Research Brief Index

Research Brief no. 1 2005–06

House of Representatives by-elections 1901–2005

Gerard Newman
Statistics Section

Scott Bennett
Politics and Public Administration Section
16 August 2005

The first part of this revised brief discusses the 141 by-elections for the House of Representatives since Federation, including the most recent for the New South Wales division of Werriwa.

The brief’s appendices give a full set of by-election figures.

Contents

Party abbreviations
Executive summary

Contests
Causes
Outcomes

The organisation of Commonwealth by-elections

The reasons why by-elections have been held
The timing of by-elections

By-elections 1994–05
Vacancies for which no by-election was held 1901–2005

Number of nominations

Candidates per by-election

Voter turnout

Party performance

Seats lost at by-elections 1901–2005

Impact upon party
Impact upon Government/Opposition
Party performance at by-elections 1901–2005
By-elections caused by resignation—safeness of seat 1949–2005

Analysing by-election swings since 1949

Average swings against government: by-elections 1949–2005
Two-party preferred swings, by-elections 1949–2005

Personal and political matters

The changing of the old guard
Future Prime Ministers
The passing of Prime Ministers
The passing of leaders of the Opposition
Family matters
Famous entries into the House
Kicked upstairs?
A matter of treason
By-elections that caused ripples
Voided elections

Endnotes
Appendix 1: Schedule of House of Representatives by-elections, 1901–2005
Appendix 2: Electoral division details

First past the post electoral system
Preferential voting electoral system

Appendix 3: Notes on Commonwealth by-elections
Appendix 4: By-election timing
Appendix 5

General studies
Case studies

Commonwealth
State

Party abbreviations

Executive summary

By-elections are held to fill vacancies in the House of Representatives. This paper gives details of by-elections held from the first for Darling Downs on 14 September 1901 to the most recent held on 19 March 2005 for Werriwa.

Among the major points made in the paper:

Contests

• Since September 1901 there have been 141 by-elections, an average of 3.5 per parliament.
• The number of contestants has grown over the years from 2.2 per by-election
  (1901–18) to 11.8 per by-election (2000–2005).
• In only four cases (2.9 per cent) was a by-election contested by just a single candidate.
• An increasing tendency has been for governments to avoid contesting by-elections in their opponents’ safe seats. Since 1990 this has occurred in 11 of the 19 by-elections held.
• In only seven cases (5 per cent) has the Opposition party failed to contest a by-election, the most recent case being Bradfield in 1952.

Causes

• Sixty-seven (47.5 per cent) of the by-elections occurred because of the death of the member, 68 (48.2 per cent) as the result of the resignation of the member, five (3.5 per cent) because of voided elections, and one (0.7 per cent) because of the expulsion of the Member from the House (Kalgoorlie 1920).
• Since 1949 most by-elections have been caused by the resignation of the sitting member and have occurred in safe seats. Only eight of 53 by-elections in this period (15.1 per cent) have occurred in marginal seats.

Outcomes

• On 34 occasions (24.1 per cent) the party complexion of a seat has altered at a by-election.
• Twenty-four of these (17.0 per cent) have been in seats lost by the government of the day. The most recent case was the loss of Ryan by the Coalition Government to Labor in 2001.
• Four of the losses (2.8 per cent) have been by the Opposition of the day. The most recent case was the loss of Cunningham by Labor to the Greens in 2002.
• The average two-party preferred swing against the government of the day has been 4.0 per cent, while the average swing in government-held seats was 5.0 per cent against the government.
• In the period since 1949, the largest two-party swing against a government occurred in Canberra in 1995 when the ALP Government’s vote fell by 16.1 per cent. The largest swing to a government was 16.2 per cent, which occurred in the Coalition Government’s seat of McPherson in 1981.

The organisation of Commonwealth by-elections

By-elections are held to fill vacancies in the House of Representatives resulting from the death, resignation, absence without leave, expulsion, disqualification or ineligibility of a Member:

• There have been 141 Commonwealth by-elections held since Federation.
• The first was held in the Queensland seat of Darling Downs, on 14 September 1901 barely four months after the opening of the new Commonwealth Parliament.
• The most recent by-election was held in the New South Wales seat of Werriwa on 19 March 2005.

The reasons why by-elections have been held

Of the 141 by-elections, 67 (47.5 per cent) have occurred because of the death of the member, 68 (48.2 per cent) as the result of the resignation of the member, five (3.5 per cent) because of voided elections, and one (0.7 per cent) because of the expulsion of the member from the House (Kalgoorlie 1920).

The pattern has altered quite markedly, however:

• From 1901 to 1970, 63.3 per cent of all by-elections were brought about by death.
• By contrast, since 1971 85.7 per cent of all by-elections have been brought about by resignation.
• Goot reports a similar phenomenon in New South Wales by-elections, with 1969 the first year in which more by-elections were brought by resignation than by death—in Commonwealth elections this occurred just five years earlier.⁽¹⁾

Various factors are probably relevant here.

Members today enter the House of Representatives at a significantly younger age than used to be the case. Of the 41 parliaments to date, the second quarter’s intake (1929–51) was the oldest, averaging 48.3 years per new Member. By contrast, the fourth quarter’s intake (1977–2005) was the youngest at 42.2 years per new Member.⁽²⁾ Another factor is the greater preparedness of Members to leave Parliament before death, quite often to pursue another career. This has been aided by a third consideration, namely the general increase in longevity of male Australians.

The timing of by-elections

The Constitution (s. 33) confers on the Speaker of the House of Representatives the power to issue a writ for the election of a new Member. The Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 specifies that the election must be held between 33 and 68 days from the date the writ is issued.

Interestingly, there is no prescribed time period within which a by-election writ must be issued, and, in fact, there is no accepted view as to the period that should elapse between vacancy and polling day.

Perhaps surprisingly this has not become a matter of any long-term political debate, allowing governments a great deal of freedom in the setting of by-election dates. The length of time from a vacancy until polling day has therefore varied considerably, with the maximum number of days being the 82 days for Moreton in 1983, and the minimum being the 17 days for East Sydney in 1903.⁽³⁾ The total elapsed time from vacancy to election has increased since 1901. Between 1901 and 1949, the average was 40.3 days, whereas during the period 1949 to 2005 the average has been 51.3 days. The average figure for all by-elections has been 46.8 days.

Ideally, of course, by-elections are held as early as possible after a seat becomes vacant, ‘so that the electors are not left without representation any longer than is necessary’.⁽⁴⁾ In fact, such a consideration is occasionally pushed aside by short-term political factors.

On 22 October 1982, the member for Flinders (Phillip Lynch) resigned his seat. The Speaker fixed 4 December as the date for a by-election, but also declared that there would be a delay of almost three weeks before the writs for the by-election would be issued. According to Summers, this gave the Fraser Government the option of calling a general election for 4 or 11 December. The by-election could therefore have been pushed aside.⁽⁵⁾

In the cases of the eight by-elections held during 1994–95, the delay between the date of the seat becoming vacant and the date of the issuing of the writ varied considerably. The cases of Mackellar (35 days) and Kooyong (27 days) contrasted with the virtually instantaneous issuing of writs for by-elections in Fremantle, Boynthon and Warringah:

By-elections 1994–05

The variation that is allowed in regard to by-election dates is thus an interesting anomaly in an electoral system that is generally highly regulated.

Appendix 4 provides details of the timing of all by-elections held between September 1901 and March 2005. It also shows the number of days elapsed between the seat becoming vacant and the by-election date, as well as the number of days elapsed since the previous general election, and the number of days between the by-election and the next general election.

There have been 20 occasions when the Speaker has in fact declined to issue such a writ for a by-election due to a pending general election. The longest period a seat has been without a member prior to a general election was 128 days in the case of Hindmarsh in 1909–10. The shortest period was the 39 days between the plane crash on 13 August 1940 that killed three members and the election of 21 September 1940.

Vacancies for which no by-election was held 1901–2005

Number of nominations

The 141 by-elections have been contested by an average of 4.6 candidates. Over the years, however, there has been a steady increase in the number of nominations.

In the 24 first-past-the-post cases between 1901 and 1918 (October), the average number of nominations was 2.2 per contest.

In the 117 preferential voting cases there have been an average of 5.1 nominations per by-election:

• Between the introduction of preferential voting in 1918 (December) to the start of 1970, there was an average of 3.7 nominations per by-election.
• The 1970s and 1980s saw the first of two significant increases in candidate numbers, with 6.2 candidates per by-election over these decades.
• This was exceeded during the 1990s, with the average climbing to 8.1 candidates per contest.
• Since 2000 a further climb to 11.8 candidates per by-election has occurred.

The record number of nominations occurred in the 1009s in Wills 1992, when 22 nominations were received to fill the seat vacated by former Prime Minister Hawke. The 2005 Werriwa by-election had 16 nominations, the second-highest on record.

Candidates per by-election

In only four cases (2.8 per cent) (Kalgoorlie 1913, Dalley 1915, Wide Bay 1928, Cunningham 1956) was a by-election contested by just a single candidate.

In recent years there has been a tendency for governments to avoid contesting by-elections in their opponents’ safe seats. Since 1990 the incumbent government has failed to contest 11 of the 19 by-elections held. In all cases bar one this has meant an easy win to the party holding the seat. In the case of Cunningham in 2002, however, the absence of a Liberal candidate helped the Green candidate win the seat from the ALP.⁽⁶⁾

By way of contrast, oppositions have contested every by-election since Bradfield in 1952. In seven cases (5.0 per cent) over the whole period the Opposition has failed to contest a by-election (Darling Downs 1901, Echuca 1907, Dalley 1915, Echuca 1919, Wide Bay 1928, Balaclava 1929, Bradfield 1952).

Voter turnout

• During the period of voluntary voting (1901–24) the average turnout was just 54.0 per cent.⁽⁷⁾ The lowest figure was 15.1 per cent (East Sydney 1903).
• Since the introduction of compulsory voting in 1924, the average by-election turnout figure has been 87.7 per cent. This contrasts with a 94.5 per cent turnout in general elections over that period.
• During the compulsory voting years, there has been a slight fall in the by-election turnout figure. Prior to 1970 the turnout in 62 by-elections was 88.5 per cent; the turnout for the 45 by-elections since 1970 has been 86.7 per cent. In the 19 contests between 1991 and 2005 the turnout has been 86.6 per cent.
• The lowest turnout figure for the compulsory voting period has been 69.5 per cent (Wentworth 1981).

Party performance

In 34 of the 141 by-elections (24.1 per cent) a seat has altered its party complexion:

Seats lost at by-elections 1901–2005

Note: By the time of the Grampians by-election of 1917, the Liberal Party had been subsumed by the Nationalist
Party. This by-election is therefore not included as an occasion when the seat changed party hands.

Impact upon party

• Twenty-seven (19.1 per cent) by-elections have been lost by a major party to another major party.
• Four (2.8 per cent) have been lost by a major party to a minor party (Corangamite 1918, Echuca 1919, East Sydney 1932, Cunningham 2002).
• One (0.7 per cent) has been lost by a major party to an independent (Wills 1992).
• Two (1.4 per cent) previously held by independents were won by a major party (Franklin 1929, Henty 1946).

Impact upon Government/Opposition

• Twenty-four by-elections (17.0 per cent) have been lost by the government of the day.
• Four (2.8 per cent) have been lost by the opposition of the day (Riverina 1904, Kalgoorlie 1920, Maranoa 1921, Cunningham 2002).
• Four (2.8 per cent) have been lost by one Coalition partner to another (Wide Bay 1928, Darling Downs 1936, Calare 1960, Groom 1988). Note that the losses of Corangamite in 1918 and Echuca in 1919 by the Nationalist Party were both to the Victorian Farmers Union which shortly thereafter formed the Country Party. However, as there was no formal anti-Labor coalition at this time, these are not included here.
• Two seats (1.4 per cent) that had been held by an independent MP were won by the government of the day (Franklin 1929, Henty 1946).

In terms of winning seats from other parties, over the long haul the major non-Labor parties of the day have not done quite as well as their rivals:

Party performance at by-elections 1901–2005

* These figures include Riverina 1904, won by the Protectionists from the Free Traders.

On ten of the 34 occasions where a seat has changed party hands at a by-election (Boothby 1911, Swan 1918, Kalgoorlie 1920, Wakefield 1938, Wilmot 1939, Flinders 1952, Adelaide 1988, Canberra 1995, Ryan 2001 and Cunningham 2002), the party that won the seat at the by-election lost the seat at the next general election.

The fact that relatively few seats have changed party hands in by-elections is probably due more to the propensity for by-elections to occur in safe seats, rather than any other factor. Political parties and individual members are only too aware of the possible political consequences of losing a seat at a by-election, and thus try to ensure that by-elections caused by resignation occur only in relatively safe seats. For example, since 1949, of the 53 by-elections that were caused by the resignation of the sitting member, only eight have been in marginal seats (i.e. seats requiring a swing of less than 6.0 per cent to change hands). By far the largest number of by-elections, 32, have occurred in safe seats (i.e. seats requiring a swing of over 10 per cent to change hands).

By-elections caused by resignation—safeness of seat 1949–2005

Of the 67 seats vacated by death, 15 have been lost by the party holding the seat, identical figures for the 68 seats vacated by resignation.

Analysing by-election swings since 1949⁽⁸⁾

Apart from a party’s success or defeat in a by-election, the most important aspect of a by-election is the swing that takes place. Conventional wisdom holds that there is usually a swing against the government of the day at a by-election. The success or otherwise of a government, opposition, or party leader at the by-election is often measured by the size of the swing in comparison with the average swing recorded in past by-elections. However, by-elections occur in varied and disparate electoral divisions, with different numbers and mixes of candidates, and with a variety of local, state and national issues involved. It could therefore be argued that given the variety of factors involved, there is no ‘normal’ by-election swing. By-elections are held in such different circumstances that none can be regarded as typical, and it is generally agreed that any swing that occurs is usually explained by the special factors pertaining to each by-election.⁽⁹⁾

By-election swings can be calculated by comparing the first preference and two-party preferred votes received by the various parties at the by-election, with the votes at the previous general election. The two-party preferred swing is more commonly used, as it overcomes some of the difficulties inherent in using first preference swings. First preference swings can be affected by the number and nature of candidates and parties contesting the by-election when compared with the previous general election.

Average first preference and two-party preferred vote swings for by-elections held between 1949 and March 2005 are given below. Swings cannot be calculated where one of the major parties (i.e. ALP or LP/NP Coalition) did not stand a candidate at the by-election or the preceding general election, or where the division was uncontested at the by-election or the preceding general election.

Average swings against government: by-elections 1949–2005

The average two-party preferred swing against the government of the day in all by-elections held during the period 1949 to 2005 was 4.0 per cent. The swing against ALP governments, 5.4 per cent, was somewhat higher than the swing against LP/NP Coalition governments, 3.4 per cent, while the swing against the government in government-held seats was 5.0 per cent. The average two-party preferred swing in by-elections caused by the death of the sitting member was half the swing in by-elections caused by the resignation of the member.

Two-party preferred swings at by-elections during the period have varied from an anti-government swing of 16.1 per cent (Canberra 1995) to a swing of 16.2 per cent to the government (McPherson 1981). The largest swing against an ALP Government was the Canberra figure, while the largest swing against a LP/(CP)NP Coalition Government was achieved when Gough Whitlam won Werriwa in 1952 with a 12.4 per cent swing. Two-party preferred swings to the government of the day are a rare event in by-elections, with only ten being recorded during the period. The largest swing to an ALP Government was in Wills in 1992 with a 5.9 per cent swing (although the ALP lost the seat to an independent candidate, P. Cleary) while the largest swing to a LP/NP Coalition Government was in McPherson, referred to above. Because the number of candidates contesting a by-election is generally larger than the number contesting the previous general election, first preference swings against the government tend to be higher than two-party preferred swings.

Two-party preferred swings, by-elections 1949–2005

n.a. not applicable

Personal and political matters⁽¹⁰⁾

A stark listing of 141 electoral contests can disguise the fact that many of them involved noteworthy personal and political matters that are part of Australia’s political history. Some of these are referred to below.

The changing of the old guard

A number of members were senior politicians before they entered the national Parliament, with this latter service being the swan-song for a number of them:

• The only convict to enter the Parliament, William Groom, died on 8 August 1901 soon after the opening of Parliament (Darling Downs 1901).
• Three aged Constitution-writers all died in the first decade: Edward Braddon (Wilmot 1904), Charles Cameron Kingston (Adelaide 1908) and Frederick Holder (Wakefield 1909). John Forrest (Swan 1918), by contrast, enjoyed a much longer Commonwealth career, which included several ministries, with four periods as Treasurer.

Future Prime Ministers

Six future Prime Ministers entered the House of Representatives via by-elections. For Stanley Melbourne Bruce (Flinders 1918), Harold Holt (Fawkner 1935), Arthur Fadden (Darling Downs 1936) and Gough Whitlam (Werriwa 1952) this saw their entry into Parliament for the first time. James Scullin (Yarra 1922) had already served a term during 1910–13, while John Gorton (Higgins 1968) had recently retired from the Senate.

The passing of Prime Ministers

The passing from Parliament of fifteen of the twenty-five MPs who have held the office of Prime Minister has been the trigger for a by-election:

• In two cases (Wilmot 1939, Fremantle 1945) the by-election followed the death of the Prime Minister while in office—Joe Lyons and John Curtin, respectively. The by-election in Higgins in 1968 was caused by the disappearance while swimming, of Prime Minister Harold Holt.
• Ben Chifley (Macquarie 1951) and Billy Hughes (Bradfield 1952) remained in Parliament after losing office, and both died while still MPs.
• Some early Prime Ministers resigned from Parliament to assume other positions. Andrew Fisher (Wide Bay 1915) and Joseph Cook (Parramatta 1921) both became Australian High Commissioner in London. S. M. Bruce had lost his seat in 1929, returned to the House in 1931, and left Parliament for good when he was appointed as Resident Minister in London (Flinders 1933).
• Since the departure of Robert Menzies (Kooyong 1966), John Gorton has been the only former Prime Minister not to have caused a by-election by his passing from the House of Representatives. John McEwen (Murray 1971), William McMahon (Lowe 1982) and Gough Whitlam (Werriwa 1978) all remained in Parliament for a time after ceasing to be Prime Minister before resigning from the House. By contrast, Malcolm Fraser (Wannon 1983), Bob Hawke (Wills 1992) and Paul Keating (Blaxland 1996) all resigned their seats very soon after their loss of office.

The passing of leaders of the Opposition

Of the thirteen Leaders of the Opposition who have never become Prime Minister, the passing from Parliament of seven has caused a by-election:

• Frank Tudor (Yarra 1922) died in office.
• H. V. Evatt (Hunter 1960), Bill Snedden (Bruce 1983), Bill Hayden (Oxley 1988), Andrew Peacock (Kooyong 1994), John Hewson (Wentworth 1995) and Mark Latham (Werriwa 2005) all left Parliament between general elections.

Family matters

Many MPs have been replaced by