Current Issues Brief Index 2002-03

Current Issues Brief No 13

Victorian Election 2002

Scott Bennett
Politics and Public Administration Group
Gerard Newman
Statistics Group

Contents

Abbreviations
Major Issues
Introduction
An election is called
The impact of a redistribution
The contestants

Election results

Appendix 1
Legislative Assembly By-elections 1999-2002
Appendix 2
Legislative Council By-elections 1999-2002
Appendix 3
Legislative Assembly Elections 1950-2002
Appendix 4
Legislative Council Elections 1952-2002

List of Tables

Abbreviations

Major Issues

This paper discusses an important Victorian election in which:

• the ALP gained its largest-ever Legislative Assembly majority
• the Liberal Party suffered its most severe defeat in fifty years
• the National Party almost lost its parliamentary party status
• the Greens performed well enough to suggest that they may be able to win a Senate seat at the next Commonwealth election, and
• the Bracks Government gained control of the Legislative Council, the first time a Labor Government has gained long-term control of the upper house.

The factors behind this remarkable outcome seem to include:

• the standing of the Bracks Labor Government-a Government that seemed to be on top of things, and which had not made any egregious mistakes
• the Premier was popular-even though his popularity had dropped during 2002, Steve Bracks was still sitting on a 56 per cent approval figure on the eve of the election
• Labor had to do well in the eastern and south-eastern Melbourne suburbs if it was to win a majority of seats, and it did so with ease
• the failure of the Liberal Party to put the surprise 1999 defeat behind it, a failure that meant that it had not done sufficient work on policy development
• an ongoing internal fight over the leadership which finally saw Denis Napthine replaced by Robert Doyle on election-eve
• an apparent failure by Doyle to make any positive mark with voters. Evidence suggested that many voters had quickly decided that they did not like the new leader, something that was probably relevant to an assessment of his campaign efforts, and
• the failure of the Shadow Treasurer to keep his electoral roll registration up-to-date.

Introduction

In our paper on the 1999 Victorian election we described that election as 'one of the most remarkable State elections of the last 50 years'.(1) At the risk of being accused of unoriginality, we believe that we can safely assert the same about the 2002 Victorian election, though for quite different reasons.

The earlier election removed the apparently impregnable Liberal-National Coalition Government, resulted in the retirement of two of the three party leaders, and pitchforked into office a party that was remarkably unprepared. It was also an election that was unusually prolonged.

In 2002, by contrast, there was no surprise about the outcome for the Bracks Government was comfortably returned, as expected. What made the result remarkable was the magnitude of the victory, combined with the parlous position of the two major conservative parties.

This paper gives a brief account of the election and makes some assessment of the factors that explain the outcome.

An election is called

Despite the next Victorian election not being due until 3 January 2004, on 4 November 2002 the Victorian Premier Steve Bracks announced that an election would be held on 30 November 2002.

The minority Bracks Labor Government was seeking to gain control of the Legislative Assembly; the Liberal Party was seeking to regain the government benches so surprisingly taken from it in the election of 1999. Nipping at the heels of both was the National Party, which had performed poorly in 1999 and was attempting to restore some electoral respectability, and the Greens, encouraged by the recent Green triumph in the New South Wales House of Representatives seat of Cunningham.

There was also a Legislative Council election. The Legislative Council is a 44-member body, based on 22 two-person electorates. Half of the Legislative Council is elected at the same time as the full membership of the Legislative Assembly. In 2002, however, not only was there a half-Council election, but as two of the MLCs elected in 1999 were retiring, there were also by-elections to replace each for the balance of their term.

The upper house had long been dominated by the non-Labor side of politics, and on this occasion few expected that the position would change.

The impact of a redistribution

A redistribution of Victoria's 88 Legislative Assembly districts and 22 Legislative Council provinces had been completed and was in place for the 2002 election. The redistribution threatened a marked alteration to the political landscape:

• some of Labor's seats had become nominally Liberal-these included Geelong, Yan Yean and Narracan
• on the Liberal side, Cranbourne had become nominally a Labor seat
• a number of Labor's seats-such as Seymour and Mitcham-had become highly marginal
• the seats of Bellarine, Frankston and Monbulk had become less safe for the Liberal Party
• the National seat of Wimmera was abolished
• the abolition of Susan Davies' seat of Gippsland West made the independent MP's chances of re-election very unlikely.

Overall, it seemed clear that Labor's vote had to increase for it to be sure of surviving, for an identical vote to its 45.6 per cent in 1999 would probably see it lose seats.(2)

All of this meant that Labor entered the election with a nominal 41 seats (44 actual), two of which were described as 'too close to call', the Liberals with 38 (35), and the Nationals 6 (6).(3) Although the opinion poll gap between the parties suggested that Labor would be able to comfortably overcome the impact of the redistribution, there was some press speculation that its effect would be to make the final seat margin closer than perhaps many expected. Apart from anything else occurring, however, it seemed unlikely that Labor would hold on to all of its surprise regional gains of 1999 and 2000-seats like Ripon, Seymour and Benalla.

The contestants

Australian Labor Party

Despite being in a minority position in the Parliament, the Bracks Government had managed the situation with little major difficulty. In the lower house the three independents (Russell Savage, Susan Davies and Craig Ingram) acted responsibly, giving the Government and the Parliament much stability.(4) The Legislative Council was controlled by the Liberal and National parties, and had caused the Government some angst, but essentially the Government had experienced relatively few problems in dealing with the upper house.

Above all else, the Bracks Government appeared determined to appear fiscally conservative. It was a moot point as to how much this was due to a desire to appear very different from the Cain-Kirner Governments, or whether it was essentially an indication of the cautious style of the Premier. Certainly it was very different from the Kennett Government's rather more flamboyant style. Although the Government's opponents and some commentators spoke of a cautious, do-nothing administration, obsessed with consultation and, therefore, extremely slow to do anything,(5) such criticism seemed not to hurt. The Age Poll gave it a 50 per cent approval rating during much of 2000 and 2001, and although it fell below this in the election year, by polling day its support seemed to be in the 47-48 per cent range, while another poll put Labor ahead of the Liberals in terms of 'economic management'.(6) Despite a journalist's claim that the election was 'up for grabs', a Labor victory had appeared highly likely a long way out from the election announcement-something that the Liberal campaign director acknowledged on the night of the election.(7)

Throughout its time in power the Labor Government retained a comfortable lead over the Liberal Party, with its opinion poll first preference figure usually close to, or slightly above, its 1999 first preference vote of 45.6 per cent. Its lead over the Liberal Party was usually in excess of ten per cent. The major exception was an Age Poll on the eve of the election announcement that suggested a drop in support for Labor to 40 per cent, though that was still eight per cent ahead of its main rival.(8)

Liberal Party

The Liberal Party had been stunned by the result in 1999, for most had expected that the Kennett Coalition Government would be comfortably returned.(9) In fact, if Premier Kennett had been prepared to accept the 'Charter of Independents' in its entirety, he may well have remained in office with the support of the three independents.(10)

After briefly toying with the possibility of remaining as leader of the Liberals, Kennett had stepped down, being replaced by Denis Napthine in late October 1999. For several months the opinion poll gap between the new Government and its opponents remained small, but unfortunately for the Liberals a clear gap had opened up by March 2000 which was never closed.(11) Napthine was unable to make any inroads into the popularity of the Premier and his Government with opinion polls soon suggesting a growing voter dissatisfaction with his performance.(12) As early as March 2000 there were press reports of unhappy Liberals discussing his replacement-names of possible challengers included Robert Doyle and Ted Baillieu.(13)

Eventually a successful push was made against Napthine on 20 August 2002, when Doyle was elected parliamentary leader, with Phil Honeywood replacing Louise Asher as deputy leader. As it turned out, the new leaders were to have just 102 days to pull their team together, to prepare and present a set of policies, and to make their mark in the electorate, before facing the electorate on 30 November.

VicNats

In 1999 the National Party's election return of 7 of 88 seats was meagre; fifty years earlier it had held over a quarter of the Legislative Assembly seats. By common consent, it had suffered during its period in coalition during the Kennett years apparently due to its presence within the Government being overlooked or ignored.

In December 1999 the party had replaced Pat McNamara with Peter Ryan as leader. Ryan came to office convinced of the need for his party to make it clearer to the electorate that it was not just an appendage of the Liberal Party: 'People want to be able to see us as an individual party'.(14) In August 2002 the party re-badged itself with a new logo and a new name: 'VicNats'. According to Ryan, the new look was designed to identify the Party as solely focused on country Victoria where, he reminded journalists, 25 per cent of the state's population was to be found.(15)

Despite this effort, opinion polls suggested the party looked to have little chance of increasing its parliamentary representation in any substantial way. Outside of the metropolitan area its opinion poll rating registered at less than ten per cent of voters.(16) By the time of the election, the decision of the Liberal Party to contest every seat seemed likely to further hurt the chances of the party's candidates. To add to the VicNats' difficulties the redistribution had abolished its seat of Wimmera. Despite all of the party's difficulties, however, Ryan expressed his confidence that the party would replace Wimmera with Lowan, and was optimistic of regaining Benalla, lost when the previous leader, Pat McNamara, left the Parliament in 2000. In the Legislative Council, though, there was a worry that the VicNats might at least lose the North Eastern province, and the by-election for Western Province gave them some concern.

Greens

The Victorian Greens approached this election with some confidence, boosted by their New South Wales colleagues' unexpected win in the by-election for the House of Representatives seat of Cunningham just six weeks before. Opinion polls had them hovering in the 10-12 per cent range, suggesting that they might have a significant impact on the election result, not least through their preferences.

In the 2001 Commonwealth House of Representatives election the highest Green vote had been the 15.7 per cent in the seat of Melbourne, while the next highest Victorian Green returns came in Batman (11.6 per cent), Melbourne Ports (11.3 per cent), Kooyong (10.7 per cent) and Higgins (8.8 per cent), all of which shared boundaries with Melbourne. These were all inner-Melbourne seats in which there seemed to be much support for Green-sponsored issues. In the State election the Greens believed the Green inner-city vote would play an important part in the electorates of Melbourne, Richmond, Northcote and Brunswick.

Australian Democrats

The Australian Democrats have not paid much attention to Victorian Legislative Assembly elections, running no candidates in 1995 and just six candidates in 1999 and 2002. They have concentrated their effort on upper house seats, winning a respectable 6.8 per cent from contesting 17 of 22 seats in 1999-not far from their 7.3 per cent in the 2001 Senate vote. In 2002 they were to contest 16 of 22 Legislative Council provinces, plus a by-election in another, though opinion polls suggested that their Victorian vote was diminishing.(17)

Independents

Unlike Susan Davies' position in Bass, the redistribution of seats after the previous election seemed to do no serious damage to the chances of Craig Ingram in Gippsland East or Russell Savage in Mildura. Ingram, in fact, had won the major concession of an increased flow of the Snowy River that began with the opening of the aqueduct near Jindabyne (NSW) on 28 August 2002, an event that was likely to help him lift his first preferences from the 24.8 per cent he gained in 1999.

The campaign

Australian Labor Party

The Government under Premier Steve Bracks entered the election contest with considerable confidence shown by the Premier's announcement of the election on the first possible day. One of his justifications for the announcement was the frustration of governing in a minority position: 'people often forget we are in a minority government'.(18) As noted above, the Premier's point was more a matter of rhetoric than in accord with reality for the minority position seemed not to have greatly influenced his Government's performance. In going early, Bracks was in fact ignoring the wishes of the independents and acting contrary to a commitment he had made to them to support a full four-year term, but he obviously believed this would not be held against his party, despite him having said in May that he had 'no plans to advance the [election] timetable'.(19)

The Labor campaign was typical of modern government campaigns. The party was well organised, with its activities very tightly scripted and designed to fit well on each day's evening news. Premier Bracks bore the brunt of the campaign as is usual with popular leaders, and as he made no serious mistakes, he achieved what party planners had hoped, namely a controversy-free ride back into office. The only mildly controversial promise was the pledge to phase out logging in the Otways and woodchipping in the Wombat forest, promises that drew criticism in the areas affected but not elsewhere.

The ALP campaign slogan attempted to capitalise on Bracks' popularity, while deflecting criticism of the Government being obsessed with inquiries rather than decisive action: 'Steve Bracks. Thinks. Acts'. The Government made some promises, but there was little that could be criticised as too extravagant or too risky. In fact, there was nothing in Labor's campaign to modify the view that State government campaigns are typically built upon the leader of the government, for 'the Premier is usually seen as crucial to a [State] government's chances of re-election'.(20)

Liberal Party

The Liberal campaign got off to an awkward beginning. Claims that violent crime had increased under Labor were proven to be incorrect, and the party briefly attempted to resurrect the 'guilty party' theme that had been used in the two Kennett victories. State director Brian Loughnane defended this by claiming that party polling indicated concerns in the community of a return to the Cain-Kirner style of economic management:

Effectively, neither this early foray, nor the replacement of Liberal leader, gave the party any sustained lift in the opinion polls upon which it might have been able to build. The Liberals struggled to gain the interest of the media in their policies, and seemed in danger of being lost in Labor's wake. It has been noticed elsewhere that if a State or Territory government appears to be in control of events and can successfully portray itself as more competent than its rivals, such a government is often able to entrench itself.(22) The Bracks Government seemed to be just such a government.

Doyle worked hard to achieve media attention with policies that were new and different, with some success:

• commuter train fares from Frankston and Geelong would be reduced
• his Government would effectively increase the allowable speed of traffic on freeways to 121 km/h
• he spoke of making ministers lodge annual reports
• recognising the problem of access to water for many farmers, he promised to turn off the Snowy River flow so recently turned on, in order to give Victorian farmers access to the water
• furthermore, Melbourne would be placed on permanent water restrictions to ease future water shortages, and
• stamp duty would be reduced, especially for new house buyers and small businesses.

During the campaign, however, the party suffered the bombshell of a frontbencher, Robert Dean, admitting that he was unable to contest his seat due to his failure to keep his electoral roll registration up-to-date. Dean was removed from the electoral roll when the Victorian Electoral Commission discovered he was not living at his nominated address in the seat of Gembrook.(23) The announcement came the day before Dean had been due to comment upon the Government's revised Budget figures, and Doyle was thus forced to listen to Treasurer John Brumby querying how the Liberal Party could hope to govern the state if its Shadow Treasurer could not attend to his own affairs. Doyle later spoke of the Dean bombshell as having caused the party to lose crucial momentum in its campaigning.(24)

If all of this was not difficult enough for the Liberal Party to deal with, it also had to shake off the presence of former Premier Jeff Kennett who still loomed large over Victorian politics. Whenever the Government boasted of its restoration of local services, or warned of the Liberals threatening to return to the 'bad old days', it was, by implication, referring to the former Liberal Premier and his Government. Labor television advertisements continually reminded voters of this. Labor advertisements also ran a tape of Kennett's public criticisms of Doyle's leadership qualifications that were made when Napthine's position was being challenged. Kennett clearly remained newsworthy: the press coverage of the Liberal policy launch gave undue space to his presence in the audience, while his departure from radio station 3AK in the last week of the campaign gained headlines that the Liberals would have preferred not to see.

As Labor's victory seemed more and more inevitable, Doyle began a stronger approach late in the campaign that was designed to minimise the size of the likely Labor majority:

• he warned of the collapse of the Victorian economy if Labor was re-elected
• he accused the Government of planning to introduce heroin injecting rooms, despite their denials
• claims were made that many suburban houses would be pulled down to be replaced by high-rise developments
• above all else, Doyle and fellow Liberals warned of a 'union free-for-all' were Bracks to be returned to power.(25) This claim took over Doyle's last week of campaigning, and pushed aside any last-minute promises that might otherwise have been made. In this Doyle was joined by other prominent Liberals, including Commonwealth Minister for Industrial Relations and Workplace Relations, Tony Abbott.

Eventually the Liberal Party seemed in fact to be conceding defeat when it produced an advertisement that began, 'If Labor wins easily next Saturday...'. Some Liberals were reported as resentful of what they saw as a defeatist approach.(26) A slightly different approach was that of Liberal MHR, Petro Georgiou, who warned of what lay ahead were the returning Labor Government to also gain control of the Legislative Council:

VicNats

Peter Ryan used the campaign to push further the idea that his party was a player separate from the Liberal Party. He undertook a great deal of campaigning across rural Victoria, repeatedly assuring voters that if he were to find himself in coalition negotiations with the Liberals he would be demanding certain non-negotiable concessions. Such assertions forced Doyle to respond to his claims.(28) By the end of the campaign Ryan was speaking of a non-negotiable fund of $1.5 billion in targetted rural spending that would be the price of any coalition with the Liberals, with an associated delay of several city projects.(29) Despite all of Ryan's labours, however, the key question for the party was whether or not it could maintain official parliamentary party status by winning at least eleven parliamentary seats in both houses.

The result-Legislative Assembly

Labor won 62 of the 88 seats, the Liberal Party won 17 and the VicNats won seven. Two of the three independents, Russell Savage and Craig Ingram, were re-elected.

The Legislative Assembly election was remarkable in a number of ways:

• Labor won its largest-ever proportion of Legislative Assembly seats (70.5 per cent); in recent times the only results to come close this were the Hamer Liberal victories of 1973 (63 per cent) and 1976 (64.2 per cent)
• despite this, Labor's first preferences (47.9 per cent) did not match the 50 per cent totals achieved by John Cain Jr in 1982 and 1985
• on the other hand, Labor's two-party preferred vote of 58.3 per cent and the two-party preferred swing to it of 8.1 per cent were both party records, and topped the figures achieved ten years before by the Liberal Party
• Labor mirrored the 1982 effort of John Cain Jr in winning seats to the east and south-east of Melbourne city
• the Liberal vote of 33.9 per cent was the party's lowest vote since 1952 (24.9 per cent), and was twelve per cent behind its best-ever tally in 1976 (45.9 per cent)
• the Liberal front bench was decimated. Apart from Dean's earlier disappearance, among those defeated were Leonie Burke (local government and women's affairs), Ian Cover (sport and recreation, racing and youth affairs), Lorraine Elliott (arts and community services), Carlo Furletti (natural resources and energy), Geoff Leigh (transport), Wendy Smith (small business) and Ron Wilson (health)
• in 1999 the National Party's twelve candidates garnered 4.8 per cent of the State vote. In 2002 the VicNats' sixteen candidates managed just 4.3 per cent. In the non-metropolitan region its vote of 11.6 per cent was a fall of 1.9 percentage points. Its 12 parliamentary seats (7 in the Legislative Assembly, 5 in the Legislative Council) meant that it retained parliamentary party status
• the Green tally of 9.7 per cent was the highest non-major party tally since the Democratic Labor Party's 13.3 per cent in 1970. Despite winning significant first preference votes in Richmond (28.6 per cent), Northcote (25.4 per cent), Brunswick (24.3 per cent), Melbourne (24.2 per cent) and Hawthorn (19.8 per cent), no Green won a seat, though in Richmond and Melbourne a Green candidate outlasted the Liberal candidate in the count.

The result-Legislative Council

The electorate arrangements for the Legislative Council had long made it difficult for Labor to win a majority of Legislative Council seats being contested in a particular election. Few in the ALP seemed to believe these could be overcome-least of all in one cycle of elections. Labor needed to win 15 of the 22 seats being contested if it was to gain control of the Council. This really seemed unlikely, though some journalists believed it could be done, and as already noted the Liberal Party's Petro Georgiou clearly believed it a strong possibility.

The result was quite extraordinary, for Labor won 17 of the 22 seats increasing its membership from 14 to 25, giving it control of the chamber. This was almost unprecedented, for the ALP had previously controlled the upper house only for a few weeks following the election of 1985.(30) Seats such as Western Port Province and Monash Province had never before been won by the party.

The Liberals retained just three of the 13 seats they had held, and the VicNats won two seats. Liberal retention of East Yarra and VicNat retention of Western Province in by-elections meant that the non-Labor parties now held 19 seats (30 previously).

Despite concentrating on the upper house, the Australian Democrats performed weakly. This can be well illustrated by comparing their 1999 and 2002 figures:

• in 1999 they contested 17 seats, gained 190 940 votes, and had a statewide vote of 6.8 per cent
• in 2002 their vote in 16 seats(31) was now only 51 710 votes for a State-wide figure of 1.8 per cent.

It is hard to know just how much effort the party's Victorian office put into this campaign, for the Australian Democrats were barely heard or seen during the campaign.

Explaining the outcome-Legislative Assembly

The standing of the Government

Incumbent Commonwealth and State governments tend to be returned in Australia. In the past fifty years there have been just eight one-term governments.(32) In that period governments have been returned in 68.1 per cent of all elections-the Victorian figure has been 68.8 per cent. A government that seems to be on top of things, and which has not made any egregious errors, can usually count on being returned for another term, and the opinion polls had long suggested that this would be the case for the Bracks Government. All of which probably goes towards explaining why a Herald Sun editorial gave an unprecedented vote of support for Labor.(33) As Georgiou put it:

Former ALP national secretary Bob Hogg expressed no surprise at the result, claiming that it was:

The Premier

The Government was headed by a popular Premier. Early in Labor's term opinion poll returns suggested that in excess of 70 per cent of voters were satisfied with Steve Bracks' performance. Even though this dropped during 2002, he was still sitting on a 56 per cent approval figure on the eve of the election; for most of that time his opponent, whether Napthine or Doyle, was struggling to gain an approval rating of 30 per cent.(36) Polling in five marginal seats suggested that Bracks had a strong appeal for female voters.(37)

Labor strategists made a great deal of use of this positive image, and a number of Liberal candidates noted how the Bracks image appeared everywhere during the campaign. Overall, the Liberals seemed to have as much trouble coping with Bracks' popularity as Labor did with Premier Jeff Kennett's standing in the 1996 poll. Even Prime Minister John Howard later stated that the Liberal Party was 'never going to win' against Bracks.(38)

The importance of winning across Melbourne

Labor's minority victory in 1999 was something of a fluke. For Labor to gain control of the Legislative Assembly they would normally need to build on their core Melbourne seats west of the Yarra by gaining a substantial number of the Melbourne seats east and south-east of the city centre, as John Cain Jr did in the election of 1982 that gave the party its first Assembly majority since 1952.(39) The 1999 victory saw them patch together enough seats from virtually everywhere else in Victoria except these suburbs to be able to reach a deal with the three independents-the coalition parties actually had a larger representation in the Legislative Assembly than did the ALP.

On this occasion a breakthrough east of the Yarra was essential, for Labor could not be certain of holding its surprise regional gains. The party did so quite spectacularly, pushing the Liberal Party out of some seats that had been held for a decade or more. Apart from Scoresby, Labor now holds a swathe of eastern Melbourne seats running from Mitcham and Kilsyth, through Monbulk, Gembrook and Narre Warren South, to Frankston and Hastings. These will be the seats which the Liberals will need to win back if they are to regain office in the next election.

The Liberals

It had long seemed clear that the Liberal Party would lose this election, so that the key aspects of their defeat would appear to be long term.

A refusal to accept the 1999 result

Some Liberals and various commentators spoke of the party's collective failure to cope with the unexpected loss of government in 1999. According to Prime Minister Howard the Victorian Liberals 'spent too long pretending that somehow or another it had been an accident that Kennett was defeated'.(40) This difficulty was said to have made the party defensive and reluctant to criticise the Kennett Government.

The Kennett legacy

As referred to above, a number of Labor Party advertisements referred disparagingly to the Kennett Government. This was presumably because Labor believed it could get the same mileage out of reminding voters of the former Premier, as Kennett himself had done with his 'Guilty Party' advertisements referring to the Cain-Kirner years. At least one writer has speculated that the Liberal loss of Kennett's seat in the Burwood by-election was an indication of Melburnians making up their minds against Kennett, and that this was still a potent factor in the 2002 election.(41)

Leadership infighting

Opinion polls between the two elections suggested that the Liberal arguments over the leadership did not help the party, particularly as it only ended with Doyle's election on 20 August, barely ten weeks before the announcement of the election. Defeated Monbulk MP, Steve McArthur, believed it was an important factor in the result, comparing the Victorian infighting with similar battles in the New South Wales party.(42) It can be argued that if Napthine had needed to be replaced as many had claimed, then it should have been done much earlier in order to enable the party to present a united front to the electorate. This would also have given it more time to present a well-thought-through set of policies. For a long time policy seemed to be the last thing on people's minds, leading to Peter Costello's post-election comment that: 'You do not fatten a pig on market day, you work it up over a parliamentary term'.(43)

Robert Doyle's leadership

Some Liberals maintained after the election that Robert Doyle had no responsibility for the huge Liberal defeat-in fact, it was claimed that he had rescued the party from an even greater catastrophe. The same view stated that Doyle's pushing of the anti-union strategy late in the election had played a part in this rescue.(44)

In light of such a view, Newspoll figures make interesting reading:

• in September-October 2002 the Labor vote was 41 per cent with the Liberal vote only three points behind
• in that poll's assessment of Doyle his 'uncommitted' figure was 40 per cent
• 30 per cent were 'dissatisfied' with his performance
• by late November, however, the 'dissatisfied' figure was now 44 per cent, most of which had come from the 'uncommitted' column.(45)

This suggests that many voters had quickly decided that they did not like the new leader, something that is probably relevant to an assessment of his campaign efforts. During the campaign there were comments about his born-to-rule voice and manner, and even the style of his pinstripe suits brought comment-possibly explaining his increasingly being seen later in the campaign in shirt sleeves. The image issue was serious enough for Doyle's wife to agree to a press interview in which she denied that her husband was a 'toff'.(46)

The Dean fiasco

It is tempting to see the Dean blunder as intimately connected with the election result. Indeed, two journalists proclaimed it 'the defining incident of the 2002 election campaign'.(47) For Liberals it probably is comforting to be able to blame the 'derailing' of their campaign on this extraordinary occurrence.(48) They speak of private polling which indicated that their campaign had managed to close the gap on Labor until the Dean news broke, after which the gap opened up that the Liberals were unable to close. Without access to such figures it is impossible to be certain, but the longer-term factors already mentioned suggest that it had always been unlikely that the Liberal Party could win the 2002 contest. The day the Dean affair became public may well have been 'the day donations to the Liberals dried up', but it was probably not a major cause of Labor's victory.(49)

The Greens

If there had been any doubts before, the Greens showed they have arrived as an important player in Victorian politics. They produced very respectable votes in several inner-Melbourne seats, and several Assembly and Council seats were finally decided on their preferences. They were at their strongest in inner-city electorates, however, and the further out they moved from central and near-northern Melbourne, the lower was their vote.

Electorates of interest

Bass

Independent MLA Susan Davies' seat of Gippsland West had been abolished, leaving her the task of winning the new seat of Bass, some of which had been in Gippsland West, but much of which had not. Davies' major problem was the difficult task of winning enough votes in Pakenham, a town that had not been in her seat and which now composed one-fifth of the electorate. Professor Brian Costar noted that she needed to wage a rural campaign in West Gippsland and an urban campaign in Pakenham.(50) Davies' chances seemed not to be helped by the decision of the victims-of-crime campaigner, Kay Nesbit, to contest the seat as an independent.

In 1999 Davies had received over one-third of first preferences in Gippsland West, but on this occasion no booth returned so high a figure-whether from the old Gippsland West or not. Davies in fact came third on preferences behind the Liberal and Labor candidates with barely one fifth of the vote, and was eliminated during the count of preferences. Her vote averaged just 13 per cent in the Pakenham booths, and although this Pakenham effort was described as 'the key' to the result, it is rather more significant to note her poor performance across the electorate.(51) The seat was won narrowly on preferences by the Liberals' Ken Smith, the former MLC for South Eastern Province.

Benalla

In the 1999 election the National Party leader, Pat McNamara, comfortably retained the seat of Benalla, defeating Labor's Denise Allen (42.6 per cent) in a two-candidate contest. In the by-election following McNamara's resignation, Allen surprised by defeating the Nationals' Bill Sykes on preferences despite her first preference vote falling to 42.1 per cent. This was the first time the Labor Party had won the seat.

In the 2002 election Allen was likely to have another battle with Sykes who re-nominated for the VicNats, but the contest was now four-way, for a Liberal and a Green also nominated. Although Allen's first preference vote fell again (42.1 per cent) she still led Sykes (26.5 per cent) and Dwyer (26.1 per cent) comfortably. Although Allen gained 70 per cent of Green preferences, her vote was still only 45.6 per cent, well below the figure needed for victory. Sykes remained ahead of the Liberal at this stage, and in a model of how the classic three-cornered contest can work to the benefit of the two major non-Labor parties, Liberal preferences now saw the VicNat comfortably elected with a two-party preferred vote of 52 per cent. Allen had fallen too far below the 50 per cent mark for Green preferences to get her over the line.

Forest Hill

In 1999 the Liberal Party's John Richardson won Forest Hill comfortably, gaining 55.9 per cent of first preferences. The redistribution of seats trimmed some of the retiring Richardson's two-party preferred margin, but the replacement for the long-term sitting member (since 1976), Vasan Srinivasan, still enjoyed a 6.4 per cent two-party preferred buffer.

Earlier in the year the Labor Party had been approached by Olympic and World Cup skier Kirstie Marshall seeking nomination for an Assembly seat. The tyro politician had been allocated Forest Hill, a seat based on Blackburn South and Vermont South. After an awkward start, when she admitted to not knowing the electorate or its issues, the pregnant Marshall reportedly campaigned hard, but expressed doubt that she could win the seat. Her first preference vote of 47.1 per cent led her opponent by over eight per cent, and she won the seat comfortably on preferences. Although her victory can be seen as part of the remarkable Labor sweep through the eastern suburbs, she had reported a high level of voter familiarity with her background, so there may have been a higher personal factor in the vote she received than would be usual for a first-time candidate.(52)

Geelong

Geelong had a symbolic importance for the Bracks Government. If Geelong sitting member, Ian Trezise, had received nine fewer votes in 1999 the Liberal Party would have won the seat-and Jeff Kennett probably would have hung onto power. In 2002 Trezise's task seemed harder, for the redistribution of seats saw Geelong become a nominal Liberal seat, though its claimed margin of 0.5 per cent did not pose too difficult a hurdle if Labor were to do well on election day.

The Liberal Party made a determined push to win the seat. It promised to build the ring road around the city that had been long promised by government, and it guaranteed the construction of a railway station at Grovedale designed to speed commuter journeys into Melbourne. During the campaign period Doyle surprised Labor by promising a reduction in commuter rail fares to and from Melbourne. The Liberals believed that their candidate, Stretch Kontelj, brought two important strengths-he had been a mayor of Geelong and was a member of a strong Slovenian community.(53)

At the close of counting the Liberal effort was all in vain for Trezise won on first preferences, over twelve per cent ahead of Kontelj. With Labor also retaining Lara and picking up the Liberal seats of South Barwon and Bellarine, it thus holds all four Geelong-dominated Assembly seats, plus both Geelong Province Legislative Council seats.(54)

Gembrook

On 13 November 2002 Gembrook appeared to be a certain victory for the Liberal Party. It had a cushion of seven per cent following the redistribution and was being contested by the Shadow Treasurer, Robert Dean, formerly MLA for Berwick, part of which was now in the new seat. When the news broke of Dean's non-candidacy, the Liberals moved quickly to nominate the sitting MLC for Eumemmerring Province since 1996, Neil Lucas, so seemed to have rescued the situation.

The result was the election of a surprised Tammy Lobato for the ALP, despite her having won only 41.5 per cent of the first preferences. Lucas won 43.9 per cent but was swamped by the 71.2 per cent of Green preferences that flowed to Labor, giving Lobato a two-party preferred vote of 51.6 per cent. The Dean affair may have given the Labor Party two scalps, for Adem Somyurek won Lucas' old upper house seat of Eumemmerring Province, though the final margin suggested that Labor may have won the seat whomever stood for the Liberals.

Macedon

The seat of Gisborne had been held by the Liberal Party since 1967 until Labor's Joanne Duncan had surprised by winning the seat from Kennett minister, Rob Knowles, in 1999. It was one of the handful of regional seats that had pushed Labor to its narrow electoral victory. Unfortunately for Duncan, Gisborne was abolished in the redistribution of seats. She nominated for Macedon, a nominal Liberal seat, and one in which only 51 per cent of voters came from her old seat. The remainder of the voters came from the former neighbouring seat of Tullamarine.

Based on 1999 votes Duncan would need a swing of about 0.4 per cent to win the new seat, and various commentators saw Macedon as one which the Government might have some difficulty in winning, particularly as Duncan's main opponent was Bernie Finn, MLA for Tullamarine from 1992 to 1999.(55) Despite Finn's campaign beginning ingloriously when he broke his ankle four days after the election announcement, he was probably never really in the hunt, for Duncan won the seat easily on primary votes, reflecting other comfortable Labor victories in the adjacent seats of Melton, Seymour and Yuroke. Over the two elections, Labor has gained an increase in its Macedon Ranges vote of approximately 20 per cent.(56)

Melbourne

Some Greens wondered if they had a chance to win the inner-city seat of Melbourne, a seat bounded by East Melbourne, Carlton North, Flemington and the Maribrynong River. As already noted, a Green candidate had done well in the House of Representatives seat of Melbourne in 2001 and it was felt that this support could be built on. Labor's Bronwyn Pike held the seat, and if her first preference vote could be brought well below 50 per cent, she might be beaten on preferences. An unpredictable element was the candidacy of a former Melbourne City councillor, Kevin Chamberlin, standing as an independent, who seemed likely to take a sizeable parcel of votes. The major issue that could hurt Labor was the Government's decision to use the Royal Park Psychiatric Hospital site for the Commonwealth Games village in 2006.

In the event, Pike's vote did fall below half (45.3 per cent), the Greens' Richard di Natale winning 24.2 per cent (the Green vote in Cunningham had been 23 per cent) and Chamberlin winning 6 per cent. Unlike Cunningham, however, where the absence of a Liberal candidate had played a crucial part in aiding the Green victory, the Liberals ran a candidate who won 21 per cent. Enough of her preferences (21.5 per cent) flowed to Pike for the sitting member to win narrowly by 1092 votes. Pike's two-party preferred vote of 51.9 per cent was 11.9 per cent less than it had been in 1999.

Mitcham

Despite being won in 1997 by Labor in a by-election during the later Kennett years, Mitcham has been something of a litmus seat since 1967. At each general election the party winning the seat has formed the government, though the 1999 result almost ended that record. Labor's Tony Robinson had finished two per cent behind his Liberal challenger, but squeaked back into Parliament by just 343 votes after preferences. The redistribution of electorates saw Labor entering the election nominally holding the seat by just six votes. Green preferences were therefore likely to be important in determining the outcome.

Mitcham remained with the Labor Party, though the movement of votes to Labor was not as strong as in some other eastern Melbourne seats. Robinson's first preference vote climbed just 2.7 per cent and unlike in many other seats, Labor finished the first count with fewer than half the votes (47.9 per cent). The sitting member was successful as a consequence of the Liberal vote collapsing by nearly ten per cent, and of Labor gaining three-quarters of the Green candidate's preferences.

Morwell

The Bracks Government's promise to end logging in the Otway ranges brought out much timber worker hostility. After toying with nominating for the Labor marginals of Geelong or Narracan, Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union organiser for Gippsland, Brad Platschinda, decided to challenge Labor in the Gippsland seat of Morwell, a seat where the union was said to have more than 1200 members. A resident of Moe, Platschinda accused Labor of chasing Green votes at the expense of its long-term supporters. He was likely to strip valuable votes from Labor, especially as the sitting member, Bracks minister Keith Hamilton, was retiring from Parliament. It seemed implausible to suppose that this candidacy would be enough to shake the ALP's strong hold over the seat, but Labor's candidate, Brendan Jenkins, faced a more-than-usually-awkward contest, for he also faced Liberal, VicNat and Green candidates, plus another independent.(57)

Platschinda managed 14.5 per cent of the vote, no doubt causing much of the fall in the Labor vote of 12.2 per cent which forced Jenkins to preferences. During the count there were reports of the VicNat candidate possibly stealing the seat from fourth position, but that was never really likely and Jenkins finally gained 54.9 per cent of the two-party preferred vote ahead of the Liberal candidate. This was just 4 per cent less than the ALP's final figure in 1999.

Shepparton

In 1999 the Mayor of Greater Shepparton, Chris Hazelman, had contested Shepparton as an independent, running second (35.4 per cent) to the National sitting member, Don Kilgour (39 per cent) on first preferences. Unfortunately for Hazelman, Labor directed preferences to the VicNat candidate and Kilgour gained the victory-57.4 per cent of Labor preferences had lifted him over the line. In 2002 Hazelman re-nominated, and there was much speculation that he was now likely to win the seat due to a combination of Kilgour's retirement and Labor's decision to direct second preferences to him. Relatively little attention seemed to be paid to the chances of the former member for North Eastern Province, Jeanette Powell, who was contesting for the VicNats, or the fact that the Liberals also nominated a candidate, unlike in 1999.

The contest in fact turned out to be between Powell and the Liberal Party's Stephen Merrylees, with the Liberal leading on first preferences by 1.2 per cent. Hazelman came fourth, nearly six per cent behind the Labor candidate and with less than half of the vote he had secured three years earlier, suggesting that he had gained many Liberal supporters on that occasion. At the end of counting Powell had gained a total of 61.9 per cent of distributed preferences to win the seat comfortably.

South-West Coast

Former Liberal leader, Denis Napthine, had seen his seat of Portland abolished in the mid-election redistribution. He nominated for South-West Coast, and in doing so increased his safety margin slightly from 4.5 per cent to 4.7 per cent in two-party preferred terms. Napthine's performance was watched with interest. Might his poor popularity rating as party leader flow through into his own personal vote, giving the Labor Party a most unexpected victory?

Napthine (40.3 per cent) in fact trailed Labor's Roy Reekie by one per cent on first preferences. He had failed to win a booth in the two major centres of Portland (where he resides) and Warrnambool, but had clung on to his opponent by gaining a healthy vote in rural booths. Unfortunately for Reekie the Green vote of seven per cent, while helpful, could not push him over the line, and Napthine won the seat when 71.5 per cent of VicNat preferences enabled him to pass his opponent. Napthine expressed himself 'satisfied' with the result and noted, ironically, that he had

Explaining the result-Legislative Council

Apart from the impact of the factors already mentioned in regard to the Legislative Assembly result, particular factors that aid our understanding of the Council outcome appear to have been:

• Labor's State vote rose by a healthy 5.3 percentage points to 47.5 per cent. It was Labor's third-highest Legislative Council vote
• the collapse of the Liberal vote was important-its 34.5 per cent return was 5.2 percentage points lower than in 1999-and 9.5 per cent below its 1996 figure
• although the Green vote for Legislative Council seats was a healthy 10.9 per cent-1.2 per cent higher than in Assembly seats-did not seriously impact upon Labor votes, for the Labor Legislative Council vote was only 0.5 per cent below its lower house return
• Labor's strong result across the eastern and south-eastern Melbourne suburbs, which enabled it to overcome the usual Liberal hegemony in that part of the city, helped in upper house electorates as well as for the Legislative Assembly
• Labor surprised by picking up some regional upper house seats never before won.

The dust settles

It is often tempting to see particular large election victories as the start of an electoral dynasty-and the response to the Kennett victories in 1992 and 1996 gives examples of that. Without wanting to exaggerate the Bracks victory in 2002, at the very least the extent of the victory suggests that, barring an implosion within the Government, the Liberal Party will find it difficult to regain office in the next election. A great many Labor victories were achieved on first preferences and were clear-cut. If the new members for seats like Forest Hill, Gembrook, Mordialloc and Kilsyth can dig in and establish a positive presence in their seats, the Liberals may find it difficult to regain office, at least within the period of one term.

Endnotes

1. Scott Bennett and Gerard Newman, 'Victorian Election 1999', Research Paper No. 19, Department of the Parliamentary Library, Canberra, 1999-2000, p. 1.
2. Ewin Hannan, 'Bracks looks good-so did Kennett', Age, 9 September 2002.
3. The independents' standing could not be calculated since the electorates they were contesting now included areas that had not had them on the ballot paper in 1999.
4. Adrian Rollins, 'Backing a winner', Age, 16 October 2000.
5. See for example, Ewin Hannan, 'Promises made, kept and broken', Age, 12 March 2002.
6. John Ferguson, 'Education, health top poll issues', Herald Sun, 25 November 2002.
7. Shaun Carney, 'The prosperity poll', Age, 5 November 2002. For a view that the election looked 'set to be a tighter contest than many had imagined three months ago', see Antony Green, 'Election summary', http://abc.net.au/public/elections/2002vic/summary.htm. For Brian Loughnane's comment, see Sunday Age, 1 December 2002.
8. See opinion poll details in Age, 30 August 2000, 19 July 2001, 18 November 2002.
9. Andrew Clark, Farah Farouque and Nicole Brady, 'State of shock? No, bemused', Age, 25 October 1999.
10. Woodward and Costar, op. cit., pp. 131-2.
11. Age, 3 March, 29 March 2000.
12. See e.g. NewsPoll figures, Australian, 20 November 2002.
13. Ewin Hannan, 'Liberals, Kroger meet on Napthine', Age, 15 March 2000.
14. Ewin Hannan, 'Reinventing the Nats', Age, 22 March 2000.
15. 'Nationals Unveil New Image', Hon. Peter Hall MLC VicNats Media Release, [no date, but August 2002].
16. See e.g. Age Polls for 31 October-1 November 2002 and 15-16 November 2002.
17. 'Row hurt party's image, Herald Sun, 13 November 2002.
18. Attorney-General Rob Hulls quoted in Adrian Rollins, 'Backing a winner', Age, 16 October 2000.
19. Alison Crosweller, 'Bracks warned against going to polls early', Australian, 15 February 2002; Mark Skulley, 'Bracks denies early poll plan, Australian Financial Review, 9 May 2002.
20. Scott Bennett, Affairs of State. Politics in the Australian States and Territories, Allen and Unwin, Sydney, 1992, p. 189.
21. Ewin Hannan, 'Libs guilty of adopting old tactics', Age, 5 November 2002; Amanda Keenan, 'Lib statistics backfire again', Australian, 16 September 2002. See also advertisement, 'Mr Bracks, you've given us record taxes', Age, 2 September 2002.
22. Scott Bennett, 'Parties and elections', in Brian Galligan (ed.), Australian State Politics, Longman Cheshire, Melbourne, 1986, p. 220.
23. 'So where, exactly, do you live, Dr Dean?', editorial, Age, 15 November 2002.
24. Karen Kissane, 'Robert Doyle, Age, 29 November 2002.
25. Larissa Dubecki and Ewin Hannan, 'Liberals opt for tough line on jobs', Age, 2 November 2002.
26. Ewin Hannan, 'Doyle turns to cynical scare tactics', Age, 29 November 2002.
27. Petro Georgiou, 'Labor landslide poses a threat to democracy', Age, 29 November 2002.
28. Fay Burstin and Ashley Gardiner, 'We'd knock back power, say Nats', Herald Sun, 29 November 2002.
29. Mark Skulley, 'Vic Nats name coalition price', Australian Financial Review, 26 November 2002.
30. For the circumstances of this brief Labor control of the upper house, see Paul Rodan, 'Victoria', Australian Journal of Politics and History, vol. 32, no. 2, 1986, pp. 275-77.
31. Not including the by-elections the party contested.
32. Cain (Vic, ALP, 1952-5), Borbidge (Qld, Nat-Lib, 1996-8), Tonkin (WA, ALP, 1971-4), Walsh (SA, ALP, 1965-8), Hall (SA, Lib, 1968-70), Tonkin (SA, Lib, 1979-82), Bethune (Tas, Lib-Centre, 1969-72), Field (Tas, ALP, 1989-92).
33. 'Needed, a clear winner', Editorial, Herald Sun, 29 November 2002.
34. Petro Georgiou, 'It's David v. Goliath for the vanquished', Age, 2 December 2002.
35. Bob Hogg, 'Waiting for Costello is a poor strategy for Labor', Australian Financial Review, 2 January 2003.
36. See Newspoll figures, Australian, 3 May, 30 October 2002.
37. Jennifer Hewett, 'Bracks makes Greens, and husbands, jealous', Sydney Morning Herald, 29 November 2002.
38. Sophie Douez, 'We were never going to beat Bracks: PM', Age, 2 December 2002.
39. For the importance of performing well in the eastern and south-eastern suburbs, see Nick Economou, 'East, south-east could point to poll pain for Bracks', Sunday Age, 3 November 2002.
40. John Howard quoted in Andrew Probyn, 'PM blasts lazy state colleagues', Herald Sun, 2 December 2002; see also Bernie Finn, former MLA for Tullamarine, Kilmore Free Press, 4 December 2002.
41. Graham Young, 'What happened in the Victorian election', On Line opinion, 4 December 2002, http://onlineopinion.com.au/2002/Dec02/Young.htm.
42. 'McArthur blames Greens', Knox Journal, 4 December 2002.
43. Peter Costello quoted in Ross Peake, 'Vic Libs savaged over election loss', Canberra Times, 2 December 2002.
44. Karen Kissane, 'The day after, and blame sweeps through the Liberal ranks', Age, 2 December 2002.
45. Mike Steketee, 'No danger to Premier', Weekend Australian, 30 November-1 December 2002.
46. 'Fay Burstin, 'He's smart but he's not a toff', Herald Sun, 28 November 2002; see also John Ferguson, 'Hopes riding on a great unknown', Herald Sun, 5 November 2002, Shaun Carney, 'Playing the role of a lifetime', Age, 23 November 2002.
47. Ewin Hannan and Shaun Carney, 'The day Liberal donations dried up', Age, 2 December 2002.
48. See for example views of former Liberal MPs Ron Wilson, Gary Rowe and Steve McArthur, Fay Burstin and John Ferguson, 'Libs sharpen their knives', Herald Sun, 2 December 2002, 'Floodgates open', Cranbourne Independent, 4 December 2002, and 'McArthur blames Greens', Knox Journal, 4 December 2002.
49. Hannan and Carney, op. cit.
50. Brian Costar, 'Independents could again hold the key', Sunday Age, 10 November 2002.
51. Shannon McRae, 'Bass still "too close to call" ', South Gippsland Sentinel Times, 3 December 2002.
52. Genevieve Brammall, 'Kirstie's jumping with joy', Herald Sun 2 December 2002; Amanda Keenan, 'Skier walking on air after victory', Australian, 2 December 2002.
53. Paul Heinrichs, 'Battle for Geelong where 16 votes gave it to Labor last time', Age, 24 November 2001.
54. 'Region joins big switch to Labor', Geelong News, 3 December 2002.
55. 'Seat opened by changes to boundary', Macedon Ranges-Sunbury Leader, 12 November 2002.
56. 'Duncan sweeps to victory', Kilmore Free Press, 4 December 2002.
57. Paul Robinson, 'Timber unionist to tackle Labor', Age, 11 November 2002; see also Amanda Keenan, 'Logger has axe to grind', Australian, 12 November 2002.
58. Greg Best, 'Napthine victorious', Warrnambool Standard, 6 December 2002.

Election results

Table 1a Legislative Assembly, Seats Won

Table 1b Legislative Council, Seats Won

Table 2 Legislative Assembly, State Summary

(a) Excludes Gippsland East, Melbourne, Mildura and Shepparton Districts.

Table 3 Legislative Assembly, Region Summary

(a) Excludes Melbourne District.