Research Paper 22 1998-99

New South Wales Election 1999

Scott Bennett
Politics and Public Administration Group

Gerard Newman
Statistics Group
8 June 1999

Contents

Symbols and Abbreviations
Introduction
New South Wales goes to the polls
Background to the election: leadership
The campaign battle
Legislative Assembly
Legislative Council
Percentages for parties winning Legislative Council seats
The verdict
Endnotes
Table 1: Legislative Assembly, State Summary
Table2a: Legislative Assembly, District Summary
Table2b: Legislative Assembly, District Summary
Table 3: Legislative Assembly, District Summary
Table 4: Electoral Pendulum
Table 5 Legislative Assembly: District Summary
Table 6: Legislative Council, State Summary
Table 7: Legislative Council, Composition by Year of Election
Table 8: Legislative Assembly By-elections 1995-1999
Table 9: Legislative Assembly Elections 1950-1999

Symbols and Abbreviations

Introduction

The 1999 New South Wales election saw the Labor Government of Bob Carr increase its small majority in the Legislative Assembly to one that should enable it to govern comfortably over the next four years. Although the Government does not control the upper house, the Legislative Council election has produced a house that will probably be more amenable to Labor legislation than its predecessor. On the Coalition side, the Liberal Party has been seriously weakened and it may take some time before new leader, Kerry Chikarovski, is in a position to challenge the Government electorally. Although the National Party vote declined, the party still holds the lion's share of rural seats.

This paper provides a brief outline of the election campaign, discusses the results, notes the seats of significance, and speculates about the position of the parties in the immediate future.

New South Wales goes to the polls

The 1999 New South Wales election was held on 27 March, the date at which the fixed four-year term of the parliament ended. The Legislative Assembly had been reduced from 99 to 93 seats, the second reduction since the election of 1988. Fifteen electorates had been abolished:

Nine new electorates were created (notional sitting party given):(1)

The electorate of Murwillumbah had been renamed Tweed (NP).

Also on 27 March voters elected 21 Members of the 42-member Legislative Council for a term of eight years.

Background to the election: leadership

In his seminal work on Australian voting behaviour, Don Aitkin asserted that, 'There can be no doubt that the electorate prizes unity in its parties', and went on to note that the electorate 'is alert to any signs of party or cabinet disunity'.(2) Despite this, there have been a number of occasions when State parties have moved, on the eve of a State election, to remove a leader deemed to be leading the party to electoral defeat. The Liberals' removal of Tom Lewis (1976) and John Mason (1981) (both NSW) and Dick Hamer (1981) (Vic), and the Nationals' deposing of Mike Ahern (1989) (Qld) have been the most significant in the past two decades. Typically, poor opinion poll results are cited as justification of such moves against a leader. A variant was the removal of Labor's Doug Lowe (1981) (Tas), an event which helped precipitate a premature election. Aitkin's warning was relevant to all cases-the party that had made this late change lost the forthcoming election.(3)

In the cases mentioned, the date of the following election was uncertain, though close. In New South Wales in 1999, the parliament had a fixed term, so the parties knew the election date of 27 March. Despite this, as late as 11 December 1998, Liberal leader Peter Collins was forced from office by the supporters of Kerry Chikarovski. Just over a month later, on 14 January 1999, Ian Armstrong was replaced by George Souris as leader of the National Party. This was just over ten weeks from polling day, quite long enough, said Souris, to mount a successful campaign.

The Government was certainly vulnerable. In 1995 it won office with just 41.3 per cent of the first preference vote to the Coalition's 43.9 per cent, the lowest winning total since 1927, and with less than half of the two-party preferred vote. It won 50 of the Legislative Assembly's 99 seats. Within a few months its popularity had fallen to below 40 per cent, following its breaking of a promise to remove motorway tolls in western Sydney. Soon after the March 1996 Commonwealth election its popularity had dropped further to barely 30 per cent in the wake of the change in location of the Governor's residence and of the controversial dismissal of the head of the Department of Community Services. Between mid-1996 and early 1997 the Coalition under Collins had a healthy lead in the polls, though the Premier's own popularity was higher than the Liberal leader's. Labor only really began to match the Coalition during 1998 and throughout the year there was little in the poll margins.(4)

The campaign battle

It is a matter of fine judgment how early/late a party should issue its policies prior to polling day. Labor portrayed itself as 'getting on with the job' of government and not prepared to be diverted from this until the formal launch of its policies on 14 March, a stance that was not seriously challenged. The Liberals, by contrast, came under media pressure to unveil their policies right from the election of Chikarovski and were criticised for many weeks for being 'policy-free', despite the Liberal promise to reveal policies at the formal opening of its campaign-on the same day as Labor. Despite this apparent embargo on policies, both sides did gradually make clear some of their policies in the weeks prior to the policy launches.

There is a settled pattern to most State elections. Governments stand on their record, make a plea for being given another term 'to finish the job' and criticise their opponents for the extravagance of their claims. Oppositions have a tendency to produce a 'shopping list' of promises, as they seek to put together a set of policies broad enough to attract a majority of voters.(5) This election was no different, with the unusual aspect being the Coalition's public recognition that its promises would cost more than those made by the Government. In fact, it was forecast that the Coalition promises would see a Coalition government outspend Labor by a margin of five to one, a margin not disputed by either of the Coalition partners.(6)

As a consequence, there were relatively few promises made by the Government, though it spoke of more money for emergency services and for hospitals in western Sydney and in the country. By comparison, the Coalition emphasised an environment energy fund, more money for hospitals, a rural health boost, more dental services and a plan to scrap the controversial hotel bed tax. It made wide-ranging education promises and pledged to remove the controversial land tax on land worth more than $1.1m. The policy that caught most attention was a plan to privatise the production of electricity and to give each family $1000 cash or $1100 in shares from the proceeds.

In a move reminiscent of Coalition policies in the Wran years, much emphasis was placed on law and order, presumably in response to survey findings-a Herald AC Nielsen poll gave law and order as the issue that concerned the highest number of voters (23 per cent).(7) What was different on this occasion, however, was the Government's obvious determination not to be outbid by its rivals. Whereas the Coalition emphasised such matters as the employment of 2,500 extra police, the dedication of police to crime 'hot spots', the tougher treatment of graffiti crime and the establishment of 'grid' sentencing under a policy of 'zero tolerance', the Government spoke of being tougher on paedophilia and establishing new sentencing guidelines in areas of serious crime. Some of this law and order vote-bidding involved some controversial ideas: the Coalition proposal to gaol first-time graffiti vandals, for instance.

Oppositions often struggle to catch the campaign headlines-thus we have the heavy emphasis on staged media events and of the ubiquitous 'photo-opportunity'. In an effort to be heard, policy gimmicks are often thrown up to catch attention. The Coalition had its share: an 'employee ombudsman' to work to move employees to individual contracts and hence reduce union power, was an example. Others included a 10-day wilderness trek as an alternative to expulsion from school, and a 'community cadet scheme', which proposed a work-force of uniformed teenagers undertaking volunteer community work wherever required. The most controversial was a plan to force young offenders to wear fluorescent jackets branded 'Community service', while undertaking compulsory community work. This was a proposal which produced criticism from the ACT Liberal Chief Minister, Kate Carnell, herself critical of a similar shaming exercise in Canberra a few years earlier.(8)

Carnell's intervention was one of a number of distractions during the campaign that Chikarovski could have done without. Some were of potential importance, such as the difficulties caused by errors in the detail surrounding the electricity privatisation proposal, or of threats by MPs Peter Blackmore (Lib) and Mark Kersten (NP) not to support the legislation in the Parliament, or the National Party calls in late January to end the Coalition. The failure of talk-back radio hosts, such as Alan Jones, to wholeheartedly accept the Liberal leader, was another frustration. Three days before polling day, New South Wales Liberal director, Remo Nogarotto, was forced to apologise to former leader Peter Collins, for describing his leadership as 'three years of public humiliation'. Rather more bizarre was the need to respond to publicity given to call-back radio claims that the Liberal Party had touched up its Chikarovski television advertisements to make her eyes blue in colour.(9)

Governments can have a difficult task in breaking through voter resistance as they attempt to increase voter support, something that the Carr Government, with its three-seat majority, was keen to achieve. It was reported that Labor's strategy was to run a 'positive' campaign, with four main features. There was to be an apology from the Premier for any mistakes that had been made, followed by the claim that Labor was 'achieving more than you realise' and then a restatement of its achievements. Overriding everything else, the Leader of the Opposition was not to be attacked.(10) This strategy was adhered to, making it difficult for the Opposition to engage with the Government-the Premier even refusing a television debate with Chikarovski.

The image, then, was of a government in control, smoothly moving toward victory over an unsettled opponent, yet there were various problems which seemed to argue against an inevitable victory. Labor's land tax support brought heated opposition from HALT (Home-Owners Against Land Tax), its native vegetation and water management legislation had antagonised country interests and it even had to face front-page revelations concerning cockroaches infesting a major Sydney hospital in the middle of the campaign.

Quite close to polling day, media discussion tended to talk of a possible narrow parliamentary margin.(11) To an important extent, though, such predictions overlooked the evidence of the opinion polls. Even though the State-wide figures for the parties remained reasonably close, the election seemed to be won quite a long way out from polling day when opinion polls were indicating an overwhelming Government lead in Sydney. In mid-March, for instance, the Herald AC Nielsen poll had city voters favouring Labor by 13 percentage points, whereas Newspoll's State-wide margin was just two points.(12) If the former poll's figures were duplicated in Sydney on election day, and if the normally Labor-supporting Newcastle and Illawarra electorates voted for the Government as well, then Labor was likely to win comfortably and votes in rural areas were likely to be irrelevant to the result.

Legislative Assembly

The outcome

Labor's vote of 42.2 per cent barely rose from the 1995 figure (41.3%). The party won 55 of the 93 seats, compared with 50 of 99 seats in 1995. This was the third-lowest Labor vote since 1950-in fact, its four lowest post-War results have been in the past four elections, in which it has averaged just 40.3 per cent of first preferences. The heady days of 1953 when the party gained well over half the vote (55%), or 1978 (57.8%) or 1981 (55.7%), seemed long past, suggesting that the newspaper headline, 'Victory echoes ALP's Wranslide', was based on a shallow understanding of what has happened to the major parties in New South Wales.(13)

Tables 1 and 2a suggest that the opinion polls showing a clear Labor lead in the capital were accurate. Labor's 45.2 per cent was 13.1 per cent ahead of the Liberal Party, while in the provincial areas the gap was a massive 25.7 per cent. All but four of Labor's Assembly seats were won in the conurbation running from Newcastle through Sydney to the Illawarra, and bordered by the Blue Mountains.

The seats that 'changed hands' (based on notional allocation following the redistribution) were as follows:

Although Labor's vote remained static, its main rivals did not fare as well. The Liberal Party's 24.8 per cent (-8.0%) was the party's lowest New South Wales vote since its formation, even lower than its 27 per cent in the first Wran re-election (1978). Proportionally, its 20 seats (21% of the Assembly) was its fourth-worst effort on record. The National Party's 8.9 per cent of primaries (-2.2%) was its third-lowest effort since the 1920s, but its 13 seats out of a total of 93 (14%) was not markedly out of alignment with previous years-it held 17 per cent of seats after the previous election. The total Coalition vote (33.7%) was a great deal less than its 49.1 per cent in 1968, or its 49.5 per cent in 1988.

The combined major party vote declined to 75.9 per cent, a drop of 9.3 per cent on the 1995 result, the poorest such figure since the collapse of the United Australia Party prior to the 1944 election. The 1976 major party vote of 96.1 per cent was but a distant memory. The 1999 figure reflected recent voter shifts elsewhere in Australian elections.(14) Between them, the Greens, Australian Democrats and Pauline Hanson's One Nation Party (PHON) gained nearly 15 per cent of the vote. Lesser groups and independents also ate into the major party vote, securing nearly 10 per cent. Independent MLAs retained Bligh and Tamworth and independent candidates won Northern Tablelands, Dubbo and Manly, the last of which had been held by an independent.

The PHON vote of 7.5 per cent was lower than the party's New South Wales vote of 9 per cent in the 1998 Commonwealth election, and well behind the 22.7 per cent gained in the Queensland election. Despite this, all three elections have indicated that there might be a core PHON vote in some rural areas. In Barwon, Bega, Dubbo, Murray-Darling and Oxley, for instance, the party's vote ranged between 13.0 and 20.5 per cent. The rural PHON vote seems to be higher north and north-west of Sydney than elsewhere in the State. There might also be a core PHON support in some seats on the fringe of urban areas, that was seen in Cessnock, Charlestown, Port Stephens, Swansea and Wallsend, where the vote ranged from 10.2 to 16.1 per cent. If the next Commonwealth election is close, PHON preferences may well be very important in a significant number of Queensland and New South Wales seats.

Electorates of interest

Albury

It is rare that a local issue becomes a possible factor in a national election, but the controversial question of the proposed Albury by-pass featured in the 1998 Commonwealth election. National leader, Tim Fischer, bore the brunt of local unhappiness over this issue in his seat of Farrer, suffering a reduction in his first preference vote of 13.4 per cent. This issue was still of importance in the New South Wales election, with independent candidate, Claire Douglas, campaigning on this issue against the Liberals' Ian Glachen. Douglas won over one-third of first preferences, but despite appearing to have won on election night, lost the seat on preferences by 687 votes.

Bathurst

Bathurst was the Government's most marginal seat, with a margin of just 0.6 per cent. With the sitting member not contesting the seat, the National Party believed it had a good chance of victory. Despite Labor's generally mediocre rural vote, Gerard Martin enjoyed an increase in primary votes of 5.7 per cent, and won on first preferences (51.0 per cent).

Burrinjuck

The seat of Burrinjuck was held for the ALP by the Sheehans, father and son, from 1950 until 1988, when it was won for the Liberals by Alby Schultz. With Schultz elected to the House of Representatives in October 1998, Burrinjuck became a battle between the three major parties, with Gloria Schultz attempting to replace her husband. Despite trailing Labor's Michael McManus by 7.6 per cent on first preferences, Katrina Hodgkinson (NP) eventually won by 817 votes. Schultz gained a vote of 16.7 per cent.

Clarence

Former MHR for Page (1990-6) and Labor's Minister for Rural Affairs, Harry Woods, won the usually safe National Party seat of Clarence in a surprise 1996 by-election victory. The general press consensus seemed to be that the Nationals would regain the seat in 1999, and so it appeared during much of the count. At the end of counting, however, Woods (36.9% of first preferences) defeated Grafton councillor, Steve Cansdell (25.4%), by just 143 votes.

Dubbo

Dubbo was supposed to be the eighth-safest Opposition seat. Held by the Nationals' Gerry Peacocke since 1981, it was not the type of seat expected to fall. With Peacocke's resignation, Tony McGrane, Mayor of Dubbo for the previous eight years, temporarily stood down from office to nominate as an independent candidate, one of three high-profile mayors to contest seats in the election. After a re-count, McGrane won the seat by just 14 votes, the closest result in the State.

Georges River

Opposition spokesperson on the environment, Marie Ficarra, was one of three Liberal front-benchers to lose their seats. She had been a member of the Legislative Assembly since 1995, but suffered in the 1998 redistribution when her 1995 margin of 8 per cent was trimmed to the point where a swing of two per cent would see her defeated. Georges River thus became the third most marginal Opposition seat. In an election where Labor performed best in Sydney seats, it came as no surprise that Ficarra was swept away by a two-party preferred swing against her of 8.3 per cent.

Gosford

Gosford was one of the key seats that the Neville Wran-led Labor Party won in 1976 when the party returned after 11 years in the political wilderness. The seat has been held by the Liberal Party's Chris Hartcher since the Coalition victory in 1988. On this occasion, Hartcher was challenged by Barry Cohen, the 63-year-old former Labor member for the Commonwealth seat of Robertson (1969-90). Cohen had the reputation of being an excellent campaigner, but on this occasion his swing of 3.2 per cent was not enough to overcome Hartcher's cushion of 5.5 per cent.

Maitland

Peter Blackmore held the Coalition's most marginal seat, where a swing of less than one per cent would see him lose to Labor's John Price. Alert to the unpopularity of electricity privatisation in an electorate where many of the State's power workers resided, Blackmore had stated that he could not support privatisation legislation, were his party to move in that direction. Blackmore limited the swing to just 1.9 per cent, but lost his seat after a tense period of counting, by a margin of 755 votes.

Manly

After a long history as a solid non-Labor seat, Manly broke the mould with the election of an independent in 1962. The seat reverted to the Liberals in 1968, went to Labor ten years later, back to the Liberals in 1984 and to another independent, Peter Macdonald, in 1991. With the retirement of Macdonald, this was seen as a Liberal must-win seat if Labor was to be turned out of office. The Opposition attempted to make this certain with a promise to construct a tunnel under the Spit Bridge. The McDonald-supported independent, David Barr (30.2%), trailed Liberal candidate Darren Jones by 8.5 per cent on first preferences, but after the distribution of preferences won by 145 votes.

Miranda

Ron Phillips, Liberal deputy leader and treasury spokesman, first won Miranda in 1984. He held the re-shaped electorate by a notional margin of 5.3 per cent after the redistribution. Media reports spoke of his having antagonised some voters over his role in the pre-selection battle for the federal seat of Cook, which ousted Stephen Mutch for Bruce Baird, but Phillips' future seemed assured. Despite this, Labor's Barry Collier led him on first preferences by 2.3 per cent, and won comfortably after the allocation of preferences with a vote of 52.3 per cent.

Monaro

Monaro is a rural seat with an important urban segment in the city of Queanbeyan. Held by Labor during the Wran years, the National Party's Peter Cochran had turned it into a very safe Coalition seat, which required a swing of 16.3 per cent to fall to Labor. Following Cochran's resignation, Monaro was contested by the three major parties, PHON, the Greens and the high-profile mayor of Queanbeyan as an independent. The presence of Liberal and PHON candidates stripped the National first preference vote by 35.7 per cent, leaving Peter Webb trailing Labor's John Durst by 9.3 per cent. After a tense count, Webb won the seat by just 128 votes.

Northern Tablelands

This very safe National seat had a 14.6 per cent cushion against a swing to Labor. The Nationals lost the seat, however, when their first preference vote fell by 18.7 per cent, with voters turning to Richard Torbay, three-term mayor of Armidale and foundation member of the Country Summit Alliance (see below).

Ryde

The Liberal seat of Ermington held by Opposition transport spokesman, Michael Photios, and the Labor seat of Gladesville, held by John Watkins, were abolished in the redistribution. Both MLAs nominated for the new seat of Ryde, made up of voters from those two electorates as well as over 12,000 from Eastwood. Muddying the waters for Photios was the independent candidacy of former Liberal MLA for Gladesville (1988-95), Ivan Petch. Described as 'probably the best homeground campaigner in the business',(15) Photios was, nonetheless, defeated comfortably, barely winning one-third of the vote to his opponent's 44.1 per cent. Despite Liberal claims that the Petch campaign (8.5%) brought about their defeat, the combined Photios-Petch first preference tally was still two per cent behind the Labor vote.

Strathfield

Modern-day redistributions have the tendency to treat some sitting members quite roughly. Minister for Police Paul Whelan, MLA for Ashfield since 1976, found his seat abolished in the 1998 redistribution. Whelan unsuccessfully sought a safe seat, with his party effectively leaving him with little choice but to challenge Bruce MacCarthy in the Liberal seat of Strathfield, a seat which required a swing of 2.7 per cent. Reportedly pessimistic about his chances, Whelan campaigned vigorously, and won comfortably after leading his opponent by over 11 per cent on first preferences.

Tamworth

Tony Windsor has held this seat as an independent MLA since 1991. In this election his 69.4 per cent of first preferences was the highest in the State, and his after-preference vote was a remarkable 85.2 per cent.

Tweed

Tweed was the re-named seat of Murwillumbah. With a notional margin of 2.2 per cent it was the Nationals' most marginal seat. The sitting member, Don Beck, had been MLA for Byron (1984-8), and Murwillumbah since 1988. The Labor Party had tried hard to defeat him in the past, but he had withstood each challenge. In 1999, Labor was represented by Neville Newell, MHR for Richmond from 1990, when he had defeated National's federal leader, Charles Blunt, until his defeat in 1996. That unexpected victory was regarded as a measure of how much this former solid National region had altered, with the influx of many new residents. This presumably aided Newell on this occasion, as he led the sitting member by 3.5 per cent on first preferences and 2.6 per cent at the end of counting.

Legislative Council

The Legislative Council election proved to be the most controversial since the first general election held in 1981. New South Wales upper house elections are conducted with the State used as a single electorate-as in Senate elections. When the Single Transferable Vote method of proportional representation is used, the larger the number of members of parliament to be elected from the single electorate, the easier it is for minor party and independent candidates to gain election. In half-Senate elections where six are to be elected, a candidate needs a quota of 14.3 per cent of first and later preferences to be elected; by contrast, in this election with 21 to be elected, a candidate needed just 4.5 per cent.

It was clear that many in the community had grasped the possibility that this created. With a total of only 30 candidates being run by the Labor, Liberal and National parties, 233 non-major party candidates nominated, creating the so-called 'tablecloth' ballot paper. While it is presumably the case that some candidates seriously sought election, it is also clear that many took the opportunity to use the election to gain publicity for their cause. Parties such as the Euthanasia Referendum Party, People Against Paedophiles, the No Badgerys Creek Airport Party and the Timbarra Clean Water Party were examples of groups using the occasion to put themselves before a State-wide audience. Others effectively ridiculed the whole exercise, forming groups with names that included the What's Doing? Party, the Three Day Weekend Party or Make Billionaires Pay More Tax!

With so many names on the ballot paper, and with the combined major party vote likely to be less than the Legislative Assembly return, it was clear that the major parties would fall well short of winning all Legislative Council seats. In the event, less than two-thirds of the vote (64.7 per cent) was cast for major party candidates, 11.2 per cent less than in the lower house election. Labor's vote of 37.3 per cent (+2 per cent) won it 8 seats and the Liberal/National ticket, which received a vote of 27.4 (-11.1 per cent) garnered 6 seats. The remaining seven were divided between familiar and unfamiliar parties and groups. Of the former, Pauline Hanson's One Nation, the Australian Democrats, the Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group) and The Greens all won a seat. The new parliamentary players included Reform the Legal System (whose 1 per cent may have been donkey-vote-dominated, the result of being on the left-hand end of the ballot paper), the Unity Party ('dedicated to maintaining and enhancing an Australia that is truly multicultural'(16)), and the Outdoor Recreation Party. The controversial PHON leader, David Oldfield, was third MLC elected, on a party vote of 6.3 per cent (2.3 more than the Democrats), but with few preferences flowing to the party PHON was unable to gain a second seat. The last MLC to be elected was the veteran, Fred Nile, of the Christian Democratic Party who had been first elected in 1981.

John Tingle-The Shooters Party, and A Better Future for Our Children, which were already represented in the Legislative Council, missed out on a second seat. The Tingle group received the seventh highest total of votes (1.7%) but did not receive enough preferences from other groups and parties to win a seat. The independent MLA for Tamworth, Tony Windsor, had played a key role in the creation of the Country Summit Alliance, a rural-based group seeking 'equity with the city'. Windsor spoke of the Alliance distributing 800,000 Legislative Council how-to-vote cards, and predicted that it would win 2-4 seats, but its nine-member ticket failed to secure even a single per cent of the vote, and no seats were won.(17) The convenor of Republic 2001/People First, Glenn Druery, gained publicity for his efforts to tie up the preferences of a large number of the tiny groups, leading David Nason of the Australian to write admiringly of his 'mastery of the political numbers game', which made Druery's election 'seemingly a formality'. The group's 3,076 votes (0.09%) suggested that Mr Druery forgot about the need to campaign for enough first preferences to make the securing of second preferences a relevant factor in the outcome.(18)

The Government thus had 16 of the 42 MLCs, 6 short of a majority, with the Coalition holding 13 seats, 9 of these held by the Liberal Party. The presence in the Legislative Council of Richard Jones (Ind), two Greens, an Australian Democrat, the Reform the Legal System, and A Better Future For Our Children possibly makes the Government's task of getting its legislation through the upper house slightly easier than in the previous parliament (see Table 7).

In the days after the Legislative Council election, there were criticisms made of 'parties' being able to win a seat on a miniscule vote.

Percentages for parties winning Legislative Council seats

There has been discussion about altering the electoral arrangements to make it much harder for such non-major party candidates to gain seats. Achieving such an outcome will be difficult. Although the three major parties have the numbers to push such legislation through the Parliament if they choose to combine forces, there would then have to be a referendum voted on by all electors. The result of such a referendum might depend upon how controversial the Legislative Council had been in the meantime.

The verdict

The Government

It has been noted of State politics that if strong governments appear to be in control of events, and if they appear more competent than their rivals, then they can often dig in for long periods.(19) This can be seen in New South Wales, which has had only four changes of government since 1941, and where governments have been able to entrench themselves: Labor from 1941 to 1965, the Coalition from 1965 to 1976 and Labor from 1976 to 1988. In addition, Labor has had a long-term edge over the Coalition, winning 14 of 20 elections since 1941. During that period, strong leadership from Premiers such as McKell (1941-47), Cahill (1951-9) and Wran (1976-86), which emphasised 'political astuteness and pragmatism', has made Labor Governments very difficult to defeat.(20)

This type of analysis also seems to help explain the Carr Government's return to power. The comfortable lead in the polls that Labor enjoyed throughout the campaign period,(21) suggests that the Sydney Morning Herald may have been close to the mark, when suggesting that the Premier retained his position, 'because of his Government's first-term record of generally competent management of the affairs of the State'.(22) Mike Steketee of the Weekend Australian described the Government as politically surefooted, being 'never loath to reverse an unpopular decision or argue that what was white last week was now black'. An important illustration of this had been the change of mind over the issue of privatisation of electricity production, a controversial proposal which had initially been favoured by both the Premier and the Treasurer.(23) Hugh Mackay has also noted that survey evidence suggested that many Sydney (as distinct from rural) voters were satisfied with the Government's performance: 'Sydney's buzzing, and that's good news for incumbent governments, both here [in New South Wales] and in Canberra'.(24)

The Coalition

Despite both new leaders talking about new directions and a revived sense of purpose for their parties, it is likely that the changes to the leadership simply signalled to voters a general unhappiness in Coalition ranks. Mackay suggested that the changes simply made each new leader look like a 'backstabber', and that they sent voters the message that the parties were desperate: 'When the Coalition parties changed the leaders of both their parties, they cut their own throats'.(25) In early 1999 the poll position had been close enough for Malcolm Mackerras to wonder if the parliamentary balance of power would be held by two independents. In less than two months, however, there was poll evidence of a growing voter resistance to the appeals of the Liberal leader. On March 2, for instance, the Sydney Morning Herald reported poll findings that gave Chikarovski an approval rating of just 28 per cent, a figure only one per cent higher than Peter Collins' lowest reading. The poll also suggested an increase in her disapproval rating by 17 per cent to 42 per cent.(26)

The Liberal leader had made heavy weather of some announcements. She was criticised for her threat made to the Governor of a forced return to living in Government House and her uncertainty over the details of the party's electricity privatisation policy seemed to suggest a lack of preparation. The Liberal Party was forced to remove five advertisements through errors and misstatements contained within them, further suggesting a party that was unprepared for the election battle, despite having known the election date, a point made by the Bulletin's Laurie Oakes.(27) This was a view held by the Prime Minister, who attributed his party's poor performance in his home State to the fact that the former leader and his front bench team had been 'out to lunch', when they should have been hard at work in the preparation of policy. (28)

Liberal views of the final result were varied. Remo Nogarotto spoke of the 'phenomenal' Chikarovski campaign, and the Prime Minister now spoke of the Liberal organisation having 'performed magnificently', yet Andrew Fraser MLA (NP) believed the leadership changes to have been fatal for the Coalition's chances. Most spectacularly, the Victorian Premier Kennett criticised the campaign and the change of leadership and suggested that both Chikarovski and Nogarotto should lose their positions.(29)

In May 1999 the Liberal Party announced a six week inquiry by federal director, Lynton Crosby, into the reasons for the party's defeat.

Three-cornered contests

Various National Party members complained about the deleterious impact upon the Coalition campaign of three-cornered contests, once a staple part of Coalition campaigning, but much less reliable with the optional preferential voting method in use in New South Wales (and Queensland).(30) In this election there were seven cases. In the seats of Bathurst, where Labor won on first preferences, The Entrance, where the National vote was so low (9.5%) as to not be a factor, and Lismore, where Labor was well behind on first preferences, the three-cornered contest did not develop as the theory would suggest.

In Burrinjuck and Monaro, Labor was well ahead on first preferences and the Coalition votes (and others) helped pull the National candidate over the line. Although the three-cornered contest tactic was thus successful, it is certainly arguable that the National margin was much closer than it might have been had just the one Coalition candidate been standing. In Wagga Wagga the three-cornered contest worked perfectly. Labor topped the poll (26.3%) but the Liberal (25.4%) and National (22.9%) exchange of preferences produced a comfortable Liberal victory.

It was in Clarence, that National Party criticisms had most validity, for Minister Woods almost certainly retained the seat because of the three-cornered nature of the contest. The Liberal, Bill Day, had 7,794 votes before his exclusion, 7,004 of which had been Liberal first preferences. Of the 7,794 votes to be transferred, 2,358 (30.3%) exhausted.(31) If there had been just a single Coalition candidate, a clear majority of Liberal first preferences would have gone to the National Party candidate, Steve Cansdell. As Woods won by just 143 votes after the distribution of preferences, it is highly likely that the contest between Coalition partners was crucial in accounting for the result.

The future

Although the Labor vote was not particularly high (see Table 1), the party is well-placed as a result of the 1999 election, particularly as it dominates the all-important Sydney voting area. Thirty-four of its 55 seats are in the capital and these are buttressed by safe seats in the Illawarra, Newcastle and Central Coast regions. In 2003, a loss of 9 seats would see Labor lose control of the Assembly but this would leave the balance of power in the hands of independents. The Liberal and National Parties would only be certain of controlling the lower house in the following circumstances:

• If all independents retained their seats, 14 seats would need to be taken from Labor. This would require a two-party preferred vote in the 14 most marginal Labor seats of up to 9.7 per cent;
• If one independent seat was won, 13 seats would need to be taken from Labor. This would require a two-party preferred vote in the 13 most marginal Labor seats of up to 9.4 per cent;
• If two independent seats were won, 12 seats would need to be taken from Labor. This would require a two-party preferred vote in the 12 most marginal Labor seats of up to 8.4 per cent;
• If three independent seats were won, 11 seats would need to be taken from Labor. This would require a two-party preferred vote in the 11 most marginal Labor seats of up to 7.9 per cent;
• If four independent seats were won, 10 seats would need to be taken from Labor. This would require a two-party preferred vote in the 10 most marginal Labor seats of up to 7.5 per cent;
• If all five independent seats were won, 9 seats would need to be taken from Labor. This would require a two-party preferred vote in the 9 most marginal Labor seats of up to 6.6 per cent. This would also require, however, a massive increase in the National Party vote in Tamworth, an eventuality that would seem likely only in the absence of Tony Windsor.

In the election of 1978 the Coalition vote dropped by 9.4 per cent, while ten years later the Labor vote fell 10.3 per cent, so the shaking-loose of sufficient Labor votes over the next four years is not an impossible target. A steady performance by the second Carr Government would, however, make it very difficult to achieve.

The Liberal Party's position is on a par with its poor performances of 1978 and 1981. Thirteen of its 20 seats are in Sydney, with eleven of those on Sydney's north shore. Outside of the capital it holds Bega, Wagga Wagga and Albury, plus a few seats on the fringe of Sydney.

Country New South Wales is still dominated by the National Party, which holds 13 of 25 rural seats, with Dubbo and Clarence almost within its grasp. Its vote of 8.9 per cent is a reminder of the poor 7.9 per cent the party gained in New South Wales in the 1998 Commonwealth election, and must continue to be of concern to party members. Some voices, including former leader, Ian Armstrong, have called for the party to leave the Coalition, but George Souris has withstood such pressure for the time being.(32)

Endnotes

1. All notional margins in this paper are from Antony Green, 1997/98 NSW Redistribution: Analysis of Final Boundaries, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service, Background Paper No. 4/98.
2. Don Aitkin, Stability and change in Australian politics, Australian National University Press, Canberra, 1977.
3. Scott Bennett, Affairs of State: Politics in the Australian States and Territories, Allen and Unwin, Sydney, 1992, p. 191.
4. Australian, 15 February 1999.
5. Scott Bennett, 'Parties and elections', in Brian Galligan (ed), Australian State Politics, Longman Cheshire, Melbourne, 1986, p. 221.
6. Australian, 25 March 1999.
7. Sydney Morning Herald, 26 March 1999.
8. Australian, 26 March 1999.
9. Canberra Times, 8 March 1999; Weekend Australian, 30-31 January 1999; Australian, 25 March 1999; Daily Telegraph, 23 January 1999.
10. Sydney Morning Herald, Australian, 29 March 1999.
11. 'A large late swing against the Carr Government has set the stage for a tight contest in today's NSW election', Mike Steketee in Weekend Australian, 27-28 March 1999.
12. Sydney Morning Herald, 26 March 1999; Weekend Australian, 27-28 March 1999.
13. Sydney Morning Herald, 29 March 1999.
14. Scott Bennett, 'The Decline in Support for the Major Parties and the Prospect of Minority Government', Research Paper No. 10, Department of the Parliamentary Library, Information and Research Services, 1998-99.
15. Sydney Morning Herald, 26 March 1999.
16. http://www.edoz.com.au/unitynsw/
17. Weekend Australian, 12-13 December 1998, Sydney Morning Herald, 2 March 1999.
18. Australian, 19 March 1999.
19. Bennett, 'Parties and elections', p. 220.
20. See David Clune, The New South Wales State Election 1953, New South Wales Parliamentary Library and Department of Government, University of Sydney, [1996?], p. 27.
21. This was almost total. The only exception was a particular Newspoll finding which suggested a four point Coalition lead in January-February. This was so much out of kilter with other polls that it probably can be discounted, see Australian, 24 February 1999.
22. Sydney Morning Herald, 29, 30 March 1999.
23. Weekend Australian, 27-28 March 1999.
24. Sydney Morning Herald, 30 March 1999.
25. ibid.
26. Malcolm Mackerras, 'Power pivots on Independent pair', Australian, 2 February 1999; Sydney Morning Herald, 2 March 1999.
27. Laurie Oakes, 'Blonde ambition', Bulletin, 30 March 1999, p. 49.
28. Weekend Australian, 3-4 April 1999.
29. Sydney Morning Herald, 29 March 1999.
30. For three-cornered contests, see Scott Bennett, Winning and Losing: Australian National Elections, Melbourne, Melbourne University Press, 1996, pp. 51-3.
31. When optional preferential voting is used, ballot papers with no second (or later) preferences are set aside as 'exhausted' votes, or in other words, the votes 'exhaust'.
32. Sydney Morning Herald, 29 March 1999.

Table 1: Legislative Assembly, State Summary

Table 2a: Legislative Assembly, District Summary

First Preference Votes, Number

Table2a: Legislative Assembly, District Summary

First Preference Votes, Number continued

Table2b: Legislative Assembly, District Summary

First Preference Votes, Per cent

Table2b: Legislative Assembly, District Summary

First Preference Votes, Per cent continued

Table 3: Legislative Assembly, District Summary

Two Candidate Preferred Votes

Table 3: Legislative Assembly, District Summary

Two Candidate Preferred Votes

Table 4: Electoral Pendulum

Table 5 Legislative Assembly: District Summary