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Research Note no. 12 2002-03
Scenarios for Australian Military Contributions to the Probable War
in Iraq
Alex Tewes and Kelly Kavanaugh
Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Group
26 September 2002
Introduction
In the aftermath of the 1991 Gulf War, the US and its coalition
partners developed a containment strategy designed to curtail Iraq's military
adventurism and to force Saddam Hussein to comply with United Nations
Security Council Resolutions regarding Iraq's development of Weapons of
Mass Destruction.
As was evidenced by his recent speech(1)
to the UN General Assembly, President Bush has set in motion diplomatic
and military preparations for an end to Saddam Hussein's regime. Detailed
background to the UN-US-Iraq situation is contained in the e-brief 'Iraqi
Precipice'.(2)
Nevertheless, the almost overwhelming momentum for war against
Iraq suggests that a non-military solution will be hard to find. In this
overheated environment, decisions about what sort of contribution Australia
may eventually make to the war could be influenced by factors other than
the Australian Defence Force's (ADF) strictly logical assessments.
Furthermore, in the absence of a broad coalition, such as
was forged for the 1991 Gulf War, the US may seek visible and substantial
contributions from willing countries such as Australia. This could translate
into much more generous logistic and other support than would otherwise
have been the case and thus open a wider range of military options to
the Government.
Scenarios
A host of factors, both internal and external, affect what
military options are available to the Government to contribute to a possible
War in Iraq. These factors include what ADF capabilities would fit within
the overall US operational plans; the ADF's current operational commitment,
the ADF's requirement to retain a degree of flexibility to deal with short-notice
regional requirements, and the federal Government's political priorities.
In particular the ADF is currently operating at a level
not seen since the days of the Vietnam War. Current ADF operations include
peacekeeping in East Timor (approx. 1200 personnel), patrolling against
unauthorised boat arrivals in Australia's north in Operation RELEX II,
operations in the War Against Terror in Afghanistan (approx 150 Special
Forces personnel, 2 Frigates and 2 Air to Air Refuelling aircraft) as
well as continued support to peacekeeping in Bougainville (approx 35 personnel).
At the present time, it is possible to envisage four broad
scenarios (see diagram overleaf) for Australia's contribution to a possible
War in Iraq. These are as follows:
Scenario GREEN
This reflects a situation where no additional capabilities
are deployed beyond what is in place in Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf.
Forces involved include:
One SAS Squadronredeployed from Afghanistan to Iraq.
- Two Frigates
- Two P3-C Orion aircraft for maritime patrol in the Persian
Gulf.
- Two 707 aircrafttasked with Air-to-Air refuelling.
This scenario would neither require additional funding,
nor place additional burdens on the ADF. Consequently this option is considered
to have a very high probability.
Scenario BLUE
This option represents a deployment of medical and other
support troops, with a force protection element. Forces involved could
include:
- A medical unitsuch as a Field Hospital or similar.
- One Amphibious Afloat Support shipeither the HMAS KANIMBLA
or MANOORAto transport equipment, provide additional medical and other
support such as aeromedical evacuation.
- The Chemical Biological and Radiological squadron from
the Incident Response Regiment (IRR). Elements would provide protection
and decontamination in high riskhigh-risk chemical and biological environment.
- One Infantry Company to provide local area protection.
- One section of Air Defence troops for local protection.
This scenario is similar to the ADF's deployment to Rwanda
in 199495 where the ADF deployed in the order of 300 medical and support
personnel in support of UN operations. This option is likelylikely, as
it would provide a noticeable contribution to the War in Iraq without
having a significant impact on the ADF's current commitments in our own
region.
Scenario ORANGE
This scenario envisages an Australian contingent able to
engage in offensive land operations. The composition of such a force is
malleable and some options are shown below:
- A Mechanised Infantry Battalion Group from 1 Brigade
in Darwin or a Commando Battalion (4RAR) for operations in urban terrain.
- One or more squadrons of Armoured Recon vehicles from
the 2nd Cavalry Regiment .
- One or more HUON-class Mine Hunters for operations in
the seaways around Al-Basra in the South of Iraq.
- An Amphibious Afloat Support Ship (HMAS KANIMBLA or MANOORA)
with helicopters and an Air Defence section.
This option represents a major commitment of Australian
ground troops of a size comparable to Somalia (19921993). At that time
the ADF committed a light infantry battalion and a squadron of Cavalry
(approximately 1000 troops). It should be noted that Australian troops
would be most likely allotted support tasks at the flanks of any operation
due to our shortage of air defence troops, self propelled artillery and
other components which are essential for participation in high-end land
operations.
This type of deployment would be very costly and have some impact on
the ADF's ability to carry out its current operational tasking while maintaining
a high readiness battalion group for regional contingencies. While the
ADF's current commitments and preparedness levels for such an operation
make it a low probability option, political priorities could make this
scenario likely. It is worth noting that this option would have a significant
impact on the ADF, particularly when considering the rotation of units
and personnel. It was this requirement for regular rotation of fresh troops
and units that proved difficult during the East Timor operation in 19992000.
Scenario RED
This option envisages a military deployment of the scale
of the Australian contribution to the Vietnam War. Possible options in
this scenario include:
- One Mechanised Infantry Brigade (1 Brigade based in Darwin).
- One Armoured Regiment (tanks).
- F-111 Strike Aircraft.
- F/A-18 aircraft.
It should be noted that the deployment of a Brigade sized
formation is unlikely due to preparedness, sustainability and current
commitments, in particular the deployment of 1 Armoured Regiment is highly
unlikely due to its tanks being inferior to those of the Iraqi Army.
Similarly, the F-111 and F/A-18 would not be able to operate
until the missile threat was completely extinguished due to their lack
of modern Electronic Warfare Self Protection equipment. Other ADF capabilities,
such as the COLLINS submarines, would not be deployed, as there would
be no feasible role for them.
This option would be extremely costly and would create significant
challenges for the ADF in the maintenance of its regional tasks. Consequently,
its probability is rated as very low.
Of course, the various options listed above can be mix-and-matched
to meet the Government's requirements, and will depend on concurrent requirements
such as any expanded role in Afghanistan.
- President's Remarks at the United Nations General Assembly,
Remarks by the President in Address to the United Nations General Assembly September
2002, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/09/20020912-1.html
- 'Iraqi Precipice', E-Brief, 2002, http://www.aph.gov.au/library/intguide/FAD/iraq.htm
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