Opinion polls: issues and preferred party, and preferred PM, July 2004

Research Note Index

Research Note no. 2 2004–05

Opinion polls: issues and preferred party, and preferred PM, July 2004

Sarah Miskin
Politics and Public Administration Section
Greg Baker
Statistics Section
12 July 2004

This Research Note is one of a series examining the results of polls that test the importance of issues to voters and the parties that voters prefer to handle those issues.⁽¹⁾

As noted in the first edition of this series, Newspoll conducts the most regular polls on the importance of issues and the party preferred to handle them, and the results are published in table format in The Australian. The two other major polling organisations, ACNielsen and Roy Morgan Research, also conduct polls on issues. However, these are not presented here for two reasons: (1) ACNielsen polls, which appear in the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, are not published as regularly as those of Newspoll, which means they do not allow the cross-time tracking that is possible with Newspoll; and (2) both the ACNielsen and Morgan results (see www.roymorgan.com.au) are not directly comparable with Newspoll as the questions differ.⁽²⁾

This Note uses graphs rather than tables to show the latest results as compared to those of the previous poll and changes in the importance of selected issues (Figures 1 and 2). It also graphs the results from June 2001 onwards for the party preferred to handle several key issues (Figures 3 to 6). Finally, it compares the ‘preferred prime minister’ results of Newspoll and ACNielsen (Figure 7).

Note that the graphs are drawn to different scales to present the clearest picture of the results. The need for caution in interpreting poll results is outlined in another Research Note, ‘Interpreting opinion polls: some essential details’ (http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/rn/2003-04/04rn52.pdf).

The first edition can be found at:
http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/rn/2003-04/04rn24.pdf. A Research Paper on voters’ attitudes to taxation and spending issues can be found at:
http://www.aph.gov.au/library/ pubs/rp/2003-04/04rp13.pdf.
Newspoll names 16 issues and asks respondents to say whether each is ‘very important’, ‘fairly important’ or ‘not important’ to how they will vote in a federal election. Morgan asks its respondents which three (of 11) issues are most important to them.

Figure 1. Newspoll results: issues important to the electorate

Figure 2. Level of importance of issues

Figure 3. Education and Health/Medicare: party preferred

Figure 4. Immigration and Defence: party preferred

Figure 5. Taxation and Interest rates: party preferred

Figure 6. Unempolyment and Family issues: party preferred

Figure 7. Preferred prime minister

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