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Research Note no. 35 2003-04

Electoral Pendulum 2004

Gerard Newman
Andrew Kopras
Statistics Group
16 February 2004

Introduction

This Research Note shows the notional two-party preferred swing needed for each electoral division to change hands at the next House of Representatives election. The two-party preferred votes are based on the results of the 2001 election adjusted for the effects of electoral redistributions and the Cunningham by-election. For divisions held by Independents and the Greens, the swing to lose is the two-candidate preferred vote.

Redistributions of federal electoral boundaries occurred in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia during 2002 and 2003. The redistributions in Queensland and South Australia were triggered by a change in the two States' entitlements to representation in the House of Representatives in the 2003 determination by the Australian Electoral Commissioner. The redistributions resulted in the creation of the new division of Bonner in Queensland and the abolition of Bonython in South Australia.

Northern Territory

The 2003 determination also resulted in a reduction in the entitlements of the Northern Territory from two seats to one. Following the determination, a reference was received by the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters to inquire into increasing the minimum entitlement for the Territories to provide for a minimum of two divisions for the NT and the ACT. The Committee did not make any recommendations concerning minimum entitlements for the Territories. However, it did recommend that the Australian Electoral Commissioner take account of the margin of error in population estimates for the Territories when making entitlement determinations in the future and that the 2003 determination in respect of the Northern Territory be set aside.

As yet, the Government has not responded to the Committee's report, but it seems likely that the Government will introduce legislation to implement the Committee's recommendations in time for the next election. This being the case, the Northern Territory may well have two seats for the next election. The electoral pendulum shown here assumes that the two Northern Territory divisions (Lingiari and Solomon) will be reinstated for the next election(1).

Seats to Win

The 2002-03 redistributions changed the notional party status of a number of seats. The Victorian regional seat of McMillan and the outer-suburban Brisbane seat of Bowman were changed from marginal Labor seats to marginal Coalition seats, while the South Australian rural seat of Wakefield was changed from a fairly-safe Coalition seat to a marginal Labor seat. The newly created seat of Bonner located in Brisbane's bay-side suburbs is a notional marginal Labor seat.

Given the above, the notional composition of the House of Representatives before the next election will be Coalition 83 members, Labor 63, Greens 1 and Independents 3 for a total of 150 members. This gives the Coalition a majority of 16 seats over all other parties in the Chamber. The Coalition would lose its absolute majority if 8 seats were lost at the next election. Conversely, Labor would need to win an additional 13 seats for an absolute majority.

Based on the pendulum the Labor Party requires a uniform two-party preferred swing of 2.2 per cent to win the necessary 13 seats to win the next election. However, it is worth noting that the pendulum is not always an accurate predictor of electoral outcomes as election swings are not necessarily uniform between States or regions.

Electoral Pendulum 2004
                     
 

Swing to

    

Swing to

    

Swing to

    

Swing to

LP/NP Seats

lose (%)

  

LP/NP Seats

lose (%)

  

ALP Seats

lose (%)

  

ALP Seats

lose (%)

Murray (Vic)

21.9

  

Pearce (WA)

6.9

  

Batman (Vic)

25.1

  

Ballarat (Vic)

3.2

Mitchell (NSW)

21.3

  

Blair (Qld)

6.6

  

Fowler (NSW)

21.5

  

Greenway (NSW)

3.1

Bradfield (NSW)

21.2

  

Leichhardt (Qld)

6.4

  

Grayndler (NSW)

21.3

  

Banks (NSW)

2.9

Mallee (Vic)

20.9

  

Moore (WA)

6.0

  

Wills (Vic)

20.6

  

Chisholm (Vic)

2.7

Riverina (NSW)

19.9

  

Aston (Vic)

6.0

  

Gellibrand (Vic)

20.4

  

Rankin (Qld)

2.4

O'Connor (WA)

19.1

  

Dickson (Qld)

6.0

  

Scullin (Vic)

20.3

  

Bass (Tas)

2.1

Mackellar (NSW)

16.9

  

Lindsay (NSW)

5.5

  

Gorton (Vic)

20.2

  

Swan (WA)

2.0

Barker (SA)

16.6

  

Corangamite (Vic)

5.4

  

Melbourne (Vic)

19.9

  

Bonner (Qld)

1.9

Farrer (NSW)

16.4

  

Dunkley (Vic)

5.2

  

Watson (NSW)

17.3

  

Hasluck (WA)

1.8

Moncrieff (Qld)

16.3

  

Cowper (NSW)

4.7

  

Reid (NSW)

16.9

  

Stirling (WA)

1.6

Berowra (NSW)

15.6

  

Kalgoorlie (WA)

4.3

  

Port Adelaide (SA)

16.0

  

Kingston (SA)

1.3

Maranoa (Qld)

15.4

  

Makin (SA)

3.7

  

Maribyrnong (Vic)

15.4

  

Wakefield (SA)

1.3

Groom (Qld)

15.1

  

La Trobe (Vic)

3.7

  

Chifley (NSW)

15.3

  

Brisbane (Qld)

1.0

Gwydir (NSW)

14.9

  

Petrie (Qld)

3.5

  

Blaxland (NSW)

15.2

      

Gilmore (NSW)

14.6

  

Bowman (Qld)

3.1

  

Throsby (NSW)

15.1

      

Mayo (SA)

14.3

  

McMillan (Vic)

2.9

  

Calwell (Vic)

15.1

      

Cook (NSW)

14.0

  

Page (NSW)

2.8

  

Sydney (NSW)

15.0

      

Curtin (WA)

13.9

  

Gippsland (Vic)

2.6

  

Denison (Tas)

14.3

      

North Sydney (NSW)

13.2

  

Moreton (Qld)

2.6

  

Prospect (NSW)

12.8

      

Fadden (Qld)

13.1

  

Longman (Qld)

2.5

  

Fraser (ACT)

12.7

      

Warringah (NSW)

12.7

  

McEwen (Vic)

2.2

  

Lalor (Vic)

12.1

      

McPherson (Qld)

12.2

  

Hinkler (Qld)

2.2

  

Perth (WA)

11.2

      

Fisher (Qld)

11.8

  

Eden-Monaro (NSW)

1.7

  

Hotham (Vic)

11.0

      

Lyne (NSW)

11.2

  

Richmond (NSW)

1.7

  

Hunter (NSW)

10.9

      

Kooyong (Vic)

10.9

  

Deakin (Vic)

1.6

  

Fremantle (WA)

10.7

      

Indi (Vic)

10.7

  

Herbert (Qld)

1.5

  

Brand (WA)

10.0

      

Grey (SA)

10.6

  

Paterson (NSW)

1.4

  

Canberra (ACT)

9.4

      

Hughes (NSW)

10.4

  

Parramatta (NSW)

1.2

  

Kingsford Smith (NSW)

8.9

      

Wide Bay (Qld)

9.9

  

Hindmarsh (SA)

1.0

  

Shortland (NSW)

8.8

      

Hume (NSW)

9.8

  

Adelaide (SA)

0.6

  

Corio (Vic)

8.5

      

Ryan (Qld)

9.5

  

Canning (WA)

0.4

  

Werriwa (NSW)

8.5

      

Goldstein (Vic)

9.5

  

Dobell (NSW)

0.4

  

Lyons (Tas)

8.2

      

Fairfax (Qld)

9.2

  

Solomon (NT)

0.1

  

Franklin (Tas)

8.0

      

Wannon (Vic)

9.2

        

Oxley (Qld)

8.0

      

Menzies (Vic)

8.9

        

Holt (Vic)

7.9

      

Parkes (NSW)

8.7

        

Newcastle (NSW)

6.9

      

Macquarie (NSW)

8.7

        

Charlton (NSW)

6.7

      

Sturt (SA)

8.5

        

Isaacs (Vic)

6.6

      

Higgins (Vic)

8.4

        

Bruce (Vic)

6.5

      

Dawson (Qld)

8.0

        

Griffith (Qld)

6.2

    

Swing to

Tangney (WA)

8.0

        

Barton (NSW)

6.0

  

Ind/Grn Seats

lose (%)

Wentworth (NSW)

7.9

        

Braddon (Tas)

6.0

  

Calare (NSW)

25.0

Bennelong (NSW)

7.7

        

Melbourne Ports (Vic)

5.7

  

Kennedy (Qld)

19.1

Forrest (WA)

7.6

        

Cowan (WA)

5.5

  

New England (NSW)

8.3

Flinders (Vic)

7.4

        

Capricornia (Qld)

5.5

  

Cunningham (NSW)

2.2

Boothby (SA)

7.4

        

Lingiari (NT)

5.3

      

Casey (Vic)

7.2

        

Jagajaga (Vic)

5.3

      

Forde (Qld)

7.0

        

Lilley (Qld)

4.6

      

Robertson (NSW)

7.0

        

Lowe (NSW)

3.8

      

Macarthur (NSW)

7.0

        

Bendigo (Vic)

3.6

      
                     

Note: Pendulum based on 2001 election results adjusted for redistributions in Victoria in 2002 and Queensland and South Australia in 2003. Although the Northern Territory's entitlement was reduced to one division at the 2003 determination, this Pendulum assumes that the two Northern Territory divisions will be reinstated for next election. Includes Cunningham by-election result. Two party-preferred figures shown except for Ind and Grn seats where two-candidate preferred figures used.

1. If the legislation does not proceed then the Northern Territory will revert to being a marginal Labor (2.5 per cent) division at the next election.

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