RESEARCH PAPER SERIES, 2018–19              7 december 2018

Population and migration statistics in Australia

Joanne Simon-Davies

Statistics and Mapping Section

Introduction

Compared with 100 years ago, Australians today are older, have fewer children, are more likely to live in urban areas, and are more likely to be born overseas in countries other than the United Kingdom. Stimulated by the gold rushes of the 19th century, Australia's population had reached nearly four million by Federation in 1901. For the first part of the 20th century, natural increase was the main contributor to population growth, as better living conditions saw births outnumber deaths. Following the end of World War II in 1945, the total fertility rate grew and Australia actively embarked on an immigration program to boost the population.

The rate of population growth has increased since the mid-2000s. Overseas migration is now the main driver of this, making up about 64 per cent of population growth (2017). By 2018, Australia's population had increased to 25 million people.[1]

This guide provides an overview of the drivers of Australia’s growing population and an introduction to the key concepts and terminology used.

Counting the Australian population

There are two ways the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) determines the size and characteristics of the population: the five-yearly Census of Population and Housing (Census) and quarterly estimates of the resident population. The Census can be counted by place of enumeration or by place of usual residences:

·         Census counts by place of enumeration are a count of every person in Australia on Census Night, based on where they were located on that night. This may or may not be the place where they usually live. This count excludes Australian residents who were out of the country on Census Night and overseas diplomatic personnel and their families in Australia.

·         Census counts by place of usual residences are a count of people based on the place where they usually live. This information is determined from responses to the question of usual residence on the census form. Visitors to an area are not included in the usual residence Census count.

·        Estimated resident population (ERP) is the official estimate of the Australian population and based on Census counts by place of usual residence, to which are added the estimated Census net undercount (those people missed on Census night[2]) and the number of Australian residents estimated to have been temporarily overseas on Census night. Short term overseas visitors in Australia on Census night are excluded in this calculation. Post-Census ERP is obtained by adding to the estimated population at the beginning of each period the components of population—natural increase and net overseas migration.

Components of population growth

As mentioned above, there are two components to estimating population growth:

·         Natural increase is the excess of births over deaths (measured by fertility rates and life expectancy).

·        Net overseas migration (NOM)[3] is the difference between incoming migrants and outgoing migrants[4]. Net overseas migrant arrivals are all arrivals who are in Australia for a total of 12 months or more during a 16-month period. These people are added to the ERP. Net overseas migrant departures are people counted in the ERP, and then removed after they have been outside of Australia for 12 months or more during a 16-month period. Short-term tourists in Australia for less than 12 months are not included in the count; however international students who are in Australia studying for more than 12 months are included. Data provided by the Department of Home Affairs (Home Affairs) is used by the ABS to calculate the official NOM estimates each quarter.

According to the ABS:

The official measure of the population of Australia is based on the concept of usual residence. It refers to all people, regardless of nationality, citizenship or legal status, who usually live in Australia, with the exception of foreign diplomatic personnel and their families. It includes usual residents who are overseas for less than 12 months over a 16-month period. It excludes overseas visitors who are in Australia for less than 12 months over a 16-month period.[5]

The relative contribution these two components make has changed considerably over time, as can be seen in Figure 1. During 1976–1977, natural increase represented 66.6 per cent of Australia’s population growth and NOM 33.4 per cent; by 2016–17 natural increase represented only 36.0 per cent of Australia’s population growth with NOM at 64.0 per cent. Interestingly, the increase in NOM in recent years has not been caused by an increase in permanent settlers. Rather it has been driven by people staying in Australia on long-term temporary visas, such as overseas students and temporary skilled migrants (see Table 1 on page 5).

Figure 1 Components of change, 1976–77 to 2016–17

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Australian Historical Population Statistics, cat no. 3105.0.65.001 (Population size and growth) and Australian Demographic Statistics, March 2018, cat no. 3101.0 (table 1)

It is important to note that whilst natural increase is largely outside of government control, migration (NOM) can be influenced by a range of factors including government policy (in particular migration policy), the state of the Australian economy and labour market, and the existing patterns of settlement.

For further information on Australia’s estimated population: ABS Australian Demographic Statistics, cat no. 3101.0.

Population growth in Australia

Since Federation, Australia’s population has varied from periods of very high growth to periods of slow growth as can be seen in Figure 2. During World War 1, there was negative population growth (-0.9 per cent in 1915–16) due to soldiers going overseas; emerging from World War 1, the population grew rapidly (3.3 per cent in 1918–19) followed by a considerable drop during the Great Depression of the 1930s (falling to 0.7 per cent in 1933–34). Following World War II, annual growth reached 3.4 per cent in 1949–50 and peaked at 4.5 per cent in 1971. During this period (early 1950s to early 1970s), average annual growth was 2.2 per cent. After a relatively slow growth period during the 1980s and 1990s, Australia’s population growth rate increased again in the mid-2000s peaking in 2008–09 at 2.1 per cent. In 2016–17, the growth rate was 1.7 percent.

It is important to note that Australia’s population growth varies widely across states and territories and sub-regions. In general, Australian cities have grown strongly whilst growth in regional areas has been mixed. Over the last decade, migration has contributed particularly strongly to population growth in Sydney, Perth and Melbourne. Regional population growth is discussed in more detail later in this Quick Guide.

Figure 2 Australia's population growth, 1901–02 to 2016–17

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Australian Historical Population Statistics, cat no. 3105.0.65.001 (Population size and growth) and Australian Demographic Statistics, March 2018, cat no. 3101.0 (table 1)

Components of migration

A range of visa categories contribute to NOM, including temporary visas (i.e. students and long- term visitors), permanent settlers plus Australians returning home or leaving the country.

According to the ABS:

Home Affairs manages and grants visas each year and it is important to note there is a difference between when Home Affairs issues a visa and when and how they may impact on NOM and therefore Australia's estimated resident population. For example, for many visas there can be a lag between a visa being granted and the actual use of that visa by the applicant on entering Australia. Also, some travellers who have been granted permanent or long-term temporary visas may end up staying in Australia for a short period of stay or not at all. In addition, travellers may also apply for and be granted a different visa whilst in Australia or overseas. However, without an additional border crossing within the reference quarter to capture a traveller's change of visa, the NOM system is unable to show these occurrences.[6]

In short, the ABS cannot account for the transition between visa categories after arrival such as a student moving from a temporary to permanent visa.

Table 1 provides a breakdown of visa categories by NOM and clearly shows temporary visa holders were the main contributors to NOM in both 2006–07 and in 2016–17 financial years (61.5 per cent and 70.7 per cent respectively).

Table 1 Net overseas migration (NOM) by visa category (a), 2006–07 and 2016–17 (b)

Visa category

2006-07

2016-17

no.

%

no.

%

Temporary visas

143,090

61.5

185,450

70.7

     Vocational Education and Training sector

16,600

7.1

4,530

1.7

     Higher education sector

41,920

18.0

75,550

28.8

     Student other

19,730

8.5

23,920

9.1

     Temporary work skilled (subclass 457)

26,470

11.4

16,630

6.3

     Visitor

25,850

11.1

53,710

20.5

     Working Holiday

16,980

7.3

24,190

9.2

     Other temporary visas

-4,450

-1.9

-13,060

-5.0

Permanent visas

79,810

34.3

85,250

32.5

     Family

27,990

12.0

24,330

9.3

     Skill

40,400

17.4

37,780

14.4

     Special Eligibility and humanitarian

12,310

5.3

23,760

9.1

     Other permanent visas

-890

-0.4

-610

-0.2

New Zealand Citizen (subclass 444)

28,950

12.4

5,990

2.3

Australian Citizen

-17,160

-7.4

-14,250

-5.4

Other

-1,880

-0.8

50

0.0

Total

232,800

100.0

262,490

100.0

(a) Represents the number of visas based on the visa type at the time of a traveller's specific movement. It is this specific movement that has been used to calculate NOM. Therefore the number of visas in this table should not be confused with information on the number of visas granted by Home Affairs.

(b) Data for 2016-17 is preliminary

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Migration Australia 2016-17, cat no. 3412.0 (Table 2.3 and Table 2.13)

As noted previously, NOM refers to the number of persons arriving in Australia minus the number leaving and in some instances can result in a negative value. In Table 1, NOM for Australian citizens (2016–17) is minus 14,250 because there were fewer arrivals (78,890) compared to departures (93,140) resulting in a negative NOM.

For further information on visa types and NOM: ABS, Migration Australia, cat no. 3412.0

Country of birth of new arrivals

The composition of the Australian population has changed considerably since Federation. In 1901, Australia had a population of 3.8 million people, of whom 22.6 per cent were born overseas. Of those born overseas (in the top ten countries of birth), the majority were from the United Kingdom and Ireland (79.7 per cent) with only one country from Asia—China, representing 3.5 per cent of the population.

By 2016, with a population of 23.4 million, 26.3 per cent were born overseas. While this is not a substantial increase from 1901, the country profile for those born overseas has changed significantly. China now represents 8.3 per cent of the overseas-born population and is one of six Asian countries listed in the top ten countries of birth. In contrast, the United Kingdom, whilst still number one on the list, now represents only 17.7 per cent of overseas born.

Australia is now a nation of people from over 190 different countries and 300 different ancestries.[7]

Table 2 Top 10 countries of birth, 1901, 1954, 2001 and 2016

Country

Population

Share (%)

Country

Population

Share (%)

1901 Census

1954 Census

1. United Kingdom (a)

495 504

58.1

1. United Kingdom

616 532

47.9

2. Ireland

184 085

21.6

2. Italy

119 897

9.3

3. Germany

38 352

4.5

3. Germany

65 422

5.1

4. China

29 907

3.5

4. Poland

56 594

4.4

5. New Zealand

25 788

3.0

5. Netherlands

52 035

4.0

6. Sweden/Norway

9 863

1.2

6. Ireland

47 673

3.7

7. South Sea Islands

9 128

1.1

7. New Zealand

43 350

3.4

8. British India

7 637

0.9

8. Greece

25 862

2.0

9. USA

7 448

0.9

9. Yugoslavia

22 856

1.8

10. Denmark

6 281

0.7

10. Malta

19 988

1.6

Top ten total

810 113

95.5

Top ten total

1 070 209

83.2

Other

47 463

4.5

Other

215 589

16.8

Total overseas born

852 373

100

Total overseas born

1 285 789

100.0

Total population

3,788,123

Total population

8 986 530

% of Australian born overseas

22.6

% of Australian born overseas

14.3

Country

Population

Share (%)

Country

Population

Share (%)

2001 Census

2016 Census

1. United Kingdom

1 036 242

25.5

1. United Kingdom

1 087 756

17.7

2. New Zealand

355 765

8.8

2. New Zealand

518 462

8.4

3. Italy

218 718

5.4

3. China

509 558

8.3

4. Viet Nam

154 830

3.8

4. India

455 385

7.4

5. China

142 781

3.5

5. Philippines

232 391

3.8

6. Greece

116 430

2.9

6. Viet Nam

219 351

3.6

7. Germany

108 219

2.7

7. Italy

174 042

2.8

8. Philippines

103 942

2.6

8. South Africa

162 450

2.6

9. India

95 455

2.3

9. Malaysia

138 363

2.2

10. Netherlands Netherlands

83 324

2.1

10. Sri Lanka

109 850

1.8

Top ten total

2 415 706

59.4

Top ten total

3 607 608

58.7

Other

1 648 248

40.6

Other

2 542 443

41.3

Total overseas born

4 063 954

100.0

Total overseas born

6 150 051

100.0

Total population

18 769 228 530

Total population

23 401 891

% of Australian born overseas

21.7

% of Australian born overseas

26.3

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Census of Population and Housing, 1901, 1954, 2001 and 2016

For all Census years since 1901:  Top 10 countries of birth for the overseas-born population since 1901, Parliamentary Library.

Geographic distribution

Over the past ten years (June 2007 to June 2017), all states and territories have experienced population growth. Victoria had the largest growth in absolute numbers (1,168,126 people), followed by New South Wales (1,027,518) and Queensland (818,134). Tasmania had the smallest growth (28,890).

Table 3 Estimated resident population by States, Territories and Greater Capital Cities, June 2007 to June 2017

States and territories

2007

2017

2007-2017 ERP change

no.

%

New South Wales

       6,834,156

       7,861,674

     1,027,518

15.0

    Greater Sydney

4,325,525

       5,132,355

           806,830

18.7

Victoria

       5,153,522

       6,321,648

     1,168,126

22.7

    Greater Melbourne

3,841,760

       4,843,781

        1,002,021

26.1

Queensland

       4,111,018

       4,929,152

        818,134

19.9

    Greater Brisbane

1,958,907

       2,413,457

           454,550

23.2

South Australia

       1,570,619

       1,723,671

        153,052

9.7

    Greater Adelaide

       1,204,210

       1,334,167

           129,957

10.8

Western Australia

       2,106,139

       2,575,452

        469,313

22.3

    Greater Perth

       1,628,467

       2,039,041

           410,574

25.2

Tasmania

          493,262

          522,152

          28,890

5.9

     Greater Hobart

          206,649

          229,088

              22,439

10.9

Northern Territory

          213,748

          247,491

          33,743

15.8

     Greater Darwin

          116,935

          148,884

              31,949

27.3

Aust. Capital Territory

          342,644

          411,667

          69,023

20.1

Total (including Other Territories)

20,827,622

24,597,528

3,769,906

18.1

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2016-17, cat no. 3218.0 (revised, August 2018)

Over the same period, Melbourne had the largest growth of all Greater Capital Cities (1,002,021), followed by Sydney (806,830) and Brisbane (454,550). Together, these three cities accounted for 60 per cent of total population growth in Australia.

Components of population change: regional comparison

Population change at the sub-state level can be considered in terms of three main components: natural increase, net overseas migration and net internal migration.

Greater Capital Cities

Although the number of people in all capital cities grew in the year ended June 2017, the proportion each of these components contributed to population change varied substantially among the cities, as can be seen in Figure 3 on page 8.

Melbourne experienced the largest population growth of all capital cities in 2016–17, increasing by 129,500 people. Net overseas migration was the major contributor, accounting for 64.1 per cent (or 83,000 people); however Sydney’s NOM contribution was higher than Melbourne’s (83.9 per cent or 90,200). This compares with 60.4 per cent of growth in Perth (11,900) and 40.6 per cent in Brisbane (20,600).

Figure 3 Components of population change: Greater Capital City comparison, 2016–17

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2016-17, cat no. 3218.0 (revised, August 2018)

Rest of state

Just as there is variation in components of population in Greater Capital Cities (Figure 3), this variation is also evident in ‘Rest of State’ (Figure 4). Rest of Queensland experienced the largest population growth, increasing by 33,215 in 2016–17. Net overseas migration was the major contributor, accounting for 43.8 per cent (or 14,561 people), followed closely by natural increase accounting for 39.3 per cent of growth (13,046 persons). Interestingly, Rest of Queensland represented almost half of all natural increase for non-capital city areas in Australia. This may be explained by the fact that Queensland is more decentralised than other states and territories.

Net overseas migration was the major contributor in Rest of New South Wales (14,324 people), a similar number to Queensland (14,561 people), however it accounted for 67.0 per cent of growth in Rest New South Wales (compared to only 43.8 per cent).  In Rest of Victoria, NOM accounted for 37.1 per cent of growth (7,074 people), and 56.6 per cent in Rest of Tasmania (828 people).

In Rest of Western Australia, population gains from natural increase (3,698) and NOM were negated by net internal migration losses of -5,466 persons. Likewise, in Rest of South Australia, whilst there were increases in NOM (960 people) and natural increase (431 people), there was a loss of 973 by net internal migration.

Figure 4 Components of population change: Rest of state comparison, 2016–17

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2016-17, cat no. 3218.0 (revised, August 2018)

For further information on regional population estimates Regional Population Growth, Australia, cat no. 3218.0

Population projections

In November 2018 the ABS released new population projections for the period June 2018 to June 2066. These projections have been updated to reflect the 2016 Census-based population estimates. The ABS stress that these ’projections are not intended to be predictions or forecasts, but are illustrations of growth and change in the population that would occur if assumptions made about future demographic trends were to prevail over the projection period’.[8]

The ABS uses the cohort-component method for producing population projections. In this method, assumptions made about future levels of fertility, mortality, overseas migration and internal migration are applied to a base population (applied by sex and single year of age) to obtain a projected population for the following year. The assumptions applied, such as overseas migration and fertility, do not specifically attempt to allow for non-demographic factors (such as major government policy decisions, economic factors, catastrophes, wars, epidemics or significant health treatment improvements) which may affect future demographic behaviour or outcomes. [9]

As future levels of fertility, mortality, overseas migration and internal migration are unpredictable, two or more assumptions have been made for each component and projections have been produced for all combinations of the assumptions. These are intended to illustrate a range of possible future outcomes, although there can be no certainty that any particular outcome will be realised, or that future outcomes will necessarily fall within these ranges.

These assumptions can be combined to create 54 sets of population projections. Three series have been selected from these to provide a range of projections for analysis and discussion. These series are referred to as series A, B and C. Series B largely reflects current trends in fertility, life expectancy at birth and migration, whereas series A and series C are based on higher and lower assumptions respectively for each of these variables.

This variation in assumptions can be seen in the graph below. Based on current trends, Australia's population is projected to reach 30 million people between 2029 and 2033.

Under all assumptions, the population of New South Wales is projected to remain as the largest state with a population of between approximately 9.0 and 9.3 million by 2027. Victoria is projected to experience the largest and fastest increase in population; possibly reaching between 7.5 and 7.9 million by 2027.[10]

Figure 5 Population projection: Series A, B and C, 2018 to 2066

Population projection: Series A, B and C, 2018 to 2066Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066, cat no. 3218.0

For further information: ABS, Population Projections, 2017-2066, cat no. 3222.0

Glossary

Terms used in this Quick Guide and other reports on this topic, based on:

(a) Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Australian Demographic Statistics, March 2018, cat no. 3101.0

(b) Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Migration, Australia, 2016-17, cat no. 3412.0

(c) Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2016-17, cat no. 3218.0

(d) Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) – 2066, cat no. 3222.0

12/16 month rule (a)

Under a '12/16 month rule', incoming overseas travellers (who are not currently counted in the population) must be resident in Australia for a total period of 12 months or more, during the 16 month follow-up period to then be added to the estimated resident population. Similarly, those travellers departing Australia (who are currently counted in the population) must be absent from Australia for a total of 12 months or more during the 16 month follow-up period to then be subtracted from the estimated resident population.

The 12/16 months do not have to be continuous.  The rule takes account of those persons who may have left Australia briefly and returned, while still being resident for 12 months out of 16. Similarly, it takes account of Australians who live most of the time overseas but periodically return to Australia for short periods.

Census (a)

The complete enumeration of a population at a point in time with respect to well-defined characteristics (e.g. Persons, Industry, etc.). 

Estimated resident population (ERP) (a)

The official measure of the population of Australia is based on the concept of usual residence. It refers to all people, regardless of nationality, citizenship or legal status, who usually live in Australia, with the exception of foreign diplomatic personnel and their families. It includes usual residents who are overseas for less than 12 months over a 16-month period. It excludes overseas visitors who are in Australia for less than 12 months over a 16-month period.

Estimates of the Australian resident population are generated on a quarterly basis by adding natural increase (the excess of births over deaths) and net overseas migration (NOM) occurring during the period to the population at the beginning of each period. 

Migrant—International (b)

An international migrant is defined as ’any person who changes his or her country of usual residence’ (United Nations 1998). The country of usual residence is the country in which a person lives, that is to say, the country in which he or she has a place to live where he or she normally spends the daily period of rest. A long-term international migrant is a person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least a year (12 months), so that the country of destination effectively becomes his or her new country of usual residence.

In Australia, for the purposes of estimating net overseas migration, and thereby the official population counts, a person is regarded as a usual resident if they have been (or expected to be) residing in Australia for a period of 12 months or more over a 16 month period.

Natural Increase (a)

Excess of births over deaths.

Net internal migration (c)

Net internal migration is the net gain or loss of population through the movement of people within Australia from one region to another (both interstate and intrastate)

Net interstate migration (a)

The difference between the number of persons who have changed their place of usual residence by moving into a given state or territory and the number who have changed their place of usual residence by moving out of that state or territory during a specified time period. This difference can be either positive or negative.

Net overseas migration (NOM) (a)

Net overseas migration is the net gain or loss of population through immigration to Australia and emigration from Australia. Under the current method for estimating final net overseas migration this term is based on a traveller's actual duration of stay or absence using the '12/16 month rule'. Preliminary NOM estimates are modelled on patterns of traveller behaviours observed in final NOM estimates for the same period one year earlier. NOM is:

·         based on an international traveller's duration of stay being in or out of Australia for 12 months or more over a 16-month period

·         the difference between:

o       the number of incoming international travellers who stay in Australia for 12 months or more over a 16-month period, who are not currently counted within the population, and are then added to the population (NOM arrivals) and

o         the number of outgoing international travellers (Australian residents and long-term visitors to Australia) who leave Australia for 12 months or more over a 16-month period, who are currently counted within the population, and are then subtracted from the population (NOM departures).

NOM arrivals (a)

NOM arrivals are all overseas arrivals that contribute to net overseas migration (NOM). It is the number of incoming international travellers who stay in Australia for 12 months or more over a 16-month period, who are not currently counted within the population, and are then added to the population. 

Under the current method for estimating final net overseas migration this term is based on a traveller's 
actual duration of stay or absence using the '12/16 month rule'.

NOM departures (a)

NOM departures are all overseas departures that contribute to net overseas migration (NOM). It is the number of outgoing international travellers who leave Australia for 12 months or more over a 16-month period, who are currently counted within the population, and are then subtracted from the population.

Under the current method for estimating final net overseas migration this term is based on a traveller's 
actual duration of stay or absence using the '12/16 month rule'.

Net undercount (a)

The difference between the actual Census count (including imputations) and an estimate of the number of people who should have been counted in the Census. This estimate is based on the Post Enumeration Survey (PES) conducted after each Census. For a category of person (e.g. based on age, sex and state of usual residence), net undercount is the result of Census undercount, overcount, differences in classification between the PES and Census and imputation error.

Passenger card (b)

Passenger cards are completed by nearly all passengers arriving in Australia. Information including: country of previous residence, intended length of stay, main reason for journey, and state or territory of intended stay/residence is collected.

Permanent arrivals (settlers) (b)

Permanent arrivals (settlers) comprise:

·        travellers who hold permanent migrant visas (regardless of stated intended period of stay)

·        New Zealand citizens who indicate an intention to migrate permanently on their passenger arrival card and

·        those who are otherwise eligible to settle (e.g. overseas born children of Australian citizens).

This definition of settlers is used by the Department of Home Affairs (Home Affairs).

Permanent visa (b)

A visa allowing the holder to remain indefinitely in Australia's migration zone.

Population growth (a)

For Australia, population growth is the sum of natural increase and net overseas migration. For states and territories, population growth also includes net interstate migration.

Population growth rate (a)

Population change over a period as a proportion (percentage) of the population at the beginning of the period.

Population projections (d)

The ABS uses the cohort-component method for producing population projections of Australia, the states, territories, capital cities and balances of state. This method begins with a base population for each sex by single year of age and advances it year by year, for each year in the projection period, by applying assumptions regarding future fertility, mortality and migration. The assumptions are based on demographic trends over the past decade and longer, both in Australia and internationally. The projections are not predictions or forecasts, but are simply illustrations of the change in population which would occur if the assumptions were to prevail over the projection period. A number of projections are produced by the ABS to show a range of possible future outcomes.

Rebasing of population estimates (a)

After each Census, the ABS uses Census counts by place of usual residence which are adjusted for undercount to construct a new base population figure for 30 June of the Census year. Because this new population estimate uses the Census as its main data source, it is said to be 'based' on that Census and is referred to as a population base.

Temporary visas (b)

Temporary entrant visas are visas permitting persons to come to Australia on a temporary basis for specific purposes. Main contributors are tourists, international students, those on temporary work visas, business visitors and working holiday makers.

Total fertility rate (TFR) (a)

The sum of age-specific fertility rates (live births at each age of mother per female population of that age) divided by 1,000. It represents the number of children a female would bear during her lifetime if she experienced current age-specific fertility rates at each age of her reproductive life (ages 15 - 49).

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[1].  Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2014, cat no. 3105.0.65.001

[2].              Includes those who did not complete a Census form.

[3].              In 2006, the ABS change the definition of NOM, introducing the 12/16 month rule for calculating NOM. Consequently, this year marks a break in the series and NOM estimates from earlier periods are not comparable.

[4].              The input data for calculating NOM is mainly sourced from administrative data provided by the Department of Home Affairs. Administrative information on persons arriving in, or departing from, Australia is collected from various sources including passport documents, visa information, and passenger cards. ABS, Information Paper: Improvements to the Estimation of Net Overseas Migration, Mar 2018, cat no. 3412.0.55.004

[5].               ABS, ‘Glossary’, Australian Demographic Statistics, Mar 2018, cat. no. 3101.0, ABS, Canberra

[6]. Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Migration Australia 2016-17, cat no. 3412.0, Net Overseas Migration

[7]. Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS),2016 Census of Population and Housing, Cultural diversity in Australia, 2016 Census article

[8]. Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Population projections, 2017 (base) – 2066, cat not 3222.0

[9].  Ibid

[10].  Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Australia's population to reach 30 million in 11 to 15 years, media release, 22 November 2018