Official Economic Forecasts-How Good are They?


Current Issues Brief 15 2000-01

Queensland Election 2001

Scott Bennett, Politics and Public Administration Group
Gerard Newman, Statistics Group
3 April 2001

Contents

Major Issues
Introduction
The Beattie Government-living on a knife edge
Queensland goes to the polls
The major party contest

Labor
The Coalition

Minor parties
The result

The major party vote
Labor
National
Liberal
Pauline Hanson's One Nation
The City Country Alliance
Greens versus Australian Democrats
Independents

Voting methods factors

Preference flows
'Just Vote 1'
Three-cornered contests

The verdict

Government stability
Ineffectiveness of the Opposition
Coalition disunity
Federal factors

A postscript to the Queensland election-the by-election in Ryan
Endnotes
Appendix 1: Voter support 1998-2001
Appendix 2: One Nation MLAs elected 1998
Appendix 3: Results
Table 1 Legislative Assembly: State Summary
Table 2a Legislative Assembly: First Preference Votes, District Summary - Number
Table 2b Legislative Assembly: First Preference Votes, District Summary - Per cent
Table 3 Legislative Assembly: District Detail
Table 4 Legislative Assembly: Two Candidate Preferred Vote
Table 5 Legislative Assembly: Electoral Pendulum
Table 6 Legislative Assembly By-elections 1998-2000
Table 7 Legislative Assembly Elections 1950-2001

 

Major Issues

Premier Beattie's first Queensland Government lived on a knife edge after narrowly winning office in 1998. It had won 44 of the 89 Assembly seats, with a first preference vote of only 38.9 per cent. The Government's position was eased slightly when it gained an additional seat in a December 1998 by-election. Because of the 'electoral rorts' affair, Beattie came under pressure to call an election early in 2001. Although he could have waited until September 2001, Beattie set the Queensland election date for 24 February 2001: 'It may not be in my best interests for there to be an early election but it is in the best interests of Queenslanders'. The election was conducted using electoral boundaries drawn up during 1998 and 1999.

Labor's biggest asset appeared to be Peter Beattie. Beattie had long enjoyed a high opinion poll rating among the six Premiers, and it showed no sign of waning prior to the election.

Neither the Nationals, led by former Premier Rob Borbidge, nor the Liberals, led by David Watson, had been able to make any long-term inroad into Labor's support. This position did not seem to alter during the election. Between 1998 and 2001, Borbidge's approval rating remained significantly below that of the Premier.

The Coalition parties were not free from tensions. The Nationals were split over the issue of dealing with One Nation for their preferences, and some appeared to be angling for Borbidge's position. Meanwhile, a number of Liberals were publicly less than impressed with the performance of their leader, David Watson.

A key factor seemed to be the re-emergence of One Nation as a genuine electoral force in the Western Australian election held a week earlier, where the party gained a Legislative Assembly vote of 9.6 per cent, together with three upper house seats. One Nation appeared likely to do at least as well in Queensland. Although it had only 39 nominations, this was enough for the major parties to be concerned about their possible impact on particular electorate results.

Labor's campaign was dominated by the Premier, with the general instruction to voters of 'Just vote 1'. His opponents were disunited and appeared to have trouble in making themselves heard, and, in fact, on a number of occasions Borbidge seemed to be conceding victory to Labor.

The result of the election was never in doubt on election night-the ABC commentary team had given the result to Labor within minutes of the start of the television coverage of the counting. Labor won 66 of the 89 seats, the Coalition won 15 (Nationals 12, Liberals 3), One Nation won 3 and 5 independents were successful, two of whom were MLAs who had won their seats under the One Nation banner in 1998.

Among the interesting figures:

  • Labor's 66 seats represented 74.2 per cent of the Legislative Assembly, equalling the party's best-ever result in 1935
  • the National Party vote was its lowest on record. Its 12 seats equalled its lowest total gained in 1944, and the earlier figure was in an Assembly of 62
  • the Liberal Party's vote was its lowest since the party first contested Queensland elections in 1950. Its three seats represent the lowest number it has ever won in the Assembly
  • the combined major party (ALP/LIB/NP) vote of 77.4 per cent was the second lowest on record in a Queensland election
  • the Greens and Australian Democrats improved their electorate-level vote, but in the electorates they both contested, no Democrat finished ahead of a Green rival
  • in 25 of 89 electorates (28.1 per cent) one of the final two candidates in the count did not come from a major party. For this reason the term 'two-party-preferred' is not used in this paper, and the term 'two-candidate-preferred' is used in its place
  • in fifteen electorates, the One Nation candidate was one of the final two left in the count when the two-candidate-preferred vote was ascertained, and
  • in the electorate of Nicklin the final two candidates in the two-candidate-preferred count were an independent and a One Nation candidate-no major party candidate remained at that stage. As far as can be ascertained, this is the only instance of this occurring since preferential elections have been given full counts in each electorate.

Among the relevant factors explaining the result, the strength and unity of Labor's leadership, the lacklustre Coalition effort in Opposition, the disunity in Coalition ranks and the intrusion of federal factors are highlighted.

The paper concludes with a brief summary of the subsequent Commonwealth by-election in Ryan.

Introduction

The 2001 Western Australian and Queensland elections produced two remarkable results that helped turn a time of apparent electoral calm into one of electoral volatility. In the West, the Court Coalition Government failed in its bid for a third term. Labor gained its largest haul of seats since the election of 1911, winning office in a fashion that few commentators had believed likely. (1) One week later, Queensland voters increased Labor's Legislative Assembly numbers to a level that equalled the party's best-ever result in that State, achieved in 1935. It was also remarkable that many voters maintained the clear decline in support for major parties in Australian elections that is increasingly being commented upon by many observers. These two elections, together with the by-election for the Commonwealth electorate of Ryan, have left parties and observers wondering what this might presage for the forthcoming Commonwealth election.

The Beattie Government-living on a knife edge

In June 1998 the Beattie Government had won office as a minority government only after securing the support of the independent MLA for Nicklin, Peter Wellington. The Independent MLA for Gladstone, Liz Cunningham, gave Labor support on their budget and confidence issues. Premier Beattie's first Government lived on a knife edge. It had won only 44 of the 89 Assembly seats, with its first preference vote of 38.9 per cent being over 11 per cent lower than the party had secured under the leadership of Wayne Goss in 1989. The Government's position was eased slightly in December 1998, when a by-election for the seat of Mulgrave held by Pauline Hanson's One Nation (hereafter referred to as 'One Nation'), was won for the Government by Warren Pitt. Premier Beattie now had just over half of the Legislative Assembly seats.

The parliamentary advantage thus gained was overshadowed by the various crises that battered the Government, including:

  • ongoing battles with the Australian Workers' Union over various union and Labor Party issues
  • controversy over Lang Park football stadium being chosen as the venue for a new 60 000 seat sports stadium
  • the Netbet affair where the Government awarded an online gambling licence to a company linked to ALP figures, including former deputy leader, Bill D'Arcy.
  • the resignation, trial and gaoling of Bill D'Arcy for child sex offences. This included public criticism of the size of D'Arcy's superannuation payout, and
  • the decision of accident-prone Treasurer, David Hamill, not to recontest his seat at the next election.

The Premier's major problem, however, seemed to be the emergence of the 'electoral rorts' affair. This became national news with the gaoling in August 2000 of Karen Ehrmann, a former State Labor candidate, for electoral fraud. (2) In the aftermath of this, a Queensland Criminal Justice Commission inquiry was established to investigate Labor Party electoral practices from 1993 to 1997, while the Commonwealth Parliament's Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters also began an inquiry.

As information emerged concerning doubtful practices that appeared to be long entrenched in the Labor Party, Premier Beattie moved to cauterise the problem. Changes were announced to the way in which Labor would henceforth hold party pre-selections, and over thirty party workers were forced to leave the party, pushed by Beattie's chosen 'hard-headed son-of-a-bitch', Terry Mackenroth. (3) Of greater possible significance electorally, were the forced resignations of three MLAs, including Deputy Premier, Jim Elder (Capalaba), Grant Musgrove (Springwood) and former State Secretary, Mike Kaiser (Woodridge). Beattie made a strong effort to suggest that rorting was not widespread, and that swift action would eradicate the problem from the party:

I think the electorate can distinguish between a competent executive government and a few bad eggs within a political party that has thousands of members.

The success of this tactic was felt to be uncertain, but the Bulletin , at least, was impressed, describing the Premier's handling of the affair as 'masterful' and the weeding-out of members as 'brutal'. (4)

Despite the effort to lessen the impact of this issue, the Premier seemed increasingly under threat. Wellington's withdrawal of support for the Government, and the Premier's closing down of Parliament, seemed symptomatic of a government whose days were numbered. The Leader of the Opposition, Rob Borbidge, accused the Premier of avoiding facing the public and called for an election to 'clear the air'. Eventually Borbidge got his way.

Queensland goes to the polls

Although he could have waited until as late as September 2001, Beattie set the Queensland election date for 17 February 2001. Interestingly, by the time that the date was settled, the opinion poll standing of the Premier and his party was higher than might have been expected if the electoral rorts affair was to be a factor in the election outcome. The Premier's reneging on an earlier promise of going full term seemed not likely to hurt his chances, though he suggested the early election was not necessarily the best outcome for his party: 'It may not be in my best interests for there to be an early election but it is in the best interests of Queenslanders'. (5)

The 2001 Queensland election was conducted using electoral boundaries drawn up as a consequence of a redistribution in 1998 and 1999. About three-quarters of all electorates had their boundaries altered: (6)

  • the number of seats remained at 89 (the 2001 election was the sixth since this number was established prior to the 1986 election)
  • two Brisbane seats (Chermside and Kedron) held by the ALP, were merged to form Stafford
  • two western seats (Western Downs and Crows Nest) held by the National Party, were merged to form Darling Downs
  • Gaven was created on the Gold Coast, and Glass House created on the Sunshine Coast
  • nine other electorate names were new: Algester (based on Archerfield), Kawana (Mooloolah), Mudgeeraba (Nerang), Nanango (Barambah), Pumicestone (Caboolture), Robina (Merrimac), Southern Downs (Warwick), Stretton (Sunnybank) and Yeerongpilly (Yeronga).

Among long-standing Members of the Parliament who were not re-contesting were Tony Elliott (Cunningham, NP, MLA since 1977), Len Stephan (Gympie, NP, 1979), Brian Littleproud (Western Downs, NP, 1983), and David Hamill (Ipswich, ALP, 1983, former Treasurer under Beattie). Russell Cooper, former Premier (September-December 1989) (NP, Crows Nest, 1983) was also departing. Since the 1998 election, former Labor Ministers, Bob Gibbs (Bundamba, 1977) and Bill D'Arcy (Woodridge, 1977) had also left the Parliament, the former to take up a government position in Los Angeles, the latter to face a court case and 14 years in gaol.

The major party contest

Labor

As has become the norm in modern State elections, the Premier dominated the Labor campaign to such an extent that it was difficult to tell who else was in the Government team. Premiers such as Wran (NSW), Bjelke-Petersen (Qld) and Kennett (Vic) have all done so, and Beattie was acknowledging both the way the media covers modern elections, as well as his apparent 'clean-skin' standing in regard to the 'electoral rorts' controversy. The Beattie website (Beattie2001.com) with its linking of only the Premier's name with the election, was a reminder of the Kennett-dominated site (jeff.com) during the 1999 Victorian State election. (7) In such a climate, there was little focus upon policies, even though the parties kept making announcements throughout the campaign. Professor John Wanna has noted that as the parties said very similar things about policy, the effect was 'to neutralise policy as a campaign issue'. (8) Beattie did spend a lot of time criticising the Commonwealth Government for its policies that, he claimed, were hurting his State. This also is part and parcel of State elections, for Premiers often believe an anti-Commonwealth stance does them no harm in the ballot box.

Since 1992, Queensland elections have used optional preferential voting (OPV). To cast a valid vote, only a first preference vote need be marked, though the voter may mark more than a single preference. The Labor Party decided that its how-to-vote instructions to voters would be simple: 'Just vote 1'. In other words, Labor voters should give the party their first preference, and no preferences should be given to any other candidate. In seeking to take advantage of OPV in this way, Labor sought to minimise the impact of the exchange of preferences that might favour Coalition candidates. It also hoped that many One Nation voters would stop after casting a first preference. The Coalition parties tried to make an issue of Labor's tactic, but it seemed to be no more controversial with voters than when the Wran Labor Government followed the same tactic in the New South Wales election of 1981.

The Coalition

The Opposition was not united in its efforts. The parties issued various policies, but seemed distracted by internal problems:

  • the issue of whether or not to put One Nation ahead of Labor on how-to-vote cards divided the Nationals. Despite the existence of much support for putting Labor last, early in the campaign Rob Borbidge claimed that no Nationals would put One Nation ahead of Labor. His position in the party was weakened, however, by his being forced to accept that many National candidates would ignore his words. As David Moore, the party's candidate in Mundingburra, put it, directing preferences to the ALP ahead of One Nation might work in Brisbane, but 'makes no sense in the north'. Despite at least 19 of the party's 50 candidates eventually favouring One Nation, State Director, Ken Crooke, denied that party members were at odds with their leader, but Borbidge himself saw this as a setback. (9)
  • Borbidge probably earned no friends within the Coalition for his acknowledgment on several occasions that the Labor Party would probably win the election. In talking of the Premier, he was even prepared to acknowledge: 'you have got to concede his [i.e. Beattie's] popularity'. (10)
  • these matters were presumably among the reasons for the emergence during the campaign of media stories suggesting that various Nationals were angling for Borbidge's position as party leader. (11)
  • the One Nation preferences issue also caused tensions between many Nationals and the Liberal Party. The Liberals had been hurt by their dalliance with One Nation in the 1998 Queensland election, and the party's leader, David Watson, was determined that the same would not occur on this occasion: 'we believe the cancer of extremism has to be resisted' (12)
  • the Liberal leadership was criticised for its less-than-dynamic campaigning and was said to be in some danger of becoming 'an ineffectual sideshow to public life in Queensland' (13)
  • by early 2000 the three-cornered contest, that running sore of Coalition relations, had re-appeared, with each party expressing its opposition to the other's intentions (14)
  • if these problems were not enough to seriously weaken the Coalition, the leaders at times sounded desperate in their attacks on the Labor Party. In one example that was redolent of the Bjelke-Petersen period, Borbidge promised that a Coalition government would 'go back to basics on core issues and core values'. To make his point, he claimed that Queensland schools needed to teach about the career of Winston Churchill rather than that of Ho Chi Minh. Borbidge also followed the federal Coalition's line that a vote for One Nation was a vote for Labor, a claim that may have been too subtle for voters, who were also hearing National politicians calling for an exchange of preferences with One Nation. Watson picked up the same theme, asserting that the no preference policy was Labor 'climbing into bed' with a 'racist rabble'. (15)

On balance, if there was support to be won or lost because of party campaigns, the advantages seemed to lie with the Labor Party.

Minor parties

As is usual, the focus of the media was largely upon the three major parties. In such a setting, it was therefore difficult for the minor parties, including the Greens and Australian Democrats, to gain a hearing. Only in the final week of the campaign did Pauline Hanson, fresh from One Nation's upper house success in Western Australia, manage to break through the domination of the media enjoyed by Labor, National and Liberal Parties. After the election, the leader of the City Country Alliance (CCA), Bill Feldman, acknowledged the difficulties that are usually experienced by the minor players in an election:

We were steamrolled by the Beattie smile at the start of the campaign and by Pauline Hanson's legs at the end of it. The media ignored us the whole way through the campaign and it's hard to get support when you can't get your message out. (16)

Despite the late entry of One Nation into the contest, its Western Australian performance persuaded some commentators that One Nation voters, past and present, would be crucial to the election outcome. (17)

The result

The result of the 2001 Queensland election was never in doubt on election night-the ABC's Antony Green had given the result to Labor within minutes of the start of the television coverage of the counting. Labor won comfortably (for full figures, see Appendix 3).

Party

Formal vote

%

Seats won

Seats contested

Australian Labor Party

1 007 231

48.9(+10.0)

66(+22)

89

Liberal Party

294 922

14.3(-1.8)

3(-6)

45

National Party

291 330

14.2(-1.0)

12(-11)

50

Pauline Hanson's One Nation

178 950

8.7(-14.0)

3(-8)

39

The Greens

51 623

2.5(+0.1)

-

31

City Country Alliance

49 258

2.4(+2.4)

-

25

Australian Democrats

7 027

0.3(-1.3)

-

6

Other candidates

178 169

8.6(+5.3)

5(+3)

-

Total formal votes

2 058 510

Informal votes

47 840

2.3

Total enrolment

2 276 044

Source: Electoral Commission of Queensland

For the first time a substantial number of women was elected to the Legislative Assembly. From having the second lowest Assembly percentage of women in any State Parliament (18.3 per cent), Queensland now has the highest: 37.1 per cent. In the Queensland ALP Caucus 40.9 per cent are women.

The major party vote

In the last two Queensland elections (1998 and 2001) the combined major party (ALP/LIB/NP) vote has averaged 73.8 per cent. By contrast, the eight elections between 1974 and 1995 averaged 95.2 per cent. Thus continues the decline in the major party vote that has been noted elsewhere. (18) In 25 of 89 electorates (28.1 per cent), one of the final two candidates in the count did not come from a major party. For this reason, the term 'two-party-preferred' is not used in this paper, with the term 'two-candidate-preferred' being used in its place. Perhaps the most startling detail of all, however, came in the electorate of Nicklin. In this contest, the final two candidates in the two-candidate-preferred count were an independent and a One Nation candidate-no major party candidate remained. This is possibly the only instance of this occurring in a Commonwealth, State or Territory election in the past 50 years.

Labor

Labor's primary vote of 48.9 per cent was 10 percentage points higher than its 1998 return. The 18 Labor victories since the election of 1912 have produced an average vote of 48.8 per cent. The Government's 66 seats represent 74.2 per cent of the Legislative Assembly, equalling the party's best-ever result, achieved in a house of 62 after the election of 1935. Labor contested all 89 electorates. According to the ABC's Antony Green, Labor's vote rose over 11 per cent in South East of the State, with eight of nine Gold Coast electorates garnered. Its vote climbed 9.5 per cent in regional cities and over six per cent in rural areas. The party won unlikely victories in electorates such as Indooroopilly in Brisbane and Burdekin in the North. (19)

A possible measure of the electoral rorts issue was Labor's vote in the three electorates where the sitting members had felt it necessary to resign after the Shepherdson Inquiry had begun its work. In Springwood, Labor's 1998 vote of 38.2 per cent jumped to 45.6 per cent. In Woodridge, Labor's 1998 vote of 51.7 per cent had risen in the 2000 by-election to 56.5 per cent, and it climbed further in 2001 to 57.3 per cent. Only in Capalaba, was Labor's 1998 vote (54.9%) not sustained. Analysis of the returns, however, suggest that Labor's 43.6 per cent in that electorate was due largely to the campaigns of two strong independents, whose combined vote totalled more than 29 per cent. In two Townsville electorates, where the rorts affair come to prominence, the Labor vote rose by 7.4 per cent in Townsville, and 4.2 per cent in Mundingburra .

National

The National Party won 14.2 per cent of the Queensland vote, though it contested only 45 electorates. In the previous election it contested one fewer electorate and won one per cent more of the first preference vote. The 14.2 per cent is the party's lowest State-wide vote on record. Its 12 seats equalled its lowest total gained in 1944, and the earlier figure was in an Assembly of 62. It now holds just 13.5 per cent of the Assembly seats. The fact that the party finished behind a One Nation candidate on first preferences in 11 electorates is another measure of the decline in the fortunes of a party that dominated non-Labor politics for so long. Among Nationals to be defeated were Allan Grice (Broadwater), Rob Mitchell (Charters Towers) and Doug Slack (Burnett).

Liberal

The Liberal Party's effort of 14.3 per cent was 1.8 per cent lower than in 1998-when it also contested three fewer electorates. In fact, the vote was the party's lowest since it first contested Queensland elections in 1950. Its previous lowest return had been 14.9 percent in 1983. Its three seats represent its lowest number in the Assembly (it had won 9 in each of 1989, 1992 and 1998), and opened the question of whether it ought to receive the type of resource allocation in Parliament normally granted the largest parties. The Liberals lost Santo Santoro (Clayfield), John Goss (Aspley) and Denver Beanland (Indooroopilly), and for some days it was thought that its leader, David Watson, and former leader, Joan Sheldon, had been defeated. Each eventually managed to retain their seat.

Pauline Hanson's One Nation

For a long time, the severe implosion in the One Nation Party had suggested that it would have difficulty in restoring the electoral credibility that it had earned in 1998. The figures in Appendix 1 indicate that for much of the period 1999-2000 many voters were unprepared to express their support for the party. Before the end of the first year of the Parliament, six of the eleven MLAs had left the party, and the other five resigned in late 1999. Some of these chose to sit as members of the newly-formed City Country Alliance, some declared their independence from parties, and one left the Parliament. The members cited the absence of democratic and accountable structures within the party as the main reason for their defection, though Wanna has also pointed to clashes of personality and claims of dishonesty within the party (for a summary of the fate of the eleven One Nation MLAs elected in 1998, see Appendix 2). (20) In addition to these defections, the party was found to have been fraudulently registered at the time of the 1998 election. After a struggle to raise funds, more than $500 000 of public funding given to One Nation by the Electoral Commission of Queensland was repaid.

A key factor in the re-emergence of One Nation as a genuine electoral force seems to have been the Western Australian election held a week earlier. The party contested this State on the back of its 10.4 per cent vote in the 1998 Senate election. Spurred on by a flurry of publicity for Pauline Hanson when she campaigned around that State, the party's Legislative Assembly vote was 9.6 per cent. In the Legislative Council, the party did even better, gaining 9.9 per cent and three upper house seats, two more than was managed by the National Party (2.9 per cent of the vote).

In Queensland, the party had been deregistered for some time. Its late re-registration, shortly before the deadline for the nomination of candidates, meant that only 39 nominations were lodged, but it was a large enough number for the major parties to be concerned about their possible impact on particular electorate results. It certainly produced much discussion about deals for the party's preferences. Hanson stated that the party would direct preferences on a seat-by-seat basis, though it was also likely to direct preferences against sitting members, as it had done in Western Australia.

With only 39 candidates, 40 fewer than in 1998, it was unrealistic to imagine that One Nation's remarkable 22.7 per cent of the State-wide vote would be repeated. However, despite the small number of candidates, and the party' late entry into the campaign, it managed to average 20.3 per cent of first preferences in those 39 electorates, and secured the election of three candidates in Gympie, Lockyer and Tablelands. One indication of the breadth of support for One Nation can be seen in the fact that in fifteen electorates, the One Nation candidate was one of the final two left in the count when the two-candidate-preferred figure was established.

Overall, though, its vote per seat did decline. In 1998, its first preference vote averaged 25.4 per cent in the seats it contested, and it topped 40 per cent in three seats (Barambah, Maryborough, Tablelands). In 2001, however, it could manage just three electorates with a vote in excess of 30 per cent. (21) Newman has drawn attention to the fact that One Nation's 1998 vote was higher outside of Brisbane than in the capital, and this was also the case in 2001. (22)

One Nation first preferences were higher than Labor first preferences in five electorates, were higher than Liberal first preferences in seven electorates, and higher than National Party first preferences in eleven electorates. With the National and Liberal votes falling in 2001, presumably Labor was the major beneficiary of the fourteen per cent drop in the One Nation State-wide figure.

The City Country Alliance

Five of the former One Nation party MPs contested the election as members of the CCA, along with 20 other candidates. Bill Feldman offered to campaign 'alongside' One Nation candidates who had similar goals to CCA, but Hanson rejected the offer. (23) None of the CCA candidates was successful, including its five sitting members. Although the CCA averaged only 8.5 per cent in the electorates it contested, Jeff Knuth managed 20.9 per cent in Burdekin, David Dalgleish 18.5 per cent in Hervey Bay and Feldman 15.5 per cent in Pumicestone. Six other candidates received at least 10 per cent of first preferences.

How much combined support was there for One Nation and the CCA? Because they did not contest all electorates, this is impossible to answer, but even with this limitation, we can at least point to their aggregate vote being 11.1 per cent State-wide. Some electorates revealed a great deal of support: in the 11 electorates contested by both, the average first preference vote was 31.9 per cent. In Lockyer (46.3 per cent) and in Burdekin (40.6 per cent) the One Nation/CCA vote topped 40 per cent. Even in Ipswich (22.2 per cent) and Cunningham (22.9 per cent) over one-fifth of voters cast ballots for one or the other.

Greens versus Australian Democrats

One contest which some people claimed had national overtones, was that between the Greens and the Australian Democrats, despite the fact that both had been almost invisible during the campaign. The Greens ran 31 candidates, a drop of 15 on the 1998 figure, while Democrat candidates almost disappeared, with just six candidates compared with 42 in the previous election.

Both parties improved their electorate-level vote, but overall the Greens overshadowed the Australian Democrats. The Green average first preference vote was seven per cent (4.4 per cent in 1998), while the Democrats averaged 4.8 per cent (3.4 per cent in 1998). In the Brisbane electorates of Mount Coot-tha (11.9 per cent) and Indooroopilly (10.1 per cent) the Green vote topped 10 per cent. In the six electorates contested by both, the Greens comfortably won the head-to-head contest, leading the Australian Democrats in all, with 8.3 per cent to 4.8 per cent of first preferences.

These two parties were very much on the fringe of the election action, and their votes were tiny by comparison with those already discussed, but it has not stopped partisans from drawing federal implications from them. Just how much basis the claims may have is a matter of interpretation. Senator Bob Brown (Tas, TG), for instance, spoke of the Green vote being a good springboard for the Greens winning a Senate seat in Queensland. (24) Assuming that this State result is relevant to the forthcoming Commonwealth contest, it can be noted that in 1993 Dee Margetts won a Western Australian Senate position with a Green first preference vote of 5.5 per cent, while Brown himself entered the Senate on a Tasmanian Green vote of 8.7 per cent. A 2001 figure in this range might leave the party in a tight fight with the Australian Democrats and One Nation for the final Senate seat later in the year.

For their part the Australian Democrats talked down the Green claim. National Campaign Director, Jim Downey, noted that the party's State election results were invariably higher than in Commonwealth elections, while Meg Lees noted that the Australian Democrats had never had 'much of a profile in Queensland state politics'. (25) The Democrats won seats in each of the last two Queensland Senate contests with first preference votes of 13.2 per cent (1996) and 7.8 per cent (1998).

Independents

Six MLAs stood as independents. Apart from Liz Cunningham (Gladstone) and Peter Wellington (Nicklin), former One Nation parliamentarians, John Kingston (Maryborough), Dorothy (Dolly) Pratt (Barambah, now Nanango), Shaun Nelson (Tablelands) and Ken Turner (Thuringowa) had left their party and had sat as independents (see Appendix 2). There were also a number of prominent local independent candidates, including Toni Bowler, Murray Elliott (both Capalaba), Sno Bonneau (Barron River) and Ray Hopper (Darling Downs).

In the event, Cunningham, Wellington, Kingston and Pratt (the latter supported by Joh Bjelke-Petersen) were all re-elected. Only Kingston (33.5 per cent) had a struggle, with the other three all well ahead on first preferences. Cunningham won her third election, this time with an absolute majority, her vote having risen on the two occasions she has re-contested the electorate. These four were joined by local dairy farmer, Ray Hopper, in Darling Downs, an electorate that the National Party had expected to win.

Voting methods factors

Preference flows

In Western Australia, One Nation's policy of targeting sitting members hurt the Liberal Party more than Labor, though not by a large margin. Newman's figures suggest that Labor may have done marginally better (51.8 per cent) than the Coalition (48.2 per cent) from One Nation preferences. (26) This suggests that One Nation might not be able to control its preferences as tightly as the more experienced parties. The Electoral Commission of Queensland is now not releasing full count figures until at least June 2001, so this paper is unable to make any assessment of either One Nation or Green preference flows.

'Just Vote 1'

For a similar reason, it is not possible at this stage to make any statistical analysis of the Labor Party's 'Just vote 1' tactic, though John Wanna has called it 'the most impressive and masterful tactic of the campaign', and 'a major turning point'! (27)

Three-cornered contests

Three-cornered contests produce a lot of heat in Coalition relations, particularly when the Liberal Party is seen to be intruding in an electorate that the National Party regards as one of its natural constituencies. The claim that such contests essentially do more harm than good is hard to sustain, for it is possible to find many electorates where the tactic has probably increased the total vote for the Coalition parties-which is the original reason for the emergence of this tactic many years ago. Worthington has noted, for example, that in the 1996 Western Australian election, the tactic certainly aided the parties, and helped the Liberals win the seat of Ningaloo from the ALP. (28) At the same time, one reason why Labor introduced OPV in Queensland was to lessen the impact of three-cornered contests. Coalition opponents therefore argue that three-cornered contests are pointless if OPV is the voting method. It is also said that they can cause more trouble than they are worth, on the grounds that they are often interpreted in the media as an indication of Coalition tensions.

During 2000 the Liberal and National Parties had argued over this issue, especially in relation to the electorates of Albert, Cunningham and Springwood, with neither prepared to back down. In the event, three-cornered contests occurred in six electorates, including these three. Because the two parties performed so weakly across the State, however, it is not possible to argue that the tactic had any deleterious impact on the overall Coalition effort. In Cunningham, the one electorate where the Coalition had a realistic chance of winning, the Nationals actually took the electorate, so that the three-cornered tactic certainly did not prevent this victory. (29)

Three-cornered contests

Electorate

Liberal vote

National vote

Combined vote

Winning candidate

(1 st preferences)

Albert

13.6

12.0

25.6

ALP 50.7

Cunningham

14.8

24.9

39.7

Coalition (NP)

Glass House

10.7

18.0

28.7

ALP 40.8

Nicklin

9.2

7.8

17.0

Ind 46.3

Springwood

14.6

18.8

33.4

ALP 45.6

Thuringowa

10.1

18.7

28.8

ALP 41.0

Source: Electoral Commission of Queensland.

The verdict

Government stability

Within six months of narrowly winning office in 1998, the Premier had the satisfaction of seeing his Government's support climb approximately ten percentage points in opinion polling conducted by Newspoll. Apart from a brief period in late 2000 when the party seemed to lose support, though not its lead over the Coalition parties, Labor maintained remarkably even support across the State (see Appendix 1). To a large extent, the 2001 Labor victory may have been won by early 1999. Certainly Newspoll's Sol Lebovic believed that the electorate had made up its mind well before polling day. (30) In summary, it was Labor's very healthy and continuing support that was probably the key factor to explaining the electoral outcome.

This was probably aided by the electorate's perception of Premier Beattie, who appeared to be Labor's biggest asset. Before the announcement of the premature election, the Premier had attempted to suggest that there had been a sea-change in the party. Beattie did his best to convince voters that the 'rorters' had been expelled, and that electoral rorting was a thing of the past. In January he travelled to Barcaldine to stand under the Tree of Knowledge, a place of importance to Labor's Queensland history, where he announced a series of reforms to Labor's internal processes that he labelled 'a rebirth, a renewal, a fresh start for the Labor Party'. (31) Beattie also embarked on a two week 'listening tour', where he claimed to have met 'real people'. He explained that this was the only way he could break a commitment to Peter Wellington that he would not go to an election before May 2001. (32) Despite the Australian labelling such a claim as 'rubbish', suggesting that it was more to do with seeking to protect his team from the dangers associated with the recall of Parliament, it seemed not to hurt his party's chances. It may well have been seen as the Premier trying to do the correct thing by his party and the public. (33)

Labor's electoral position seems therefore to have been given strength by a perception of Beattie as likely to give stability and safety for Queensland, unlike the divided Coalition (see below). The Courier-Mail could see weaknesses in the Government's performance, but the newspaper may well have summed up the prevailing mood in its last words on the Premier:

For all his Government's faults, he combines an inclusive leadership style with generally sound economic policies that ought to see the state right over the next three years.

The Courier-Mail believed, therefore, that Labor had earned voter support. (34) The Townsville Bulletin expressed a similar view, though it noted that this was as much by default as through any clear strengths that Labor possessed. (35) Quite remarkably, Beattie even entered the election with the ninety-year old Joh Bjelke-Petersen praising his efforts. (36)

The issue of government stability was possibly given emphasis by the uncertainty caused by the late entry of One Nation into the campaign. A number of observers, including Antony Green, claimed that as voters were leaving Labor for independent candidates, 'the most likely result is a hung Parliament'. (37) Even such experienced commentators as John Wanna (Griffith University) and Paul Reynolds (University of Queensland) believed the result would be close. Wanna spoke of a possible five seat margin to the ALP, while Reynolds surmised that Labor's seeming comfortable margin prior to One Nation's re-emergence was now likely to have disappeared, though he still predicted a narrow Labor win. (38) Peter Botsman of the University of Queensland predicted a Coalition victory. (39) In such an atmosphere, the leadership issue and the question of governmental stability might have helped persuade doubtful voters. Both Beattie and Borbidge warned of the dangers of minority government and the need for stability-if voters were concerned about this, presumably Beattie gave the better chance of delivering it.

Ineffectiveness of the Opposition

The continued strong voter support for Labor meant that neither the Nationals nor the Liberals was able to make any obvious inroad into Labor's support. A number of newspapers spoke of the challenge this gave the parties, especially as their leadership team was seen as having been decidedly 'lacklustre' in its performance since the 1998 election. The Coalition was also criticised for its policy inertia. The Townsville Bulletin , for instance, took it to task for 'more than two years of sitting on its hands'. (40) Even when Labor's popularity seemed to waver in late 2000, the Newspoll findings (Appendix 1) suggested that the apparent shifting from the Government that occurred in late 2000, may have been voters by-passing the Coalition as they looked for alternatives to the major parties.

As a measure of the Opposition's ineffectual performance, Borbidge's approval rating remained significantly lower than that of the Premier throughout the period between the two elections. In a poll published three days before polling day, the advantage was shown starkly, when Newspoll suggested a 'satisfaction with leaders' gap of 40 percentage points in Brisbane (69:29 per cent). Even outside of the capital, among voters not normally friendly towards Labor, there was a gap of 34 percentage points (54:20 per cent). (41) Anecdotal evidence suggested voter disenchantment with Borbidge's negativity since losing the Premiership. At the announcement of the election date, he seemed to suggest that such criticism had hit home, when he promised voters:

The whinging, whining Opposition you get in the adversarial climate of the parliament has gone and we are now the alternative government. (42)

By then it was probably far too late for him to reach voters.

Coalition disunity

The ineffectiveness of the Opposition was probably emphasised by the obvious tensions that existed within and between the Coalition parties. Apart from Borbidge's frustration over One Nation preferences, there was also some doubt about Borbidge's keenness for the leadership of his party. He had even flown a flag at one stage that he was thinking of contesting the Commonwealth electorate of Moncrieff, where the Liberals' Kathy Sullivan was rumoured to be retiring at the next Commonwealth election. The Courier-Mail expressed its amazement that, in effect, Borbidge 'saw fit to remind voters how good the Beattie Government's chances of another term are'. (43) Nothing came of this, but it did not suggest a leader who was totally focused on the State election.

A number of Liberals were publicly less than impressed with the performance of their own leader, David Watson. Public expressions of disappointment with his leadership had been expressed during 2000 by MLAs Bruce Davidson (Noosa) and Santo Santoro (Clayfield), and in June 2000 Santoro stood down from the frontbench in protest at his leader's labelling of him as 'an ego-driven prima donna'. Elsewhere, Watson criticised 'certain colleagues...[who] lacked political credibility and acumen', and he antagonised federal colleagues by his refusal to defend Commonwealth Government petrol excise policy. (44) Eventually, dissident Liberal voices were sufficiently loud for former Northern Territory Chief Minister and Queensland Liberal Party President, Paul Everingham, to call for federal intervention to 'clean up' the Queensland division. (45)

As long ago as 1977, Professor Don Aitkin made the claim that, 'There can be no doubt that the electorate prizes unity in its parties ... and that it is alert to any signs of party or cabinet dis unity'. (46) Academic research and the experience of political practitioners would still agree with Aitkin's words. The central message of the figures in Appendix 1 is that the Beattie Government remained ahead of the Coalition partners for the entire time between the 1998 and 2001 elections. If the Premier's personal popularity was a factor, so, we might suppose, was the generally difficult relationship between the National and Liberal Parties and the intra-party bickering. As the Courier-Mail lamented in mid-2000, while the parties argued, 'the main business of government goes on without much effective contribution from them'. (47) The position had not altered by polling day 2001.

Federal factors

Unpopular Commonwealth governments can make life very difficult for State parties of the same political colour. It is impossible to establish with any precision just how much this might influence voting behaviour, but it is commonly accepted that often this has to be considered as a possible factor in accounting for a State election result. (48)

In both the Western Australian and Queensland elections in 2001, claims were made that federal factors were of great importance. In the West, for instance, former Liberal Deputy leader, Colin Barnett, blamed the Commonwealth Government for the defeat of the Court Government, singling out Commonwealth Minister for Forestry and Conservation, Wilson Tuckey, himself a Western Australian, for particular criticism. (49) Overall, however, it is clear, that there were a number of local factors that seem to have played a greater role than the popularity or otherwise of the Howard Government. (50)

The argument is easier to sustain in the case of Queensland, where a number of Coalition politicians certainly believed that federal factors were important. These included the Liberal Party's State Director, Graeme Jaeschke, who stated that there was no denying that federal issues helped the Labor victory, while National Senator, Ron Boswell, believed federal issues were 'at play'. Doug Slack, MLA of 14 years standing, stated 'There's no doubt if there had been a Labor government I would still be member for Burnett'. (51)

Three aspects, at least, may have been important in giving some substance to these views:

  • The election occurred at a time when the media was running many stories about the fall in voter support for the Howard Government. It was therefore clearly to the Premier's advantage to confuse federal and State matters, and some Queenslanders may have been influenced by the Premier's criticism of what he described as the unpopular policies of the Howard Government. In particular, Beattie emphasised how significant the constant increases in the price of petrol was for Queenslanders. To keep this issue in the public eye, he even nominated 10 February as a 'day of protest' against petrol prices, and he asked voters to send the Howard Government a message on the issue by voting for Labor. (52) The fact that only two weeks before the election the latest fuel excise rise occurred, therefore played into Beattie's hands. Apart from petrol prices, Senator Boswell nominated national competition policy, and the Business Activity Statement involved in GST reporting, as important for Queensland voters. (53) The victory in Darling Downs of the independent, Ray Hopper, was said to have been caused by opposition to dairy deregulation, something that was believed to have been a factor in a number of seats in the State. (54)
  • The figures in Appendix 1 indicate a sharp fall in Liberal support shortly before the election. What might have caused this sudden drop? Although the local Liberal Party earned criticism for its lack of vigour, this had been a constant media refrain virtually since the 1998 election. Whether or not such criticism had any impact on voters is difficult to establish, but it seems unlikely that it would, of itself, have brought about such a sudden fall. On the other hand, it is plausible that there may have been something of a 'by-election factor' involved in voting in the Queensland State election-voters could have hit out against Commonwealth policies, despite this being a State election. Was this akin to the defeat of the Tonkin Government in Western Australia in 1974, or the unexpected near-defeat of the Dunstan Government in South Australia in 1975, when unpopular Whitlam Government policies seem to have affected the final vote in these two State elections? (55)
  • The entry of Pauline Hanson into the campaign seemed guaranteed to keep federal issues prominent in voters' minds. Three days prior to polling day, Ms Hanson probably ensured that would be the case when she launched her party's policies in the Sunshine Coast electorate of Caloundra. Her speech was basically a criticism of the Commonwealth Government: its leader, its Treasurer, the sale of Telstra, the failure to send boat people back from whence they came, and the GST. Referring specifically to the Howard Government, she asserted she was 'there to get rid of the bastards'. (56) Whether or not she was correct, such a tactic probably helped justify an anti-Coalition vote for some voters. At least one Queensland newspaper felt it necessary to warn voters that they must 'put into perspective' Hanson's 'list of federal grievances'. (57)

A postscript to the Queensland election-the by-election in Ryan

It would not normally be relevant to refer to a Commonwealth by-election in a study of a State general election. However, the proximity of the by-election (17 March) to the State election (17 February), the large movement of voters to the ALP in both, and the widespread assumption that together they could be read as presaging another large movement of voters in the forthcoming Commonwealth election, all suggest that a brief note on the by-election is not out of place in this paper.

Ryan was created in 1949. Between then and 2001 it had just two representatives, both Liberal.The retiring member, John Moore, had held the seat since 1975. After the 1998 election it was the fifth-safest Coalition electorate in Queensland. In that election, Moore's first preference margin over Labor was 20.1 per cent, and 19.0 per cent in two-party-preferred terms. It was therefore unlikely to fall to Labor in normal circumstances. In fact, Labor's first response to the by-election was to question the wisdom of even running a candidate. According to the Leader of the Opposition, the by-election was unlikely to be an indicator 'about anything much at all'. (58)

Despite this early uncertainty, Labor eventually decided to contest the by-election. By the time the campaign began, the change in the fortunes of the parties saw Labor's candidate, Leonie Short, campaigning as if the seat was winnable. The Liberals' Bob Tucker certainly did not assume the result was another inevitable Liberal victory. Tucker's campaign included the mail-out of a personal video detailing his background and ideas for the future. As was the case with the State election, Tucker's discussion of such local-level matters as local crime and congestion of local roads, showed yet again how issues cross borders in a federal system-presumably this was intended to contrast him with the performance of the previous sitting member. The blurring of federal boundaries was probably exaggerated by the regular presence of Premier Beattie in the campaign.

Tucker finished 3398 first preferences ahead of Short. Labor gained a first preference swing of 8.3 per cent; the Liberal slippage was 7.2 per cent. Short eventually won the electorate on preferences, and by 0.4 per cent in two-party-preferred terms. Labor's share of the two-party-preferred vote had increased by 9.7 per cent. (59)

Most observers put the result down to a loss of popularity of the Howard Government rather than a positive acceptance of the Opposition's policies. The research and strategic marketing firm, Marketshare, analysed swing voters, and noted certain 'key factors associated with the primary swing to the ALP':

  • where persons in the construction industry (ranging from engineers to labourers) comprised 5.5 per cent of all workers in a voting area, the swing exceeded 8 per cent
  • such a movement of votes was exacerbated in any area with a high proportion of retail employees.
  • age seemed important, so that the proportion of 35-55 year-olds 'was positively related to the ALP swing', and
  • households in the $50 000-65 000 bracket 'were most likely to swing from Liberal to Labor'.

These findings seemed to suggest a loss of support for the Government among such categories of voter. (60)

Some observers, including the Prime Minister, described the Ryan result as a 'protest' vote, an interpretation implying that such voters were likely to 'come back to us in the general election'. (61) By contrast, others put the emphasis on Ryan as 'the beginning of the end' for a government whose days were numbered. In fact, a lot of assertions (and counter-assertions) were made about whether the Ryan result could be called another 'Bass' (1975) or 'Canberra' (1995), by-elections that gave what could later be seen as a clear indication of the terminal position of the Whitlam and Keating Governments, respectively. (62) Such speculation is essentially futile before the event, for it would only be possible to so label Ryan if the Coalition actually lost the 2001 election. One possible protest factor that did not feature in the post-election discussion was the controversy over the Liberal Party's preselection for Ryan, which had caused public protest over the barring of a prominent candidate from the preselection ballot.

Minister for Employment, Workplace Relations and Small Business, Tony Abbott, was one observer who did not believe Ryan to be any type of harbinger of inevitable electoral doom. In an address to the Sydney Institute three days after polling, he spoke of what he described as three forces in Australia 'that were driving a sense of crisis':

  • 'a long standing popular disquiet' that was a product of both the pace of change in Australian society, as well as the 'human cost of economic re-structuring'
  • 'elite resentment of the Howard Government's social conservatism', and
  • the propensity for the Opposition to seize on bad news 'to talk Australia down'.

Giving a voice to these factors was the 'bad press' that was 'almost a "given" of Australian politics'. The result, according to the Minister, was that people who are 'essentially conservative', had become 'Labor's polling booth fodder'. The message implied in Abbott's analysis was that the Government's position could be restored, providing it could succeed in combating what he labelled the Labor- and media-inspired 'culture of despair'. (63) Although disagreeing with much of Abbott's analysis, Leader of the Opposition, Kim Beazley, seemed to be in agreement about the value of Ryan as a predictor of the 2001 election: 'I don't read into this an ultimate election victory for the Labor Party'. (64)

Another possible factor was resentment at an unnecessary by-election. Writing in the Canberra Times shortly before polling day, Malcolm Mackerras asserted that a Liberal defeat would be 'the result of growing public anger at politicians resigning their seats'. (65) He offered no evidence for this view. However, Newman's recent work on by-elections has suggested that voters may well react differently if a House of Representatives by-election is caused by death, rather than by a resignation. Between 1949 and 2001, the average two-party-preferred swing away from the party holding the electorate has been 2.5 per cent after a death, and 4.9 per cent after a resignation. In the past twenty years, indeed, the latter figure has been 5.8 per cent, suggesting an increasingly jaundiced electorate reacting to by-elections that could have been avoided. (66) The 'voter resentment' thesis may have also been lent weight by Prime Minister Howard's claim that he had agreed to the resignation of John Moore only after commissioned polling had suggested that the Liberals would retain Ryan easily. (67) If that polling was accurate, it suggests a massive shift of support in a very short time.

Whether or not Ryan is eventually seen as another 'Bass' or 'Canberra', it is likely to be remembered as a by-election that was part of a much bigger picture than just the replacement of a single MHR. Whatever the fate of the Howard Government, the State elections in Western Australia and Queensland, plus the Ryan contest, are likely to be regarded as indicators of a general loss of support for the national Government. An editorial in a rural Queensland newspaper indicated how likely this was, when, even before a vote had been cast in Ryan, the writer could assert that the Prime Minister would:

... mark down the first three months of 2001 as the time when, not only the voters of Ryan, but the voters of Australia sent him a message. (68)

Endnotes

  1. Glenn Worthington, 'Western Australian Election 2001', Current Issues Brief no. 10, 2000-01 , Department of the Parliamentary Library, Canberra.
  2. John Wanna, 'A conservative debacle: the electoral rout in Queensland 2001', Austalasian Parliamentary Review , vol. 16, no. 1, Autumn 2001, pp. 36-7; Scott Bennett, 'The Ehrmann Case-Aberration or Symptom?', Research Note no. 10, 2000-01 , Department of the Parliamentary Library, Canberra.
  3. Matthew Franklin, 'It helps to be an SOB', Courier-Mail , 27 November 2000.
  4. Paul Syvret, 'Queensland's One Man Band', Bulletin , 6 February 2001.
  5. 'ALP keeps the faith and its majority', Australian , 7 February 2000; Gold Coast Bulletin , 24 January 2001.
  6. Antony Green, '1999 Queensland redistribution: analysis of final boundaries', Research Bulletin 99/9, Queensland Parliamentary Library, December 1999.
  7. Scott Bennett and Gerard Newman, 'Victorian Election 1999', Research Paper no. 19, 1999-2000 , Department of the Parliamentary Library, Canberra, p. 7.
  8. Wanna, op. cit., p. 40.
  9. Australian , 26 January 2001, Courier-Mail , 2 February 2001; Wanna, op. cit., p. 41.
  10. Paul Syvret, 'Queensland's One Man Band', Bulletin , 6 February 2001, p. 18.
  11. Australian , 15 February 2001.
  12. Courier-Mail , 10 February 2001.
  13. 'Labor better chance to see state right', editorial, Courier-Mail , 16 February 2001.
  14. See, for example, 'Showdown looms for Libs, Nats', Australian , 10 March 2000; 'Three-way contest for Albert seat', Gold Coast Bulletin, 26 May 2000; 'Liberal candidate's doubts fire Nats' fury at Coalition partner', Australian , 5 June 2000; 'Poll contest strains Lib, Nat unity', Courier-Mail , 9 October 2000.
  15. Australian , 13 February 2001, Sydney Morning Herald, 1 February 2001, Australian , 9 February 2001.
  16. 'Shocked Feldman vows to fight on', Courier-Mail , 19 February 2001.
  17. Jacob Greber, 'Former One Nation voters hold the key;' Courier-Mail , 24 January 2001.
  18. Scott Bennett, 'The Decline in Support for the Major Parties and the Prospect of Minority Government', Research Paper no. 10, 1998-99 , Department of the Parliamentary Library, Canberra; Scott Bennett and Gerard Newman, 'New South Wales Election 1999', Research Paper no. 22, 1998-99 , Department of the Parliamentary Library, Canberra, p. 6, Worthington, op. cit. , p. 18.
  19. Age , 17 February 2001.
  20. John Wanna, 'Queensland July to December 1999', Australian Journal of Politics and History , vol. 46, no. 2, June 2000, p. 244.
  21. For the fate of the 11 One Nation MPs elected in 1998, see > Appendix 2 .
  22. Gerard Newman, '1998 Queensland Election', Current Issues Brief no. 2, 1998-99 , Department of the Parliamentary Library, Canberra, p. 4.
  23. Courier-Mail , 24 January 2001.
  24. 'Buoyant Greens set their sights on Senate seat', Courier-Mail , 19 February 2001.
  25. Jim Downey, 'Democrat vote holding in polls', Media Release, 21 February 2001; Meg Lees, 'Statement', 27 February 2001.
  26. Gerard Newman, 'Western Australian Election 2001: Statistical Analysis', Current Issues Brief no. 14, 2000-01 , p. 31.
  27. John Wanna to author, 17 April 2001.
  28. Worthington, op. cit. , p. 5.
  29. For more on three-cornered contests, see Scott Bennett, Winning and Losing , Melbourne University Press, Melbourne, 1996, pp. 52-3, Scott Bennett and Gerard Newman, 'New South Wales Election 1999' , Research Paper no. 22, 1998-99 , Department of the Parliamentary Library, Canberra, pp. 14-15, Scott Bennett and Gerard Newman, 'Victorian Election 1999', Research Paper no. 19, 1999-2000 , Department of the Parliamentary Library, Canberra, pp. 5-6.
  30. Australian , 19 February 2001.
  31. 'Beattie returns to ALP's roots for fresh start', Canberra Times , 22 January 2001.
  32. Gold Coast Bulletin , 12 January 2001.
  33. Australian , 16 January 2001.
  34. 'Labor better chance to see state right', editorial, Courier-Mail , 16 February 2001.
  35. 'State needs stability', Townsville Bulletin , 17 February 2001.
  36. Australian , 12 January 2001.
  37. Sydney Morning Herald , 24 January 2001.
  38. Wanna quoted in Courier-Mail , 17 February 2001, Reynolds quoted in Townsville Bulletin , 17 February 2001.
  39. 'Labor the analysts' favourite', Courier-Mail , 17 February 2001.
  40. 'State needs stability', Townsville Bulletin , 17 February 2001; 'Fighting for his political life', Australian Financial Review , 24 January 2001.
  41. Australian , 14 February 2001.
  42. Australian , 25 January 2001.
  43. 'Borbidge and his political opportunities', Courier-Mail , 16 June 2000.
  44. Tracey Arklay, 'Queensland January to June 2000', Australian Journal of Politics and History , vol. 46, no. 4, December 2000, p. 577.
  45. 'Powerbroker quits front bench in Liberal feud', Australian , 8 June 2000.
  46. Don Aitkin, Stability and change in Australian politics , Australian National University Press, Canberra, 1977, p. 246.
  47. 'Borbidge and his political opportunities', Courier-Mail , 16 June 2000.
  48. Scott Bennett, Affairs of State. Politics in the Australian States and Territories , Allen and Unwin, Sydney, 1992, pp. 192-3
  49. 'Scapegoat search reaches Canberra', West Australian , 12 February 2001.
  50. Worthington, op. cit. , p. 17.
  51. Courier-Mail , 19 February 2001.
  52. Gold Coast Bulletin , 7 February 2001; Weekend Australian , 10-11 February 2001.
  53. Courier-Mail , 19 February 2001.
  54. Courier-Mail , 26 February 2001; www.rayhopper.net.
  55. Scott Bennett, Affairs of State , op. cit., pp. 192-3.
  56. Australian , 15 February 2001.
  57. 'State needs stability', Townsville Bulletin , 17 February 2001.
  58. 'Labor may not contest Moore's safe seat', Australian Financial Review , 21 December 2000.
  59. Figures from Australian Electoral Commission: http://www.aec.gov.au/ryan/results/post/qldryan.htm .
  60. 'Construction industry and middle income earners most likely to switch from Liberal to Labor at Federal election', Marketshare News Release, 30 March 2001, p. 1.
  61. 'Howard vows to woo back Ryan voters next time', Australian Financial Review , 26 March 2001.
  62. For example, Dean Jaensch, 'Ryan by-election could be like Whitlam's Bass of 1975', Advertiser , 15 March 2001.
  63. Tony Abbott, 'Against Roonism-Combating the Culture of Despair', speech to Sydney Institute, 20 March 2001.
  64. 'Bruised but defiant Howard plots to woo Ryan swingers', Gold Coast Bulletin , 20 March 2001.
  65. Malcolm Mackerras, 'Electoral anger at Liberal "rats" ', Canberra Times , 21 March 2001.
  66. Gerard Newman, 'House of Representatives By-elections 1949-2001', Current Issues Brief no. 12, 2000-01 , p. 6.
  67. 'Howard accepts blame for by-election loss', Age , 28 March 2001.
  68. 'The State decides', Queensland Times (Ipswich), 17 March 2001.

 

Appendix 1: Voter support 1998-2001

'If a State election was held in Queensland today, which one of the following would you vote for?

If "uncommitted", to which one of these do you have a leaning?'

ALP
%

LIB
%

NP
%

PHON
%

GREEN
%

AD
%

OTHERS
%

Election
13 Jun 1998

38.8

16.1

15.2

22.7

2.4

1.6

3.2

Newspoll
Jan-Mar 1999

48

26

13

5

3

2

3

Newspoll
Apr-Jun 1999

47

24

16

5

2

3

3

Newspoll
Jul-Sep 1999

48

24

16

3

2

3

4

Newspoll
Oct-Dec 1999

45

28

16

3

2

2

4

Newspoll
Jan-Mar 2000

47

26

13

2

2

2

8

Newspoll
Apr-Jun 2000

50

22

15

2

2

1

8

Newspoll
Jul-Sep 2000

49

23

15

3

3

1

6

Newspoll
Oct-Dec 2000

43

23

16

3

3

3

9

Newspoll
30 Jan-1 Feb

52

18

16

4

3

n.a.

7

Newspoll
14-15 Feb

49

13

13

12

2

n.a.

11

Election
17 Feb 2001

49

14

14

9

3

0.3

11

Sources: Courier-Mail , 24 January 2001, Weekend Australian , 17-18 February 2001.

Appendix 2: One Nation MLAs elected 1998

Member

Electorate

Won from

Affiliation at
2001 election

2001 election
fate

Electorate affiliation
after 2001

Harry Black

Whitsunday

ALP

CCA

Defeated

ALP

David Dalgleish

Hervey Bay

ALP

CCA

Defeated

ALP

Bill Feldman

Caboolture

ALP

CCA

Defeated (Pumicestone)

ALP

John Kingston

Maryborough

ALP

Independent

Retained electorate

Independent

Jeff Knuth

Burdekin

NPA

CCA

Defeated

ALP

Shaun Nelson

Tablelands

NPA

Independent

Defeated

ON

Jack Paff

Ipswich West

ALP

CCA

Defeated

ALP

Dolly Pratt

Barambah

NPA

Independent

Won (Nanango)

Independent

Peter Prenzler

Lockyer

NPA

CCA

Defeated

ON

Charles Rappolt

Mulgrave

NPA

Resigned Parliament 1998

Won by ALP, by-election

ALP

Ken Turner

Thuringowa

ALP

Independent

Defeated

ALP

Appendix 3: Results

Table 1 Legislative Assembly: State Summary

Candidates

Seats Won

First Preference Votes

Change from 1998

Number

Per cent

Seats

Votes

Australian Labor Party

89

66

1 007 737

48.93

+22

+10.07

Liberal Party

50

3

294 968

14.32

-6

-1.77

National Party

45

12

291 605

14.16

-11

-1.01

Pauline Hanson's One Nation

39

3

179 076

8.69

-8

-13.99

The Greens

31

51 630

2.51

+0.15

City Country Alliance

25

49 263

2.39

+2.39

Australian Democrats

6

7 029

0.34

-1.27

Christian Democratic Party

1

919

0.04

-0.07

Independents

77

5

177 334

8.61

+3

+5.48

Formal Votes

2 059 561

97.73

-0.82

Informal Votes

47 849

2.27

+0.82

Total/Turnout

363

89

2 107 410

92.59

-0.26

Electors Enrolled

2 276 044

 

Table 2a Legislative Assembly: First Preference Votes, District Summary
Number

District

ALP

LP

NP

ON

GRN

CCA

Oth

Formal

Informal

Total

Enrolled

Albert

11 551

3 092

2 725

5 438

22 806

578

23 384

25 364

Algester

15 709

5 343

2 494

23 546

632

24 178

25 796

Ashgrove

13 630

7 263

1 459

2 223

24 575

414

24 989

26 977

Aspley

13 150

10 894

24 044

770

24 814

26 372

Barron River

9 511

3 588

3 587

1 212

4 213

22 111

336

22 447

24 818

Beaudesert

8 868

8 297

7 680

1 166

26 011

433

26 444

28 051

Brisbane Central

14 894

4 839

1 579

1 698

23 010

441

23 451

26 646

Broadwater

12 388

11 231

23 619

1 092

24 711

27 267

Bulimba

16 295

5 960

22 255

814

23 069

25 208

Bundaberg

15 812

8 552

24 364

1 079

25 443

27 155

Bundamba

15 356

3 196

2 881

21 433

896

22 329

23 897

Burdekin

7 808

4 836

4 180

4 439

21 263

341

21 604

23 291

Burleigh

11 445

10 020

4 385

25 850

588

26 438

29 191

Burnett

11 169

10 433

21 602

1 179

22 781

24 416

Cairns

11 170

4 819

4 394

1 297

21 680

419

22 099

24 882

Callide

5 694

9 598

8 648

23 940

424

24 364

25 950

Caloundra

8 658

9 200

4 555

1 430

23 843

423

24 266

26 046

Capalaba

10 577

3 051

2 958

7 668

24 254

633

24 887

26 328

Charters Towers

7 575

5 984

3 745

17 304

165

17 469

18 645

Chatsworth

14 530

6 813

2 813

1 389

25 545

532

26 077

27 566

Clayfield

10 839

9 948

1 228

1 582

23 597

394

23 991

26 067

Cleveland

13 529

5 880

4 099

23 508

613

24 121

25 779

Cook

10 727

2 610

3 465

16 802

282

17 084

19 587

Cunningham

5 686

3 368

5 661

4 700

502

2 834

22 751

301

23 052

24 787

Currumbin

13 801

6 251

3 823

590

24 465

421

24 886

27 294

Darling Downs

4 749

8 855

9 069

22 673

400

23 073

24 272

Everton

15 719

6 990

2 302

25 011

517

25 528

27 058

Ferny Grove

16 466

6 756

2 774

25 996

599

26 595

28 114

Fitzroy

13 599

6 187

1 879

21 665

351

22 016

23 457

Gaven

9 969

7 178

1 839

2 479

21 465

767

22 232

24 357

Gladstone

10 992

571

450

12 336

24 349

285

24 634

26 088

Glass House

9 989

2 612

4 408

4 993

1 628

867

24 497

439

24 936

26 683

Greenslopes

13 744

7 639

2 491

915

24 789

498

25 287

27 320

Gregory

6 897

10 047

16 944

476

17 420

18 723

Gympie

8 563

6 330

6 587

4 139

25 619

399

26 018

27 757

Hervey Bay

9 707

3 915

4 186

4 193

723

22 724

379

23 103

24 613

Hinchinbrook

5 313

5 862

5 362

270

3 534

20 341

362

20 703

22 236

Inala

14 434

2 180

4 585

21 199

551

21 750

23 269

Indooroopilly

9 028

8 686

879

2 351

2 375

23 319

260

23 579

26 105

Ipswich

12 282

2 641

5 237

642

243

3 610

24 655

410

25 065

26 593

Ipswich West

10 768

4 469

6 002

1 016

1 200

23 455

390

23 845

25 180

Kallangur

13 312

4 366

1 656

1 740

1 750

22 824

642

23 466

25 045

Kawana

10 446

9 438

4 708

24 592

496

25 088

26 943

Keppel

9 281

9 285

3 030

21 596

404

22 000

23 668

Kurwongbah

16 889

5 757

1 762

963

1 460

26 831

663

27 494

29 147

Lockyer

6 428

3 947

6 608

665

4 197

1 495

23 340

434

23 774

25 189

Logan

15 645

6 001

21 646

1 275

22 921

24 752

Lytton

16 305

5 329

2 736

24 370

697

25 067

26 483

Mackay

14 235

7 594

2 433

24 262

580

24 842

27 063

Mansfield

13 296

8 646

2 960

24 902

463

25 365

27 018

Maroochydore

9 762

9 446

4 530

23 738

492

24 230

26 914

Maryborough

10 081

3 492

1 844

8 579

23 996

582

24 578

25 833

Mirani

7 296

7 672

4 729

2 275

21 972

303

22 275

23 623

Moggill

9 408

9 872

1 566

3 618

24 464

373

24 837

26 733

Mt Coot-tha

11 741

6 135

2 740

2 409

23 025

348

23 373

26 343

Mt Gravatt

13 187

6 509

2 248

1 141

1 066

24 151

490

24 641

26 271

Mt Isa

8 981

3 220

3 384

15 585

216

15 801

17 811

Mt Ommaney

12 483

4 731

1 141

5 657

24 012

322

24 334

26 213

Mudgeeraba

9 371

6 952

2 025

4 334

22 682

750

23 432

25 732

Mulgrave

11 903

4 443

5 847

22 193

383

22 576

24 503

Mundingburra

11 640

6 780

4 056

904

439

23 819

484

24 303

26 566

Murrumba

14 839

4 498

4 408

23 745

635

24 380

25 882

Nanango

5 882

5 400

9 680

20 962

451

21 413

22 710

Nicklin

4 224

2 305

1 941

3 992

932

11 554

24 948

304

25 252

27 249

Noosa

10 828

10 391

4 543

25 762

486

26 248

28 739

Nudgee

18 252

6 042

24 294

882

25 176

26 860

Pumicestone

11 360

4 380

3 953

610

3 805

453

24 561

439

25 000

26 648

Redcliffe

13 989

5 789

866

4 091

24 735

606

25 341

27 292

Redlands

10 797

6 500

1 731

3 210

22 238

611

22 849

24 229

Robina

10 909

12 822

23 731

1 171

24 902

27 655

Rockhampton

15 926

5 053

2 056

23 035

592

23 627

25 306

Sandgate

16 242

4 890

3 179

24 311

565

24 876

26 426

South Brisbane

14 329

4 720

2 150

2 725

23 924

638

24 562

27 729

Southern Downs

6 459

13 092

5 818

25 369

451

25 820

27 551

Southport

11 245

6 434

3 351

1 083

22 113

551

22 664

25 127

Springwood

11 192

3 590

4 613

5 140

24 535

624

25 159

27 138

Stafford

16 190

5 982

2 590

24 762

591

25 353

27 169

Stretton

14 778

8 805

23 583

894

24 477

26 604

Surfers Paradise

9 259

12 033

2 899

24 191

784

24 975

28 321

Tablelands

5 325

3 522

7 722

4 889

21 458

313

21 771

23 448

Thuringowa

9 952

2 447

4 532

762

6 569

24 262

633

24 895

26 763

Toowoomba North

9 772

8 795

1 529

2 061

22 157

527

22 684

24 335

Toowoomba South

7 439

10 028

4 577

857

22 901

374

23 275

25 152

Townsville

11 494

7 848

2 775

22 117

725

22 842

25 513

Warrego

3 243

6 737

4 733

5 193

19 906

239

20 145

21 600

Waterford

12 378

3 267

5 465

910

22 020

625

22 645

24 793

Whitsunday

10 026

5 237

2 677

2 919

799

21 658

334

21 992

24 015

Woodridge

11 992

1 272

4 336

3 330

20 930

579

21 509

23 605

Yeerongpilly

15 135

5 215

1 877

2 247

24 474

545

25 019

27 130

Total

1 007 737

294 968

291 605

179 076

51 630

49 263

185 282

2 059 561

47 849

2 107 410

2 276 044

Regions

Brisbane

523 329

203 494

21 583

29 938

37 169

9 960

78 494

903 967

22 432

926 399

997 137

Gold/Sunshine
Coasts

165 205

67 443

65 416

48 271

9 933

4 672

21 923

382 863

9 781

392 644

429 530

Regional/Rural

319 203

24 031

204 606

100 867

4 528

34 631

84 865

772 731

15 636

788 367

849 377

Table 2b Legislative Assembly: First Preference Votes, District Summary
Per cent

District

ALP

LP

NP

ON

GRN

CCA

Oth

Formal

Informal

Total

Albert

50.6

13.6

11.9

23.8

97.5

2.5

92.2

Algester

66.7

22.7

10.6

97.4

2.6

93.7

Ashgrove

55.5

29.6

5.9

9.0

98.3

1.7

92.6

Aspley

54.7

45.3

96.9

3.1

94.1

Barron River

43.0

16.2

16.2

5.5

19.1

98.5

1.5

90.4

Beaudesert

34.1

31.9

29.5

4.5

98.4

1.6

94.3

Brisbane Central

64.7

21.0

6.9

7.4

98.1

1.9

88.0

Broadwater

52.4

47.6

95.6

4.4

90.6

Bulimba

73.2

26.8

96.5

3.5

91.5

Bundaberg

64.9

35.1

95.8

4.2

93.7

Bundamba

71.6

14.9

13.4

96.0

4.0

93.4

Burdekin

36.7

22.7

19.7

20.9

98.4

1.6

92.8

Burleigh

44.3

38.8

17.0

97.8

2.2

90.6

Burnett

51.7

48.3

94.8

5.2

93.3

Cairns

51.5

22.2

20.3

6.0

98.1

1.9

88.8

Callide

23.8

40.1

36.1

98.3

1.7

93.9

Caloundra

36.3

38.6

19.1

6.0

98.3

1.7

93.2

Capalaba

43.6

12.6

12.2

31.6

97.5

2.5

94.5

Charters Towers

43.8

34.6

21.6

99.1

0.9

93.7

Chatsworth

56.9

26.7

11.0

5.4

98.0

2.0

94.6

Clayfield

45.9

42.2

5.2

6.7

98.4

1.6

92.0

Cleveland

57.6

25.0

17.4

97.5

2.5

93.6

Cook

63.8

15.5

20.6

98.3

1.7

87.2

Cunningham

25.0

14.8

24.9

20.7

2.2

12.5

98.7

1.3

93.0

Currumbin

56.4

25.6

15.6

2.4

98.3

1.7

91.2

Darling Downs

20.9

39.1

40.0

98.3

1.7

95.1

Everton

62.8

27.9

9.2

98.0

2.0

94.3

Ferny Grove

63.3

26.0

10.7

97.7

2.3

94.6

Fitzroy

62.8

28.6

8.7

98.4

1.6

93.9

Gaven

46.4

33.4

8.6

11.5

96.6

3.4

91.3

Gladstone

45.1

2.3

1.8

50.7

98.8

1.2

94.4

Glass House

40.8

10.7

18.0

20.4

6.6

3.5

98.2

1.8

93.5

Greenslopes

55.4

30.8

10.0

3.7

98.0

2.0

92.6

Gregory

40.7

59.3

97.3

2.7

93.0

Gympie

33.4

24.7

25.7

16.2

98.5

1.5

93.7

Hervey Bay

42.7

17.2

18.4

18.5

3.2

98.4

1.6

93.9

Hinchinbrook

26.1

28.8

26.4

1.3

17.4

98.3

1.7

93.1

Inala

68.1

10.3

21.6

97.5

2.5

93.5

Indooroopilly

38.7

37.2

3.8

10.1

10.2

98.9

1.1

90.3

Ipswich

49.8

10.7

21.2

2.6

1.0

14.6

98.4

1.6

94.3

Ipswich West

45.9

19.1

25.6

4.3

5.1

98.4

1.6

94.7

Kallangur

58.3

19.1

7.3

7.6

7.7

97.3

2.7

93.7

Kawana

42.5

38.4

19.1

98.0

2.0

93.1

Keppel

43.0

43.0

14.0

98.2

1.8

93.0

Kurwongbah

62.9

21.5

6.6

3.6

5.4

97.6

2.4

94.3

Lockyer

27.5

16.9

28.3

2.8

18.0

6.4

98.2

1.8

94.4

Logan

72.3

27.7

94.4

5.6

92.6

Lytton

66.9

21.9

11.2

97.2

2.8

94.7

Mackay

58.7

31.3

10.0

97.7

2.3

91.8

Mansfield

53.4

34.7

11.9

98.2

1.8

93.9

Maroochydore

41.1

39.8

19.1

98.0

2.0

90.0

Maryborough

42.0

14.6

7.7

35.8

97.6

2.4

95.1

Mirani

33.2

34.9

21.5

10.4

98.6

1.4

94.3

Moggill

38.5

40.4

6.4

14.8

98.5

1.5

92.9

Mt Coot-tha

51.0

26.6

11.9

10.5

98.5

1.5

88.7

Mt Gravatt

54.6

27.0

9.3

4.7

4.4

98.0

2.0

93.8

Mt Isa

57.6

20.7

21.7

98.6

1.4

88.7

Mt Ommaney

52.0

19.7

4.8

23.6

98.7

1.3

92.8

Mudgeeraba

41.3

30.6

8.9

19.1

96.8

3.2

91.1

Mulgrave

53.6

20.0

26.3

98.3

1.7

92.1

Mundingburra

48.9

28.5

17.0

3.8

1.8

98.0

2.0

91.5

Murrumba

62.5

18.9

18.6

97.4

2.6

94.2

Nanango

28.1

25.8

46.2

97.9

2.1

94.3

Nicklin

16.9

9.2

7.8

16.0

3.7

46.3

98.8

1.2

92.7

Noosa

42.0

40.3

17.6

98.1

1.9

91.3

Nudgee

75.1

24.9

96.5

3.5

93.7

Pumicestone

46.3

17.8

16.1

2.5

15.5

1.8

98.2

1.8

93.8

Redcliffe

56.6

23.4

3.5

16.5

97.6

2.4

92.9

Redlands

48.6

29.2

7.8

14.4

97.3

2.7

94.3

Robina

46.0

54.0

95.3

4.7

90.0

Rockhampton

69.1

21.9

8.9

97.5

2.5

93.4

Sandgate

66.8

20.1

13.1

97.7

2.3

94.1

South Brisbane

59.9

19.7

9.0

11.4

97.4

2.6

88.6

Southern Downs

25.5

51.6

22.9

98.3

1.7

93.7

Southport

50.9

29.1

15.2

4.9

97.6

2.4

90.2

Springwood

45.6

14.6

18.8

20.9

97.5

2.5

92.7

Stafford

65.4

24.2

10.5

97.7

2.3

93.3

Stretton

62.7

37.3

96.3

3.7

92.0

Surfers Paradise

38.3

49.7

12.0

96.9

3.1

88.2

Tablelands

24.8

16.4

36.0

22.8

98.6

1.4

92.8

Thuringowa

41.0

10.1

18.7

3.1

27.1

97.5

2.5

93.0

Toowoomba North

44.1

39.7

6.9

9.3

97.7

2.3

93.2

Toowoomba South

32.5

43.8

20.0

3.7

98.4

1.6

92.5

Townsville

52.0

35.5

12.5

96.8

3.2

89.5

Warrego

16.3

33.8

23.8

26.1

98.8

1.2

93.3

Waterford

56.2

14.8

24.8

4.1

97.2

2.8

91.3

Whitsunday

46.3

24.2

12.4

13.5

3.7

98.5

1.5

91.6

Woodridge

57.3

6.1

20.7

15.9

97.3

2.7

91.1

Yeerongpilly

61.8

21.3

7.7

9.2

97.8

2.2

92.2

Total

48.9

14.3

14.2

8.7

2.5

2.4

9.0

97.7

2.3

92.6

Regions

Brisbane

57.9

22.5

2.4

3.3

4.1

1.1

8.7

97.6

2.4

92.9

Gold/Sunshine
Coasts

43.1

17.6

17.1

12.6

2.6

1.2

5.7

97.5

2.5

91.4

Regional/Rural

41.3

3.1

26.5

13.1

0.6

4.5

11.0

98.0

2.0

92.8

Table 3 Legislative Assembly: District Detail

Albert

 

 

Enrolled 25 364

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Evans

ONP

5 438

23.8

Keech

ALP

11 551

50.6

Johanson

LP

3 092

13.6

McMullan

NP

2 725

11.9

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Evans

ONP

7 875

37.4

Keech

ALP

13 207

62.6

Exhausted

 

1 724

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

22 806

97.5

Informal

 

578

2.5

Turnout

 

23 384

92.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Algester

 

 

Enrolled 25 796

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Struthers

ALP

15 709

66.7

Cole

LP

5 343

22.7

Lamb

CDP

919

3.9

Watt

IND

1 575

6.7

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Struthers

ALP

16 140

72.6

Cole

LP

6 082

27.4

Exhausted

 

1 324

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

23 546

97.4

Informal

 

632

2.6

Turnout

 

24 178

93.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ashgrove

 

 

Enrolled 26 977

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Matthews

AD

1 300

5.3

Fouras

ALP

13 630

55.5

Anderson

IND

923

3.8

Carey-Smith

GRN

1 459

5.9

Cook

LP

7 263

29.6

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Fouras

ALP

15 068

65.0

Cook

LP

8 102

35.0

Exhausted

 

1 405

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

24 575

98.3

Informal

 

414

1.7

Turnout

 

24 989

92.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aspley

 

 

Enrolled 26 372

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Barry

ALP

13 150

54.7

Goss

LP

10 894

45.3

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

24 044

96.9

Informal

 

770

3.1

Turnout

 

24 814

94.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Barron River

 

 

Enrolled 24 818

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Starr

ONP

3 587

16.2

Warwick

LP

3 588

16.2

Clark

ALP

9 511

43.0

Bonneau

IND

4 213

19.1

Walls

GRN

1 212

5.5

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Clark

ALP

10 759

57.3

Bonneau

IND

8 031

42.7

Exhausted

 

3 321

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

22 111

98.5

Informal

 

336

1.5

Turnout

 

22 447

90.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Beaudesert

 

 

Enrolled 28 051

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Benson

ONP

7 680

29.5

Limburg

IND

1 166

4.5

Lingard

NP

8 297

31.9

Stephenson

ALP

8 868

34.1

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Lingard

NP

10 876

52.0

Stephenson

ALP

10 042

48.0

Exhausted

 

5 093

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

26 011

98.4

Informal

 

433

1.6

Turnout

 

26 444

94.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brisbane Central

 

 

Enrolled 26 646

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Skyring

IND

127

0.6

Buckley

IND

112

0.5

Beattie

ALP

14 894

64.7

Wynter

IND

200

0.9

Dalton

IND

84

0.4

Tonite

IND

974

4.2

Tornatore

IND

201

0.9

Vasta

LP

4 839

21.0

Nielsen

GRN

1 579

6.9

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Beattie

ALP

15 936

75.0

Vasta

LP

5 322

25.0

Exhausted

 

1 752

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

23 010

98.1

Informal

 

441

1.9

Turnout

 

23 451

88.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Broadwater

 

 

Enrolled 27 267

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Croft

ALP

12 388

52.4

Grice

NP

11 231

47.6

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

23 619

95.6

Informal

 

1 092

4.4

Turnout

 

24 711

90.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bulimba

 

 

Enrolled 25 208

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Woollett

LP

5 960

26.8

Purcell

ALP

16 295

73.2

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

22 255

96.5

Informal

 

814

3.5

Turnout

 

23 069

91.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bundaberg

 

 

Enrolled 27 155

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Cunningham

ALP

15 812

64.9

Porter

NP

8 552

35.1

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

24 364

95.8

Informal

 

1 079

4.2

Turnout

 

25 443

93.7

 

 

 

 

Bundamba

 

 

Enrolled 23 897

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Miller

ALP

15 356

71.7

McLean

LP

3 196

14.9

McKeon

GRN

2 881

13.4

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Miller

ALP

16 043

80.9

McLean

LP

3 786

19.1

Exhausted

 

1 604

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

21 433

96.0

Informal

 

896

4.0

Turnout

 

22 329

93.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Burdekin

 

 

Enrolled 23 291

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Knuth

CCA

4 439

20.9

Poletto

ONP

4 180

19.7

Rodgers

ALP

7 808

36.7

Morato

NP

4 836

22.7

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Rodgers

ALP

8 863

55.1

Morato

NP

7 215

44.9

Exhausted

 

5 185

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

21 263

98.4

Informal

 

341

1.6

Turnout

 

21 604

92.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Burleigh

 

 

Enrolled 29 191

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Pepperell

ONP

4 385

17.0

Gamin

NP

10 020

38.8

Smith

ALP

11 445

44.3

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Gamin

NP

11 233

48.2

Smith

ALP

12 062

51.8

Exhausted

 

2 555

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

25 850

97.8

Informal

 

588

2.2

Turnout

 

26 438

90.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Burnett

 

 

Enrolled 24 416

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Strong

ALP

11 169

51.7

Slack

NP

10 433

48.3

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

21 602

94.8

Informal

 

1 179

5.2

Turnout

 

22 781

93.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cairns

 

 

Enrolled 24 882

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Boyle

ALP

11 170

51.5

Wilson

NP

4 819

22.2

Hart

GRN

1 297

6.0

Gargan

ONP

4 394

20.3

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Boyle

ALP

12 400

64.8

Wilson

NP

6 730

35.2

Exhausted

 

2 550

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

21 680

98.1

Informal

 

419

1.9

Turnout

 

22 099

88.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Callide

 

 

Enrolled 25 950

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Seeney

NP

9 598

40.1

Allen

ALP

5 694

23.8

Dwyer

ONP

8 648

36.1

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Seeney

NP

10 265

52.3

Dwyer

ONP

9 355

47.7

Exhausted

 

4 320

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

23 940

98.3

Informal

 

424

1.7

Turnout

 

24 364

93.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Caloundra

 

 

Enrolled 26 046

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Wilkinson

IND

1 430

6.0

Anthony

ALP

8 658

36.3

Tannock

ONP

4 555

19.1

Sheldon

LP

9 200

38.6

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Anthony

ALP

10 234

49.0

Sheldon

LP

10 637

51.0

Exhausted

 

2 972

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

23 843

98.3

Informal

 

423

1.7

Turnout

 

24 266

93.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Capalaba

 

 

Enrolled 26 328

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Elliott

IND

3 835

15.8

Choi

ALP

10 577

43.6

Reimers

IND

158

0.7

Bowler

IND

3 403

14.0

Brown

IND

272

1.1

O'Rourke

ONP

2 958

12.2

Costello

LP

3 051

12.6

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Choi

ALP

11 650

64.6

Bowler

IND

6 379

35.4

Exhausted

 

6 225

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

24 254

97.5

Informal

 

633

2.5

Turnout

 

24 887

94.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Charters Towers

 

 

Enrolled 18 645

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Mitchell

NP

5 984

34.6

Scott

ALP

7 575

43.8

Ree

ONP

3 745

21.6

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Mitchell

NP

7 460

47.8

Scott

ALP

8 138

52.2

Exhausted

 

1 706

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

17 304

99.1

Informal

 

165

0.9

Turnout

 

17 469

93.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chatsworth

 

 

Enrolled 27 566

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Echaubard

ONP

2 813

11.0

Wilson

GRN

1 389

5.4

Leu

LP

6 813

26.7

Mackenroth

ALP

14 530

56.9

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Leu

LP

8 322

34.9

Mackenroth

ALP

15 555

65.1

Exhausted

 

1 668

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

25 545

98.0

Informal

 

532

2.0

Turnout

 

26 077

94.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Clayfield

 

 

Enrolled 26 067

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Clark

ALP

10 839

45.9

Santoro

LP

9 948

42.2

Hegge

GRN

1 228

5.2

Brittan

IND

1 582

6.7

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Clark

ALP

11 593

52.0

Santoro

LP

10 708

48.0

Exhausted

 

1 296

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

23 597

98.4

Informal

 

394

1.6

Turnout

 

23 991

92.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cleveland

 

 

Enrolled 25 779

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Friis

LP

5 880

25.0

Briskey

ALP

13 529

57.6

Barton

IND

4 099

17.4

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Friis

LP

7 152

33.3

Briskey

ALP

14 300

66.7

Exhausted

 

2 056

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

23 508

97.5

Informal

 

613

2.5

Turnout

 

24 121

93.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cook

 

 

Enrolled 19 587

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Webb

ONP

3 465

20.6

Hollingsworth

NP

2 610

15.5

Bredhaurer

ALP

10 727

63.8

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Webb

ONP

4 162

27.1

Bredhaurer

ALP

11 175

72.9

Exhausted

 

1 465

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

16 802

98.3

Informal

 

282

1.7

Turnout

 

17 084

87.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cunningham

 

 

Enrolled 24 787

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Collins

IND

2 834

12.5

Drinan

ONP

4 700

20.7

King

ALP

5 686

25.0

Copeland

NP

5 661

24.9

Reynolds

CCA

502

2.2

Rookas

LP

3 368

14.8

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

King

ALP

6 893

41.4

Copeland

NP

9 769

58.6

Exhausted

 

6 089

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

22 751

98.7

Informal

 

301

1.3

Turnout

 

23 052

93.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Currumbin

 

 

Enrolled 27 294

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Rose

ALP

13 801

56.4

Stuckey

LP

6 251

25.6

Horsburgh

ONP

3 823

15.6

Rossini

IND

590

2.4

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Rose

ALP

14 581

64.5

Stuckey

LP

8 009

35.5

Exhausted

 

1 875

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

24 465

98.3

Informal

 

421

1.7

Turnout

 

24 886

91.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Darling Downs

 

 

Enrolled 24 272

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Martin

ALP

4 749

20.9

Taylor

NP

8 855

39.1

Hopper

IND

9 069

40.0

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Taylor

NP

9 226

48.9

Hopper

IND

9 651

51.1

Exhausted

 

3 796

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

22 673

98.3

Informal

 

400

1.7

Turnout

 

23 073

95.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Everton

 

 

Enrolled 27 058

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Edwards

CCA

2 302

9.2

Dangerfield

LP

6 990

27.9

Welford

ALP

15 719

62.8

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Dangerfield

LP

7 749

32.5

Welford

ALP

16 063

67.5

Exhausted

 

1 199

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

25 011

98.0

Informal

 

517

2.0

Turnout

 

25 528

94.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ferny Grove

 

 

Enrolled 28 114

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Eaton

LP

6 756

26.0

Stasse

GRN

2 774

10.7

Wilson

ALP

16 466

63.3

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Eaton

LP

7 302

29.5

Wilson

ALP

17 488

70.5

Exhausted

 

1 206

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

25 996

97.7

Informal

 

599

2.3

Turnout

 

26 595

94.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fitzroy

 

 

Enrolled 23 457

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Schuback

CCA

1 879

8.7

Pearce

ALP

13 599

62.8

Lawrie

NP

6 187

28.6

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Pearce

ALP

13 915

67.2

Lawrie

NP

6 797

32.8

Exhausted

 

953

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

21 665

98.4

Informal

 

351

1.6

Turnout

 

22 016

93.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gaven

 

 

Enrolled 24 357

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Spain

GRN

1 839

8.6

Poole

ALP

9 969

46.4

Connolly

IND

1 883

8.8

Cassidy

IND

596

2.8

Baumann

NP

7 178

33.4

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Poole

ALP

10 776

57.6

Baumann

NP

7 933

42.4

Exhausted

 

2 756

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

21 465

96.6

Informal

 

767

3.4

Turnout

 

22 232

91.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gladstone

 

 

Enrolled 26 088

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Warren

GRN

450

1.8

Cunningham

IND

12 336

50.7

Ellingsen

ALP

10 992

45.1

Hamann

NP

571

2.3

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Cunningham

IND

12 772

53.5

Ellingsen

ALP

11 103

46.5

Exhausted

 

474

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

24 349

98.8

Informal

 

285

1.2

Turnout

 

24 634

94.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Glass House

 

 

Enrolled 26 683

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Chippendale

NP

4 408

18.0

Ferraro

ONP

4 993

20.4

Janke

CCA

867

3.5

Cannon

GRN

1 628

6.6

Male

ALP

9 989

40.8

Taylor

LP

2 612

10.7

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Chippendale

NP

7 869

40.4

Male

ALP

11 598

59.6

Exhausted

 

5 030

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

24 497

98.2

Informal

 

439

1.8

Turnout

 

24 936

93.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Greenslopes

 

 

Enrolled 27 320

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Fenlon

ALP

13 744

55.4

Edwards

LP

7 639

30.8

Whitney

CCA

915

3.7

Curley

GRN

2 491

10.0

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Fenlon

ALP

14 791

64.1

Edwards

LP

8 289

35.9

Exhausted

 

1 709

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

24 789

98.0

Informal

 

498

2.0

Turnout

 

25 287

62.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gregory

 

 

Enrolled 18 723

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

McDonell

ALP

6 897

40.7

Johnson

NP

10 047

59.3

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

16 944

97.3

Informal

 

476

2.7

Turnout

 

17 420

93.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gympie

 

 

Enrolled 27 757

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Gate

ALP

8 563

33.4

Petersen

CCA

4 139

16.2

Roberts

ONP

6 587

25.7

Duff

NP

6 330

24.7

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Gate

ALP

9 766

46.7

Roberts

ONP

11 130

53.3

Exhausted

 

4 723

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

25 619

98.5

Informal

 

399

1.5

Turnout

 

26 018

93.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hervey Bay

 

 

Enrolled 24 613

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Robinson

ONP

4 186

18.4

McLellan

NP

3 915

17.2

Donnelly

IND

723

3.2

Dalgleish

CCA

4 193

18.5

McNamara

ALP

9 707

42.7

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Robinson

ONP

7 762

42.4

McNamara

ALP

10 559

57.6

Exhausted

 

4 403

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

22 724

98.4

Informal

 

379

1.6

Turnout

 

23 103

93.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hinchinbrook

 

 

Enrolled 22 236

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Steley

CCA

270

1.3

Lancini

IND

3 534

17.4

Rowell

NP

5 862

28.8

Small

ALP

5 313

26.1

Ralph

ONP

5 362

26.4

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Rowell

NP

7 192

52.8

Ralph

ONP

6 436

47.2

Exhausted

 

6 713

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

20 341

98.3

Informal

 

362

1.7

Turnout

 

20 703

93.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Inala

 

 

Enrolled 23 269

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Palaszczuk

ALP

14 434

68.1

Pugh

IND

4 585

21.6

Jackson

LP

2 180

10.3

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Palaszczuk

ALP

14 606

52.8

Pugh

IND

5 836

47.2

Exhausted

 

757

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

21 199

97.5

Informal

 

551

2.5

Turnout

 

21 750

93.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Indooroopilly

 

 

Enrolled 26 105

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Sakzewski

IND

997

4.3

Lee

ALP

9 028

38.7

Hutton

GRN

2 351

10.1

Freemarijuana

IND

434

1.9

Drew

ONP

879

3.8

Beanland

LP

8 686

37.2

McIntyre

AD

944

4.0

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Lee

ALP

11 245

52.9

Beanland

LP

10 022

47.1

Exhausted

 

2 052

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

23 319

98.9

Informal

 

260

1.1

Turnout

 

23 579

90.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ipswich

 

 

Enrolled 26 593

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Jaenke

IND

1 303

5.3

Nolan

ALP

12 282

49.8

Nardi

IND

2 200

8.9

Mahoney

GRN

642

2.6

Cameron

IND

107

0.4

Atkin

CCA

243

1.0

Magnussen

ONP

5 237

21.2

Forbes

LP

2 641

10.7

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Nolan

ALP

14 029

66.8

Magnussen

ONP

6 985

33.2

Exhausted

 

3 641

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

24 655

98.4

Informal

 

410

1.6

Turnout

 

25 065

94.3

 

 

 

 

Ipswich West

 

 

Enrolled 25 180

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Dutton

ONP

6 002

25.6

Livingstone

ALP

10 768

45.9

Glass

GRN

1 016

4.3

Paff

CCA

1 200

5.1

Pahlke

NP

4 469

19.1

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Dutton

ONP

8 679

42.7

Livingstone

ALP

11 645

57.3

Exhausted

 

3 131

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

23 455

98.4

Informal

 

390

1.6

Turnout

 

23 845

94.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kallangur

 

 

Enrolled 25 045

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Hayward

ALP

13 312

58.3

Eldridge

CCA

1 740

7.6

Tooke

GRN

1 656

7.3

Jones

IND

1 750

7.7

Driscoll

LP

4 366

19.1

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Hayward

ALP

14 165

71.4

Driscoll

LP

5 681

28.6

Exhausted

 

2 978

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

22 824

97.3

Informal

 

642

2.7

Turnout

 

23 466

93.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kawana

 

 

Enrolled 26 943

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Savage

ONP

4 708

19.1

Cummins

ALP

10 446

42.5

Laming

LP

9 438

38.4

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Cummins

ALP

11 801

52.6

Laming

LP

10 625

47.4

Exhausted

 

2 166

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

24 592

98.0

Informal

 

496

2.0

Turnout

 

25 088

93.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Keppel

 

 

Enrolled 23 668

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Mather

CCA

3 030

14.0

Hoolihan

ALP

9 281

43.0

Lester

NP

9 285

43.0

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Hoolihan

ALP

9 620

48.5

Lester

NP

10 198

51.5

Exhausted

 

1 778

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

21 596

98.2

Informal

 

404

1.8

Turnout

 

22 000

93.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kurwongbah

 

 

Enrolled 29 147

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Pantano

GRN

1 762

6.6

Harrison

AD

1 460

5.4

Lavarch

ALP

16 889

62.9

Purtill

CCA

963

3.6

Martin

LP

5 757

21.5

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Lavarch

ALP

17 987

72.7

Martin

LP

6 755

27.3

Exhausted

 

2 089

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

26 831

97.6

Informal

 

663

2.4

Turnout

 

27 494

94.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lockyer

 

 

Enrolled 25 189

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Micallef

IND

325

1.4

Clarke

ALP

6 428

27.5

Christensen

NP

3 947

16.9

Nemeth

GRN

665

2.8

Prenzler

CCA

4 197

18.0

Murray

IND

1 170

5.0

Flynn

ONP

6 608

28.3

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Clarke

ALP

7 533

42.7

Flynn

ONP

10 108

57.3

Exhausted

 

5 699

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

23 340

98.2

Informal

 

434

1.8

Turnout

 

23 774

94.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Logan

 

 

Enrolled 24 752

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Drescher

NP

6 001

27.7

Mickel

ALP

15 645

72.3

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

21 646

94.4

Informal

 

1 275

5.6

Turnout

 

22 921

92.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lytton

 

 

Enrolled 26 483

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Lucas

ALP

16 305

66.9

Smith

GRN

2 736

11.2

Ladner

LP

5 329

21.9

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Lucas

ALP

17 150

74.4

Ladner

LP

5 902

25.6

Exhausted

 

1 318

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

24 370

97.2

Informal

 

697

2.8

Turnout

 

25 067

94.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mackay

 

 

Enrolled 27 063

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Townsend

CCA

2 433

10.0

Bella

NP

7 594

31.3

Mulherin

ALP

14 235

58.7

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Bella

NP

8 323

36.5

Mulherin

ALP

14 494

63.5

Exhausted

 

1 445

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

24 262

97.7

Informal

 

580

2.3

Turnout

 

24 842

91.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mansfield

 

 

Enrolled 27 018

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Leworthy

IND

2 960

11.9

Carroll

LP

8 646

34.7

Reeves

ALP

13 296

53.4

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Carroll

LP

9 746

41.4

Reeves

ALP

13 806

58.6

Exhausted

 

1 350

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

24 902

98.2

Informal

 

463

1.8

Turnout

 

25 365

93.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Maroochydore

 

 

Enrolled 26 914

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Baillie

ALP

9 762

41.1

Simpson

NP

9 446

39.8

Wellard

ONP

4 530

19.1

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Baillie

ALP

10 318

49.2

Simpson

NP

10 650

50.8

Exhausted

 

2 770

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

23 738

98.0

Informal

 

492

2.0

Turnout

 

24 230

90.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Maryborough

 

 

Enrolled 25 833

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Smith

IND

545

2.3

Douglas

CCA

1 844

7.7

Holmes

ALP

10 081

42.0

Kingston

IND

8 034

33.5

Harris

NP

3 492

14.6

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Holmes

ALP

10 466

49.5

Kingston

IND

10 678

50.5

Exhausted

 

2 852

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

23 996

97.6

Informal

 

582

2.4

Turnout

 

24 578

95.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mirani

 

 

Enrolled 23 623

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Staker

ALP

7 296

33.2

Gomersall

IND

1 546

7.0

Vaughan

IND

729

3.3

Malone

NP

7 672

34.9

Robinson

ONP

4 729

21.5

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Staker

ALP

8 042

46.2

Malone

NP

9 366

53.8

Exhausted

 

4 564

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

21 972

98.6

Informal

 

303

1.4

Turnout

 

22 275

94.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Moggill

 

 

Enrolled 26 733

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Searle

IND

2 263

9.3

Watson

LP

9 872

40.4

Lumsden

ALP

9 408

38.5

Yesberg

AD

1 355

5.5

Taylor

GRN

1 566

6.4

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Watson

LP

11 404

50.9

Lumsden

ALP

11 008

49.1

Exhausted

 

2 052

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

24 464

98.5

Informal

 

373

1.5

Turnout

 

24 837

92.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mount Coot-tha

 

 

Enrolled 26 343

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Zaborszzky

AD

985

4.3

Boccabella

IND

1 424

6.2

Edmund

ALP

11 741

51.0

Copeman

GRN

2 740

11.9

Cannon

LP

6 135

26.6

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Edmund

ALP

13 888

66.1

Cannon

LP

7 116

33.9

Exhausted

 

2 021

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

23 025

98.5

Informal

 

348

1.5

Turnout

 

23 373

88.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mount Gravatt

 

 

Enrolled 26 271

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Spence

ALP

13 187

54.6

Eggmolesse

IND

235

1.0

Huang

LP

6 509

27.0

McMahon

ONP

2 248

9.3

Tanti

IND

831

3.4

Lloyd

GRN

1 141

4.7

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Spence

ALP

14 220

64.2

Huang

LP

7 940

35.8

Exhausted

 

1 991

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

24 151

98.0

Informal

 

490

2.0

Turnout

 

24 641

93.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mount Isa

 

 

Enrolled 17 811

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

McGrady

ALP

8 981

57.6

Braden

ONP

3 384

21.7

Clarke

NP

3 220

20.7

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

McGrady

ALP

9 593

66.2

Clarke

NP

4 892

33.8

Exhausted

 

1 100

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

15 585

98.6

Informal

 

216

1.4

Turnout

 

15 801

88.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mount Ommaney

 

 

Enrolled 26 213

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Bertoni

IND

5 657

23.6

Bach

GRN

1 141

4.8

Attwood

ALP

12 483

52.0

Harper

LP

4 731

19.7

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Attwood

ALP

13 273

58.7

Harper

LP

9 323

41.3

Exhausted

 

1 416

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

24 012

98.7

Informal

 

322

1.3

Turnout

 

24 334

92.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mudgeeraba

 

 

Enrolled 25 732

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Keys

IND

3 596

15.9

Light

GRN

2 025

8.9

Connor

LP

6 952

30.6

Bradley

IND

330

1.5

Lyons

IND

408

1.8

Reilly

ALP

9 371

41.3

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Connor

LP

8 060

38.6

Reilly

ALP

10 585

61.4

Exhausted

 

4 037

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

22 682

96.8

Informal

 

750

3.2

Turnout

 

23 432

91.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mulgrave

 

 

Enrolled 24 503

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Moyle

NP

4 443

20.0

Pitt

ALP

11 903

53.6

Frisone

ONP

5 847

26.3

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Pitt

ALP

12 512

61.3

Frisone

ONP

7 903

38.7

Exhausted

 

1 778

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

22 193

98.3

Informal

 

383

1.7

Turnout

 

22 576

92.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mundingburra

 

 

Enrolled 26 566

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Moore

LP

6 780

28.5

Nelson-Carr

ALP

11 640

48.9

Elson

ONP

4 056

17.0

Staines

CCA

439

1.8

Smith

GRN

904

3.8

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Moore

LP

7 928

38.6

Nelson-Carr

ALP

12 598

61.4

Exhausted

 

3 293

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

23 819

98.0

Informal

 

484

2.0

Turnout

 

24 303

91.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Murrumba

 

 

Enrolled 25 882

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

McJannett

IND

4 408

18.6

Haskell

LP

4 498

18.9

Wells

ALP

14 839

62.5

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Haskell

LP

6 295

28.9

Wells

ALP

15 500

71.1

Exhausted

 

1 950

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

23 745

97.4

Informal

 

635

2.6

Turnout

 

24 380

94.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nanango

 

 

Enrolled 22 710

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Campbell

NP

5 400

25.8

Weir

ALP

5 882

28.1

Pratt

IND

9 680

46.2

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Weir

ALP

6 282

32.9

Pratt

IND

12 796

67.1

Exhausted

 

1 884

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

20 962

97.9

Informal

 

451

2.1

Turnout

 

21 413

94.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nicklin

 

 

Enrolled 27 249

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Fitzgerald

GRN

932

3.7

Booth

ONP

3 992

16.0

Boman

ALP

4 224

16.9

Wellington

IND

11 554

46.3

Gardiner

NP

1 941

7.8

Whittington

LP

2 305

9.2

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Booth

ONP

5 469

26.6

Wellington

IND

15 114

73.4

Exhausted

 

4 365

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

24 948

98.8

Informal

 

304

1.2

Turnout

 

25 252

92.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Noosa

 

 

Enrolled 28 739

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Davidson

LP

10 391

40.3

Lake

ONP

4 543

17.6

Molloy

ALP

10 828

42.0

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Davidson

LP

11 552

49.1

Molloy

ALP

11 977

50.9

Exhausted

 

2 233

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

25 762

98.1

Informal

 

486

1.9

Turnout

 

26 248

91.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nudgee

 

 

Enrolled 26 860

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Taylor

LP

6 042

24.9

Roberts

ALP

18 252

75.1

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

24 294

96.5

Informal

 

882

3.5

Turnout

 

25 176

93.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pumicestone

 

 

Enrolled 26 648

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Feldman

CCA

3 805

15.5

Sullivan

ALP

11 360

46.3

Rounsefell

IND

453

1.8

Whitney

ONP

3 953

16.1

Shotton

GRN

610

2.5

Parsons

LP

4 380

17.8

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Sullivan

ALP

12 686

66.1

Parsons

LP

6 505

33.9

Exhausted

 

5 370

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

24 561

98.2

Informal

 

439

1.8

Turnout

 

25 000

93.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Redcliffe

 

 

Enrolled 27 292

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Salisbury

CCA

866

3.5

Frawley

IND

3 232

13.1

Rankin

LP

5 789

23.4

Hollis

ALP

13 989

56.6

Matthews

IND

255

1.0

White

IND

604

2.4

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Rankin

LP

7 011

32.4

Hollis

ALP

14 633

67.6

Exhausted

 

3 091

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

24 735

97.6

Informal

 

606

2.4

Turnout

 

25 341

92.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Redlands

 

 

Enrolled 24 229

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

English

ALP

10 797

48.6

Burns

IND

3 210

14.4

Hegarty

NP

6 500

29.2

Hancock

CCA

1 731

7.8

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

English

ALP

11 494

56.9

Hegarty

NP

8 721

43.1

Exhausted

 

2 023

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

22 238

97.3

Informal

 

611

2.7

Turnout

 

22 849

94.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Robina

 

 

Enrolled 27 655

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Simmonds

ALP

10 909

46.0

Quinn

LP

12 822

54.0

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

23 731

95.3

Informal

 

1 171

4.7

Turnout

 

24 902

90.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rockhampton

 

 

Enrolled 25 306

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Schuback

CCA

2 056

8.9

Bahnisch

NP

5 053

21.9

Schwarten

ALP

15 926

69.1

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Bahnisch

NP

5 626

25.8

Schwarten

ALP

16 166

74.2

Exhausted

 

1 243

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

23 035

97.5

Informal

 

592

2.5

Turnout

 

23 627

93.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sandgate

 

 

Enrolled 26 426

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Nuttall

ALP

16 242

66.8

Young

LP

4 890

20.1

Eaton

IND

3 179

13.1

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Nuttall

ALP

16 774

74.5

Young

LP

5 750

25.5

Exhausted

 

1 787

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

24 311

97.7

Informal

 

565

2.3

Turnout

 

24 876

94.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

South Brisbane

 

 

Enrolled 27 729

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Chappel

LP

4 720

19.7

Swan

IND

777

3.2

Bligh

ALP

14 329

59.9

Baker

IND

310

1.3

Freemarijuana

IND

653

2.7

Taylor

GRN

2 150

9.0

Lagos

AD

985

4.1

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Chappel

LP

5 479

25.0

Bligh

ALP

16 377

75.0

Exhausted

 

2 068

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

23 924

97.4

Informal

 

638

2.6

Turnout

 

24 562

88.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Southern Downs

 

 

Enrolled 27 551

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

White

IND

5 818

22.9

Rey

ALP

6 459

25.5

Springborg

NP

13 092

51.6

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Rey

ALP

7 278

33.2

Springborg

NP

14 627

66.8

Exhausted

 

3 464

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

25 369

98.3

Informal

 

451

1.7

Turnout

 

25 820

93.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Southport

 

 

Enrolled 25 127

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Lawlor

ALP

11 245

50.9

Millar

ONP

3 351

15.2

Veivers

NP

6 434

29.1

Cortenbach

IND

1 083

4.9

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Lawlor

ALP

11 986

60.8

Veivers

NP

7 714

39.2

Exhausted

 

2 413

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

22 113

97.6

Informal

 

551

2.4

Turnout

 

22 664

90.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Springwood

 

 

Enrolled 27 138

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Johnston

IND

5 140

20.9

Stone

ALP

11 192

45.6

Ward

LP

3 590

14.6

Power

NP

4 613

18.8

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Stone

ALP

12 442

60.4

Power

NP

8 169

39.6

Exhausted

 

3 924

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

24 535

97.5

Informal

 

624

2.5

Turnout

 

25 159

92.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stafford

 

 

Enrolled 27 169

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Belcher

LP

5 982

24.2

Sullivan

ALP

16 190

65.4

Meehan

GRN

2 590

10.5

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Belcher

LP

6 503

27.6

Sullivan

ALP

17 052

72.4

Exhausted

 

1 207

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

24 762

97.7

Informal

 

591

2.3

Turnout

 

25 353

93.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stretton

 

 

Enrolled 26 604

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Robertson

ALP

14 778

62.7

Lin

LP

8 805

37.3

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

23 583

96.3

Informal

 

894

3.7

Turnout

 

24 477

92.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Surfers Paradise

 

 

Enrolled 28 321

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Hepburn

GRN

2 899

12.0

Alcorn

ALP

9 259

38.3

Borbidge

NP

12 033

49.7

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Alcorn

ALP

10 147

44.7

Borbidge

NP

12 546

55.3

Exhausted

 

1 498

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

24 191

96.9

Informal

 

784

3.1

Turnout

 

24 975

88.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tablelands

 

 

Enrolled 23 448

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Nelson

IND

3 284

15.3

Moro

NP

3 522

16.4

Condon

IND

1 098

5.1

Lee Long

ONP

7 722

36.0

Isherwood

IND

507

2.4

Yates

ALP

5 325

24.8

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Lee Long

ONP

10 994

63.8

Yates

ALP

6 235

36.2

Exhausted

 

4 229

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

21 458

98.6

Informal

 

313

1.4

Turnout

 

21 771

92.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thuringowa

 

 

Enrolled 26 763

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Nelson

LP

2 447

10.1

Weekes

NP

4 532

18.7

Morton

CCA

762

3.1

Turner

IND

6 258

25.8

Linder

IND

311

1.3

Phillips

ALP

9 952

41.0

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Phillips

ALP

11 052

53.6

Turner

IND

9 581

46.4

Exhausted

 

3 629

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

24 262

97.5

Informal

 

633

2.5

Turnout

 

24 895

93.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Toowoomba North

 

 

Enrolled 24 335

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Shine

ALP

9 772

44.1

Berry

IND

1 215

5.5

Francis

CCA

1 529

6.9

Healy

NP

8 795

39.7

Mogg

IND

846

3.8

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Shine

ALP

10 503

51.9

Healy

NP

9 747

48.1

Exhausted

 

1 907

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

22 157

97.7

Informal

 

527

2.3

Turnout

 

22 684

93.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Toowoomba South

 

 

Enrolled 25 152

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Shooter

ALP

7 439

32.5

Hoy

ONP

4 577

20.0

Horan

NP

10 028

43.8

Wilson

IND

857

3.7

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Shooter

ALP

8 216

42.1

Horan

NP

11 319

57.9

Exhausted

 

3 366

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

22 901

98.4

Informal

 

374

1.6

Turnout

 

23 275

92.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Townsville

 

 

Enrolled 25 513

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Reynolds

ALP

11 494

52.0

Tubman

IND

1 833

8.3

Tait

IND

942

4.3

Barker

LP

7 848

35.5

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Reynolds

ALP

12 319

59.3

Barker

LP

8 443

40.7

Exhausted

 

1 355

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

22 117

96.8

Informal

 

725

3.2

Turnout

 

22 842

89.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Warrego

 

 

Enrolled 21 600

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Hobbs

NP

6 737

33.8

Burton

ONP

4 733

23.8

Gleeson

IND

5 193

26.1

Chisholm

ALP

3 243

16.3

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Hobbs

NP

7 943

50.3

Gleeson

IND

7 847

49.7

Exhausted

 

4 116

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

19 906

98.8

Informal

 

239

1.2

Turnout

 

20 145

93.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Waterford

 

 

Enrolled 24 793

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Somers

LP

3 267

14.8

Howse

IND

910

4.1

Barton

ALP

12 378

56.2

Woodward

ONP

5 465

24.8

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Barton

ALP

13 755

68.0

Woodward

ONP

6 470

32.0

Exhausted

 

1 795

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

22 020

97.2

Informal

 

625

2.8

Turnout

 

22 645

91.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Whitsunday

 

 

Enrolled 24 015

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Smyth

IND

799

3.7

Haselgrove

ONP

2 677

12.4

Black

CCA

2 919

13.5

Perkins

NP

5 237

24.2

Jarratt

ALP

10 026

46.3

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Perkins

NP

7 294

40.4

Jarratt

ALP

10 751

59.6

Exhausted

 

3 613

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

21 658

98.5

Informal

 

334

1.5

Turnout

 

21 992

91.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Woodridge

 

 

Enrolled 23 605

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Scott

ALP

11 992

57.3

Moore

IND

1 057

5.1

Grant

IND

2 273

10.9

Simon

LP

1 272

6.1

Ngahooro

ONP

4 336

20.7

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Scott

ALP

13 138

71.1

Ngahooro

ONP

5 346

28.9

Exhausted

 

2 446

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

20 930

97.3

Informal

 

579

2.7

Turnout

 

21 509

91.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yeerongpilly

 

 

Enrolled 27 130

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

Burchall

GRN

1 877

7.7

Miles

LP

5 215

21.3

Wheeley

IND

731

3.0

Foley

ALP

15 135

61.8

Bond

IND

1 516

6.2

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

Miles

LP

6 249

27.8

Foley

ALP

16 210

72.2

Exhausted

 

2 015

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

24 474

97.8

Informal

 

545

2.2

Turnout

 

25 019

92.2

 

Table 4 Legislative Assembly: Two Candidate Preferred Vote

District

ALP

LP/NP

ONP

Others

Exhausted (a)

No

%

No

%

No

%

No

%

No

%

Albert

13 207

62.6

7 875

37.4

1 724

7.6

Algester

16 140

72.6

6 082

27.4

1 324

5.6

Ashgrove

15 068

65.0

8 102

35.0

1 405

5.7

Aspley

13 150

54.7

10 894

45.3

Barron River

10 759

57.3

8 031

42.7

3 321

15.0

Beaudesert

10 042

48.0

10 876

52.0

5 093

19.6

Brisbane Central

15 936

75.0

5 322

25.0

1 752

7.6

Broadwater

12 388

52.4

11 231

47.6

Bulimba

16 295

73.2

5 960

26.8

Bundaberg

15 812

64.9

8 552

35.1

Bundamba

16 043

80.9

3 786

19.1

1 604

7.5

Burdekin

8 863

55.1

7 215

44.9

5 185

24.4

Burleigh

12 062

51.8

11 233

48.2

2 555

9.9

Burnett

11 169

51.7

10 433

48.3

Cairns

12 400

64.8

6 730

35.2

2 550

11.8

Callide

10 265

52.3

9 355

47.7

4 320

18.0

Caloundra

10 234

49.0

10 637

51.0

2 972

12.5

Capalaba

11 650

64.6

6 379

35.4

6 225

25.7

Charters Towers

8 138

52.2

7 460

47.8

Chatsworth

15 555

65.1

8 322

34.9

1 668

6.5

Clayfield

11 593

52.0

10 708

48.0

1 296

5.5

Cleveland

14 300

66.7

7 152

33.3

2 056

8.7

Cook

11 175

72.9

4 162

27.1

1 465

8.7

Cunningham

6 893

41.4

9 769

58.6

Currumbin

14 581

64.5

8 009

35.5

1 875

7.7

Darling Downs

9 226

48.9

9 651

51.1

3 796

16.7

Everton

16 063

67.5

7 749

32.5

1 199

4.8

Ferny Grove

17 488

70.5

7 302

29.5

1 206

4.6

Fitzroy

13 915

67.2

6 797

32.8

953

4.4

Gaven

10 776

57.6

7 933

42.4

2 756

12.8

Gladstone

11 103

46.5

12 772

53.5

474

1.9

Glass House

11 598

59.6

7 869

40.4

5 030

20.5

Greenslopes

14 791

64.1

8 289

35.9

1 709

6.9

Gregory

6 897

40.7

10 047

59.3

Gympie

9 766

46.7

11 130

53.3

4 723

18.4

Hervey Bay

10 559

57.6

7 762

42.4

4 403

19.4

Hinchinbrook

7 192

52.8

6 436

47.2

6 713

33.0

Inala

14 606

71.5

5 836

28.5

757

3.6

Indooroopilly

11 245

52.9

10 022

47.1

2 052

8.8

Ipswich

14 029

66.8

6 985

33.2

3 641

14.8

Ipswich West

11 645

57.3

8 679

42.7

3 131

13.3

Kallangur

14 165

71.4

5 681

28.6

2 978

13.0

Kawana

11 801

52.6

10 625

47.4

2 166

8.8

Keppel

9 620

48.5

10 198

51.5

1 778

8.2

Kurwongbah

17 987

72.7

6 755

27.3

2 089

7.8

Lockyer

7 533

42.7

10 108

57.3

5 699

24.4

Logan

15 645

72.3

6 001

27.7

Lytton

17 150

74.4

5 902

25.6

1 318

5.4

Mackay

14 494

63.5

8 323

36.5

1 445

6.0

Mansfield

13 806

58.6

9 746

41.4

1 350

5.4

Maroochydore

10 318

49.2

10 650

50.8

2 770

11.7

Maryborough

10 466

49.5

10 678

50.5

2 852

11.9

Mirani

8 042

46.2

9 366

53.8

4 564

20.8

Moggill

11 008

49.1

11 404

50.9

2 052

8.4

Mt Coot-tha

13 888

66.1

7 116

33.9

2 021

8.8

Mt Gravatt

14 220

64.2

7 940

35.8

1 991

8.2

Mt Isa

9 593

66.2

4 892

33.8

1 100

7.1

Mt Ommaney

13 273

58.7

9 323

41.3

1 416

5.9

Mudgeeraba

10 585

56.8

8 060

43.2

4 037

17.8

Mulgrave

12 512

61.3

7 903

38.7

1 778

8.0

Mundingburra

12 598

61.4

7 928

38.6

3 293

13.8

Murrumba

15 500

71.1

6 295

28.9

1 950

8.2

Nanango

6 282

32.9

12 796

67.1

1 884

9.0

Nicklin

5 469

26.6

15 114

73.4

4 365

17.5

Noosa

11 977

50.9

11 552

49.1

2 233

8.7

Nudgee

18 252

75.1

6 042

24.9

Pumicestone

12 686

66.1

6 505

33.9

5 370

21.9

Redcliffe

14 633

67.6

7 011

32.4

3 091

12.5

Redlands

11 494

56.9

8 721

43.1

2 023

9.1

Robina

10 909

46.0

12 822

54.0

Rockhampton

16 166

74.2

5 626

25.8

1 243

5.4

Sandgate

16 774

74.5

5 750

25.5

1 787

7.4

South Brisbane

16 377

74.9

5 479

25.1

2 068

8.6

Southern Downs

7 278

33.2

14 627

66.8

3 464

13.7

Southport

11 986

60.8

7 714

39.2

2 413

10.9

Springwood

12 442

60.4

8 169

39.6

3 924

16.0

Stafford

17 052

72.4

6 503

27.6

1 207

4.9

Stretton

14 778

62.7

8 805

37.3

Surfers Paradise

10 147

44.7

12 546

55.3

1 498

6.2

Tablelands

6 235

36.2

10 994

63.8

4 229

19.7

Thuringowa

11 052

53.6

9 581

46.4

3 629

15.0

Toowoomba North

10 503

51.9

9 747

48.1

1 907

8.6

Toowoomba South

8 216

42.1

11 319

57.9

3 366

14.7

Townsville

12 319

59.3

8 443

40.7

1 355

6.1

Warrego

7 943

50.3

7 847

49.7

4 116

20.7

Waterford

13 755

68.0

6 470

32.0

1 795

8.2

Whitsunday

10 751

59.6

7 294

40.4

3 613

16.7

Woodridge

13 138

71.1

5 346

28.9

2 446

11.7

Yeerongpilly

16 210

72.2

6 249

27.8

2 015

8.2

(a) Exhausted votes as a percentage of formal votes.

 

Table 5 Legislative Assembly: Electoral Pendulum (a)

District

%

District

%

District

%

ALP Districts

ALP Districts

LP/NP Districts

Bundamba

30.9

Currumbin

14.5

Southern Downs

16.8

Nudgee

25.1

Mt Gravatt

14.2

Gregory

9.3

Brisbane Central

25.0

Greenslopes

14.1

Cunningham

8.6

South Brisbane

24.9

Mackay

13.5

Toowoomba South

7.9

Sandgate

24.5

Stretton

12.7

Surfers Paradise

5.3

Lytton

24.4

Albert

12.6

Robina (LP)

4.0

Rockhampton

24.2

Mundingburra

11.4

Mirani

3.8

Bulimba

23.2

Mulgrave

11.3

Hinchinbrook

2.8

Cook

22.9

Southport

10.8

Callide

2.3

Kurwongbah

22.7

Springwood

10.4

Beaudesert

2.0

Algester

22.6

Whitsunday

9.6

Keppel

1.5

Stafford

22.4

Glass House

9.6

Caloundra (LP)

1.0

Logan

22.3

Townsville

9.3

Moggill (LP)

0.9

Yeerongpilly

22.2

Mt Ommaney

8.7

Maroochydore

0.8

Inala

21.5

Mansfield

8.6

Warrego

0.3

Kallangur

21.4

Hervey Bay

7.6

Murrumba

21.1

Gaven

7.6

Woodridge

21.1

Ipswich West

7.3

ONP/IND Districts

Ferny Grove

20.5

Barron River

7.3

Nicklin (IND)

23.4

Waterford

18.0

Redlands

6.9

Nanango (IND)

17.1

Redcliffe

17.6

Mudgeeraba

6.8

Tablelands (ONP)

13.8

Everton

17.5

Burdekin

5.1

Lockyer (ONP)

7.3

Fitzroy

17.2

Aspley

4.7

Gladstone (IND)

3.5

Ipswich

16.8

Thuringowa

3.6

Gympie (ONP)

3.3

Cleveland

16.7

Indooroopilly

2.9

Darling Downs (IND)

1.1

Mt Isa

16.2

Kawana

2.6

Maryborough (IND)

0.5

Mt Coot-tha

16.1

Broadwater

2.4

Pumicestone

16.1

Charters Towers

2.2

Chatsworth

15.1

Clayfield

2.0

Ashgrove

15.0

Toowoomba North

1.9

Bundaberg

14.9

Burleigh

1.8

Cairns

14.8

Burnett

1.7

Capalaba

14.6

Noosa

0.9

(a) Based on Two Candidate Preferred swing to lose.

 

Table 6 Legislative Assembly By-elections 1998-2000

Mulgrave (5.12.98)

 

 

 

Enrolled 26 253

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

Swing

 

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

 

Boniface

ONP

3 470

15.6

-15.4

Wilson

NP

8 550

38.3

+8.4

Mathison

IND

266

1.2

+1.2

Metcalfe

GRN

573

2.6

+2.6

Pitt

ALP

9 446

42.3

+5.3

 

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

 

Wilson

NP

10 097

49.4

 

Pitt

ALP

10 358

50.6

 

Exhausted

 

1 776

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

22 305

99.0

 

Informal

 

228

1.0

 

Turnout

 

22 533

85.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bundamba (5.2.00)

 

 

 

Enrolled 23 828

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

Swing

 

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

 

Curley

GRN

1 134

5.8

+2.9

Miller

ALP

11 217

57.2

+9.0

Hughes

IND

870

4.4

+4.4

Poole

IND

177

0.9

+0.9

Hill

CCA

2 723

13.9

+13.9

Heck

IND

564

2.9

+2.9

Cole

LP

2 909

14.8

+2.9

 

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

 

Miller

ALP

12 383

71.1

 

Cole

LP

5 041

28.9

 

Exhausted

 

2 170

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

19 594

97.0

 

Informal

 

597

3.0

 

Turnout

 

20 191

84.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Woodridge (5.2.00)

 

 

 

Enrolled 18 083

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

Swing

 

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

 

Lutton

IND

5 012

33.3

+33.3

Kaiser

ALP

7 635

50.8

-0.9

Allan

LP

1 340

8.9

-5.1

Hernandez

AD

337

2.2

-3.8

Freemarijuana

IND

386

2.6

+2.6

McKenna

IND

47

0.3

+0.3

Wilkins

CCA

275

1.8

+1.8

 

 

 

 

 

Two Candidate Preferred

 

 

 

 

Kaiser

ALP

7 955

56.5

 

Lutton

IND

6 128

43.5

 

Exhausted

 

949

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Formal

 

15 032

97.6

 

Informal

 

376

2.4

 

Turnout

 

15 408

85.2

 

 

Table 7 Legislative Assembly Elections 1950-2001

Election

ALP

LP

NP

AD

DLP

GRN

ONP

OTH

Total

ALP

LP/NP

First Preference Votes

Two Party Votes

1950

46.9

29.9

19.2

4.0

100.0

48.5

51.5

1953

53.2

21.3

18.7

6.7

100.0

54.2

45.8

1956

51.2

25.1

19.3

4.4

100.0

51.6

48.4

1957

28.9

23.2

20.0

23.4

4.5

100.0

n.a.

n.a.

1960

39.9

24.0

19.5

12.3

4.3

100.0

44.0

56.0

1963

43.8

23.8

20.3

7.2

4.9

100.0

46.4

53.6

1966

43.8

25.5

19.3

6.3

5.1

100.0

47.2

52.8

1969

45.0

23.7

21.2

7.2

3.0

100.0

47.7

52.3

1972

46.8

22.2

20.0

7.7

3.3

100.0

49.2

50.8

1974

36.0

31.1

27.9

1.9

3.1

100.0

38.5

61.5

1977

42.8

25.2

27.1

1.6

3.2

100.0

45.4

54.6

1980

41.5

26.9

27.9

1.4

2.3

100.0

45.3

54.7

1983

44.0

14.9

38.9

0.8

1.4

100.0

46.7

53.3

1986

41.3

16.5

39.6

0.6

1.9

100.0

45.9

54.1

1989

50.3

21.1

24.1

0.4

0.3

3.8

100.0

54.3

45.7

1992

48.7

20.4

23.7

0.3

6.8

100.0

53.8

46.2

1995

42.9

22.7

26.3

1.3

2.9

4.0

100.0

46.7

53.3

1998

38.9

16.1

15.2

1.6

2.4

22.7

3.2

100.0

n.a.

n.a.

2001

48.9

14.3

14.2

0.3

2.5

8.7

11.0

100.0

n.a.

n.a.

Seats Won

1950

42

11

20

2

75

1953

50

8

15

2

75

1956

49

8

16

2

75

1957

20

18

24

11

2

75

1960

25

20

26

4

3

78

1963

26

20

26

1

5

78

1966

26

20

27

1

4

78

1969

31

19

26

1

1

78

1972

33

21

26

2

82

1974

11

30

39

2

82

1977

23

24

35

82

1980

25

22

35

82

1983

32

8

41

1

82

1986

30

10

49

89

1989

54

9

26

89

1992

54

9

26

89

1995

45

14

29

1

89

1998

44

9

23

11

2

89

2001

66

3

12

3

5

89

 


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