Research Paper 22 1998-99

New South Wales Election 1999

Scott Bennett
Politics and Public Administration Group

Gerard Newman
Statistics Group
8 June 1999

Symbols and Abbreviations

Introduction

The 1999 New South Wales election saw the Labor Government of Bob Carr increase its small majority in the Legislative Assembly to one that should enable it to govern comfortably over the next four years. Although the Government does not control the upper house, the Legislative Council election has produced a house that will probably be more amenable to Labor legislation than its predecessor. On the Coalition side, the Liberal Party has been seriously weakened and it may take some time before new leader, Kerry Chikarovski, is in a position to challenge the Government electorally. Although the National Party vote declined, the party still holds the lion's share of rural seats.

This paper provides a brief outline of the election campaign, discusses the results, notes the seats of significance, and speculates about the position of the parties in the immediate future.

New South Wales goes to the polls

The 1999 New South Wales election was held on 27 March, the date at which the fixed four-year term of the parliament ended. The Legislative Assembly had been reduced from 99 to 93 seats, the second reduction since the election of 1988. Fifteen electorates had been abolished:

Nine new electorates were created (notional sitting party given):(1)

The electorate of Murwillumbah had been renamed Tweed (NP).

Also on 27 March voters elected 21 Members of the 42-member Legislative Council for a term of eight years.

Background to the election: leadership

In his seminal work on Australian voting behaviour, Don Aitkin asserted that, 'There can be no doubt that the electorate prizes unity in its parties', and went on to note that the electorate 'is alert to any signs of party or cabinet disunity'.(2) Despite this, there have been a number of occasions when State parties have moved, on the eve of a State election, to remove a leader deemed to be leading the party to electoral defeat. The Liberals' removal of Tom Lewis (1976) and John Mason (1981) (both NSW) and Dick Hamer (1981) (Vic), and the Nationals' deposing of Mike Ahern (1989) (Qld) have been the most significant in the past two decades. Typically, poor opinion poll results are cited as justification of such moves against a leader. A variant was the removal of Labor's Doug Lowe (1981) (Tas), an event which helped precipitate a premature election. Aitkin's warning was relevant to all cases-the party that had made this late change lost the forthcoming election.(3)

In the cases mentioned, the date of the following election was uncertain, though close. In New South Wales in 1999, the parliament had a fixed term, so the parties knew the election date of 27 March. Despite this, as late as 11 December 1998, Liberal leader Peter Collins was forced from office by the supporters of Kerry Chikarovski. Just over a month later, on 14 January 1999, Ian Armstrong was replaced by George Souris as leader of the National Party. This was just over ten weeks from polling day, quite long enough, said Souris, to mount a successful campaign.

The Government was certainly vulnerable. In 1995 it won office with just 41.3 per cent of the first preference vote to the Coalition's 43.9 per cent, the lowest winning total since 1927, and with less than half of the two-party preferred vote. It won 50 of the Legislative Assembly's 99 seats. Within a few months its popularity had fallen to below 40 per cent, following its breaking of a promise to remove motorway tolls in western Sydney. Soon after the March 1996 Commonwealth election its popularity had dropped further to barely 30 per cent in the wake of the change in location of the Governor's residence and of the controversial dismissal of the head of the Department of Community Services. Between mid-1996 and early 1997 the Coalition under Collins had a healthy lead in the polls, though the Premier's own popularity was higher than the Liberal leader's. Labor only really began to match the Coalition during 1998 and throughout the year there was little in the poll margins.(4)

The campaign battle

It is a matter of fine judgment how early/late a party should issue its policies prior to polling day. Labor portrayed itself as 'getting on with the job' of government and not prepared to be diverted from this until the formal launch of its policies on 14 March, a stance that was not seriously challenged. The Liberals, by contrast, came under media pressure to unveil their policies right from the election of Chikarovski and were criticised for many weeks for being 'policy-free', despite the Liberal promise to reveal policies at the formal opening of its campaign-on the same day as Labor. Despite this apparent embargo on policies, both sides did gradually make clear some of their policies in the weeks prior to the policy launches.

There is a settled pattern to most State elections. Governments stand on their record, make a plea for being given another term 'to finish the job' and criticise their opponents for the extravagance of their claims. Oppositions have a tendency to produce a 'shopping list' of promises, as they seek to put together a set of policies broad enough to attract a majority of voters.(5) This election was no different, with the unusual aspect being the Coalition's public recognition that its promises would cost more than those made by the Government. In fact, it was forecast that the Coalition promises would see a Coalition government outspend Labor by a margin of five to one, a margin not disputed by either of the Coalition partners.(6)

As a consequence, there were relatively few promises made by the Government, though it spoke of more money for emergency services and for hospitals in western Sydney and in the country. By comparison, the Coalition emphasised an environment energy fund, more money for hospitals, a rural health boost, more dental services and a plan to scrap the controversial hotel bed tax. It made wide-ranging education promises and pledged to remove the controversial land tax on land worth more than $1.1m. The policy that caught most attention was a plan to privatise the production of electricity and to give each family $1000 cash or $1100 in shares from the proceeds.

In a move reminiscent of Coalition policies in the Wran years, much emphasis was placed on law and order, presumably in response to survey findings-a Herald AC Nielsen poll gave law and order as the issue that concerned the highest number of voters (23 per cent).(7) What was different on this occasion, however, was the Government's obvious determination not to be outbid by its rivals. Whereas the Coalition emphasised such matters as the employment of 2,500 extra police, the dedication of police to crime 'hot spots', the tougher treatment of graffiti crime and the establishment of 'grid' sentencing under a policy of 'zero tolerance', the Government spoke of being tougher on paedophilia and establishing new sentencing guidelines in areas of serious crime. Some of this law and order vote-bidding involved some controversial ideas: the Coalition proposal to gaol first-time graffiti vandals, for instance.

Oppositions often struggle to catch the campaign headlines-thus we have the heavy emphasis on staged media events and of the ubiquitous 'photo-opportunity'. In an effort to be heard, policy gimmicks are often thrown up to catch attention. The Coalition had its share: an 'employee ombudsman' to work to move employees to individual contracts and hence reduce union power, was an example. Others included a 10-day wilderness trek as an alternative to expulsion from school, and a 'community cadet scheme', which proposed a work-force of uniformed teenagers undertaking volunteer community work wherever required. The most controversial was a plan to force young offenders to wear fluorescent jackets branded 'Community service', while undertaking compulsory community work. This was a proposal which produced criticism from the ACT Liberal Chief Minister, Kate Carnell, herself critical of a similar shaming exercise in Canberra a few years earlier.(8)

Carnell's intervention was one of a number of distractions during the campaign that Chikarovski could have done without. Some were of potential importance, such as the difficulties caused by errors in the detail surrounding the electricity privatisation proposal, or of threats by MPs Peter Blackmore (Lib) and Mark Kersten (NP) not to support the legislation in the Parliament, or the National Party calls in late January to end the Coalition. The failure of talk-back radio hosts, such as Alan Jones, to wholeheartedly accept the Liberal leader, was another frustration. Three days before polling day, New South Wales Liberal director, Remo Nogarotto, was forced to apologise to former leader Peter Collins, for describing his leadership as 'three years of public humiliation'. Rather more bizarre was the need to respond to publicity given to call-back radio claims that the Liberal Party had touched up its Chikarovski television advertisements to make her eyes blue in colour.(9)

Governments can have a difficult task in breaking through voter resistance as they attempt to increase voter support, something that the Carr Government, with its three-seat majority, was keen to achieve. It was reported that Labor's strategy was to run a 'positive' campaign, with four main features. There was to be an apology from the Premier for any mistakes that had been made, followed by the claim that Labor was 'achieving more than you realise' and then a restatement of its achievements. Overriding everything else, the Leader of the Opposition was not to be attacked.(10) This strategy was adhered to, making it difficult for the Opposition to engage with the Government-the Premier even refusing a television debate with Chikarovski.

The image, then, was of a government in control, smoothly moving toward victory over an unsettled opponent, yet there were various problems which seemed to argue against an inevitable victory. Labor's land tax support brought heated opposition from HALT (Home-Owners Against Land Tax), its native vegetation and water management legislation had antagonised country interests and it even had to face front-page revelations concerning cockroaches infesting a major Sydney hospital in the middle of the campaign.

Quite close to polling day, media discussion tended to talk of a possible narrow parliamentary margin.(11) To an important extent, though, such predictions overlooked the evidence of the opinion polls. Even though the State-wide figures for the parties remained reasonably close, the election seemed to be won quite a long way out from polling day when opinion polls were indicating an overwhelming Government lead in Sydney. In mid-March, for instance, the Herald AC Nielsen poll had city voters favouring Labor by 13 percentage points, whereas Newspoll's State-wide margin was just two points.(12) If the former poll's figures were duplicated in Sydney on election day, and if the normally Labor-supporting Newcastle and Illawarra electorates voted for the Government as well, then Labor was likely to win comfortably and votes in rural areas were likely to be irrelevant to the result.

Legislative Assembly

The outcome

Labor's vote of 42.2 per cent barely rose from the 1995 figure (41.3%). The party won 55 of the 93 seats, compared with 50 of 99 seats in 1995. This was the third-lowest Labor vote since 1950-in fact, its four lowest post-War results have been in the past four elections, in which it has averaged just 40.3 per cent of first preferences. The heady days of 1953 when the party gained well over half the vote (55%), or 1978 (57.8%) or 1981 (55.7%), seemed long past, suggesting that the newspaper headline, 'Victory echoes ALP's Wranslide', was based on a shallow understanding of what has happened to the major parties in New South Wales.(13)

Tables 1 and 2a suggest that the opinion polls showing a clear Labor lead in the capital were accurate. Labor's 45.2 per cent was 13.1 per cent ahead of the Liberal Party, while in the provincial areas the gap was a massive 25.7 per cent. All but four of Labor's Assembly seats were won in the conurbation running from Newcastle through Sydney to the Illawarra, and bordered by the Blue Mountains.

The seats that 'changed hands' (based on notional allocation following the redistribution) were as follows:

Liberal losses to ALP	Georges River, Maitland, Menai, Miranda, Ryde, South Coast, Strathfield
Liberal loss to NP	Burrinjuck
National losses to ALP	Murray-Darling, Tweed
National losses to Independent	Dubbo, Northern Tablelands

Although Labor's vote remained static, its main rivals did not fare as well. The Liberal Party's 24.8 per cent (-8.0%) was the party's lowest New South Wales vote since its formation, even lower than its 27 per cent in the first Wran re-election (1978). Proportionally, its 20 seats (21% of the Assembly) was its fourth-worst effort on record. The National Party's 8.9 per cent of primaries (-2.2%) was its third-lowest effort since the 1920s, but its 13 seats out of a total of 93 (14%) was not markedly out of alignment with previous years-it held 17 per cent of seats after the previous election. The total Coalition vote (33.7%) was a great deal less than its 49.1 per cent in 1968, or its 49.5 per cent in 1988.

The combined major party vote declined to 75.9 per cent, a drop of 9.3 per cent on the 1995 result, the poorest such figure since the collapse of the United Australia Party prior to the 1944 election. The 1976 major party vote of 96.1 per cent was but a distant memory. The 1999 figure reflected recent voter shifts elsewhere in Australian elections.(14) Between them, the Greens, Australian Democrats and Pauline Hanson's One Nation Party (PHON) gained nearly 15 per cent of the vote. Lesser groups and independents also ate into the major party vote, securing nearly 10 per cent. Independent MLAs retained Bligh and Tamworth and independent candidates won Northern Tablelands, Dubbo and Manly, the last of which had been held by an independent.

The PHON vote of 7.5 per cent was lower than the party's New South Wales vote of 9 per cent in the 1998 Commonwealth election, and well behind the 22.7 per cent gained in the Queensland election. Despite this, all three elections have indicated that there might be a core PHON vote in some rural areas. In Barwon, Bega, Dubbo, Murray-Darling and Oxley, for instance, the party's vote ranged between 13.0 and 20.5 per cent. The rural PHON vote seems to be higher north and north-west of Sydney than elsewhere in the State. There might also be a core PHON support in some seats on the fringe of urban areas, that was seen in Cessnock, Charlestown, Port Stephens, Swansea and Wallsend, where the vote ranged from 10.2 to 16.1 per cent. If the next Commonwealth election is close, PHON preferences may well be very important in a significant number of Queensland and New South Wales seats.

Electorates of interest

It is rare that a local issue becomes a possible factor in a national election, but the controversial question of the proposed Albury by-pass featured in the 1998 Commonwealth election. National leader, Tim Fischer, bore the brunt of local unhappiness over this issue in his seat of Farrer, suffering a reduction in his first preference vote of 13.4 per cent. This issue was still of importance in the New South Wales election, with independent candidate, Claire Douglas, campaigning on this issue against the Liberals' Ian Glachen. Douglas won over one-third of first preferences, but despite appearing to have won on election night, lost the seat on preferences by 687 votes.

Bathurst was the Government's most marginal seat, with a margin of just 0.6 per cent. With the sitting member not contesting the seat, the National Party believed it had a good chance of victory. Despite Labor's generally mediocre rural vote, Gerard Martin enjoyed an increase in primary votes of 5.7 per cent, and won on first preferences (51.0 per cent).

The seat of Burrinjuck was held for the ALP by the Sheehans, father and son, from 1950 until 1988, when it was won for the Liberals by Alby Schultz. With Schultz elected to the House of Representatives in October 1998, Burrinjuck became a battle between the three major parties, with Gloria Schultz attempting to replace her husband. Despite trailing Labor's Michael McManus by 7.6 per cent on first preferences, Katrina Hodgkinson (NP) eventually won by 817 votes. Schultz gained a vote of 16.7 per cent.

Former MHR for Page (1990-6) and Labor's Minister for Rural Affairs, Harry Woods, won the usually safe National Party seat of Clarence in a surprise 1996 by-election victory. The general press consensus seemed to be that the Nationals would regain the seat in 1999, and so it appeared during much of the count. At the end of counting, however, Woods (36.9% of first preferences) defeated Grafton councillor, Steve Cansdell (25.4%), by just 143 votes.

Dubbo was supposed to be the eighth-safest Opposition seat. Held by the Nationals' Gerry Peacocke since 1981, it was not the type of seat expected to fall. With Peacocke's resignation, Tony McGrane, Mayor of Dubbo for the previous eight years, temporarily stood down from office to nominate as an independent candidate, one of three high-profile mayors to contest seats in the election. After a re-count, McGrane won the seat by just 14 votes, the closest result in the State.

Opposition spokesperson on the environment, Marie Ficarra, was one of three Liberal front-benchers to lose their seats. She had been a member of the Legislative Assembly since 1995, but suffered in the 1998 redistribution when her 1995 margin of 8 per cent was trimmed to the point where a swing of two per cent would see her defeated. Georges River thus became the third most marginal Opposition seat. In an election where Labor performed best in Sydney seats, it came as no surprise that Ficarra was swept away by a two-party preferred swing against her of 8.3 per cent.

Gosford was one of the key seats that the Neville Wran-led Labor Party won in 1976 when the party returned after 11 years in the political wilderness. The seat has been held by the Liberal Party's Chris Hartcher since the Coalition victory in 1988. On this occasion, Hartcher was challenged by Barry Cohen, the 63-year-old former Labor member for the Commonwealth seat of Robertson (1969-90). Cohen had the reputation of being an excellent campaigner, but on this occasion his swing of 3.2 per cent was not enough to overcome Hartcher's cushion of 5.5 per cent.

Peter Blackmore held the Coalition's most marginal seat, where a swing of less than one per cent would see him lose to Labor's John Price. Alert to the unpopularity of electricity privatisation in an electorate where many of the State's power workers resided, Blackmore had stated that he could not support privatisation legislation, were his party to move in that direction. Blackmore limited the swing to just 1.9 per cent, but lost his seat after a tense period of counting, by a margin of 755 votes.

After a long history as a solid non-Labor seat, Manly broke the mould with the election of an independent in 1962. The seat reverted to the Liberals in 1968, went to Labor ten years later, back to the Liberals in 1984 and to another independent, Peter Macdonald, in 1991. With the retirement of Macdonald, this was seen as a Liberal must-win seat if Labor was to be turned out of office. The Opposition attempted to make this certain with a promise to construct a tunnel under the Spit Bridge. The McDonald-supported independent, David Barr (30.2%), trailed Liberal candidate Darren Jones by 8.5 per cent on first preferences, but after the distribution of preferences won by 145 votes.

Ron Phillips, Liberal deputy leader and treasury spokesman, first won Miranda in 1984. He held the re-shaped electorate by a notional margin of 5.3 per cent after the redistribution. Media reports spoke of his having antagonised some voters over his role in the pre-selection battle for the federal seat of Cook, which ousted Stephen Mutch for Bruce Baird, but Phillips' future seemed assured. Despite this, Labor's Barry Collier led him on first preferences by 2.3 per cent, and won comfortably after the allocation of preferences with a vote of 52.3 per cent.

Monaro is a rural seat with an important urban segment in the city of Queanbeyan. Held by Labor during the Wran years, the National Party's Peter Cochran had turned it into a very safe Coalition seat, which required a swing of 16.3 per cent to fall to Labor. Following Cochran's resignation, Monaro was contested by the three major parties, PHON, the Greens and the high-profile mayor of Queanbeyan as an independent. The presence of Liberal and PHON candidates stripped the National first preference vote by 35.7 per cent, leaving Peter Webb trailing Labor's John Durst by 9.3 per cent. After a tense count, Webb won the seat by just 128 votes.

This very safe National seat had a 14.6 per cent cushion against a swing to Labor. The Nationals lost the seat, however, when their first preference vote fell by 18.7 per cent, with voters turning to Richard Torbay, three-term mayor of Armidale and foundation member of the Country Summit Alliance (see below).

The Liberal seat of Ermington held by Opposition transport spokesman, Michael Photios, and the Labor seat of Gladesville, held by John Watkins, were abolished in the redistribution. Both MLAs nominated for the new seat of Ryde, made up of voters from those two electorates as well as over 12,000 from Eastwood. Muddying the waters for Photios was the independent candidacy of former Liberal MLA for Gladesville (1988-95), Ivan Petch. Described as 'probably the best homeground campaigner in the business',(15) Photios was, nonetheless, defeated comfortably, barely winning one-third of the vote to his opponent's 44.1 per cent. Despite Liberal claims that the Petch campaign (8.5%) brought about their defeat, the combined Photios-Petch first preference tally was still two per cent behind the Labor vote.

Modern-day redistributions have the tendency to treat some sitting members quite roughly. Minister for Police Paul Whelan, MLA for Ashfield since 1976, found his seat abolished in the 1998 redistribution. Whelan unsuccessfully sought a safe seat, with his party effectively leaving him with little choice but to challenge Bruce MacCarthy in the Liberal seat of Strathfield, a seat which required a swing of 2.7 per cent. Reportedly pessimistic about his chances, Whelan campaigned vigorously, and won comfortably after leading his opponent by over 11 per cent on first preferences.

Tony Windsor has held this seat as an independent MLA since 1991. In this election his 69.4 per cent of first preferences was the highest in the State, and his after-preference vote was a remarkable 85.2 per cent.

Tweed was the re-named seat of Murwillumbah. With a notional margin of 2.2 per cent it was the Nationals' most marginal seat. The sitting member, Don Beck, had been MLA for Byron (1984-8), and Murwillumbah since 1988. The Labor Party had tried hard to defeat him in the past, but he had withstood each challenge. In 1999, Labor was represented by Neville Newell, MHR for Richmond from 1990, when he had defeated National's federal leader, Charles Blunt, until his defeat in 1996. That unexpected victory was regarded as a measure of how much this former solid National region had altered, with the influx of many new residents. This presumably aided Newell on this occasion, as he led the sitting member by 3.5 per cent on first preferences and 2.6 per cent at the end of counting.

Legislative Council

The Legislative Council election proved to be the most controversial since the first general election held in 1981. New South Wales upper house elections are conducted with the State used as a single electorate-as in Senate elections. When the Single Transferable Vote method of proportional representation is used, the larger the number of members of parliament to be elected from the single electorate, the easier it is for minor party and independent candidates to gain election. In half-Senate elections where six are to be elected, a candidate needs a quota of 14.3 per cent of first and later preferences to be elected; by contrast, in this election with 21 to be elected, a candidate needed just 4.5 per cent.

It was clear that many in the community had grasped the possibility that this created. With a total of only 30 candidates being run by the Labor, Liberal and National parties, 233 non-major party candidates nominated, creating the so-called 'tablecloth' ballot paper. While it is presumably the case that some candidates seriously sought election, it is also clear that many took the opportunity to use the election to gain publicity for their cause. Parties such as the Euthanasia Referendum Party, People Against Paedophiles, the No Badgerys Creek Airport Party and the Timbarra Clean Water Party were examples of groups using the occasion to put themselves before a State-wide audience. Others effectively ridiculed the whole exercise, forming groups with names that included the What's Doing? Party, the Three Day Weekend Party or Make Billionaires Pay More Tax!

With so many names on the ballot paper, and with the combined major party vote likely to be less than the Legislative Assembly return, it was clear that the major parties would fall well short of winning all Legislative Council seats. In the event, less than two-thirds of the vote (64.7 per cent) was cast for major party candidates, 11.2 per cent less than in the lower house election. Labor's vote of 37.3 per cent (+2 per cent) won it 8 seats and the Liberal/National ticket, which received a vote of 27.4 (-11.1 per cent) garnered 6 seats. The remaining seven were divided between familiar and unfamiliar parties and groups. Of the former, Pauline Hanson's One Nation, the Australian Democrats, the Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group) and The Greens all won a seat. The new parliamentary players included Reform the Legal System (whose 1 per cent may have been donkey-vote-dominated, the result of being on the left-hand end of the ballot paper), the Unity Party ('dedicated to maintaining and enhancing an Australia that is truly multicultural'(16)), and the Outdoor Recreation Party. The controversial PHON leader, David Oldfield, was third MLC elected, on a party vote of 6.3 per cent (2.3 more than the Democrats), but with few preferences flowing to the party PHON was unable to gain a second seat. The last MLC to be elected was the veteran, Fred Nile, of the Christian Democratic Party who had been first elected in 1981.

John Tingle-The Shooters Party, and A Better Future for Our Children, which were already represented in the Legislative Council, missed out on a second seat. The Tingle group received the seventh highest total of votes (1.7%) but did not receive enough preferences from other groups and parties to win a seat. The independent MLA for Tamworth, Tony Windsor, had played a key role in the creation of the Country Summit Alliance, a rural-based group seeking 'equity with the city'. Windsor spoke of the Alliance distributing 800,000 Legislative Council how-to-vote cards, and predicted that it would win 2-4 seats, but its nine-member ticket failed to secure even a single per cent of the vote, and no seats were won.(17) The convenor of Republic 2001/People First, Glenn Druery, gained publicity for his efforts to tie up the preferences of a large number of the tiny groups, leading David Nason of the Australian to write admiringly of his 'mastery of the political numbers game', which made Druery's election 'seemingly a formality'. The group's 3,076 votes (0.09%) suggested that Mr Druery forgot about the need to campaign for enough first preferences to make the securing of second preferences a relevant factor in the outcome.(18)

The Government thus had 16 of the 42 MLCs, 6 short of a majority, with the Coalition holding 13 seats, 9 of these held by the Liberal Party. The presence in the Legislative Council of Richard Jones (Ind), two Greens, an Australian Democrat, the Reform the Legal System, and A Better Future For Our Children possibly makes the Government's task of getting its legislation through the upper house slightly easier than in the previous parliament (see Table 7).

In the days after the Legislative Council election, there were criticisms made of 'parties' being able to win a seat on a miniscule vote.

Percentages for parties winning Legislative Council seats

Party	%
ALP	37.3
L/NP	27.4
PHON	6.3
AD	4.0
Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group)	3.2
The Greens	2.9
Reform the Legal System	1.0
Unity	1.0
Outdoor Recreation Party	0.2

There has been discussion about altering the electoral arrangements to make it much harder for such non-major party candidates to gain seats. Achieving such an outcome will be difficult. Although the three major parties have the numbers to push such legislation through the Parliament if they choose to combine forces, there would then have to be a referendum voted on by all electors. The result of such a referendum might depend upon how controversial the Legislative Council had been in the meantime.

The verdict

The Government

It has been noted of State politics that if strong governments appear to be in control of events, and if they appear more competent than their rivals, then they can often dig in for long periods.(19) This can be seen in New South Wales, which has had only four changes of government since 1941, and where governments have been able to entrench themselves: Labor from 1941 to 1965, the Coalition from 1965 to 1976 and Labor from 1976 to 1988. In addition, Labor has had a long-term edge over the Coalition, winning 14 of 20 elections since 1941. During that period, strong leadership from Premiers such as McKell (1941-47), Cahill (1951-9) and Wran (1976-86), which emphasised 'political astuteness and pragmatism', has made Labor Governments very difficult to defeat.(20)

This type of analysis also seems to help explain the Carr Government's return to power. The comfortable lead in the polls that Labor enjoyed throughout the campaign period,(21) suggests that the Sydney Morning Herald may have been close to the mark, when suggesting that the Premier retained his position, 'because of his Government's first-term record of generally competent management of the affairs of the State'.(22) Mike Steketee of the Weekend Australian described the Government as politically surefooted, being 'never loath to reverse an unpopular decision or argue that what was white last week was now black'. An important illustration of this had been the change of mind over the issue of privatisation of electricity production, a controversial proposal which had initially been favoured by both the Premier and the Treasurer.(23) Hugh Mackay has also noted that survey evidence suggested that many Sydney (as distinct from rural) voters were satisfied with the Government's performance: 'Sydney's buzzing, and that's good news for incumbent governments, both here [in New South Wales] and in Canberra'.(24)

The Coalition

Despite both new leaders talking about new directions and a revived sense of purpose for their parties, it is likely that the changes to the leadership simply signalled to voters a general unhappiness in Coalition ranks. Mackay suggested that the changes simply made each new leader look like a 'backstabber', and that they sent voters the message that the parties were desperate: 'When the Coalition parties changed the leaders of both their parties, they cut their own throats'.(25) In early 1999 the poll position had been close enough for Malcolm Mackerras to wonder if the parliamentary balance of power would be held by two independents. In less than two months, however, there was poll evidence of a growing voter resistance to the appeals of the Liberal leader. On March 2, for instance, the Sydney Morning Herald reported poll findings that gave Chikarovski an approval rating of just 28 per cent, a figure only one per cent higher than Peter Collins' lowest reading. The poll also suggested an increase in her disapproval rating by 17 per cent to 42 per cent.(26)

The Liberal leader had made heavy weather of some announcements. She was criticised for her threat made to the Governor of a forced return to living in Government House and her uncertainty over the details of the party's electricity privatisation policy seemed to suggest a lack of preparation. The Liberal Party was forced to remove five advertisements through errors and misstatements contained within them, further suggesting a party that was unprepared for the election battle, despite having known the election date, a point made by the Bulletin's Laurie Oakes.(27) This was a view held by the Prime Minister, who attributed his party's poor performance in his home State to the fact that the former leader and his front bench team had been 'out to lunch', when they should have been hard at work in the preparation of policy. (28)

Liberal views of the final result were varied. Remo Nogarotto spoke of the 'phenomenal' Chikarovski campaign, and the Prime Minister now spoke of the Liberal organisation having 'performed magnificently', yet Andrew Fraser MLA (NP) believed the leadership changes to have been fatal for the Coalition's chances. Most spectacularly, the Victorian Premier Kennett criticised the campaign and the change of leadership and suggested that both Chikarovski and Nogarotto should lose their positions.(29)

In May 1999 the Liberal Party announced a six week inquiry by federal director, Lynton Crosby, into the reasons for the party's defeat.

Various National Party members complained about the deleterious impact upon the Coalition campaign of three-cornered contests, once a staple part of Coalition campaigning, but much less reliable with the optional preferential voting method in use in New South Wales (and Queensland).(30) In this election there were seven cases. In the seats of Bathurst, where Labor won on first preferences, The Entrance, where the National vote was so low (9.5%) as to not be a factor, and Lismore, where Labor was well behind on first preferences, the three-cornered contest did not develop as the theory would suggest.

In Burrinjuck and Monaro, Labor was well ahead on first preferences and the Coalition votes (and others) helped pull the National candidate over the line. Although the three-cornered contest tactic was thus successful, it is certainly arguable that the National margin was much closer than it might have been had just the one Coalition candidate been standing. In Wagga Wagga the three-cornered contest worked perfectly. Labor topped the poll (26.3%) but the Liberal (25.4%) and National (22.9%) exchange of preferences produced a comfortable Liberal victory.

It was in Clarence, that National Party criticisms had most validity, for Minister Woods almost certainly retained the seat because of the three-cornered nature of the contest. The Liberal, Bill Day, had 7,794 votes before his exclusion, 7,004 of which had been Liberal first preferences. Of the 7,794 votes to be transferred, 2,358 (30.3%) exhausted.(31) If there had been just a single Coalition candidate, a clear majority of Liberal first preferences would have gone to the National Party candidate, Steve Cansdell. As Woods won by just 143 votes after the distribution of preferences, it is highly likely that the contest between Coalition partners was crucial in accounting for the result.

The future

Although the Labor vote was not particularly high (see Table 1), the party is well-placed as a result of the 1999 election, particularly as it dominates the all-important Sydney voting area. Thirty-four of its 55 seats are in the capital and these are buttressed by safe seats in the Illawarra, Newcastle and Central Coast regions. In 2003, a loss of 9 seats would see Labor lose control of the Assembly but this would leave the balance of power in the hands of independents. The Liberal and National Parties would only be certain of controlling the lower house in the following circumstances:

• If all independents retained their seats, 14 seats would need to be taken from Labor. This would require a two-party preferred vote in the 14 most marginal Labor seats of up to 9.7 per cent;
• If one independent seat was won, 13 seats would need to be taken from Labor. This would require a two-party preferred vote in the 13 most marginal Labor seats of up to 9.4 per cent;
• If two independent seats were won, 12 seats would need to be taken from Labor. This would require a two-party preferred vote in the 12 most marginal Labor seats of up to 8.4 per cent;
• If three independent seats were won, 11 seats would need to be taken from Labor. This would require a two-party preferred vote in the 11 most marginal Labor seats of up to 7.9 per cent;
• If four independent seats were won, 10 seats would need to be taken from Labor. This would require a two-party preferred vote in the 10 most marginal Labor seats of up to 7.5 per cent;
• If all five independent seats were won, 9 seats would need to be taken from Labor. This would require a two-party preferred vote in the 9 most marginal Labor seats of up to 6.6 per cent. This would also require, however, a massive increase in the National Party vote in Tamworth, an eventuality that would seem likely only in the absence of Tony Windsor.

In the election of 1978 the Coalition vote dropped by 9.4 per cent, while ten years later the Labor vote fell 10.3 per cent, so the shaking-loose of sufficient Labor votes over the next four years is not an impossible target. A steady performance by the second Carr Government would, however, make it very difficult to achieve.

The Liberal Party's position is on a par with its poor performances of 1978 and 1981. Thirteen of its 20 seats are in Sydney, with eleven of those on Sydney's north shore. Outside of the capital it holds Bega, Wagga Wagga and Albury, plus a few seats on the fringe of Sydney.

Country New South Wales is still dominated by the National Party, which holds 13 of 25 rural seats, with Dubbo and Clarence almost within its grasp. Its vote of 8.9 per cent is a reminder of the poor 7.9 per cent the party gained in New South Wales in the 1998 Commonwealth election, and must continue to be of concern to party members. Some voices, including former leader, Ian Armstrong, have called for the party to leave the Coalition, but George Souris has withstood such pressure for the time being.(32)

Endnotes

1. All notional margins in this paper are from Antony Green, 1997/98 NSW Redistribution: Analysis of Final Boundaries, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service, Background Paper No. 4/98.
2. Don Aitkin, Stability and change in Australian politics, Australian National University Press, Canberra, 1977.
3. Scott Bennett, Affairs of State: Politics in the Australian States and Territories, Allen and Unwin, Sydney, 1992, p. 191.
4. Australian, 15 February 1999.
5. Scott Bennett, 'Parties and elections', in Brian Galligan (ed), Australian State Politics, Longman Cheshire, Melbourne, 1986, p. 221.
6. Australian, 25 March 1999.
7. Sydney Morning Herald, 26 March 1999.
8. Australian, 26 March 1999.
9. Canberra Times, 8 March 1999; Weekend Australian, 30-31 January 1999; Australian, 25 March 1999; Daily Telegraph, 23 January 1999.
10. Sydney Morning Herald, Australian, 29 March 1999.
11. 'A large late swing against the Carr Government has set the stage for a tight contest in today's NSW election', Mike Steketee in Weekend Australian, 27-28 March 1999.
12. Sydney Morning Herald, 26 March 1999; Weekend Australian, 27-28 March 1999.
13. Sydney Morning Herald, 29 March 1999.
14. Scott Bennett, 'The Decline in Support for the Major Parties and the Prospect of Minority Government', Research Paper No. 10, Department of the Parliamentary Library, Information and Research Services, 1998-99.
15. Sydney Morning Herald, 26 March 1999.
16. http://www.edoz.com.au/unitynsw/
17. Weekend Australian, 12-13 December 1998, Sydney Morning Herald, 2 March 1999.
18. Australian, 19 March 1999.
19. Bennett, 'Parties and elections', p. 220.
20. See David Clune, The New South Wales State Election 1953, New South Wales Parliamentary Library and Department of Government, University of Sydney, [1996?], p. 27.
21. This was almost total. The only exception was a particular Newspoll finding which suggested a four point Coalition lead in January-February. This was so much out of kilter with other polls that it probably can be discounted, see Australian, 24 February 1999.
22. Sydney Morning Herald, 29, 30 March 1999.
23. Weekend Australian, 27-28 March 1999.
24. Sydney Morning Herald, 30 March 1999.
25. ibid.
26. Malcolm Mackerras, 'Power pivots on Independent pair', Australian, 2 February 1999; Sydney Morning Herald, 2 March 1999.
27. Laurie Oakes, 'Blonde ambition', Bulletin, 30 March 1999, p. 49.
28. Weekend Australian, 3-4 April 1999.
29. Sydney Morning Herald, 29 March 1999.
30. For three-cornered contests, see Scott Bennett, Winning and Losing: Australian National Elections, Melbourne, Melbourne University Press, 1996, pp. 51-3.
31. When optional preferential voting is used, ballot papers with no second (or later) preferences are set aside as 'exhausted' votes, or in other words, the votes 'exhaust'.
32. Sydney Morning Herald, 29 March 1999.

Table 1: Legislative Assembly, State Summary

Table 2a: Legislative Assembly, District Summary

District	ALP	LP	NP	PHON	AD	Others	Formal	Informal	Turnout	Enrolled
Albury	6703	16374		1731		13272	38080	583	38663	41571
Auburn	24207	8031		2536	1148	4768	40690	1581	42271	45150
Ballina	11071		20391		1675	5795	38932	805	39737	43298
Bankstown	26519	5755		2327	751	3609	38961	1840	40801	44744
Barwon	9554		19994	7988	1085	415	39036	669	39705	43149
Bathurst	20375	5394	6018	3020	660	4476	39943	799	40742	42729
Baulkham Hills	13206	19737		1825	2861	3551	41180	1016	42196	44571
Bega	12562	18253		5200	1751	2150	39916	678	40594	43473
Blacktown	22714	8260		3953	3178	3392	41497	1497	42994	45799
Bligh	12153	8140				17771	38064	883	38947	45282
Blue Mountains	18474	11464		2777	2944	5479	41138	702	41840	44625
Burrinjuck	14580	6589	11574	4523	657	1694	39617	672	40289	42787
Cabramatta	18859	3141		1954	505	13820	38279	1652	39931	43295
Camden	15888	18566		3809		4204	42467	1067	43534	46153
Campbelltown	21414	8353		3630	1639	4066	39102	1133	40235	43012
Canterbury	22302	6686		1114	1137	8217	39456	1783	41239	44741
Cessnock	21966	6003		6462		5809	40240	760	41000	43239
Charlestown	22300	9078		4157		5211	40746	878	41624	43689
Clarence	14524	7004	10019	4263	518	3074	39402	594	39996	42363
Coffs Harbour	11970		18043	4409	2361	2359	39142	692	39834	42709
Coogee	18901	12498		910	2180	3781	38270	761	39031	43492
Cronulla	14123	18160		3057	1148	3936	40424	892	41316	44412
Davidson	8583	23394		1531	2424	4657	40589	837	41426	44616
Drummoyne	19253	13475		1679	1806	5088	41301	1325	42626	45476
Dubbo	8016		12597	7166	593	11201	39573	756	40329	42678
East Hills	20146	7926		4369	1003	7463	40907	1444	42351	44795
Epping	11937	17862		1274	2638	6805	40516	660	41176	44490
Fairfield	23362	5629		2929	662	6308	38890	1911	40801	43865
Georges River	19548	15285		2193		4450	41476	972	42448	45286
Gosford	16720	18136		2172	1413	3301	41742	824	42566	45985
Granville	22330	11631		3599		2103	39663	1489	41152	44216
Hawkesbury	10058	19202		3777	1914	5556	40507	938	41445	44233
Heathcote	19274	12401		3400	1379	4666	41120	784	41904	44122
Heffron	23492	7205		1615	1476	3282	37070	1440	38510	42157
Hornsby	13966	16976		1679	2012	6682	41315	982	42297	45519
Illawarra	20370	6492		3576	2017	7674	40129	1160	41289	43600
Keira	18293	4527		2678		14783	40281	866	41147	43750
Kiama	20236	8936		3765	1363	6637	40937	1018	41955	44281
Kogarah	19628	14226		1752		5302	40908	1308	42216	45576
Ku-ring-gai	8241	22708		1416	3769	4181	40315	710	41025	44417
Lachlan	11385		22798	5383	1124	689	41379	854	42233	44521
Lake Macquarie	22821	9333		5073		4412	41639	898	42537	45039
Lakemba	24457	6588		1487	1181	4975	38688	1463	40151	43470
Lane Cove	12911	19896		1092	3665	2417	39981	958	40939	44607
Lismore	10779	5260	15238		1270	6360	38907	725	39632	42271
Liverpool	26754	6773		3546		2878	39951	1682	41633	45093
Londonderry	19369	9877		4406	1305	4570	39527	1494	41021	44248
Macquarie Fields	25223	8512		3660	1226	2120	40741	1361	42102	45578
Maitland	18563	17729		3452	766	2769	43279	619	43898	45716

District	ALP	LP	NP	PHON	AD	Others	Formal	Informal	Turnout	Enrolled
Manly	6705	15424		1595	1004	15078	39806	869	40675	44004
Maroubra	23393	9523		1926	1292	3312	39446	1187	40633	44129
Marrickville	21311	5351		1661	3425	7884	39632	1370	41002	45834
Menai	18048	15434		3360	1216	3689	41747	1242	42989	45574
Miranda	16996	16099		2842	1460	2232	39629	805	40434	42842
Monaro	12076	7521	8477	2855		7195	38124	885	39009	42227
Mount Druitt	23820	6399		3458	1517	4736	39930	1467	41397	44532
Mulgoa	21413	9772		3569	1282	4267	40303	1555	41858	44706
Murray-Darling	16781		13790	6238	792	387	37988	727	38715	42706
Murrumbidgee	13225		22024	3378	1546	271	40444	875	41319	45059
Myall Lakes	11922		20841	5522		2308	40593	701	41294	43712
Newcastle	21644	8208		3468	1802	5645	40767	1101	41868	45039
North Shore	10888	20994		867	3121	3089	38959	686	39645	44665
Northern Tablelands	3598		13381	2770	1092	18408	39249	509	39758	42355
Orange	12878		16566	5036	1059	4326	39865	824	40689	42982
Oxley	9548		14187	7366	1089	6918	39108	770	39878	42546
Parramatta	21466	12023		1953	1280	3291	40013	1094	41107	45193
Peats	20451	12803		2767	1598	3324	40943	1040	41983	44549
Penrith	21467	10154		3523	933	4259	40336	1243	41579	44323
Pittwater	7938	20918		1955	4719	4677	40207	897	41104	44626
Port Jackson	21582	7359		735	2993	7403	40072	1390	41462	46377
Port Macquarie	10815		22471	4832		1976	40094	636	40730	43060
Port Stephens	18415		9650	5247	1345	5689	40346	932	41278	43840
Riverstone	23148	10779		3964	1908	2360	42159	1216	43375	46132
Rockdale	22258	11003		2185	1087	3299	39832	1629	41461	44815
Ryde	18169	13853		1023	1551	6624	41220	1151	42371	45383
Smithfield	25276	8924		2352	956	3036	40544	1483	42027	44952
South Coast	16543	16425		4274		3943	41185	757	41942	44769
Southern Highlands	13527	17614		4055	1225	3272	39693	833	40526	43149
Strathfield	18386	13623		1365	1800	5883	41057	1277	42334	46002
Swansea	21152	9712		5469	1671	3338	41342	922	42264	44451
Tamworth	5029		4701	2718		28182	40630	520	41150	43606
The Entrance	19526	11404	3909	2861	1167	2410	41277	936	42213	44841
The Hills	10876	21954		1606	2963	5597	42996	974	43970	47272
Tweed	17713		16315		945	5132	40105	834	40939	44768
Upper Hunter	12450		19307	5030		2491	39278	756	40034	42206
Vaucluse	10244	20271		791	2269	4102	37677	860	38537	43642
Wagga Wagga	10391	10032	9052	3147	1071	5864	39557	695	40252	43098
Wakehurst	11455	19278		2684	2583	3816	39816	1219	41035	44123
Wallsend	24424	8265		4878		4918	42485	1061	43546	45751
Wentworthville	21250	11071		2609	1132	4418	40480	1341	41821	44675
Willoughby	11262	20327		895	3048	4504	40036	954	40990	44775
Wollongong	24713	6153			2185	6372	39423	1368	40791	43467
Wyong	22606	11233		4004	1199	2731	41773	1038	42811	45414
Total	1576858	927368	331343	281147	124529	494834	3736079	96044	3832123	4116059
Regions
Metropolitan	926169	657426		117437	84546	262174	2047752	61772	2109524	2280991
Provincial	352674	159476	13559	62806	19470	90502	698487	16123	714610	757276
Rural	298015	110466	317784	100904	20513	142158	989840	18149	1007989	1077792

Table2b: Legislative Assembly, District Summary

District	ALP	LP	NP	PHON	AD	Others	Formal	Informal	Turnout
Albury	17.6	43.0		4.5		34.9	98.5	1.5	93.0
Auburn	59.5	19.7		6.2	2.8	11.7	96.3	3.7	93.6
Ballina	28.4		52.4		4.3	14.9	98.0	2.0	91.8
Bankstown	68.1	14.8		6.0	1.9	9.3	95.5	4.5	91.2
Barwon	24.5		51.2	20.5	2.8	1.1	98.3	1.7	92.0
Bathurst	51.0	13.5	15.1	7.6	1.7	11.2	98.0	2.0	95.3
Baulkham Hills	32.1	47.9		4.4	6.9	8.6	97.6	2.4	94.7
Bega	31.5	45.7		13.0	4.4	5.4	98.3	1.7	93.4
Blacktown	54.7	19.9		9.5	7.7	8.2	96.5	3.5	93.9
Bligh	31.9	21.4				46.7	97.7	2.3	86.0
Blue Mountains	44.9	27.9		6.8	7.2	13.3	98.3	1.7	93.8
Burrinjuck	36.8	16.6	29.2	11.4	1.7	4.3	98.3	1.7	94.2
Cabramatta	49.3	8.2		5.1	1.3	36.1	95.9	4.1	92.2
Camden	37.4	43.7		9.0		9.9	97.5	2.5	94.3
Campbelltown	54.8	21.4		9.3	4.2	10.4	97.2	2.8	93.5
Canterbury	56.5	16.9		2.8	2.9	20.8	95.7	4.3	92.2
Cessnock	54.6	14.9		16.1		14.4	98.1	1.9	94.8
Charlestown	54.7	22.3		10.2		12.8	97.9	2.1	95.3
Clarence	36.9	17.8	25.4	10.8	1.3	7.8	98.5	1.5	94.4
Coffs Harbour	30.6		46.1	11.3	6.0	6.0	98.3	1.7	93.3
Coogee	49.4	32.7		2.4	5.7	9.9	98.1	1.9	89.7
Cronulla	34.9	44.9		7.6	2.8	9.7	97.8	2.2	93.0
Davidson	21.1	57.6		3.8	6.0	11.5	98.0	2.0	92.9
Drummoyne	46.6	32.6		4.1	4.4	12.3	96.9	3.1	93.7
Dubbo	20.3		31.8	18.1	1.5	28.3	98.1	1.9	94.5
East Hills	49.2	19.4		10.7	2.5	18.2	96.6	3.4	94.5
Epping	29.5	44.1		3.1	6.5	16.8	98.4	1.6	92.6
Fairfield	60.1	14.5		7.5	1.7	16.2	95.3	4.7	93.0
Georges River	47.1	36.9		5.3		10.7	97.7	2.3	93.7
Gosford	40.1	43.4		5.2	3.4	7.9	98.1	1.9	92.6
Granville	56.3	29.3		9.1		5.3	96.4	3.6	93.1
Hawkesbury	24.8	47.4		9.3	4.7	13.7	97.7	2.3	93.7
Heathcote	46.9	30.2		8.3	3.4	11.3	98.1	1.9	95.0
Heffron	63.4	19.4		4.4	4.0	8.9	96.3	3.7	91.3
Hornsby	33.8	41.1		4.1	4.9	16.2	97.7	2.3	92.9
Illawarra	50.8	16.2		8.9	5.0	19.1	97.2	2.8	94.7
Keira	45.4	11.2		6.6		36.7	97.9	2.1	94.1
Kiama	49.4	21.8		9.2	3.3	16.2	97.6	2.4	94.7
Kogarah	48.0	34.8		4.3		13.0	96.9	3.1	92.6
Ku-ring-gai	20.4	56.3		3.5	9.3	10.4	98.3	1.7	92.4
Lachlan	27.5		55.1	13.0	2.7	1.7	98.0	2.0	94.9
Lake Macquarie	54.8	22.4		12.2		10.6	97.9	2.1	94.4
Lakemba	63.2	17.0		3.8	3.1	12.9	96.4	3.6	92.4
Lane Cove	32.3	49.8		2.7	9.2	6.0	97.7	2.3	91.8
Lismore	27.7	13.5	39.2		3.3	16.3	98.2	1.8	93.8
Liverpool	67.0	17.0		8.9		7.2	96.0	4.0	92.3
Londonderry	49.0	25.0		11.1	3.3	11.6	96.4	3.6	92.7
Macquarie Fields	61.9	20.9		9.0	3.0	5.2	96.8	3.2	92.4
Maitland	42.9	41.0		8.0	1.8	6.4	98.6	1.4	96.0

District	ALP	LP	NP	PHON	AD	Others	Formal	Informal	Turnout
Manly	16.8	38.7		4.0	2.5	37.9	97.9	2.1	92.4
Maroubra	59.3	24.1		4.9	3.3	8.4	97.1	2.9	92.1
Marrickville	53.8	13.5		4.2	8.6	19.9	96.7	3.3	89.5
Menai	43.2	37.0		8.0	2.9	8.8	97.1	2.9	94.3
Miranda	42.9	40.6		7.2	3.7	5.6	98.0	2.0	94.4
Monaro	31.7	19.7	22.2	7.5		18.9	97.7	2.3	92.4
Mount Druitt	59.7	16.0		8.7	3.8	11.9	96.5	3.5	93.0
Mulgoa	53.1	24.2		8.9	3.2	10.6	96.3	3.7	93.6
Murray-Darling	44.2		36.3	16.4	2.1	1.0	98.1	1.9	90.7
Murrumbidgee	32.7		54.5	8.4	3.8	0.7	97.9	2.1	91.7
Myall Lakes	29.4		51.3	13.6		5.7	98.3	1.7	94.5
Newcastle	53.1	20.1		8.5	4.4	13.8	97.4	2.6	93.0
North Shore	27.9	53.9		2.2	8.0	7.9	98.3	1.7	88.8
Northern Tablelands	9.2		34.1	7.1	2.8	46.9	98.7	1.3	93.9
Orange	32.3		41.6	12.6	2.7	10.9	98.0	2.0	94.7
Oxley	24.4		36.3	18.8	2.8	17.7	98.1	1.9	93.7
Parramatta	53.6	30.0		4.9	3.2	8.2	97.3	2.7	91.0
Peats	49.9	31.3		6.8	3.9	8.1	97.5	2.5	94.2
Penrith	53.2	25.2		8.7	2.3	10.6	97.0	3.0	93.8
Pittwater	19.7	52.0		4.9	11.7	11.6	97.8	2.2	92.1
Port Jackson	53.9	18.4		1.8	7.5	18.5	96.6	3.4	89.4
Port Macquarie	27.0		56.0	12.1		4.9	98.4	1.6	94.6
Port Stephens	45.6		23.9	13.0	3.3	14.1	97.7	2.3	94.2
Riverstone	54.9	25.6		9.4	4.5	5.6	97.2	2.8	94.0
Rockdale	55.9	27.6		5.5	2.7	8.3	96.1	3.9	92.5
Ryde	44.1	33.6		2.5	3.8	16.1	97.3	2.7	93.4
Smithfield	62.3	22.0		5.8	2.4	7.5	96.5	3.5	93.5
South Coast	40.2	39.9		10.4		9.6	98.2	1.8	93.7
Southern Highlands	34.1	44.4		10.2	3.1	8.2	97.9	2.1	93.9
Strathfield	44.8	33.2		3.3	4.4	14.3	97.0	3.0	92.0
Swansea	51.2	23.5		13.2	4.0	8.1	97.8	2.2	95.1
Tamworth	12.4		11.6	6.7		69.4	98.7	1.3	94.4
The Entrance	47.3	27.6	9.5	6.9	2.8	5.8	97.8	2.2	94.1
The Hills	25.3	51.1		3.7	6.9	13.0	97.8	2.2	93.0
Tweed	44.2		40.7		2.4	12.8	98.0	2.0	91.4
Upper Hunter	31.7		49.2	12.8		6.3	98.1	1.9	94.9
Vaucluse	27.2	53.8		2.1	6.0	10.9	97.8	2.2	88.3
Wagga Wagga	26.3	25.4	22.9	8.0	2.7	14.8	98.3	1.7	93.4
Wakehurst	28.8	48.4		6.7	6.5	9.6	97.0	3.0	93.0
Wallsend	57.5	19.5		11.5		11.6	97.6	2.4	95.2
Wentworthville	52.5	27.3		6.4	2.8	10.9	96.8	3.2	93.6
Willoughby	28.1	50.8		2.2	7.6	11.2	97.7	2.3	91.5
Wollongong	62.7	15.6			5.5	16.2	96.6	3.4	93.8
Wyong	54.1	26.9		9.6	2.9	6.5	97.6	2.4	94.3
Total	42.2	24.8	8.9	7.5	3.3	13.2	97.5	2.5	93.1
Regions
Metropolitan	45.2	32.1		5.7	4.1	12.8	97.1	2.9	92.5
Provincial	50.5	22.8	1.9	9.0	2.8	13.0	97.7	2.3	94.4
Rural	30.1	11.2	32.1	10.2	2.1	14.4	98.2	1.8	93.5

Table 3: Legislative Assembly, District Summary

	ALP		LP/NP		Other
District	No	%	No	%	No	%
Albury			17913	51.0	17226	49.0
Auburn	27158	74.3	9409	25.7
Ballina	13347	38.0	21790	62.0
Bankstown	28637	80.2	7062	19.8
Barwon	10865	32.8	22224	67.2
Bathurst	22433	67.8	10630	32.2
Baulkham Hills	15439	41.9	21440	58.1
Bega	15186	42.9	20251	57.1
Blacktown	24861	69.4	10987	30.6
Bligh	13215	40.2			19636	59.8
Blue Mountains	22623	61.8	13997	38.2
Burrinjuck	16343	48.8	17160	51.2
Cabramatta	21144	68.9			9555	31.1
Camden	17393	46.5	20006	53.5
Campbelltown	23153	69.9	9992	30.1
Canterbury	25871	75.2	8542	24.8
Cessnock	25813	72.6			9719	27.4
Charlestown	24802	69.3	10977	30.7
Clarence	16467	50.2	16324	49.8
Coffs Harbour	14129	41.7	19749	58.3
Coogee	22338	62.3	13539	37.7
Cronulla	16137	44.9	19785	55.1
Davidson	10502	28.9	25811	71.1
Drummoyne	22118	59.4	15117	40.6
Dubbo			15344	50.0	15358	50.0
East Hills	22862	68.3	10610	31.7
Epping	15434	42.9	20512	57.1
Fairfield	25891	78.3	7163	21.7
Georges River	21559	56.3	16763	43.7
Gosford	18262	47.7	19984	52.3
Granville	23720	64.6	13011	35.4
Hawkesbury	12466	36.7	21510	63.3
Heathcote	21864	60.4	14336	39.6
Heffron	25478	76.1	7998	23.9
Hornsby	17117	47.3	19065	52.7
Illawarra	22848	72.8	8554	27.2
Keira	19821	57.9			14390	42.1
Kiama	23048	67.7	10995	32.3
Kogarah	21381	57.5	15784	42.5
Ku-ring-gai	10826	30.0	25298	70.0
Lachlan	12680	33.7	24940	66.3
Lake Macquarie	25065	69.2	11134	30.8
Lakemba	26536	74.7	8998	25.3
Lane Cove	15846	42.6	21379	57.4
Lismore	13675	41.5	19293	58.5
Liverpool	28153	78.6	7666	21.4
Londonderry	21145	64.9	11436	35.1
Macquarie Fields	26705	73.5	9620	26.5
Maitland	20102	51.0	19347	49.0

	ALP		LP/NP		Other
District	No	%	No	%	No	%
Manly			16553	48.7	17408	51.3
Maroubra	25293	69.9	10867	30.1
Marrickville	23524	71.5			9394	28.5
Menai	20166	54.2	17044	45.8
Miranda	19002	52.3	17353	47.7
Monaro	15047	49.8	15175	50.2
Mount Druitt	26038	75.8	8322	24.2
Mulgoa	22993	67.6	11029	32.4
Murray-Darling	17765	54.2	15002	45.8
Murrumbidgee	14269	38.0	23261	62.0
Myall Lakes	13314	37.1	22531	62.9
Newcastle	24925	72.4	9510	27.6
North Shore	13624	37.7	22495	62.3
Northern Tablelands			14482	40.6	21162	59.4
Orange	14765	43.7	19041	56.3
Oxley	12687	42.0	17503	58.0
Parramatta	23472	64.5	12915	35.5
Peats	22397	61.3	14114	38.7
Penrith	23235	66.7	11592	33.3
Pittwater	10523	31.2	23201	68.8
Port Jackson	25904	75.1	8567	24.9
Port Macquarie	11990	33.4	23919	66.6
Port Stephens	20495	62.3	12421	37.7
Riverstone	25188	67.2	12316	32.8
Rockdale	23930	66.5	12042	33.5
Ryde	20813	56.6	15961	43.4
Smithfield	26525	72.8	9916	27.2
South Coast	18651	50.5	18276	49.5
Southern Highlands	15289	44.3	19209	55.7
Strathfield	21387	58.4	15225	41.6
Swansea	23507	66.6	11803	33.4
Tamworth	5597	14.8			32288	85.2
The Entrance	21292	59.7	14365	40.3
The Hills	13300	35.3	24352	64.7
Tweed	19402	52.6	17500	47.4
Upper Hunter	13880	39.5	21250	60.5
Vaucluse	12903	37.5	21486	62.5
Wagga Wagga	13500	42.5	18297	57.5
Wakehurst	13713	39.2	21225	60.8
Wallsend	26380	72.6	9957	27.4
Wentworthville	22631	65.4	11969	34.6
Willoughby	13965	38.9	21891	61.1
Wollongong	26996	78.7	7315	21.3
Wyong	24398	65.5	12873	34.5

Table 4: Electoral Pendulum

District	Margin		District	Margin		District	Margin
ALP Seats			LP/NP Seats			Ind Seats
Bankstown	80.2		Davidson	71.1		Tamworth	85.2
Wollongong	78.7		Ku-ring-gai	70.0		Bligh	59.8
Liverpool	78.6		Pittwater	68.8		Northern Tablelands	59.4
Fairfield	78.3		Barwon (NP)	67.2		Manly	51.3
Heffron	76.1		Port Macquarie (NP)	66.6		Dubbo	50.0
Mount Druitt	75.8		Lachlan (NP)	66.3
Canterbury	75.2		The Hills	64.7
Port Jackson	75.1		Hawkesbury	63.3
Lakemba	74.7		Myall Lakes (NP)	62.9
Auburn	74.3		Vaucluse	62.5
Macquarie Fields	73.5		North Shore	62.3
Smithfield	72.8		Ballina (NP)	62.0
Illawarra	72.8		Murrumbidgee (NP)	62.0
Cessnock	72.6		Willoughby	61.1
Wallsend	72.6		Wakehurst	60.8
Newcastle	72.4		Upper Hunter (NP)	60.5
Marrickville	71.5		Lismore (NP)	36.7
Maroubra	69.9		Coffs Harbour (NP)	58.3
Campbelltown	69.9		Baulkham Hills	58.1
Blacktown	69.4		Oxley (NP)	58.0
Charlestown	69.3		Wagga Wagga	57.5
Lake Macquarie	69.2		Lane Cove	57.4
Cabramatta	68.9		Bega	57.1
East Hills	68.3		Epping	57.1
Bathurst	67.8		Orange (NP)	56.3
Kiama	67.7		Southern Highlands	55.7
Mulgoa	67.6		Cronulla	55.1
Riverstone	67.2		Camden	53.5
Penrith	66.7		Hornsby	52.7
Swansea	66.6		Gosford	52.3
Rockdale	66.5		Burrinjuck (NP)	51.2
Wyong	65.5		Albury	51.0
Wentworthville	65.4		Monaro (NP)	50.2
Londonderry	64.9
Granville	64.6
Parramatta	64.5
Port Stephens	62.3
Coogee	62.3
Blue Mountains	61.8
Peats	61.3
Heathcote	60.4
The Entrance	59.7
Drummoyne	59.4
Strathfield	58.4
Keira	57.9
Kogarah	57.5
Ryde	56.6
Georges River	56.3
Murray-Darling	54.2
Menai	54.2
Tweed	52.6
Miranda	52.3
Maitland	51.0
South Coast	50.5
Clarence	50.2

Table 5 Legislative Assembly: District Summary

Albury		Enrolled	41 571
Candidate	Party	Votes	%
First count
Glachan I *	LP	16 374	43.0
Douglas C	IND	13 272	34.9
O'Donnell M	ALP	6 703	17.6
Smith M	PHON	1 731	4.5
Final count
Glachan I *	LP	17 913	51.0
Douglas C	IND	17 226	49.0
Exhausted		2 941
Formal		38 080	98.5
Informal		583	1.5
Turnout		38 663	93.0
Auburn		Enrolled	45 150
Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Yakup F	UNI	3 021	7.4
Nagle P *	ALP	24 207	59.5
Bentley S	DSL	378	0.9
O'Connor K	PHON	2 536	6.2
Borluk B	LP	8 031	19.7
Johnson C	AAFI	620	1.5
McDermott C	AD	1 148	2.8
Ash G	GRN	749	1.8
Formal		40 690	96.3
Informal		1 581	3.7
Turnout		42 271	93.6
Ballina		Enrolled	43 298
Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Robertson L	AD	1 675	4.3
MacGregor J	IND	524	1.3
Arnold S	TCW	390	1.0
Ward E	ES	523	1.3
Flower C	GRN	3 333	8.6
Page E *	NP	20 391	52.4
Gosper P	CDP	1 025	2.6
Dakin S	ALP	11 071	28.4
Formal		38 932	98.0
Informal		805	2.0
Turnout		39 737	91.8
Bankstown		Enrolled	44 744
Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Ashe B	PHON	2 327	6.0
Barrett P	LP	5 755	14.8
Phillips R	SEP	239	0.6
Stewart T #	ALP	26 519	68.1
Walsh K	GRN	666	1.7
Botting K	AD	751	1.9
Bastin J	AAFI	315	0.8
Meguid E	UNI	1 551	4.0
Laurence K	CDP	838	2.2
Formal		38 961	95.5
Informal		1 840	4.5
Turnout		40 801	91.2
Barwon		Enrolled	43 149
Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Dillon M	ALP	9 554	24.5
Cooke A	CEC	415	1.1
Johns B	PHON	7 988	20.5
Slack-Smith I *	NP	19 994	51.2
Graham K	AD	1 085	2.8
Formal		39 036	98.3
Informal		669	1.7
Turnout		39 705	92.0
Bathurst		Enrolled	42 729
Candidate	Party	Votes	%
McGinnes J	IND	2 348	5.9
Bray M	IND	348	0.9
Rowe W	PHON	3 020	7.6
Williams L	GRN	847	2.1
Gurney R	ORP	493	1.2
Grivas C	AD	660	1.7
Martin G #	ALP	20 375	51.0
Thompson R	NCP	100	0.3
Simpson D	CEC	149	0.4
Ashton M	AAFI	191	0.5
Wilson S	NP	6 018	15.1
Berry S	LP	5 394	13.5
Formal		39 943	98.0
Informal		799	2.0
Turnout		40 742	95.3
Baulkham Hills		Enrolled	44 571
Candidate	Party	Votes	%
First count
Ferrara M	AD	2 861	6.9
Merton W *	LP	19 737	47.9
Schultejohann L	PHON	1 825	4.4
Hay T	ALP	13 206	32.1
Wong M	UNI	1 336	3.2
Harris C	GRN	1 315	3.2
Marshall D	NCP	106	0.3
King M	AAFI	794	1.9
Final count
Merton W *	LP	21 440	58.1
Hay T	ALP	15 439	41.9
Exhausted		4 301
Formal		41 180	97.6
Informal		1 016	2.4
Turnout		42 196	94.7
Bega		Enrolled	43 473
Candidate	Party	Votes	%
First count
Smith R *	LP	18 253	45.7
Paris R	IND	685	1.7
Freihaut K	GRN	1 465	3.7
Boland J	ALP	12 562	31.5
Innes R	PHON	5 200	13.0
Redmond D	AD	1 751	4.4
Final count
Smith R *	LP	20 251	57.1
Boland J	ALP	15 186	42.9
Exhausted		4 479
Formal		39 916	98.3
Informal		678	1.7
Turnout		40 594	93.4
Blacktown		Enrolled	45 799
Candidate	Party	Votes	%
King D	AD	3 178	7.7
Sherwood E	AAFI	1 015	2.4
Bawden B	CDP	2 377	5.7
Holder R	LP	8 260	19.9
Gibson P #	ALP	22 714	54.7
Nixon B	PHON	3 953	9.5
Formal		41 497	96.5
Informal		1 497	3.5
Turnout		42 994	93.9
Bligh		Enrolled	45 282
Candidate	Party	Votes	%
First count
Marguin A	UNI	621	1.6
Holdaway E	GRN	2 245	5.9
Moore C *	IND	14 214	37.3
Upton C	TCW	128	0.3
Duncan M	IND	280	0.7
Smith V	ALP	12 153	31.9
Fussell P	LP	8 140	21.4
Hatfield B	NLP	93	0.2
Trubridge J	ERP	190	0.5
Final count
Moore C *	IND	19 636	59.8
Smith V	ALP	13 215	40.2
Exhausted		5 213
Formal		38 064	97.7
Informal		883	2.3
Turnout		38 947	86.0
Blue Mountains		Enrolled	44 625
Candidate	Party	Votes	%
First count
Bell C	ES	619	1.5
Anderson M	AAFI	378	0.9
Buckley W	PHON	2 777	6.8
Grigg S	CDP	1 954	4.7
Scott J	LP	11 464	27.9
Lear S	AD	2 944	7.2
Debus B *	ALP	18 474	44.9
Doust A	GRN	2 528	6.1
Final count
Scott J	LP	13 997	38.2
Debus B *	ALP	22 623	61.8
Exhausted		4 518
Formal		41 138	98.3
Informal		702	1.7
Turnout		41 840	93.8
Burrinjuck		Enrolled	42 787
Candidate	Party	Votes	%
First count
Tarlinton D	PHON	4 523	11.4
Cosgrove L	CEC	157	0.4
Fraser P	AD	657	1.7
Green J	GRN	1 041	2.6
Hodgkinson K	NP	11 574	29.2
McManus M	ALP	14 580	36.8
Newborne Z	CDP	496	1.3
Schultz G #	LP	6 589	16.6
Final count
Hodgkinson K	NP	17 160	51.2
McManus M	ALP	16 343	48.8
Exhausted		6 114
Formal		39 617	98.3
Informal		672	1.7
Tuurout		40 289	94.2