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Electing the US President
Scott Bennett
Politics and Public Administration Group
23 November 1999
The campaign for the US Presidency is well under way. The winner will
be an American-born citizen, aged at least 35 years. The popular vote
is held on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November-7 November
in 2000.
A Presidential term is four years.
The Electoral College
Despite this popular vote, the result is decided by the Electoral College,
not directly by the people. The electoral process is thus a major example
of an indirect election.
Each State is given a number of Electoral College votes equal to its
number of Senators (2) and Representatives (depending on population).
Thus California has 54 Electoral College votes, while Vermont has 3. The
District of Columbia (DC) also has 3.
With a Congress of 535 (100 of whom are Senators), plus the 3 DC votes,
the Electoral College has numbered 538 since 1961; a majority of votes
(270) is needed to gain election.
Every ten years a national census is held, a consequence of which is
the reapportioning of House of Representatives numbers. This process flows
on to affect the State numbers in the Electoral College, and means that
population shifts will slowly alter the electoral significance of particular
States or regions. As the number of Electoral College votes is constant,
an increase in one State's votes must necessarily cause a drop in another's-though
each is guaranteed a minimum of 3 votes. Since 1976 California's vote
has grown from 45 to 54, but New York's has dropped from 41 to 33.
Whichever candidate wins the most popular votes in a State wins all the
Electoral College vote for that State-it has been called a 'winner-take-all'
system.(1) For example, in 1998 Bob Dole (Republican-R), led Bill Clinton
(Democrat-D) by just 1.2% of the 2.29 million votes cast in Georgia, but
won all of the State's 13 Electoral College votes.
In three elections (J.Q.Adams 1824, Hayes 1876, Harrison 1888) the Electoral
College has chosen a President who trailed his major opponent in the popular
vote.
If no candidate gains 270 votes, the election is decided by the House
of Representatives, with all representatives of a State voting as a unit,
and each State having 1 vote. This occurred after the 1800 (Jefferson)
and 1824 elections.
There have been many critics of this system, described by the American
Bar Association as 'archaic, undemocratic, complex, ambiguous, indirect,
and dangerous'.(2) Efforts to alter the system, most recently by Presidents
Nixon (R) and Carter (D), have never succeeded.
An electoral marathon
The marathon that is the US Presidential election lasts for approximately
two years. There are various clearly identified stages in the process:
pre-convention, convention and campaign.
Primaries and caucuses
The Democrat and Republican parties formally choose their Presidential
and Vice-Presidential candidates at national conventions (see below).
Every State has a certain number of delegates to each convention. In 2000
these delegates will be chosen in State-run caucuses and primary elections
held between January and June.
A State caucus is a multi-stage, internal party process that takes many
weeks to conduct, but which encourages grassroots party participation.
The number of delegates chosen by this method is declining as more States
switch to primaries.
Primaries are public ballots of registered party supporters to determine
who will be the party's candidate. They have gradually become the preferred
method of delegate selection. In 2000 there will be primaries in 44 States,
over double the figure for 1960.
New Hampshire's primary is traditionally the first to be held-8 February
in 2000.
'Frontloading'
Primaries and caucuses were once spread out across the first half of
an election year. Their scheduling has altered greatly in recent years
as States have attempted to make their primaries politically more significant.
Many primaries and caucuses are now squeezed into a very few days early
in the calendar, a process popularly referred to as 'frontloading'.
The urge for States to join the frontloading push has continued for 2000.
There are to be 23 primaries in the period 7-14 March, with over half
of both parties' delegates being chosen on 7 March alone. California will
be the main target for candidates on this day, for about one-fifth of
each party's delegates will be chosen from that State. It is quite likely
that the 7 March primaries will determine the outcome of the nominating
contests for both parties, repeating the events of 1996, when the Republican
nomination was known by mid-March, four months before the party convention.
The conventions
The national conventions were once important decision-making bodies,
for they actually determined the nominees. The 1976 Republican nomination
was uncertain until President Ford won narrowly from Ronald Reagan at
the Republican convention.
Reform of delegate selection rules since 1972 has seen a rapid change
in the conventions' function. Their primary role has shifted from candidate
selection to public relations. Television has been significant in making
them not much more than 'tightly scripted made-for-TV spectacles'.(3)
The presentation of attractive Presidential and Vice-Presidential candidates,
the drafting of a vote-winning platform and the energising of party activists
for the campaign proper are now the main aims of the conventions. The
modern party convention, in short, has come to be described as 'the ultimate
campaign rally'. (4)
The 2000 Republican National Convention, will be held in Philadelphia,
29 July-4 August.
The 2000 Democratic National Convention, will be held in Los Angeles,
14-17 August.
The campaign
After the conventions, the campaign usually enters a summer lull until
Labor Day, the first Monday in September. Traditionally, this is when
the campaign enters full gear for the hectic period up to the day of voting.
Although the focus is on the Democrat and Republican candidates, there
is always a plethora of other candidates. In 1998 there were 22 minor
party and independent candidates. Occasionally, as with George Wallace
(1968) or Ross Perot (1992, 1996), a third party candidate can be a factor
in the election, but this is quite rare.
The need to win Electoral College votes means that candidates concentrate
very much on the major cities and largest States, particularly if their
voting intentions are unclear. In fact, a candidate could win office by
winning the popular vote in just the eleven largest States.
No candidate today would pledge to visit each of the fifty States as
Richard Nixon (R) did in 1960. Apart from the programming difficulty,
it would be seen as an inefficient use of time. Rather more typical would
be Ronald Reagan's (R) relative neglect of the South, which was considered
solid for him in 1984, in order to focus his efforts upon the far less
certain North-East region.
Since the days of the Kennedy (D) versus Nixon (R) contest in 1960, a
major aspect of the campaign period has come to be the televised debate,
an opportunity to engage in person-to-person argument in front of a national
audience.
In modern elections, much of the candidates' time is taken up with poll-driven
activity. The parties use polls to help them make three major decisions:
where to compete, the issues to emphasise and which candidate strengths
to stress.
Television has also produced a greater emphasis upon negative campaigning.
The successful attacks in 1988 by George Bush (R) upon the 'liberal' values
of Michael Dukakis (D), is perhaps the best-known example of recent campaigns.
The count
The Electoral College votes are registered on the first Monday after
the second Wednesday in December (13 December in 2000). The ballots are
opened and counted by the Congress on 6 January (or the next day if this
falls on a Sunday).
The inauguration
The winner of the election is inaugurated as President on 20 January
following the election.
- Technically, Maine and Nebraska are exceptions, http://www.fec.gov.
- G. Edwards, M. Wattenberg and R. Lineberry, Government in America,
Harper Collins College Publishers, New York, 7th ed. 1996, p. 258.
- 'Conventions', Democracy in Action, http://gwu.edu/~action/chrnconv.html,
p. 2.
- Congressional Quarterly's Guide to U.S. Elections, Washington,
3rd edn., 1994,
p. 13.
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