List of Tables

List of Figures

Executive summary

The last decade has seen a major increase in both the scale and complexity of international population movements. The proportion of the global population for whom international movement is part of their calculus of choice as they examine their life chances has increased massively. The constellation of forces driving movement between countries is different and the context in which migration is occurring has been transformed in both origin and destination countries. A half century ago relatively few countries were influenced in a major way by international migration. Now a majority of the worlds nations are so affected. Australia was one of a handful of traditional migration countries (along with the US, Canada and New Zealand), which drew the bulk of their immigrants from Europe. Overwhelmingly the main type of international population movement was of more or less permanent migration involving settlement in the destination country.

This paper argues that in the contemporary situation the drivers of international migration have changed and as a result the international population movement influencing Australia has changed dramatically. Yet much Australian thinking and study of international migration remains anchored in a paradigm of migration which applied in the first four post-war decades. Policy making and research into international migration in Australia needs to be undertaken in such a way as to take account of the shifts which have occurred in the drivers of international migration and in the types of international movement affecting Australia.

Perhaps the greatest change which has occurred in Australian immigration in the last decade is that whereas in the first five post-war decades Australia emphatically eschewed acceptance of temporary workers in favour of an overwhelming emphasis on settlement migration there has been a reversal with a number of new visa categories designed to attract temporary residents to work in Australia (especially the temporary business and student visa categories). As a result there has been an exponential increase in non permanent migration to Australia so that while in 20012002 there were 88 900 incoming permanent settlers to Australia there were a total of 340 200 foreigners granted temporary residence in Australia in that year. On 30 June 2001 there were 554 200 people in Australia on a temporary basis of whom 289 300 had the right to work. These people differ in many important ways from permanent settlers but the bulk of our research and knowledge relates to the impact of the permanent settlers. The much larger numbers of temporary residents are also having significant effects on labour and housing markets as well as other areas of Australian society.

However, settler migration to Australia has also undergone profound change in the last decade or so. There has been a substantial reduction in the proportion of our migrants drawn from traditional sources of the UK and Europe while the numbers from Asia, Oceania and Africa have increased. Also our model of the immigrant settler being someone, who applies for immigration in a foreign country, is processed and then some time later arrives in the country needs modification. Three out of every 10 settlers to Australia are onshore immigrants in that they are already in Australia under a temporary residence visa and seek to transfer to permanent residence. There has been a substantial shift in the balance of the settlement program away from family and humanitarian to skill selected immigrants. Accordingly the labour market performance of recent migrants has improved substantially while in the United States and Canada it has declined. There has also been a substantial increase in governmental efforts to influence where new immigrants settle in Australia. There has been a raft of State Specific and Regional Migration Schemes introduced in an attempt to reduce the proportion of immigrants being attracted to Sydney, and, to a lesser extent, some other major urban centres.

There is a tendency for Australia to be thought of purely as an immigration country. Yet it has a substantial outflow of emigrants which has increased in recent years with the internationalisation of labour markets and other globalisation effects. It is estimated that there are around one million Australians living on a permanent or long term basis overseas. In relation to the resident population this is one of the worlds major diasporas. The of Australian residents is highly selective of young, highly educated, skilled and high income groups and has led to discussions of brain drain. Undoubtedly however, there is a brain gain since skilled immigrants outnumber their emigrant counterparts yet suspicions remain that we may be losing the brightest and best among our young people. The setting up a senate Inquiry into Australian Expatriates indicates the significance which is now being given to Australians overseas. It is argued that Australia needs to develop a policy toward its skilled workforce which includes four elementsrecruitment, retention, return and re-engagement. A diaspora policy is an important part of that. It should seek to include the diaspora more on a cultural level; it is important that expatriates who still consider themselves Australian are included more in the mainstream of Australian life. On an economic level, there are a myriad of ways in which the expertise, experience and contacts of the diaspora can be harnessed to benefit Australia in a rapidly globalising economy. We must realize that there is much to gain from young Australians leaving Australia and acquiring experience, knowledge and connections in foreign nations. However, if a substantial proportion can return, the country can gain a double dividendnot just retaining their talents but having those talents enhanced by the period away. Perhaps we should be working toward policies which facilitate brain circulation as opposed to attempting to stem brain drain.

There is no doubt that the last few years have seen a transformation of the scale, characteristics and significance of international population movements. This demands a continuous reassessment of Australias immigration policy and program as well as a full assessment of the global situation impinging on population movements to and from Australia. Australia can no longer confine its consideration of immigration to what is happening in Australia. The globalisation of capital, the transformation of international travel and communications systems, the instant worldwide distribution of information, the increasing levels of education, the internationalisation of many labour markets and the creation of political and environmental refugees, are among only a few of the processes and trends which are producing an exponential increase in all forms of international population movements and opening up such movement to a much broader spectrum of the worlds population. No nation can isolate itself from the global system of which population movement is an important part. These changes not only have important implications for people wishing to come to Australia, but also for Australian residents wishing to move elsewhere.

All of the worlds nations are facing challenges associated with the new global regime of international migration in what has been termed the Age of Migration. However, few are as well positioned to meet those challenges as Australia. The long experience as a country of immigration, especially during the post-Second World War era, has given Australia an almost unique capacity not only to cope with new migration pressures but also to develop policy and program approaches which maximise the benefit of those developments. Australia has developed a culture of migration in which there is broad acceptance in the community of the benefits that immigration can deliver. This contrasts sharply with community attitudes in many nations. Moreover, Australian politicians have developed a more sophisticated understanding of the issues surrounding migration and settlement than in most other nations so that the capacity to formulate, develop, introduce and operate sound and effective policy is considerable. Finally, it is often overlooked that Australia is one of very few nations that has had a federal government department devoted to immigration and settlement for more than half a century. This has meant that there has been the development of a skilled and committed cadre of immigration bureaucrats over a number of generations. This substantial body of people with a level of professionalism, knowledge and experience gives Australia a huge advantage in confronting the challenges created by the New Migration. The need for Management of Migration has become the mantra emerging from international fora, conferences, summits and meetings concerned with international migration. However, an essential element in any migration management is the availability of human resources, institutions and infrastructure to develop and operate effective management strategies and Australia is extremely well positioned in that respect.

Introduction

The last decade has seen a major increase in both the scale and complexity of international population movements.⁽¹⁾ The proportion of the global population for whom international movement is part of their calculus of choice as they examine their life chances has increased massively. The constellation of forces driving movement between countries is different and the context in which migration is occurring has been transformed in both origin and destination countries. A half century ago relatively few countries were influenced in a major way by international migration. Now a majority of the worlds nations are so affected. Australia was one of a handful of traditional migration countries (along with the US, Canada and New Zealand), which drew the bulk of their immigrants from Europe. Overwhelmingly the main type of international population movement was of more or less permanent migration involving settlement in the destination country.

The present paper argues that in the contemporary situation, the drivers of international migration have changed and as a result the international population movement influencing Australia has changed dramatically. Yet much Australian thinking and study of international migration remains anchored in a paradigm of migration which applied in the first four post-war decades. Policy making and research into international migration in Australia needs to be undertaken in such a way as to take account of the shifts which have occurred in the drivers of international migration and in the types of international movement affecting Australia. This paper attempts first to briefly consider the main dimensions of the new global international migration and then considers the shifts which are occurring in Australias international migration patterns. It concludes with a consideration of some of the implications for future policy development and research to inform that policy.

The new international migration

International migration has increased in scale and complexity as both a causal factor and effect of globalisation. For half of the post-war era, global international migration has been dominated by movement from Europe to the traditional migration countries of Australia, Canada, the United States and New Zealand. However almost all nations of the world are now influenced significantly by migration and non-Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) nations have become the dominant sources of migrants. One way in which the significance of the changes can best be demonstrated is by examining Table 1, which shows the numbers moving permanently between Australia and the United Kingdom since 1991. Australia has experienced a significant net gain of immigrant settlers from the UK for more than two centuries. Yet Table 1 indicates that while in the early 1990s, there were significantly more people moving permanently from the UK to Australia the net flow was reversed in 2001 and 2002. There was a net gain in 2003 but there may have been a new method adopted by the Department of Immigration, Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs (DIMIA) to make estimations.

Table 1: Australia: permanent migration to and from the United Kingdom

Year	From	To	Net
1991	20 867	6332	14535
1992	14465	6251	8214
1993	9484	5392	4092
1994	8661	4815	3846
1995	10 238	4835	5403
1996	10 520	5228	5292
1997	9001	5773	3228
1998	8424	6561	1863
1999	7211	6789	422
2000	7561	7466	95
2001	7027	7854	-827
2002	7525	8273	-748
2003	11 842	8408	3434

Source: DIMIA, Immigration update and Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Migration Australia, various issues.

This reflects a number of developments:

        Europe has been transformed from being the major global source of international migrants for much of the twentieth century to being a major destination for migrants

        London as one of the worlds global cities is now drawing people from all over the world due to its key role in the globalisation process⁽²⁾

        much of the contemporary flow from the UK is of people who come to Australia and seek temporary residence rather than permanent residence as working holiday makers, temporary business migrants and job transfers. Of course there is also a significant non-permanent flow from Australia to the UK.

Australia continues to be an important global player in migration but it is within quite a different context.

Figure 1 shows that in terms of total stock of migrants, Australia ranks ninth in the world. Other major destinations include the traditional migration countries, several European nations, areas of refugees settlement and Middle Eastern countries receiving large numbers of guest workers. Figure 2 indicates that Australia ranks similarly in the percentage that migrants make up of the total resident population in those destination countries.

Figure 1: Countries with the largest international migrant stock, 2000

Source: United Nations, International migration 2002, United Nations, New York, 2002.

Figure 2: Countries with the highest percentage of international migrant stock, 2000
(countries with population of one million or more inhabitants)

Source: United Nations, International migration 2002, United Nations, New York, 2002.

 Whereas the dominant global flow in the early post-war decades was from Europe to the traditional migration countries it now is from less developed to more developed nations, the so called south-north movement. In all more developed countries in 2000, 40 per cent of net population growth was due to net immigration from less developed countries (LDCs).⁽³⁾ Table 2, for example, indicates the estimated Asian-born population in a number of OECD nations.

Table 2: Traditional migration countries: Asian populations around 2001

	Europe/Japan	Australia	US	Canada	New Zealand	Total
	2000	2001	2001	1996	2001
Afghanistan	29 465	11 296	39 000	11 815	735	92 311
Bangladesh	91 701	9078	104 000	12 405	1185	218 369
Brunei	216	2068	na	4310	na	6594
Burma	187	10 973	22 000	3125	513*	36 798
Cambodia	48 879	22 979	92 000	19 505	4770	188 133
China	480 060	142 780	947 000	238 485	38 949	1 847 274
Hong Kong	10 720	67 124	223 000	249 175	11 301	561 320
India	248 800****	95 452	1 024 000	240 560	20 889	1 629 701
Indonesia	185 300***	47 158	72 000	9340	3792	317 590
Japan	9983	25 469	334 000	24 300	8622	402 374
Korea, Republic of	653 906	38 902	826 000	52 170	17 934	1 588 912
Laos	32 293	9565	117 000	14 905	1017	174780
Macao	84	1948	na	7110	na	9142
Malaysia	35 300****	78 858	39 000	20 930	11 460	185 548
Mongolia	136	126	na	20	na	282
Nepal	335	2628	na	540	na	3 503
Pakistan	932 568**	11 917	241 000	41 085	1317	1 227 887
Philippines	237 761	103 942	1 273 000	190 395	10 137	1 815 235
Singapore	2,574	33485	23 000	8580	3912	71 551
Sri Lanka	167 000	53 460	na	72 355	6168	298 983
Taiwan	1916	22 418	246 000	52 480	12 486	335 300
Thailand	82 100****	23 602	142 000	8085	5154	260 941
Vietnam	180 100****	15 4833	758 000	141 080	3948	1 237 961
Other Asia	na	12458	491 000	55 120	1485	560 036
Total Asia	3 431 384	982 519	7 013 000	1 477 875	165 774	13 070 552

^* 1996

^** 1997

^*** 1998

**** 1999

Source: ABS 2001 Census; US Census Bureau Current Population Survey 2001; New Zealand 2001 Census; Statistics Canada 1996 Census; OECD, Trends in international migration, 1999, 2000, 2001 and 2002.

The increased south-north mobility has taken a distinctive bifurcated form:

(a) barriers have been greatly reduced to the flow of the highly skilled between nations which has facilitated the permanent and temporary movement of skilled and wealthy persons, especially that from south to north countries, and

(b) barriers have been increasingly created against the flows of people who do not have high levels of education or wealth. Hence, while there is a flow of such people in the family and refugee-humanitarian components of migration from south to north countries, the flow is greatly constrained.

An important element in the south-north flow has been the increasing numbers of foreign students. Australia is one of the worlds major destinations of these students and in proportion to its native university students, Australia has the highest ratio of foreign students of any nation.

Figure 3 shows the growth of overseas students in Australian universities over the last two decades. It will be noted that the great majority are from Asian countries.

Figure 3: Overseas students in Australian universities, 19832001

Source: Department of Education, Training and Youth Affairs (DETYA) Selected higher education student statistics, various issues

The expansion of south-north migration has re-ignited debates about brain drain with increased flow of skilled migrants from less developed to more developed economies.⁽⁴⁾ There have been suggestions from commentators that destination countries accepting such migrants compensate origin countries for the costs incurred in educating and bringing up migrants. However, in the last few years, while there has been recognition of the negative effects of brain drain, it has been shown that can have positive developmental implications for origin nations. This results from remittance flows from expatriate communities, economic linkages developed between origin and destination countries and return migration.⁽⁵⁾ The developmental implications of south-north migration are far from simple and are not well understood.

Other important developments in global migration include the increasing flows between non OECD nations. These are not predominantly skilled migrants but involve, particularly, an increased flow of temporary contract workers and refugees are also significant especially in Africa. In addition, there has been an expansion in the level of undocumented migration and of trafficking, especially of women and children. This undocumented migration (as well as the legal movement) is greatly facilitated by the massive growth of the global immigration industry. This involves a complex web of migration agents, travel providers, immigration officials, police, recruiters, and job placement agencies who facilitate international movement. Part of this industry is illegal and in some areas has been penetrated by large criminal syndicates such as the mafia, yazuka (Japan) and Chinese snakeheads. It is now one of the most profitable and pervasive forms of international crime.

A distinctive feature of the new migration is the greatly increased involvement of women in international movement.

The elements driving the new patterns and levels of international migration are complex but some are briefly summarized below:

        the internationalisation of labour markets which has meant that many people now have knowledge of, and compete for, jobs in many countries

        the increasing demographic gradient between nations which has meant many developed economies (which have experienced low fertility over a long period) where local workforces are not growing or declining have labour shortages; while in less developed nations (where workforces are rapidly growing), labour surpluses are large

        widening gaps in economic well-being between less developed and more developed nations

        globalisation of media, which increases peoples information about other places

        universalisation of education in most countries

        reduction of time and travel costs between countries

        activities of transnational organisations especially companies with operations in many nations

        labour market segmentation, which has seen people in higher income countries eschewing low status, low income jobs which open up niches for migrants

        the proliferation of the international migration industry

        the increased involvement of national governments in origin countries realising the benefits that can accrue through migration

        the massive growth of social networks which facilitate the migration of family and friends by providing information about migration and help new migrants once they arrive at destinations.

All this has meant that international migration has become within the calculus of choice of a major part of the worlds population when they consider their life chances. The proliferation of migration networks and the migration industry have meant that international movement is being brought within reach of more and more of the worlds population. In addition to, and partly in response to, these global developments there have been a number of major shifts in Australian immigration policy and the impact has been a veritable sea change in the nature of Australian international migration. Before examining these shifts, it is necessary to make a few comments about the data sources employed.

The shift in Australias international migration regime must be seen in the context of a massive shift in global international population movement levels and patterns and the processes shaping them.⁽⁶⁾ Globalisation has seen an exponential increase in flows of goods, ideas, information, money and people between nations. However, while developed nations like Australia have sought to maximize the first four of these types of flows, most have sought to restrict the in-movement of people, especially those from south nations. Nevertheless, there is considerable evidence that international population movement is inextricably linked to the other flows which constitute globalisation.⁽⁷⁾ Moreover, the full implications of contemporary global political, social and economic change for evolving levels and patterns of international migration are yet to be established.

Some data considerations

One of the outcomes of Australias long history of substantial international migration is that the data sources regarding both stocks and flows of the movement are of high quality by international standards. Firstly, regarding flows, the main source employed here is the Movements Data Base (MDB) maintained by DIMIA. Each person entering or leaving Australia is required to complete arrival or departure cards containing questions on citizenship, birthplace, birth date, gender, occupation, marital status, type of movement, origin/destination, reason (for short-term movers only) and address in Australia. This information forms the basis of the MDB which is one of the few in the world to contain comprehensive information on both immigrants and emigrants. People leaving or coming in to Australia are classified into three types of categories according to their intended length of their stay in Australia or overseas:

        Permanent Movements

      Immigrants are persons arriving with the intention of settling permanently in Australia.

      Emigrants are Australian residents (including former settlers) departing with the stated intention of staying abroad permanently.⁽⁸⁾

        Long-Term Movements

      Overseas arrivals of visitors with the intended or actual length of stay in Australia of 12 months or more.

      Departures of Australian residents with intended or actual length of stay abroad of 12 months or more.

        Short-Term Movements

      Travellers whose intended or actual stay in Australia or abroad is less than 12 months.

Clearly there are some problems associated with the use of intentions as the key element in the definitions of type of movement for the MDB. It is apparent that there are no guarantees that intentions will become reality and as a result there is a significant amount of category jumping which occurs.⁽⁹⁾ Zlotnik has also been critical of the concept of residence used in these definitions as a fertile breeding ground for confusion.⁽¹⁰⁾ Nevertheless the MDB provides useful and comprehensive information on flows of people into and out of Australia which has few equals globally.

Turning to sources of information about the stocks of migrants, the quinquennial national censuses of population and housing are utilised. Table 3 shows the immigration-related questions asked at Australian censuses and indicates that a comprehensive range of questions has been asked, especially in post-war censuses. Of particular interest was the introduction from 1971 of a birthplace of parents question which has been in each subsequent census and the experiment with an ancestry question in 1986 and 2001. The latter has been excluded from several censuses because, although it produced a great deal of new insight into the diversity of Australias population, it generally failed to identify third and older generations of immigrants.⁽¹¹⁾ Censuses have been conducted in Australia each five years since 1961 and have a low rate of under-enumeration (less than 2 per cent). The census allows us to identify the first generation migrants and their Australia-born children and a number of their characteristics with a high degree of accuracy. However, the census does not provide information on former residents who have emigrated out of Australia. With respect to persons travelling out of Australia on a temporary basis, some information is obtainable if those persons left households behind who could report their absence in a question on the census schedule relating to usual residents who are absent on the night of the census. Visitors to Australia who happen to be in the nation on the night of the census are counted in the de facto enumeration but excluded from most data on birthplace.

Table 3: Immigration and ethnicity related topics included in Australian Population Censuses, 19112001

Topics Persons	1911	1921	1933	1947	1954	1961	1966	1971	1976	1981	1986	1991	1996	2001
Birthplace	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Birthplace of parents		*						*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Year of arrival	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*
(Period of residence in Australia)
Citizenship	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*(1)	*(1)	*(2)	*	*	*
Aboriginal/TSI origin	*	*	*	*	*	*	*(3)	*(4)	*(4)	*	*	*	*	*
(Race)
Ethnic origin											*(5)			*
Number of overseas residents or visitors								*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Language use		*(6)	*(7)						*(8)	*(9)	*(10)	*	*	*
Religion	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*

Source: J Paice, The 1990sis the Australian Census of Population and Housing revelant?; ABS, How Australia takes a census.

Notes:

(1) Prior to 1976, nationality rather than citizenship was asked.

(2) Since 1986 the person has been asked whether or not they were an Australian citizen.

(3) In all censuses prior to 1971 respondents were required to state their race and, where race was mixed, to specify the proportion of each.

(4) In the 1971 and 1976 censuses a question with response categories of European, Aboriginal, Torres Strait Islander and other was included.

(5) A question on each persons ancestry was asked for the first time in 1986.

(6) Question asked whether the person could read and write.

(7) Question asked whether the person could read and write a foreign language if unable to read and write English.

(8) The 1976 census asked for all languages regularly used.

(9) In 1981 ability to speak English was asked.

(10) Since 1986 two separate questions have been asked Language used and ability to speak English.

Changes in the origin of settlers to Australia

Table 4 demonstrates that for the bulk of Australias post European settlement history, immigration has been dominated by Europeans, especially people from the United Kingdom and Ireland. In the early post-war years European migration reached its peak both in numerical and proportional terms (Figure 4 and Figure 5).

Table 4: Europe-born persons in Australia, 18612001

Census Year	Per cent Overseas-Born	Europe-Born Population	Europe- Born Percent of all Overseas Born	British-Born Percent of all Europe Born
1861	62.8	671 049	92.8	93.8
1871	46.5	726 323	93.9	93.5
1881	36.8	757 514	91.5	92.0
1891	31.8	901 618	90.3	91.0
1901	32.8	753 832	88.5	90.6
1911	27.1	664 323	88.3	91.6
1921	25.5	744 244	89.1	88.8
1933	23.6	807 358	89.7	83.5
1947	9.8	651 606	87.8	57.7
1954	14.3	1 155 064	90.3	47.5
1961	17.0	1 596 212	90.2	47.5
1966	18.4	1 893 511	88.9	49.6
1971	20.2	2 196 478	85.7	50.0
1976	20.1	2 210 817	81.3	52.4
1981	20.9	2 232 718	75.0	52.4
1986	21.1	2 221 802	68.4	50.9
1991	22.5	2 300 773	62.4	51.1
1996	22.8	2 217 009	56.7	50.9
2001	23.1	2 136 052	52.0	50.9

Source: Price et al., Birthplaces of Australian population 18611981; Australian Censuses, 19012001.

Figure 4: Australia: immigrants from Europe, 19512003

Source: CBCS, Demography Bulletins; DIMIA, Australian immigration: consolidated statistics and Immigration update, various issues; DIMIA, unpublished data; ABS, Migration Australia, various issues.

Note: From 1960, data are for financial years. Prior to this, data are for calendar years.

Figure 5: Immigrants from Europe as a percentage of total immigrants, 19512003

Source: CBCS, Demography Bulletins; DIMIA, Australian immigration: consolidated statistics and Immigration update, various issues; DIMIA, unpublished data; ABS, Migration Australia, various issues.

Note: From 1960, data are for financial years. Prior to this, data are for calendar years.

There was a slowing down in the growth of the Australian European population in 1971 as the pressures to migrate out of many European countries diminished. At the same time the gradual dismantling of the White Australia Policy saw a considerable widening of the countries from which Australia drew settlers. Figure 6 shows how after 1970 the intake has increasingly been drawn from Asia, New Zealand and the Pacific, and to a lesser extent the Americas and Africa.

Figure 6: Australia: settler arrivals by region of last residence, 19472003

* Oct 1945June 1947

Source: DIMIA, Australian immigration: consolidated statistics and Immigration update various issues; DIMIA unpublished data.

The demographic impact of post-war immigration in Australia has been considerable. Rebecca Kippen and Peter McDonald of the Australian National University estimated that between the Second World War and 2000 immigration was responsible for adding 7 million to the population and that if post-war net immigration was zero the national population would be 12 million instead of over 19 million.⁽¹²⁾ However, more important than this numerical impact have been the social, cultural and economic transformations in which immigration has played a role. A major element in this has been the transformation of Australia from an overwhelmingly British dominated population to a multicultural society. Table 5 indicates this, showing that the proportion of the national population born in dominantly English speaking nations declined from 98.1 to 86 per cent between 1947 and 2001, while that born in Asian countries increased from 0.3 to 6.5 per cent. The shift which has occurred is evident in the rates of growth of various foreign-born groups.

Table 5: Change in the composition of the Australian population by place of birth, 1947 and 2001

	1947		2001
	Number of Persons	Per cent	Number of Persons	Per cent
English speaking origin	7 438 892	98.1	15 232 338	86.0
Australia	6 835 171	90.2	13 629 685	76.9
United Kingdom and Ireland	543 829	7.2	1 086 480	6.1
New Zealand	43 619	0.6	355 765	2.0
United States and Canada	10 304	0.1	80 983	0.5
South Africa	5969	0.1	79 425	0.4
Non-English speaking origin	140 466	1.9	2 485 110	14.0
Other Europe	109 586	1.4	1 046 967	5.9
Asia*	23 293	0.3	1 151 438	6.5
Other Africa	1531	0.0	104 811	0.6
Other America	1323	0.0	79 821	0.5
Other Oceania	4733	0.1	99 361	0.6
Total	7 579 358	100.0	17 717 448	100.0

Includes Middle East

Source: ABS, 1947 and 2001 Censuses.

Table 6 shows that the Russian Federation was the only European group among the 10 fastest growing birthplace groups in the nation in the 1990s expanding at 6 per cent per annum. It will be noted that virtually all of the 10 fastest growing countries are south nations, mainly from Asia. On the other hand, the slowest growing (indeed decreasing) birthplace groups were all European.

Table 6: Australia: fastest and slowest growing groups of foreign-born persons, 19912001*

Country of Origin	Number of Persons 2001	Per cent Growth per Annum 19912001
Fastest growing groups:
Iraq	24 832	16.9
Afghanistan	11 297	15.3
Samoa	13 254	8.7
Pakistan	11 917	7.2
Korea, Republic of	38 902	6.4
China	142 781	6.1
Russian Federation	15 020	6.0
Taiwan	22 418	5.6
Thailand	23 599	5.3
South Africa	79 425	4.9
India	95 455	4.5
Slowest growing groups:
Germany	108 220	-0.6
Cyprus	19 482	-1.3
Austria	19 313	-1.3
Malta	46 998	-1.3
Netherlands	83 325	-1.4
Spain	12 662	-1.5
Italy	218 718	-1.5
Portugal	15 441	-1.5
Greece	116 430	-1.6
Poland	58 113	-1.7
Hungary	22 752	-1.8

Countries with 10 000 or more persons in 2001.

Source: ABS, 1991 and 2001 Censuses.

Increased temporary migration

Perhaps the greatest change which has occurred in Australian immigration in the last decade is that whereas in the first five post-war decades Australia emphatically eschewed acceptance of temporary workers in favour of an overwhelming emphasis on settlement migration, there has been a reversal with a number of new visa categories designed to attract temporary residents to for work, business and study purposes.⁽¹³⁾ As a result there has been an exponential increase in non permanent migration to Australia so that while in 20012002 there were 88 900 incoming permanent settlers to Australia there were a total of 340 200 foreigners granted temporary residence in Australia in that year.⁽¹⁴⁾ On 30 June 2001 there were 554 200 people in Australia on a temporary basis of whom 289 300 had the right to work. Although there has been a long history of significant non-permanent flows to Australia the contemporary flow is quite different in scale, in the involvement of large numbers of temporary residents with the right to work and in a plethora of new kinds of temporary migration to Australia.⁽¹⁵⁾ As Boyle⁽¹⁶⁾ points out: It is the high intensity of exchanges and the new modes of contact that makes this an exciting new research arena.

A key point here is that Australian knowledge of immigration remains largely focused on permanent settlement.⁽¹⁷⁾ There has been some consideration of flows of temporary workers such as students, working holiday makers as well as skilled workers.⁽¹⁸⁾ Nevertheless, these studies concentrate mainly on policy issues and there remains little analysis of the characteristics of temporary migrants and how they compare with settlers and the non-migrant population. Further, there is little in the way of an assessment of the effects of this large scale movement on housing and labour markets in Australia or on regional demographic change.

The exponential increase in non-permanent migration has not been confined to Australia. In the United States, for example, there were 4.6 million immigrants admitted between 1995 and 2000 while 142.8 million non-migrants were admitted, of whom 2.2 million were temporary workers, 2.8 million students and 3.6 million others with the right to work.⁽¹⁹⁾ Indeed in the international literature there have been calls for replacing the concept of international migration which implies permanent settlement, with the term transnational migration. As Glick Schiller et al. point out:

several generations of researchers have viewed immigrants as persons who uproot themselves, leave behind home and country, and face the painful process of incorporation into a different society and culture A new concept of transnational migration is emerging, however, that questions this long-held conceptualisation of immigrants, suggesting that in both the US and Europe increasing numbers of migrants are best understood as transmigrants.⁽²⁰⁾

The new concept of transnational migration emphasises the two-way and circular nature of many flows between countries.⁽²¹⁾ However, as in Australia these temporary movements to more developed economies have attracted little research attention compared with permanent settlement. A partial exception is the transfer of highly skilled managerial and professional workers.⁽²²⁾ Nevertheless, careful studies of the nature, causes and impact of temporary movement compared with settlement are lacking especially in Australia. Despite this, policy makers in Australia and other more developed contexts are developing policies to encourage skilled temporary immigration.⁽²³⁾

The shifts in the balance between permanent and temporary immigration of skilled workers to More Developed Countries, together with a more general transformation in the global context of international migration, have greatly reduced the contemporary relevance of much existing research on Australian international migration. This presents a substantial challenge to researchers and policy makers alike.

This transformation can be seen in Table 7 which shows that over the last two decades there has been an increase in non-permanent movement. Firstly, regarding short-term movement, it is clear that there has been an acceleration in both foreigners visiting Australia and Australians going overseas on a short-term basis. Figure 7 shows there has been a consistent increase in the number of overseas visitors until 199798 when the onset of the crisis in Asia saw a downturn in tourists and business travellers from countries such as South Korea and Indonesia which were hit hardest by the crisis. There was also a flattening off in 200102 reflecting the downturn in international travel following the 11th September events and the impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). It will be noted that while the number of overseas visitors to Australia more than quadrupled over the period following 198283, the short-term movement of Australians overseas only increased by 153 per cent. Nevertheless, it is clear that short-term visiting has greatly increased and this represents much more than an expansion of global tourism. It also represents a new global regime in which many people work for considerable periods in more than a single country.

Table 7: Growth of population movement into and out of Australia, 198283 to 200203

		198283	200203	Percent Growth 19822003
Arrivals
Permanent		83 010	93 914	13.1
Long-term	- residents	48 990	95 784	95.5
	- visitors	30 740	184 095	498.9
	- total	79 730	279 879	251.0
Short-term	- residents	1 240 800	3 309 851	166.8
	- visitors	930 400	4 655 802	400.4
	- total	2 171 200	7 965 653	266.9
Departures
Permanent		24 830	50 463	103.2
Long-term	- residents	47 020	86 211	83.3
	- visitors	25 440	82 894	225.8
	- total	72 460	169 105	133.4
Short-term	- residents	1 259 100	3 293 336	161.6
	- visitors	907 500	4 714 636	419.5
	- total	2 166 600	8 007 972	269.6

Source: Bureau of Immigration and Population Research, Immigration update, June Quarter 1992; DIMIA, unpublished data.

Figure 7: Australia: short-term movements, 197071 to 200103

Source: DIMIA, Australian immigration: consolidated statistics and Immigration update, various issues; DIMIA, unpublished data.

However it is not only in short-term movement that there have been substantial changes. As indicated earlier, Australia has long had an emphasis on attracting permanent settlers to the country and a strongly expressed opposition to attracting temporary and contract workers. During the labour shortage years of the 1950s and 1960s, Australias migration solution to the problem contrasted sharply with that of European nations like Germany and France when it opted to concentrate on attracting permanent migrants to meet worker shortages rather than contract workers. However, in recent years attitudes have changed in Australia and it has been recognised that in the context of globalised labour markets it is essential to have mechanisms to allow non-permanent entry of workers in certain groups. Nevertheless, this form of entry has not been extended to unskilled and low-skilled areas and has been only open to people with particular skills and entrepreneurs. Hence there has been an increase in people coming to Australia as short-term or long-term entrants and being able to work here. There has been increasing pressure from some groups to include some unskilled workers to enter the country temporarily to meet labour shortages in some areas. The most notable example of this is in the area of harvest labour, especially in fruit, vegetables and vines where significant seasonal labour shortages have occurred in recent years.⁽²⁴⁾ Nevertheless, the Government has not responded positively to these suggestions.

Figure 8: Australia: long-term arrivals and departures, 195960 to 200203

Source: DIMIA, Australian immigration: consolidated statistics and Immigration update, various issues; DIMIA, unpublished data.

The significance of people coming to work in Australia temporarily is especially evident in the increase in long-term arrivals to Australia shown in Figure 8. This has had an impact, at least in the short-term, on overall net migration gains in Australia. It will be noted from Figure 9 that an increasing proportion of Australias net migration gain in recent years has been from an excess of long-term arrivals over long-term departures and a reducing proportion has been from an excess of settler arrivals over permanent departures. Indeed since 19992000 the net migration gain from long-term movement exceeded that from permanent movement.

Figure 9: Australia: net permanent and long-term movement as a percentage of total net migration gain, 19832003

Source: DIMIA, Immigration Update, various issues and unpublished data.

Figure 10 shows some recent trends in the major forms of temporary migration to Australia. One type of short-term movement of particular significance is the increasing tempo of migration of Asian students.⁽²⁵⁾ Over the 1987 to 2000 period the number of full-fee overseas students in Australia increased from 7131 to 188 277.⁽²⁶⁾ The crisis in Asia had some impact as shown but the numbers of new student visas given off-shore increased by 6 per cent to 67 130 over 199899, by 11 per cent to 74 428 in 19992000, by 15.5 per cent to over 86 000 in 200001, by 13 per cent to 97 560 in 200102 and by 12 per cent to 109 610 in 200203. The major sources are the USA (10 477 visas) and Asian countries such as the Peoples Republic of China (14 215), Korea (7323), Malaysia (8032) and Hong Kong (6576).

Figure 10 also shows that there has been a significant increase in working holiday maker (WHM) temporary migration in recent years. This has been comprehensively reviewed in 1997 by the Australian Parliament Joint Study Committee on Migration.⁽²⁷⁾ WHMs are foreign nationals aged 1830 from selected countries with which Australia has a reciprocal arrangement, who can work under certain conditions for up to 12 months. Their numbers have increased dramatically and reached 85 200 in 200102 and 88 758 in 200203, more than doubling in the 1990s. Kinnaird reports that while the economic impact nationally of WHM migration is limited it has significant impacts in specific industries in specific areas.⁽²⁸⁾ While Europeans dominate this category, there are significant numbers from Japan (9711 in 200203), Korea (5858) and Hong Kong (130).

Figure 10: Temporary migration to Australia by category, 1986 to 2003

Source: DIMIA Population flows: immigration aspects, various issues; A Rizvi, SOPEMI 2004: Australia.

Since 1995 there has been a new visa category in Australia of Temporary Business Migrants. These are five types:

        business visitors who come for short periods and are in the short-term arrival category

        temporary business residents who come for longer periods and are usually in the long-term arrival category

        independent executives who enter Australia for the purpose of establishing or buying into a business and managing that business

        medical practitionersqualified general and specialist medical practitioners where there is a demonstrated need for employing practitioners from overseas

        educationalthis visa is for qualified people to join educational and research organisations to fill academic teaching and research positions that cannot be filled from within the Australian labour market.

Figure 10 indicates there has been a fall in this category since a peak in 199697 and a slight decrease after 200102 primarily due to the impact of SARS.⁽²⁹⁾ Among the Business visitors, the USA accounts for 17.4 per cent and the United Kingdom 8.7 per cent and the main Asian groups are from China (19.4 per cent), Japan (6.3 per cent), India (4.8 per cent) and Indonesia (3.5 per cent). The Temporary Business Entry (Long Stay) subclass 457 visa enables highly qualified/skilled persons to enter Australia for up to four years to take up pre-nominated positions with approved Australian sponsor-employers, mostly in professional or management positions.⁽³⁰⁾ The number of visas granted fell by 8.7 per cent from 36 902 in 200001 to 33 705 in 200102 but increased by 12.2 per cent to 37 859 in 200203. Rizvi attributes the fall to the 30.8 per cent drop in the number of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) professionals applying from offshore and the downturn in the Australian ICT industry in 200102.⁽³¹⁾ This was offset by some increase in nomination from other groups. For example, nurses increased by 144 per cent from 1049 to 2563. Rizvi attributes the increase in the last year to the:

strong demand for skilled workers in the health industry with growth in the number of visas granted to registered nurses experiencing a 54 per cent increase in visa grants in 200203 over 200102 (1,901 visas in 200203 compared to 1,228 visa grants in 200102). Registered nurses are the largest single occupation sought by Australian employers. The Information, Communication and Technology (ICT) industry is the largest represented occupational group with 19.3 per cent of the top 50 occupations nominated by Australian employers seeking skilled overseas workers on a temporary basis.⁽³²⁾

Rizvi explains that at 30 June 2003, there were 56 344 subclass 457 visa holders in Australia, an increase of 2.4 per cent on the 30 June 2002 figure of 55 001.⁽³³⁾ Table 8 shows that Asians are not as predominant in this visa category as among some others, although four of the nine largest nations of origin are Asian (India, Japan, Korea and China).

Table 8: Temporary business entry visa grants 200102 and 200203

Country	200102	200203	% Growth
United Kingdom	9662	11 677	20.8
India	3078	3670	19.2
USA	2642	2846	7.7
Japan	2441	2278	-6.7
South Africa, Republic of	1892	2210	16.8
Irish Republic	1628	1648	1.2
Korea, Republic of	1608	1259	-21.8
PRC	1117	1165	4.3
Canada	1052	1138	8.1
Other countries	8653	9968	15.5

Source: ARizvi, SOPEMI 2004: Australia, p. 7.

As a result of the changed patterns of non permanent migration the number of temporary residents in Australia at any one time make up a significant proportion of the population.

Table 9: Temporary entrants to Australia

	Flow 20002001	Flow 200102	Flow 200203	Stock as at 30 June 2001	Stock as at 30 June 2002
Visitors	3 279 549	3 074 384	3 050 492	201 700	184 942
Overseas students	86 277	97 650	109 610	138 200	154 017
Working holiday makers	76 576	85 207	88 758	46 600	48 203
Temporary business visitors	260 957	258 020	254 180	12 600	12 462
Temporary business residents	40 493	33 705	37 859	56 000	55 001
Bridging visa holders(1)	-	-	-	63 200	61 431
Social, cultural, international relations program	37 912	35 167	34 252	25 700	26 849
Other	65 476	64 296	na	11 200	17 273
Total	3 847 240	3 648 429	na	554 200	560 178

(1) Bridging visas provide lawful status to non-citizens who would otherwise be unlawful.

Source: DIMIA, Population flows: immigration aspects, 2002; A Rizvi, SOPEMI 2004: Australia; DIMIA, Immigration, population and citizenship digest, 2003.

Table 9 presents official (DIMIA) estimates of the number of persons temporarily in Australia in mid-2001 and 2002. This indicates that there were over 200 000 people in Australia temporarily with work rights and a similar number without work rights. This represents a substantial number of people equivalent to 23 per cent of the permanently resident workforce. DIMIA estimates that at 30 June 2001 there were 554 200 persons in Australia on temporary visas 202 500 had been in Australia for less than three months, 193 800 between three and twelve months and 157 800 longer.⁽³⁴⁾ The largest group of the 554 200 were from the UK (93 400), followed by the USA (42 100), China (36 700), Japan (33 200) and Korea (33 100).

The increased flow of non permanent migrants has created problems for the ABS in calculating Australias annual levels of net migration. Since the mid-1980s the ABS has estimated net migration as the balance between permanent and long-term immigration and permanent and long-term . However, a problem in the approach arose through category jumping by people who changed their stated length of residence in, or absence from, Australia. The ABS overcame this through indirect estimates of this category jumping. A review of this in 1999 identified a number of problems in the methodology and the ABS announced in 2003, that given the increasing problems of estimating category jumping using this method, it would not estimate it until a new method could be devised.⁽³⁵⁾ McDonald, Khoo and Kippen showed that the failure to take into account category jumping is leading to a systematic over-estimation of net international migration. This is largely because the increasingly large number of long-term temporary migrants to Australia often leave the country on a short-term basis while in Australia (e.g. students returning home during vacations, temporary business migrants on business and holiday trips, etc.).⁽³⁶⁾ These people tend to identify as a long-term entrant on each arrival and as a short-term departure each time they leave on such a trip. This is leading to an over estimation of long-term arrivals. McDonald, Khoo and Kippen have proposed one new approach to estimating category jumping but it is understood the ABS is likely to adopt an alternative approach.⁽³⁷⁾

As a result, there is a degree of uncertainty about current estimates of net migration in Australia. Nevertheless a key dimension of recent net migration gains, however, is that in recent years an increasing proportion of that gain has been derived from an excess of long-term (as opposed to permanent) arrivals over long-term departures such that by 19992000 they accounted for over half of the net gains. This is evident in Table 10, which shows that net migration gains by permanent movement were much larger than net gains by long-term movement until the mid-1990s. With the introduction of new temporary business movement categories, not only did the numerical net gains of long-term movers increase but their size relative to net permanent gains also increased until 2000 when for the first time it was larger. In the subsequent years the gap has increased such that in 2002 long-term net gains were twice as large as net permanent gains. This represents a significant departure in Australian immigration and raises a number of issues including the following:

        to what extent is the excess of long-term arrivals over long-term departures for the reasons discussed above? What is clear, however, is that even allowing for these problems, there is still an excess of long-term arrivals over long-term departures and this raises a number of important questions.

        to what extent is the long-term net gain a temporary phenomenon, which will eventually disappear? If all workers arriving under visa categories like temporary business, working holiday, student, etc. eventually leave Australia, one would expect the losses to eventually be more or less equal to the gains.

Table 10: Components of net overseas migration (000), 19832003

Year Ended 30 June	Permanent Movement			Long-Term Movement			Category Jumpersa	NOM	Permb	L-tb
	Arrivals	Departures	Net	Arrivals	Departures	Net
1983	93.0	24.8	68.2	79.7	72.5	7.3	-2.2	73.3	90.4%	9.6%
1984	68.8	24.3	44.5	76.5	74.4	2.0	2.6	49.1	95.6%	4.4%
1985	77.5	20.4	57.1	85.7	74.9	10.9	5.7	73.7	84.0%	16.0%
1986	92.6	18.1	74.5	93.8	74.4	19.4	6.4	100.4	79.3%	20.7%
1987	113.5	19.9	93.6	90.9	75.4	15.5	16.6	125.7	85.8%	14.2%
1988	143.5	20.5	123.0	98.8	78.6	20.2	6.1	149.4	85.9%	14.1%
1989	145.3	21.6	123.7	104.6	91.0	13.6	20.2	157.4	90.1%	9.9%
1990	121.2	27.9	93.4	110.7	100.2	10.5	20.8	124.6	89.9%	10.1%
1991	121.7	31.1	90.6	114.7	110.5	4.2	-8.3	86.4	95.6%	4.4%
1992	107.4	29.1	78.3	126.8	115.2	11.6	-21.3	68.6	87.1%	12.9%
1993	76.3	27.9	48.4	127.4	113.2	14.2	-32.6	30.0	77.3%	22.7%
1994	69.8	27.3	42.5	137.6	112.7	24.9	-20.8	46.5	63.1%	36.9%
1995	87.4	26.9	60.5	151.1	118.5	32.6	-12.9	80.1	65.0%	35.0%
1996	99.1	28.7	70.5	163.6	124.4	39.2	-5.5	104.1	64.3%	35.7%
1997	85.8	29.9	55.9	175.2	136.7	38.5	-7.3	87.1	59.2%	40.8%
1998	77.3	32.0	45.3	188.1	154.3	33.8	7.2	86.4	57.3%	42.7%
1999	84.1	35.2	49.0	187.8	140.3	47.5	-11.0	85.1	50.7%	49.3%
2000	92.3	41.1	51.2	212.8	156.8	56.1	-8.2	99.1	47.7%	52.3%
2001	107.4	46.5	60.9	241.2	166.4	74.8	-	135.7	44.9%	55.1%
2002	88.9	48.2	40.7	264.5	171.4	93.0	23.1	110.6	30.4%	69.6%
2003	93.9	50.5	43.4	279.9	169.1	110.8	-28.9	125.3	28.1%`	71.9%

Source: DIMA, Population flows: immigration aspects, 2000, p. 106; ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics: June Quarter 2003, p. 24.

^a Category jumping is the net effect of persons whose travel intentions change from short-term to permanent or long-term, or vice versa.

^b The percentage contributions of permanent and long-term movement are based on the net migration totals before adjustment for category jumpers.

        Clearly, there is some leakage across from long-term to permanent settlement. It has been estimated that in 200001 about 10 per cent of skilled temporary entrants changed to permanent residence.⁽³⁸⁾ This suggests that there is significant category jumping from long-term to permanent status and hence some double counting in the net gains of permanent and long-term residents. The extent of category jumping has been estimated by the ABS and is included in Table 10. It would appear that the category jumping has been quite large (35 100) in 2002 suggesting that this is becoming a most important phenomenon. Table 11 presents data regarding the number of holders of a subclass 457 (Temporary Business Long Stay Migrants) visa who were granted permanent residence over the 19992001 period. This indicates that a significant proportion of this group are transferring to permanent residence and the numbers and rate appear to be increasing.

A number of issues flow from the last point. To what extent is temporary entry now becoming a de facto settlement migration category? To what extent are individual persons seeing temporary entry as a strategy to eventually obtain permanent residence? To what extent have people who intended to come to Australia to work and live for a limited period entered as settlers in the past because there was no temporary visa category available to thembut since 1995 have come into Australia under the new temporary visa categories?

Table 11: Australia: temporary business long stay migrants (Category 457) who were granted permanent residence 19992001

Year	Number Granted Permanent Residence	As a Percent of 457 First Arrivals	As a Percent of all Business Temporary Residence Visas
19992000	3019	27.8	8.6
20002001	5699	41.8	14.1

Source: GJ Hugo, Temporary migration to Australia, 2003.

The Government has introduced some mechanisms to facilitate the transfer from temporary to permanent residence. For example, some categories of foreign students can obtain more or less automatic permanent residence if they have particular skills in high demand in the labour market. Accordingly, in 200203 more than a half of skilled migrants accepted into Australia as permanent residents had a qualification from an Australian university.

Table 12: Australia: origin countries of permanent and temporary resident arrivals 200203

	Permanent Resident Arrivals		Temporary Resident Arrivals
Region	No.	%	No.	%
UK/Ireland	12 346	13.1	96 700	39.5
Northern Europe	2285	2.4	39 000	16.0
Southern and Eastern Europe	4674	5.0	2900	1.2
North America	2521	2.7	31 700	13.0
Other America	1064	1.1	2 000	0.8
Asia	34 529	36.7	59 600	24.4
Middle East	7827	8.3	2100	0.9
Africa	10 859	11.5	7900	3.2
Oceania	18 021	19.1	2700	1.1
Other/Not Stated	12	0.0	100	0.5
Total	94 138	100.0	244 700	100.0

Source: DIMIA, unpublished tabulations.

The interface between permanent and temporary work-related migration to Australia is an important area of both policy and theoretical significance but little is currently known regarding it. There are a number of important ways in which the temporary migrant intake differs from the permanent migration intake which need to be taken into account⁽³⁹⁾. These include:

        the origins of temporary migrants are more focused on traditional origin countries than permanent migrants. Table 12 shows that Europe and North America account for 70.5 per cent of temporary resident arrivals and 23.2 per cent of permanent arrivals

        the temporary migrants have a more skilled profile, and

        the temporary migrants are more concentrated in Sydney and New South Wales.

Increasing onshore migration

Following from the increasing inflow of temporary residents has been a substantial increase in the proportion of new settlers in Australia who apply for settlement from within Australia because they are already in Australia as temporary residents. This reflects the strong connection and inter-relationship between various types of migration to Australia. Indeed, the Longitudinal Survey of Immigrants to Australia (LSIA) found that 43 per cent of all settlers coming to Australia had been to Australia previously30 per cent on tourist visas and 5 per cent on student visas. This points to the growing interconnections between the various different types of international migration affecting Australia.

Figure 11 shows that there has been an increase in the numbers of onshore settlers to Australia. In the early 1990s an important group who transferred from temporary to permanent status were the temporary residents of Chinese origin who were granted temporary protection visas following the Tiananmen Square incident. Many later applied for, and were granted, permanent residency. Others included people who came to Australia on holiday or to study and subsequently married an Australian. In recent years, however, the numbers of temporary residents seeking to become settlers has expanded. Indeed the Government has facilitated this process in some cases. It has been made easier, as noted, for students who have studied in Australia and gained an Australian qualification to become a settler on completion of their courses. There are also a significant number of the people entering Australia as temporary residents with temporary business visas who subsequently apply to settle in Australia. One study of long-standing temporary residents (Visa subclass 457) has found that 41.8 per cent of the group arriving in 200001 subsequently applied for permanent residency.⁽⁴⁰⁾ Of particular interest currently are the substantial numbers of onshore asylum seekers who were granted Temporary Protection Visas. These were usually issued for three years and the next year will see this period having elapsed so that many of the holders will be onshore applicants to become permanent settlers.

Figure 11: Australia: onshore residence visa grants, 198990 to 200203

Source: DIMIA Population Flows: Immigration Aspects, various issues and A Rizvi, SOPEMI 2004: Australia.

Table 13 shows how the various settlement categories are split between offshore and onshore applicants. It will be noted that in comparison with other recent years, the number of onshore applicants under the Refugee/Humanitarian category has been drastically reduced due to the Government interventions discussed earlier. However, it will be noted that the proportion of family settlers who are onshore (29.5 per cent) is a little greater than is the case for skilled settlers (27.7 per cent). This is mainly due to the substantial number of cases where temporary residents have partnered with an Australian resident and qualified to settle under the spouse/fianc sub-categories, more than a third of whom are onshore. Among the skilled migrants, it is among the Employer Nominated and Regional Migration programs that the highest rate of onshore settlement occurs. These are clearly cases where people have entered as students or other workers and worked for an employer who has subsequently nominated them for permanent residence.

Table 13: Migration Program 200203, offshore and onshore outcomesrefugee/humanitarian

Category or Component	Offshore Outcome	Onshore Outcome	Total Outcome	Percent Onshore
Spouse/interdependency(a)	19 060	10 670	29 710	35.9
Child(b)	2410	270	2680	10.1
Parent	370	150	510	29.4
Preferential/Other Family(c)	1570	960	2520	38.1
Fiance(a)	5350	-	5350	-
Total Family	28 760	12 040	40 790	29.5
ENS/LA/RSMS/STNI(d)	2770	7760	10 540	73.6
Business Skills(e)	5020	1720	6 740	25.5
Distinguished Talents	60	120	180	66.7
Skilled Independent	30 210	7920	38 120	20.9
Skilled Australian Sponsored(f)	9710	750	10 470	7.2
1 November	-	20	20	100.0
Total Skill	47 770	18 280	66 050	27.7
Special Eligibility	210	1010	1230	82.1
Total Program/Outcome	76 740	31 330	108 070	29.0
Refugee/Humanitarian	11 656	869	12 525	6.9

Source: A Rizvi, SOPEMI 2004: Australia, p. 21.

        Figures have been rounded and totals may not be the exact sum of components.

        Outcome does not include permanent visas granted to New Zealand citizens (270 in 200203).

(a)            Net outcome as places in the Migration Program taken by provisional visa holders who do not subsequently obtain permanent visas are returned to the Program in the year the application for permanent residence was refused or withdrawn (a total of 2,650 in 200203).

(b)            Includes child-adoption, child dependent and orphan minor.

(c)            Includes aged dependent relatives, carers, orphan unmarried relatives and remaining relatives.

(d)            Includes Employer Nomination Scheme, Labour Agreement, Regional Sponsored Migration Scheme and State/Territory Nominated Independent Scheme.

(e)            Net outcome as cancelled visas are returned to the Program in the year in which they are cancelled (a total of 840 in 200203).

(f)             Skilled Australian Sponsored categories includes skills tested brothers, sisters, nieces, nephews, non-dependent children, working age parents, grandchildren and first cousins.

Another dimension of onshore migration has been the change in the pattern of refugee/humanitarian migration. Australia has settled more refugees per 1000 residents than any country except Canada but most of these settlers were accepted from refugee camps based in foreign countries and were hence offshore settlers. Australias offshore humanitarian migration program comprises two elements:

        The Refugee Program which provides protection for people outside their country fleeing persecution.

        Special Humanitarian Programs (SHP) which comprise the In-country Special Humanitarian Program for people suffering persecution within their own country, and the Global Special Humanitarian Program for people who have left their country because of significant discrimination amounting to a gross violation of human rights.

However, in recent years Australia has been forced to consider an onshore component in this program with the increased numbers of asylum seekers arriving in the country. Figure 12 shows that the number of unauthorised arrivals in the country, the bulk who apply for asylum, decreased dramatically following the introduction of a range of policy initiatives.⁽⁴¹⁾ The unauthorised arrivals include both those coming by air without proper documentation and the so-called boat people.

Figure 12: Australia: unauthorised arrivals, 1989-90 to 2002-03

Source: DIMIA, Unauthorised Arrivals by Air and Sea, Fact Sheet 74, 2002.

* To 15 October 2002

Accordingly, a new category in the humanitarian program in recent years is the Temporary Protection Visa (TPV). This was introduced in October 1999 and is granted to most of the asylum seekers who enter Australia unlawfully and who are assessed as meeting the requirements for refugee status. This is in contrast to those refugees who settle in Australia under the two traditional offshore categories listed above, and Table 14 shows the substantial differences between the two groups in rights and access to services. The Government maintains that this differentiation acts as a deterrent to undocumented immigrant arrivals and encourages refugees to stay in their country of first asylum, while critics argue that the creation of two classes of refugees is unfair and not within the spirit of the 1951 UN Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees.⁽⁴²⁾ A later section discusses the marked increase in the number of asylum seekers arriving in Australia by boat or plane without documentation in the 19992001 period although there were very few arrivals in 2002 and 2003 following the Australian Governments decision to process asylum applications offshore as part of the Pacific Solution.⁽⁴³⁾

Table 14: Refugee entitlements in Australia, November 1999

Entitlements	Permanent Protection Visas	Temporary Protection Visas
Social Security	Immediate access to the full range of social security benefits	Acccess only to Social benefit for which a range of eligibility criteria apply. Ineligible for Newstart, Sickness Allowance, Parenting Payment, Youth Allowance, Austudy and a range of other benefits
Education	Same access to education as any other permanent resident	Access to school education subject to state policy. Effective preclusion from tertiary education dues to imposition of full fess
Settlement Support	Access to full range of DIMA settlement support services	Not eligible for most DIMA funded services, such as Migrant Resource Centres and ethno-specific community welfare agencies. Can use Early Health Assessment and intervention Programs
Family Reunion	Able to bring members of immediate family (spouse and children) to Australia	No family reunion rights (including reunion with spouse and children)
Work Rights	Permission to work	Permission to work, but ability to find employment influenced by temporary nature of visa and poor English skills
Language Training	Access to 510 hours of English language training	Not eligible for the Federally funded English language programs: the Adult Migrant English Program (AMEP) or the Advanced English for Migrants Program (AEMP)
Medical Benefits	Automatic eligibility for Medicare	Eligibility for Medicare subject to lodgement of application for a permanent visa
Travel	Will be able to leave the country and return without jeopardising their visa	No automatic right of return

Source: Australian Refugee Council, Position on Temporary Protection Visas, November 1999, 2000.

Table 15 shows the numbers of TPVs granted to asylum seekers arriving in Australia over the 19992003 period.

Table 15: Temporary Protection Visas granted, 19992003

19992000	871
20002001	4456
20012002	3892*
20022003	275

^* Total onshore protection visas granted

Source: DIMIA, Temporary Protection Visas, Fact Sheet 64, 2002; DIMIA, Unauthorised arrivals by air and sea, Fact Sheet 74, 2003.

The composition of Australias humanitarian program in recent years is shown in Table 16. This indicates that the total intake in 200203 was 12 545, slightly more than in the previous year (12 349) but less than in 200001 (13 773). It is interesting that only 6.9 per cent of the intake (866 persons) were onshore migrants. This represents a substantial change to 200102 when 31.5 per cent of humanitarian migrants were onshore. This reflects the impact of Australias Pacific Solution and other policies designed to deter asylum seekers landing in Australia.

Table 16: Outcomes of Australias Humanitarian Program by component and category from 199798 to 200203

Component	Category	9798	9899	9900	0001	0102	0203
	Refugee	4010	3988	3802	3997	4160	4376
Offshore	SHP	4636	4348	3051	3116	4258	7280
	SAC**	1821	1190	649	879	40	-
Onshore		1588	1834	2458	5741	3891	866
Temporary Humanitarian					164	6	3
Total		12 055	11 360	9 960*	13 773	12 349	12 525

Source: A Rizvi, SOPEMI 2003: Australia, 2002, p. 29 and SOPEMI 2004: Australia, 2003, p. 47.

* In this year there were 5000 temporary safe haven visas to Kosovars offshore (4000) and Timorese (1900)

** Special Assistance Category (now defunct)

Increasing undocumented migration

As indicated earlier, there has been an increase in global forces encouraging international migration but also a strengthening of barriers to this migration except for that of the highly skilled. Accordingly there has been a global proliferation of undocumented migration and the growth of an industry to facilitate that migration.⁽⁴⁴⁾ Although being an isolated island protects Australia against this to some extent, Australia is now being influenced by undocumented migration of three types:

        overstaying whereby non-citizens enter Australia legally but overstay the term of their visa (overstayers)

        where non-citizens entering Australia legally otherwise ignore the terms of their visa, e.g. persons on a tourist visa working

        clandestine entry of non-citizens who do not pass through an immigration control point (illegal entrants).

In this section we will concentrate on the first and third of these types.

Table 17: Australia: number of overstayers, 19902003

	Number	Number from Asia	Per cent
30 June 2003	59 800	na
30 June 2002	60 000*	na
20 June 2001	60 102	27,823	46.29
31 December 2000	58 674*	na
30 June 2000	58 748*	27,808	47.34
December 1999	53 131*	na
June 1999	53 143	23,741	44.67
June 1998	50 949	21,461	42.12
December 1996	45 100	na
June 1995	51 307	na
June 1993	79 755	na
April 1992	81 400	na
April 1990	90 000	na

Source: DIMIA, Population flows: immigration aspects, various issues; DIMIA, Locating overstayers in Australia, Fact Sheet 80, 2002, A Rizvi, SOPEMI 2004: Australia, 2003, p. 74.

* Excludes unauthorised arrivals by air and by boat.

Note: The introduction of the bridging visa scheme on 1 September 1994 influences the figures since prior to this time persons who did not have a valid visa but had come to the Departments attention and were waiting for a visa determination or to leave the country were regarded as overstayers. Subsequently these people were not considered overstayers.

Much is known in Australia about overstayers since there is a high quality Movement Data Base and all persons arriving in and departing from the country are required to complete a card which facilitates matching and detection of overstayers. Table 17 shows that through the 1990s around 50 000 overstayers have been identified using this matching. In June 2003 there were 59 800 overstayers of whom 29 per cent had been in Australia for more than 9 years and 19 per cent had been in the country for less than one year. Some 81.7 per cent of overstayers were persons who had overstayed tourist visas, 5.0 per cent temporary residents and 6.7 per cent students. The overstay rate was 0.48 per cent comprising 18 800 overstayers from 3 962 910 visitors in 200203 and 0.47 per cent of visa arrivals in 200102.⁽⁴⁵⁾ It is estimated that approximately half of overstayers work illegally in Australia.⁽⁴⁶⁾

Turning to the people who enter Australia illegally, it is clear that Australia has in recent times become a more important target for such movements. There are, of course, no data on persons who have been successful in such attempts but there are on the numbers that have been detected. These can be divided into those detected arriving by air and those coming by boat. The undocumented migrants arriving by air arrive either with no travel documents or present documentation which is found to be fraudulent but which they might have used for check-in at overseas airports. While many arrive as individuals, planning their own travel, some are part of organised people trafficking organisations which have become more active across the Asian region. It will be noted that the numbers arriving by air increased markedly in the 1990s and peaked at 2106 in 199899. Thereafter they fell to 1695 in 19992000, 1508 in 200001 and 1193 in 200102. The reasons for the fall in unauthorised arrivals in airports are not clear but may be associated with:

        sanctions on air carriers for bringing in unauthorised people leading to them checking documents of all incoming passengers more closely prior to travel

        feedback that such arrivals unable to make a case for asylum are sent back to where they came on the next available plane, and

        an increase in the use of boats among unauthorised arrivals.

The countries from which the unauthorised air arrivals originated are shown in Table 18. It will be noticed that there has been some significant variation over the years. In the years of largest gain Iraq, China, Indonesia and Sri Lanka were the largest groups.

However, in recent years the numbers from these origins have declined. The decline in the number of Iraqis is most interesting and dramatic (from 325 in 199899 to 37 in 200001) given their increasing numbers among boat arrivals. In recent times South Korea, New Zealand, Thailand and Malaysia have become more important with, in some cases, these being places of transit rather than the original place of birth/residence of the unauthorised arrivals.

Turning to people who seek to clandestinely enter Australia by boat, one small group are those who are detected aboard incoming ships who are stowaways. In 199899 these numbered 61, in 19992000, 26 and in 200001, 29. However, the main focus of attention regarding unauthorised arrivals has been on the so-called boat people.⁽⁴⁷⁾ The numbers arriving on the northern shores of Australia from Indo-China over the period 197689 numbered only 2059 persons, although they attracted a great deal of attention.⁽⁴⁸⁾ However, in the 1990s the numbers increased and reached unprecedented levels in 19992000 as Table 19 indicates. The period 19992001 saw 8315 boat people detected compared with 1083 in the previous two years. This became the most discussed migration issue in Australia in recent years and it was a major element in the lead up to the 2001 national election.⁽⁴⁹⁾

Table 18: Main source countries for people refused immigration visas at Australian airports, 19952003

Source Country	199596	199697	199798	199899	19992000	200001	200002	200203*
China	92	235	268	112	73	65	95	33
Iraq **	34	90	140	325	157	37	na	na
Indonesia	110	124	132	97	54	92	48	5
Sri Lanka	15	205	118	58	47	29	na	na
Somalia	87	110	78	30	11	3	na	na
Thailand	25	94	77	93	74	100	83	24
Kuwait**	0	19	61	32	4	2	na	na
New Zealand	49	40	59	92	107	111	128	26
South Korea	6	12	52	159	108	136	99	28
Algeria	21	61	51	87	14	2	na	na
Malaysia	na	na	na	na	na	na	160	24
United Kingdom	na	na	na	na	na	na	57	15
United States	na	na	na	na	na	na	61	5
India	na	na	na	na	na	na	41	1
Japan	na	na	na	na	na	na	31	1
Other	224	360	519	1021	1045	931	390	62
Total	663	1350	1550	2106	1694	1508	1193	224

Source: DIMA, Unauthorised arrivals by air and sea, Fact Sheet 81, 2000; DIMIA, Unauthorised arrivals by air and sea, Fact Sheet 74, 2002.

* To 15 October 2002

** The figures used refer to the origin country of arrivals because citizenship is sometimes difficult to determine.

Table 19: Numbers of boats and persons aboard arriving clandestinely in Australia and detected, 1989 to 200203

Year	Number of Boats	Total Arrivals	Minimum/Maximum on Board
198990	3	224	26/119
199091	5	158	3/77
199192	3	78	10/56
199293	4	194	2/113
199394	6	194	4/58
199495	21	1,071	5/118
199596	14	589	4/86
199697	13	365	4/139
199798	13	157	3/30
199899	42	920	2/112
19992000	75	4,174	3/353
200001	54	4,141	2/231
200102	6	1,212	60/359
200203	1	65	65

Source: DIMIA, Unauthorised arrivals by air and sea, Fact Sheet 74, 2002.

The status regarding the 13 540 boat people who arrived in Australia since 1989 is shown in Table 20. It will be noted that some 68.9 per cent have been granted entry to Australia although 59.7 per cent had Temporary Resident Visas and only 8.9 per cent had been given permanent resident status. More than a fifth (27.3 per cent) had been repatriated.

Table 20: Australia: boat people, 19892003 status as at 17 April 2003

	Number	Percent
Removed	3702	27.3
Still in Detention	470	3.5
Granted Temporary Protection Visa	8077	59.7
Granted PPV	1200	8.9
Granted BVE	45	0.3
Other	3	0.0
Escaped	43	0.3
Total Unauthorised Boat Arrivals	13540	100.0

Source: DIMIA, Temporary Protection Visas, Fact Sheet 64, 2003.

An increasing focus on skills in migration

There are three main components in the non-humanitarian part of the Australian migration programSkill, Family, and Special Eligibility, the details of which are presented in Table 21. Some components, i.e. Business Skills, Employer Nominated Scheme (ENS), Distinguished Talent, Spouses and Dependent Children are demand driven and not subject to capping. Increases in demand for these visas, beyond planned levels, are compensated by reductions in other program components, i.e. Independent and Skilled-Australian Linked, Parents, Fiancs and Interdependents. Family Migration consists of a number of categories under which a potential migrant can be sponsored by a relative who is an Australian citizen or permanent resident of Australia. For statistical purposes the various Family Migration classes and sub-classes were grouped in the following categories up to 199697:

        Preferential

      Spouse

      Prospective marriage

      Child

      Adoption

      Parent (meeting the balance of family test)

      Aged dependent relative

      Remaining relative

      Orphan relative

      Special need relative

        Concessional

      Non-dependent child

      Non-dependent brother or sister

      Non-dependent niece or nephew

      Parent of working age not meeting the balance of family test.

Table 21: Program Management Structure (200102) Migration (non-Humanitarian) Program

Skill	Family	Special Eligibility
Skilled Independent & Skilled-	Parents and Preferential Family	Can be capped
Australian Sponsored*	Can be capped subject to demand in all other Family categories
Points tested
Planning level adjusted subject to	Fiancs & Interdependents
demand in Business Skills and ENS	Can be capped subject to demand for spouse and dependent child places
Business Skills, ENS & Distinguished Talent
Demand driven	Spouses & Dependent Children
	Demand driven
	Exempt from capping
Contingency Reserve
To be utilised if States and Territories, business employers and
regional authorities generate additional demand, and for ICT professionals with Australian qualifications

Source: DIMIA, Population flows: immigration aspects, 2002a

* Formerly Independent and Skilled-Australian Linked (until July 1999)

The Skill Migration component of the migration program is designed to contribute to Australias economic growth. It consists of a number of categories for prospective migrants where there is demand in Australia for particular occupational skills, outstanding talents or business skills. These categories are:

        Independent migrantsnot sponsored by an employer or relative in Australia. Applicants must pass a points test which includes skills, age and English language ability (21 778 visas in 200102)

        Skilled-Australian Linkedcommenced on 1 July 1997 (replacing the Concessional Family Category). Applicants must pass a points test on skills, age and English ability and receive additional points for sponsorship by relatives in Australia (4586 visas in 200102). Also includes Regional Linked for those sponsored by relatives in regional areas (not points tested)

        Employer sponsoredEmployers may nominate (or sponsor) personnel from overseas through the Employer Nomination Scheme (ENS), Regional Sponsored Migration Scheme (RSMS) and Labour Agreements. These visas enable Australian employers to fill skilled permanent vacancies with overseas personnel if they cannot find suitably qualified workers in Australia. A total of 1817 visas were granted in 200102

        Business Skills migrationencourages successful business people to settle permanently in Australia and develop new business opportunities (6409 visas in 200102)

        Distinguished talentfor distinguished individuals with special or unique talents of benefit to Australia (72 visas in 200102).

There are also several categories which cater for other types of visaed settler arrivals but are not included in the categories above. These are:

        former citizen of Australia

        former resident of Australia

        family of New Zealand Citizen for dependants of New Zealand citizens who have settled or intend to settle permanently in Australia.

In addition there are a number of categories for which visas were not required prior to 1 September 1994. These are:

        New Zealand Citizens, which refers to the arrival of New Zealand citizens under the Trans-Tasman Travel Arrangement, and

        Other (Non-Visaed) which refers primarily to the arrival in Australia of children born to Australian citizens overseas. It also includes residents of Cocos (Keeling) Islands, Norfolk Island, etc., and persons granted Australian citizenship overseas.

The 2002-03 migration program resulted in 108 070 non-humanitarian immigrants settling in Australia.⁽⁵⁰⁾ This was the largest intake for over a decade. It was also the most number of skilled immigrants ever taken by Australia.⁽⁵¹⁾ The planning levels over the 200105 period are within the range of 100 000 and 110 000 places (66 000 in the Skill stream) per year and the actual level will depend upon:

        application rates in demand driven categories

        take up of state and regional specific categories

        extent of national skill shortages, and

        availability of high standard applicants.⁽⁵²⁾

Figure 13 presents the breakdown of the numbers in each category for the year 200203.

Figure 13: Categories of immigration to Australia, 200203

Source: From data in DIMIA, Migration Program planning levels, Fact Sheet 20, 2003; A Rizvi, SOPEMI 2004: Australia, 2003.

Over recent times in Australia there has been greater government intervention to shape the content of the intake of immigrants so that it can better contribute to national development goals. This has seen greater emphasis on skills in migrant selection and in the development of business migration programs designed to attract entrepreneurs with substantial sums to invest in the destination country. Australia and Canada have micro‑managed the qualifications of their migrant intake since the 1970s with the introduction of points assessment schemes. In Australia, recent years have seen a substantial shift toward skills/business migration and away from family migration as Figure 14 demonstrates. The diagram clearly shows an increasing proportion of permanent settlers in Australia come from the Skill section of the program. In 200203, there were 66 050 people granted Skill visas. This is an increase of 45.1 per cent over 200102 when 45 520 were granted such visas. In 200102, 22.6 per cent were onshore applicants compared with 27.7 per cent in 200203.

Figure 14: Australia: migration program outcomes by stream

Source: DIMIA, Population flows: immigration aspects, various issues and DIMIA, Temporary Protection Visas, Fact Sheet 64, 2003.

It is interesting in the context of the increased focus of Australias immigration program on skill that there is very strong evidence of the labour market performance of settlers improving considerably in the last decade. This has been demonstrated using data from the Longitudinal Survey of Immigrants in Australia (LSIA) and that from the ABS Labour Force Survey.⁽⁵³⁾

Table 22 presents a comparison of the 1996 and 2001 census data and shows that whereas in 1996 the unemployment rate among immigrants arriving in Australia in the five years before the census was 22.1 per cent, it was only half that for the equivalent group in 2001. Moreover, the workforce participation rate was higher. These findings are especially interesting since there is increasing concern in both the United States and Canada that the labour market performance of recently arrived immigrants is declining.⁽⁵⁴⁾

Table 22: Australia: changes in labour force indicators by birthplace, 19962001

	Unemployment Rate	Participation Rate
Australia Born
1996	8.7	74.1
2001	7.1	74.6
% Change	-18.3	+0.7
Recent Migrants (arriving in the last 5 years)
1996	22.1	55.0
2001	11.0	60.0
% Change	-49.8	+9.1
Longstanding Migrants
1996	9.5	70.5
2001	7.4	70.5
% Change	-22.1	-

Source: ABS 1996 and 2001 Censuses, unpublished tabulations.

Regional migration schemes

The spatial distribution of Australias population is an issue of considerable national importance. Examinations of the nations changing population distribution however almost always focus on the role of internal migration/population movement within Australia as the demographic process which shapes those patterns. In fact, however, it is also strongly influenced by the extent to which immigrants settle in a different spatial pattern to that exhibited by the resident national population.

It is to be expected that each cohort of immigrants will settle differently to both the resident Australian-born population and earlier generations of immigrants since the composition of the inflows and the context into which they arrive change over time. The distribution of job opportunities within Australia is changing over time as are the skills and work experience of immigrants. Moreover, research indicates the migrants frequently settle where earlier generations of their fellow countrymen have settled. Migrant networks are crucial in shaping where immigrants settle. Hence, in each of the countries with significant immigration there is a strong pattern of spatial concentration of immigrants especially recent immigrants. This is especially true of the United States where a majority of the immigrant population live in few states (Texas, Florida, New York and California).

First of all, with respect to interstate population distribution, Table 23 shows that a spatial shift has occurred in Australias post-war population away from the south-eastern states to the northern and western parts of the country. In 1947 the states of New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania accounted for 78.4 per cent of the national population, but by 2001 they had 68.7 per cent of the total. On the other hand, Queensland increased its share from 14.6 per cent to 18.7 per cent and Western Australia from 6.6 per cent to 9.8 per cent.

Table 23: Australia: distribution of population between states and territories, 18812001

	1881	1901	1921	1947	1961	1976	1996	2001
New South Wales	33.3	35.9	38.6	39.4	37.3	35.3	33.9	33.8
Victoria	38.3	31.8	28.2	27.1	27.9	26.9	24.9	24.7
Queensland	9.5	13.2	13.9	14.6	14.4	15.2	18.2	18.7
South Australia	12.3	9.5	9.1	8.5	9.2	9.1	8.1	7.8
Western Australia	1.3	4.9	6.1	6.6	7.0	8.4	9.6	9.8
Tasmania	5.1	4.6	3.9	3.4	3.3	2.9	2.6	2.4
Northern Territory	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.7	1.0	1.0
Australian Capital Territory	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	1.5	1.7	1.6
Total percentage	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
Total number (million)	2.2	3.8	5.4	7.6	10.5	13.9	18.3	19.4

Source: DT Rowland, Population growth and distribution, 1982, p. 25; ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics
June Quarter 2000, and June Quarter 2003.

While much of the shift in interstate distribution has been due to interstate population movements, it is also due to a propensity for immigrants to settle in particular states. Table 24 indicates that immigrants have settled disproportionately in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia and this has been an influential factor in shaping the distribution of the national population. It will be noted however that there has been a striking increase in the proportion of newcomers settling in Queensland. This may indicate that after an extended period of getting less than a proportionate share of immigrants Queensland is becoming a significant attraction to immigrants.

Table 24: Australian states and territories: percentage distribution of the population by birthplace and
overseas-born arriving in the last five years, 1996 and 2001

State/Territory	Australia-Born (percent)		Overseas-Born (percent)		Persons Arriving in Last 5 Years (percent)
	1996	2001	1996	2001	1996	2001
NSW	33.22	32.65	35.54	35.93	41.21	40.81
Vic	23.96	24.04	26.61	26.31	24.40	23.60
Qld	19.96	20.44	14.25	15.01	15.11	17.33
SA	8.15	8.07	7.74	7.22	4.52	4.10
WA	8.91	9.11	12.18	12.06	11.61	11.28
TAS	2.98	2.83	1.19	1.11	0.78	0.69
NT	1.13	1.16	0.75	0.72	0.73	0.72
ACT	1.68	1.68	1.71	1.63	1.61	1.47
Other Territories	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01
Total	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00

Source: ABS 1996 and 2001 Censuses.

The relative contributions of net international migration as well as net interstate migration and national increase to population change in the states and territories are shown in Table 25. It will be noted that in New South Wales, the largest state, there was a net international migration gain of almost one quarter of a million which accounted for 60.8 per cent of the States population growth between 1996 and 2001. Moreover the State experienced a significant net loss due to interstate migration, a longstanding pattern.⁽⁵⁵⁾ In the past this has been the pattern in Victoria as well but a turnaround in the States economy saw it experience a small net interstate migration gain between 1996 and 2001. Conversely Queenslands net international migration gain was not as large as the net gain by interstate migration. However, over the 1996 and 2001 inter-censal period the contribution of net international migration has increased and that of net interstate migration has declined. Queensland is increasing its proportion of the national immigrant intake and increased its share of recent migrations to Australia from 5.1 to 17.3 per cent between 1996 and 2001. On the other hand the shares in the traditional immigration states declined slightly (Table 24). In South Australia and Tasmania net international migration gains were not large enough to counter-balance the net outflow from interstate migration. Western Australia has remained an important destination for migrants.

Table 25: Australian states and territories: natural increase, net overseas migration, net interstate migration
and total population growth, financial years 19962001

State	Natural Increase		Net Overseas Migration		Net Interstate Migration		Total Population Growth No.
	No.	% of Growth	No.	% of Growth	No.	% of Growth
NSW	244 414	60.9	243 869	60.8	-86 925	-21.7	401 358
Vic	166 298	53.6	141 572	45.6	2 332	0.8	310 202
Qld	149 510	41.0	88 129	24.2	126 659	34.8	364 298
SA	39 745	118.9	19 621	58.7	-25 950	-77.7	33 416
WA	84 107	47.6	79 144	44.8	13 361	7.6	176 612
Tas	14 184	385.1	1550	42.1	-19 417	-527.2	-3683
NT	16 662	87.4	4172	21.9	-1773	-9.3	19 061
ACT	17 510	199.7	-453	-5.2	-8287	-94.5	8770
Australia*	732 649	56.0	576 221	44.0	-	-	1 308 870

Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics June Quarter 2002.

* Includes other territories.

Turning to the extent to which immigrants settle in urban and rural areas, Table 26 shows how migrants and the Australian-born are distributed between sections of state. It will be noted that immigrants are under-represented in all but the major cities category. Moreover among recent arrivals 89 per cent have settled in major cities compared to 59.9 per cent of the Australian-born and 80.6 per cent of longer standing immigrants. The under-representation in all non-metropolitan categories is much greater among recent arrivals than among immigrants of longer standing especially in rural areas. There appears to be a pattern whereby after a period of longer residence in Australia the overseas-born move more to non-metropolitan areas like the Australian‑born population.⁽⁵⁶⁾

Table 26: Australia: persons by section of state by birthplace by year of arrival at 2001 Census

	Overseas Born
	Arrived Before		Arrived After
	1996		1996		Australian Born		Total
	No.	%	No.	%	No.	%	No.	%
Major Urban	2 778 580	80.6	584 872	89.0	8 163 240	59.9	11 526 692	65.0
Other Urban	417 236	12.1	51 543	7.8	3 443 950	25.2	3 912 729	22.1
Bounded Locality	43 479	1.3	3 806	0.6	410 248	3.0	457 533	2.6
Rural Balance	207 476	6.0	17 062	2.6	1 606 337	11.8	1 830 875	10.3
Migratory	1380	-	196	-	5706	0.1	7282	-
Total	3 448 151	100.0	657 479	100.0	13 629 481	100.0	17 735 111	100.0

Source: ABS 2001 Census, unpublished tabulations

There have been a number of attempts by governments to influence where in Australia migrants settle after they arrive in Australia.⁽⁵⁷⁾ In Europe, several countries are attempting to direct refugees to settle in particular areas.⁽⁵⁸⁾ The last few years have seen a more concerted effort by DIMIA to influence where immigrants settle than at any time since the intake of displaced persons in the immediate post-Second World War period. In May 1996 the annual meeting involving Commonwealth, State and Territory Ministers for Immigration and Multicultural Affairs established a working party on regional migration which could herald a new era in patterns of migrant settlement. The working party examined ways in which a higher proportion of migrants might settle in regional Australia. Accordingly, a number of initiatives were taken to attract immigrants to areas which are currently receiving small intakes under the State Specific Migration Mechanisms (SSMMs).

SSRMs initiatives enable employers, state/territory governments or relatives to sponsor prospective skilled migrants. Mechanisms include the:

        Regional Sponsored Migration Scheme (RSMS)

        State/Territory Nominated Independent (STNI) scheme

        Skilled Designated Area Sponsored Visa Categories

        Skill Matching Database (SMD)

        Skill Matching Visa (SMV)

        Regional Established Business in Australia (REBA), and

        Two-stage State/Territory Sponsored Business Owner, Investor and Senior Executive visa categories.

Rizvi reports that:

Over the last 18 months the Government has implemented a number of enhancements to the initiatives, designed to attract a higher number of skilled and business migrants to regional Australia. Further enhancements are currently under consideration.⁽⁵⁹⁾

Some of the key enhancements already implemented include:

        Temporary residence concessions for regional Australia, including changes to temporary residence to provide regional certifying bodies with a greater role in supporting sponsorships in regional Australia.

      Exceptions can be provided from the gazetted minimum skill and salary requirements for positions nominated under temporary business visas, which are located in regional and low population growth areas and have been certified by a Regional Certifying Body.

        Changes to the general skilled migration category. In order to encourage a greater proportion of students to consider studying and eventually settling in regional Australia, the following adjustments to the points-test, and eligibility criteria, were implemented:

      Additional points for overseas students who have recently completed their qualifications by studying and living nearby for a period of a least two years at the campus of an education institution in regional Australia, and

      The period of time students are required to attend a tertiary institution in Australia to be exempt from the work experience requirement increased from 12 months to two years.

Business Skills. Introduction of a two-stage process (i.e. a provisional visa and then the granting of permanent residence once a business is fully established) for the Business Skills categories with a much greater emphasis on state and territory government sponsorship and support at both stages (with immediate permanent residence only available for high calibre business migrants who have state/territory government support).

South Australia readily embraced the new regional immigration categories when they were introduced and in 199899, 1034 of the total of 2804 migrants entering Australia under this category came to the State. However, by 19992000 this was reduced to 702 out of 3309. Table 27 shows that while over the 19912003 period there was an increase in the number of Regional Sponsored migrants to Australia, South Australias share remained around 700 while its proportion fell from 26.9 per cent in 19992000 to 20.5 per cent in 200102. However the initiatives in 2002 and 2003 saw a significant change in regional migration as predicted by Rizvi.⁽⁶⁰⁾ The overall number of State Specific Migration Scheme settlers increased by 91.5 per cent to 7921. Moreover, the continuing initiatives are likely to see an increase in 20032004. Rizvi reports that in the first quarter of 20032004 the number of SSRM grants was 2400, twice the level for the previous year.⁽⁶¹⁾

Table 27: Distribution of migrants granted visas under state specific migration mechanisms,
199899 to 200203

Category	South Australia		Other States	Total
	No.	%
199899
RSMS	436		329	765
STNI	169		0	169
Regional-Linked	29		38	67
SAL*	396		1348	1744
SSBS**	4		55	59
REBA	0		0	0
Total	1034	58.4	1770	2804
19992000
RSMS	373		291	664
STNI	9		0	9
Regional-Linked	16		179	195
SAL*	297		2087	2384
SSBS**	4		40	44
REBA	3		10	13
Total	702	26.9	2607	3309
2000-01
RSMS	437		584	1021
STNI	36		49	85
Regional-Linked	67		935	1002
SAL*	184		1,391	1575
SSBS**	16		106	122
REBA	10		31	41
Total	750	24.2	3096	3846
200102
RSMS	384		708	1092
STNI	51		206	257
Regional-Linked	137		1460	1597
SAL*	94		880	974
SSBS**	25		151	176
REBA	12		28	40
Total	703	20.5	3433	4136
200203
RSMS	436		1,302	1738
STNI	353		441	794
Regional-Linked SDAS	455		4,011	4466
SAL	20		504	524
SSBS	57		284	341
REBA	3		75	78
Total	1324	16.7	6617	7941

Source: DIMIA, Population flows: immigration aspects, various issues; Ruddock, various
Media Releases 2002; B Birrell, Redistributing migrants: the Labor agenda, 2003; DIMIA unpublished data.

* Refers to applicants under this category who obtained bonus points because their sponsor lived in a designated area.

** Includes applicants processed under offshore subclass 129 (State/Territory Sponsored Business Owner), offshore subclass
130 (State/Territory Sponsored Senior Executive), onshore subclass 842 (State/Territory Sponsored Business Owner) and
onshore subclass 843 (State/Territory Sponsored Senior Executive).

Acronyms

RSMS Regional Skilled Migrants Scheme

STNI State/Territory Nominated Independent

SAL Skilled-Australian Linked

SSBS State/Territory Sponsored Business Skills

REBA Regional Established Business in Australia

Note: For Definitions of Current Programs See Appendix.

There seems little doubt that the state-specific and regional migration initiatives will result in increased numbers settling in Australia under this category in the next few years.⁽⁶²⁾ The question becomes in which regional areas will they settle? Table 27 shows that South Australias share of the SSRM immigrants in 200203 continued to decrease although the numbers of settlers under the scheme increased by 88.3 per cent. There can be little doubt that the major recipient of SSRM migrants in recent times has been Melbourne. Although Melbourne is not eligible for receiving migrants in all SSRM categories, it can receive those under the large regional linked Skilled-Designated Area Sponsor (SDAS), and to a lesser extent, the State Sponsored Skill category. Birrell has analysed the planned locations of a proportion of SSRM immigrants over the 200103 period and his results are shown in Table 28 and indicate that in the largest category (Regional Linked SDAS) Melbourne accounts for two-thirds of settlers.⁽⁶³⁾

Family members living in designated areas can sponsor relatives on a concessional basis. The migrants they sponsor do not have to pass the points test applied to independent (skilled) migrants. Instead they are required to possess the following minimum qualifications : vocational English, be aged less than 45, have an occupation listed on the Skills Occupational List and have their occupational qualifications approved by the relevant assessment authority.⁽⁶⁴⁾

Table 28: Permanent residents, 1 July 2001 to 30 June 2003 grouped by visa category and location in Australia

		Per cent by Migration Category
Location	Permanent Residents	RSMS and State/Territory Schemes	Regional Linked SDAS	Other Skill	Not Skill	Total
Sydney	52 421	8	5	38	38	37
NSW Remainder	3 969	5	2	2	4	3
Melbourne	35 011	21	67	21	26	25
Vic Remainder	1875	5	2	1	2	1
Brisbane	12 739	2	2	11	8	9
QLD Remainder	5 610	7	3	4	4	4
Adelaide	6 444	22	8	3	5	5
SA Remainder	374	3	0	0	0	0
Perth	18 063	9	3	18	9	13
WA Remainder	1181	6	2	1	1	1
Hobart	760	5	1	0	1	1
Tas Remainder	571	2	1	0	1	0
Darwin	643	1	1	0	1	0
NT Remainder	196	1	0	0	0	0
Canberra	1989	3	3	1	1	1
ACT Remainder	22	0	0	0	0	0
City total	128 071	70	90	93	88	90
Remainder total	13 797	30	10	7	12	10
		100	100	100	100	100
State total	141 868	1937	3617	65 025	71 289	141 868
Not stated other	9178	238	160	7300	1480	9178
Total in category	151 046	2175	3777	72 325	72 769	151 046

Source: B Birrell, Redistributing migrants: the Labor agenda, 2003.

Note: Those with private box addresses or where location was not fully described in each state were apportioned on pro rata basis within each state. Categories shown here include spouses and children migrating with the principal applicant.

Special state and regional migration schemes are currently at a key point in Australia. There is a strong commitment of several state governments and the Federal Government to increase the number of permanent settlement visas issued under these initiatives. Moreover, the Labor opposition has committed to developing measures to ensure that at least 45 per cent of Australias new settlers go to rural and regional areas.⁽⁶⁵⁾ This is based largely on a report by Withers and Powell.⁽⁶⁶⁾ It is also important to note that Table 29 shows that there is a trend in the United States toward an increasing dispersal of immigrants.

Table 29: United States: change in population of foreign born
living in selected states 1990 and 2000

	1990	2000
State	%	%
California	32.7	28.5
Florida	8.4	8.6
Illinois	4.8	4.9
New York	14.4	12.4
New Jersey	4.9	4.7
Texas	7.7	9.3
	72.9	68.4
Oregon	0.7	0.9
Arizona	1.4	2.1
Iowa	0.2	0.3
Arkansas	0.1	0.2
Georgia	0.9	1.9
North Carolina	0.6	1.4
Kentucky	0.2	0.3
Tennessee	0.3	0.5
Virginia	1.6	1.8
	6.0	9.4

Source: US Bureau of Census.

Whereas in the past, six of the fifty states (California, New York, Florida, Texas, New Jersey and Illinois) accounted for over 70 per cent of new arrivals, newer migrants are increasingly being attracted to Oregon, Arizona, Iowa, Arkansas, Georgia, North Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee and Virginia.⁽⁶⁷⁾

On the other hand, there have been those who have been sceptical of Australian regional migration schemes. These include Birrell who shows that most regional migrants thus far have settled in capital cities, especially Melbourne.⁽⁶⁸⁾

One issue, which is rarely raised in the large amount of discussion on regional or state-specific migration schemes, is non-permanent migration. It has been argued here that Australia has entered a new paradigm of international migration with the new large scale acceptance of temporary workers. It is argued here that this movement should be included in consideration of regional or state-specific migration schemes because:

        the temporary migration is highly selective of very skilled persons

        although the full economic impact of the new temporary migration is yet to be researched in detail it is likely that such migrants make a significant economic contribution, and

        a substantial proportion of the temporary residents eventually settle in Australia.⁽⁶⁹⁾

Moreover it is apparent that the temporary migration is even more selectively concentrated in east coast Australia than is permanent settlement. This means that regional areas and peripheral states are largely missing out on the advantages of this new type of movement. Table 30 for example compares arrivals in subclass 457 (Temporary Business Entry) visa over the 19972000 period.⁽⁷⁰⁾ It will be noted, for example, that while South Australia generally receives over 4 per cent of permanent settlers it receives only half that proportion of Temporary Business Migrants to Australia.

Recently DIMIA announced that for the first time the Regional Migration Scheme will include some initiatives to direct temporary entrants as well as permanent entrants to the states like South Australia.⁽⁷¹⁾ These include:

        temporary residence visas for doctors who agree to go to an area of need identified by a state health authority, and

        temporary residence concessions for regional Australia, which allow regional certifying bodies a greater role to support sponsorships.

Table 30: Temporary Business Entrants (subclass 457) and Permanent Arrivals in the
Skill Visa Categories* Compared

	199798		199899		19992000
	Temporary	Permanent	Temporary	Permanent	Temporary	Permanent
Total number	11 932	25 985	11 894	27 931	10 823	32 350
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Primary applicants	48.0	40.0	47.2	40.1	50.8	39.8
Secondary applicants	52.0	60.0	52.8	59.9	49.2	60.2
Intended residence
NSW	47.7	43.4	48.8	43.7	52.3	42.7
Victoria	21.0	17.5	25.3	17.5	25.5	19.6
Queensland	10.9	13.8	9.0	13.0	9.0	12.1
SA	2.5	4.4	2.1	4.5	2.5	3.8
WA	16.2	19.1	10.9	19.5	7.4	20.1
Tasmania	0.7	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.3
NT	0.3	0.6	2.0	0.6	1.1	0.5
ACT	0.7	0.9	1.7	0.9	1.7	0.9
Sex
Male	54.9	52.6	52.8	52.7	54.1	52.3
Female	45.1	47.4	47.2	47.3	45.9	47.7
Region of origin**
Oceania	0.2	2.4	0.5	2.9	1.0	3.3
UK and Ireland	26.1	22.5	26.8	19.6	28.3	18.5
Other Europe and USSR	15.3	6.2	14.6	7.1	14.2	5.9
Middle East and N. Africa	0.9	2.9	1.3	2.6	2.1	2.3
Southeast Asia	6.2	13.0	7.9	17.4	7.3	18.2
Northeast Asia	21.2	23.0	16.5	20.2	13.9	16.1
Southern Asia	4.4	10.8	6.6	8.9	10.2	15.0
Northern America	17.3	2.6	14.7	1.8	14.9	1.6
Other America	0.7	0.8	2.0	1.0	1.1	0.5
Africa	7.8	16.2	9.0	18.5	7.2	18.5

Source: Khoo, Voight-Graf and Hugo, Temporary skilled migration to Australia, 2003.

* Includes primary migrants and dependents. Skill visa categories include Independent,
Employer Nomination Scheme, Business skills and (from 1997/98) Skilled Australian-linked.

** Based on country of citizenship for temporary migrants: based on country of firth for
permanent migrants.

Using South Australia as an example, a national study of 956 back packers found 35 per cent had visited South Australia, but a survey in 2000 of 1774 Working Holiday Makers found that only 2 per cent worked in South Australia.⁽⁷²⁾ Another group of temporary residents in Australia which has attracted considerable attention is that of overseas students who have been found to make a considerable contribution to the economy. Indeed overseas students have been estimated to be the third largest earner of foreign exchange in Australia. South Australia has increased its share of overseas students to be a little below its share of the total population as Figure 15 indicates. There is a proposal that overseas students from regional universities who seek to gain permanent residence in regional areas will be given particular concessions. In addition it is planned to develop a regional 457 subclass visa category.

Figure 15: All overseas students in South Australia as a percentage of all overseas students in Australia, 19942003

Source: DETYA, Students: Selected Higher Education Statistics, various issues

It is certainly true that attempts to influence where immigrants settle in Australia thus far have had only very marginal influences on the distribution of immigrants in Australia. All migration theory and empirical experience point to recent migrants concentrating in areas where:

(a)    there are substantial communities of fellow country persons who were previous settlers who will act as anchors to assist them settle in Australia, and

(b)   there are abundant job opportunities.

Programs which seek to divert new immigrants to peripheral areas where there are few previous immigrant settlers and limited economic opportunity will always have difficulty. Nevertheless it would not be advisable to dismiss SSRM schemes out of hand. The current situation is that DIMIA seems now to be ready to reduce the entry requirements substantially for people who will settle in peripheral areas. Undoubtedly this will be attractive to the substantial numbers of potential immigrants who are unable to qualify for settlement under the national immigration regulations. As the suite of SSRM schemes increases and the concessions to SSRM entrants increase so that the gap between the criteria they need and those required for regular entrants widens, it would seem likely that the numbers entering under the scheme would increase. The effectiveness in terms of redistribution of the population and assisting the development of regional areas and peripheral states however, will depend upon:

(a) The definitions of regional and eligibility of the various states that are employed. If metropolitan Melbourne continues to be included in these definitions for the bulk of programs, it will continue to attract the bulk of the new immigrants. The question has to be asked as to whether that is an outcome which is in the spirit of the objectives of the SSRM program.

(b) The extent to which SSRM settlers are compelled to stay in their original location. This remains a key issue which seems to be adequately addressed by the intention in some key programs to offer new settlers a two stage visa: the first stage of temporary residence for up to three years and a second stage of permanent residence after three years of continuous residence in the designated location. It would be argued that after three years the location has gained a substantial economic benefit from the immigrant and if he/she is ever going to settle there they would have formed relationships, established networks, etc. within the three years which would facilitate this.

Hence, the eventual impact of the SSRM schemes is difficult to predict and cannot be based purely on past experience. Another issue relates to the fact that thus far, it is mainly the skill and family elements in the immigration program which have been the subject of the SSRM schemes. Is it possible to do more to include those considered in the regional/humanitarian part of the program as is the case in European nations? This could, for example, be built into the plans following the recent undertaking to take 5000 refugee settlers from Africa.

Emigration and the Australian diaspora

There is a tendency for Australia to be categorised as a purely immigration country but, in fact, it is also a country of significant . Table 31 shows that over recent years departures on a permanent or long-term basis have been very substantial. In 200102 permanent departures numbered 48 241 compared with an average of 30 539 over the previous 14 years. This represented a 17.4 per cent increase over 19992000 and a 61.6 per cent increase over 5 years earlier. In 200203 there was a further 4.6 per cent increase in outflow, which reached 50 463 persons.

Table 32 shows the numbers of permanent departures is at record levels. It also indicates that there has been a substantial increase in the ratio of permanent to permanent immigration and it has been comparatively high in recent years. Over the post-war period there has been a close relationship between immigration and trends with the latter tending to follow the former with a small time lag. This is because, as Table 31 indicates, former settlers have been a major part of over the years. Moreover, the return migration effect has been understated in the data since a significant number of the Australian-born are children born in Australia to overseas-born returnees.