As Australia approaches its own poll, 2013 has seen three national elections across Southeast Asia. This
outlines the results and the controversies, and possible implications for Australia’s regional engagement.
Malaysia’s 5 May poll saw the
return of the ruling National Front (Barisan Nasional—BN) coalition which won a plurality of seats (133 out of 222) over the opposition People’s Alliance (Pakatan Rakyat—PR), despite recording the
lowest-ever share of the popular vote (46.5%).
Criticism of Malaysia’s electoral system and
allegations of fraud involving foreign voters featured heavily in the campaign with PR’s leader, Anwar Ibrahim, leading a series of rallies
protesting the results. More important to the outcome, however, was the effectiveness of BN’s rural campaign—
described by one analyst as ‘the visible tip of a party machine that reaches into the very heart of rural Malay society’.
While a major disruption to relations would have been unlikely, a PR victory may have been awkward for the Australian Government given that it had
rebuked Anwar’s repeated calls to send election observers, PR had publicly expressed some
scepticism towards the proposed ‘Malaysia-solution’ for dealing with regional people smuggling, and the fact that PR had said it would
review a controversial investment by an Australian mining company on environmental grounds.
BN’s victory does not, however, rule out controversies ahead. As one analyst
points out, probable post-election instability in BN and heightened concerns in Australia’s Parliament about Malaysia’s democratic record could both undermine bipartisan support for a stronger bilateral relationship.
The PhilippinesThe mid-term congressional elections in the Philippines on 13 May
encompassed contests for 18,000 elected positions, including 12 senators, 229 district members of the House of Representatives, and 80 provincial governors. These contests pitted President Benigno Aquino’s Liberal Party (LP)-led coalition against the opposition United Nationalist Alliance (UNA). The mid-terms were seen as an important test of recent reforms aimed at enhancing
participation, increasing
transparency, and curbing election-related
violence.
While Aquino’s coalition allies
fared well in both houses, the results also highlighted the entrenched
position of powerful dynasties in the Philippine political system.
Australia has publicly
supported some of President Aquino’s key reforms, including a 2012
peace accord aimed at resolving the longstanding conflict in the country’s south. Canberra will likely welcome his strengthened mandate. For his part, President Aquino has
called for closer strategic ties with Australia in the face of Manila’s heightened territorial and maritime disputes with China.
Cambodia Cambodia’s 28 July elections for its 123-member National Assembly attracted significant attention from human rights groups. Prime Minister Hun Sen, who heads the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP),
expelled 28 opposition members from parliament prior to the election.
Independent observers have highlighted
systemic flaws in Cambodia’s electoral process. Others, however, believe a growing urban youth vote offers longer-term
hope with young Cambodians ‘increasingly pushing for electoral reforms and more transparency in the electoral process’.
It seems this group had some impact. While its leader, Sam Rainsy, was ineligible to run, the opposition Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP) made significant ground, reducing the government’s majority by over 20 seats according to unofficial
results. Nevertheless, the CNRP has
rejected the result and
demanded an investigation into election irregularities, with UN involvement.
Prior to the poll, some members of the US Congress
called for cuts in aid to Cambodia if the elections were not deemed credible. Cambodian opposition politicians
encouraged other donors to consider similar measures. In 2013–14, Australia’s aid to Cambodia will reach an
estimated $97 million.
Others have
suggested that a punitive approach could be self-defeating and further strengthen the influence of other nations, particularly China, in Cambodia. Despite accelerating growth, Cambodia
remains a low-income country, with China the country’s
biggest investor and a major source of aid and trade. Like other Western donors, Australia faces difficult choices calibrating its support for Cambodia’s economic development in a political environment in which the CPP continues to dominate state institutions and curtail civic space.
Looking ahead…
The next two years will see national elections in Indonesia (2014), Thailand (2015), and Myanmar (2015).
Indonesia has made impressive strides in democracy over the last decade. The focus is now on the strength of the country’s democratic consolidation in the face of growing concerns about rising intolerance towards
religious minorities, the influence of
money politics, and the political and economic power of
local dynasties.
In Thailand, the politics of reconciliation remain finely
balanced and the elections will bring the future
role of controversial former Prime Minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, even further to the fore.
In Myanmar, where recent political reforms are in their early stages, opposition parliamentarian Aung San Suu Kyi has
said she will run for president should a constitutional review remove current restrictions on her eligibility. The prospect of some form of constitutional ‘grand bargain’ that addresses this issue, the country’s long-standing ethnic conflicts, and the future role of the military will be closely watched over the next couple of years.