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Current Issues Brief 14 2000-01

Western Australian Election 2001: Statistical Analysis

Gerard Newman
Statistics Group
3 April 2001

Contents


Table 1 Legislative Assembly: State Summary
Table 2a Legislative Assembly: Party Summary Number
Table 2b Legislative Assembly: Party Summary Per cent
Table 3 Legislative Assembly District Details
Table 4 Legislative Assembly: Two Party Preferred Votes
Table 5 Legislative Assembly: Electoral Pendulum
Table 6 Legislative Council: State Summary
Table 7 Legislative Council: Region Summary
Table 8 Legislative Council: Members Elected
Table 9 Legislative Council: Candidate Details
Table 10 Legislative Assembly Elections 1950-2001
Appendix: Estimating the Direction of One Nation and Green Preferences

 

Party Symbols and Abbreviations

*

Sitting member

#

Party holding seat

AD

Australian Democrats

ALP

Australian Labor Party

CDP

Christian Democratic Party

DLP

Democratic Labor Party

GRN

The Greens (WA)

IND

Independents

LP

Liberal Party

NP

National Party

PHON

Pauline Hanson's One Nation

Introduction

This paper presents a statistical analysis of the Western Australian election held on 10 February 2001. A descriptive account of the election has been previously published by the Parliamentary Library in 'Western Australian Election 2001' , Glenn Worthington, Current Issues Brief No. 10 2000-01.

The paper provides details of the result in each Legislative Assembly district and votes for each candidate in the Legislative Council. Summary tables for first preference and two candidate preferred votes are also provided.

An analysis of the destination of One Nation and Green preferences is contained in an appendix to the paper. The paper shows that despite receiving only 37.2 per cent of the first preference vote, the ALP easily won the election after receiving over 55 per cent of second preference votes from other parties. The paper estimates that the ALP received 51.8 per cent of One Nation preferences and 68.1 per cent of Green preferences.

Table 1 Legislative Assembly: State Summary

 

Candidates

Seats Won

First Preference Votes

Change from 1996

Number

Per cent

Seats

Votes

Australian Labor Party

56

32

382 308

37.24

+13

+1.42

Liberal Party

54

16

319 927

31.16

-13

-8.74

National Party

11

5

33 450

3.26

-1

-2.53

Pauline Hanson's One Nation

54

98 321

9.58

+9.58

Greens WA

51

74 641

7.27

+2.54

Australian Democrats

38

27 102

2.64

-2.44

Christian Democratic Party

13

9 893

0.96

+0.96

Independents

89

4

81 078

7.90

+1

-0.77

Formal Votes

1 026 720

95.46

-0.15

Informal Votes

48 836

4.54

+0.15

Total/Turnout

366

57

1 075 556

90.56

+0.57

Electors Enrolled

1 187 629

 

Table 2a Legislative Assembly: Party Summary
Number

District

First Preference Votes

Formal Votes

Informal Votes

Turnout

Electors Enrolled

ALP

LP

NP

PHON

GRN

AD

OTH

Albany

3 960

4 141

2 035

1 060

1 335

12 531

561

13 092

14 262

Alfred Cove

7 150

1 177

1 471

618

11 383

21 799

758

22 557

24 585

Armadale

10 055

2 980

1 339

613

7 018

22 005

1 308

23 313

25 575

Avon

2 847

1 905

2 965

2 202

657

1 314

11 890

522

12 412

13 408

Ballajura

11 549

9 452

1 405

993

593

544

24 536

1 300

25 836

27 771

Bassendean

12 012

4 179

1 979

1 752

751

752

21 425

1 480

22 905

25 104

Belmont

11 363

5 360

2 375

1 253

909

673

21 933

1 383

23 316

25 661

Bunbury

4 092

4 260

1 233

749

149

1 296

11 779

548

12 327

13 588

Burrup

4 899

2 453

993

519

8 864

358

9 222

10 793

Carine

5 248

9 746

1 229

1 439

676

3 658

21 996

845

22 841

24 784

Churchlands

3 437

5 583

1 229

411

10 408

21 068

602

21 670

23 788

Cockburn

12 527

5 453

1 722

2 610

912

23 224

1 447

24 671

26 575

Collie

4 162

1 897

2 922

1 811

844

354

11 990

588

12 578

13 424

Cottesloe

4 946

11 034

1 138

3 046

1 104

21 268

600

21 868

24 621

Darling Range

7 231

8 274

2 248

1 874

926

2 381

22 934

978

23 912

25 798

Dawesville

5 402

6 140

1 890

929

512

14 873

531

15 404

17 117

Eyre

3 143

1 922

1 310

1 036

7 411

347

7 758

9 415

Fremantle

9 518

4 941

979

3 434

694

585

20 151

1 558

21 709

24 341

Geraldton

2 705

2 469

935

2 121

1 867

10 097

489

10 586

11 805

Girrawheen

10 598

4 521

1 637

1 204

636

981

19 577

1 304

20 881

23 169

Greenough

2 589

4 439

1 279

3 455

783

12 545

405

12 950

14 340

Hillarys

8 359

9 570

1 660

2 287

764

1 233

23 873

1 123

24 996

27 334

Innaloo

8 832

7 622

1 116

1 756

794

1 218

21 338

1 179

22 517

25 196

Joondalup

9 742

10 124

1 788

2 345

810

1 072

25 881

1 124

27 005

29 297

Kalgoorlie

4 168

4 160

1 122

401

862

10 713

455

11 168

12 987

Kimberley

4 035

1 545

1 527

1 003

424

1 020

9 554

466

10 020

13 445

Kingsley

7 788

9 585

1 565

1 426

865

1 654

22 883

1 018

23 901

25 569

Mandurah

5 077

4 394

1 586

626

901

12 584

413

12 997

14 071

Maylands

10 549

5 818

1 209

1 755

813

700

20 844

1 271

22 115

24 736

Merredin

1 761

6 339

2 283

341

511

11 235

443

11 678

12 666

Midland

10 874

5 689

2 539

1 916

793

944

22 755

1 348

24 103

26 512

Mitchell

4 537

7 475

1 742

897

185

491

15 327

529

15 856

17 283

Moore

2 021

4 108

1 811

2 749

561

11 250

431

11 681

12 527

Murdoch

6 943

10 430

2 308

1 442

21 123

790

21 913

23 967

Murray-Wellington

3 826

4 690

2 656

1 586

12 758

658

13 416

14 463

Nedlands

3 856

9 948

546

1 353

656

3 869

20 228

530

20 758

23 575

Ningaloo

2 666

3 059

1 263

396

103

517

8 004

289

8 293

10 100

Nollamara

11 243

5 259

1 506

1 140

581

322

20 051

1 577

21 628

23 891

Peel

14 509

5 962

3 480

2 021

747

760

27 479

1 049

28 528

31 357

Perth

8 423

5 918

766

2 031

819

504

18 461

1 163

19 624

22 492

Pilbara

1 782

821

416

3 626

6 645

307

6 952

10 162

Riverton

8 136

8 057

1 189

1 669

782

1 449

21 282

803

22 085

24 041

Rockingham

11 136

5 180

2 486

1 219

579

140

20 740

1 025

21 765

23 769

Roe

1 931

2 524

4 430

2 553

458

11 896

387

12 283

13 448

Roleystone

8 759

7 385

2 654

2 109

772

1 101

22 780

1 182

23 962

26 144

South Perth

4 943

6 251

1 326

676

7 502

20 698

599

21 297

23 877

Southern River

11 153

9 682

2 562

1 413

678

2 002

27 490

1 457

28 947

31 498

Stirling

2 244

4 572

2 182

1 542

1 705

12 245

407

12 652

13 776

Swan Hills

8 319

9 032

2 798

3 048

967

1 422

25 586

1 104

26 690

28 806

Thornlie

10 268

5 730

2 305

1 062

636

1 317

21 318

1 231

22 549

24 674

Vasse

3 619

4 481

3 481

1 856

1 206

431

15 074

535

15 609

16 900

Victoria Park

10 833

5 612

1 417

1 685

825

487

20 859

1 078

21 937

24 800

Wagin

1 758

2 951

3 189

2 237

420

846

11 401

472

11 873

12 674

Wanneroo

14 126

11 352

3 221

1 880

974

1 408

32 961

1 942

34 903

37 720

Warren-Blackwood

2 338

6 732

1 620

1 853

1 580

14 123

443

14 566

15 742

Willagee

10 878

5 535

1 517

2 064

662

20 656

1 046

21 702

23 843

Yokine

8 593

7 927

810

1 759

756

884

20 729

1 050

21 779

24 363

Total

382 308

319 927

33 450

98 321

74 641

27 102

90 971

1 026 720

48 836

1 075 556

1 187 629

Regions:

Metropolitan

295 868

237 826

54 486

59 152

25 572

68 371

741 275

37 206

778 481

855 390

Non-Metropolitan

86 440

82 101

33 450

43 835

15 489

1 530

22 600

285 445

11 630

297 075

332 239

 

Table 2b Legislative Assembly: Party Summary
Per cent

District

First Preference Votes

Formal Votes

Informal Votes

Turnout

ALP

LP

NP

PHON

GRN

AD

OTH

Albany

31.6

33.0

16.2

8.5

10.7

95.7

4.3

91.8

Alfred Cove

32.8

5.4

6.7

2.8

52.2

96.6

3.4

91.8

Armadale

45.7

13.5

6.1

2.8

31.9

94.4

5.6

91.2

Avon

23.9

16.0

24.9

18.5

5.5

11.1

95.8

4.2

92.6

Ballajura

47.1

38.5

5.7

4.0

2.4

2.2

95.0

5.0

93.0

Bassendean

56.1

19.5

9.2

8.2

3.5

3.5

93.5

6.5

91.2

Belmont

51.8

24.4

10.8

5.7

4.1

3.1

94.1

5.9

90.9

Bunbury

34.7

36.2

10.5

6.4

1.3

11.0

95.6

4.4

90.7

Burrup

55.3

27.7

11.2

5.9

96.1

3.9

85.4

Carine

23.9

44.3

5.6

6.5

3.1

16.6

96.3

3.7

92.2

Churchlands

16.3

26.5

5.8

2.0

49.4

97.2

2.8

91.1

Cockburn

53.9

23.5

7.4

11.2

3.9

94.1

5.9

92.8

Collie

34.7

15.8

24.4

15.1

7.0

3.0

95.3

4.7

93.7

Cottesloe

23.3

51.9

5.4

14.3

5.2

97.3

2.7

88.8

Darling Range

31.5

36.1

9.8

8.2

4.0

10.4

95.9

4.1

92.7

Dawesville

36.3

41.3

12.7

6.2

3.4

96.6

3.4

90.0

Eyre

42.4

25.9

17.7

14.0

95.5

4.5

82.4

Fremantle

47.2

24.5

4.9

17.0

3.4

2.9

92.8

7.2

89.2

Geraldton

26.8

24.5

9.3

21.0

18.5

95.4

4.6

89.7

Girrawheen

54.1

23.1

8.4

6.2

3.2

5.0

93.8

6.2

90.1

Greenough

20.6

35.4

10.2

27.5

6.2

96.9

3.1

90.3

Hillarys

35.0

40.1

7.0

9.6

3.2

5.2

95.5

4.5

91.4

Innaloo

41.4

35.7

5.2

8.2

3.7

5.7

94.8

5.2

89.4

Joondalup

37.6

39.1

6.9

9.1

3.1

4.1

95.8

4.2

92.2

Kalgoorlie

38.9

38.8

10.5

3.7

8.0

95.9

4.1

86.0

Kimberley

42.2

16.2

16.0

10.5

4.4

10.7

95.3

4.7

74.5

Kingsley

34.0

41.9

6.8

6.2

3.8

7.2

95.7

4.3

93.5

Mandurah

40.3

34.9

12.6

5.0

7.2

96.8

3.2

92.4

Maylands

50.6

27.9

5.8

8.4

3.9

3.4

94.3

5.7

89.4

Merredin

15.7

56.4

20.3

3.0

4.5

96.2

3.8

92.2

Midland

47.8

25.0

11.2

8.4

3.5

4.1

94.4

5.6

90.9

Mitchell

29.6

48.8

11.4

5.9

1.2

3.2

96.7

3.3

91.7

Moore

18.0

36.5

16.1

24.4

5.0

96.3

3.7

93.2

Murdoch

32.9

49.4

10.9

6.8

96.4

3.6

91.4

Murray-Wellington

30.0

36.8

20.8

12.4

95.1

4.9

92.8

Nedlands

19.1

49.2

2.7

6.7

3.2

19.1

97.4

2.6

88.1

Ningaloo

33.3

38.2

15.8

4.9

1.3

6.5

96.5

3.5

82.1

Nollamara

56.1

26.2

7.5

5.7

2.9

1.6

92.7

7.3

90.5

Peel

52.8

21.7

12.7

7.4

2.7

2.8

96.3

3.7

91.0

Perth

45.6

32.1

4.1

11.0

4.4

2.7

94.1

5.9

87.2

Pilbara

26.8

12.4

6.3

54.6

95.6

4.4

68.4

Riverton

38.2

37.9

5.6

7.8

3.7

6.8

96.4

3.6

91.9

Rockingham

53.7

25.0

12.0

5.9

2.8

0.7

95.3

4.7

91.6

Roe

16.2

21.2

37.2

21.5

3.9

96.8

3.2

91.3

Roleystone

38.5

32.4

11.7

9.3

3.4

4.8

95.1

4.9

91.7

South Perth

23.9

30.2

6.4

3.3

36.2

97.2

2.8

89.2

Southern River

40.6

35.2

9.3

5.1

2.5

7.3

95.0

5.0

91.9

Stirling

18.3

37.3

17.8

12.6

13.9

96.8

3.2

91.8

Swan Hills

32.5

35.3

10.9

11.9

3.8

5.6

95.9

4.1

92.7

Thornlie

48.2

26.9

10.8

5.0

3.0

6.2

94.5

5.5

91.4

Vasse

24.0

29.7

23.1

12.3

8.0

2.9

96.6

3.4

92.4

Victoria Park

51.9

26.9

6.8

8.1

4.0

2.3

95.1

4.9

88.5

Wagin

15.4

25.9

28.0

19.6

3.7

7.4

96.0

4.0

93.7

Wanneroo

42.9

34.4

9.8

5.7

3.0

4.3

94.4

5.6

92.5

Warren-Blackwood

16.6

47.7

11.5

13.1

11.2

97.0

3.0

92.5

Willagee

52.7

26.8

7.3

10.0

3.2

95.2

4.8

91.0

Yokine

41.5

38.2

3.9

8.5

3.6

4.3

95.2

4.8

89.4

Total

37.2

31.2

3.3

9.6

7.3

2.6

8.9

95.5

4.5

90.6

Regions:

Metropolitan

39.9

32.1

7.4

8.0

3.4

9.2

95.2

4.8

91.0

Non-Metropolitan

30.3

28.8

11.7

15.4

5.4

0.5

7.9

96.1

3.9

89.4

 

Table 3 Legislative Assembly District Details

Albany

 

 

 

Enrolled 14 262

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

Swing

 

 

 

 

 

First Preferences

 

 

 

 

Evers

IND

1 001

8.0

+8.0

Watson

ALP

3 960

31.6

-2.2

Davis

GRN

1 060

8.5

+8.5

Watson

IND

334

2.7

+2.7

Simpson

PHON