6.1
This chapter discusses the committee's views regarding the evidence received to date in relation to this inquiry. The committee acknowledges that the terms of reference for the inquiry are broad ranging, and touch on significant and complex issues facing the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS).
6.2
The timing of this inquiry, in the closing months of the 46th Parliament, has not allowed the committee time to consider these significant issues in depth. The committee has already recommended that the inquiry be re-initiated by a re‑established committee in the 47th Parliament.
6.3
In the meantime, the committee makes some broader recommendations in relation to areas of the scheme that it considers should be the subject of independent research. The committee also sets out its views on processes for commissioning and disseminating this research.
6.4
Finally, the committee notes the paramount importance of rebuilding trust between the disability community and the National Disability Insurance Agency (NDIA). The committee suggests that the functions of the NDIA and its board of managing financial sustainability for the scheme also rely on trust from participants within the scheme and providing clear and well-rounded information about the benefits, including economic benefits of the NDIS, as well as current and anticipated monetary costs.
The committee's work leading to this inquiry
6.5
The committee commenced this inquiry following its inquiry into independent assessments. During that inquiry, the NDIA and the Minister for the NDIS raised concerns about the financial sustainability of the scheme, pointing to the financial modelling produced by the Scheme Actuary. This modelling is required by the Act but was at that time only available to the public in summary form. Following pressure from a range of sources, including this committee, the government agreed to publish the next Annual Financial Sustainability Report (AFSR), and all future reports, in full, to assist broader understanding of the basis for the government's concerns about projected costs for the scheme.
6.6
During the independent assessments inquiry, the NDIA assured the committee that the intention of introducing independent assessments was not to reduce scheme costs. At the same time, current and former Ministers for the NDIS argued that independent assessments were essential to ensure the financial sustainability of the scheme. The committee heard from participants and their families, carers and representatives who were sceptical of these arguments. These submitters and witnesses told the committee of their distress following the announcement of the policy, which had not been co-designed with the people who would be affected, and which the disability community and practitioners told the community lacked a sufficient evidence base. The failures in that policy process were seen to undermine trust in the process and overall proposals.
6.7
In the current inquiry, the committee heard that distrust in the Agency and its processes was still high. Similar to the lessons learned through the independent assessments proposal, submitters and witnesses emphasised that a significant evidence base is needed to ensure appropriate understanding of the current issues facing the scheme, and from which to develop, through co‑design, appropriate solutions. In addition, the committee heard that, while efforts have been made to begin to rebuild trust between the disability community and the NDIA, a range of approaches are needed. These will be discussed, in turn, below.
Financial modelling and forecasting
6.8
Following the release of the NDIS AFSR 2020-21 in October 2021, and the commissioning of additional work through the Disability Reform Ministers' Meetings to further understand the modelling and cost drivers underpinning the scheme, the committee was especially interested to understand more about the modelling underpinning forecasts about the scheme.
6.9
In the time since the committee's interim report, the committee and the wider disability sector have had the opportunity to review the report resulting from the work commissioned by the Disability Ministers, prepared by actuarial firm Taylor Fry, which is discussed in Chapter 2.
6.10
As noted in its report into independent assessments, the committee welcomes the publication of the full AFSR for 2020-21 and the commitment to publish these reports going forward. The committee also welcomes the more recent Taylor Fry report. The information now available in these documents is a significant step forward for transparency for the scheme, providing the most comprehensive insight into the actuarial model underpinning the scheme to date.
6.11
The committee is nevertheless persuaded by the evidence received that indicates these reports raise nearly as many questions as they answer. For example, the modelling sets out that the scheme has experienced higher numbers of participants than anticipated and calculates forward projections based on these experiences. The AFSR and analysis in the Taylor Fry report explain that higher numbers in the scheme are concentrated in the ages 0-14 and note that participants in this age group are entering the scheme at higher rates than anticipated and exiting the scheme at lower rates than anticipated. However, neither the AFSR, nor the Taylor Fry report explore why children might be entering and staying in the scheme at these higher rates.
6.12
Likewise, the committee received significant evidence which set out concerns about access to mainstream services for participants and people with a disability outside the NDIS, and issues arising at the interfaces of the NDIS with other service systems. Witnesses also suggested that tensions in the division of responsibilities for supports across mainstream services and the NDIS may be placing pressure on the scheme, and may influence the behaviour of the NDIA, providers and participants. However, evidence to the inquiry also made clear that there is a need to better understand the extent and detail of these impacts in order to develop appropriate policy responses to ensure the scheme continues to improve the lives of Australians with a disability.
6.13
The committee accepts that significant research in a number of areas is needed to understand the drivers behind the ways in which the current trajectory of the scheme differs to the original proposals for the scheme, and to earlier projections. Following from matters raised in the inquiry, the committee urges the NDIA and the Australian Government to commission independent research into the following areas:
adequate support for people with disability outside the NDIS
best practice early intervention
effective market stewardship; and
interface with mainstream services.
6.14
The committee recommends that the Australian Government, through the National Disability Insurance Agency or another appropriate body, commission independent research into:
the extent and adequacy of support for people with disability outside the National Disability Insurance Scheme
best practice early intervention, including supports for children not eligible for the scheme
effective market stewardship; and
interfaces with mainstream services.
6.15
The committee also considers that further independent research should be commissioned through the Disability Reform Ministers Meetings to build on the Taylor Fry report. In particular, the committee considers further research is needed to understand:
the reasons behind the growth in participant numbers (including the drivers influencing increasing numbers of children entering and staying in the scheme)
the underlying causes of projected increases of the cost of plans, especially the causes of 'superimposed inflation'
the impact, (including behavioural impacts), of approaches to the management of the NDIA, such as operational processes and models, and administrative resourcing; and
whether capacity building supports for participants are beginning to deliver benefits, and if not, why not.
6.16
The committee recommends that, as part of its ongoing work to understand National Disability Insurance Scheme costs, Disability Ministers, through the Disability Reform Ministers' Meetings, commission independent research in the following areas:
the drivers underpinning growth in participant numbers
the underlying causes of projected increases of the cost of plans
the impact of National Disability Insurance Agency management approaches; and
the effectiveness of current capacity building supports.
6.17
As suggested in the public hearings held in February and March 2022, the committee also agrees that all commissioned research should be published in full, and that accessible translations or easy-read versions of the documents are likewise developed independently of the NDIA and made available in an easily accessible manner (for example, in prominent locations on the NDIA or other government websites).
6.18
The committee recommends that all commissioned independent research into the National Disability Insurance Scheme should, to the greatest extent possible, be published in full.
6.19
The committee recommends that the National Disability Insurance Agency or other relevant government body commission independent accessible translations or easy-read versions of all published independent research into the National Disability Insurance Scheme.
6.20
While the committee understands that the NDIA has processes in place for data sharing with independent researchers, it heard that transparency around the sharing of data with independent researchers could be greatly improved.
6.21
The committee stresses the importance of continuing to promote transparency in the scheme, including by providing independent researchers greater access to the NDIS datasets. The committee agrees that the datasets provided to Taylor Fry to complete their actuarial analysis of the AFSR should, with the appropriate privacy controls, be provided to researchers undertaking the above commissioned research. The committee was unable to determine through the course of this inquiry whether the current data sharing protocols for the agency would facilitate sharing in this way and intends to review this matter further in future inquiries.
Trust
6.22
The erosion of trust between the disability community, including NDIS participants, and the NDIA was a key concern arising from the attempts to introduce independent assessments. The committee recognises the efforts to rebuild trust that have been made by both the disability community and the NDIA coming out of that experience, including the work to co-design a new, person-centred, assessment approach to improve access and planning decisions.
6.23
Ensuring trust between participants and the NDIA and ensuring sustainability of the scheme are tightly linked. As noted in Chapter 4, managing the financial sustainability of the scheme requires ensuring that participants feel well supported by the scheme and that the broader community continue to perceive the scheme as providing appropriate benefits in line with its costs.
6.24
The NDIS must continue to be person-centred and prioritise the needs of participants, including ensuring that the scheme is managed in a way that ensures continued support for people with disability into the future. It was, however, explained to the committee that a continued emphasis on the financial cost of supporting participants risks framing both the expenditure and participants themselves only as a burden to taxpayers. As an alternative, the committee was urged to instead view expenditure in the NDIS as an investment towards providing people with disability with the support they need to fully participate in and contribute to the Australian community. Balancing discussions of costs of the scheme with an emphasis on benefits also ensures that the broader community perceptions of the scheme are well informed. The committee is therefore of the view that efforts to manage the financial sustainability of the NDIS should emphasise the benefits of the scheme for participants and the wider community and demonstrate the value of investing in people with disability through the scheme.
6.25
The committee recognises the efforts made by the NDIA to measure and report on participant outcomes and share individual stories of success through its public reporting. However, a better balance must be reached in the NDIA and Australian Government's discussions about the sustainability of the scheme to recognise and highlight the significant benefits, including economic benefits, that flow from the scheme.
6.26
The committee considers that, as part of this, the NDIA should commission research to ensure that the Agency is capturing the right data to measure and track successes of the scheme, and to build information about economic benefits and offsetting of costs in other areas of government expenditure into future cost projections.
6.27
The committee also encourages the Australian Government and Disability Ministers to commission further independent research into the economic benefits of the scheme, providing researchers with NDIA data to fully test different assumptions. While noting that the NDIS also provides significant benefits to the Australian community that may not be easily quantified as economic benefits, the committee considers that this research will be valuable to build a better understanding of the economic impacts of the NDIS beyond its costs.
6.28
The committee recommends that the National Disability Insurance Agency, with the Scheme Actuary and Board, review methods and approaches to managing the financial sustainability of the scheme to ensure appropriate emphasis is placed on measuring the benefits of the scheme and promoting these benefits to the broader Australian community.
6.29
The committee recommends that the Australian Government and Disability Ministers commission independent research into the broader contribution of the National Disability Insurance Scheme to the Australian economy, including research into measuring the economic benefits of the scheme.
6.30
Finally, the committee wishes to recognise the magnitude of work undertaken by participants, their families, carers and representatives over the years since the scheme commenced to provide their views and concerns about the NDIS to the committee, as well as participating in other consultation process, including with the NDIA, the Department of Social Services, and the Disability Royal Commission. The reports, submissions, transcripts, testimonies and other material provided through these processes is a significant resource for future policy-makers, and the committee encourages the NDIA and the Australian Government to draw on this resource when developing future policies and operational responses for the scheme.
Hon Kevin Andrews MPSenator Carol Brown
ChairDeputy Chair