Introduction
In Budget October 2022–23,
the Australian Government projects
a
large and persistent structural deficit (p. 81), against a backdrop of looming
overseas recessions, natural disasters at home, war in Europe, a slowdown in
China, an energy crisis, high inflation and rising interest repayments on
national debts. The Budget depends heavily on personal
and company income taxation, comprising on average 66% of all revenue over
the forward estimates. (The remaining 34% revenue consists of the goods and
services tax, excise and customs duty, superannuation, some minor indirect
taxes and non-tax revenue.) The Australian Government confirms its election
promises to initiate a multinational tax integrity package and extend existing
compliance programs (p. 7) to raise revenue by addressing an existing tax gap.
This paper discusses major ‘tax gap’ measures in the Budget
and points out that although addressing the tax gap is a welcome start, it alone
won’t be sufficient to repair the structural deficit.
What is the ‘tax gap’?
The Australian
Taxation Office (ATO) defines a ‘tax gap’ as:
an estimate of the difference between
the amount of tax the ATO collects and what the ATO would have collected if
every taxpayer was fully compliant with tax law.
Tax gaps are about measuring what is not directly observable
– what people have not told us.
Our latest tax gap estimates show that for 2019–20, we
received $446.4 billion or 93% of the $479.8 billion we would collect if
everyone was fully compliant with tax law.
We collect most of this tax voluntarily, reflecting a system
that is operating well. This means that the overall tax gap for 2019–20 is
estimated to be $33.4 billion, or 7% of the tax that should have been reported.
Figure 1 illustrates the scale of the tax gap, relative to
all collected taxes, according to ATO calculations. To be clear, the tax gap
does not include revenue foregone in the form of ‘tax
expenditures’, that is, tax concessions or exemptions applying to
particular activities or classes of taxpayer (for example, the exclusion of
personal homes from capital gains tax).
Figure 1: Comparing taxation
revenue collected and tax gap in 2019–20 ($b)
Source: Parliamentary Library calculations based on numbers
reported in ATO
2021-22 annual report, p. 64.
Causes of tax gaps identified throughout Budget
October 2022–23: Budget paper no.2 include: tax avoidance practices used
by multinational entities (MNEs), large Australian businesses and wealthy
individuals; individuals’ non-compliance; shadow economy activities; and tax
practitioners providing poor or unlawful advice. These behaviours impact all
Australians, undermining the integrity of Australia’s tax and welfare systems,
and creating an uneven playing field.
Major Budget receipt measures
addressing the tax gap
Table 1 quantifies measures in Budget
paper no. 2 that address the tax gap. Overall, the measures are
expected to raise $6.6 billion in tax receipts over the forward estimates. In
other words, they are expected to reduce 20% of the 2019-20 tax gap.
Table 1 Major receipt measures
addressing the tax gap ($m)
|
2022–23
$m
|
2023–24
$m
|
2024–25
$m
|
2025–26
$m
|
Total $m
|
Multinational Tax Integrity Package |
|
|
|
|
|
– Element
1: Amending Australia’s thin capitalisation rules |
- |
- |
370 |
350 |
720 |
– Element
2: Denying deductions for payments relating to intangibles held in low or no
tax jurisdictions |
- |
40 |
110 |
100 |
250 |
– Element
3: Improving tax transparency |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
Subtotal |
0 |
40 |
480 |
450 |
970 |
Extending ATO and Tax Practitioners Board Compliance
Programs |
|
|
|
|
|
– Personal
Income Taxation Program |
- |
151 |
287 |
236 |
674 |
– Shadow
Economy Program |
- |
404 |
714 |
941 |
2,059 |
– Tax
Avoidance Taskforce |
277 |
535 |
729 |
1,309 |
2,850 |
– Program
to enhance tax system integrity |
- |
9 |
25 |
48 |
82 |
Subtotal |
277 |
1,099 |
1,756 |
2,533 |
5,665 |
Grand Total |
277 |
1,139 |
2,236 |
2,983 |
6,635 |
* The nature of the measure is such that a reliable estimate
cannot be provided. - Nil.
Source: Australian Government, ‘Part
1: Receipt Measures’, Budget Measures: Budget Paper No.2: October 2022–23,
Table 1 Receipt Measures since the 2022 PEFO, pp. 4-5.
Assuming the $33.4 billion tax gap estimate in 2019–20 is
still correct as of current, Figure 2 illustrates that 80% of the gap (or $26.7
billion) remains unaddressed even after applying the Budget measures to address
the gap.
Figure 2 An illustration of
remaining $26.7b tax gap after applying the measures ($b)
Source: Parliamentary Library calculations based on numbers
reported in ATO
2021–22 annual report, p. 64 and Budget
Measures: Budget Paper No.2: October 2022–23, Table 1 Receipt
Measures since the 2022 PEFO, pp. 4-5.
Closing the Tax Gap: Multinational
Tax Integrity Package
The Multinational
Tax Integrity Package (MTIP) delivers on the Australian Government’s
election promise, as well as Australia’s long-term commitment to implement the
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Base Erosion and Profit
Shifting (BEPS) 15 Actions.
BEPS refers to the tax planning strategies used by MNEs to exploit gaps and
differences between tax rules of different jurisdictions internationally. The
OECD conservatively estimates the global
annual
revenue loss due to BEPS at US$100 to $240 billion. Following
the
G20 finance ministers’ request in 2013 to address the BEPS issues in a
coordinated and comprehensive manner, the OECD released a final BEPS Actions
package in 2015. (See Appendix A for a status on the
Australia’s BEPS plan implementation.)
The MTIP is expected to reduce the tax gap by around $970
million over the forward estimates, which is lower than the election estimate
of $1.9
billion (ECR167). The downward revision is mainly
due to the Treasury’s taking account of the substituted accounting periods for
the change in the thin
capitalisation rule (MTIP element 1) and the cumulative
effect of other minor changes in policy specifications such as revising down
the corporate tax rates from ‘below
24%’ (p. F-242) to ‘less
than 15%’ (p. 16) for MNEs claiming
deductions relating to intangible assets (MTIP element 2).
The MTIP consists of three elements, which are expected to
commence on or after 1 July 2023. Although Treasury completed a
public consultation on the package in September 2022, final details are yet
to be released. The ATO provides a
summary of the proposed changes for each
element.
MTIP Element
1 amends Australia’s existing thin capitalisation rules to align with OECD’s
best practice approach under Action
4. It affects most MNEs operating in Australia currently subject to thin
capitalisation rules with at least $2 million in debt deductions.
Australia’s thin capitalisation rules limit ‘debt
deductions’ for interest expense and borrowing costs where the debt-to-equity
gearing ratios must be within the prescribed debt limits. The maximum debt
allowed is calculated by one of three tests, namely, the ’safe
harbour’ (an objective level of debt an entity can use to fund the assets
used in its Australian operations), ‘arm’s-length’,
and the ‘worldwide
gearing’ (the Australian operations of certain entities can be geared up to
the level of gearing of the entity’s worldwide group). Entities are allowed to
choose the test that gives the highest deduction and is the easiest to apply.
In 2014, the
OECD reported (p. 19) some thinly capitalised
MNEs (whose assets are funded by a high level of debt and little equity) shift
their profits to lower tax countries and minimise taxable income by way of
excessive interest payments to foreign affiliated companies. To address the
issue, the OECD BEPS initiatives may tighten the current rules, affect the debt
limits, and lead to a lowering of tax deductions in Australia by a combination
of narrowing the scope of arm’s length debt limit and reducing the safe harbour
ratios.
As
the ATO explains, the ‘safe harbour’ test is expected to be replaced with
an earnings-based test so that: debt-related deductions exceeding 30% of
earnings before interests, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA, a
measure of profits) will be disallowed and carried forward for up to 15 years;
the ‘worldwide gearing’ test will be replaced with an earnings-based group
ratio rule; and the ‘arm’s-length’ test will be amended to only allow an
entity’s third-party debt deductions (while disallowing related party debt
deductions).
MTIP Element
2 denies significant global entities (SGEs)—with global revenue of $1
billion or more— from claiming deductions for payments relating to intangible
assets and royalties held in a low or no tax jurisdiction, which have either ‘a
tax rate of less than 15%, or a tax preferential patent box regime without
sufficient economic substance’(p. 16). In
the 2021–22 Budget, the Coalition Government announced it would establish a
patent box tax regime in Australia and introduced a bill to the Parliament.
The bill
lapsed with the dissolution of the 46th Government. The Australian
Government confirmed its intention to legislate this regime by not removing the
patent box measure from the Budget
March 2022–23 (pp. 22-24).
Element 2 addresses problems involving MNEs shifting profits
of highly mobile intangible assets to tax havens. This profit shifting trend is
exacerbated by the increasing digitalisation and globalisation of the economy. The
related Action
5 introduces new rules to constrain eligibility requirements for a patent
box, including a requirement for sufficient economic substance in the
jurisdiction with the intangible assets. For example, deduction claims for
Patent Box expenses will be denied in a jurisdiction (for example, a tax haven)
where economic substance is lacking.
MTIP Element
3 improves tax transparency by introducing reporting requirements for
relevant companies to enhance the tax information they disclose to the public. SGEs
will be required to prepare for public release of certain tax information on a
country-by-country basis (Action
13) and a statement on their approach to taxation, for disclosure by the
ATO. Australian public companies (listed and unlisted) will be required to
disclose information on the number of subsidiaries and their country of tax
domicile.
The October Budget package also complements another
Australian Government election announcement in supporting the OECD’s ‘Two-Pillar
Solution’ for a global 15% minimum tax, and ensuring profits of the largest
multinationals (such as Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Apple) are taxed
where the products or services are sold. This Budget does not contain a ‘Two-Pillar
Solution’ measure.
Closing the Tax Gap: Domestic measures
Certain ATO and Tax
Practitioners Board compliance programs are extended with additional
government funding. These programs are briefly discussed below.
Personal Income Taxation Program
This program is expected to close the tax gap by $674.4
million over the forward estimates. It will focus on key non-compliance areas such
as individuals overclaiming deductions and misreporting income. The ATO’s
Second Commissioner re-raised the issues in
October 2022 (p. 4):
we estimate that individuals are correctly paying about 94%
of the tax they should be at lodgement … [Work related expense] claims account
for almost $4 billion of the individuals not in business tax gap – or 44%. So
many claims are an optimistic characterisation of personal expenses as work
related, while others are even more creative claims … [The ATO estimates] the
portion of the tax gap for 2018–19 attributable to unreported income was over
$1 billion … Currently rental income and deductions contributed over $1 billion
to the net tax gap. In the 2020–21 tax return (as of 30 June 2022), over 2
million rental property owners declared over $45 billion in income and about
$43 billion in expenses. The Random Enquiry Program that helped determine this
estimate showed that 9 out of 10 returns reporting net rental income required
adjustment. This is startling and clearly something we need to address.
Shadow Economy Program continuation
The program is expected to reduce the tax gap by $2.1
billion over the forward estimates.
The ‘shadow
economy’ refers to dishonest and criminal activities that take place
outside the tax and regulatory systems. It is complex and multi-faceted.
Examples of shadow
economy behaviours include tax and identity fraud, dealing in illegal drugs
and tobacco, and money laundering.
In 2016, it was estimated that the size of the shadow
economy had likely doubled since
2012 from 1.5% of GDP to around 3% of GDP, or approximately $50 billion (p.
7). For that reason, the Government established the Black Economy
Taskforce in 2016 to combat the shadow economy. The Taskforce released the Black
Economy Taskforce Final Report in 2017. In the 2018–19 Budget, the Coalition
Government responded to the report with a
whole-of-government program for tackling the shadow economy and the
implementation of the Taskforce’s recommendations is ongoing.
Closing the Tax Gap: Domestic and
International combined
Tax Avoidance Taskforce
The Tax Avoidance
Taskforce is expected to reduce the tax gap by $2.8 billion over the
forward estimates. It will achieve this by ensuring large businesses and
wealthy individuals pay the right amount of tax in Australia. It focuses on
targeting promoters of tax avoidance who support or promote illegal behaviours
and arrangements. This Taskforce works with partner agencies and other
jurisdictions to protect the integrity of the tax system.
Established in
2016, the program has helped
collect a total of $12.7 billion from 1 July 2016 to 30 June 2021. Recent
audit cases in the public domain involve companies such as Apple, BHP, Chevron,
Facebook, and Google. In some cases, tax revenues from these entities in Australia
have increased up to 5 times. The taskforce ‘will
pursue new priority areas of observed business tax risks, complementing the
ongoing focus on multinational enterprises and large public and private
businesses’. (p. 12)
Conclusion
Tax
gap estimates measure the performance of the tax system in the past. An
efficient tax system should minimise the tax gap. The current Budget measures
addressing the gap are important. However, as the Budget
strategy and outlook: budget paper no. 1 October 2022–23 (Chart 3.2)
projects the cash deficit to be around 2% of GDP from now to 2032–33, addressing
the tax gap alone is insufficient, and the Australian Government is likely to
need to utilise more ‘tools’ to fix the deficit problem.
On Budget day, the Treasurer
confirmed (p. 15) that ‘tax needs to be part of the [national conversation
about Budget repair] going forward’. He
further explained (p. 15) that:
what we've done in this Budget is we've built a foundation of
a more sustainable Budget, but there's more work to do and that will involve
ongoing spending restraint, it will involve trimming spending where we can,
targeted investments and also tax reform.
Tax reform is an economic and social process that requires
the Parliament to reach a political consensus on the trade-offs between the
criteria for a good tax system (economic efficiency, equity, simplicity,
flexibility, sustainability and policy consistency). This Budget seems to be a
catalyst starting that conversation.
Appendix A: Progress
summary of Australia’s implementation of the BEPS 15 Actions
BEPS Action |
Status |
Action 1: Address the tax challenges of the digital
economy |
In progress |
Action 2: Neutralise the effects of hybrid mismatch
arrangements |
Implemented |
Action 3: Strengthen controlled foreign company
(CFC) rules |
Implemented |
Action 4: Limit base erosion involving interest
deductions and other financial payments |
In progress |
Action 5: Counter harmful tax practices more
effectively, taking into account transparency and substance |
Implemented |
Action 6: Prevent treaty abuse |
Implemented |
Action 7: Prevent the artificial avoidance of the
permanent establishment status |
In progress |
Actions 8–10: Assure that transfer pricing outcomes
are in line with value creation |
Implemented |
Action 11: Establish methodologies to collect and
analyse data on BEPS and the actions to address it |
In progress |
Action 12: Require taxpayers to disclose their
aggressive tax planning arrangements |
In progress |
Action 13: Re-examine transfer pricing
documentation |
Implemented |
Action 14: Make dispute resolution mechanisms more
effective |
Implemented |
Action 15: Develop a multilateral instrument to
modify bilateral tax treaties |
Implemented |
Note: The information in this table is correct at the
publication date. The information may change as Australia progresses with the
implementation of the remaining outstanding BEPS actions.
Source: Australian Taxation Office, Base
erosion and profit shifting.
All online articles accessed October 2022