per cent of national emissions;
transport 14.3 per cent; fugitive emissions 5.9 per cent and Land
Use Change and Forestry 7.1 per cent.
Total emissions have increased by 32.0Mt from 1990 to 2000, an
increase of 6.3 per cent. The major part of the increase has
occurred in the All Energy sector with an increase of 73.1Mt over
the ten-year period, a 24.5 per cent increase. However, emissions
from Industrial processes have declined over the ten-year period,
largely attributable to changes in the processes used in the
aluminium industry. Emissions from the Agriculture sector have
increased by 7.1Mt or 7.8 per cent over the ten-year period. Whilst
emissions from the Forestry and Other are negative (acting as
greenhouse sinks), net emissions from the broader Land Use Change
and Forestry sector are positive and amounted to 38Mt in 2000.
However, this was a 55.8 per cent decline from the net emissions of
85.9Mt in 1990. The 2000 National Greenhouse Gas Inventory was the
first time complete comparative figures for this sector have been
reported. Previously only the sink offsets of the Forestry and
Other sub sector were reported. The previous reporting effectively
indicated that Australia's greenhouse gas emissions growth was much
higher than is now the case.
Australia's greenhouse gas emissions have increased by 32Mt over
the period 1990 to 2000 or 6.3 per cent, which is below the 8 per
cent increase on the 1990 base as agreed under the Kyoto Protocol.
However, Table 1 presents emissions according to United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Inventory
accounting provisions, which differ from the Kyoto Target Inventory
accounting provisions. According to the 108 per cent target
Inventory accounting provisions, Australia's net greenhouse gas
emissions totalled 553.0Mt of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2000, a
5 per cent increase (28.4Mt) over the period 1990 to 2000. The key
differences in the accounting rules for the two sets of accounting
provisions target relate to forest sinks.[5]
Figures in Table 1 indicate the
energy sector is one of continuing growth in emissions and an
increasing share of Australia's total greenhouse emissions.
According to the Australian Greenhouse Office (AGO), emissions in
the Energy Sector are expected to grow by over 39 per cent (119 Mt
CO2 -e) between 1990 and 2010. These assumptions reflect
continuing growth in GDP, in minerals processing, and in transport
and incorporate the main measures expected to reduce emissions -
micro-economic reform in the Energy sector, expansion of the
Greenhouse Challenge Program and other measures included in the
Prime Minister's Greenhouse package 1997.
Australia's
greenhouse gas emissions projections
According to the UNFCCC accounting
practices, emissions across all sectors in Australia are projected
to reach 580Mt CO2 -e, a 16 per cent increase over 1990
levels in 2010. The projection of emissions includes the
performance of greenhouse gas abatement measures which are
projected to deliver in aggregate, a reduction of 59Mt
CO2 -e in 2010.
However, assessment of Australia's
projections according to Kyoto target rules shows that over the
period 2008 2012 emissions would be 111 per cent of 1990 levels on
average. The period 2008 2012 is used because this is the target
interval applicable to Kyoto targets.
The AGO[6] has outlined a number of significant
projection trends including:
- The Energy sector (comprising stationary energy, transport and
fugitive) continues to be the most significant source of greenhouse
gas emissions (approximately 72 per cent of total emissions in
2010).
- Agriculture emissions are not projected to grow significantly
and will contribute approximately 16 per cent of emissions in
2010.
- Industrial process emissions are projected to grow rapidly, but
from a small base. They are projected to contribute 4 per cent of
projected emissions in 2010.
- The contribution of the Waste sector shrinks slightly as
emissions are maintained at 1990 levels.
- The Forestry and Other sub-sectors are expected to sequester
approximately 4 per cent of total emissions in 2010.
- Land Use Change emissions are projected to fall to
approximately 10 per cent of total net emissions in 2010 from 21
per cent in 1990.
In June 1999, as part of A New Tax Package, the
government introduced a series of Measures for a Better
Environment (for details see Measures
for a better environment). These included new programs to
support photovoltaic and other forms of renewable energy, and the
use of alternative fuels. A major program, which began on 1 July
2000, is the Greenhouse Gas Abatement Program (GGAP). The program,
funded at $100 million a year over four years will be used to fund
maximum abatement and sequestration opportunities.
Another key development is the progression of policy on
emissions trading. During 1999, the AGO published four discussion
papers, namely: Establishing the boundaries, Issuing the permits,
Crediting the carbon and, Designing the market. The contents and
strategies outlined in these papers are expected to lead to the
implementation of an emissions trading system in Australia.
However, the Government has announced that a domestic trading
emissions scheme will not precede the implementation of an
international trading scheme.
To date, Australia has been involved with the loosely aligned
Umbrella, or like-minded Group of countries in the negotiation of
rules pertaining to the use of the flexibility mechanisms under the
Protocol. Australia has advocated full use of the flexibility
mechanisms in order to reduce the cost of compliance. Australia's
position and that of the Umbrella group is opposed by members of
the European Union (EU) who have advocated a cap on the use of the
flexibility mechanisms. The members of the Umbrella group share
similar views on international emissions trading and some other key
issues, including sinks.
In addition to the above programs, the Federal Government has
mandated a requirement that an additional 2 per cent of electricity
will need to be generated from renewable energy sources by 2010
(The Renewable Energy (Electricity) Act 2000). The
renewable energy industry is gearing up to meet the challenge and
opportunity presented by the Federal Government's mandatory
renewables target, phasing in from April 2001. The initiative will
boost the sale of electricity generated by accredited renewable
sources to large electricity retailers and large purchasers by
9 500 GWh per annum by 2010. In addition, the Commonwealth
will provide $381 million in support to the industry over the next
four years.[7] This
requirement will increase the electricity generated from renewable
sources from the current 10.7 per cent to 12.7 per cent by 2010.
The Government introduced a number of amendments to the Renewable
Energy Act in mid 2002.
Australia's
position on ratification
In June 2002, Prime Minister Howard outlined to the Australian
Parliament that on current settings it was not in Australia's
interest to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. The Prime Minister has
announced that: 'because the arrangements currently exclude and are
likely under present settings to continue to exclude both
developing countries and the United States, for us to ratify the
protocol would cost us jobs and damage our industry'.[8] Nevertheless, the
Australian Government has indicated it remains committed to develop
and invest funding in programs to meet the target it agreed to at
Kyoto. The Government has maintained that the target is on par with
the targets taken by other industrialised countries under Kyoto in
terms of the economic adjustment required.
In contrast to the Coalition's position, the Labor Party stated
that in October 2001[9] it would ratify the Kyoto Protocol if it had won the
last Federal election. Whilst the announcement was part of what it
believed was a more comprehensive strategy for tackling climate
change and its effects on Australia's economy, society and
environment, the Labor Party also indicated support for Australia's
coal industry which is particularly emission-intensive. The
statement acknowledged the importance of coal in the Australian
economy its use is a major contributor to Australia's emissions and
places emphasis on finding cleaner and more efficient ways of using
coal, along with other fuel sources.
The presence and active participation of Ministers and senior
officials at the resumed COP6, or COP Part 2 in July 2001 led to
the Bonn Agreement. This reflected a political consensus amongst
the international community that the work of the last several years
should be bought to completion through political agreement. It was
considered imperative that the work of translating the Bonn
Agreement into Conference decisions be completed at COP7,
Marrakesh.
The principles set out in the Bonn
Agreement which were to form the basis for the Marrakesh decisions
included:
- Developed countries will provide greater access to funds and
technology so developing countries can limit emissions and adapt to
climate change.
- Developed countries can receive credit towards their Kyoto
emissions targets from 'sinks'.
- Energy efficiency, renewable energy, and forest sink projects
to qualify for the Clean Development Mechanism. Developed countries
are to refrain from using nuclear facilities in the CDM.
- Use of the Protocol's three flexibility mechanisms should be
supplemental to domestic action, but will constitute a significant
element of the effort made by each Party.
- The establishment of a Compliance Committee with a facilitative
branch and enforcement branch to oversee compliance.
Agreement was reached at Bonn that a
penalty would apply to countries that emitted greenhouse gases in
excess of their 'assigned amount' under the Protocol. The penalty
was set at 1.3, that is, for every carbon equivalent tonne a
country emits in excess of its target, it must subsequently reduce
its overall emissions total by 1.3 tonnes for the next commitment
period.
A key unresolved Bonn issue related to
the binding nature of compliance and any consequences for
non-compliance. That is, could outcomes of compliance and dispute
mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol produce 'legal consequences'
for a country that had ratified? The Bonn agreement essentially
deferred this difficult decision for further discussion until after
the ratification of the Protocol. This decision didn't move beyond
that at Marrakesh.
The resumed COP6 session passed to
COP7 a number of negotiating texts on different issues in varying
states of finalisation. The principal texts requiring finalisation
were the texts on compliance, the text setting out the rules for
the Kyoto flexibility mechanisms, and the text on the treatment of
sinks.
The final Marrakesh agreement on the
operation of the flexibility mechanisms emissions trading, joint
implementation and the clean development mechanism included
provisions that have the potential to impede the development of an
efficient, transparent and competitive international market for
emission credits. Most significantly, a 'mandatory commitment
period reserve' has been imposed. This commitment period reserve
means that in the period 2008 2012, each country must hold up to 90
per cent of their total emissions in a non-tradeable reserve. This
effectively allows trade in only 10 per cent of most countries
total emissions. The issue of the interchangeability (or
'fungibility') of the different Kyoto mechanisms (emissions
trading, joint implementation and the clean development mechanism)
and carbon sinks was resolved. With the exception of some
restrictions on the use of sink credits, the units would be
interchangeable and of equivalent value. This will allow the most
cost-effective mixture of projects and market-based measures to be
taken to reduce global emissions, and may significantly lower the
cost of complying with the Protocol.
The reconvened COP6 session at Bonn
made significant progress on a final text on the rules for carbon
sinks. Sinks that can be used to offset emission increases were
defined to include a broad range of activities. These activities
include growing forests, re-afforestation, and improved forestry,
cropland and grazing land management practices. No overall limit
was placed on the amount of sinks credits that could be claimed;
countries instead were given quotas set out in Annex Z of the Bonn
agreement that reflected their individual circumstances.[10]
At the previous negotiations, Russia
insisted on a footnote being added to its entry in Annex Z. Under
the Bonn agreement Russia was assigned 17.63 million tonnes as a
ceiling to its use of sinks. At COP7, Russia argued and won an
expansion of its previous ceiling to 33 million tonnes.
The sink outcomes incorporate several
of Australia's key priorities. These include no restrictions of
credits obtained from afforestation and reforestation activities,
the inclusion of revegetation as an additional sink activity, and
the removal of a substantial and artificial accounting penalty for
new fast-growing short-rotation forest plantations, which are
particularly relevant to Australia's eucalypt plantations. Sink
credits will be specifically designated as 'removal units' and will
not be able to be carried forward from the first commitment period
to the second commitment period.
In their closing statements at COP7,
many Parties expressed satisfaction that consensus had been
achieved on all outstanding work under the Buenos Aires Plan of
Action (COP4), thus bringing to a close this stage of negotiations,
and preparing the way for ratification and entry into force of the
Protocol.
For further details see Outcomes
from COP7
On the scientific side and a reminder
that global warming is real and a world problem Robert Watson,
Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
addressed COP6 and described the current state of scientific
understanding of the Earth's climate system. He highlighted the
vulnerability of ecological systems, and underlined the need for
effective policy and technological responses. He affirmed a
projected increase in global mean surface temperatures and a rise
in sea levels, and outlined the negative implications of these
increases for water resources, agriculture, natural ecosystems and
human health.
Preliminary findings of the Third
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) 'Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis'[11] released in January 2001,
indicated the impact of global warming is more severe than first
thought and the aftershocks of climate change will have a profound
impact for centuries.
The report is a three-year compilation
of the best scientific knowledge about the effects of rising global
temperatures and concludes that much of the damage to the
environment is already irreversible. Scientists have predicted the
earth's temperatures would increase between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees
Celsius, pushing sea levels up between 0.09 to 0.88 metres over the
next 100 years.
Climatic extremes, such as severe
storms, floods and droughts, would become more frequent in many
regions in the 21st century. Flooding could displace
tens of thousands of people living in countries such as India,
China and Bangladesh.
Effect of Kyoto Protocol
ratification on world greenhouse gas emissions
The CSIRO Division of Atmospheric
Research maintains that for atmospheric concentrations of carbon
dioxide to be stabilised at either two or three times the level of
pre-industrial times, that is 550 parts per million (ppm) or
750ppm, massive changes in global emissions paths will be required.
These paths are outlined in Figure 1.
The ratification of the Kyoto Protocol
by Annex 1 countries could only be considered a first step towards
the reduction in world wide emissions growth. Greenhouse gas
emissions have grown substantially from around 2 Gigatonnes a year
(Gt/y) in 1950 to a little over 8 Gt/y in 2000. A business as usual
scenario would see emissions grow to around 17 Gt/y by the year
2100.
Figure 1: World emissions paths required to stabilise
levels of atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

Source: CSIRO Department of Atmospheric Research
Even with the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, greenhouse gas
emissions are projected to keep gradually increasing at least until
after 2010, and most likely beyond that period as stabilisation of
emissions from Annex countries would be more than offset by
increases in emissions from non-Annex 1 countries. Most Annex 1
countries emissions levels are now well above what they were in
1990, and emissions from non-Annex 1 countries are expected to
overtake Annex 1 countries by around 2005. Greenhouse gases are
relatively long lived, and remain in the atmosphere for long
periods and add to the 'enhanced greenhouse effect', which is
believed responsible for global warming.
For world wide greenhouse gas emissions
to follow the lower trend line and result in an eventual doubling
of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere since pre-industrial
times (550ppm) is highly improbable if one considers the following
factors. Of the world's population of around 6 billion people, some
2 billion currently do not have access to reliable power supply and
do aspire to having such access. Also, the world population is
projected to increase by a further 2 billion people within the next
hundred years or so and these people will have a demand for
electricity. Much of the world's electricity infrastructure is
geared to the use of fossil fuels (coal, gas or oil) and any
large-scale switch to a non fossil fuel based infrastructure is
unlikely to occur quickly.
The continuation of a business-as-usual
scenario without Kyoto would result in greenhouse gas emissions
increasing to more than double what they are now or to around 17
Gt/year by 2100. Although the CSIRO Division of Atmospheric
Research does not quantify what this would mean in terms of
increases in greenhouse gas emission levels in the atmosphere, one
surmises that it could result in either a quadrupling or even
greater level compared to pre-industrial levels. If such levels
were reached, the effects on climate may be profound considering
claims that the present increase in atmospheric concentration of
around 30 per cent on pre-industrial levels is already having
considerable impact.
A number of commentators have pointed
out that there may be more than environmental considerations at
stake in the Kyoto Protocol negotiations. It is evident that the EU
has a less onerous task of meeting the Kyoto Protocol undertakings.
As such, a hardened approach to the negotiation process may
advantage the EU on economic grounds. Firstly, there is the fact
that the EU has the flexibility of sharing a 'bubble' arrangement
amongst members states, which is equivalent to an opportunity to
reduce emissions in the least cost regions. The loosely aligned
Umbrella group has argued for similar considerations through the
full use of the flexibility mechanisms and the use of sinks, which
the EU has objected to vehemently. Also, many European countries
generate substantial amount of their electricity through nuclear
power plants, which have negligible emissions. As seen earlier,
greenhouse gas emissions from stationary energy generation, and in
particular coal-fired electricity generation are the most
intensive. Furthermore, the EU has little to gain from offsets such
as carbon sinks and land use change. It could be suggested, perhaps
somewhat cynically, that attempts by the EU to limit the use of
such techniques (if in fact they are a valid measurable scientific
method of sequestering carbon) is akin to seeking a substantial
economic and trade advantage over other Annex 1 countries.
It is also evident that of the
substantial number of government participants that attend and are
actively involved in Conference of the Parties negotiations for
COP7, there were over 4400 participants (well down on previous
meetings) from 172 governments only 39 of them are Annex 1
countries that have made a commitment under the Kyoto Protocol to
reduce or contain emission levels to some extent. In March 2001,
the US administration declared its opposition to the Protocol,
stating that it believed it to be 'fatally flawed', as it would
damage its economy and exempted developing countries from fully
participating. The other countries, G-77/China, although part of
the negotiating process, have made no commitments or are they
required to under Kyoto to reduce emissions. By around the year
2005, emissions from this group of countries, led by China and
India, will surpass the emissions of OECD countries, and are
projected to increase rapidly after that date. There could be
considerable advantage to non-Annex 1 parties if costs of
production of energy intensive industries in Annex 1 party
countries were increased substantially because of emission
reduction strategies. Competitiveness of such industries in Annex 1
countries would be reduced vis-a-vis similar industries in
non-Annex 1 countries.
A key consideration is Australia's trade
competitiveness. Our national circumstances are very different from
those of most other developed nations. Ours is a small, highly
specialised economy. Our strong comparative advantage is in energy
intensive production. We have strong trade linkages with developing
countries, especially in Asia. Our economy would be especially
vulnerable to any outcome that imposed unfair and unrealistic
reduction targets. One major shortcoming of a ratified Kyoto
Protocol is that without the participation of the United States and
the developing world, some 75 per cent of the world's emissions are
outside its management and assessment. Furthermore, the
undertakings of the Kyoto Protocol as they stand will make little
difference on the key objective of stabilisation of greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere. The ultimate objective of the United
Framework Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), from
which the Kyoto Protocol has developed is the stabilisation of
atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at a level that
would prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system.
The level at which atmospheric concentrations must be stabilised is
yet to be determined. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) said long ago that stabilising atmospheric concentrations of
greenhouse gas emissions at 1990 levels would require an immediate
reduction in global emissions of some 60 per cent.
The IPCC statement stands in stark
contrast with the present aim of industrialised countries in the
Kyoto Protocol to achieve an overall reduction in their greenhouse
gas emissions of at least 5 per cent in the period to 2008
2012. Nothing the nations have yet agreed to do comes remotely
close to what the IPCC said would be needed to stabilise
atmospheric concentrations at today's levels.
However, many commentators have stated
that the Kyoto Protocol is at least a start on emissions reductions
although the task of decoupling the use of energy and emissions
intensity would appear daunting. Despite the uptake and development
of many forms of renewable energy biomass, wind and solar energy
use projections from the International Energy Agency indicate the
bulk of total primary energy supply will remain sourced from fossil
based fuels well beyond 2010.
[1].Senator
the Hon Robert Hill, Speaking at a meeting to the Pew Centre on
Global Climate Change in Washington, 'Beyond Kyoto Australia's
efforts to combat global warming', 25 April 2000, Canberra,
p. 3.
[2].G Andrews, 'Climate Change, The current status of
Australia's response', Proceedings of the National Agricultural and
Resources Outlook Conference, ABARE, 29 February 2 March 2000,
Canberra, vol. 1, p. 69.
[3].Jotzo, F., et al,' Kyoto Protocol, Impact on developing
countries and some implications for the design of the Kyoto
mechanisms', ABARE, Natural Resources, Outlook 2000, New Directions
Future Markets, Proceedings of the National Outlook Conference, 29
February 2 March, Canberra, p. 52.
[4].International Energy Agency, 'CO2 Emissions from Fuel
Combustion', 1971 1999, 2001 Edition, Paris.
[5].Australian Greenhouse Office, 'National Greenhouse Gas
Inventory 2000', August 2002, Canberra, p. v.
[6].Australian Greenhouse Office, 'Australia's Third
national Communication on Climate Change' A Report under the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2002, Canberra, p.
8.
[7].Australian Energy News 2000, 'Renewables Energy action
agenda', Canberra, March, p. 21.
[8].Prime Minister, The Hon John Howard MP, Representatives,
5 June 2002, Answers to Questions Without Notice, p. 3163.
[9].Kim Beazley Leader of the Opposition, Australian Labor
Party, 'Labor's Leadership On Climate Change' Media Statement, 9
October 2001.
[10].Garth Crawford, 'After Marrakesh: Outcomes of COP7
Climate Change Negotiations', Paper delivered to the Australian Gas
Association Annual Convention, Sydney, 16 November 2001.
[11].UN warns of global-warming crisis, The Canberra Times,
23 January 2001, p. 2.
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