Research Note 37 1997-98

Against The Odds: The 1998 ACT Election

Gerard Newman
Statistics Group
30 March 1998

Introduction

Elections for the ACT Legislative Assembly were held on 21 February 1998. The elections were the fourth since the granting of self-government to the ACT in 1988 and the second using the Hare- Clark electoral system.

Despite considerable anti-federal Liberal Party feeling among the Canberra electorate the Liberal government of Mrs Kate Carnell retained its numbers in the Assembly and Mrs Carnell was re-elected as Chief Minister at the first meeting of the new Assembly on 19 March 1998. The ACT is unique among Australian parliaments in that the Chief Minister is elected by the legislature and not commissioned by the Head of State.

The ACT Assembly has a fixed term with elections being held on the third Saturday in February every three years. The ACT is divided into three multi-member electorates: Brindabella and Ginninderra (both electing five members) and Molonglo (electing seven members).

Winning Candidates

The Campaign

The main task confronting the Carnell government in the campaign was to divorce its policies from those of the federal government. Since coming to power in March 1996 the Howard government has enacted a number of policies (public sector downsizing, contracting out of functions etc) that have not been well received by the Canberra electorate. Mrs Carnell has been able to distance her government from the actions of her federal colleagues and to promote a pro-Canberra image. The Liberal Party was able to take advantage of Mrs Carnell's high approval rating and conduct a largely presidential style campaign.

By way of contrast the Labor Party's campaign was hamstrung by the unpopularity of the Opposition Leader, Mr Wayne Berry, who only became party leader six months before the election. Early in the campaign Mr Berry's approval rating was a low 24% compared to Mrs Carnell's 59%.(1)

The Result

The election result was a personal triumph for Mrs Carnell, who received 33.5% of the vote in her electorate of Molonglo. By way of contrast Mr Wayne Berry received only 12.4% of the vote in Ginninderra.

Despite a small swing against it (down 2.7% on the 1995 result) the Liberal Party was able to maintain its level of representation in the Assembly at seven seats.

The Labor Party received 27.6% of the vote (down 4.0% on the 1995 result) and retained its six seats in the Assembly. The vote for the Labor Party was the second worst result for the party in any State or Territory election since the end of the Second World War (the worst result was in the ACT in 1989 - the first election after self-government).

For the other parties and groups contesting the elections the results were mixed. The Australian Democrats increased their vote from 3.9% to 6.0% but again failed to win a seat. The Osborne group, contesting all three electorates for the first time, increased its vote from 3.4% to 9.1% and won two seats. The Moore group only contested one electorate and as a consequence saw its vote decline from 7.0% to 2.9%. The Greens lost a seat although their vote remained virtually unchanged. In Ginninderra, the Greens candidate lost to the Osborne group candidate largely because a significant number of Democrat preferences, which would normally favour the Greens, exhausted instead of being distributed.

1998 ACT Legislative Assembly Election

Candidates

A total of 108 candidates contested the 1998 election, a significant increase on the 74 who contested the previous election.

Two significant features of the election were: firstly, the considerable turnover among the ALP members elected (although the number of members remained unchanged) and secondly, the lack of success of women candidates.

Only three of the sitting ALP members (Berry, Corbell and Wood) were re-elected. The new Labor members, Hargreaves in Brindabella, Quinlan in Molonglo, and Stanhope in Ginninderra, represent a shift from the left in the factional balance of the Labor caucus.

The only other sitting member to be defeated was the Liberal Party's Ms Littlewood, who narrowly lost her seat to the former Liberal Chief Minister Mr T Kaine.

Prominent among the new members of the Assembly are the former federal Liberal member for Namadgi, Mr Brendan Smyth, and policeman Mr Dave Rugendyke of the Osborne group.

The relatively high turnover in Labor Party members has been partly attributed to a new phenomenon in ACT elections, the party linear vote. See box section for an explanation.

Despite 40 women contesting the 1998 election, only two, Mrs Carnell and the Greens Ms Tucker, were elected. This represents a significant fall from the five who were elected at the previous election. It has been suggested that the lack of success of women candidates represents a failing in the Hare- Clark system, when compared to party- list proportional representation systems(2). The argument is that under a party- list system, parties are more likely to select women candidates for winning positions, thus ensuring more women are elected than under a system that allows more voter choice. A more likely explanation possibly is the propensity of the Hare- Clark system to elect high profile 'identity' candidates at the expense of low profile candidates. Apart from Mrs Carnell none of the other women candidates attracted significant media attention during the campaign. At least one women member, Ms Littlewood, could also attribute her loss to the vagaries of the party linear vote.

1. Canberra Times- Datacol Poll published in Canberra Times, 10 February 1998.
2. Canberra Times, 24 February 1998.

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