6.1
If the current patterns of settlement continue, the majority of the population will reside in the major capital cities by 2056. In the absence of any intervention, Australia will find itself heading towards a ‘megacity’ future. Under this scenario, Sydney and Melbourne are projected to become megacities with populations of approximately 10 million each. In the same time period, Perth and Brisbane are projected to reach the scale of Sydney and Melbourne today. As cities become more crowded, stress on transport, infrastructure and housing, among other amenities, will become more pronounced.
6.2
This can be avoided if the potential in Australia’s regional towns and communities is fully realised. These communities offer enormous potential to provide both a quality and a style of life which have proven to be elusive in a bustling megacity.
6.3
Currently, Australia’s population is concentrated in our five major cities. Pre-COVID-19 projections, which assumed high rates of international migration for national population growth, suggested that the Australian population would grow from 24.6 million to between 28.3 and 29.3 million persons by 2027.
6.4
While not of the same magnitude, the population of regional Australia is also expected to grow by around 810,000 people, or 10 per cent, in the next decade.
6.5
This growth can occur organically. Planning, however, can ensure that the right efforts are directed at the right time and in the right way to deliver maximum benefit. A master plan for Australia’s regions would influence development of the nation’s regions, and the distribution of the nation’s population, bringing together the themes discussed in this report.
The role of master planning
6.6
The Regions at the Ready report cited planning as ‘one of the most fundamental elements to any concerted regional development effort’. Many inquiry participants expressed similar sentiments regarding the importance of planning to the development of regional Australia.
6.7
In regional development, inclusive master planning considers not only all of the elements required to enhance the economic and social circumstances of a region, but also the interaction between regions and their place in the broader state and national contexts.
6.8
The Regional Australia Institute (RAI) argued that planning policies are some of the most potent levers available to government to guide and shape settlement patterns.
6.9
The Planning Institute of Australia (PIA) noted the role of plans in realising goals for the development of regional centres which ‘… will require a coordinated national approach to inform regional plans that speak to each other and a vision for Australia’.
6.10
Well-planned regional towns can offer many of the amenities of city living without their attendant disadvantages. Regional Development Australia (RDA) Yorke and Mid North noted:
Forward focussed planning on regional centre and township growth is supported through the master planning process. This has certainly occurred in at least three of our major townships within the Yorke and Mid North region. Long-term plans that consider future growth needs and anticipated demand are required.
6.11
While master planning is typically associated with governments, the University of Newcastle emphasised the essential role that regional universities play in regional and city planning:
It is critical that policy makers consider the role of universities in regional planning. This role is often capital and labour intensive, particularly in periods of planned growth. The University of Newcastle will have a central role in delivering Newcastle’s Greater Newcastle Metropolitan Plan, which is the key planning document for the Newcastle Metropolitan Area.
6.12
PIA supported research to improve the evidence base used to inform planning, to ‘help understand the environmental, social and cultural drivers of population change and settlement’. This work would incorporate identifying and assessing the parameters, assumptions and benchmarks used in regional plans.
6.13
The NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment noted the role of planning in promoting regional resilience:
2020 more than ever has drawn into sharp relief the importance of having robust and adaptable long-term strategic plans for regions––land use plans that set a strategic vision for regions and give clear and certain direction on how to realise that vision and cater for future housing, jobs and infrastructure needs, vibrant centres, healthy environments and greater resilience against natural disasters and pandemics.
6.14
The East Gippsland Shire Council was also supportive of master planning and summarised its advantages in terms of its contribution to the delivery of:
freight transport that provides efficient connection between regional settlements and their key markets;
education and training opportunities that align to businesses and industries in the region;
high speed and high bandwidth telecommunications infrastructure; and
clean, reliable energy sources including solar, wind and waste energy harvesting.
Recent regional population movements
6.15
Until recently, Australia’s population has been very mobile, with approximately 40 per cent of people moving to a new place of usual residence every 5 years.
6.16
Work undertaken for the Australian Treasury during 2020 found that population movement restrictions implemented as part of the response to COVID-19 have resulted in decreased movement between states but greater intra-state migration. Furthermore, in the quarter to March 2021, capital cities experienced a record quarterly net loss of 11,800 people from cities, ‘the largest quarterly net loss on record’.
6.17
This migration has been attributed to three key factors: the increased attractiveness of regional areas, stronger labour market conditions outside the major capitals (with the exception of Queensland and Tasmania), and the return of young adults to their homes coupled with an increased prevalence of remote work.
6.18
The renewed focus upon regional Australia as a desirable destination to which to migrate makes it imperative that robust planning processes be implemented.
A plan for regional Australia
6.19
The continued success of the development of Australia’s regions will not occur by itself. The Committee found that there needs to be an articulation of objectives, implementation mechanisms and accountability for regional Australia and its place in the wider national context.
6.20
Developing the regions goes beyond investment in infrastructure enabling an easy commute to a larger city. It encompasses identifying and building upon the unique advantages of a place. Demographer Bernard Salt was supportive of making regional Australia an attractive area to live:
I'm not interested in getting talent from a remote town into Melbourne or into Sydney; I'm interested in developing that remote town so that is has sovereignty, independence and offers a quality of life not to everyone, but to a particular market that would be attracted to live there. That is a better option than saying, 'Look, there are five big job centres worthwhile on the Australian continent, big cities, and what we need is to actually drain real talent from the bush into the city and operate it that way.' That is not the Australia that I want to see going forward and I'd be surprised if others did, too, when you think it through.
6.21
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) concluded that the concentration of population or economic activity ‘is neither necessary nor sufficient for success’, and that ‘equity, resilience and fiscal health’ are fostered through broader-based growth.
6.22
PIA is supportive of integrated regional planning as a means of influencing Australia’s future growth patterns:
We need a national vision for how we want Australia to grow, and we need everyone to be speaking the same language when we talk about regional planning. Without a national vision to create what we think would be a sensible future … without asking these questions about how the different states and territories are doing their regional planning, there simply is no vision and no way to actually deliver an alternative settlement pattern.
6.23
The Strategic Regional Growth Expert Panel Report emphasised the necessity for coordinated planning across all levels of government:
…without a national vision for Regional Australia and greater integration across all three levels of government there is a high risk that governments will operate in silos, duplicating effort and missing important development opportunities.
6.24
Current issues with congestion and housing affordability in our major cities, combined with the nation’s economic reliance upon population growth, suggest that there is an urgent need to encourage alternative patterns of settlement. A potential means of addressing the difficulties associated with population concentration is to actively encourage movement to our regions.
…we believe that the current trajectory of Australia's planning means that we are potentially sleepwalking towards a nation of three megacities.
6.26
RAI argued that strategic planning can deliver the benefits of larger settlements without their accompanying deficits, but observed that while the diversity offered by regional Australia ‘is one of its most attractive features’, this diversity also ‘can present many challenges in planning for its future’.
6.27
A plan for regional Australia could also assist with overcoming the difficulties associated with jurisdictional borders. The ACT Government wrote of the ‘collaborative frameworks’ in place to facilitate growth in the ACT and the surrounding region:
There has been strong commitment by both NSW State and local Governments to collaborate with the ACT Government to address key regional issues around economic growth, urban planning, public transport and service planning.
6.28
The NSW Government noted changes to its planning system which have bolstered the role of state-wide strategic planning:
Recent changes to the New South Wales planning system, some brought on more quickly as a response to COVID, have strengthened the role of strategic plans. The changes are transitioning New South Wales to what we are calling a strategy led planning system, a system that aligns the state and local governments in much more joined up and coordinated decision-making for better outcomes for communities.
6.29
RDA South West, while somewhat sceptical about the effectiveness of master planning, nonetheless advocated for its use as a guidance tool:
There is a great deal of planning literature to demonstrate that master planning communities is generally not successful. However, it is good practice to identify areas that should not be developed (for example valuable agricultural land or areas of significant environmental value). Master planning can also act as a useful guideline rather than an inflexible set of regulations, and where regulations are imposed it would be helpful to pre-approve land usage in industrial areas for example.
Targets and reporting
6.30
While inquiry participants acknowledged the importance of planning, PIA noted the lack of a consistent approach and purpose across the 57 Australian regional plans. It found that fewer than 50 per cent of these plans identified targets for future housing needs and only 13 of them contained explicit targets for job growth:
…the lack of a national vision on growth and an inconsistent settlement planning framework [were identified] as fundamental flaws in our nation’s capacity to achieve balanced growth.
6.31
Historically, migration policy has served as a determinant of de facto targets for overall population levels. In the future, however, migration targets could also contain a breakdown of the types of settlement in regional areas including skilled migrants, humanitarian arrivals and jobs moved to regional Australia as a result of decentralisation.
6.32
These population targets would vary according to a region’s circumstances and be determined by its local advantages and aspirations. Ideally, these factors would then be taken into account in state and territory plans which, in-turn, would be reflected in a national plan.
6.33
This approach is supported by PIA which recommended a coordinated approach to regional planning to ensure that the information, assumptions and targets used as the basis of plans are consistent and available across all jurisdictions.
6.34
Targets are of scant value unless there is some accountability attached to them. Mandated annual reporting of regional settlement outcomes from external migration could assist in informing future policy to encourage regional settlement.
6.35
The current work being undertaken by the Commonwealth on population planning could incorporate general and specific regional targets and allow for reporting against them.
The role of governments in planning
6.36
All three tiers of government are responsible for planning to drive the development of Australia’s regions.
6.37
Regional planning is primarily a state responsibility; however, in the case of routine matters, planning authority can be delegated to local governments. While Australia’s planning system enables states to respond to their unique circumstances, it also can impede the attainment of national objectives.
6.38
Councillor Sarah Stanley of the Shire of Collie said there was a need to ensure ‘harmony between the community needs, wants and expectations and the major initiatives that happen’ and to provide agency to regional communities by involving them in the decision-making process.
6.39
The Australian Institute of Architects (AIA) maintained that each tier of government must work together to enable our regions to thrive:
In this environment government has a key role to play in setting the right political and policy environment to support Australians to adapt and thrive. All governments must work together to deliver high quality health, education, community and infrastructure services, and there exists a particular challenge to maximise outcomes and ensure the effective and efficient delivery of services in regional Australia. If not done well, there will be ongoing negative impacts on regional wellbeing.
Federal Government
6.40
The Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Cities and Regional Development stated the Commonwealth Government’s objectives are ‘… to help regions realise their economic potential and build vibrant communities where people want to work, live and raise their families.’ It supports these objectives through a variety of means, including ‘support for stronger local leadership and collaboration to make the most of local opportunities’.
6.41
As part of this remit, the Australian Government assists in planning through its support of the 52 RDA Committees:
Each RDA committee has developed a Regional Plan which outlines priorities for the region and guides them in strengthening their communities.
6.42
The Australian Government’s Planning for Australia’s Future Population maps out a blueprint for the quantum and distribution of the nation’s population growth. An important element of this plan is acknowledging the interrelated elements of managing growth in our cities and investing in our regions.
6.43
On a broad level, the document identifies elements such as Regional Deals, the Decentralisation agenda and Regional provisional visas as examples of Commonwealth investment in regional Australia. While the document makes an important start, there is a need to articulate a more comprehensive vision and implementation plan for the population of regional Australia.
6.44
One of the complexities associated with considering Australia’s regions within the context of a broader plan for Australia is the multiple lines of responsibility:
For too long, population issues have been fragmented across governments, reducing the effectiveness of population planning.
6.45
Population planning work undertaken by both the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet and the Department of the Treasury seeks to:
…inform policy through research, publications, insights and advice; engage and collaborate with governments, academia, business and the public; and enrich the evidence base by drawing out knowledge and policy insights from data.
6.46
Mr Nathan Stribley from Urbis was supportive of greater collaboration between the jurisdictions and the Australian Government:
…we're actually quite keen on the idea of a more coordinated approach between both state-level governments and the Commonwealth in terms of how regions are planned in terms of their growth aspirations, the data to support that and enforce that plan-making, and also the coordination and sharing of information and alignment of plans in terms of the timing of their production but also the input to those becoming more consistent.
6.47
In acknowledgement of the need for widespread collaboration, the RDA network has implemented changes with the aim of attaining its goals for regional Australia:
Reforms to the RDA network in 2017-18 have resulted in greater collaboration across RDA Committees and a renewed focus on working with key regional stakeholders to deliver high quality economic development outcomes.
A National Architect
6.48
In addition to planning, the AIA also emphasised the benefits of state-based government architects to provide advice to government in relation to architecture and urban design. They recommended that this role go further with the appointment of an Australian Government Architect who would act as:
…an expert advisor to support an integrated approach to built environment policy and practice across all tiers of government and to engage meaningfully with industry to advance public outcomes.
6.49
The AIA also elaborated that a national position of government architect could coalesce aspirations for Australian regions and cities. Such a position would provide advice to government on policy, planning of infrastructure and procurement to ‘ensure quality outcomes can be delivered in place.’
6.50
The AIA further asserted that good design and architecture leads to improved liveability, and that ‘well designed, liveable places become centres of social and economic activity creating sustainable, long-term returns on initial investments’.
State and Territory Governments
6.51
While the implementation of plans typically occurs at the local government level, state and territory governments are usually responsible for the broad oversight of plans including regional plans.
6.52
The Queensland Government considered responsibility for regional development as being shared across governments:
Effective regional development policy requires a partnership approach between all levels of Government, with local and State and Territory governments best placed to determine regional economic priorities. The Australian Government should play a supporting role, and not pursue independent regional development strategies that are counter to state and regional initiatives.
6.53
The Queensland Government’s Strategy for Social Infrastructure encourages:
…best practice in the way service agencies plan, design, locate and use the state’s social infrastructure, such as our hospitals and schools. It is adopting a place-based approach for social infrastructure delivery which will see further mixed-use precincts, co-location and multiple-purpose facilities with easy access to public transport.’
6.54
The Tasmanian Government reported that its resources are spread thinly due to its unique population characteristics and that they ‘cannot compete with the capacity of other larger states in conducting significant strategic planning for its major urban centres’. They too see the Australian Government as having a significant role to play in the development of regional Australia, particularly in supporting strategic planning.
6.55
The NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment noted that its planning work is informed by Commonwealth activities:
We've looked to some of the engine industry work that the Federal Government's identified, to look at the potential growth areas in space and defence, medical manufacturing and pharmaceuticals. Those are a couple of examples. We've used those signals to help us identify where the greatest opportunity for the enterprises might be in New South Wales and understand the digital infrastructure, as well as physical infrastructure and the land availability, in order to meet those.
6.56
The Victorian State Government program, Streamlining for Growth is managed by the Victorian Planning Authority:
It aims to provide support and capacity building for councils in regional Victoria and metropolitan Melbourne. Through the provision of targeted funding and staff resources, including development facilitation officers, the program assists to unblock delays in the strategic planning system, and speed up the delivery of projects that provide employment growth and/or increased housing choice, diversity and affordability.
6.57
An assessment of the program found that it reduced the time for projects to pass through the development chain with an ‘… estimated holding cost saving of approximately $190 million and an overall benefit-cost ratio of 8:1’.
6.58
The South East and Tablelands Regional Plan (2017) was developed by the NSW Government and, with input from the ACT Government, articulates a joint approach to cross-border planning:
It seeks to facilitate sustainable growth and optimise economic outcomes and provides a unique and compelling model for effective, collaborative and sustainable regional development planning.
6.59
The ACT Government noted the role that integrated planning has played in developing the region:
As a geographical, political and economic hub, the Canberra Region is a model for a successful regional centre. Integrated approaches to planning, infrastructure, transport and service delivery support new opportunities for investment and maximise the urban renewal benefits to the region.
Box 6.1: Hunter Regional Plan
The Hunter Regional Plan is an overarching framework intended to guide the NSW Government in the development of land use plans, development proposals and infrastructure funding decisions to 2036.
The underlying driver of planning in the Hunter region is the need to diversify its economy in order to secure its long-term resilience. While the economy is currently focused upon coal, the fact that it is a finite resource and vulnerable to competition from renewables has created the need to consider alternative investment, business attraction and employment opportunities.
The Plan was prepared following extensive consultation and contains Local Government Narratives which articulate each council’s priorities and inform the Plan’s medium and longer-term actions.
Local Governments
6.60
Ultimately, it is at the local government level that the effects of national, state and regional plans are felt most keenly. The Australian Local Government Association emphasised that ‘… it is vital that any regional program or initiative fostering economic development or master planning must involve local government’.
6.61
The City of Greater Bendigo focused on the importance of ‘… clear and consistent direction and commitment from State and Federal Governments’. Further, it stressed the role of direct grant funding as an opportunity to develop capacity building in ‘… planning systems to ensure communities are safe’.
6.62
The City of Greater Bendigo referred to the collaborative nature of the city’s draft Economic Development Strategy, which aims to deliver:
… greater liveability, more inclusive growth, better jobs for a sustainable future, raising skill levels and tackling climate change because it impacts economic growth and impacts the greatest on the most vulnerable. Collectively eight leading organisations have accepted these are mutually owned problems and the respective CEOs will sign off on the Strategy and accept the challenge of jointly resolving them. The organisations are:
Bendigo and Adelaide Bank
Be. Bendigo (Bendigo Business Council)
Dja Dja Wurrung Clans Aboriginal Corporation;
Bendigo Education Council
Loddon Campaspe Regional Partnership
6.63
The Central NSW Joint Organisation foresees opportunities for agencies at both the state and federal levels to use the NSW Community Strategic Planning process:
Imagine a regional NSW that is well informed about their demographics, health, education, environment, economic indicators and recidivism to empower them to make better decisions for themselves and their communities. This is achievable through a more collaborative and accessible approach to data leveraging the Community Strategic Planning process.
6.64
The City of Townsville also advocated for integrated planning in order to achieve its goals for the region:
This specifically requires more investigation into the opportunities to support increased employment and urban population growth. It will require tailored growth planning for each major centre and its surrounding region. In Townsville’s case, planning must build upon the Townsville City Deal and consider infrastructure, migration incentives, and long-term job creation and value-adding in strategically important industries like the services sector, technology and advanced manufacturing.
6.65
The resourcing required to develop appropriate plans can serve as a barrier to effective planning. The East Gippsland Shire Council noted the critical importance of master planning for the growth of regional towns while ensuring that their unique features are preserved. However, it also noted that assistance is often required for local governments to undertake the task:
Given the nature of the task and the typically more limited resources of regional local governments that have the lead in such planning, it is important that assistance and support be provided for local master planning. This is particularly the case where townships may be affected by complex issues such as bushfire risk or coastal erosion and inundation.
Australian Government levers to influence settlement patterns
6.66
The locations of Australia’s cities and towns have largely been determined by colonial settlement patterns. Over the last 70 years, these patterns have concentrated Australia’s population to its major cities.
6.67
PIA noted the following regarding Australia’s population distribution:
There is a paradox at play in Australia’s settlement patterns, while most of our capital cities struggle with congestion and population growth, the converse is true in many regional communities, where declining populations and economic growth threaten their long term future.
6.68
The Government has a number of levers at its disposal to facilitate settlement outside our major cities. Business SA noted the need for population to drive regional business advocating for Commonwealth policy to encourage people to settle in regional South Australia:
Population growth is a key matter for South Australian regional and rural communities. Business SA has been a very long-term advocate in terms of the work that we've done on this, in terms of South Australia's regional centres. But, emanating from the federal government, we would see what we would describe as positive policy discrimination in favour of driving people into the regions of South Australia as not only having been a priority in previous years but a greater priority now in 2020.
Decentralisation
6.69
A number of inquiry participants stated that decentralisation should be targeted and specific to the context of different communities. Jobs, small business and skilled labour have all been particularly highlighted as areas necessary to result in the effective decentralisation of the public and private sectors.
Certainly education is important. Industry efficiency is important. Having regional Australia having access to fast internet is important. I think all those things play a part in decentralising. We can't continue to grow Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane forever. There's a real opportunity for us to think about jobs in regional Australia in quite a different way.
6.70
Charles Sturt University proposed several actions open to government to facilitate decentralisation:
Government can support by providing enabling infrastructure to assist efficient access to markets and can incentivise through taxation policy.
6.71
Similarly, RDA Limestone Coast (RDALC) noted the potential for Commonwealth Government policies to enhance the attractiveness of our regions:
RDALC encourages the Commonwealth Government to proactively investigate what can be done to encourage workers from our cities to move to regional Australia. Thought, from both the State and Commonwealth Governments, must be given to incentives such as regional first home owners grants, regional relocation grants, stamp duty savings and business/corporate relocation incentives.
6.72
The ACT Government noted that :
NSW and Victoria agreed to decentralise the national capital from its temporary home in metropolitan Melbourne to a sparsely populated regional area north of the Murray River. Canberra itself is the single greatest example of a successful decentralisation model, unparalleled anywhere in the world.
6.73
The Regions at the Ready report identified the following potential advantages associated with decentralisation:
bring government services closer to the people;
better align government agencies to specialist regional areas and resources;
tap into specialist skills and experience of people living in regional areas; and
reduce operating costs for government.
6.74
RAI acknowledged the role of both public and private sector decentralisation in growing our regions:
…part of that story has to be a public sector story, because that relocation, that ability to maintain a regional management structure in a regional location for a state based or a national organisation … it's a really important part of the fabric of those communities. If there are those higher-level managerial jobs, and it's often not entirely public sector, we know that really helps to build the confidence and the diversity of people who are willing to stay and grow their careers in those places.
6.75
Charles Sturt University suggested two ways in which public service careers could be grown in regional Australia:
The APS employment cap is lifted in regional areas, thus allowing Departments to put on more staff than they currently have so long as the new staff are hired and work in regional areas, and
All hires (most of which are replacing attrition) in the public service must have consideration given to being placed in the regions.
6.76
Similarly, RDA Kimberley proposed that decentralisation could be encouraged in the following way:
…making some initial regional posting mandatory could encourage long term decentralisation.
6.77
Decentralisation is not limited to moving government agencies out of capital cities. The private sector is also a significant employer nationwide. The Regions at the Ready report found that:
Private sector decentralisation is often dependent on the decisions of government that set the environment for private sector movements.
6.78
Charles Sturt University also noted the link between public and private sector decentralisation:
Locating a government institute or agency at or near a regional university may act as a nucleus for the future growth, and the development of an innovation precinct. Other players may be attracted, including from the private sector. Synergies between the Commonwealth agency and a university’s teaching and research profile could help guide co-location.
Decentralisation in Germany
6.79
The German constitution features specific reference to its commitment to reduce regional disparities and to improve regional economic structures.
6.80
The German state Baden-Württemberg, located in South-West Germany, is a highly industrialised region, with more than one third of workers engaged in manufacturing and construction. The Baden-Württemberg Government attributes its success to the Mittelstand. This collection of near ‘cottage industry’ means of production have developed the region’s economic strength and high disposable income, while the state focuses heavily on investment in innovation (5.6 per cent of the state’s gross domestic product is invested in research and development).
Box 6.2: The German ‘Mittelstand’
Germany has adopted a decentralised approach to planning, which is apparent in the successes of its small and medium sized businesses, known as the ‘Mittelstand’. These firms have annual revenue of 50 million euros or less, and a maximum of 499 employees and comprise approximately 99 per cent of German companies.
Mittelstand firms tend to have a number of defining attributes and benefits:
focus on working in niche markets in which they specialise, competing through value-add rather than price cuts and working off their own equity, reducing reliance on external capital;
central family culture which draws an economic tie between generations and businesses, resulting in many firms struggling to find successors as they refuse to look outside of the family;
decisions informed by long-term results, particularly centred around employee continuity with very low turnover of approximately 3.2 per cent each year;
innovation and product quality have been a key driver to the success of the Mittelstand, with public private partnerships in research and development areas commonplace alongside encouragement of workers’ innovation’;
geographic competitive clusters have formed (see the case study below), in which businesses compete locally and internationally with quality forming a major part of their competitive edge rather than price;
German capitalism is based on the notion of a ‘social market economy’ which centres around socially oriented economic partnerships between employers, employees and unions;
focused investment in workforce training, with employers supporting apprentices who working three or four days at work, and the remaining one or two days at school learning theory;
technology and market knowledge at forefront of business strategy.
Place-based migration policy
6.81
While COVID-19 restrictions led to an effective halt on external migration to Australia, population remains an essential element of thriving regional towns.
6.82
The Centre for Population Growth, Department of the Treasury, stated that the pandemic will have significant impacts on Australia’s overall population:
Australia's population growth is set to be the lowest in more than 100 years due to COVID-19, falling from 1.5 per cent in 2018-19 to 1.2 per cent in 2019-20 and to 0.6 per cent in 2020-21. This is driven by a significant fall in net overseas migration, which is assumed will fall from 232,000 in 2018-19 to 154,000 in 2019-20 and to 31,000 in 2020-21. It's unclear where population growth will be heading over the medium and long term as you can appreciate from the volatility. Fertility is expected to fall temporarily in the near term as uncertainty associated with COVID-19 leads to households delaying having children.
6.83
Nonetheless, with an ageing population and young people leaving regional areas to work and study, a number of submissions noted the role of migration in supporting regional areas. Regional Cities Victoria noted the role of various migration schemes in providing skilled workers for regions and also contributing to regional population growth.
6.84
Similarly, the Western Australian Government stated the importance of place-based migration policy:
Regional migration policy settings have the potential to have specific implications for Western Australia, due to the State’s unique circumstances, economic growth and diversification efforts, as well as social policy objectives. For these reasons, it is requested that the Commonwealth Government consult with the Western Australian Government in the development of migration related policies.
6.85
The Department of Agriculture noted the change in visa schemes which support the agricultural industry:
…because many of those businesses rely on the Seasonal Worker Program and the Pacific Labour Scheme as well as on working holiday-makers. The government has extended visa arrangements for those people to really help facilitate those people continuing to work in Australia. I think that's been very well received by the various businesses in those sectors who rely on that labour, and it's been a good example of cooperation between departments across the government to make sure that that labour remains available.
6.86
Similarly, the Australian Hotels Association & Tourism Accommodation recognised the crucial role that skilled migration plays in meeting labour and skills shortages in the hospitality industry. It recommended that the Skilling Australians Fund levy be halved for both small and large businesses in recognition of the considerable costs already incurred by business to gain access to overseas labour.
6.87
The National Ethnic and Multicultural Broadcasters’ Council noted that while regions benefit from migrants, factors such as ‘a culture of welcome, job opportunities, and access to community, health and education services’ influence the willingness of migrants to move to the regions.
6.88
The University of Newcastle welcomed the simplification of the definition of ‘regional’ for skilled migration purposes that now includes Newcastle, Wollongong and the Central Coast.
6.89
Mr Michael Fels of WA Farmers said that external migration was unlikely to solve the shortage of people in regional areas in the long term and that we ‘need to be focusing on making it attractive for Australians to move into the regions.’
National population policy
6.90
An essential component of planning is the distribution of people. A number of inquiry participants noted the lack of a comprehensive national population policy. Australia’s population has long been determined in the form of aggregate national population targets tied to migration policy with some specific schemes designed to encourage regional migration.
6.91
The Australian Government’s Planning for Australia’s Future Population acknowledges the need for better planning to realise the benefits of increased population:
If Australia is to continue to make the most of population growth, we must meet the needs of future generations. We must manage the rate of growth through the migration program and plan and invest in the infrastructure and services needed in the future.
6.92
Urbis cited the lack of a ‘consistent overarching national view of Australia’s growth’ and stated that ‘there is no coherent guidance on how regional and local plans should respond to population and employment changes.’ It recommended that the Commonwealth Government:
…oversee coordination and assist with the development of economic development and master plans for each of Australia’s major regional centres and their catchments.
6.93
PIA suggested that a comprehensive strategy be developed prior to formulating more detailed regional strategies.
6.94
The Centre for Population in the Department of the Treasury reported that work on a National Population and Planning Framework was being undertaken by all levels of government:
Through the framework, the centre is committed to delivering a better understanding of population issues and the implications through publishing an annual population statement that contains information on actual and expected population trends, and aims to provide data and a narrative that addresses how the Australian population scenarios have changed. We have a population plan that will be published every three years, and it's developing collaboration with state, territory and local governments.
6.95
Urbis expected that the National Population and Planning Framework would improve population data and forecasting. This initiative was also noted by the Townsville City Council who lauded ‘… the Federal Government’s renewed focus on regional population analysis’.
6.96
The Centre for Population stated that while its population projections are used to inform government policies, there remain limits to their capabilities which are beyond their control:
… one area we're trying to build on—getting better sources of data to actually be confident in those projections. We're not inclined to produce projections in which we don't have confidence in their accuracy and their validity. For us, our primary importance is having high-quality projections at whatever geographic scale we're able to produce them at. So … at the regional scale there is some data limitation which stops us from doing some of that.
6.97
The NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment noted the role of national population indicators in their work:
We also look to the signals about population growth, population distribution and how that might be set or incentivised by the federal government.
6.98
A national population policy would bring together long-term strategy and whole-of-government planning, and provide the architecture for a large‑scale, bold articulation of the vital role regional Australia could play in addressing national-scale demographic issues.
Promoting the development of regional centres
6.99
The evidence presented to the inquiry suggests that the effective promotion of the development of regional centres is dependent upon a combination of government policies and local actions.
6.100
Research undertaken by the Evocities campaign found that there was scant understanding of the opportunities offered by regional cities:
Importantly, one of the key outcomes of that research was the fact that there was a very low level of awareness in that marketplace about what regional cities actually offered as a potential home for people and an opportunity for relocation.
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PIA also called for detailed analysis of the factors which will require attention in order to shift Australia’s growth patterns:
…economic, environmental and social implications of a nation dominated by three megacities compared to a balanced regional centre settlement pattern … [to] identify the types of decisions, investments and interventions that would be necessary to deflect Australia’s growth trajectory in ways that amplify revealed benefits of the scenarios and avoid their costs.
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Urbis noted the role played by larger regional centres:
They play an important role in Australia’s national context, they provide a diverse range of employment opportunities; act as major trade access points; provide important health care, education and government services; and, supply general amenities to a wider rural catchment.
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RDA South West suggested that reducing government investment in urban transport infrastructure will encourage the attractiveness of the regions:
Given that multi-billion transport investment achieves very little in respect of urban sprawl and simply delays the inevitability of further investment, it is a harsh reality that the only way to decentralise cities is to disregard commuter demands. … In conclusion, the government can promote re-direction to regional areas by doing very little for cities (in a transport sense) which makes regional Australia increasingly liveable and attractive.
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The City of Wagga is taking a number of active steps to grow its population:
The City of Wagga Wagga currently has a plan for growing to 100,000 people in the next 20 years. RDA Riverina believe that this goal is achievable and even necessary in order to support business growth in the region. As well as attracting people to the Riverina through ‘Country Change’, RDA Riverina will continue to work with others to assist growth through Skilled Migration, Refugee Resettlement and encouraging our youth to stay in the region through programs like Grow Our Own.
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RDA Barwon South West noted the anticipated benefits of the 10 year Geelong City Deal which include encouraging private investment to develop the tourism sector:
The investment into the Twelve Apostles region is expected to generate investment opportunities, ranging from luxury accommodation, eco lodges, to glamping and camping. There are five private sector projects that have potential to be delivered within five years generating a combined investment of $174– $215 million and potentially creating an additional 1,300 direct and indirect FTE jobs during construction and 800+ FTE on-going local jobs.
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The City of Kalgoorlie-Boulder highlighted the need for planning to deliver the services which are integral to retaining its population:
Currently, the City has issues in retaining its population due to increasing Fly-In, Fly-Out (FIFO) practices, and losing skilled workers to metro and regional areas around the country. A lot of funding decisions are contingent upon population, therefore making planning and service delivery difficult for Local Government who also services neighbouring Goldfields population.
Box 6.3: Evocities
Evocities is a campaign currently involving the cooperation of four inland regional cities in NSW—Albury, Bathurst, Dubbo and Tamworth—which share common interests. They are all strong in liveability factors including robust economies, affordable housing, and superior employment opportunities.
The campaign is supported by an electronic system whereby enquiries by those seeking to relocate are contacted by the cities nominated by the enquirer. Information regarding services relating to services such as education and relevant contacts such as real estate agents is provided to aid their decision-making.
While there has been minimal marketing during the COVID-19 period, nonetheless, there continues to be an ongoing increase in inquiries.
Hub and spoke growth
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The hub and spoke model of regional development, in which larger regional cities act as service hubs for smaller satellite towns, was presented in a number of submissions.
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Regional Capitals Australia (RCA) and RAI partnered to map hub and spoke networks in regions, finding that hubs are highly connected to their spoke towns through two forms of ties:
Structural: physical infrastructure connections such as road and rail; and
Functional: role and service connections such as health or education.
Box 6.4: Wagga Wagga, a growing regional hub
Wagga Wagga is a regional town in the Riverina of NSW, approximately 450 kilometres from Sydney and Melbourne. The town plays an important role within the Riverina, supporting a regional university, hospital and airport. It has a growing population, currently at around 65,200, and has been identified by the NSW Government as a ‘Growth Centre’, with some of the most significant growth rates for regional centres within the state. Tertiary education, freight and logistics and defence have been highlighted as key employment sectors for the region.
The services provided by smaller towns, such as retail, banking and finance, machinery repairs, professional services, education, health, and cultural activities, have consolidated to larger regional towns and centres. Wagga Wagga in the Riverina (New South Wales) is an example of these changes.
Wagga Wagga has sufficient industry, infrastructure and connectivity that it presents an excellent opportunity for decentralisation from metropolitan areas. This was successfully demonstrated in 2016 through the relocation of Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation (which trades as AgriFutures).
I think something we always celebrate as a success in terms of decentralisation is the moving of what is now AgriFutures to our Wagga Wagga campus. There were other comments about some of the decentralisation initiatives, but that has been very successful. They've integrated really well into the campus. I know from talking to them that they felt they were able to reinvent themselves and actually be closer to a lot of regional industry constituents through a move to a university campus.
The town has an ambitious growth plan to reach a population of 100,000 within the next 20 years, which RDA Riverina supports and views as ‘necessary in order to support business growth in the region’. Presently the Wagga Wagga City Council continues to provide land for housing development, resulting in affordable housing in the township and surrounding shires.
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The growth of regional cities, which act as ‘service hubs’ for their region, is supported by RCA. RCA reasons that this model facilitates ‘access to essential infrastructure, services, business, employment and education’. As such, regional cities can play a ‘capital city’ role for their surrounding towns and localities.
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This view is supported by the City of Kalgoorlie-Boulder who wrote:
It is strongly recommended that the Federal Government actively encourage, promote and implement growth in Regional Australia by incentivising people to work and live regionally, reducing red tapes to attract investments in Regional areas, and fast track funding deals to Regional Capitals.
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In a similar vein, the Tasmanian government wrote of the disadvantage associated with the relatively smaller size of projects in regional capitals:
It is also critical that regional areas are able to access Australian Government infrastructure funding without being disadvantaged by the relatively modest capital requirements of projects in regional capitals, compared with major national capitals. Minimum project thresholds should recognise and allow for applications for infrastructure in regional capitals.
Potential new developments in regional Australia
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A possible means of addressing the difficulties associated with urban population concentration is to actively encourage movement to our regions and away from congested urban centres.
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RDA Logan & Redlands emphasised the need for the strategic placement of residential developments in relation to existing and known planned infrastructure such as the Inland Rail currently under construction.
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Mr Frank Reale suggested:
… diverting the growth of capital cities into neighbouring satellite cities, located about 100km from the capital, and spaced in a fan formation with the capital at the centre.
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These satellite cities would be developed in waves on greenfield sites adjacent to existing towns, with each series of cities accommodating up to 1 million residents. As each wave becomes fully populated, a further wave would spread out a further 100km.
In this way cities would never become too large, yet they would be large enough to sustain modern basic services such as good hospitals and tertiary educational facilities, as well as cultural features such as museums, art galleries, theatres, and sporting stadiums. As the waves spread out, the regions would be developed.
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Mr Reale contended that each city would develop over the course of 20-30 years in a series of stages or modules, comprising approximately 40 square kilometres and hosting up to 110,000 residents. Each stage would be connected by rail and a series of ring and radial roads to enable travel times between stages of 30 minutes. Mr Reale envisioned high efficiency combined cycle gas turbines providing electric power and water recycling to reduce water use.
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RDA Logan & Redlands referred to two planned satellite cities under development which provide attractive housing and a community lifestyle with an increasing number of facilities. It observed, however, that such developments can fail to plan for adequate transport infrastructure for those travelling out of these areas to work. It concluded that new large-scale developments must ‘… provide local employment and adequate transport corridors to enable work/life balance’.
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Not all inquiry participants, however, were supportive of new settlements. For example, Urbis contended that government development resources should be directed towards growing existing regional towns that are well-connected.
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Urbis concluded that because of the role played by market forces in settlement patterns, government efforts should be directed toward growing well-connected existing larger regional capitals rather than establishing new towns. It also recommended that government regional development expenditure be informed by priorities identified in regional strategic plans.
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RDA Kimberley noted the following regarding new settlements:
The focus should be on supporting, renewing and progressing existing townships rather than developing new ones. At present, most regional towns are static at best or shrinking. The downsizing of regional towns is in part driven by increased FIFO, lack of adequate infrastructure in recreation, health, education and employment opportunities to create long term stable population growth.
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The City of Townsville also advocated for directing investment towards growing established regional centres:
There are clear opportunities to achieve better economic outcomes for both capital and regional cities by investing in the growth of established urban centres in Australia’s regions.
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The East Gippsland Shire Council noted that ‘infrastructure service provision to the greenfield case studies is more expensive because of the need for new physical “headworks” and community services’, and argued that government focus be directed upon regional areas which are not major centres:
… much of the focus of state and federal governments has been on the large regional cities and there are significant success stories from this work. Now it is important that the support extend to the next tier of regional towns and smaller regional communities, so they are not left behind.
Committee comment
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The Committee found that master planning can enhance the liveability of our regional towns, address some of the challenges associated with living away from major capitals and also provide a viable alternative to congested city living.
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Liveability is vital for our regions. Improving or increasing services might not attract many residents to regional Australia, but a lack of adequate services will certainly deter people from moving away from cities.
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The Committee notes the inconsistency among regional plans reported by PIA and agrees that the Commonwealth should play an increased role in the coordination and oversight of regional planning.
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The Committee agrees that all levels of government have a role to play and levers to deploy in planning for our regions and the potential to influence population settlement patterns.
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The lack of integration between all levels of planning means that it often occurs in a vacuum which fails to take broader economic and social objectives into account.
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A national population plan would encompass a holistic vision for our regional towns and their role within the broader context. The Committee welcomes the establishment of the Population Centre within Treasury to inform policy and work towards this national plan.
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The Committee encourages continued cooperation and collaboration among all levels of government. The continued development of regional Australia would benefit from the establishment of a national agency to develop and implement policies and programs, including a national population policy. The agency would also have a role coordinating the efforts between Commonwealth, State, Territory and local governments to assist in the development of regional Australia.
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This agency would set targets and objectives for regional development, and report on these annually to Parliament through a statement by the Minister responsible for regional Australia.
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The Committee recommends that the Australian Government establish a dedicated authority with responsibility for:
development and implementation of policies and programs, including a national population policy incorporating the Commonwealth’s vision for regional Australia; and
setting objectives and targets for regional population growth and the development of regional Australia.
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The Committee recommends that the appropriate Minister make an annual statement to the House of Representatives detailing progress towards meeting the Commonwealth’s objectives and targets for regional population growth and the development of regional Australia.
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Regional capitals play an important role in regions, comparable to major capital cities but without similar resources. Increased support is necessary for these centres to contribute to the continued development of regional Australia, to provide an attractive alternative to capital cities and to reduce the congestion of our major cities.
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There is limited support for the establishment of regional centres away from existing infrastructure. Rather than starting afresh, the Committee is of the view that existing regional centres should be supported, and opportunities for both public and private sector decentralisation should be actively sought and supported.
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The Committee recommends that work continue by the Australian Government to facilitate both public and private sector decentralisation.
Mr Tony Pasin MP
Chair