Research Paper, 2021-22

2019–20 Australian bushfires—frequently asked questions (updates)

Environment and Energy

Author

Dr Daniel May

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This paper updates and adds to the March 2020 Parliamentary Library research paper entitled 2019–20 Australian bushfires—frequently asked questions: a quick guide.

All links in this paper were valid as at 2 July 2021.

How much land was burned?

Establishing how much land was burned in a bushfire can be difficult. There are several factors behind this. Generally, bushfire analyses have tended to focus on individual bushfire events on the most catastrophic day, rather than an entire bushfire season which can stretch across several months across multiple states. Black Saturday in 2009, for instance, was the worst day of that bushfire season in Victoria. It comprised a number of separate fires (some ignited on the day, some already burning) and containment efforts lasted several months following the day, however, much analysis tends to be confined to the day itself. In contrast to this, the 2019–20 bushfires occurred across a range of fire regimes from July 2019 to late February 2020.[1]

In ascertaining the affected area of the 2019–20 bushfires, some media commentators and government agencies include the area burnt in northern Australia—which is problematic given the prevailing monsoonal fire regimes are quite different to those of south-eastern Australia.[2] It is typical for extensive parts of the tropical north (especially savanna) to burn (one paper estimates that 25–45 million hectares is burnt in northern Australia on an annual basis).[3] Indeed, the Northern Territory had a relatively average 2019–20 bushfire ‘season’.[4] It is, therefore, debatable whether northern Australia should be included in this assessment. If the 2019–20 bushfire season is being regarded on a continental level, then it would be appropriate to include figures from northern Australia. However, including such figures may overshadow the figures from eastern and southern Australia and distract from what made these particular fires unusual.

It is also important to note that discussions of area ‘burnt’ or ‘burned’ should reflect the nuances of Australia’s fire ecology. Entire ecological communities were burned and may face an increased risk of extinction (see ‘How many species have become endangered/extinct?’ below). However, many Australian species and ecological communities are surprisingly resilient to fire and may survive seemingly devastating bushfires,[5] while others require consistent specific patterns of fire to propagate.[6] Therefore, it may be inappropriate to refer to these areas as having been ‘destroyed’.[7]

Similarly, bushfires may not have uniform effects over an area, due to differences in topography, vegetation, moisture content, fire history, and wind.[8] There can be some ambiguity around the terms used to describe fires and their variable impacts on ecological communities, for example, ‘fire intensity’ usually refers to the physical properties of a fire (that is, the amount of energy it released) and, due to the above concerns, many fire ecologists may use the term ‘fire severity’ to describe the effect of this energy on an ecological community.[9]

For the 2019–20 bushfires, the Commonwealth Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements ‘struggled to obtain consistent burnt area data on a national scale’, and found estimates of area burnt that ranged from 24.3 to 33.8 million hectares.[10] There were inconsistencies and gaps in data between different state and territory jurisdictions.[11] Some estimates included unburnt patches within larger burnt areas. In tropical savannas and arid grasslands, fire mapping relied on satellite measurements, while in temperate forests, fires were mapped by a combination of satellite measurements, aerial surveys, and ground crews.[12] The Commonwealth Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment subsequently developed the National Indicative Aggregated Fire Extent Datasets in 2020, which estimated 39.8 million hectares were burnt in the 2019–20 fires.[13] An alternative analysis, relying solely on satellite data, estimated that 30.38 million hectares was burned across the entire Australian continent.[14]

Regardless of the uncertainties over the total extent of area burned, it is likely that the impact of the 2019–20 fires on Eucalyptus forests was unprecedented in Australian written history,[15] and burnt an unprecedented percentage of any continental forest biome.[16] 25% of NSW’s native forest was burnt in the 2019–20 bushfire season, as was 19% of Victoria’s native forest.[17] A study utilising satellite data beginning from 1988 found that, while the proportion of forest burnt at high severity was not higher than previous fires recorded, the ‘sheer size of the 2019–20 fires means that an unprecedented area of south-eastern Australia experienced high-severity fire in a single season’.[18] The authors speculated that the 2019–20 bushfires may have transformed between 15% and 23% (28–43 thousand hectares) of south-eastern Australia’s temperate rainforest to an alternative state, ‘requiring centuries for recovery, if recovery is at all possible under south-eastern Australia’s drying climate’.[19] The Gospers Mountain blaze, ignited by lightning in the Blue Mountains of NSW, may have been Australia’s largest forest fire from a single ignition point—even before it joined with other massive blazes.[20]

However, area burned is not necessarily indicative of the relative level of damage caused by a bushfire. For instance:

The total burned area and number of fires in 2019/20 were not abnormal for South Australia. The burned area and number of fires were below or close to average values, 765,719 hectares and 1,152 respectively. Number of fires and area burnt are usually dominate [sic] by remote fire in arid parts of South Australia which have minimal impact on human lives and are not normally actively suppressed by fire agencies. However due to the proximity to higher density population and associated economically valuable land uses, houses and lives lost were above average for SA—more than 10 times higher for the houses lost and 4 times higher for the lives lost.[21]

How many species have become endangered/extinct?

The 2019–20 fires had both direct and indirect effects that will have had impacts on the vulnerability of species. Direct effects include the impact of radiant heat, smoke inhalation, and stresses associated with fleeing and coping with passing fires.[22] Indirect effects include post-fire impacts such as increased soil erosion and runoff into waterways, reduced availability of, and increased competition for, food resources, lack of shelter from predators, lack of suitable resources for nesting, and destruction of fencing which previously limited the range of invasive species.[23] The impact of these effects upon species will be dependent upon species traits (such as if a species is dependent upon lengthy intervals between fires to re-seed) and other characteristics (such as if a species has limited range).[24]

It may be some years before the full scale of the ecological damage of the 2019–20 fires becomes apparent. Few studies available at the time of writing incorporated ground-based or observational surveys. Such surveys are expensive and time-consuming, and the Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted data collection.[25]

In January 2020 Sussan Ley, the Federal Minister for the Environment, asked the Threatened Species Commissioner to convene a Wildlife and Threatened Species Bushfire Recovery Expert Panel (Expert Panel) to identify species in most urgent need of intervention and to provide advice on prioritisation of recovery actions.[26] The Expert Panel prepared a range of reports which utilise remote sensing and modelling and should thus be regarded as providing a broad overview to be supported by later studies.

The Expert Panel identified 486 species requiring immediate action to assess impacts and support recovery.[27] Such taxa were known to occur in fire‑affected areas and had ‘more than 80% of their range burnt, or were listed as Endangered or Critically Endangered under the EPBC Act or state/territory listings, or were listed as HIGH risk under two or more of the criteria assessed’.[28] These include species like Forrester’s Bottlebrush (Callistemon forresterae) and Grey Deua Pomaderris (Pomaderris gilmourii var. cana) which are described as being at ‘imminent risk of extinction’ because they were already exposed to other significant threats and ‘all of their known or modelled range has been burnt’.[29]

The fires burned fire-sensitive ecological communities, including half of NSW’s warm temperate and dry rainforests, one-quarter of NSW’s subtropical rainforests, and over 20% of NSW’s alpine vegetation.[30] For example, the Blue Mountains in NSW contain 4,105 hectares of temperate highland peat swamps on sandstone, a landform which can take centuries to form and recover from fire.[31] Of those wetlands, a preliminary analysis showed that 2,139 hectares (52%) were burnt; 1,472 of which was subjected to a very high severity burn where the upper portion of the peat was incinerated.[32]

The Expert Panel also assessed animal species that require action. Their most recent list identified 119 animal species as requiring ‘urgent management intervention’—this includes reptiles, crayfish, mammals, birds, and other species.[33] Of these 119 species, the Panel describes some as being at ‘imminent risk of extinction’ as ‘most of their range has been burnt, they were already highly threatened, and they are susceptible to fire and its after effects [sic]’.[34] This includes species such as the Kangaroo Island Dunnart (Sminthopsis aitkeni) and the Blue Mountains Water Skink (Eulamprus leuraensis).[35]

Amid concerns that invertebrate data is poorly known and poorly knowable,[36] the Expert Panel also released a list of 191 invertebrate species confirmed or estimated to have been severely affected by the fires, including spiders, snails, bees, and other species.[37] Using different criteria, the Australian Museum assessed the area burned in the fires in NSW and estimated that there were 29 species of invertebrates which only had occurrences within those areas, with another 46 species having at least half of their known occurrences within the burnt areas.[38]

What caused the 2019–20 Australian bushfires?

Any assessment of the cause of the 2019–20 bushfires must acknowledge that a fire requires multiple factors to burn. Fire scientist Ross Bradstock conceptualises four ‘switches’ that must be activated for bushfire to occur: biomass production, its availability to burn, fire-conducive weather, and ignition.[39] This section will focus upon ignition.

Ignition

There are some factors which complicate any assessment of the causes of ignition for the entire Black Summer. For instance, many fires merged over time, including the Gospers Mountain fire in the Blue Mountains, which burned 512,000 hectares, but also joined with other fires for a total burn area of 908,231 hectares.[40] Furthermore, the entire season comprised many thousands of individual ignitions, some of which had little impact. The NSW Bushfire Inquiry noted that, during the 2019–20 fires, there were 11,774 fires across NSW alone. The Inquiry, therefore, selected only the most significant fires (due to their size, scale or impact) to analyse.[41] Similarly, the terminology used to record ignition cause is not uniform across agencies and law enforcement, and there can be considerable room for confusion around the use of terms such as ‘deliberately lit’ and ‘arson’.[42]

The NSW Bushfire Inquiry stated that ‘Lightning was the suspected, immediate cause of ignition for the vast majority of the largest and most damaging fires across NSW in the 2019–20 season’.[43] The NSW Rural Fire Service (RFS) reported the causes of 32 significant fires to the NSW Inquiry, accounting for roughly 4 million hectares of area burned in the 2019–20 fire season.[44] Of these 32 fires, 24 were started by lightning, accounting for 92% of the sampled burn area.[45] Nevertheless, some damaging fires were deliberately lit or started accidentally. For instance, a man was jailed for three and a half years for deliberately lighting the Ebor Guyra Road bushfire in November 2019 which burnt through 22,800 hectares.[46] The Orroral fire which burned 80% of Namadgi National Park in the ACT was accidentally started by heat from an Australian Defence Force helicopter’s landing light.[47]

What inquiries were conducted?

The House of Representatives Standing Committee on the Environment and Energy resolved on 5 December 2019 to conduct an inquiry into vegetation management (especially hazard reduction burning).[48]

Following an escalation of the bushfire disaster over December 2019 and January 2020, the Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements was established on 20 February 2020.[49] Air Chief Marshal Mark Binskin (Retired), Dr Annabelle Bennett and Professor Andrew Macintosh were appointed as Commissioners.[50] The House Standing Committee made way for the Royal Commission and wound up its inquiry on 26 February 2020.

The Royal Commission released a number of publications including five background papers (covering cultural burning practices, hazard reduction burning, constitutional issues, prior inquiries, and disaster responsibility arrangements) and four issues papers (covering the constitutional framework for state of emergency declarations, health care arrangements, the role of local government, and firefighting and emergency services personnel and equipment).[51] The Royal Commission released its final report on 30 October 2020.[52] The Commonwealth Government released its response on 13 November 2020.[53]

The Senate Finance and Public Administration References Committee established an inquiry into Lessons to be Learned in Relation to the Australian Bushfire Season 2019–20.[54] The Committee is required to report by 2 December 2021; it published a substantive interim report on 7 October 2020.[55] The Government response to this interim report was published on 6 May 2021.[56] The Committee re-opened submissions on 11 December seeking further information on hazard reduction, the 2019–20 bushfire season, mitigation infrastructure and land-use planning, insurance issues and aerial firefighting.[57] At time of writing, the Committee has held eight public hearings and received 187 submissions.[58]

State and territory inquiries

Various state governments also announced reviews, most of which were targeted and did not seek to encompass a broad array of issues or call for wide public participation.

What were the health impacts from the bushfires?

In general, bushfires can cause a range of health impacts beyond death. These can include burns from radiant heat, dehydration and heat exhaustion, smoke inhalation, and the immediate and ongoing effects from trauma—both physical and psychological.[68] The hazard from bushfire smoke and air pollution is of particular concern.[69] In addition to containing pollutants such as carbon monoxide and ozone, bushfire smoke can contain a large amount of small particulate matter—including fine (under 2.5 microns; abbreviated to PM2.5) and ultrafine (under 1 micron) particulate matter.[70] This can disperse far from the fire itself, cause eye irritation and, when inhaled, can penetrate into lungs and enter the bloodstream, inducing physiological responses such as inflammation.[71]

There is evidence to show bushfire smoke causes increased visits to doctors and hospital admissions for respiratory symptoms, particularly for asthma, bronchitis, dyspnea (shortness of breath), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.[72] There are also concerns around the effects of bushfire smoke on the cardiovascular system, although evidence to date is inconsistent.[73] Similarly, there is partial evidence of PM2.5 exposure having negative impacts on neurological functions and birth outcomes.[74] However, there are significant knowledge gaps, particularly around the long term effects of bushfire smoke exposure.[75]

The 2019–20 bushfires caused repeated exposure to substantial amounts of bushfire smoke across many weeks. For instance, Canberra residents experienced the worst air quality in the world on several occasions over the summer, and more than one third of all summer days in the ACT were rated to have ‘hazardous’ air quality.[76] Smoke from the bushfires affected population centres across south-eastern Australia and had noticeable impacts as far away as New Zealand.[77]

Hospital data from NSW shows a large increase in the number of patients presenting with respiratory problems over the summer, and pharmacy sales figures for inhalers used to treat asthma (such as Ventolin or Asmol) nearly doubled in particularly polluted weeks in the ACT.[78] While detailed epidemiological data is not yet available, some researchers estimate that bushfire smoke was responsible for 429 premature deaths, 1,138 hospitalisations for cardiovascular problems, 2,092 hospitalisations for respiratory problems, and 1,532 presentations to emergency departments for asthma.[79] The techniques for this kind of estimation are well-established.[80] It should also be noted that such estimates do not account for the costs of less severe asthma episodes. For example, many asthma sufferers may self-manage their symptoms by following official advice to minimise exposure to smoke.[81]

In addition to these impacts from smoke, there were significant increases in calls to mental health crisis support hotlines during the fires, and an additional Medicare item was introduced to allow specific access to mental health services.[82] While the full impact of the 2019–20 bushfires on mental health will also not be known for many years, previous bushfire disasters in Australia have had long-term impacts on those directly affected. Survivors of previous bushfires have reported high rates of depression, substance abuse, and post-traumatic stress disorder.[83]

How much was donated to charities, and what issues arose?

The Australian Charities and Not-for-profits Commission (ACNC) reported in October 2020 that more than $640 million had been raised from the public for relief and recovery efforts.[84] This included $240 million to the Australian Red Cross, $108 million to the NSW RFS, and $90 million to NSW Wildlife Information Rescue and Education Service Incorporated (WIRES).[85] These totals do not include the funding allocated by the Commonwealth or state governments. For instance, the National Bushfire Recovery Agency indicates that the Australian Government allocated more than $2 billion in recovery funding.[86]

Significant public criticism arose around the distribution of donations by charities. For instance, media reporting and social media commentary implied that money was stockpiled, spent needlessly on administration, or was being distributed too slowly.[87] The ACNC Commissioner, Gary Johns, observed these criticisms revealed a low degree of public understanding about how charities operate and the governance regimes surrounding them.[88]

In response to these concerns, the ACNC reviewed the experience of three well-known charities during and after the fires: the Australian Red Cross Society (Red Cross), the Trustee for NSW Rural Fire Service & Brigades Donations Fund (NSW RFS Trust), and WIRES. The ACNC noted that not all assistance is required immediately: for instance, the Red Cross reported they had received over 850 new requests for aid since 30 June 2020.[89] The ACNC also noted that the growth in donations was extremely rapid and required some charities to swiftly adjust their administrative arrangements: for instance, WIRES received $91 million in 2019–20, roughly 27 times more than its donations in the previous year.[90]

A particularly notable case highlighted how public expectations clash with the laws governing charities. Comedian Celeste Barber launched an appeal in early January 2020 explicitly labelled for the NSW RFS Trust which raised $51 million, far exceeding her original target of $30,000.[91] As the appeal rapidly outgrew its target, Barber suggested that donations raised in this campaign could also go towards the families of bushfire victims and to support bushfire agencies outside NSW.[92] However, the NSW RFS Trust was legally restricted on how it could spend the money, confirmed by a NSW Supreme Court ruling.[93] Further, the NSW RFS Trust could neither control messages over what this money could be spent on, or communicate directly with donors, leading to ‘a significant difference between donor expectations and the programs NSW RFS Trust could implement’.[94]

The high public attention and sympathy for victims of the bushfires also came with other issues, as some sought to divert funds via fraudulent fund-raising, while others made fraudulent claims from charities or sought to conduct cybercrime activities against charities.[95] The ACNC attributed a nearly 70% increase in the number of reported scams in 2020 to suspected bushfire scams.[96]

What should the 2019–20 fires be called?

Australia has evolved a tradition of naming particularly disastrous bushfire events—as environmental historian Tom Griffiths has written, ‘there are enough “Black” days in modern Australian history to fill up a week several times over’.[97] Victoria alone has endured Black Thursday (1851), Black Friday (1939), and Black Saturday (2009). As the fires continued to burn in February 2020, Prime Minister Scott Morrison referred to the ‘Black Summer’.[98] Criticising this term on the basis that the fires began in winter,[99] Griffiths suggested the term ‘Savage Summer’, while global fire historian Stephen Pyne suggested the ‘Forever Fires’.[100]

Further resources

In the 2020–21 Budget, the Commonwealth Government established the National Recovery and Resilience Agency as part of its response to the Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements.[101] This Agency replaces the National Bushfire Recovery Agency that had been established on 6 January 2020 to lead and coordinate ‘the national response to rebuilding communities affected by the 2019–20 bushfires’.[102] The National Recovery and Resilience Agency will ‘support communities impacted by disaster’ and ‘deliver initiatives to reduce risk and lessen the impacts of future shocks’.[103]

The NSW Bushfire Inquiry provided a detailed explanation of the climatic drivers behind the bushfires in NSW including a strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole and negative Southern Annular Mode.[104] Victoria’s Inspector-General for Emergency Management reported that ‘climate change contributed to Australia’s extraordinary 2019–20 fire season through cumulative long-term changes in climate’.[105]

The Monash Climate Change Communication Research Hub has released an analysis of Australian newspaper reporting on the 2019–20 Australian bushfires.[106]

The Australian National Audit Office has released a performance audit report into administration of the National Bushfire Recovery Agency.[107]