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The Cunningham by-election 2002
E-Brief: Research Note No 18, 12 November 2002
Scott Bennett
Politics and Public Administration Group
Background
The resignation on 16 August 2002 of Stephen Martin, Labor
MP for Cunningham, caused a by-election held on 19 October. An MP since
1984,(1) Martin's decision came less than nine months after
the 2001 general election.
The candidates
Thirteen candidates nominated. Party nominations included
the ALP, Australian Democrats, Greens, One Nation and the Christian Democratic
Party (Fred Nile Group). Among the independents was the President of the
South Coast Labor Council, Peter Wilson. The Liberals decided not to nominate
a candidate, though David Moules, an independent, acknowledged his membership
of the party. In 10 of the 18 Commonwealth by-elections held since 1990,
the government of the day has chosen to avoid the contest.
The result
Michael Organ won the Greens' first House of Representatives
seat despite a first preference vote of just 23 per cent. This was the
first House seat won by a minor party since Jack Lang won Reid as a Lang
Labor candidate in 1946. Organ gained 75.2 per cent of later preferences,
which enabled him to defeat Labor's Sharon Bird, who had received 38.1
per cent of first preferences. This was the first time Labor had lost
the seat, created in 1949, and was only the fourth time that an Opposition
had lost a by-election, the last occurring in 1921.(2)
The Australian Democrat vote
(2.3 %) almost disappeared.
Explaining the result
Many factors have been pointed to in explaining the result,
including the Labor leader's performance, the preselection of the Labor
candidate, concerns over the issue of possible war with Iraq, and annoyance
at Martin's failure to serve his full term. Four other factors, however,
appear to have been more significant.
Changes in Cunningham
Although most commentary referred to Wollongong being Labor 'heartland',(3)
in fact there is a significant difference between the seats of Cunningham
in the north of the city and Throsby in the south. Throsby takes in the
BHP factory and has a socio-economic profile more typical of a safe Labor
seat.
 The difference between the two electorates
has widened with the 1999 redistribution, when Cunningham was stretched
north-east to take in such well-to-do areas as Stanwell Park, Otford and
Helensburgh, areas said to include many incomers from Sydney. This was
quite evident in the 2001 election, with Cunningham's Labor first preference
vote of 44.2 per cent being over 10 per cent less than the vote in Throsby.
Stephen Martin's 2001 vote was in fact 8.1 per cent lower than his 1998
vote before the redistribution, one of the largest falls for any sitting
member across the nation.
With Labor's vote falling a further 6.1 per cent in the by-election,
it seems that ongoing demographic change combined with the effects of
1999 redistribution had much to do with the 2002 result.
Wilson's candidature
Wilson's presence on the ballot paper gravely hurt Bird's
chances. An organiser with the NSW Teachers' Union as well as an office
holder with the local Labor council, Wilson attracted the support of a
number of local unions. His candidacy became associated with local community
criticism of different aspects of Labor's recent history in the Illawarra:
- stories of internal corruption, including accusations
of branch-stacking
- general unhappiness over the treatment of the Illawarra
by Labor's head office in Sydney
- resentment against head office intervention in the ALP
Cunningham preselection which denied local party members a say in the
choice of candidate
- a general belief that the Labor Party, and the State
Labor Government, 'took Wollongong for granted'
- he claimed arrogance of the previous Labor-dominated
city council.
Wilson summed up what he claimed was a widespread local
feeling when he warned the ALP:
You are alienating your heartland and you had better do
something about it because it is going to get worse.(4)
The Illawarra Mercury played on such resentment with
'Peoples Choice', a poll to find an attractive independent candidate.(5)
It is plausible to suggest that the great majority of Wilson's
7107 votes came from people who had supported the ALP in 2001. In fact,
his and Bird's first preferences surpassed Martin's 2001 general election
vote by over four per cent. Had Bird even been able to equal Martin's
first preferences, she would probably have won the seat.
The Liberal choice to abstain
If the Liberals had contested the by-election they would
probably have secured a vote at least as high as their 28 per cent in
2001. This would have put them well ahead of Organ, whose preferences
would probably have pushed Bird over the line. At times a party can do
a great deal of damage to opponents by avoiding a particular contest.
The Greening of Cunningham
Environmental questions such as redevelopment, protection
of the escarpment, and the degradation of the coastline have begun to
have an impact on Wollongong politics. The Green vote in Cunningham in
the 1996, 1998 and 2001 elections was among the highest in NSW.
The most visible issue has involved Sandon Point, located
between Thirroul and Bulli, where a housing development has been strongly
opposed by environmentalists. They have been supported by the local indigenous
community, concerned over the fate of an area said to be rich in indigenous
artefacts. Anectodal evidence speaks of opposition by many of the incomers,
concerned with maintaining both the environment and their house values.(6)
The Sandon Point issue gained added political flavour from
the fact that many described the deal between developer and city council
as an example of the corrupt state of local council politics, so long
dominated by the ALP.(7) It may have helped Labor lose the
mayoral election in September 2002.
The strongest Green support has come in the north-eastern
areas, including those added to Cunningham in the 1999 redistribution.
In the 2002 mayoral election Michael Organ had already indicated the growth
of Green support when he gained 13.8 per cent of the vote, winning 5 booths
in the northernmost ward, with his highest vote being an impressive 37.2
per cent in Austinmer.
Senator Bob Brown claims that many Green votes have come
from Liberal supporters.(8) Some Green votes probably did come
from such people worried about the future of re-development in the Illawarra.
In 2001 the combined Liberal-Green vote topped the ALP vote in 13 booths.
In 2002 five of these booths were among the 12 in which Organ topped the
poll.
Organ thus entered the Cunningham contest with advantages
not always enjoyed by Green candidates:
- he was a well-known local
- Cunningham had a far greener tinge than many other electorates, including
neighbouring Throsby, and
- the fortuitous holding of the mayoral election, just five weeks before,
gave him an electoral profile rare for Green candidates.
In conclusion
The unusual circumstances of this by-election mean that
the Greens may struggle to hold Cunningham. However, demographic change
makes Labor's future in the seat far from certain.
Endnotes
- As Member for Macarthur 198493 and Cunningham 19932002.
- The other cases were Riverina 1904, Kalgoorlie 1920 and
Maranoa 1921.
- M. Cazzulino, 'Heartland's sign of strife', Daily
Telegraph, 17 September 2002.
- T. Maguire, 'Squaring up to the ALP', Daily Telegraph,
5 October 2002.
- You choose', Illawarra Mercury, 2122, 26 September
2002.
- B. Norington, 'Ballot boxing', Sydney Morning Herald,
5 October 2002.
- See for example, http://www.sandon-point.org.au/splash.htm.
- G. Milne, 'Voters see a true representative in Green',
Australian, 21 October 2002.
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