Tasmanian redistribution, 2009

31 March 2009

Paul Nelson
Statistics and Mapping Section

Contents

Introduction    
Overview of the redistribution    
Voting patterns    
     
     

Introduction

On 13 February 2008 the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) commenced a redistribution of Commonwealth electoral boundaries in Tasmania and the redistribution was finalised on 16 February 2009 when the final report was gazetted.[1] This redistribution is one of several redistributions that are occurring over the term of the 42nd Parliament. A recent Research Paper published by the Parliamentary Library discusses the current round of redistributions.[2] 

This Background Note describes the main features of the Tasmanian redistribution. Four tables are included. The first three tables quantify the number and proportion of enrolled voters in each new electoral division classified by the current electoral divisions. The fourth table describes the possible electoral impact by converting the two-party preferred (2PP) vote from the 2007 election onto the new boundaries. 

The new division boundaries will come into existence at the next federal election and replace the current boundaries that were determined at the last redistribution of Tasmania in 2000.

Overview of the redistribution

Voter enrolment for each of the existing five divisions in Tasmania varied across a range of –2.27 per cent (Lyons) to 3.68 per cent (Franklin) of the average divisional enrolment at the commencement date of the redistribution. All divisions are well within the allowable quota tolerance of plus or minus 10 per cent.[3]

Projected enrolment figures for August 2012 for each of the existing five divisions in Tasmania vary across a range of –3.27 per cent (Denison) to 4.76 per cent (Franklin) of the average divisional enrolment at the projection date. Franklin is outside the target range specified in the Electoral Act (Section 66) of plus or minus 3.5 per cent and Denison is only marginally within range. In this context the redistribution could potentially meet the numerical requirements of the Electoral Act with minimal changes to the boundary of Franklin.[4]  

The redistribution has resulted in relatively minor overall changes—only 4.5 per cent of electors have moved divisions—but the changes have affected the boundaries of each division. In comparison, the recent 2008 redistribution in Western Australia resulted in 16.1 per cent of electors moving to a different division (although the Western Australia figure was boosted by the abolition of a division).

Table 1a shows the number of enrolled voters at 13 February 2008 (the date of commencement of the redistribution) cross-classified by current electoral divisions (labelled as 2000 boundaries) and the new electoral divisions (labelled as 2009 boundaries). The division of Lyons is most affected by the redistribution with 6343 or 9.2 per cent of current electors in Lyons moving to different divisions, while another 7688 electors will move to Lyons from other divisions (Braddon and Franklin). In Franklin, 5913 or 8.1 per cent of current electors will move to different divisions, while another 1427 will move to Franklin from Lyons.   

Franklin, which has projected enrolments growing at a higher rate than the state average, was the largest division by enrolment size prior to the redistribution. Following the redistribution, enrolments in Franklin have fallen by 6.1 per cent and Franklin now has the lowest number of enrolments.

Table 1b and Table 1c are based on the same number of enrolled voters as in Table 1a; however, figures are expressed as a percentage of voters. Tables 1b and 1c differ from each other in the way that the percentage figures are calculated and interpreted.

Table 1b shows the percentage of voters in each new division. Each row of this table shows the proportion of voters in each new division classified by the division in which they are currently enrolled. For example, the new division of Lyons will comprise 89.0 per cent of its voters from the current Lyons division, 5.9 per cent of its voters from the current division of Franklin and 5.1 per cent of its voters from the current division of Braddon. Each row of this table sums to 100 per cent.  

Table 1c shows the percentage of voters in each current division. Each column of this table shows the proportion of voters in each current division classified by the division in which they will vote at the next election. For example, in the current division of Braddon, 95.0 per cent of voters will remain in the Braddon division following the redistribution while the other 5.0 per cent of voters will move to Lyons. Each column of this table sums to 100 per cent.

Voting patterns

Table 2 compares the 2PP vote from the 2007 election with the estimated 2PP vote based on the new division boundaries.

The change in the notional 2PP vote for each division is relatively minor and there is no change to the notional party status of any divisions. The largest change in notional 2PP vote occurs in Braddon where the ALP increases its 2PP vote by 0.9 per cent from 51.4 per cent to 52.3 per cent.

Table 1a:  Number of enrolled voters at 13 February 2008 classified by old and new division

2009 Electoral Division

2000 Electoral Division

 

Bass

Braddon

Denison

Franklin

Lyons

Total

Bass

69562

     

1522

71084

Braddon  

67900

   

3394

71294

Denison    

69283

1802

 

71085

Franklin      

67123

1427

68550

Lyons

 

3577

 

4111

62502

70190

Total

69562

71477

69283

73036

68845

352203

Table 1b:  Proportion of enrolled voters in each new division classified by current division (per cent) a

2009 Electoral Division

2000 Electoral Division

 

Bass

Braddon

Denison

Franklin

Lyons

Total

Bass

97.9

     

2.1

100.0

Braddon  

95.2

   

4.8

100.0

Denison    

97.5

2.5

 

100.0

Franklin      

97.9

2.1

100.0

Lyons

 

5.1

 

5.9

89.0

100.0

a.  Enrolled voters as at 13 February 2008.

Table 1c:  Proportion of enrolled voters in each current division classified by new division (per cent) a

2009 Electoral Division

2000 Electoral Division

Bass

Braddon

Denison

Franklin

Lyons

Bass

100.0

       
Braddon  

95.0

   

2.2

Denison    

100.0

2.5

4.9

Franklin      

91.9

2.1

Lyons

 

5.0

 

5.6

90.8

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

a.  Enrolled voters as at 13 February 2008.

Table 2:  Tasmania electoral division summary, two-party preferred vote in 2007

Electoral Division

Current (2000) boundaries

 

New (2009) boundaries

   

Change

 

Party Status

Per cent

 

Per cent

   

Per cent

Party Status

ALP

LP/NP

 

ALP

LP/NP

Notional Party Status

 

ALP

LP/NP

Bass

ALP

51.0

49.0

 

51.0

49.0

ALP

 

0.0

0.0

No

Braddon

ALP

51.4

48.6

 

52.3

47.7

ALP

 

0.9

-0.9

No

Denison

ALP

65.6

34.4

 

65.3

34.7

ALP

 

-0.3

0.3

No

Franklin

ALP

54.5

45.5

 

54.0

46.0

ALP

 

-0.4

0.4

No

Lyons

ALP

58.8

41.2

 

58.3

41.7

ALP

 

-0.5

0.5

No



[1].    Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) augmented Electoral Commission for Tasmania, 2009 Redistribution of Tasmania into Electoral Divisions, AEC, Canberra, 2009, http://www.aec.gov.au/pdf/redistributions/2008/tas/final/2009-final-report-redistribution-tasmania.pdf, accessed on 27 March 2009.

[2].    S. Barber, ‘Electoral redistributions during the 42nd Parliament’, Research Paper, no. 20, 2007–08, 24 January 2008, http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/rp/2007-08/08rp20.pdf, accessed on 27 March 2009.

[3].    Redistribution Committee for Tasmania, The 2008 Proposed Redistribution of Tasmania into Electoral Divisions, Report of the Redistribution Committee, 22 August 2008, p. 7, http://www.aec.gov.au/pdf/redistributions/2008/tas/proposed_report/report.pdf, accessed on 27 March 2009.

[4].    ibid, p. 8.

 

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