Population change in electoral divisions, 2008 to 2009

19 August 2011 

Paul Nelson
Statistics and Mapping Section

Contents

Introduction
Main Features
Table 1: Total population
  Table 1a: Estimated resident population by electoral division, 2008 and 2009
  Table 1b: Electoral divisions ranked by total population growth rate, 2008 to 2009
Table 2: Population aged 0 to 4 years
  Table 2a: Estimated resident population aged 0 to 4 years by electoral division, 2008 and 2009
  Table 2b: Electoral divisions ranked by growth rate in 0 to 4 years age group, 2008 to 2009
Table 3: Population aged 5 to 14 years
  Table 3a: Estimated resident population aged 5 to 14 years by electoral division, 2008 and 2009
  Table 3b: Electoral divisions ranked by growth rate in 5 to 14 years age group, 2008 to 2009
Table 4: Population aged 15 to 64 years
  Table 4a: Estimated resident population aged 15 to 64 years by electoral division, 2008 and 2009
Table 4b: Electoral divisions ranked by growth rate in 15 to 64 years age group, 2008 to 2009
Table 5: Population aged 65 years and over
Table 5a: Estimated resident population aged 65 years and over by electoral division, 2008 and 2009
Table 5b: Electoral divisions ranked by growth rate in 65 years and over age group, 2008 to 2009

Introduction

The Parliamentary Library has obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) unpublished Estimated Resident Population (ERP) data by single year of age as at 30 June 2008 and 2009 for Commonwealth electoral divisions. This allows analysis of various aspects of population change for divisions over the period 2008 to 2009 on a consistent geographic basis. The 2009 ERP figures are preliminary and subject to revision while the 2008 ERP figures contain revisions to preliminary data previously supplied to the Parliamentary Library. ERP data for the period 2007 to 2011 will only be finalised after the 2011 Census of Population and Housing is processed and the new census population benchmarks are incorporated into ERP estimates.

ERP estimates are the official estimates of the Australian population and they link people to a place of usual residence within Australia. ERP data are considered to be superior estimates of the resident population compared with census figures because ERP includes adjustments for net census undercount [1]  and Australian residents temporarily living overseas. ERP figures have the advantage over census figures of being available on a quarterly or annual basis and are available as time series on a consistent basis.

The source ERP electoral division data by single year of age and sex, as supplied by the ABS, are available from the Electorate Atlas resource on the Parliamentary Library’s intranet (available only to Senators and Members). Data for the 2009 electoral divisions are available on an annual basis for the period 2001 to 2009. 

An analysis of 2008 and 2009 data for the total population, and for the age categories of 0 to 4 years,  5 to 14 years, 15 to 64 years, and 65 and over, are presented in the following tables. Since the source data are available by single year of age, it is possible to derive data for any age grouping or calculate dependency ratios.

Main Features

A brief description of the contents of each table is given below, together with a summary of some of the more interesting features of the data.

Table 1: Total population

Table 1a: Estimated resident population by electoral division, 2008 and 2009

Table 1b: Electoral divisions ranked by total population growth rate, 2008 to 2009

Table 1a shows the total ERP in 2008 and 2009, as well as the population change and the growth rate for all electoral divisions. The data are displayed in alphabetical order of electoral divisions. Table 1b shows the same data as in Table 1a, with the data ranked by the population growth rate.The division with the lowest total population in 2009 was Franklin (Tas., 97 546). The five divisions with the lowest total population are the five divisions in Tasmania. The next two divisions with the lowest populations are the two divisions in the Northern Territory. Section 24 of the Australian Constitution[2] guarantees that each of the original states is entitled to at least five members. Therefore, Tasmania has five electoral divisions even though it would only be entitled to three members under the representation entitlement formula.[3] This results in each Tasmanian division having a relatively small population. The calculation of representation entitlement that last occurred in February 2009 resulted in the Northern Territory having a quota of just over 1.5 which is rounded up to an entitlement of two seats. As a result, the two divisions in the Northern Territory have relatively small populations. The division with the highest population in 2009 was Lalor (Vic., 196 686), followed by Holt (Vic., 186 254) and Gorton (Vic., 185 814).  The Australian population grew by an average 2.1 per cent between 2008 and 2009, a slight increase on the 2.0 per cent growth rate of the previous year. The Australian population growth rate peaked around the June quarter 2009. At the time of publication, the latest Australian population figures for December 2010 show the annual population growth rate has declined to 1.5 per cent, however these later data are only available at the state level and are not available for electoral divisions.

At the electorate level, Lalor (Vic., 7.4 per cent) was the fastest growing electoral division in 2009, followed by Pearce (WA, 5.2 per cent) and Brand (WA, 4.8 per cent). The electoral division with the lowest growth rate was Farrer (NSW, 0.4 per cent), followed by Denison (Tas., 0.5 per cent) and Canberra (ACT, 0.6 per cent).

Table 2: Population aged 0 to 4 years

Table 2a: Estimated resident population aged 0 to 4 years by electoral division, 2008 and 2009 

Table 2b: Electoral divisions ranked by growth rate in 0 to 4 years age group, 2008 to 2009

Table 2a shows the ERP in the 0 to 4 years age group in 2008 and 2009, as well as this age group’s population change and the growth rate for all electoral divisions. The data are displayed in alphabetical order of electoral divisions. Table 2b shows the same data as in Table 2a, with the data ranked by the population growth rate.The Australian population aged 0 to 4 years increased by 3.2 per cent from 2008 to 2009, which was significantly higher than the 2.1 per cent growth rate of the total population. There were significant variations in the growth rate for individual electoral divisions with the highest growth rate occurring in Lalor (Vic., 10.8 per cent), followed by Blair (Qld, 8.5 per cent) and Brand (WA, 8.0 per cent). Five electoral divisions experienced a decline in the 0 to 4 years age group: the largest percentage decline occurred in Farrer (NSW, -1.1 per cent), followed by Throsby (NSW, -0.8 per cent) and Berowra (NSW, -0.7 per cent).

Table 2a shows the ERP in the 0 to 4 years age group in 2008 and 2009, as well as this age group’s population change and the growth rate for all electoral divisions. The data are displayed in alphabetical order of electoral divisions. Table 2b shows the same data as in Table 2a, with the data ranked by the population growth rate.The Australian population aged 0 to 4 years increased by 3.2 per cent from 2008 to 2009, which was significantly higher than the 2.1 per cent growth rate of the total population. There were significant variations in the growth rate for individual electoral divisions with the highest growth rate occurring in Lalor (Vic., 10.8 per cent), followed by Blair (Qld, 8.5 per cent) and Brand (WA, 8.0 per cent). Five electoral divisions experienced a decline in the 0 to 4 years age group: the largest percentage decline occurred in Farrer (NSW, -1.1 per cent), followed by Throsby (NSW, -0.8 per cent) and Berowra (NSW, -0.7 per cent).

Table 3: Population aged 5 to 14 years

Table 3a: Estimated resident population aged 5 to 14 years by electoral division, 2008 and 2009 

Table 3b: Electoral divisions ranked by growth rate in 5 to 14 years age group, 2008 to 2009   

       

Table 3a shows the ERP for those aged 5 to 14 years in 2008 and 2009, as well as this age group’s population change and the growth rate for all electoral divisions. The data are displayed in alphabetical order of electoral divisions. Table 3b shows the same data as in Table 3a, with the data ranked by the population growth rate.

The Australian population aged 5 to 14 years increased by just 0.4 per cent between 2008 and 2009, which was significantly lower than the 2.1 per cent growth rate of the total population. There were significant variations in the growth rate for individual electoral divisions with the highest growth rate occurring in Lalor (Vic., 6.3 per cent), followed by Pearce (WA, 3.6 per cent) and Brand (WA, 3.2 per cent). There were 65 electoral divisions that experienced a decline in the 5 to 14 years age group. The largest percentage decline occurred in Farrer (NSW, -2.2 per cent), followed by Aston (Vic., -1.8 per cent) and Page (NSW, -1.7 per cent).

Table 4: Population aged 15 to 64 years

Table 4a: Estimated resident population aged 15 to 64 years by electoral division, 2008 and 2009 

Table 4b: Electoral divisions ranked by growth rate in 15 to 64 years age group, 2008 to 2009   

Table 4a shows the ERP for those aged 15 to 64 years in 2008 and 2009 as well as this age group’s population change and the growth rate for all electoral divisions. The data are displayed in alphabetical order of electoral divisions. Table 4b shows the same data as in Table 4a, with the data ranked by the population growth rate.

The Australian population aged 15 to 64 years increased by 2.2 per cent between 2008 and 2009, which was very similar to the 2.1 per cent growth rate of the total population. There were significant variations in the growth rate for individual electoral divisions with the highest growth rate occurring in Lalor (Vic., 7.4 per cent), followed by Pearce (WA, 5.3 per cent) and Canning (WA, 5.1 per cent). No electoral divisions experienced a decline in the 15 to 64 years age group in 2009. The lowest growth rate occurred in Denison (Tas., 0.3 per cent), followed by Makin (SA, 0.3 per cent) and Canberra (ACT, 0.4 per cent).

Table 5: Population aged 65 years and over

Table 5a: Estimated resident population aged 65 years and over by electoral division, 2008 and 2009   

Table 5b: Electoral divisions ranked by growth rate in 65 years and over age group, 2008 to 2009

Table 5a shows the ERP for those aged 65 years and over in 2008 and 2009, as well as this age group’s population change and the growth rate for all electoral divisions. The data are displayed in alphabetical order of electoral divisions. Table 5b shows the same data as in Table 5a, with the data ranked by the population growth rate.The Australian population aged 65 years and over increased by 2.9 per cent from 2008 to 2009, significantly higher than the growth rate of the total population, but lower than the growth rate of the 0 to 4 years age group. At the electoral division level, the highest growth rate occurred in Solomon (NT, 6.8 per cent), followed by Dickson (Qld, 6.6 per cent) and Gorton (Vic., 6.4 per cent). There were only two electoral divisions that experienced a decline in the aged population over this period, Wills (Vic., -0.2 per cent) and Lilley (Qld, -0.2 per cent).   

[1].   Whenever a Census is undertaken it is inevitable that some people will be missed and some others will be counted more than once. Usually more people are missed than overcounted. This difference is called the net undercount. The ABS obtains estimates of net undercount using information collected in a post-enumeration survey conducted immediately following the Census.

[2].   http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/general/constitution/index.htm

[3]    A quota is ascertained by dividing the total population of the six states by twice the number of senators from the six states. The representational entitlement of each state and territory is then determined by dividing the population of the state or territory by the quota. The resultant figure, rounded to the nearest whole number, determines the number of Members to be elected.

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