Research Note 26 1999-2000

New Zealand Election 1999

Scott Bennett
Politics and Public Administration Group
15 February 2000

New Zealand Election 1999

Background

On 27 November 1999 New Zealanders cast their votes for a new parliament and for two citizen-initiated referenda. In the general election they returned the first elected woman Prime Minister. Helen Clark is leader of the first Labour Government since 1990. In the referenda, New Zealanders gave affirmative votes to both questions.

The major contestants

The main contest was between National and Labour parties. Other parties with a chance of winning seats included Association of Concerned Taxpayers (ACT) NZ, Alliance, Green, Mauri Pacific, New Zealand First and United NZ.

A multi-layered contest

The election answered several questions:

• Could Prime Minister Jenny Shipley lead her National Party to a fourth consecutive victory?
• Could Labour turn around its disastrous 1996 result, when its vote of 28.2 per cent was its worst result in sixty years?
• Would the winning major party be able to secure a majority of seats?
• Which parties might be involved in forming a coalition government?
• Was New Zealand First, which had performed well in 1996, critically injured by defections?
• How would the Green Party fare, having separated from the Alliance?

The results

The Labour Party had enjoyed a clear opinion poll lead over the National Party in the months prior to the election, and the final party shares of the vote were very close to the predicted margins.

Labour's 38.7 per cent was an increase of 10.5 per cent on its 1996 vote, and gave it a margin of 8.2 per cent over the National Party (see Table). The National vote (30.5 per cent) was 3.3 per cent below its 1996 result.

Of the other parties, New Zealand First's vote tumbled by 9.1 per cent, and the Alliance suffered a 2.4 per cent fall. The Green Party gained 5.2 per cent of the vote.

The traditional Labour domination of the Maori seats, which had been decisively broken in 1996 by New Zealand First, was restored. Labour won all Maori seats (increased from five to six) in 1999.

The electoral system

The Mixed Member Proportional voting method (MMP), first used in the 1996 election, had a significant impact upon the result:

• the major parties finished well short of the vote needed for them to win majority government in their own right.
• with low major party votes, coalition government has quickly become the norm.
• New Zealand First failed to get the five per cent threshold vote which a party needs to be guaranteed representation. The 63-vote victory of party leader, Winston Peters, in Tauranga (the closest electorate result) meant that it eventually won five seats.
• although the Green Party won seven seats, for much of the count it seemed unlikely to win any representation at all.

By law there must be a parliamentary review of MMP by 1 June 2002. Research findings suggest that many New Zealanders are unhappy with the system.(1)

Party and government

After the initial count of votes, the combined Labour and Alliance representation of 63 seats comprised a majority of the House of Representatives. This encouraged party leaders, Helen Clark and Jim Anderton, to enter into negotiations to form a Labour-Alliance coalition. These negotiations proceeded speedily, and the make-up of the new government was quickly known.

Despite this, the counting of special votes eventually altered the position significantly. The late success of the Greens in winning seven of the 120 parliamentary seats, had the effect of reducing the coalition total to 59, two short of achieving control of the

House. This result was achieved too late to influence the coalition negotiations, however.

This change in party strengths held one potential benefit for the new government. The early figures had suggested that parties of the 'left' held a parliamentary majority over parties of the 'right' of six seats. This margin was doubled with the Green success.

The new Government

Despite a history of political differences, Clark and Anderton's negotiations seemed free from tension. The two parties appeared to appreciate the need to establish and maintain amicable relations in a setting where power over the parliament could be so easily lost, or where constant argument between coalition partners could alienate voters.

The new Government is operating under the Coalition Agreement, signed on 6 December. Most controversially, this allows public disagreement between ministers on certain policies. If a Coalition management committee cannot resolve a policy dispute between the parties, the dissenting party can call for 'party distinction', and thereafter speak out against the policy. This is an attempt to avoid the rigidity and final collapse of the National-New Zealand First agreement.(2) Critics attacked this 'undermining' of the Westminster principle of collective responsibility, but the Prime Minister spoke of the need under MMP for coalition members to be tolerant of difference. Political scientist, Jonathon Boston, defended it as a 'modest modification' to the collective responsibility concept, which ought not to threaten the New Zealand political system.(3)

In the 20-person Cabinet that took office on 10 December, the Prime Minister additionally assumed the portfolio of Arts, Culture and Heritage, a particular area of interest. Labour's deputy leader, Michael Cullen, became Treasurer and Minister for Finance and Leader of the House. Alliance members gained four positions, with Anderton appointed Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Economic Development, Industry and Regional Development. Two of the outer ministry of six were Alliance MPs.

There has been some speculation that the Green Party will be a thorn in the side of the Clark minority Government. An opposing view, though, claims that it would not be in the interests of the party to be too much trouble to the Government. It has been suggested, in fact, that the Greens would leave themselves open to punishment by their voters, were they to bring down a centre-left administration. It has thus been predicted that the next three years will see some degree of 'politically embarrassing Green sniping from the sidelines', with 'occasional Green-tinged policy compromises' by the Government on matters serious enough for the Greens to dig in their heels. It is not expected that the Greens will bring down the Government.(4)

The referenda results

The first referendum question asked: Should the size of the House of Representatives be reduced from 120 members to 99 members?

This was carried, with an 80.8 per cent YES vote.

The second question was concerned with controversial aspects of the New Zealand criminal justice system: Should there be a reform of our justice system placing greater emphasis on the needs of victims, providing restitution and compensation for them and imposing minimum sentences and hard labour for all serious violent offences?

Over 90 per cent of voters approved of this proposal.

Neither of these results is binding. Amending legislation would need to pass through the Parliament before the aims of the referenda's proponents could be met.

1. Jeffrey A. Karp and Shaun Bowler, 'Coalition Government and Satisfaction with Democracy: An Analysis of New Zealand's Reaction to Proportional Representation', Proceedings of 1999 Conference of the Australasian Political Science Association, vol. II.
2. Jennifer Curtin, 'Coalition Collapse in New Zealand', Research Note no. 9, Department of the Parliamentary Library,
   1998-99.
3. ibid., 7 December 1999.
4. New Zealand Herald, 9 December 1999.

Comments to: web.library@aph.gov.au
Last reviewed 17 October 2001 by the Parliamentary Library Web Manager
© Commonwealth of Australia
Parliament of Australia Web Site Privacy Statement
Images courtesy of AUSPIC