Current Issues Brief 12 2000-01

House of Representatives By-elections 1949-2001

Gerard Newman
Statistics Group
3 April 2001

Contents

Major Issues
Introduction
Schedule of House Of Representatives By-elections, 1949-2001
Reasons for Vacancies
Results and Swings
Seats Lost at By-elections 1949-2001
Timing
Notes on Selected By-elections
Appendix 1 By-election Timing: By-elections 1949-2001
Appendix 2 Electoral Division Details

Party Abbreviations and Symbols

Major Issues

During the period 1949 to the end of March 2001 there have been 80 by-elections for the House of Representatives. Assuming that there are no more by-elections during the life of the 39^th Parliament, this will mean an average of four by-elections for each of the twenty parliaments in the period.

Of the 80 by-elections held during the period, 28 have occurred because of the death of the member, 51 as the result of the resignation of the member and one because the result in the Electoral Division at the previous general election was voided by a Court of Disputed Returns (Lindsay 1996).

On only eleven occasions has the sitting party lost the seat at a by-election. The Labor Party has won five seats from the Coalition (Flinders 1952, Dawson 1966, Corio 1967, Lowe 1982, and Ryan 2001), but has lost three seats to the Liberal Party (Bass 1975, Adelaide 1988, and Canberra 1995) and lost one seat to an Independent (Wills 1992). The Liberal Party has won one seat from their Coalition partners (Groom 1988) while the National Party has won one seat from the Liberal Party (Calare 1960).

Most (60.8%) by-elections caused by the resignation of the sitting member have occurred in safe seats. Only eight by-elections have occurred in marginal seats.

The average two party preferred swing against the government in all by-elections during the period was 4.0%, while the average swing in government held seats was 5.0%. The largest two party swing against the government occurred in Canberra in 1995 (16.1%) while the largest swing to the government occurred in McPherson in 1981 (16.2%). There have been swings to the government of the day in only twelve by-elections during the period.

An increasing tendency over the period has been for the government of the day not to contest by-elections in seats held by the opposition. Since 1989, governments have not contested any by-elections in opposition held seats. In only one by-election during the whole period (Bradfield 1952) has the opposition not contested a government held seat.

Introduction

By-elections are held to fill vacancies in the House of Representatives resulting from the death, resignation, absence without leave, expulsion, disqualification or ineligibility of a Member. The Constitution (section 33) confers on the Speaker of the House of Representatives the power to issue a writ for the election of a new Member. There is no prescribed time period for the issuing of writs following a vacancy and it is possible to avoid a by-election if a general election is pending (e.g. a vacancy in the Division of Wills occurred on 25 November 1992 following a Court of Disputed Returns but no by-election was held pending the March 1993 general election).

This paper provides details of each by-election for the House of Representatives from the 1949 election to March 2001. All swing figures used in the paper are calculated on two party preferred votes except where otherwise indicated.

Schedule of House Of Representatives By-elections, 1949-2001

Note: Seats changing hands at the by-election are highlighted.

Reasons for Vacancies

By-elections for the House of Representatives held during the period 1949 to 2001 have occurred overwhelmingly because of the death or resignation of the member, only one by-election was caused by the general election being voided by a Court of Disputed Returns (Lindsay 1996). Of the 80 by-elections, 28 have occurred because of the death of the member and 51 as a result of resignation. Vacancy because of the death of the member is by far the most frequent reason for by-elections held in the earlier part of the period while resignation is the most frequent reason in the later part. A significant number of members (21) have resigned to take up government appointments of one kind or another with the diplomatic service being the most popular.

Reasons for By-elections, 1949-2001

 

	Death	Resignation	Other	Total
1949-59	13	3	0	16
1960-69	9	13	0	22
1970-79	4	4	0	8
1980-89	1	17	0	18
1990-99	0	13	1	14
2000-	1	1	0	2
Total	28	51	1	80

Results and Swings

The most striking feature of by-elections held during the period is the small number of times that the sitting party has lost the seat at the by-election. On only eleven occasions has the sitting party lost the seat at the by-election and on two of these occasions a coalition seat was won by the coalition partner. The government of the day has never won a seat from the opposition in a by-election during the period.

It would appear that the electorate is more understanding in the case of by-elections caused by the death of the sitting member than in those caused by resignation. The sitting party has lost the seat in by-elections caused by the death of the member on only two occasions (Flinders 1952 and Dawson 1966), compared to nine occasions when the by-election was caused by the resignation of the sitting member.

Seats Lost at By-elections 1949-2001

 

Division	Government	Sitting party	Winning party
Flinders (Vic) 1952	LP/CP	LP	ALP
Calare (NSW) 1960	LP/CP	LP	CP
Dawson (Qld) 1966	LP/CP	CP	ALP
Corio (Vic) 1967	LP/CP	LP	ALP
Bass (Tas) 1975	ALP	ALP	LP
Lowe (NSW) 1982	LP/NP	LP	ALP
Adelaide (SA) 1988	ALP	ALP	LP
Groom (Qld) 1988	ALP	NP	LP
Wills (Vic) 1992	ALP	ALP	Ind
Canberra (ACT) 1995	ALP	ALP	LP
Ryan (Qld) 2001	LP/NP	LP	ALP

In terms of winning seats from other parties, no political party can claim a great deal of success, as gains and losses are almost equal. The Australian Labor Party has won five seats from the Coalition parties, but has lost three seats to the Liberal Party and one seat to an Independent. The Liberal Party has won three seats, one seat being won from its coalition partner, while it has lost four seats, three to the ALP and one to the National Party. The National Party has fared the worst, winning only one seat (from the Liberal Party) and losing two seats.

It is worth noting that on three occasions where a seat has changed hands at a by-election (Flinders 1952, Adelaide 1988 and Canberra 1995), the party that won the seat at the by-election lost the seat at the subsequent general election.

The fact that so few seats have changed hands in by-elections is probably due more to the propensity for by-elections to occur in safe seats rather than any other factor. Political parties and individual members are only too well aware of the possible political consequences of losing a seat at a by-election and thus try to ensure that by-elections occur only in relatively safe seats. Of the 51 by-elections resulting from the resignation of the member, only eight have been in marginal seats (i.e. seats requiring a swing of less than 6.0% to change hands). By far the largest number of by-elections, 31, have occurred in safe seats (i.e. seats requiring a swing of over 10% to change hands).

By-elections Caused by Resignation by Safeness of Seat

Apart from a party's success or defeat in a by-election the most important aspect of a by-election is the two party preferred swing that takes place. Conventional wisdom holds that there is usually a swing against the government of the day at a by-election. The success or otherwise of a government, opposition, or party leader at the by-election is often measured by the size of the swing in comparison with the average swing recorded in past by-elections. However, by-elections occur in varied and disparate Electoral Divisions, with different numbers and mixes of candidates, and with a variety of local, state and national issues involved. It could be argued that given the variety of factors involved there is no average by-election swing. By-elections are held in such different circumstances that none can be regarded as normal, and it is generally agreed that any swing can be explained by the special factors pertaining to each by-election.

In calculating the swing at a by-election the most commonly used method is to compare the two-party preferred vote at the by-election with the two-party preferred vote at the preceding general election in the Division. However, two-party preferred vote swings are not a perfect measure as they can be affected by the number of candidates, position on the ballot paper, order of exclusion of candidates and the number of different parties contesting the Division.

Average two-party preferred vote swings for by-elections held between 1949 and the end of March 2001 are given below. Two-party preferred vote swings can be calculated for 60 of the 80 by-elections held during the period. Swings cannot be calculated where one of the major parties (i.e. ALP or LP/NP Coalition) did not stand a candidate at the by-election or the preceding general election, or where the Division was uncontested at the by-election or the preceding general election.

Average Two Party Preferred Swings Against Government: By-elections 1949-2001
Per cent

	Average swing	By-elections (a)
All By-elections	-4.0	60
Government held Seats	-5.0	42
LP/NP Governments	-3.4	42
ALP Governments	-5.4	18
By-elections caused by death	-2.5	19
By-elections caused by resignation	-4.9	40

(a) By-elections where a two-party preferred swing can be calculated.

The average swing against the government of the day in all by-elections held during the period 1949 to 2001 is 4.0%. The swing against ALP Governments, 5.4%, is somewhat higher than the swing against LP/NP Coalition Governments, 3.4%, while the swing against the government in seats held by the government was 5.0%. The average swing in by-elections caused by the death of the sitting member is approximately half the swing in by-elections caused by the resignation of the member.

Swings at by-elections during the period have varied from a 16.1% swing against the government (Canberra 1995) to a swing of 16.2% to the government (McPherson 1981). The largest swing against an ALP Government was Canberra, while the largest swing against a LP/NP Coalition Government was Werriwa in 1952 with a 12.4% swing. Swings to the government of the day are a rare event in by-elections, with only ten being recorded during the period. The largest swing to an ALP Government was in Wills in 1992 with a 5.9% swing (although the ALP lost the seat to an independent candidate, P Cleary) while the largest swing to a LP/NP Coalition Government was in McPherson in 1981 with a 16.2% swing. It should be noted that in both Wills and McPherson the swing is somewhat distorted by the mix of candidates standing and the distribution of preferences.

By-election Swings 1949-2001

 

ALP Government			LP/NP Government
Division	Swing		Division	Swing
Parramatta 1973	-6.6		Balaclava 1951	-3.4
Bass 1975	-14.6		Macquarie 1951	+0.1
Wannon 1983	-1.5		Lyne 1952	-8.8
Bruce 1983	-3.8		Flinders 1952	-11.0
Moreton 1983	-1.2		Werriwa 1952	-12.4
Corangamite 1984	-1.3		Bradfield 1952	n.a.
Hughes 1984	-5.0		Dalley 1953	n.a.
Richmond 1984	+0.5		Lang 1953	-2.5
Scullin 1986	-4.4		Corangamite 1953	-6.5
Adelaide 1988	-8.4		Gwydir 1953	-0.4
Port Adelaide 1988	-11.1		Cook 1955	n.a.
Groom 1988	-5.2		Cunningham 1956	n.a.
Oxley 1988	-11.8		Barker 1956	-9.9
Gwyder 1989	n.a.		Wentworth 1956	n.a.
Menzies 1991	n.a.		Richmond 1957	n.a.
Wills 1992	+5.9		Parramatta 1958	-6.4
Werriwa 1994	-6.3		Hunter 1960	n.a.
Fremantle 1994	+1.0		La Trobe 1960	-7.5
Bonython 1994	-7.8		Balaclava 1960	-4.6
Mackellar 1994	n.a.		Bendigo 1960	+0.1
Warringah 1994	n.a.		Calare 1960	+1.0
Kooyong 1994	n.a.		Higinbotham 1960	-9.2
Canberra 1995	-16.1		Batman 1962	n.a.
Wentworth 1995	n.a.		Grey 1963	+4.9
			East Sydney 1963	n.a.
			Denison 1964	-1.9
			Angas 1964	-2.1
			Parramatta 1964	-3.0
			Robertson 1964	-1.4
			Riverina 1965	-0.9
			Dawson 1966	-11.9
			Kooyong 1966	-3.8
			Corio 1967	-11.1
			Capricornia 1967	+1.5
			Higgins 1968	-0.3
			Curtin 1969	-7.1
			Bendigo 1969	+2.1
			Gwydir 1969	-7.7
			Australian Capital Territory 1970	+13.8
			Chisholm 1970	-2.8
			Murray 1971	-0.4
			Cunningham 1977	-0.3
			Werriwa 1978	-11.3
			Grayndler 1979	-6.9
			McPherson 1981	+16.2
			Boothby 1981	-1.2
			Curtin 1981	-7.5
			Wentworth 1981	-6.2
			Lowe 1982	-8.5
			Flinders 1982	-3.3
			Blaxland 1996	n.a.
			Lindsay 1996	+5.0
			Fraser 1997	n.a.
			Holt 1999	n.a.
			Isaacs 2000	n.a.
			Ryan 2001	-9.7

n.a. not applicable

There is no legislation that prescribes the time period for a by-election to be held following the seat becoming vacant. Once the election writs have been issued, however, various statutory requirements limit the election period from a minimum of 33 days to a maximum of 58 days. Thus any significant discretion in the calling of a by-election occurs in the period after the seat becomes vacant and before the issuing of writs by the Speaker of the House of Representatives.

During the period 1949 to 2001 the average number of elapsed days between the seat becoming vacant and the by-election date was 51 days. The maximum number of days was for Moreton 1983, 82 days, and the minimum was for Bass 1975, 26 days.

Appendix 1 provides details of the timing of all by-elections held between 1949 and March 2001. It also shows the number of days elapsed between the seat becoming vacant and the by-election date as well as the number of days elapsed since the previous general election and the by-election and between the by-election and the next general election.

Macquarie 1950-By-election held following the death of the former Prime Minister J B Chifley. The ALP retained the seat despite a small (0.4%) swing to the LP/CP Coalition Government.

Lyne 1952-The Country Party, which stood two candidates in this by-election, retained the seat (P E Lucock successful candidate) despite a large swing to the ALP (8.8%).

Flinders 1952-The Liberal Party lost the seat to the ALP as the result of a large (11.0%) swing against the LP/CP Coalition Government. The successful candidate (K Ewert) lost the seat at the next general election.

Werriwa 1952-The ALP achieved its largest swing in the period against the LP/CP Coalition Government (12.4%) at this by-election. The successful ALP candidate was future Prime Minister E G Whitlam.

Bradfield 1952-No ALP candidate contested this safe Liberal seat, previously held by former Prime Minister and longest serving member of the House of Representatives, W M Hughes.

Gwydir 1953-Two Country Party candidates contested this by-election along with candidates from the ALP and Liberal Party. Seat was won by the Country Party's A I Allan.

Cook 1955-The Liberal Party did not contest this safe ALP seat, retained for the ALP by J F Cope. Typical of inner-city electorates there was a low voter turnout (76.0%) at this by-election.

Cunningham 1956-The ALP candidate, V D Kearner, was elected unopposed. This was the only time a by-election was uncontested during the period.

Richmond 1957-Four Country Party candidates contested this by-election, including the eventual winner J D Anthony, the son of the former member, H L Anthony.

Hunter 1960-The Liberal Party did not stand a candidate for this safe ALP seat, formerly held by H V Evatt.

Calare 1960-This by-election was the only time the Country Party (or its successor the National Party) has won a seat from another party at a by-election during the period. The Country Party candidate, J A England, won the seat formerly held by the Liberal Party's J B Howse.

Batman 1962-The successful ALP candidate, S J Benson, was subsequently expelled from the ALP and was elected as an independent at the 1966 general election.

East Sydney 1963-The second lowest voter turnout (71.9%) of the period was recorded at this by-election. The ALP retained the seat. The Liberal Party did not stand a candidate.

Dawson 1966-Prominent ALP candidate, R A Patterson, achieved the second largest swing (11.9%) against the LP/CP Coalition Government to win the seat from the Country Party.

Kooyong 1966-The Liberal Party candidate, A S Peacock, retained this safe Liberal seat in the by-election held following the resignation of Prime Minister R G Menzies.

Corio 1967-A large swing against the LP/CP Coalition Government (11.1%) resulted in the ALP candidate, G G D Scholes, winning the seat from the Liberal Party, following the retirement of popular sporting personality, H Opperman.

Higgins 1968-By-election was held following the presumed death of Prime Minister H E Holt. Retained for the Liberal Party by new Prime Minister (and ex-Senator) J G Gorton.

Australian Capital Territory 1970-Despite a large swing the ALP retained this seat formerly held by popular member, J R Fraser. The Australia Party candidate, A J Fitzgerald, received 17.5% of the first preference votes.

Chisholm 1970-The Liberal Party candidate, A A Staley, retained this seat. The ALP candidate was F X Costigan, later Royal Commissioner investigating the activities of the Federated Ship Painters' and Dockers' Union, and tax evasion matters.

Bass 1975-The second largest swing ever recorded against any government (14.6%) occurred at this by-election held following the appointment of former Member, L H Barnard, to be Ambassador to Norway, Finland and Sweden. The Liberal Party candidate, K E Newman, won the seat from the ALP.

Werriwa 1978-The ALP candidate, J C Kerin, achieved a large swing (11.3%) against the LP/NP Coalition Government in this by-election, held following the resignation of former Prime Minister, E G Whitlam.

McPherson 1981-The Liberal Party candidate, P N D White, achieved a swing to the LP/NP Coalition Government of 16.2%, the largest swing to any government during the period. The National Party candidate (future Senator G Sheil) outpolled the ALP candidate.

Wentworth 1981-The Liberal Party candidate, W P Coleman, comfortably retained the seat despite a 6.2% swing to the ALP candidate, R E Tickner. The voter turnout (69.5%) was the lowest recorded during the period.

Lowe 1982-This marginal Liberal Party seat became vacant following the resignation of former Prime Minister W McMahon. The ALP candidate, M J Maher, won the seat from the Liberal Party with a 8.5% swing.

Flinders 1982-The Liberal Party retained this marginal seat with only a 3.3% swing against the LP/NP Coalition Government. However, new member, P K Reith, was unable to take up his seat in the House of Representatives as the Parliament was dissolved before he could be sworn in and he was defeated at the subsequent general election. Mr Reith was re-elected in 1984.

Moreton 19833/4The Liberal Party retained this marginal Liberal seat with a small swing in its favour. The successful candidate, D Cameron, lost the neighbouring seat of Fadden at the previous general election. The elapsed time between the resignation of the sitting member and the date of the by-election, 82 days, was the longest recorded during the period.

Scullin 1986-The ALP retained this seat with H A Jenkins succeeding his father H A Jenkins.

Adelaide 1988-The ALP lost this seat with a swing of 8.4% against the ALP Government. The successful Liberal Party candidate, M P Pratt, lost the seat at the next general election.

Port Adelaide 1988-An 11.1% swing against the ALP Government was insufficient for the Liberal Party to win the seat. The ALP's R W Sawford was the winning candidate.

Groom 1988-The Liberal Party candidate, W L Taylor, won the seat previously held by the National Party.

Oxley 1988-The prospective appointment of W G Hayden as Governor-General caused the vacancy in this safe ALP seat. The ALP candidate, L J Scott, was successful despite an 11.8% swing against the ALP Government.

Gwydir 1989-Neither the ALP nor the Liberal Party contested this safe National Party seat, retained by J D Anderson.

Wills 1992-A record 22 candidates contested this ALP seat vacated by the former Prime Minister, RJL Hawke. Prominent local identity, P R Cleary, won the seat to become the first independent candidate to win a by-election in the period. The two-party preferred count of preferences resulted in a swing to the ALP Government of 5.9%, the first swing to a government since Richmond in 1984. The by-election result was voided by a Court of Disputed Returns. A subsequent by-election was not held because of the impending general election.

Werriwa 1994-The ALP retained this safe seat despite a swing against the ALP Government of 6.3%. The successful candidate was M Latham.

Fremantle 1994-Former Western Australian Premier, C Lawrence, retained this seat for the ALP with a swing of 1.0% to the government.

Bonython 1994-Despite a swing of 7.8% against the ALP, M Evans retained this seat for the government.

Mackellar 1994-Liberal candidate, ex-Senator B Bishop, easily retained this safe Liberal Party seat. Prominent identity, B Ellis, received 23.1% of the first preference vote in the absence of a Labor Party candidate. The by-election was held after by-elections in Fremantle and Bonython despite Mackellar becoming vacant before both Fremantle and Bonython.

Kooyong 1994-Prominent member of the Liberal Party organisation, P Georgiou, retained this seat for the LP following the retirement of former Party Leader, A Peacock. The ALP did not stand a candidate in this safe Liberal seat.

Canberra 1995-After initially considering not to contest this fairly safe ALP seat the LP ultimately decided to enter the race and promptly won the seat from the government with a record swing of 16.1%. The successful candidate, B Smyth, lost the seat at the following general election.

Wentworth 1995-Despite being classified as a marginal LP seat the ALP did not contest this by-election. The winning candidate was A Thomson for the LP

Blaxland 1996-Former Labor Prime Minister, P J Keating, retired following the 1996 election loss and was replaced by M Hatton for the ALP. The LP did not contest this safe Labor seat.

Lindsay 1996-The 1996 general election was voided by a Court of Disputed Returns. At the by-election the successful Liberal candidate at the general election, J Kelly, retained the seat with a swing of 5.0% to the government.

Isaacs 2000-The first by-election since McPherson in 1981 caused by the death of the sitting member. The LP did not contest this fairly safe Labor seat, retained for the ALP by A Corcoran.

Ryan 2001-The ALP candidate, L Short, won this fairly safe Liberal seat following the retirement of J Moore. The swing of 9.7% against the government was just sufficient for the ALP to win the seat.