31
May 2016
PDF version [441KB]
Deirdre McKeown
Politics and Public
Administration Section
Contents
Introduction
Background
55th Parliament 2011–2015
Independent Commission against
Corruption (ICAC)
Leadership changes
Liberal Party of Australia
The Nationals
Australian Labor Party
Opinion polls
By-elections
2013 Redistribution
Lindt café siege
Election campaign
Electricity privatisation – the sale
of ‘poles and wires’
Coal seam gas
iVote
Results
Legislative Assembly
Party gains
Legislative Council
Women
Pre-poll votes
Federal implications
Appendix 1: 2015 New South Wales
Post-Election Pendulum
Introduction
On Saturday 28 March 2015 New South Wales (NSW) voters went
to the polls to elect members of the 56th Parliament. The Constitution Act
1902 (NSW) provides for a state election to be held every four years
on the fourth Saturday in March. Members of the Legislative Assembly are
elected for a term of four years and members of the Legislative Council for
eight years.[1]
The rules for the election of members of the
Legislative Assembly and the Legislative Council are contained in the Constitution
Act 1902 (NSW) and the Parliamentary Electorates and Elections Act 1912 (NSW).[2]
The 93 members of the Legislative Assembly are elected by the optional
preferential system of voting. The Legislative Council consists
of 42 members with half (21) elected every four years by proportional
representation, with the state regarded as a single electorate.
The optional preferential voting system used in NSW requires
that voters rank candidates in order of preference, but need only indicate at
least one single preference for their vote to count.[3]
Previous state elections held in Victoria on 29 November
2014 and in Queensland on 31 January 2015 had resulted in Liberal-National
governments being defeated in favour of the Labor opposition. The Queensland
election resulted in the defeat of the first term LNP government with the
Premier, Campbell Newman losing his seat. One commentator noted that links had
been drawn between the electoral fortunes of these Coalition governments and
the federal Coalition Government:
Two first-term Coalition governments were defeated and some
of the blame was laid at the feet of Tony Abbott and his government.[4]
Another noted that the Federal Government’s performance ‘so
marred the final week of the Queensland state election campaign in late January
that it contributed to the ousting of Campbell Newman's government’.[5]
The Queensland LNP Government had also campaigned on a large privatisation
agenda, including the state’s electricity assets, which commentators agreed was
another reason for the voter backlash.[6]
On 9 February 2015, following unrest in the Liberal party
room over the prime minister’s performance, Tony Abbott survived a motion to spill
the federal leadership of the Liberal Party. Abbott described this to
colleagues as a ‘near death experience’.[7]
Although the leadership issue in the federal Liberal Party was resolved more
than six weeks before the NSW election, many political observers still believed
that the federal government’s performance could have an impact on the NSW
result.[8]
This paper provides a brief overview of
the 55th NSW Parliament, the 2015 state election campaign, results
and federal implications. More detailed information on the NSW election is available
in papers by election analyst Antony Green.[9]
Background
55th Parliament 2011–2015
The NSW Liberal-National coalition achieved a historic
election result in 2011, winning 64.2 per cent of the two-party preferred vote
in a 16.5 per cent swing to the Coalition.[10]
The election result ended 16 years of Labor Party rule and marked the first
time since the election of 1991 that the Liberal-National Coalition had won office
in NSW (and the first time since the election of 1988 that it had won a
majority of seats).[11]
The table below shows the strength of the parties in both Houses
following the 2011 election. The Australian Greens won their first seat in the Legislative
Assembly when Jamie Parker defeated Education Minister, Verity Firth, in the
electorate of Balmain.
Table 1: Party representation in
the NSW Parliament after March 2011 election
Party |
Legislative Assembly |
Legislative Council |
Coalition |
69 (Lib 51, Nat 18) |
19 (Lib 12, Nat 7) |
ALP |
20 |
14 |
Greens |
1 |
5 |
Independents |
3 |
- |
Christian Democrat |
- |
2 |
Shooters and Fishers |
- |
2 |
Total |
93 |
42 |
Source: compiled by the Parliamentary Library from NSW
Electoral Commission figures.
The NSW Independent Commission against Corruption (ICAC)
During the 55th Parliament, ICAC investigations had an
impact on a number of members of the NSW Coalition Government and members of
the previous NSW Australian Labor Party (ALP) Government.
ICAC investigations during the 54th and 55th Parliaments resulted
in the Commission making corrupt conduct findings against a number of former ALP
ministers including Edward Obeid, Ian Macdonald, Joseph Tripodi, Anthony Kelly
and parliamentary secretaries Karyn Paluzano and Angela D’Amore.[12]
These ministers, apart from Obeid, had resigned during the previous parliament
or retired at the 2011 election. Obeid resigned from the Legislative Council
on 10 May 2011. Another former minister, Eric Roosendaal, was cleared by ICAC (Operation
Indus) but resigned from Parliament on 17 May 2013.[13]
In 2014, ICAC investigated allegations concerning corrupt
conduct involving Australian Water Holdings Pty Ltd (AWH) (Operation Credo) and
allegations concerning soliciting, receiving and concealing payments from various sources and the failure to disclose political donations from
companies, including prohibited donors (Operation Spicer).[14]
Although ICAC had not reported on these two investigations before the election,[15]
a number of Government members of parliament stood down from ministerial
positions and/or resigned from the parliamentary Liberal Party during the
hearings. The changes included:[16]
- Barry O’Farrell (Member for Ku-ring-gai) resigned as Premier on
17 April 2014.[17]
He retired at the election.
- Mike Gallacher (Member of the NSW Legislative Council) resigned
as Minister for Police and Emergency Services, Minister for Industrial
Relations and Minister for the Central Coast on 7 May 2014. Gallacher’s term in
the Legislative Council ends in 2019.
- Chris Hartcher (Member for Terrigal) resigned as Minister
for Resources and Energy, Minister for the Central Coast and Special Minister
of State on 9 December 2013. In February 2014 media reports stated that Hartcher
had voluntarily withdrawn from the Liberal Party.[18]
He retired at the election.
-
Central Coast backbenchers Chris Spence (Member for The Entrance)
and Darren Webber (Member for Wyong) voluntarily moved to the crossbench on 19
February 2014.[19]
Both retired at the election.
- Marie Ficarra (Member of the Legislative Council) resigned as
Parliamentary Secretary to the Premier on 17 April 2014.[20]
On 29 April 2014 it was reported that she had voluntarily stepped down from the
parliamentary Liberal Party on 28 April.[21]
Ficarra retired at the election.
- Tim Owen (Member for Newcastle) resigned from Parliament on 12
August 2014.[22]
A by-election for his seat was held on 25 October 2014 (see section on by-elections
below).
- Andrew Cornwell (Member for Charlestown) resigned from Parliament
on 12 August 2014.[23]
A by-election for his seat was held on 25 October 2014 (see section on by-elections
below).
-
Garry Edwards (Member for Swansea) announced on 14 August
2014 that he would stand aside from the parliamentary Liberal Party and sit on
the crossbenches.[24]
He was defeated at the election.
- Craig Baumann (Member for Port Stephens), stood aside from the
Liberal Party on 12 September 2014.[25]
He retired at the election.
- Bart Bassett (Member for Londonderry), announced on
27 August 2014 that he would stand aside from the Liberal Party.[26] He retired at the
election.
Leadership changes
All major parties experienced leadership changes during the
55th Parliament with two leaders, Barry O’Farrell (Lib) and Andrew Stoner (Nats),
not contesting the 2015 election.
Liberal Party of Australia
As noted above, Barry O’Farrell resigned as Premier at a
meeting of the parliamentary Liberal Party on 17 April 2014. O’Farrell had
initially denied receiving a $3,000 bottle of wine from AWH executive Nick Di
Girolamo. On 16 April 2014, ICAC heard that a handwritten note from Mr
O'Farrell, thanking Mr Di Girolamo for the wine, had been uncovered.[27]
The ICAC had not accused O’Farrell of corruption.
On 17 April 2014 the Parliamentary Liberal Party elected Treasurer
Mike Baird, Member for Manly and son of former federal and state minister Bruce
Baird, as Liberal Party leader and Premier.
At the press conference following his election, it was
reported that Baird acknowledged that there were community concerns about
lobbyists, fund-raising and political donations and foreshadowed changes to the
way lobbyists operate in NSW.[28]
The ICAC had previously recommended a tightening of the
rules around lobbyists in NSW, including a requirement for companies and
associates lobbying ministers to be registered and for details of the meetings
to be made public.[29]
The Nationals
On 15 October 2014, Andrew Stoner (Member for Oxley)
announced his intention to resign as Deputy Premier of NSW and leader of the
Nationals. Mr Stoner explained his reason for resignation saying:
I have no job lined up and I'm not under any cloud. I simply
need to be there for my family.[30]
Stoner retired at the election. His successor, Troy Grant
(Member for Dubbo) was elected at a Nationals’ party room meeting on 16 October
2014.[31]
Australian Labor Party
On 23 December 2014, John Robertson (Member for Blacktown),
announced his resignation as Labor leader and Opposition leader. Robertson
resigned over revelations that he had signed a letter of request in 2011 for
Man Haron Monis, the perpetrator of the Lindt Café siege in Sydney in December
2014.[32]
Luke Foley, a member of the left faction and the Legislative
Council, was elected unopposed at a party meeting on 5 January 2015.[33]
Foley successfully contested the seat of Auburn at the election and moved to
the Legislative Assembly. On 10 January 2015 a newspaper referred to the
‘anyone but Robertson factor’ and reported that a Galaxy poll showed that:
Labor’s primary vote of 36 per cent (up two) gives the party
real encouragement for March 28, bearing in mind Morris Iemma managed to win
government in 2007 with just 39 per cent of the primary vote …
With the poll showing only 19 per cent of people can actually
name Luke Foley as Opposition Leader, and with Foley yet to announce a single
policy of substance, this poll result shows how bad John Robertson was as an
election prospect.[34]
Opinion polls
During the 55th Parliament, the Government consistently
outpolled the ALP Opposition. A newspaper article in March 2013 noted that ‘the
opinion polls have consistently held O'Farrell leagues ahead of his Labor
opponent, John Robertson’.[35]
But as the election date approached new leaders of all major parties were attempting
to connect with voters. The Government was still nervous about the defeat of a
first term LNP Government in Queensland, allegations at ICAC against 10 Liberal
members, and the need to overcome the ‘dysfunction of Prime Minister Tony
Abbott’s federal government’.[36]
By early November the media was reporting that the
Government and the Premier had not been affected by ICAC resignations and
allegations with headlines such as ‘Coalition emerge from ICAC ahead of Labor’
and ‘Baird hoses off ICAC mud to soar as premier pick’.[37]
A Newspoll published in December 2014, conducted before John
Robertson’s resignation, showed that the Opposition ‘faced a heavy defeat’.[38]
In January 2015 a Fairfax/Ipsos poll found that:
The Baird Coalition's two-party preferred vote increased by 2
per cent to 56 per cent using preference flows from the 2011 election, in a
result that challenges claims that economic reform has become impossible in the
contemporary media environment.
The Luke Foley-led Labor Party fell 2 per cent to 44 per cent
[two-party preferred]. The Coalition's primary vote increased by 2 per cent to 46
per cent and Labor's fell by 2 per cent to 34 per cent …
The poll suggests Premier Baird would win the election
comfortably and secure the nine upper house seats that are required for the $13
billion poles and wires transaction to go ahead.
Mr Baird's approval rating remains unchanged from November's
poll at 60 per cent positive - making him by far the nation's most popular
leader. His net approval rating is unchanged at 42 per cent.
The first Fairfax/Ipsos poll since Mr Foley became opposition
leader found his net approval rating at 9 per cent, up 11 per cent from his
predecessor John Robertson.
But only 15 per cent of respondents were able to identify
him.[39]
A Galaxy poll, published in January 2015, reported similar
results: the ALP had a primary vote at 36 per cent compared with the Coalition on
44 per cent and a two-party preferred vote of 46 per cent (ALP) and 54 per cent
(Coalition), while 19 per cent of voters were able to identify opposition
leader, Luke Foley.[40]
By-elections
During the 55th Parliament, seven by-elections were held
with four seats resulting in a change of party representation. Table 2 lists
the results of by-elections in the 55th Parliament. The Liberal Party did not
contest by-elections for the electorates of Charlestown and Newcastle where the
sitting Liberal members resigned as a result of evidence given at ICAC (see
ICAC section above). Election analysist Antony Green noted that:
[a]s the Liberal Party won both seats at the 2011
election, choosing not to defend them at by-elections creates history in NSW
politics.[41]
The ALP did not contest the by-election for the seat of
Sydney where an amendment to the Local Government Act 1993 (NSW)
forced Independent MP Clover Moore to resign her seat if she wanted to continue
as Lord Mayor.[42]
The electorate of Miranda was regained by the Liberal Party at the 2015
election.
Table 2: Legislative Assembly
by-election changes 2011–2015
Electorate |
Departing MP
(Party) |
Reason |
New MP (Party) |
Clarence |
Steve Cansdell
(NAT) |
Resigned |
Chris Gulaptis
(NAT) |
Heffron |
Kristina Keneally (ALP) |
Resigned |
Ron Hoenig (ALP) |
Sydney |
Clover Moore (IND) |
Resigned |
Alex Greenwich
(IND) |
Northern Tablelands |
Richard Torbey
(IND) |
Resigned |
Adam Marshall (NAT) |
Miranda |
Graham Annesley
(LIB) |
Resigned |
Barry Collier (ALP) |
Charlestown |
Andrew Cornwell
(LIB) |
Resigned |
Jodie Harrison
(ALP) |
Newcastle |
Tim Owen (LIB) |
Resigned |
Tim Crakanthorp
(ALP) |
Source: A Green, 2015 New South Wales Election: analysis of
results, op. cit., p. 57.
Note: bolded electorates indicate where a seat changed
party.
2013 Redistribution
In 2013 NSW Electoral Districts Commissioners conducted a
redistribution of electoral districts which is required, by law, to take place
after every two state elections.[43]
The table below summarises changes (and notional changes) in seats as a result
of the redistribution and by-elections.[44]
Table 3: Summary of changes
resulting from 2013 redistribution and by-elections
Seats Held by Party
|
Liberal
|
National
|
Labor
|
Greens
|
Ind
|
Total
|
Old Boundaries |
51 |
18 |
20 |
1 |
3 |
93 |
New Boundaries |
53 |
17 |
18 |
2 |
3 |
93 |
Including by-elections |
50 |
18 |
21 |
2 |
2 |
93 |
Source: A Green, 2015 New South Wales Election: analysis of
results, op. cit., p. 58.
Table 3 reflects the following changes:
- The National held seats of Burrinjuck, Murrumbidgee and
Murray-Darling were abolished and replaced by the new National seats of
Cootamundra and Murray.
- The Labor seat of Marrickville was abolished and replaced by two
new seats in notionally Labor-held Summer Hill and the notionally Green-held
seat of Newtown.
- The Labor held seat of Toongabbie was abolished and replaced by
the notionally Liberal seat of Seven Hills.
- The Labor seat of Macquarie Fields became notionally Liberal held
on its new boundaries.
- The Liberal seat of Smithfield was replaced by Prospect.
- The Liberal seat of Menai was replaced by Holsworthy.
- The Independent held seat of Northern Tablelands was won by the
National Party at a May 2013 by-election.
- The Liberal held seat of Miranda was won by the Labor Party at an
October 2013 by-election.
- The Liberal held seats Charlestown and Newcastle were gained by
the Labor Party at by-elections in October 2014.[45]
Lindt café siege
On 15 December 2014, a gunman, later identified as Man Haron
Monis, held a group of people hostage in the Lindt café in Martin Place,
Sydney.[46]
The siege ended the following day, with the death of two hostages and Monis. On
the first day of the siege, Premier Baird said:
We are being tested today in Sydney. The police are being
tested, but whatever the test, we will face it head on and we will remain a
strong, democratic, civil society.[47]
At the end of the week the media assessment of the Premier’s
performance in handling the crisis was generally positive, for example:
His background as a theology student and devout Christian –
viewed with suspicion in some quarters when he was elevated to the premier’s role
in April – has served Baird well this week. He has focused not just on big
decision-making, and demanded answers, but paid close attention the pastoral
care of a shocked city.[48]
Election campaign
By early 2015 one commentator noted that the election
campaign was ‘a real contest of ideas … [and] a campaign of more than sound
bites’.[49]
Another suggested that ‘the 2015 NSW election will not be a normal election
campaign. For once, this will be an election decided on policy’.[50]
The last sitting day for the Legislative Assembly was 20
November 2014. The election caretaker period commenced on 6 March 2015, the
date the Legislative Assembly was dissolved.[51]
The Premier and Leader of the Opposition took part in three
leaders’ debates on 27 February, 8 March and 13 March 2015.[52]
In a departure from the usual election timetable the
Opposition’s official campaign launch was held on Sunday 1 March 2015, before
the caretaker period commenced.[53]
Apart from opposing the sale of electricity assets, Foley announced plans for
jobs and infrastructure projects, a moratorium on coal seam gas activity and aimed
to convince voters that the party was electable after four years in opposition.[54]
The Nationals launched their campaign on 15 March 2015, with leader Troy Grant
speaking in the Wiradjuri language.[55]
The Premier launched the Liberal Party’s official campaign on
22 March 2015, with a ‘centrepiece announcement [of] a $678 million jobs
package’.[56]
Media reports noted that the Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, was:
… seen but not heard at the NSW Liberal Party's state
election campaign launch, which sought to keep the spotlight firmly on the
popular Premier Mike Baird.[57]
On 23 March 2015 a Fairfax/Ipsos poll found that:
… voters are finding it difficult to embrace the idea of
Labor back in power after only four years.
A notable statistic in the polling data is that
economic management is being nominated by more people as the issue of most
importance. Baird and the government have a good track record on this point.
At the official Liberal campaign launch on Sunday, Baird
reminded his supporters that, under Labor, NSW was ranked last out of all
states and territories on key economic measures – after four years of a
Coalition government it is first.
Voters appear to trust him, even to the point where they are
backing his government for a second term to implement a policy half of them
don’t like.[58]
On 24 March 2015, polling analyst William Bowe noted a
similar sentiment among voters, summarised in the title of his article: ‘NSW voters hate Baird's signature policy – but they hate Labor more’.[59] Bowe reported that:
As the New South Wales election campaign
enters the home stretch, opinion polls are offering no indication that Labor is
gaining the late-campaign momentum it needs to elevate its prospects from
recovery to outright victory.
Clearly this says something about Labor's
ongoing saleability in the state, because the dominant issue of the campaign is
playing heavily in its favour.[60]
During the election campaign, polling and media commentary
focussed on the contrast between Mike Baird’s popularity and the performance of
Prime Minister Tony Abbott and his Government.[61]
The ‘Abbott factor’ was particularly marked among young NSW voters, with 56 per
cent of 18 to 34 year olds reporting in a poll conducted for the Guardian
that they were less likely to vote Liberal.[62]
The poll, conducted by Lonergan Research, also found that 29 per cent of all
voters intended to use their state vote as a protest against federal issues. Another
consistent feature in opinion polls was Mike Baird’s clear lead over Luke Foley
as ‘preferred Premier’.[63]
A final Newspoll published on election
day found that the Liberal-Nationals Coalition led the ALP by 55 per cent to 45
per cent on a two-party preferred basis and primary vote on 44 per cent
(Coalition) to 34 per cent ALP.[64]
Following the election one newspaper identified the five
main issues of the election as: electricity privatisation and infrastructure,
the Abbott factor, coal seam gas, trust in politics and 2014 federal budget
cuts.[65]
Electricity privatisation – the sale of ‘poles and wires’
The main policy difference between the Government and
Opposition was the privatisation of electricity assets, the ‘poles and wires’ issue.
It was observed that both parties had:
… framed … [the] election as a referendum on the government’s
proposal to partially lease the state’s electricity “poles and wires”.[66]
One newspaper suggested that:
Baird has based his entire election campaign on leasing 49
per cent of what’s left of NSW power assets—the retailers and generators have
already been flogged off—and using the proceeds to finance an enormous
infrastructure program, the bulk of which will go to addressing the biggest
issue on Sydney voters’ minds: congestion.[67]
The Nationals were opposed to the sale of electricity assets
in regional areas. Central to their policy was the promise to keep 100 per cent
of the rural distribution network, Essential Energy, in public hands.[68]
At the first leaders’ debate, on 27 February 2015, Baird
responded to questions about the sale of ‘poles and wires’ and the link to
infrastructure funding saying there was ‘no plan B’ if he was not able to lease
the state’s electricity assets.[69]
Baird said he was going into the election seeking a mandate for 51 per cent
government ownership, and leasing 49 per cent.[70]
The electorate did not support the Premier’s plan to partially
privatise the state’s electricity network, and the policy was opposed by the
Opposition with Foley describing the Government’s proposal as ‘simply not in
the public interest’.[71]
In early February 2015 a Fairfax/Ipsos poll revealed that:
… fewer than one in four voters – or 23 per cent – support
the partial privatisation of the electricity “poles and wires”.[72]
Five days before the election another Fairfax/Ipsos poll
found the issue still remained very unpopular with ‘just 31 per cent supporting
the partial sale of the NSW electricity network businesses and 62 per cent
against’.[73]
But the poll also found that when voters were asked for their view on
privatisation with the proceeds being used for infrastructure, voters remained
evenly split, with support at 48 per cent and 47 per cent opposed.[74]
One newspaper suggested that, for Mike Baird, the election was
‘all about that gamble [selling poles and wires]. It’s crash or crash through;
make a difference or go home.’[75]
Baird linked the sale of electricity assets to the state’s ability to fund a
$20 billion infrastructure program and promised his plan would:
deliver … an improvement to every person’s daily life in
terms of less congestion, less traffic [and] less crowded trains.[76]
Coal seam gas
Coal mining and coal seam gas (CSG) were also issues that
attracted media attention during the election campaign.[77]
The Guardian reported that:
Coal seam gas remains a salient issue in the campaign, as
evidenced by the major parties scrambling to distance themselves from CSG and
mining projects.
Labor has proposed a moratorium on CSG across the whole
state, and the Coalition has cancelled a number of exploration licences, though
critics argue they were the less active licences.[78]
The Coalition Government had released the NSW Gas Plan
on 13 November 2014 and acknowledged that CSG was a divisive issue:
Government recognises that gas development in NSW concerns
some of our communities, and that mistakes have been made.
A reset to the approach to gas development is clearly
required.[79]
Troy Grant, the new leader of the Nationals, was reported
as describing CSG as the ‘most polarising issue facing the government’.[80]
Two months earlier, the Queensland state election had shown the capacity of CSG
to:
Galvanise conservative and environmentalist constituencies
when Sydney broadcaster Alan Jones went on the warpath against Campbell Newman
in the Queensland campaign.[81]
Former Governor of NSW Dame Marie Bashir announced her
opposition to the destruction of fertile Australian farmland for mining,
describing it as a crisis.[82]
The conflict between farming and mining, including CSG, was acknowledged as ‘a
defining election issue in regional NSW, … [that could] heavily sway results in
seats on the north coast and in western NSW’.[83]
Having identified mining and CSG as the number one
election issue, the Greens campaigned on these issues in seats in the
north-eastern corner of NSW.[84]
At one stage the party was on track to win two northern NSW seats, Ballina and
Lismore, from the Nationals. In the final result the Greens won Ballina and
the Nationals retained Lismore.
Although CSG was identified as one of the main election
issues, a Fairfax/Ipsos poll found that only 8 per cent ranked CSG and mining
as the issue most important in deciding their vote, compared to health and
hospitals (24 per cent), managing the State’s finances (19 per cent) and
education (16 per cent).[85]
iVote
The online iVote system used at the 2011 NSW state election
was originally implemented as a voting solution for NSW’s 13,000 electors who
are blind and 54,000 who have low vision. However, almost all of the 43,025 NSW
electors who lodged an electronic vote using a web browser in 2011 were people
who stated that they were outside NSW on polling day. Fewer than 500 voters who
were blind, had low vision, or who were illiterate lodged an electronic vote
online.[86]
At the 2015 state election the iVote system was available
to:
… people who are blind or have low-vision, who have a
disability, who live more than 20 kilometres from their nearest polling place
or who will be interstate or overseas on election day.[87]
The iVote system replaced in person voting for all voters
outside NSW on election day.[88]
On 19 March 2015 it was reported that two minor parties, the
Outdoor Recreation Party (ORP) and the Animal Justice Party (AJP) were omitted
from the ‘above the line’ section of the iVote ballot paper.[89]
About 19,000 people had cast an iVote before the system was suspended for some
hours. The NSW Electoral Commission (NSWEC) said that as the names of
candidates for these two parties were listed below the line, voters could use
this method to vote for these parties and that the 19,000 votes already cast using
the iVote system would be considered valid.[90]
The ORP and AJP were involved in a contest for the final
place in the Legislative Council and announced that they would consider a legal
challenge to the result because, as one candidate said, the iVote error meant ‘we were not above the line for
36 hours’.[91]
When the AJP won the final seat the legal challenge did not eventuate.[92]
After the election it was reported that analysis by the
NSWEC had found parties on the left of the ballot paper received a much bigger
donkey vote than with traditional paper-based voting and, as a result the NSWEC
planned to introduce a randomised screen position when voters logged in to
iVote.[93]
In March 2015 two academics announced that they had found a
security flaw in the iVote system that allowed votes to be exposed or changed
without the voter’s knowledge.[94]
In response, the NSWEC noted that the vulnerability was not in the iVote system,
but in an associated monitoring tool used by the voting system. The NSWEC also
noted that the paper did not provide evidence of any actual breach of the iVote
production system.[95]
In a report on the operation of iVote the NSWEC noted that:
Some 283,669 electors cast their vote through the iVote
system, which set a new world record for the number of electors returning an
electronic ballot for a binding parliamentary election.[96]
On the future of iVote the NSWEC concluded:
It is envisaged that iVote will continue to replace postal
voting and overseas venues and may be used in the future to take absent votes
at all pre-polls and selected high volume polling places. This would mean iVote
could take an extra 150,000 votes which would greatly reduce the large number
of errors experienced with absent vote handling. The implementation of iVote
for these situations would use a verifiable paper trail rather than remote
voting’s phone verification service. However, it is not envisaged that iVote
will replace in-district voting at polling places and pre-polls using paper
ballots which currently represents over 80% of the votes taken at a general
election.[97]
Results
Tables 4 and 5 below show party representation (and seats
gained and lost) in the Legislative Assembly and the Legislative Council at the
2015 NSW election.
Table 4: Party representation in
the Legislative Assembly in the 56th Parliament
Party |
Members |
% Members |
Australian Labor Party |
34 (+14) |
37 |
Liberal Party of Australia |
37 (-14) |
40 |
The Nationals |
17 (-1) |
18 |
The Greens |
3 (+2) |
3 |
Independents |
2 (-1) |
2 |
Total |
93 |
100 |
Source: New South Wales (NSW) Parliament, ‘Party representation in the Assembly’,
NSW Parliament website, accessed 13 July 2015. Changes in seat numbers from A
Green, 2015 New South Wales election: analysis of results, op. cit., p.
5.
Table 5: Party representation in
the Legislative Council in the 56th Parliament
Party |
Members |
% Members |
Animal Justice Party |
1 (+1) |
2 |
Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile
Group) |
2 |
5 |
Australian Labor Party |
12 (-2) |
28 |
Liberal Party of Australia |
13 (+1) |
31 |
The Greens |
5 |
12 |
The Nationals |
7 |
17 |
Shooters and Fishers Party |
2 |
5 |
Total |
42 |
100 |
Source: New South Wales (NSW)
Parliament, Party representation in the Council, NSW Parliament website, accessed 14 November 2015.
(Percentages are rounded to the nearest point.) Changes in seat numbers from A
Green, 2015 New South Wales election: analysis of results, op. cit., p.
44.
Legislative Assembly
In the Legislative Assembly, 540 candidates contested the 93
electoral divisions, an increase on the 498 candidates who contested the 2011
election. Table 6 below shows that, after the distribution of preferences, the
state-wide two-party preferred percentages were Coalition 54.3 per cent and
Labor 45.7 per cent. This represents an overall swing to Labor of 9.9 per cent on
the 2011 election result.[98]
The 54 seats won by the Coalition has only been bettered proportionally by the
69 seats won at the 2011 election.[99]
Table 6: Seats won, swing and
percentage of vote in the Legislative Assembly
Party |
% Primary
vote |
Swing |
Two-party
preferred swing (a) |
Seats
won(b) (change from 2011 election) |
Liberal Party |
35.08 |
-3.50 |
|
37 (-14) |
National Party |
10.55 |
-2.02 |
|
17 (-1) |
Total Coalition |
45.63
(54.3 2PP) |
-5.52 |
-9.9 |
54
(-15) |
Labor |
25.91 |
+1.89 |
|
31 (+12) |
Country Labor |
8.16 |
+6.64 |
|
3 (+2) |
Total Labor |
34.07
(45.7 2PP) |
+8.53
|
+9.9 |
34
(+14) |
Greens |
10.29 |
– |
|
3 (+2) |
Independents |
3.85 |
-4.99 |
|
2 (-1) |
Total |
|
|
|
93 |
Source: A Green, 2015 New South Wales Election: analysis of
results, op. cit., p. 5.
(a) See A Green, 2015 New South Wales Election: analysis of results, op.
cit., p. 33 for a table including two-candidate preferred figures
(b) Note: the change of seats column above is calculated compared to the actual
seats won by each party at the 2011 election. If the notional seat holdings
following the redistribution were used, the change column would be Liberal
(-16), Labor (+16), Greens (+1) and Independents (-1), as shown in the table 7
below.
A uniform swing of 9.9 per cent would have delivered 20
seats to Labor, but the uneven swing resulted in the ALP falling short of this
number.[100]
Antony Green notes that ‘[t]hree of the government's most marginal seats were
retained with small swings to the government, East Hills (0.2 [per cent]
margin), Monaro (2.0 [per cent]) and Oatley (3.8 [per cent])’,[101]
and that:
The two-party preferred swing to the ALP was 7.9 [per cent]
in greater Sydney, 13.6 [per cent] in the Hunter/Illawarra and 12.5 [per cent]
in Regional/Rural areas. The swing against the Coalition government was
greatest on the Central Coast (13.1 [per cent]) in the Hunter Valley (17.1 [per
cent]) where the ICAC donation inquiries were most important, and on the North
Coast (19.0 [per cent]) where the Greens campaigned strongly on coal seam gas
issues.[102]
Party gains
Table 7 below shows seats that changed party at the 2015
election. It includes three seats won at by-elections and retained at the
election.
Table 7: Legislative Assembly
seats changing party at the 2015 election
Gaining party |
Gained from |
Seats (#) |
Labor Party |
Liberal Party |
Blue Mountains, Campbelltown,
Charlestown (by-election), Gosford, Granville, Londonderry, Macquarie Fields,
Maitland, Newcastle (by-election), Port Stephens, Prospect, Rockdale,
Strathfield, Swansea, The Entrance, Wyong (16) |
Greens |
Nationals |
Ballina (1)(a) |
Nationals |
Independent |
Northern Tablelands (1) |
Source: A Green, 2015 New South Wales Election: analysis of
results, op. cit., p. 5
(a) Note: the Greens also won the seat of Newtown. This is seat is not included
in Table 7 above as the seat is ‘a new notionally Green held seat with no
sitting member’. Source: A Green, New South Wales Election: analysis of
results, op. cit., p. 22.
The three seats beyond the 9.9 per cent swing that fell to
Labor were The Entrance (11.8 per cent), Gosford (11.9 per cent) and Port
Stephens (14.8 per cent). Labor won six of the seven electorates where, as noted
above, Liberal candidates stood aside over the ICAC donation inquiries, with
only the seat of Terrigal retained by the Liberal Party. [103]
The Green vote in the Assembly was unchanged at 10.3 per
cent, but the Party’s selected targeting of seats saw the number of Green
seats won in the lower House increase from one to three (Balmain, Newtown and
Ballina). The party came close to winning Lismore but this seat was retained by
the National Party.
Legislative
Council
A record 394 candidates stood for the Legislative Council, an
increase of 83 on the 311 candidates at the 2011 election.
Tables 8 and 9 below show that the Coalition won nine seats,
giving it a total of 20 out of the Council’s 42 seats. It is likely that the
Coalition will be able to rely on the support of Reverend Fred Nile’s Christian
Democratic Party to pass legislation including the leasing of poles and wires.[104]
As noted in Tables 8 and 9 , the Labor Party did not perform well in the
Legislative Council, winning seven seats (a loss of two seats) to give it a
total of 12 members. The Nationals won three seats and the Greens won two. The
Nationals total of seven and Greens total of five seats remained unchanged in
the Council (see Table 9 below). The Animal Justice Party won its first seat
with 1.8 per cent (0.29 quotas) and 2.1 per cent (0.47 quotas) after
preferences.[105]
Table 8: Seats won, swing and
percentage of vote in the Legislative Council
Party |
%
vote |
Swing |
Seats
won |
Liberal/Nationals |
42.61 |
-5.06 |
9
(Lib: 6, Nat: 3) |
Labor/Country Labor |
31.09 |
+7.36 |
7 |
The Greens |
9.92 |
-1.20 |
2 |
Shooters and Fishers (SFP) |
3.89 |
+0.19 |
1 |
Christian Democratic Party (CDP) |
2.93 |
-0.20 |
1 |
Animal Justice Party (AJP) |
1.78 |
+1.78 |
1 |
Total |
|
|
21 |
Source: A Green, 2015 New South Wales Election: analysis of
results, op. cit., p. 44.
Table 8 shows that the Coalition won 42.6 per cent of the
vote, with a swing against the Liberal/Nationals Parties of five per cent. The
Labor vote of 31.1 per cent represented a swing of 7.4 per cent to the ALP,
while the Greens vote share declined from 11.1 per cent to 9.9 per cent.
Table 9: Party Composition in
the Legislative Council in the 55th and 56th Parliaments
|
Liberal |
National |
ALP |
Green |
CDP |
SFP |
AJP |
Seats |
55th Parliament |
12 |
7 |
14 |
5 |
2 |
2 |
- |
42 |
56th Parliament |
13 |
7 |
12 |
5 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
42 |
Source: A Green, 2015 New South Wales Election: analysis of
results, op. cit., p. 44.
A very high proportion of all
Legislative Council ballot papers (98.3 per cent) were counted as ‘above the
line’ votes, with only 1.7 per cent 'below the line'. Only 15.3 per cent of
formal ballot papers used the ‘above the line’ preference option introduced at
the 2003 election.[106]
Women
Table 10 below shows that female representation in the
Legislative Assembly has increased to 28 (30 per cent) after the 2015 election from
21 (22.6 per cent) in 2011. The party breakdown of female members shows that
11 out of 54 Coalition members or 20 per cent are women; 15 of 34 Labor members
(44 per cent) and 2 out of 3 Greens or 66.7 per cent are women. The two
independent members are male.
Table 10: Legislative Assembly gender breakdown
Election |
2015 |
2011 |
|
Number |
% |
Number |
% |
Female |
28
ALP: 15 (44.1%)
LP: 8 (21.6%)
NATS: 3 (17.6%)
GRN: 2 (66.7%) |
30 |
21
ALP: 9 (45.0 %)
LP: 9 (17.6%)
NATS: 2 (11.1%)
IND: 1 (33.3%) |
22.6 |
Male |
65 |
70 |
72 |
77.4 |
Total |
93 |
100 |
93 |
100 |
Source: compiled by the Parliamentary Library from J McCann and
H Gobbett, Composition of Australian
parliaments by party and gender: a quick guide,
Research paper, Parliamentary Library, Canberra, 2 October 2015, accessed 2
February 2016 and from previous Parliamentary Library publications on the
composition of Australian parliaments.
Table 11 below shows that total female representation in the
Legislative Council has fallen from 13 (31 per cent) in 2011 to 10 (24 per
cent) after the 2015 election. The party breakdown of female members in the
upper house shows that four out of 20 Coalition Members or 20 per cent are
women; four of 12 of Labor members (33.3 per cent) are women and two out of
five Greens members (40 per cent) are women. The remaining members of minor
parties (Animal Justice Party (1), Christian Democratic Party (2) and the
Shooters and Fishers Party (2)) are all male.
Table 11: Legislative Council
gender breakdown
Election |
2015 |
2011 |
|
Number |
% |
Number |
% |
Female |
10
ALP: 4 (33.3%)
LP: 2 (15.4%)
NATS: 2 (28.6%)
GRN: 2 (40.0%) |
23.8 |
13
ALP: 5 (35.7%)
LP: 3 (25.0%)
NATS: 3 (42.9%)
GRN: 2 (40.0%) |
31.0 |
Male |
32 |
76 |
29 |
69.0 |
Total |
42 |
100 |
42 |
100 |
Source: compiled by the Parliamentary Library from J McCann and
H Gobbett, Composition of Australian
parliaments by party and gender: a quick guide,
Research paper, Parliamentary Library, Canberra, 2 October 2015, accessed 2
February 2016 and from previous Parliamentary Library publications on the
composition of Australian parliaments.
The new Baird Ministry includes the same number of women as
that of the previous ministry, five from a total of 22 (22.7%), including the
first female Treasurer (Gladys Berejiklian) and Attorney-General (Gabrielle
Upton). Four of 16 parliamentary secretaries are also female.[107]
Pre-poll votes
Over the past decade election analysts and academics have observed
a decline in voting on polling day in the Australian electoral system. There is
now a:
… significant shift towards ‘convenience’ voting in many
western democracies: a shift which threatens to deconstruct the very notion of
election day.[108]
Convenience voting has been described as the relaxation of
‘administrative rules and procedures by which citizens can cast a ballot at a
time and place other than the precinct on election day’.[109]
It covers two forms of early voting: postal voting and pre-poll voting in
person.[110]
Election analyst Antony Green noted that the 2015 NSW
election showed a continuation of this rise of early voting and the decline in
voting on polling day.[111]
In 1984, postal votes comprised 1.4 per cent of the vote and pre-poll votes 0.8
per cent; in 2015 postal votes were 4.6 per cent, pre-poll votes 14.2 per cent
and the new category of iVotes 6.3 per cent.[112]
This means that:
There has been a ten-fold increase in the proportion of votes
cast before polling day, up from 2.2 per cent in 1984 to 25.1 per cent in 2015.[113]
At the 2015 NSW election the number of postal votes cast
(4.6 per cent) declined in comparison with the 2011 election (5.7 per cent).
Green suggests that one reason for this was the prominence given to iVote by
the NSWEC.[114]
He also believes that:
Postal voting is certain to decline further … due to growing
cost and declining frequency of delivery. Postal voting has always been lower
at NSW elections because the campaign is only three weeks compared to four
weeks in other states and five weeks for federal elections.[115]
It is worth noting that pre-poll, postal and iVotes all
have lower levels of informal voting compared with votes cast at a polling
booth on election day.[116]
In its most recent annual report, the Australian Electoral
Commission (AEC) noted the growth in pre-poll votes at the 2013 federal
election:
Continuing the trend from previous elections, there was a
significant shift towards early voting. Votes cast before election day in 2013,
which included 1.98 million ordinary pre‑poll votes, represented more
than 27 per cent of all votes counted – some 1.37 million more early votes than
were counted in the 2010 federal election.[117]
The AEC also reported an increase in the number of voters
in the 2014 Western Australian Senate election who cast pre-poll and postal
votes than in the 2013 election.[118]
Federal implications
Polling analyst William Bowe has suggested that federal
implications of state elections are ‘at all times a fraught question’.[119]
Despite this, commentators and election analysts have considered the federal
implications of the 2015 NSW election for the major parties and the Greens.
A number of commentators compared the style and ability of
the Premier and (now former) Prime Minister Tony Abbott to sell an unpopular message,
for example:
… Baird had proved that a Coalition
leader could convince voters to support a free-market policy they didn’t
necessarily agree with.[120]
One observer believed that Baird had demonstrated in his
campaign ‘how Liberal leaders should campaign and behave’.[121]
A number of commentators referred to the negative campaign
run by Luke Foley and the danger for Opposition Leader Bill Shorten of being a
‘federal Foley’.[122]
Journalist Michelle Grattan suggested that:
The NSW result will put some pressure on
Bill Shorten to be more positive, after the failure of Luke Foley’s highly negative
campaign.[123]
The dangers involved in conducting a
negative campaign were examined by former Labor senator and now manager of a
demographic profiling company, John Black, who found that:
The negative scare campaign by Labor proved a complete dog with
middle-class voters and professionals in the sort of seats Labor lost in 2011.
While Labor won big swings from poorer seats, the middle class and professional
suburbs swung even further to the Coalition than they had in 2011 when Labor’s
vote was decimated by an average statewide swing of 14.6 per cent. This
minimised Labor gains in some traditional Labor seats lost in 2011, like
Parramatta and Drummoyne.
The federal implications for the major parties seem to be
that Labor can get close to a majority of seats with a negative campaign targeted
at lower socio economic status, traditional Labor voters, so long as the
economy is going bad and the federal Coalition is led by a leader as unpopular
as Campbell Newman was in Queensland.[124]
On the performance of the Greens in inner city and some
north coast electorates it was noted that:
The election had fascinating implications for the federal
Labor Party … it crystallised the threat from the left. The Greens withstood
huge Labor efforts to take back the inner-city seats of Newtown and Balmain,
suburbs once considered the core of Labor support … Anger about coal mines,
coal-seam gas drilling and Australia’s tough refugee policies had driven many
voters to the Greens, who received more votes in the election than the
Nationals.[125]
Although the Greens did not improve on the party’s 2011
position, another commentator suggested that the Greens:
… have emerged as serious parliamentary
players who threaten not only Labor (from the Left) but also the Nationals in
environmentally sensitive seats.[126]
On Labor’s performance in Sydney seats, William Bowe noted
that:
Labor's strongest recoveries tended to occur in the most
ethnically diverse areas of western Sydney, which correspond with the
unloseable federal seats of Blaxland, McMahon and Fowler. Of the 54 seats
encompassing the Sydney metropolitan area, two out of the three biggest swings
to Labor were in Cabramatta and Fairfield, which collectively constitute the
hub of Sydney's Vietnamese community.
But in some of the less cosmopolitan areas, the Liberals
actually managed to outperform the 2011 landslide — and these tend to be the
areas where Labor most needs to recover ground federally.
The seats of Reid in Sydney's inner west and Banks further to
the south were lost by Labor at the 2013 federal election for the first time in
respective histories going back to 1922 and 1949.
Much of the Banks territory is accounted for by the state
seats of East Hills and Oatley, where Labor suffered what were perhaps its two
worst results of the election, with the Liberals successfully defending a 0.2%
margin in the former case and picking up a swing of nearly 3% in the latter.
Another two of the five seats that swung to the Liberals were
Drummoyne and Auburn (the latter being an inauspicious result for Luke Foley,
who was using the seat for his move from the upper to the lower house), which
all but perfectly align with Reid.[127]
Appendix 1: 2015 New South Wales Post-Election Pendulum
|
Labor |
|
Liberal |
|
National |
|
Greens |
|
Independents |
|
|
Source: A Green, ‘Final NSW election results, preferences and a new
pendulum’, Antony Green’s election
blog, 13 April 2015, accessed 9 December 2015.
Antony Green has
noted the following points on the pendulum above:
- The table sets out the post-election pendulum for New South
Wales. All electorates are shown with their two-party preferred margin. The
five electorates won by Greens and Independents are shown twice, once with the
actual two-candidate preferred results, and also with their notional 2-party
preferred margin in either the Labor or Coalition column.
- Eleven other electorates also have their actual 2-candidate
preferred result shown.
- To govern in majority in the Legislative Assembly, a party needs
to hold 47 seats.
- With 54 seats the Coalition would lose eight seats and majority
government on a uniform swing of 6.6%.
- With 34 seats, Labor needs to gain 13 seats for majority
government, a uniform swing of 8.2%.
- A uniform swing of between 6.6% and 8.2% could produce majority
government.
- However, with 11 seats in the key battleground region of 6-9%, it
will be the swing in individual key seats rather than any uniform swing that
will determine the result of the 2019 state election.[128]
[10]. B Holmes, 2011
NSW election, Background note, Parliamentary Library, Canberra, 23 June
2011, p.25, accessed 30 September 2015.
[12]. See
Independent Commission against Corruption (ICAC) website for more details on Operations
Jasper and Acacia and Indus, Operation
Jarilo Operation
Acacia and Operation
Napier, accessed 11 September 2015 and Operation
Corinth and Operation
Syracuse, accessed 27 May 2016. See also G Winestock, ‘Tripodi joins Obeid in ICAC’s shame file’, Australian
Financial Review, 6 June 2014, p. 2, M Coultan, ‘Charges urged after Eddie Obeid found corrupt again’, Australian, 6 June 2014, p. 1, K McClymont, D
Snow and M Whitbourn, ‘Obeid’s
tangled web snares Tripodi’, Sydney Morning Herald, 2 November 2013,
p. 5 and A Dale, ‘ICAC
tables turn on Joe’, Daily Telegraph, 2 November 2013, p. 1. See
also L Besser, ‘Labor’s
nightmare without end’, Sydney Morning Herald, 18 May 2013, p. 3,
all accessed 1 May 2016.
[13]. Ibid.,
Operation Indus.
[15]. The reports
were delayed by the High Court’s decision in ICAC v Cunneen [2015] HCA
14. The outcome of this case and resulting NSW legislation
affected the basis of the Commission's powers with respect to significant parts
of Operations Credo and Spicer. See ICAC, ‘Operations Credo and Spicer: directions’ 18 December 2015, accessed 1 February 2016. At the time of writing
the reports have not been released.
[16]. This list
does not include Senator Arthur Sinodinos (in the federal Parliament). On 19
March 2014 Sinodinos announced that, as he had been called as a witness to the
ICAC’s inquiry into Australian Water Holdings Pty Ltd, he would stand aside as
Assistant Treasurer. See A Sinodinos, ’Matter
of Public Interest: Australian Water Holdings’, Senate, Debates, 19
March 2014, accessed 2 October 2015.
[24]. M Whitbourn
and K McClymont,’Another Liberal stands aside’, op. cit.
[26]. M Whitbourn
and K McClymont,’Another Liberal stands aside’, op. cit.
[28]. S Nicholls,
‘Transformer’,
Sydney Morning Herald, 18 April 2014, p. 1, accessed 26 October 2015.
[45]. A Green,
2015 New South Wales Election: analysis of results, op.cit, p. 58.
[52]. For reports
on these debates see S Nicholls, 'No plan B' gift to Labor’, Sydney
Morning Herald, 28 February 2015, p. 11, A Clennell, ‘Split decision perhaps, but Foley needs much more if he is seeking
to impress’, Daily Telegraph, 9 March 2015,
p. 4 and L Foschia, ‘NSW
election 2015: Luke Foley, Mike Baird face off over electricity privatisation
in leaders' debate’, ABC news, 16 March 2015, all
accessed 14 November 2015.
[55]. G Griffiths,
‘State
election 2015’, Briefing Book, NSW Parliamentary Research Service, April
2015, p. 13, accessed 1 December 2015.
[61]. G
Griffiths, ‘State election 2015’, Briefing Book, op. cit., pp. 13–14.
[63]. S Nicholls,
‘Baird’s popularity rises above power sale fears’, op. cit., 23 March
2015.
[65]. ‘High 5:
key issues of the election’, Sun Herald, op. cit.
[71]. L Foley,
‘NSW Labor leader Luke Foley: campaign launch speech’, op. cit., p. 5.
[73]. S Nicholls,
‘Baird powers ahead’, op. cit. See also S Nicholls, ‘Baird’s popularity rises
above power sale fears’, op. cit.
[76]. Quoted in N
Hasham, ‘Any win a mandate to privatise: Baird’, op. cit.
[77]. G
Griffiths, ‘State election 2015’, Briefing Book, op. cit.
[78]. G Chan, ‘New
South Wales election: poll shows Mike Baird holds commanding lead’, op. cit.,
18 March 2015.
[79]. NSW
Government, NSW
gas plan, 13 November 2014, p. 2, accessed 11 December 2015.
[85]. Quoted in G
Griffiths, op. cit., see also S Nicholls, ‘Baird’s popularity rises above power
sale fears’, op. cit., 23 March 2015.
[102]. A
Green, 2015 New South Wales Election: analysis of results, op. cit., pp. 3-4.
[104]. Nile’s
support was contingent on an inquiry being conducted into the sale of
electricity assets, see, for example N Hasham, ‘Critics decry poles and wires inquiry’, Sydney
Morning Herald, 16 April 2015, p. 11, accessed 12 December 2015. On 25
November 2015 the NSW Premier and Treasurer announced the successful lease of
high voltage electricity asset Transgrid. See M Baird and G Berejiklian, ‘NSW achieves outstanding result in $10.258 billion TransGrid lease’, media release, 25 November 2015, accessed 2 February 2016.
[106]. A Green, 2015
New South Wales election: analysis of results, op. cit., see ‘Statistical
highlights’, pp 3–4.
[107]. G Griffiths,
State election 2015’, Briefing Book, op. cit., p. 14. The full ministry
list is available on the NSW
Parliament website, accessed 11 February 2016.
[120]. A Patrick, Credlin
& Co, Black Ink, Melbourne, 2016, p. 196.
[125]. A Patrick,
op. cit.
[126]. A Mitchell, Crikey, op. cit.
[127]. W Bowe, ‘Poll
Bludger: Liberal win more than some can Baird’, op. cit.
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