The 2004 Queensland state election was held on
7 February 2004.
Opinion poll findings made it clear that the
opposition parties were unlikely to defeat the Beattie Labor
Government. Newspoll figures since the 2001 Queensland election
indicated a remarkable stability in the public standing of the
three major players. A long-term reading of the Queensland polls
suggested that enough voters were satisfied with Peter Beattie and
his government to make a return to the government benches virtually
certain.
During the campaign no matter what was
promised by the National-Liberal Coalition, the polls remained
firmly the Premiers way, suggesting that his partys majority would
remain healthy after the counting was completed. Despite this,
there were three areas of policy that might harm the Government:
sugar industry issues, land clearing and the long-delayed Tugun
bypass.
The Labor campaign had two parts to it. On the
one hand, there was a heavy focus upon Premier Beattie who followed
a well-trodden path around the State. The second part of the Labor
campaign focussed on local efforts to hold seats that the party had
surprisingly won in 2001.
The Nationals and the Liberal Party were
united as rarely before, agreeing to reject nominations that would
produce three-cornered contests. The early stages of campaigning
saw the two party leaders, Lawrence Springborg (NPA) and Bob Quinn
(LP), campaigning together. This was criticised, largely because it
tended to take Quinn away from those areas where his party needed
to win seats if it were to restore its parliamentary presence to a
more respectable level. The parties proffered a full set of
policies, but despite this the Opposition campaign was unusually
defensive. Rather than portraying himself as an alternative
premier, Springborg soon began to speak of the election being an
opportunity [for voters] to be able to restore the balance in the
Parliament, rather than actually bringing about the defeat of the
Government.
With ALP first preference votes rising in
nearly two-fifths of its seats, the Labor Partys first preference
tally fell by just 1.9 per cent. This result produced a nett loss
of three seats, leaving it with 63 of the 89 Legislative Assembly
seatsa parliamentary majority of 37 seats. Labors comfortable
victory reflected the high standing of the Premier and his
government during the years since the previous election. The
Coalition parties proved unable to make any major dents in popular
support for the Beattie team, despite a rise in the votes for each
party. Although many voters apparently liked what they saw of
Springborg, this appreciation did not show up in a sufficiently
large increase for the Coalition to win a large parcel of seats.
Much of the Coalition increase came from One Nations loss of votes,
combined with the collapse of the City Country Alliance.
Despite some confusion in their campaigning,
the Greens proportion of the vote rose from 2.5 per cent to 6.8 per
cent, suggesting that the increase in their support in the southern
states was being seen in Queensland as well.
Although One Nation contested twelve more
seats than in 2001, their vote tumbled to 4.9 per cent, 17.8 per
cent behind its 1998 high point. The party managed to retain one of
its two seats but lost its leader, Bill Flynn.
For the immediate future:
the Queensland Parliament will remain dominated by the
Labor Party holding 63 of 89 seats
the Nationals vote of 17 per cent in 2004 remains its
third-lowest vote in twenty elections since 1950, causing some
observers to speak of the party gradually slipping into oblivionor
more correctly, into the position of a rump party whose strength is
found in the seats of western Queensland. The party will have 15
seats in the Legislative Assembly
for the Liberal Party, this election saw a small step
back from the near-oblivion suffered in 2001 with its three seats
being increased by two. For the party to regain any strength in
state elections, it has to build on its Gold Coast and Sunshine
Coast seats and break back into Brisbane. The problem for the party
is working out how to regain the support of many people who vote
for it in Commonwealth electionsthe so-called Beattie Liberals
the Liberal performance in recent elections is a
reminder of how parties may not do well in a state election, yet
may do very well in that state in a Commonwealth election held
close to the time of the state elections
the Greens are positioned well for the next Senate
poll
several strong independents occupy seats that will be
difficult for the major parties to regain, and
the 2004 state election may well have been the last
hurrah for One Nation in a Queensland election.
The 2004 Queensland election saw the Labor
Government of Peter Beattie returned with just the loss of three
Legislative Assembly seats, leaving it with 63 of 89 seats. This
result confirms the widely-held view that if a state government
appears to be well in control of the states administration and
services, it can be difficult to defeat. After barely winning
office in 1998, Beattie swept to a clear victory in 2001 and has
now retained office with a still-comfortable parliamentary
majority. At the same time, the Coalition parties combined votes
rose by an amount sufficient for them to feel that they will be
well within reach of office at the time of the next election,
something that Nationals leader, Lawrence Springborg has emphasised
in the period since the polling day.
Among other outcomes:
despite retaining one of its two Members of Parliament,
the One Nation partys vote fell to a point where it was barely a
factor in the election. One Nations sole MP, Rosa Lee Long, has not
ruled out a move to becoming an independent
along with the near-collapse of One Nation, the
disappearance of the City Country Alliance played a part in the
increase in Coalition votes
the election saw the first significant performance by
Green candidates in a Queensland election, with some Brisbane seats
returning Green votes that matched some of the highest votes in the
most recent Victorian and New South Wales elections. The Green
performance across the state suggested that a Green Senate seat is
within reach at the next Commonwealth election, and
five of the six independents in the Parliament regained
their seats; four increased their primary vote, and all seem
well-entrenched.
The 2004 Queensland state election was held on
7 February 2004. Although the election was early, it was only ten
days short of the anniversary of the 2001 poll.
The electoral boundaries were those used for
the previous election.
The dissolution of Parliament saw several
well-known Coalition Members leaving the Legislative Assembly:
former Liberal leader and Deputy Premier, Joan Sheldon, (Caloundra,
MP since 1990), former Member of the House of Representatives
(Forde) and state Liberal leader David Watson (Moggill, 1989), and
former National Party minister Vince Lester (Keppel, 1974). Labor
ministers leaving the Parliament included Minister for Employment,
Training and Youth, Matt Foley (Yeerongpilly, 1989), Minister for
Health Wendy Edmond (Mount Coot-tha, 1989) and Minister for
Transport and Main Roads, Steve Bredhauer (Cook, 1989). The ALP
Member for Thuringowa, Anita Phillips (2001), left the Parliament
to seek pre-selection for the Commonwealth seat of Herbert.
The 2004 election was conducted under revised
electoral legislation. The Electoral and Other Acts Amendment Act
2002(Qld) was passed to implement electoral reforms that had
been discussed in Premier Beatties Good Government Plan released in
January 2001. This part of the plan had flowed from recommendations
made in the previous year by the Legal, Constitutional and
Administrative Review Committee of the Queensland
Parliament.(1) The changes included:
new registration requirements for political parties
more detail required in party constitutions including
procedures for amending party constitutions, how parties manage
their internal affairs, and rules for election of office bearers
and party candidates
party preselection ballots to satisfy general principles
of free and democratic elections
how-to-vote cards to be lodged in advance of elections,
and to be made public to voters
public disclosure of loans and gifts to candidates
tougher penalties for electoral offences, and
funding and disclosure provisions written so as to
achieve greater consistency with Commonwealth
arrangements.(2)
Opinion poll findings made it clear that the
opposition parties were unlikely to defeat the Beattie Labor
Government. Newspoll figures since the 2001 Queensland election
indicated a remarkable stability in the public standing of the
three major players. In three years of polls, the intended ALP vote
figure varied between 45 and 53 per cent, with an average of 47.8
per cent; their opponents combined vote ranged from 31 to 38 per
cent, with an average of 34.7 per cent. The average margin between
them was 13 per cent, with the closest figure being seven per cent
in a poll taken in AprilJune 2003. Significantly, though, the gap
widened from that poll until election day, with a margin of 14 per
cent on the eve of the election.(3)
These poll findings suggest that enough voters
were satisfied with Peter Beattie and his government to make their
return to the government benches virtually certain. This was
despite some problems such as the future of the sugar industry, and
the costly failure of the Australian Magnesium Corporation to start
a light metals industry near Rockhampton. The number of major
problems was small, however, with one Courier-Mail journalist in fact
speaking of the Governments relatively good record on keeping its
election pledges.(4) Observers referred approvingly to
Beatties leadership skills,(5) his relatively benign
rule,(6) and his personal rapport with the Queensland
electorate.(7) Even in the final year of his second
term, Newspoll was suggesting that the Premiers approval rating
remained remarkably constant, from a high of 69 per cent to just
eight percentage points lower. Never more than 25 per cent of those
polled expressed themselves to be dissatisfied with his performance
over this period.(8)
If a state government remains popular, there
is little traction that an opposition can make. As noted above, the
Coalition never managed to reduce the margin between the parties to
less than seven percentage points in the three years between the
two elections. Any improvement in the Coalitions standing could
largely be explained by a shift away from various minor parties
rather than a marked drop in support for Labor. Coalition support
therefore was up, but Labors support had barely slipped.
About twelve months before the election, the
Nationals had replaced Mike Horan with Lawrence Springborg as party
leader. Springborgs poll standing gradually climbed from
FebruaryMarch 2003 where about one-third of those polled expressed
satisfaction with his performance, to nearly half saying so on the
eve of the election. Most tellingly, however, the uncommitted
figure, which was presumably made up largely of people who were
unaware of his having the position, remained at about one-third of
those polled, a typical figure for state leaders of the
Opposition.
A week from polling day, the competing electoral
juggernauts of Premier Peter Beattie and Opposition Leader Lawrence
Springborg continue on their way, stirring up apathy the length and
breadth of Queensland. For many people, its too hot, too humid and
too hectic with the back-to-school rush to focus on policy debates,
such as they are in this lacklustre campaign.(9)
Such a comment from a journalist presumably
reflected the widely-expressed view that the Governments return was
certain. No matter what was promised by the National-Liberal
Coalition, the polls remained firmly in favour of the Premier
during the campaign, suggesting that his partys majority would
remain healthy. Despite this, there were three areas of policy that
were regarded as dangerous for the Government:
in the seats in which sugar was a major industry,
efforts were made, particularly by Commonwealth MP, Bob Katter, to
produce a field of sugar independents. These non-party candidates
nominated in an effort to reduce sitting members votes and to draw
attention to the strength of opposition to such matters as
deregulation, the level of government assistance, the question of
mandated ethanol content in fuel and the declining number of sugar
growers(10)
land clearing in Queensland has been an issue since the
days of the Bjelke-Petersen coalition government. Successive
governments have been loath to promise to stop this agricultural
clearing for fear of antagonising the farm lobby. In this election,
however, Premier Beattie promised to end land clearing by 2006,
throwing the Green party off-guard and antagonising the farmers
spokespeople at Agforce who described the promise as an appalling
political act.(11) It remained to be seen what this
might do to the Governments rural vote, and
a long-mootedand long-delayedbypass in the Gold Coast
suburb of Tugun gained a great deal of publicity, most of it
critical of the Governments failure to deliver on an old promise to
build the freeway. Would this adversely affect Labors
recently-gained vote in the South-East?
The Labor campaign had two parts to it. It has
now become part and parcel of Australian electioneering that a
focus on leaders is the preferred party tactic. This gives parties
much more control over what they are attempting to do. It also is
designed to lessen the danger of damaging mistakes being made
during the campaign. It was therefore inevitable that the Labor
Government would base its campaign upon the Premierthe only other
minister to be heard regularly was the Deputy Premier and
Treasurer, Terry Mackenroth.
When announcing an early election, the Premier
began the campaign in an apparently odd fashion. In the previous
week, the Crime and Misconduct Commission handed down a damning
report into questions associated with child protection. The
Commission found serious long-term problems with the way in which
claims of abuse against children in care were handled by
government. In his announcement, Beattie justified the calling of
an early election by stating that it was important to have a new
government in place quickly to implement child protection reforms.
The early election was, he claimed, all about putting children
first.(12) A journalist was cynical:
since when has a margin of 66-15 over the Opposition (with
another eight seats held by independents and minor
parties), and no upper house to worry about, not been
sufficient authority for a government to act?(13)
After this unusual beginning, Beatties was a
steady campaign which delivered the party to voters in much the
same shape as it had been when the election was announced. If there
were any doubts within the party headquarters, they would probably
have been caused by uncertainty over the partys likely performance
in the sugar seats and on the Gold and Sunshine Coasts, areas where
the party made some surprise gains in 2001. This uncertainty may
well have caused the Premier on election-eve to promisefor the
third consecutive campaignthat the Tugun bypass would actually be
built. The promise was made without confirmation that necessary
Commonwealth money would be forthcoming. This produced unwelcome
photographs in the press, featuring householders at Bilinga whose
houses would be resumed for the bypass construction: theres no way
theyre bloody getting us out of here, unless its in a box, claimed
a 40-year resident of doomed Adina Avenue.(14)
The second part of the Labor campaign focussed
on the need to hold individual seats. According to former ALP
Queensland state secretary, Mike Kaiser, the party sought to avoid
the debacle of 1995 when the loss of several marginal seats saw the
partys comfortable parliamentary majority reduced to a single seat.
The party had made a considerable break-through in many seats in
2001 and needed to hold on to these seats if it were to keep its
position secure23 Labor MPs were facing their first re-election.
Assuming that it is harder for voters to cast a protest ballot
against a government when they know and relate to their local
member, Labor worked at building up a positive profile of their
more vulnerable MPs.(15)
Unsurprisingly, Labor sought to take advantage
of the optional preferential voting system by calling on voters to
Just vote 1, just as it had done in 2001.(16)
This policy was designed to:
lessen the impact of the exchange of preferences between
the Liberals and the Nationals
encourage One Nation voters not to allocate second
preferences which might flow disproportionately against Labor,
and
reduce any possible leverage that the Greens might gain
in negotiation over the possible exchange of preferences.
The Nationals and the Liberal Party were
united as rarely before, agreeing to reject nominations that would
produce three-cornered contests. This was a policy effectively
forced on the parties by optional preferential voting and the
likelihood that many voters would not vote for a full slate of
candidates. There was some dispute between the parties over the
allocation of candidates to some seats, particularly the running of
National rather than Liberal candidates in areas that might have
been more supportive of a Liberal candidate. Why were the Liberals
not contesting Southport, Broadwater or Burleigh on the Gold Coast,
asked one journalist. He went on to question the decision to keep
the Liberal Party out of the Brisbane seats of Kurwongbah, Logan,
Springwood or Redlands, making the point that such areas were far
more likely to be sympathetic to Liberal than to National
policies.(17)
The early stages of campaigning saw the two
party leaders, Lawrence Springborg (NPA) and Bob Quinn (LP),
campaigning togetherthe modern-day odd couple, as they were
described.(18) This was criticised, partly because
photographs seemed always to place the leaders in a rural setting,
but largely because it tended to take Quinn away from those areas
where his party needed to win seats if it were to rebuild its
parliamentary presence. Media criticism also spoke of the Liberals
being unable to stake out a different policy stance to that of the
Nationals.(19)
The parties ran a full complement of policies,
as state Oppositions tend to do.(20) Some policies were
designed to attract particular voters. Some were wide-ranging, such
as the reduction of stamp duty for first home buyers, or the
creation of enterprise zones for business. Law and order promises
were highlighted: mandatory sentencing, tougher penalties for home
invasions and public drunkenness, and improvements to general law
and order. School principals were to be empowered to remove
disruptive people from school grounds and ban them for 24 hours.
There were also many locally-targetted policies, such as the money
promised for Hervey Bays proposed Fishing Hall of Fame. Rural areas
received special attention, most notably the promise of a great
deal more money to be spent on rural roads as well as a commitment
to sugar growers to guarantee a mandated ten per cent ethanol
content in fuel sold in Brisbane. The Nationals made a concerted
effort to remind rural voters of how the Beattie Government was too
city-centric(21) in its policies: its schools were
anti-farmer according to the Deputy Prime Minister,(22)
there was a need to make them [i.e. the Government] hear you all
the time, according to Springborg.(23)
The Opposition campaign was unusually
defensive. Rather than portraying himself as an alternative
Premier, Springborg soon began to speak of the election being an
opportunity [for voters] to be able to restore the balance in the
Parliament, rather than actually bringing about the defeat of the
Government. In fact, restoring the balance became the Coalitions
campaign slogan. Springborg referred continually to the election
providing an opportunity to build a platform from which an
office-seeking campaign could be run in 2007. Such an approach no
doubt showed a high degree of realism about the Coalitions chances,
but it also encouraged the media to quickly write off the
Coalitions effort.(24) One journalist criticised a
strategy which let the Premier dictate each days main media story,
with the Coalition being left to respond to Beattie rather than set
the days issue themselves. Another journalist criticised
Springborgs desire to avoid confrontation, preferring to be a media
prop and respond to the news of the week, not create
it.(25)
Ironically, when Springborg drew attention to
the violence and addiction problems at the Aboriginal settlement of
Cherbourg, he forced a response from the Premier. Beattie said he
had been to the community in the past and did not need to go back.
He later was forced to admit that this visit had not been since
1995, well before he became Premier.(26)
The Coalition strategy was said to be
two-fold. In the first instance there was an effort to identify
Springborg in voters minds. His personal attributes were
highlighted and the promise was made that he would lead a united
team were the Coalition to be returned to power. Once the Nationals
leaders persona was clearly differentiated in the electoral
marketplace, the effort would then be to translate his (hopefully)
high standing into votes. As referred to above, opinion polls
showed a clear improvement in voters awareness of, and support for,
Springborg as time went by, but figures for the Coalition remained
quite unimpressive. As one headline put it: Springborg: strong
leader of a shambles.(27) Springborg was not without
critics, however. While running a photograph of the Nationals
leader feeding dolphins at Tin Can Bay, the Courier-Mail drew attention to
his propensity to engage in photographic opportunities that have
very little to do with the election or policy issues, the most
regular of which were the many pictures of him jogging in the early
morning.(28)
The Greens ran a campaign that was dominated
by confusion over what should be done about the direction of their
preferences. With Labor not engaging in any discussion on the
exchange of preferences, the Greens were left isolatedone Green
candidate indicated the resulting frustration when claiming that
the Governments Just Vote 1 policy was damaging to the electoral
process.(29) To an important degree, the Greens position
was weakened by the Premiers promise to end wholesale land
clearing, as well as his governments intention to protect the
future of wild rivers. Inexplicably, the Green support for these
proposals seemed far more lukewarm than the keenness with which the
Wilderness Society had supported them.(30) Eventually
the Greens allocated preferences to the ALP in 18 seats, including
the marginal seats of Clayfield, Burleigh and Broadwater, and to
four independents. No Coalition candidate received Green
preferences.(31)
Before the election, the One Nation leader,
Bill Flynn, had spoken of his party contesting up to seventy seats.
Flynn said that he recognised the impossibility of disturbing the
Government, but he saw this election as the opportunity for One
Nation to become the new Opposition party in the Queensland
Parliament. He had also stated that the party would welcome Pauline
Hanson, whether as candidate or campaigner.(32) In the
event, One Nation nominated 51 candidates, twelve more than in
2001. Lacking the support and presence of the media-friendly
Hanson, the party had difficulty getting any consistent coverage,
particularly as Flynn rarely left Brisbane.(33)
This was an election remarkable for the number
of distractions that occurred, the political impact of which was
difficult to calculate:
In the seats in which sugar was a major industry,
efforts were made, particularly by Commonwealth MP, Bob Katter, to
produce a field of sugar independents. These non-party candidates
nominated in an effort to reduce sitting members votes and draw
attention to the strength of opposition to policies of Commonwealth
and state governments.
Labor Minister for Tourism and Racing and Minister for
Fair Trading, Merri Rose, stepped down from office on the second
day of the campaign. This followed a ruling in a workers
compensation case which supported claims that she had bullied a
former employee. Rose had earlier embarrassed the Government when
it was revealed that her son had been using her government car and
fuel card to travel to work. She later repaid money improperly
charged by her son to the card during a return trip to Sydney for a
football match. Her departure from office so close to polling day
left the Labor Party worried about whether she could hold her Gold
Coast seat of Currumbin in a region so recently controlled by its
opponents. The Premier had been criticised for not requiring that
Rose step down much sooner.(34)
Pauline Hanson and David Etteridge chose to use the
election campaign as a means to publicise their claims against the
Government in relation to their gaoling between August and November
2003. Hanson spoke of seeking $2 million in
compensation(35)
the Nationals candidate for Maryborough was dropped by
his party, for failing to reveal that he had been subject to a
domestic violence order two years previously(36)
the Nationals candidate for Cook gained publicity for
calling his party colleagues a bunch of dickheads. He retained his
endorsement(37)
the Nationals candidate in Whitsunday was disendorsed
after being found to have an apparent Nazi Party background from
many years before. He claimed that he had been working in an
undercover role at a time a photo showing him with a Nazi armband
appeared in the press in 1966(38)
the Liberal candidate for Ashgrove was reported as being
investigated for an alleged assault(39)
the Labor Party ruled out disendorsing their candidate
for Gregory despite bullying a co-worker three years
before(40)
when it was revealed that the One Nation candidate for
Toowoomba North faced assault charges, he resigned from the party
to run as an independent rather than damage the
party(41)
the Coalition aired an advertisement early in the
campaign which featured a woman stating she would not vote for
Premier Beattie. When it was revealed that the actor involved was
not on the Queensland electoral roll, a Nationals spokesperson was
criticised for stating that the matter was private. One editor
asked, Is it not right to expect a level of truth in political
advertising which extends to the actors used in party
promotions?(42)
the fact Lawrence Springborg allowed the media to take
and publish a photograph of him clad only in a towel while he did
his ironing was criticised or ridiculed in the press. Linda
Springborg also gained media coverage for her assurance to
newspaper readers that there was more to her ruro-sexual husband
than his good looks and toned muscles,(43) and
a press article that seemed to criticise Linda
Springborg for avoiding the election trail prompted the Nationals
leader to be photographed by the media with his family (including
his wife). It was difficult to see how the Nationals leader had
anything to gain by allowing himself to be distracted from the
campaign in this way.(44) One journalist did attempt to
turn the story back on the ALP, suggesting that the criticism of
Linda Springborg was made by city-dwelling, latte-sipping critics,
who, by implication, were Labor supporters.(45)
In the book Australian State Politics
published nearly twenty years ago, it was observed that two related
questions play a part in all state elections held in this
countryleadership and administrative competence. Of great
importance to this is the standing of the Premier. As head of the
states administration and the most visible member of the governing
party, the Premier is usually seen as crucial to a governments
chances of re-election. Aligned with this, is the electorates view
of the Premiers government. If the trains run on time and it seems
clear that the incumbent government is better-equipped to handle
the states administration than their opponents, it can be very hard
for an Opposition to gain power, even when the image of that
Opposition may be a positive one.(46)
In the 2004 Queensland election, it seems that
an analyst need not go past these words to explain the election
result. As mentioned earlier, the standing of the Premier and his
government had remained consistently high in the polls, with the
Coalition parties unable to make any long-term dents in their
popular support. The change in the leadership of the Nationals
certainly saw the standing of the Leader of the Opposition rise in
the polls (see above). Although many voters apparently liked what
they saw of Lawrence Springborg, this appreciation did not flow on
to either of the Coalition partners in sufficient measure for them
to succeed.
The Governments win was almost as comfortable
as that of 2001. With ALP primary votes rising in nearly two-fifths
of its seats, the partys first preference tally fell by only 1.9
per cent. This result produced a nett loss of three seats, leaving
it with 63 of the 89 Legislative Assembly seatsa parliamentary
majority of 37.(47) Labor lost three seats to the
Nationals (Burdekin, Burnett and Charters Towers), lost Merri Roses
Currumbin to the Liberal Party, and picked up Vince Lesters seat of
Keppel from the Nationals. Burdekin and Burnett were both sugar
seats, but the Governments vote actually rose in Burdekin, as it
did in the sugar seats of Hervey Bay and Whitsunday, suggesting
that the sugar independents presence did not do a great deal of
damage to the Government (or the Opposition). Queensland Country Life referred
to survey figures that suggested the ALP would receive only five
per cent of the bush vote, but Labors 2001 regional and rural vote
was still 39.1 per cent, a fall of only 2.2 per
cent.(48)
Labors determination to see the re-election of
its 2001 MPs bore fruit. Sixteen of the 23 who were seeking their
second term saw an increase in their primary vote; only three of
the new MPs were defeated. Essentially, Labor lost votes where it
could afford to do so. Among the most spectacular examples were
Cook (-21.8%), Bundaberg (-13.7%) and Bulimba (-12.5%), yet Labor
retained these seats. It seems that those seats in which the party
lost most votes were largely affected by local factors such as the
sugar issue (Burnett and Bundaberg), a controversial local member
(Currumbin and Townsville) or the retirement of a Minister (Cook,
Mt Coot-tha and Yeerongpilly). Thirteen of Labors 20 most marginal
seats saw a pro-Labor shift:
Labor
marginal seatsfirst preference votes (* seats
lost)
|
Seat
|
Swing to Labor
|
Swing from Labor
|
|
Noosa
|
6.4
|
|
|
Burnett*
|
|
4.3
|
|
Burleigh
|
3.0
|
|
|
Toowoomba Nth
|
8.0
|
|
|
Charters Towers*
|
|
0.2
|
|
Broadwater
|
|
3.1
|
|
Kawana
|
1.8
|
|
|
Indooroopilly
|
2.2
|
|
|
Thuringowa
|
3.8
|
|
|
Aspley
|
|
4.4
|
|
Burdekin*
|
0.1
|
|
|
Mudgeeraba
|
3.2
|
|
|
Redlands
|
4.9
|
|
|
Barron River
|
|
0.7
|
|
Ipswich West
|
3.1
|
|
|
Gaven
|
0.9
|
|
|
Hervey Bay
|
2.3
|
|
|
Mansfield
|
0.5
|
|
|
Mt Ommaney
|
3.4
|
|
|
Townsville
|
|
9.5
|
|
Totals (ave swing)
|
13 (3.4%)
|
7 (3.2%)
|
Source:
Electoral Commission of Queensland
One of the ALPs major concerns was whether the
party could retain the striking 2001 gains on the Gold and Sunshine
Coasts. Although there was overall slippage of the Labor vote in
Brisbane and the rural and regional seats, the partys share of the
vote did not move at all on the Gold or Sunshine Coasts. Currumbin
was the only Labor seat lost:
Labors regional vote
19982001
|
|
Brisbane
|
Gold and Sunshine Coasts
|
Regional and Rural
|
|
1998
|
46.9
|
29.2
|
33.5
|
|
2001
|
57.9
|
43.1
|
41.3
|
|
2004
|
55.5
|
43.1
|
39.1
|
Source:
Gerard Newman,
1998 Queensland
Election, Current Issues Brief, no. 2,
Parliamentary Library, Canberra, 199899; Scott Bennett and Gerard
Newman, Queensland Election 2001, Current Issues Brief, no. 15,
2000‑01, Parliamentary Library, Canberra, 200001; and
Electoral Commission Queensland.
The Coalitions nett gain was five seats,
giving it 20 of 89 seats.
The Nationals won Burdekin, Burnett and
Charters Towers from Labor, and Lockyer from One Nation, but lost
Vince Lesters seat of Keppel to Labor. In the new Parliament, it
would have fifteen seats.
The Liberal Party won Currumbin from Labor and
Surfers Paradise from an independent, giving it five seats in the
Parliament.
Despite the confusions in their campaigning
(see above), the Green proportion of the vote rose from 2.5 per
cent to 6.8 per cent, suggesting that the increase in their support
in the southern states was being seen in Queensland as well. As in
the most recent New South Wales and Victorian elections, some
Brisbane seats saw the Greens challenging the Liberal Party. In Mt
Coot-tha their vote was 23.6 per cent (Liberal Party 30.1%), and in
South Brisbane their vote was 20 per cent (Liberal Party 24.1%).
The Green vote topped ten per cent in 14 other seats, including
Townsville where their candidate managed a first preference vote of
13 per cent.
By the time of the election, One Nation held
just two Legislative Assembly seats. Despite contesting 12 more
seats than in 2001 the partys vote tumbled to 4.9 per cent, 17.8
per cent behind its 1998 high point:
One
Nation 19982004
|
Election
|
Candidates
|
Seats won
|
Votes
|
%
|
Swing
|
|
1998
|
79
|
11
|
439 121
|
22.7
|
+22.7
|
|
2001
|
39
|
3
|
179 076
|
8.7
|
-14.0
|
|
2004
|
51
|
1
|
104 980
|
4.9
|
-3.8
|
Source: Gerard
Newman, 1998 Queensland Election, Current Issues Brief, no. 2,
Parliamentary Library, Canberra, 199899; Scott Bennett and Gerard
Newman, Queensland Election 2001, Current Issues Brief, no. 15,
2000‑01, Parliamentary Library, Canberra, 200001; and
Electoral Commission Queensland.
In the South-Eastern seat of Lockyer, the
party leader, Bill Flynn, gained only 20.5 per cent of First
Preferences (-7.8%) and was defeated comfortably on preferences by
the Nationals Ian Rickuss. By contrast, the party managed to retain
the Far North Queensland seat of Tablelands, where Rosa Lee Long
showed that a steady performance by a One Nation sitting member
could secure an electoral reward. She gained a remarkable 47 per
cent of First Preferences (+11%), and became the first One Nation
MP anywhere in Australia to achieve re-election. It is uncertain
whether she will remain a party MP or will shift to the independent
benchesshe has said that such a move will depend on what future
directions we take.(49)
One Nations state director, Rod Evans, blamed
the lack of money and Hansons absence for the partys poor
performance. Griffith Universitys John Wanna pronounced the partys
end, suggesting that it was unlikely to secure the re-election of
Senator Len Harris in the forthcoming national
election.(50)
At the time of the election, independents held
six seats. One of these, Lex Bell, lost Surfers Paradise to the
Liberal Party. The remaining five all seem to be well-entrenched.
The longest-serving members, Liz Cunningham (Gladstone, 55.3%,
+4.7%) and Peter Wellington (Nicklin, 59.5%, +13.2%) both increased
their personal vote to very healthy levels. In Maryborough, the
absence of a National candidate (see above) enabled Chris Foley,
elected in a September 2003 by-election, to almost double his vote
(64.9%, +31.6%). The two independents who had originally been
elected as One Nation MPs also consolidated their positions. In
Gympie, Elisa Roberts only managed one-third of First Preferences,
though that was an increase of 7.7 per cent, and she won
comfortably on preferences. Only Dolly Pratt in Nanango saw her
vote fall (-0.5%), but with a first preference tally of 45.7 per
cent her position was hardly in doubt.
The Government is still apparently
impregnable, for it would take the loss of nineteen seats to see
its majority disappear. It has lost votes in many seats, but has
also begun to cement itself into seats won as recently as 2001.
Labor has an important presence in all regions except the western
portion of the State, which gives it a strength that (barring
governmental disasters) will make it difficult to defeat.
It was once usual for the Liberal Party to
gain more votes but fewer seats than the Country/National Party.
This was reversed between the 1977 and 1995 elections, with the
National Party managing nearly 40 per cent of the vote in 1986.
Since that election however, the Nationals vote has declined to the
point where it managed only 14.2 per cent in 2001. The slight
increase to 17 per cent in 2004 remains its third-lowest vote in
twenty elections since 1950. In a reminder of earlier times, the
last three elections have also seen the party winning fewer votes
than the Liberal Party.
Probably a key aspect of the Nationals
declining electoral health is the concentration of its support in
just one region of the state. Using Electoral Commission of
Queensland classifications, we find that seven of their fifteen
Legislative Assembly seats are today held in Western Queensland. Of
the eight others, three are in the rural South East, two are in
each of Central Queensland and North Queensland, and there is a
single seat on the Sunshine Coast. The party has been hurt by the
resurgence of the ALP during the 1990s, as well as the number and
strength of the independents elected in the last three elections
(see above). The Nationals have also been badly wounded by the drop
in their vote in Gold and Sunshine Coast electorates, symbolised by
their loss in 2001 of Surfers Paradise, the seat (from 1980) of
former party leader, Rob Borbidge. In 1995 the party won seven of
the thirteen seats in these areas; in 2004 it held just
Maroochydore of the fifteen Gold or Sunshine Coast seats:
Nationals vote 19952001
|
|
Statewide
|
Gold and Sunshine Coasts
|
|
1995
|
26.3
|
29.9
|
|
1998
|
15.2
|
22.6
|
|
2001
|
14.2
|
17.1
|
|
2004
|
17.0
|
12.9
|
Source: Gerard
Newman, 1998 Queensland Election, Current Issues Brief, no. 2,
Parliamentary Library, Canberra, 199899; Scott Bennett and Gerard
Newman, Queensland Election 2001, Current Issues Brief, no. 15,
2000‑01, Parliamentary Library, Canberra, 200001; and
Electoral Commission Queensland
Despite topping the Country/National Party
vote in many elections before the 1980s, the Liberal Party always
played second fiddle in the Coalition. This was due largely to the
malapportionment of seats, but it was also the result of
intimidation by their partner.(51) The major consequence
was that although the party was always strong in what has been
called their Brisbane beachhead, it could not break into the rest
of the state in any sustained way.(52) Over time, the
Nationals were able to build up party resources across the state in
a way denied to the Liberals. With the advent of a much healthier
Labor Party under Wayne Goss and Peter Beattie, the bottom fell out
of Liberal Party parliamentary representation due to the
concentration of its resources in Brisbane and the South East. In
2001, only three Liberal MPs were elected, so that the 2004
election gains were therefore a small step away from electoral
oblivion. The two new seats were both on the Gold Coast, giving the
Liberals three seats in that part of the state together with one
seat on the Sunshine Coast and one seat in Brisbane.
The political journalist, David Solomon,
claims that for the Liberal Party to regain any strength in state
elections it has to build on its Gold and Sunshine Coast seats and
break back into Brisbane.(53) These three areas contain
55 of the states 89 seats. Although the partys 2004 vote rose by
8.2 per cent in the Gold and Sunshine Coast electorates, and 5 per
cent in Brisbane, it is still well behind its potential vote. In
the state election, the Liberal vote in Brisbane electorates was
just 27.5 per cent, well behind the 43.2 per cent the party gained
in Brisbane electorates in the last Commonwealth election. Clearly,
many voters who supported John Howards Liberals later rejected the
Bob Quinn team. It is a widely-held perception that the crucial
voters are those dubbed the Beattie Liberals, defined by one
journalist as:
traditional Liberal voters who like Peter Beattie
and wont have a bar of a Coalition dominated by the National Party.
They favour Labor policies such as Beatties plan to stop
broad-scale tree clearing.(54)
If such voters exist, it suggests that while
the Premier retains his broad popularity in the electorate the
chances of the Liberal Party establishing itself as a strong force
in the Parliament appear to be slight. The problem is working out
how to regain support in state elections and then maintain that
support in both state and Commonwealth
elections.(55)
On the day after the election Lawrence
Springborg claimed satisfaction with the Coalition performance and
high expectations for the next election: If we [the Coalition] can
replicate in 2007 what we achieved last night then we will take
government. Springborg may be over-optimistic, for if the next
election saw an identical movement of votes the Coalition would
still be a long way from office.
On the other hand, Springborg also called for
the amalgamation of the National and Liberal parties, a comment he
was to repeat on a number of occasions in the days following: Ive
always supported the ultimate objective of having one strong,
focused conservative party, not only within Queensland but also
Australia-wide.(56)
Is there a case for the creation of a new
party? Some think so, and the Federal Member for Fairfax, Alex
Somlyay (LP), has pointed to the Country Liberal Party of the
Northern Territory as a model for a new Queensland conservative
party.(57) While such an argument is plausible, its
chances of success would probably be slight because:
the Liberal Party has long seen itself as the future of
conservative politics across the country, eventually free of any
need to govern in coalition with its rural colleague. The fact that
the Liberal Queensland vote has been higher than that of the
Nationals in the last three elections would strengthen such a
view(58)
the history of coalition relations in Queensland,
particularly since the Bjelke-Petersen years, has been one of
uneasy alliance at best and of outright hostility at worst. Many in
both parties would see the emergence of a new party as inherently
impossible to achieve simply because of the history of the two
parties, described by University of Queensland academic, Paul
Reynolds as marked by mutual distrust, policy differences,
personality problems, with sections of each party holding the other
in near permanent suspicion and contempt.(59) A reminder
of this came on 1 March 2004 when the Coalition was officially
disbanded in acrimonious circumstances(60)
to amalgamate would be to forget that the parties exist
to compete in two quite separate electoral contests, Commonwealth
and state. While the parties would prefer to perform equally well
in both, the fact that they do not is not, of itself, a reason for
amalgamation. For as long as the Liberal Party remains strong
enough in Commonwealth elections to consistently win a reasonable
share of House of Representatives seats (currently 15 of 27), the
party will not see any reason to amalgamate with the
Nationalsindeed it has long refused to share joint Senate tickets
in the state. It is clearly possible to win House of
Representatives seats even when the party is doing poorly in state
electionsas can currently be seen in New South Wales and
Victoria,(61) and
while they can still share national government, even the
federal Nationals would not necessarily see value in such an
amalgamation.(62)
An academic observer has suggested the Green
performance was a far cry from the success the party has enjoyed in
other states and must have been very disappointing for the
party.(63) It is possible, however, to see the result
quite differently. The Green performance in this election can be
seen as encouraging, positioning the party well for the next Senate
poll. This view is based on the fact that the average Green vote
per contested seat amounted to 8 per cent, a figure that would put
the winning of a Senate seat within reach were it to be achieved
across the State. In the last two national elections, Senate seats
have been won with a primary vote figure as low as 4.4 per
cent:
Senate minor party successes1998 and
2001
|
State
|
1998 election
|
2001 election
|
|
NSW
|
AD (7.4%)
|
G (4.4%)
|
|
Vic
|
-
|
AD (7.8%)
|
|
Qld
|
ON (14.8%)
|
AD (6.7%)
|
|
WA
|
AD (6.4%)
|
AD (5.9%)
|
|
SA
|
AD (12.4%)
|
AD (12.6%)
|
|
Tas
|
HAR (7.9%)
|
G (13.8%)
|
Source:
Australian Electoral Commission, Electoral Pocketbook,
Canberra, 2002.
If, as is usually the case, the sixth
Queensland Senate seat is won by a minor party at the next
election, the Greens therefore appear much better placed to win it
than either One Nation (Senator Len Harris) or the Australian
Democrats.
After an election in which remarkably few
seats changed hands, the parliamentary balance has been left pretty
much as it had been prior to polling day. The Beattie Government
will retain a strong hold over parliamentary business until the
next election, with the Nationals and Liberals still with a great
deal of ground to make up if they are to return to power.
1.
Issues of Queensland electoral reform arising from the 1998
State election and amendments to the Commonwealth Electoral Act
1918;
Legal, Constitutional and Administrative Review Committee Report
No. 23: May 2000,
Restoring IntegrityThe Beattie Good Government Plan for
Queensland (2001).
2.
Electoral and
Other Acts Amendment Bill 2002 Explanatory Notes, Queensland Explanatory Notes for Bills passed
during the year 2002, vol. 1, pp. 11924 passim.
3.
Newspoll Market Research, http://www.newspoll.com.au/home.html,
Australian, 22 January
2004.
4.
Rosemary Odgers, Promises are all very fineso is the
print, Courier-Mail, 28
January 2004.
5.
Ross Fitzgerald, Skilled leader set for another win,
Australian, 14 January
2004.
6.
Terry Sweetman, Greens ploy too cute, Courier-Mail, 23 January
2004.
7.
P. Williams, Beatties sympathy vote, Australian Policy Online, 15
January 2004 (http://apo.org.au/webboard/items/2004/01/00557.shtml)
.
8.
Newspoll, Australian, 22 January 2004.
9.
Competitive edge
missing in campaign, Courier-Mail, 31 January 2004.
10.
For the sugar industry issues, see Queensland Country Life, 22
January 2004.
11.
Tree-clearing ban angers bush, Townsville Bulletin, 19 January
2004.
12.
Sean Parnell, Steven Wardill and Rosemary Odgers,
Leaders open fire, Courier-Mail, 14 January
2004.
13.
Mike Steketee, If youre on to a good thing, Weekend Australian, 78 February
2004.
14.
Greg Stoltz, Theres no way theyre getting us out of
here, unless its in a box, Courier-Mail, 6 February
2004.
15.
Mike Kaiser, ALP cuts chances of vote protest,
Courier-Mail, 6
February 2004.
16.
Scott Bennett and Gerard Newman, Queensland Election
2001, Current Issues
Brief, no. 15, Parliamentary Library, Canberra, 200001, p.
11.
17.
Tony Koch, The Panel: week two, Courier-Mail, 24 January
2004.
18.
Rosemary Odgers and Steven Wadill, Odd couple even out
the load, Courier-Mail,
14 January 2004.
19.
Craig Johnstone, Libs may be looking at their last
chance, Courier-Mail,
26 January 2004.
20.
For a summary of Coalition policies, see Complete
election policy guide, Courier-Mail, 6 February
2004.
21.
Scott Murdoch, Beatties team too city-centric,
Australian, 26 January
2004.
22.
Ben Houston, Schools anti-farmer, Queensland Country Life, 29
January 2004.
23.
Rosemary Odgers, Call for a protest vote, Courier-Mail, 26 January
2004.
24.
Sean Parnell, Steven Wardill and Rosemary Odgers,
Leaders open fire, Courier-Mail, 14 January
2004.
25.
Tony Koch, Woeful Coalition is less than the sum of its
parts, Courier-Mail,
31 January 2004; see also Sean Parnell, The Panel: week three, 31
January 2004.
26.
Rosemary Odgers and Steven Wardill, Cherbourg meeting
puts child protection back on agenda, Courier-Mail, 2 February 2004,
Beattie says words twisted, Courier-Mail, 3 February
2004.
27.
Nancy Bates, Springborg: strong leader of a shambles,
Fraser Coast Chronicle
(Maryborough edition), 23 January 2004; see also Madonna King,
Party of not so many faces, Courier-Mail, 27 January 2004. For Springborgs poll
standing, see Newspoll, Australian, 22 January 2004.
28.
Stunt of the Day, Courier-Mail, 3 February
2004.
29.
Greens not buying new trees edict, Toowoomba Chronicle, 20 January
2004.
30.
See Wilderness Society, Labors land clearing policy most
significant environment decision in Queenslands history, undated,
and Labors wild rivers protection policy a very big step in the
right direction, 28 January 2004, both at http://www.voteenvironment.com.au/.
31.
Rosemary Odgers and Sean Parnell, Greens send out mixed
preference messages, Courier-Mail, 28 January
2004.
32.
David Nason, Pauline invoked for poll, Weekend Australian, 1718 January
2004.
33.
Zac Dadic, Queensland Parliamentary Library, personal
communication to author.
34.
Amanda Watt, Lurching from one crisis to next,
Courier-Mail, 15
January; Merri
Rose
survived too
long, editorial,
Courier-Mail,
16 January
2004.
35.
Michelle Hele and Steven Wardill, Hanson explains
demands, Courier-Mail,
5 February 2004.
36.
Jamie Walker and Greg Roberts, Candidates axing rocks
Coalition, Australian,
21 January 2004.
37.
Michael Madigan, Brawler takes fight up to his own
party, Courier-Mail, 28
January 2004.
38.
Sean Parnell, Swastika photo uncovers National
candidates youth role, Courier-Mail, 30 January
2004; see also Elicia Murray, National Party candidate coy on Nazi
link, Canberra
Times, 30 January
2004.
39.
Candidate in assault probe, Sunshine Coast Daily, 2 February
2004.
40.
Bully case candidate to stay on, Courier-Mail, 6 February
2004.
41.
Merryl Miller, One Nation hopeful now going it alone,
Toowoomba Chronicle, 30
January 2004.
42.
Latest gaffe shows cynical side of politics, editorial
Toowoomba Chronicle, 24
January 2004.
43.
For the photograph, see Sean Parnell, Run, swim,
dresslife as an election ironman, Courier-Mail, 21 January 2004,
http://www.couriermail.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5936,8446799%255E31457,00.html;
for a press comment, see No votes in sex appeal, Gold Coast Bulletin, 23 January
2004. For Linda Springborgs comment, see My Lawrence is not just a
pretty face: The sex effect, Gold Coast Bulletin, 22 January
2004.
44.
For the original article, see Jane Fynes-Clinton, Shes
(well) behind her man, Courier-Mail, 29 January 2004,
and for the photograph of Springborg and his family, Courier-Mail, 30 January
2004. See also Suzanne Lappeman, Leave Linda alone, Gold Coast Bulletin,
30 January 2004.
45.
Linda
battles Outback storm and gets the kids to school while city
critics carp about a womans role, Gold Coast Bulletin, 30 January
2004.
46.
Parties and elections, in Brian Galligan (ed.),
Australian State
Politics, Longman Cheshire, Melbourne, 1986, pp. 2202.
47.
Malcolm Mackerras had said that pendulum theory
suggested that the party would have a majority of 15 seats, Malcolm
Mackerras, Pendulum points to 7% swing against Beattie, Australian, 14 January 2004.
48.
Rosemary Odgers, Leaders miles apart in campaign style,
Courier-Mail, 6
February 2004
49.
Cath Hart, Sole survivor vows to keep the faith,
Courier-Mail, 9
February 2004.
50.
ibid.
51.
Peter
Coaldrake,
Working the System
Government in Queensland, UQP, St Lucia, 1989, p. 95.
52.
Margaret Bridson Cribb and D. J. Murphy, Winners and
losers in Queensland politics, in Margaret Bridson Cribb and P. J.
Boyce (ed.), Politics in
Queensland 1977 and beyond, UQP, St Lucia, 1980, p. 19.
53.
David Solomon, Blue skies beckon out of the gloom, Courier-Mail, 12 February
2004.
54.
Greg Roberts, Creaky Coalition, Weekend Australian, 1415 February
2004.
55.
For the Liberal Partys future, see Darlene Taylor, The
Queensland Liberal Party needs to sit up and face some facts, On
Line Opinion, 8 March 2004, http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=2052.
56.
Stephen Wisenthal, Springborg revives talk of a merger
with Libs, Australian
Financial Review, 9 February 2004.
57.
Greg Roberts, Creaky Coalition, Weekend Australian, 1415 February
2004.
58.
See for example, quote of former Queensland Liberal
vice-president, Graham Young, ibid.
59.
Paul Reynolds, The State of the Opposition Parties
198992, in Bron Stevens and John Wanna (ed.), The Goss Government. Promise and
Performance of Labor in Queensland, Macmillan,
Melbourne, 1992, p. 72.
60.
Sean Parnell, Selfishness dooms coalition to the
knackers yard, Courier-Mail, 2 March 2004.
61.
Ian Ward and Rae Wear, Queensland, in Marian Simms and
John Warhurst (ed.), Howards Agenda. The 1998 Queensland Election, UQP, St Lucia, 2000, p.
117.
62.
See for example, Nationals federal president, Helen
Dickie, quoted in Steven Wardill, Springborg plans new united
party, Courier-Mail, 14
February 2004.
63. Paul Williams, Finding victory in defeat,
Courier-Mail, 9
February 2004..