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|
1991-92 $m |
1992-93 $m |
1993-94 $m |
1994-95 $m |
1995-96 $m |
1996-97 $m |
1997-98 $m |
1998-99 $m |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Budgetary outlays |
658 |
756 |
786 |
810 |
673 |
614 |
614 |
635 |
|
Tax expenditure measures |
522 |
1021 |
1137 |
1572 |
1007 |
1058 |
837 |
807 |
|
Total budgetary assistance |
1180 |
1777 |
1923 |
2382 |
1680 |
1672 |
1451 |
1442 |
Data for 1998-99 are budget appropriations. Data for earlier years are government expenditures.
Source: Productivity Commission, Trade & Assistance Review 1997-98 and personal communication.
Since 1994-95 total budgetary assistance has declined; the main reductions being in the tax concessions area with the phasing out of the general investment allowance on plant and equipment and the reduction in the R&D tax concession from 150 to 125 per cent in 1996. With respect to budgetary outlays, expenditure savings have been made through the phase down (and in most cases, abolition) of bounty assistance to specific industries and also the abolition of the Development Import Finance Facility. On the other side of the ledger, there have been significantly increased outlays for the Industry Innovation Program and for the pharmaceutical industry Factor f Program. The successor to Factor f, which commenced in July 1999, involves a lower level of assistance to this industry.
To provide some relativity to Budget assistance to the manufacturing sector, it can be expressed as a percentage of value added in manufacturing or in terms of assistance per person employed in manufacturing. Hence in 1997-98, Budget assistance to manufacturing in Australia was $1451 million which represents 2.3 per cent of the $62 billion value added in manufacturing. Later in this paper, it is shown that the corresponding ratio of State aid to manufacturing as a percentage of value added in the European Community is marginally higher at 2.6 per cent. It is noted, however, that over half of State aid to manufacturing in the European Community goes to regional assistance which is a very minor component of Commonwealth Budget assistance in Australia.
Employment in Australian manufacturing in 1997-98 was 1.12 million and Budget assistance per person employed was $1319. The corresponding figure for the European Community was higher at about $2000.
Trends in Rates of Assistance to Industry
The Industry Commission publishes two key measures of total Commonwealth Government assistance to industry:
The effective rate of assistance is the preferred measure of the impact of government assistance on the allocation of resources. It provides a basis for assessing the extent to which assistance may alter the incentives to undertake particular economic activities.
The estimates relate to Commonwealth assistance only. The coverage of forms of assistance has improved over time and the most recent series includes assistance via tariffs, quantitative import restrictions, production bounties, certain export incentives, marketing support arrangements, input subsidies, By-law (or Commercial Tariff Concession Orders), duty-drawback and excise. Several measures including anti-dumping procedures, government procurement and offsets and partnerships for development programs are excluded because they are difficult to quantify.
While a wide range of non-tariff measures have been employed from time to time, tariffs have dominated, providing over 80 per cent of measured assistance to manufacturing outputs in 1983-84. With the subsequent removal of quotas and some bounties, tariffs accounted for over 90 per cent of assistance by 1989-90 and this trend is expected to continue to 2000-01.(19)
The trend in the average effective rate of assistance for the manufacturing sector is provided in Figure 1. The average nominal and effective rates of assistance for the total manufacturing sector, and for three of the more highly protected industries (textiles, clothing and footwear and motor vehicles and parts), are shown in Table 2.

|
Average Nominal Rate of Assistance on Outputs |
Average Effective Rate of Assistance |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
Total Manufact-uring |
Textiles |
Clothing & Footwear |
Motor Vehicles & parts |
Total Manufact-uring |
Textiles |
Clothing & Footwear |
Motor Vehicles & parts |
|
|
1968-69 |
24 |
25 |
53 |
35 |
36 |
43 |
97 |
50 |
1971-72 Series |
|
1969-70 |
23 |
24 |
51 |
35 |
36 |
42 |
94 |
49 |
|
|
1970-71 |
23 |
24 |
50 |
35 |
36 |
42 |
91 |
50 |
|
|
1971-72 |
22 |
25 |
49 |
34 |
35 |
45 |
86 |
49 |
|
|
1972-73 |
22 |
25 |
50 |
34 |
35 |
45 |
88 |
49 |
|
|
1973-74 |
17 |
19 |
36 |
26 |
27 |
35 |
64 |
38 |
|
|
1974-75 |
15 |
20 |
42 |
29 |
27 |
39 |
87 |
54 |
1974-75 Series |
|
1975-76 |
16 |
23 |
47 |
34 |
28 |
50 |
99 |
73 |
|
|
1976-77 |
15 |
24 |
62 |
32 |
27 |
51 |
141 |
67 |
|
|
1977-78 |
15 |
26 |
64 |
34 |
26 |
57 |
149 |
79 |
|
|
1977-78 |
15 |
24 |
64 |
38 |
23 |
47 |
141 |
73 |
1977-78 Series |
|
1978-79 |
15 |
24 |
65 |
42 |
24 |
47 |
143 |
81 |
|
|
1979-80 |
15 |
27 |
63 |
46 |
23 |
51 |
135 |
89 |
|
|
1980-81 |
15 |
28 |
63 |
50 |
23 |
55 |
140 |
96 |
|
|
1981-82 |
16 |
26 |
82 |
53 |
25 |
54 |
204 |
108 |
|
|
1982-83 |
16 |
25 |
85 |
54 |
25 |
54 |
220 |
110 |
|
|
1982-83 |
13 |
23 |
69 |
50 |
21 |
68 |
192 |
126 |
1983-84 Series |
|
1983-84 |
13 |
23 |
78 |
51 |
22 |
69 |
227 |
135 |
|
|
1984-85 |
13 |
25 |
78 |
49 |
22 |
75 |
250 |
143 |
|
|
1985-86 |
12 |
23 |
88 |
40 |
20 |
72 |
148 |
125 |
|
|
1986-87 |
12 |
23 |
64 |
28 |
19 |
68 |
176 |
92 |
|
|
1987-88 |
11 |
22 |
64 |
27 |
19 |
65 |
174 |
88 |
|
|
1988-89 |
10 |
24 |
65 |
26 |
17 |
72 |
171 |
72 |
|
|
1989-90 |
9 |
23 |
65 |
27 |
16 |
72 |
173 |
65 |
|
|
1990-91 |
9 |
21 |
65 |
25 |
15 |
68 |
176 |
60 |
|
|
1990-91 |
8 |
18 |
63 |
26 |
14 |
51 |
113 |
48 |
1989-90 Series |
|
1991-92 |
8 |
16 |
52 |
24 |
13 |
46 |
92 |
45 |
|
|
1992-93 |
7 |
14 |
42 |
22 |
12 |
41 |
73 |
41 |
|
|
1993-94 |
6 |
12 |
37 |
20 |
10 |
37 |
65 |
38 |
|
|
1994-95 |
5 |
11 |
34 |
19 |
9 |
33 |
60 |
35 |
|
|
1995-96 |
5 |
10 |
31 |
17 |
8 |
27 |
56 |
31 |
|
|
1996-97 |
4 |
9 |
29 |
15 |
6 |
25 |
52 |
28 |
|
|
2000-01 |
3 |
6 |
19 |
10 |
5 |
17 |
34 |
19 |
|
|
Source: Industry Commission, 'Assistance to agricultural and manufacturing industries', Information Paper, March 1995. |
|||||||||
The time series data indicate the following trends in the level of assistance afforded to the Australian manufacturing sector over the past 30 years:
Figure 2: Average effective rates of assistance to manufacturing PMV and TCF, 1990-91 to 2000-01

Source: Productivity Commission, Trade and Assistance Review 1997-98
By the year 2000-01, it is expected that the average protection afforded the manufacturing sector will be reduced to a three per cent nominal rate and a five per cent effective rate. This level would probably be of little concern if it was uniform across industries but it remains far from uniform with clothing and footwear, and to a lesser extent, motor vehicles and textiles, receiving well above average assistance. As noted above the tariff debate with respect to these three industries continues to be hotly debated.
Anti-Dumping and Countervailing Measures
The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade allows Member countries to apply anti-dumping measures on imports of a good with an export price below its normal value in the supplier's home market, if such imports cause or threaten to cause material injury to the domestic industry. In addition, the WTO Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (1995) allows Members to apply countervailing duties where exports benefiting from certain forms of subsidies cause or threaten to cause material injury or serious prejudice to a domestic industry.
Like tariffs and other measures which raise the price of imports, anti-dumping and countervailing measures may restrict competition, protect domestic industry and impose higher costs on domestic consumers.
Anti-dumping and countervailing activity in Australia has shown considerable fluctuation since the mid 1980s. Four phases are evident in the number of new cases initiated. New cases fell from 56 in 1985-86 to 21 in 1988-89, rose to a peak of 88 cases in the 1991-92 recession and then declined sharply to a mere six cases in 1994-95. The number of new cases has increased since then to 36 cases in 1997-98.(20)
A major cause of these fluctuations is the business cycle. In the past, requests from industry for anti-dumping measures increased significantly in periods of low manufacturing company profits and fell in periods of greater prosperity. Hence the Asian crisis, and the expected slowdown in domestic demand, may add to pressures for anti-dumping measures in the year ahead.
There have been important changes to anti-dumping policy and administration over the past ten years. Following a review by Professor Gruen,(21) a number of changes including the introduction of sunset periods for anti-dumping action and establishment of the Anti-Dumping Authority were introduced in 1988. The overall impact of these measures was to reduce the scope for providing assistance to local industry via the anti-dumping arrangements.
The Howard Government came to office with a commitment to improve existing countervailing and anti-dumping procedures to ensure Australian producers are not disadvantaged. Following the Willett Review(22), the legislation was amended and a new scheme became effective on 24 July 1998. The key changes to the policy were:
The move to a single stage investigation by Customs-compared with the previous preliminary review by Customs and a separate review of the positive preliminary findings by the Anti-Dumping Authority-will streamline the administration of anti-dumping and countervailing actions. Such actions will continue to be subject to a five year sunset clause. The Government's scheduled review of anti-dumping and countervailing regulation under the Competition Principles Agreement has been postponed to allow for full implementation of the new arrangements.
On the international scene, new anti-dumping and countervailing actions stood at 225 cases in 1998 and this number appears to have stabilised in recent years. However the traditional anti-dumping users, notably the United States, European Union, Australia and Canada, remain major users, but there has been a surge in use by developing countries with South Africa, Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, India and Korea being increasingly active users.(23)
Australia appears to have accounted for six to eight per cent of the anti-dumping cases initiated internationally in recent years. Relative to its share of world trade (less than one per cent), Australia continues to be one of the more frequent users of anti-dumping measures. The recent streamlining of the administrative process for anti-dumping action in Australia may encourage Australian industry to pursue this course of action.
Estimated costs of protection
The Industry Commission provides the following measures of the subsidy, and consumer tax, equivalents of the tariffs and other protective measures applied to manufactures.
The continuing importance of the more highly assisted sectors is evident in Table 3. In terms of 'net subsidy equivalent', TCF and PMV together accounted for half of the manufacturing sector total in 1996-97. By 2000, the share of these industries is estimated to fall to 40 per cent.(25) The level of assistance paid by the consumer is particularly evident in the figures on 'consumer tax equivalent' per passenger motor vehicle of $3400 in 1996 and dropping to $2100 by 2000. This reduction in the consumer tax equivalent of $1300 per vehicle should be translated into a corresponding drop in average Australian motor vehicle prices.
Table 3: Subsidy and Consumer Tax Equivalents of Assistance to Manufacturing and Key Sectors
|
Gross subsidy equivalent $m |
Net subsidy equivalent $m |
Consumer tax equivalent $m |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Manufacturing sector |
||||
|
1971-72 |
21 273 |
14 182 |
na |
|
|
1989-90 |
15 620 |
10 230 |
8 649 |
|
|
1996-97 |
6570 |
4001 |
na |
|
|
2000-01 |
5553 |
3322 |
3967 |
|
|
Textiles |
||||
|
1971-72 |
803 |
531 |
na |
|
|
1989-90 |
808 |
608 |
348 |
|
|
1996-97 |
379 |
292 |
na |
|
|
2000-01 |
262 |
196 |
161 |
|
|
Clothing and Footwear |
||||
|
1971-72 |
1641 |
1209 |
na |
|
|
1989-90 |
1750 |
1410 |
2032 |
|
|
1996-97 |
801 |
649 |
na |
|
|
2000-01 |
531 |
428 |
964 |
|
|
Passenger motor vehicles |
||||
|
1996 |
1140 |
na |
1750 |
|
|
2000 |
na |
na |
1081 |
|
na = not available
Sources: Industry Commission, 'Assistance to Agricultural and Manufacturing Industries', Information Paper March 1995, p. 211 and Industry Commission, 'The Automotive Industry', Report No. 58, 26 May 1997, volume 1, pp. 252-253.
The cost of assistance estimates can be used to illustrate the very high cost involved in maintaining assistance in the most highly protected industries in order to support employment in them. In clothing and footwear, for example, employment in 1991 was about 55 000 and the net subsidy equivalent of assistance was $1200 million or more than $22 000 per employee. This exceeded the average wage in the industry of $21 000.(26)
Estimated benefits from trade liberalisation
The reduction in the subsidy, and consumer tax, equivalents of industry assistance shown above provides one indicator of the benefits of trade liberalisation. In the past 30 years, the subsidy equivalent of assistance to the manufacturing sector has declined by about 75 per cent. This reflects a corresponding reduction in the transfer of resources from the unprotected sectors of the economy to the protected manufacturing sector.
The above measures, however, do not indicate the full net benefits from trade liberalisation. They do not incorporate the indirect or second round effects which flow from the behavioural responses of producers and consumers to the assistance induced changes in relative prices. The measures do not include general equilibrium effects such as the possible impact on the exchange rate, and most importantly, the impact of trade liberalisation on intra-firm efficiency. Conversely, they do not include adjustment costs such as structural unemployment, retraining costs and unused capacity.
The Economic Planning Advisory Commission in 1996 undertook a quite different approach to measuring the gains from tariff reform and other micro-economic reforms. The approach compares Australia's economic performance with that of 13 other OECD countries and seeks to incorporate the 'dynamic' gains to firms arising from greater exposure of the economy to international competition. The results suggest that the longer-term dynamic gains from policies such as tariff reductions may be as much as ten times the static gains from better resource allocation.(27)
This section provides a few facts on the use of tariffs, non-tariff barriers and budgetary assistance in other countries. These are provided mainly for purposes of comparison with Australia's experience. Only selected material is presented and this does not convey the history of industry policy in these countries.
Industrial Tariffs
Trade liberalisation in manufactured products has been achieved in most industrialised countries over the post-war period. The main driving force behind this remarkable achievement has been the multinational trade negotiations under the auspices of the General agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), which celebrated its 50th birthday in 1998. It started as a club of 23 countries committed to cutting tariffs on trade between member countries. Today it has a membership of 134 countries and with more than 30 countries, including China and Russia, seeking to join. GATT has implemented eight rounds of global trade talks, each involving more countries and taking trade liberalisation further than the last.
Figure 3: Industrial Tariffs and Volume of Trade in GATT Member Economies
Source: World Trade Organisation, Trading into the Future, 1995 and Annual Report 1997.
The results in terms of tariff cuts and trade growth have been spectacular (Figure 3). The average level of tariffs in industrialised countries is now less than four per cent, one tenth of their level in 1948. This has been associated with a strong growth in specialisation and in the share of output traded. Over the 1950-96 period, world output of manufactures grew 9-fold, while world trade in manufactures rose 31-fold.(28)
NTBs include countervailing and anti-dumping duties, voluntary export restraints, subsidies which sustain loss making enterprises in operation, technical barriers to trade and obstacles to the establishment and provision of services. NTBs are less transparent than tariffs and there is no general measure of the restrictiveness of such barriers. The OECD, however, does monitor the frequency and coverage of NTBs and these measures indicate a significant reduction in their usage in developed countries since 1988 (Table 4).
Table 4: Non-Tariff Barriers in OECD Countries
|
Frequency ratioa |
Import coverage ratiob |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1988 |
1993 |
1996 |
1988 |
1993 |
1996 |
||
|
United States |
25.5 |
22.9 |
16.8 |
16.7 |
17.0 |
7.7 |
|
|
European Union |
26.6 |
23.7 |
19.1 |
13.2 |
11.1 |
6.7 |
|
|
Japan |
13.1 |
12.2 |
10.7 |
8.6 |
8.1 |
7.4 |
|
|
Canada |
11.1 |
11.0 |
10.4 |
5.7 |
4.5 |
4.0 |
|
|
Australia |
3.4 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
8.9 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
|
|
New Zealand |
14.1 |
0.4 |
0.8 |
11.5 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
|
Source: OECD, Indicators of Tariff & Non-tariff Trade Barriers, Update 1997, pp. 53 and 56.
The OECD in June 1999 noted:
While the level of tariffs and certain quantitative import controls have declined and are programmed to fall further, there are concerns that non-tariff barriers to trade in general (NTBs) may be gaining greater importance as a means of protecting domestic producers of goods and services and impeding access to international markets.(29)
The OECD makes particular reference to two forms of NTB which appear to be on the increase. It notes that a rising proportion of trade disputes concern technical barriers to trade in the human health and safety area such as bans on imports into Europe of hormone-fed beef and genetically modified organisms. The other area of concern is anti-dumping actions which have been referred to above.
The OECD has started to monitor what it terms 'public support to industry' for its member countries. However the latest (1998) report provides information for the OECD group of countries only for the years 1989 to 1993, although information for later years is provided for a number of countries.(30)
More recent information is available for the European Union countries for what is termed 'State aid to industry' in a report published by the Commission of the European Communities.(31) The report notes that the competition provisions of the EC Treaty include Community rules on State aid. It is recognised that State aid may be used for common interest purposes such as to redress the effects of market failures but that it can also be used to frustrate free competition and provide the same effect as tariff barriers. The aim of the report is to provide transparency and reinforce an open policy on the control and use of State aid.
Table 5: State Aid to the Manufacturing Sector in the European Community.
Annual values in constant (1996) prices
|
|
1993 |
1994 |
1995 |
1996 |
1997 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Value of State aid (million euro) |
44766 |
41332 |
39328 |
35367 |
34400 |
|
In per cent of value added |
3.8 |
3.5 |
3.2 |
2.9 |
2.6 |
|
In euro per person employed |
1540 |
1457 |
1385 |
1269 |
1236 |
|
$A equivalent (assuming 1 euro =$A1.7) |
2678 |
2477 |
2355 |
2157 |
2101 |
The European Community comprises the 12 Member Countries as at 1993.
Source: Commission of the European Communities, Seventh Survey on State Aid in the European Union in the Manufacturing and Certain Other Sectors, 30 March 1999, pp. 5 and 6.
The main types of State aid included in Table 5 are grants and tax exemptions but it also covers equity participation, soft loans, tax deferrals and guarantees. The clear message from the Table is that State aid to the manufacturing sector in the European Union has declined steadily over the 1993-97 period. It declined by 23 per cent in terms of total value, and by 20 per cent in terms of value per person employed, over this period.
Other features of State aid to manufacturing in the European Union were that it was highest (relative to value added) in Italy and Greece and lowest in the United Kingdom, Sweden and the Netherlands. In terms of function, over 50 per cent of State aid was directed at regional objectives and 31 per cent at horizontal objectives such as R&D, environment, small and medium enterprises, trade and energy savings. Only 12 per cent of State aid was directed at particular industries. For shipbuilding and steel, the granting of aid was subject to European Commission regulations, namely the Shipbuilding Directive and the Steel Aid Codes.
Australia has moved a long way towards trade liberalisation, with average tariff levels now close to five per cent. While Australia lagged behind the tariff reform process in many developed countries in the 1960s and 1970s, it has now caught up and has average tariff levels comparable to those in our main OECD trading partners and a significantly lower usage of non-tariff barriers.
The start of the trade liberalisation process in the late 1960s and early 1970s was a slow and hard fought battle to persuade governments, industry and unions that the move to a more open trading economy was in Australia's best interests. The process almost ran off the rails in the late 1970s and early 1980s with the massive increase in protection for the PMV and TCF industries. The Hawke/Keating Governments, with the Button Plans for structural adjustment in the key mature industries, made major steps in government-industry cooperation and in creating support for, or at least acceptance of, trade liberalisation. The strongest progress towards trade liberalisation occurred in the latter part of the 1980s and through the 1990s up to the year 2000.
This historical review suggests that if Australia is to achieve the APEC goal of free trade by 2010, the end of the trade liberalisation process may also be a hard fought battle. It will centre on the PMV and TCF, and possibly several other smaller industries. Significant policy adjustments will be required in these industries in the latter half of the next decade, following the lifting of tariff freezes for PMV and TCF. The recent re-emergence of protectionist pressures both in Australia and overseas, and the failure of APEC countries to reach agreement on key trade liberalisation proposals, will contribute to an uncertain future.
With the decline in tariffs, assistance to industry via the Budget is likely to become increasingly important. This is consistent with the role of government becoming more that of a facilitator of change in the private sector rather than a controller or regulator of change in its own right.
Assistance to industry via the Budget needs to be an integrated package of measures with a clear set of objectives. It needs to move away from the image of being an ad hoc group of incentives which is constantly changing to meet the needs of sectional industry interests on the one hand and Budget cost cutters on the other. One way of achieving a greater objectivity, and a greater constancy, in Budgetary assistance to industry is to reduce the assistance for industry selective measures and increase the assistance for general measures to facilitate education, innovation and best practice.
The brief comparison in the Paper of Budgetary assistance to industry in the European Union compared with Australia indicates a similar ratio of assistance to value added in manufacturing in the two regions. However Australia continues to direct a much larger share of its Budgetary assistance to selected industries while in the European Union countries, regional objectives are the largest single basis for funding. With rural and regional issues attracting renewed interest in Australia, there may be increased calls for industry assistance to meet regional objectives.
Some suggested priorities for government assistance to industry in the areas of innovation, education and training and encouragement of the high technology industries are discussed in Industry Policy in Australia(32).