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Current Issues Brief 25 1996-97

APEC after Subic Bay-the Road to Free Trade
('to boldly go where none have gone before...')

Tas Luttrell
Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Group

Contents

Glossary

Major Issues Summary

Introduction

APEC's Importance to Australia

The Subic Bay Meeting

    The Background to Subic Bay

    The Bogor Declaration

    The Osaka Meeting 1995

    Manila Action Plan for APEC (MAPA)

Objectives and Outcomes of the Subic Bay Meeting 1996

    The Individual Action Plans (IAPs)

    Australia's IAP

    Features of Other IAPs

    Membership of APEC

    Other Outcomes of the Subic Bay Meeting

Australia's Potential Benefits from APEC

Conclusion

Appendix A: Eminent Persons Group and APEC Business Advisory Council Reports

Appendix B: Summary of Australia's Individual Action Plan

Appendix C: Features of Other Individual Action Plans

Glossary

APEC
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation

ABAC
APEC Business Advisory Council

EPG
Eminent Persons Group

GATS
General Agreement on Trade in Services

GATT
General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (replaced by the World Trade Organization)

GNP
Gross National Product

HRD
Human Resource Development

IAPs
Individual Action Plans

IPR
Intellectual Property Rights

MAPA
Manila Action Plan for APEC

MFN
Most Favoured Nation

MRAs
Mutual Recognition Arrangements

OAA
Osaka Action Agenda

PMV
Passenger Motor Vehicles

SME
Small and Medium sized Enterprises

TCF
Textiles, Clothing and Footwear

UN/EDIFACT
United Nations/Electronic Data Interchange For Administration of Commerce and Transport

UR
Uruguay Round (the negotiations which led to the establishment of the World Trade Organization)

WTO
World Trade Organization

Major Issues Summary

The two major APEC meetings in 1996, the Ministerial meeting (Manila, 22-23 November) and the Economic Leaders' meeting (Subic Bay, 25 November) held more than the usual importance. There was a sense that the preliminaries were over and the main event was about to begin. It was also the last opportunity for APEC leaders to demonstrate a united front prior to the first WTO Ministerial Meeting in Singapore.

Previous meetings of the APEC members had agreed upon a goal of free trade and investment by 2010 (for developed countries) or 2020 (for developing countries). The strategies planned were designed to reinforce the natural advantages of the APEC membership-geographic proximity, economic complementarity and sustained high rates of growth. In 1996 the task was to make the first practical steps toward the implementation of the goal of free trade and investment. It was a continuation of a liberalisation process which has already reduced the simple average tariff of members from 12 per cent to 9 per cent.

Reforming restrictive policies among APEC members will promote and facilitate the international movement of goods, services and capital. It has been estimated that this process could produce for Australia an increase of $A40 billion in real income and could generate around 500 000 new jobs. The changes necessary for Australia to conform to the Bogor Declaration are comparatively small when compared to those required of other APEC members.

The main agenda item for the 1996 meetings was the consideration of Individual Action Plans tabled by each member. These plans set out proposals for liberalisation of each member's trade and investment regimes to be undertaken in the short to medium term and broad planning measures for the longer term. Although based mainly on an accelerated implementation of Uruguay Round commitments, the plans also included new initiatives which can be directly attributed to the Bogor Declaration. Also considered were collective action plans and proposed joint activities on economic and technical cooperation. The meeting continued the close attention to the needs of the business sector which is a unique feature of APEC.

The agenda included reconsideration of the sensitive question of the membership of APEC at the end of a three year moratorium. This issue was prominent in the discussions but the decision adopted effectively shelved the matter for another three years.

APEC works on the basis of unilateral concessions. In contrast GATT (now the WTO) is based on negotiated reciprocal benefits. In addition, APEC concessions are not legally binding whereas the GATT/WTO system is based on legal agreements. Importantly, APEC leaders see their program as a supplement to the GATT/WTO arrangements, not a substitute for them.

The APEC process offers potential benefits for Australia but capitalising on those opportunities will involve a concerted effort to reconstruct and realign the economy over several decades. That process is likely to be a painful one for some sectors of the economy and for the workforce in some areas.

The problem is that the industries most affected are large employers of labour and Australia's unemployment level is already high. The paper argues that those sectors and areas must be assisted through the adjustment process by policies which encourage the necessary investment, entrepreneurship and smooth retraining and repositioning of the workforce.

APEC Membership

APEC Membership Map

Source: Resources in APEC Member Economies, APEC Education Network

Introduction

APEC was established in 1989 as a regional(1) forum for economic cooperation. The original membership of 12 countries has now grown to 18 and the members account for more than half of the world's total economic output (56 per cent of world GNP in 1994). This fact alone underlines the significance of the attempts by the group to achieve a regime of free trade and investment between members.

This paper describes the importance of APEC for Australia in economic terms and explains the development of the Action Agenda for the organisation, which resulted from the previous meeting in Osaka in 1995.

The paper also examines the main aspects of Australia's Action Plan and relates its proposals to commitments already undertaken in the World Trade Organization. Also included are brief summaries of proposals in the IAPs of other members.

Membership of APEC

Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, Singapore, Chinese Taipei (Taiwan), Thailand and the United States.

APEC's Importance to Australia

In trade terms APEC has become the most important region of the world for Australia. In 1995-96 trade with APEC members made up 71 per cent of total Australian merchandise trade (66 per cent ten years ago). Over the last ten years trade with the region has grown at 9.3 per cent a year, while growth in trade with the rest of the world averaged 8.3 per cent a year. In 1995-96 APEC took 76 per cent of Australia's merchandise exports, worth $57 668 million, and supplied 67 per cent of imports, worth $52 209 million.

Within this already satisfying trend of sustained growth, a further encouraging trend was the markedly faster growth of exports by comparison with imports. In 1995-96 merchandise exports to APEC countries increased by 10 per cent, while imports showed an increase of only 3.5 per cent. Exports to APEC countries of elaborately transformed manufactures (valuable for their large Australian value added component) have grown at a very strong trend rate of over 16 per cent in the last five years and reached $13.7 billion in 1995-96.

Despite these promising performances, however, Australia has failed to keep pace with the rates of trade growth in other members of APEC and has a declining share of the region's trade:(2)


Year Australian Imports Australia as a Australian Exports Australia as a from APEC percentage of total to APEC percentage of total $A million Exports for APEC $A million Imports for APEC
1985 22 315 2.2 25 340 2.3 1990 32 058 2.0 39 988 2.3 1995 49 136 1.7 57 656 1.9

APEC has similar importance in Australia's trade in services. Following an increase of about 11 per cent in 1994-95, services trade with the region stood at $24.8 billion. This was 60 per cent of Australia's total trade in services; ten years ago that share was 54 per cent.

There has also been strong growth in two-way investment flows between Australia and the APEC countries, although the trend rate has been slightly lower than for the rest of the world. Nevertheless, in 1994-95, with a total of $177 billion, APEC investment in Australia was 44 per cent of total investment levels and had grown at 11.6 per cent a year since 1985-86. Australian investment in APEC showed a growth rate of 12.0 per cent a year from 1985-86 and in 1994-95 was 51 per cent of total Australian investment abroad.

The Subic Bay Meeting

The meeting at Subic Bay in the Philippines was the most important meeting of the APEC group since the meeting at Bogor in 1994, which defined the APEC vision and set the group on the path toward free trade. This importance stemmed from the change in emphasis from previous meetings. It was the first meeting to leave behind the rhetoric and concern itself with the practicalities of implementing the goals established at Bogor. As US Secretary of State Christopher put it at the pre-Subic Bay Ministerial Meeting in Manila: 'Now we must begin to take specific, concrete steps that will open up our economies and help lift the lives and living standards of our peoples.'(3)

The situation was analogous to an athlete who has trained hard toward goals established perhaps years before. On the first day, in the first race, of the competition which has been the target, the athlete must demonstrate the necessary application and ability or see the labour of years lost. The APEC group had worked hard on building the foundations for the move to free trade and investment but had to show its application and ability at Subic Bay or risk losing the confidence of individual member countries and the world trading community in general. It was the last opportunity before the first WTO Ministerial Meeting in Singapore to ensure that APEC members were able to present a united front and a coherent and comprehensive approach to the work program of the WTO.

The agenda for the Subic Bay meeting was established largely by the outcomes of previous meetings and the advice provided by non-governmental advisory groups. It is therefore essential to examine carefully what had gone before to fully understand the tasks for the Subic Bay meeting and put them properly into the overall context.

The Background to Subic Bay

Quite simply, APEC aims to raise the incomes and standards of living of the populations of its member states. There are two main avenues to achieve this:

  • trade and investment enhancement (reducing the cost of international economic transactions); and

  • development cooperation (which assists developing countries to achieve their economic potential).(4)

The group holds annual Ministerial Meetings to review progress, set the direction for the next year and to review regional and world economic conditions. To date, Ministerial Meetings have been held in Canberra (1989), Singapore (1990), Seoul (1991), Bangkok (1992), Seattle (1993), Jakarta (1994), Osaka (1995). The latest was in Manila in the Philippines in November 1996. In addition, a meeting of APEC Ministers in charge of Trade was held in Jakarta in 1994.

Four meetings have also been held between the Economic Leaders of APEC countries generally the national leaders-in Seattle (1993), Bogor in Indonesia (1994), Osaka (1995) and Subic Bay in the Philippines, 25 November 1996. These meetings have produced major commitments to joint action. In Seattle a Vision Statement issued by the Leaders set out the broad outline of their approach to APEC:

  • to find cooperative solutions to the challenges of a rapidly changing regional and global economy;

  • to support an expanding world economy and an open multilateral trading system;

  • to continue to reduce barriers to trade and investment to enable goods, services and capital to flow freely among APEC economies;

  • to ensure that the people of the region share the benefits of economic growth, improve education and training, link economies through advances in telecommunications and transportation, and use resources sustainably.

The Bogor Declaration

The Seattle Vision Statement was followed at the next meeting by the APEC Declaration of Common Resolve, the so-called 'Bogor Declaration', in which the Leaders set the target of free trade within the region by 2010 for developed economies and 2020 for the developing economies. The aim is to dismantle virtually all barriers to trade and investment between the countries of the region and provide a catalyst for trade, investment, economic growth and integration within the region. The Declaration said:

    ... we agree to adopt the long-term goal of free and open trade and investment in Asia Pacific. This goal will be pursued promptly by further reducing barriers to trade and investment and by promoting the free flow of goods, services and capital among our economies. We will achieve this goal in a GATT-consistent manner and believe our actions will be a powerful impetus for further liberalisation at the multilateral level to which we remain fully committed.

    We further agree to announce our commitment to complete the achievement of our goal of free and open trade and investment in Asia Pacific no later than the year 2020 ... the industrialised economies achieving the goal of free and open trade and investment no later than the year 2010 and the developing economies no later than the year 2020. ...

The Bogor Declaration also stated that the APEC countries would avoid inward looking policies which would weaken the global quest for free trade. The APEC Ministers have made it clear in this and other statements that commitment to the World Trade Organization (WTO) trade liberalisation program is an integral part of the APEC arrangements, which are seen as a supplement to the WTO program not a substitute for it.

Unlike the Uruguay Round Agreements, commitments made as a result of the Bogor Declaration are not in themselves legally binding on the APEC governments, although they do constitute formal statements of intent by the regions leaders.(5) As one article put it:

    APEC operates by consensus, its credibility and success being dependent on the voluntary commitments of its members. There are currently no mandatory obligations imposed on or by members. This is the crucial aspect of APEC's aims and objectives; they remain non-binding.(6)

This highlights a major difference between the WTO efforts to liberalise world trade and similar efforts in APEC-APEC is not backed by any power to impose sanctions. Because the organisation works on a voluntary basis all decisions are unilateral and reflect the commitment of individual governments to the liberalisation process. The decisions are implemented through each country's normal legislative process.

The Osaka Meeting 1995

The task for the meeting in Osaka in 1995 was to put 'flesh and bones' on the skeleton of the Bogor commitments and to provide an Action Agenda for the achievement of the free trade goals. The result was a wide ranging program for the core issues of market access, tariffs, non-tariff measures, quotas and services. However, it also covered a multitude of additional issues such as competition policy, investment, intellectual property rights, deregulation, customs procedures, standards, government procurement, rules of origin, dispute settlement, mobility of business visitors and implementation of Uruguay Round agreements. The result of these consultations was a comprehensive program for cooperation among the APEC economies and strong support for the work program of the World Trade Organization. The first practical test of that program was the content of the Action Plans produced at the Manila Ministerial meeting a year later.

At the end of the Osaka meeting, the framework for future progress was firmly established on the basis of nine principles:

  • comprehensiveness

  • WTO-consistency

  • comparability

  • non-discrimination

  • transparency

  • standstill (each APEC economy will endeavour to refrain from using measures which would increase levels of protection)

  • simultaneous start, continuous process and differentiated timetables

  • flexibility

  • cooperation.

The arrangement has been described as an 'open economic association' which is:

  • open in that its structure and policies do not lead to discrimination against trade and investment with non-members;

  • economic in its primary policy focus on maintaining the high-growth performance of the region; and

  • a voluntary association in that its members do not cede powers of regulation or enforcement to any supranational regional institution.(7)

This form of association maximises the likelihood that benefits will accrue to the more efficient producers and also adds support for the multilateral system operating through the WTO. An agreement which discriminated against non-members would lose, or at least severely restrict, these advantages.(8) APEC now seems to have decided that concessions will be offered to other countries on a 'most favoured nation' basis. Nevertheless, there are several APEC members unhappy at the idea of reducing protection against imports from countries which do not offer similar concessions. The United States and Canada, in particular, have expressed concern over the idea of a 'free ride' being given to such countries.

APEC Governments have made good use of additional sources of advice and information-reports have been received from an Eminent Persons Group (EPG) and from the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC) and these reports have given a wider perspective to the discussion process and have increased business support for the APEC agenda. The close attention given to the needs of the business sector is one of the unique features of the APEC arrangement. Summaries of the EPG report Implementing the APEC Vision and the ABAC report APEC Means Business are shown at Appendix A.

Manila Action Plan for APEC (MAPA)

In preparation for the 1996 meeting at Subic Bay a comprehensive plan was prepared, the Manila Action Plan, setting out the details of each of the individual country action plans, collective action plans and proposed joint activities on economic and technical co-operation. The plans incorporate trade and investment liberalisation measures projected for implementation in the short to medium term and broad planning measures for the longer term (i.e. by 2010 for developed economies and 2020 for developing economies).(9)

The individual plans submitted were based on liberalisation strategies already under way in most member economies, the plans in some cases having their origins twenty years before. These strategies have reinforced the natural advantages of the region-geographic proximity, economic complementarity and sustained high rates of growth-to sustain APEC's rising importance on the world scene.

Most individual plans include the following main features:

  • significant tariff reductions, including:

    • clear targets to reach the Bogor goals

    • time schedules which are faster than the Bogor time frames

    • each of the above going beyond existing multilateral, bound and regional commitments.

  • re-affirmation of the standstill on new measures of protection.

  • a commitment to reduce/eliminate non-tariff trade measures inconsistent with WTO rules.

  • greater transparency and effective liberalisation through:

    • APEC database of tariffs and Customs information on the Internet in 1997; trade flows and non-tariff measures by 1998

    • listing of non-tariff impediments to trade and the products affected by 1998

    • identification and submission to Ministers of priority areas for progressive reduction of tariffs and non-tariff measures by 1999.

In the services sector, APEC members emphasised that they remained committed to their undertakings in the UR General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). In some areas (such as telecommunications and financial services) negotiations are continuing in the WTO and commitments will be implemented when those negotiations are completed. Some IAPs include further commitments in services which go beyond the coverage and depth of commitment already included in GATS.

The APEC members have committed themselves to the development of a competitive services sector to deal with the stresses of structural change and sustained growth. The main objectives are to:

  • strengthen the financial system for the construction of infrastructure

  • upgrade the skills of workers

  • improve the distribution of goods and services and the communications system

  • create business opportunities in a range of services sectors, e.g. professional services, financial services, telecommunications and data processing

  • enlarge opportunities in construction

  • ease the movement of professionals and business people between the APEC economies.

In the field of investment, the APEC members have sought to build on the framework of the 1994 APEC Non-Binding Investment Principles by including plans to progressively reduce/eliminate exceptions and restrictions to those Principles.

In the APEC manner, the collective plans were established by consensus. They are designed to facilitate trade and investment and to assist the business sector by making business conditions easier, cheaper, faster, more predictable and more transparent. Included are measures on simplifying and harmonising Customs procedures, similar proposals covering standards and conformance, plans to help businessmen to move quickly through the area to validate prospects, discuss with prospective partners and conclude deals, with a minimum of 'red tape'. This section of MAPA also covered undertakings on Government Procurement, Rules of Origin, Intellectual Property Rights, Dispute Mediation, Deregulation and Competition Policy.

The joint activities are concerned with economic and technical co-operation, their inclusion making the MAPA a unique combination of activities. Economic and technical co-operation are vital parts of the APEC agenda because of the wide disparities in development levels between APEC members.

An area given special attention was the improvement of infrastructure. To provide the huge sums necessary for the work which needs to be done, the APEC economies are seeking to implement policies to encourage the participation of private capital. Another priority sector is energy, where efforts are being made to increase the efficiency of energy use and reduce the environmental impact of its production. Other areas listed in MAPA for special consideration are: science and technology, small and medium enterprises, trade promotion and sustainable development.

The economic and technical co-operation projects, overall, give emphasis to six major aims:

  • developing human capital;

  • developing stable and efficient capital markets;

  • strengthening economic infrastructure;

  • facilitating technology flows and harnessing new technologies for the future;

  • safeguarding the quality of life through environmentally sound growth; and

  • developing and strengthening the dynamism of small and medium enterprises.

Objectives and Outcomes of the Subic Bay Meeting 1996

For the Subic Bay meeting in 1996, APEC had a number of significant objectives:

  • to have members table Individual Action Plans (IAPs) which set out ambitious but achievable steps toward the implementation of free trade and investment according to the agreed APEC timetable;

  • to advance other key areas of the APEC agenda such as services, economic and technical co-operation, rules of origin, Customs procedures, intellectual property, dispute mediation and Government procurement; and

  • to examine ways in which its member countries might contribute to the success of the WTO Ministerial in Singapore and to the general strength and stability of the multilateral trading system.

Australia's aims for the Subic Bay meeting included:

  • the tabling of IAPs which covered:

    • all Uruguay Round commitments;

    • all planned unilateral liberalisation offers; and

    • some specific new commitments to speed up the liberalisation process.

  • substantive measures to give the business sector some tangible results from the APEC process. Some of the possible areas which were under discussion prior to the meeting included:

    • introduction of an APEC Business Travel Card to avoid visa problems for business travellers and to facilitate business connections in the region;

    • the preparation of an APEC Tariff Database for operation on the Internet;

    • bringing forward the date for free trade in primary energy sources (oil, gas, coal and uranium) to 2000;

    • elimination of subsidies on energy production and consumption by 2005.

The Individual Action Plans (IAPs)

Draft IAPs were lodged in mid-1996 and were then continuously reviewed and revised until their formal presentation at the Ministerial meeting. This process will be repeated annually and will be supplemented by informal consultations. These plans map out in detail the changes and concessions by which the members intend to move toward the goal of free trade and investment.(10)

Incorporated into the 1996 Plans were existing multilateral commitments and established policies for unilateral liberalisation. This continues the liberalisation process which has already seen the simple average tariff in the region fall from 12 per cent in 1993 to 9 per cent in 1996. Although the existing commitments represent a useful beginning, the APEC process is a dynamic one and requires more than a simple re-iteration of commitments already made. Consequently, the IAPs also include new initiatives which constitute the first real steps which can be directly attributable to the APEC vision at Bogor.

The plans are the result of lengthy discussion and negotiation between the member economies, with each seeking to encourage its partners to include changes which it would find beneficial. The result is a complex mixture of approaches with some focussing mainly on tariff reduction, others on investment, others on services and so on. Overall, the offers are a useful first step on the road to 2010-2020.

Australia's IAP

In announcing the details of Australia's IAP, the Minister for Trade indicated that the progress already made by Australia towards trade liberalisation had left Australia well placed to meet the guidelines developed in the Osaka Action Agenda.(11)

Australia has already undertaken an extensive program of tariff review which has seen tariff levels for almost all products reduced to a maximum of 5 per cent. The main exceptions-passenger motor vehicles and textiles, clothing and footwear-are subject to industry programs running through to 2000, which will end with General Tariff rates set at 15 per cent. The protective regimes for these industries are currently under review by the Productivity Commission, which will recommend on the action to be taken post-2000. Australia's IAP has not attempted to prejudge the outcome of these reviews.

The 1996 IAP does include a commitment to review the General Tariff level on other products (0-5 per cent) post-2000. This commitment has sparked some discussion and criticism. In the context of the current dispute over the Productivity Commission's draft recommendations on passenger motor vehicles, the promised review has drawn criticism of the possibility of further reductions in protection.

On another level, the comment that this review is '... subject to an assessment of progress in the liberalisation commitments by others in APEC and the WTO...', has produced fears that the Australian Government is weakening in its commitment to the unilateral nature of the APEC liberalisation process and falling back on the idea of reciprocity (see box below). Of course, that idea has also drawn praise from those who feel that Australia has already given away too much.

APEC has, from the beginning, worked on the basis of unilateral concessions-changes offered by countries without seeking reciprocity from the beneficiaries. This is a significant difference to the GATT system which has operated on the basis of negotiated lists of concessions offering reciprocal benefits (at least among the developed nations).

In addition to tariff concessions, Australia's IAP includes commitments in ten other sectors:

Non-tariff         Export controls to be removed on some mineral products and     
Measures           production bounties to be phased out.                         

Services           Liberalisation of several services sectors beyond commitments  
                   already made in the UR under the General Agreement on Trade    
                   in Services (GATS).                                           

Investment         Screening system to be reviewed in 1997 and some               
                   rationalisation and liberalisation to be made for real         
                   estate.                                                       

Standards &        Standards in APEC priority sectors (electrical and electronic  
Conformance(12)    products, rubber products, food labelling and machinery) to    
                   be fully aligned by 2000. Australia will develop mutual       
                   recognition arrangements (MRAs) with interested APEC members. 

Customs            Continuation of harmonisation and simplification of Customs    
                   procedures. Australia will fully adopt the UN/EDIFACT         
                   standard for data interchange by 1999.                        

Intellectual       Uruguay Round obligations to be fully implemented; Australia   
Property Rights    is committed to further administrative improvements.          

Competition        Effective and transparent competition policy and laws to be    
Policy             maintained and enforced. Exemptions to be reviewed from        
                   1997-98.                                                      

Deregulation       Extensive domestic deregulation programs already under way or  
                   scheduled.                                                    

Mobility of        Introduction of Electronic Travel Authority and Australian     
Business People    Business Access Card from 1996, trial of APEC Business Travel  
                   Card with interested members in 1997.                         

Uruguay Round      Commitments will be fully implemented and some scheduled       
Outcomes           reductions will be accelerated.                               

A more detailed summary of Australia's IAP is shown at Appendix B.

Features of Other IAPs

As in Australia's case, the other APEC economies have incorporated existing multilateral and unilateral commitments in their 1996 IAPs. Appendix C sets out very briefly the essence of the commitments made by each APEC member. (13) The comments focus mainly on those offers which exceed Uruguay Round commitments.

Membership of APEC

Membership of APEC has been a controversial issue which has caused tension between present members and those countries wishing to be members; for example, between Australia and India. A device used to defuse any possible problems arising from the membership of the three Chinas (China, Taiwan and Hong Kong) has been to recognise members as economies, not as sovereign states.(14) A three year moratorium on the admittance of new members ended in 1996. As a result the issue of membership was prominent in discussions at the recent meeting.

India was refused entry during the moratorium but recently indicated an intention to seek entry again and sought Australia's backing. Although acknowledging that India had a 'strong and compelling case' Australia declined to give direct support, commenting that such decisions were taken by the current APEC membership as a whole.(15) The Australian Government has indicated that it is not opposed to expansion of the APEC membership but wishes to see solid progress towards the goal of free trade before facing the additional management problems of a larger membership.(16) The whole dispute is reminiscent of earlier reluctance by Australia and the ASEAN group over the inclusion of the USA.(17)

In the end, the Manila and Subic Bay meetings decided to end the moratorium but introduced an entry process which, in effect, delayed the addition of new members for three years. The countries wishing to join APEC, including India, Vietnam, Russia and Peru, will first have to satisfy the current members of their commitment to the goal of free trade and investment. The guidelines for this process will be announced at the Ministerial Meeting in 1997, the successful candidates will then be announced in 1998 but will not be formally admitted until 1999.

Other Outcomes of the Subic Bay Meeting

At the end of the meeting the APEC Economic Leaders declared that they had:

  • launched the implementation phase of the free and open trade and investment agenda;

  • delivered business facilitation measures;

  • agreed to advance common goals in the World Trade Organization;

  • developed ways to strengthen economic and technical co-operation; and

  • engaged the business sector as a full partner in the APEC process.

In addition to endorsing the MAPA proposals and offers (including the Individual Action Plans), the leaders instructed their Ministers to further review the IAPs with a view to improving them by next year's meeting and to identify sectors where early liberalisation would bring positive effects on trade, investment and economic growth.

The leaders endorsed the primacy of the multilateral system under the WTO and the need for regional and multilateral arrangements to support and reinforce each other. They expressed their determination to ensure the success of the WTO Ministerial Conference in Singapore and urged members to complete outstanding negotiations on telecommunications and services and to establish a substantive and balanced work program for the WTO.

The United States sought the support of APEC members for completion of an Information Technology Agreement in the WTO. In their Declaration the leaders called for the completion of such an Agreement that would substantially eliminate tariffs by 2000.

The Declaration also endorsed the adoption of a framework of principles for economic co-operation and development and re-affirmed the central role of the business sector in the APEC process.

Australia's Potential Benefits from APEC

The membership of the APEC group includes some of Australia's largest trading partners. The commitment of those economies to a continuing process of trade liberalisation promises significant benefits for Australia. The reform of restrictive policies in existing trade regimes will promote and facilitate the international movement of goods, services and capital.(18) The changes necessary for Australia to conform to the Bogor Declaration are comparatively small when compared to those required of other APEC members. In exchange, Australia will have access to the most dynamic region in the world and the chance to participate in its growth.

As the liberalisation process proceeds among APEC members, Australia can expect that the combination of rising incomes in those economies and reductions in barriers to exports will provide substantial new opportunities for Australian exporters and investors. There will be greater certainty about the security of future market access to the economies of member countries and greater transparency in the policies faced by APEC trading partners and investors.

Trade in services and investment in infrastructure are likely to be particularly rich sources of such opportunities.(19) Australia can also expect benefits from increased productivity in local industry and an increased level of innovation, both of which are stimulated by greater exposure to competition.(20)

The process will not be devoid of pain, but the benefits to be gained through trade liberalisation in APEC far outweigh the costs. It was estimated at the end of 1995 that free trade would add 3.8 per cent ($US 745 billion) to the region's total income. This equates to more than the combined Australian and South Korean economies at the time or more than one and a half times the size of the Chinese economy.

In Australia's case, it was estimated that real income would be increased by 6.8 per cent or $A40 billion by the move to free trade in the region and that this growth could be expected to generate around 500 000 new jobs.(21)

It is the expected future growth of the region which promises to produce the greatest gains for Australian exporters. A recent estimate suggested that the Asian market for food products will be worth approximately $1000 billion by the year 2000, telecommunication services will be worth about $300 billion by 2010 and investment in energy production and supply about $500 billion by 2000.

The rapid growth of many of the APEC economies is placing their existing infrastructure under tremendous strain. The rebuilding and upgrading of infrastructure facilities such as roads, ports, airports, railways and factories will require the allocation of a large proportion of available investment funds over the next decade. To mention only a few examples, a recent newspaper report claimed that the ASEAN group alone would spend more than US$6 billion on port construction over the next four years and Taiwan is planning to spend about US$16 billion on a high speed railway. Shanghai will spend about $US30 billion on infrastructure in the next five years. An earlier report estimated that US$1.5 trillion would be spent on infrastructure in the region in the next 10 years-a figure supported by the World Bank's estimate that investments of $US150 to 200 billion per year would be needed for infrastructure in the region.

The true test of APEC will ultimately be the extent to which members can realise the potential benefits. The group still has many critics, who argue that issues such as the lack of legal sanctions, the vast differences in economic development and potential among the membership and the lack of a formal organisation make it impossible for the group to be successful. There are still concerns also that some members will be delay concessions as long as possible in strategic sectors to achieve short term advantages, a practice already being criticised in the WTO.

For Australia, one of the key measures will be the extent of liberalisation of markets for agricultural products and the rate at which that liberalisation occurs. The reluctance of the WTO membership to discuss free trade in this sector makes it a useful litmus test for APEC's effectiveness. Of similar concern will be the scale of reductions in the high levels of protection currently accorded to motor vehicles in several APEC countries.

Conclusion

The test faced by the APEC leaders at Subic Bay was to show that they intended to put into practice the rhetoric of previous meetings. The results of the test, measured by the content of the individual IAPs, could not be considered an overwhelming success but it was at least a solid start to a lengthy and difficult task.

The APEC grouping presents immense opportunities but against these must be set the costs and difficulties which inevitably accompany changes on the scale envisioned for APEC.

In Australia, the more highly protected and less internationally competitive industries are likely to find the transition to free trade difficult. The motor vehicle industry has already protested strongly at the prospect of a reduction in protective tariffs to 5 per cent. The textiles, clothing and footwear industry has similar fears and blames reductions in protection for job losses in the industry.

Australia faces a unique situation. What is needed is not simply a total number of jobs but jobs becoming available where they are needed. The industries under the greatest pressure (e.g. motor vehicles and textiles, clothing and footwear) present a particular problem. They have large work forces, often based in areas where alternative employment is difficult to find; this means that in those areas large scale job losses require not just retraining but also relocation of the workforce.

If Australia can take advantage of the opportunities offered by APEC, it would give the Government the scope to apply reconstruction programs to help those sectors having real difficulty in dealing with the changed competitive conditions. The negative effects on employment could be absorbed in sectors which are able to compete internationally with minimal protection especially in the small to medium sized enterprise sector, which APEC has targetted for special attention and encouragement. As noted above, however, this is a task which will involve considerable reconstruction and disruption in some areas.

Overall, APEC provides opportunities which Australia cannot afford to miss. The problem is that these opportunities have come at a difficult time-when the industry sectors under most pressure are large employers of labour in an economy already coping with high unemployment. It will require bold policies to provide the capital formation and the entrepreneurship to grasp the opportunities and the reconstruction assistance to see the key industries through the transition stage.

Endnotes

  1. APEC is often loosely described as a 'region' despite the spread of its membership right around the rim of the Pacific Ocean

  2. Derived from Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, The APEC Region Trade and Investment November 1996, Australian Supplement: 31.

  3. A Pacific Future of Prosperity and Stability: Sustaining APEC's Remarkable Momentum, Secretary Christopher, US Department of State Dispatch, 25 November 1996, vol. 7, no. 48: 586.

  4. Bureau of Industry Economics, Potential Gains to Australia from APEC (Occasional Paper 29, 1995), Canberra, The Bureau, 1995: 3.

  5. ibid: 2.

  6. Melissa Castan, 'APEC: International Institution? A Pacific Solution', University of Tasmania Law Review, vol. 15, no. 1 (1996): 61.

  7. Ippei Yamazawa, 'Implementing the APEC Bogor Declaration', Japan Review of International Affairs, vol. 9, no. 3 (Summer 1995): 179.

  8. Bureau of Industry Economics, op. cit.: 22

  9. Details have been drawn mainly from a Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade briefing paper, 'Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, MAPA 1996, Manila Action Plan for APEC, Volume 1'.

  10. 'Australia's 1996 APEC Individual Action Plan', Statement by the Minister for Trade, the Hon. Tim Fischer, MP, to the House of Representatives, 19 November 1996: 1.

  11. ibid: 2.

  12. Conformance refers to Conformity Assessments between economies. It covers procedures for sampling, testing and evaluation of products and the verification and assurance of conformity with accepted standards.

  13. Details of IAPs in this section are drawn from 'APEC Individual Action Plans', a briefing paper prepared by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, November 1996.

  14. Castan, op. cit.: 63.

  15. Michael Dwyer, 'APEC's Ban on New Members Likely to Stay for 2-3 Years', Australian Financial Review, 6 November 1996: 3.

  16. Don Greenlees, 'APEC Braces for Debate Over New Member Nations', Australian, 18 November 1996: 6.

  17. Castan, op. cit.: 62-63.

  18. Bureau of Industry Economics, op. cit.: 31.

  19. ibid: 2.

  20. ibid: 70.

  21. Details taken from pages 4 and 5 of 'The Benefits of APEC Liberalisation', a briefing paper prepared by Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, November 1995.

Appendix A: Eminent Persons Group and APEC Business Advisory Council Reports

Eminent Persons Group (EPG)

The third EPG Report, entitled Implementing the APEC Vision, was released in August 1995 prior to the Osaka meeting. It presented a wide ranging list of recommendations touching on most of the sectors under consideration in APEC. The following summary highlights some of the more important recommendations.

  • The report proposed that members halve the implementation time on Uruguay Round commitments and that APEC members who were not already members of WTO should become Contracting Parties as soon as possible.

  • It also proposed the creation of a voluntary APEC Dispute Mediation Service to apply to all issues (i.e. a wider charter than the WTO equivalent) and emphasising mediation and conciliation rather than arbitration.

  • Concern was expressed in the report about abusive implementation of anti-dumping policies which tended to reduce competition in the domestic market. In its report Implementing the APEC Vision the EPG proposed a linkage between competition policy and anti-dumping policy to '...pursue the legitimate goals of anti-dumping policy while avoiding its potential abuses.'

  • Several recommendations referred to the necessity for harmonisation and mutual recognition of standards within APEC and the alignment of APEC regulatory standards with international standards.

  • On investment, the Group recommended that APEC's Non Binding Investment Principles should be more widely applied and that the sectors on transfer of funds, capital movements, national treatment, performance requirements and investment incentives were in need of strengthening.

APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC)

ABAC, in its first report APEC Means Business released in November 1996, put forward as its aim '... to generate specific, results-oriented recommendations to advance the APEC vision in ways most valuable to the region's business and to the wider APEC community.'

The report made recommendations in five key areas:

Cross-border Flows:

  • endorsed the creation of APEC Business Visas and the establishment of APEC Business Immigration Lanes in ports of entry;

  • endorsed the establishment of an APEC Central Registry for Trademarks and Patents;

  • supported the development of Common Professional Standards for business related services;

  • advocated adherence to 100 per cent implementation of the Bogor trade and investment liberalisation goals and acceleration of the process if possible.

Finance and Investment

  • proposed establishment of APEC Voluntary Investment Projects which could be given protection beyond that afforded by the Non-binding Investment Principles.

Infrastructure

  • proposed Joint Public-Private Sector Infrastructure Roundtables to examine the infrastructure needs of APEC economies and assist in removing impediments to private sector involvement in infrastructure projects.

Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and Human Resource Development (HRD)

  • endorsed establishment of an APEC network for SMEs focussing on HRD, access to credit and capital, access to technology and information and access to market opportunities;

  • endorsed Roundtables in each economy to bring together all appropriate groups to address the growth and export financing needs of SMEs;

  • endorsed the collection and reporting of data on SME statistical indicators.

Economic and Technical Cooperation

  • asked Economic Leaders to launch APEC's new model of economic and technical cooperation.

Appendix B: Summary of Australia's Individual Action Plan

Australia's Individual Action Plan (IAP) complies with the principles and guidelines of the Osaka Action Agenda (OAA) endorsed by APEC Leaders in 1995. The IAP is comprehensive and includes measures that go beyond Australia's existing Uruguay Round commitments. It notes that some measures will require the approval of the Australian Parliament.

Tariffs

The IAP notes that Australia's general applied tariff was reduced to a maximum of 5 per cent in mid-1996 and lists the exceptions to the general rate. There is a commitment to continue existing tariff reduction programs for the Passenger Motor Vehicle and Textile Clothing and Footwear sectors to the year 2000. These tariff reductions go beyond Australia's Uruguay Round obligations.

In the medium term, there is a commitment to review the general tariff (0-5 per cent) by the year 2000; or earlier; taking into account, inter alia, progress by APEC members in addressing the OAA reform commitments. The post-2000 tariff levels for the PMV and TCF sectors will be decided following inquiries by the Australian Productivity Commission during 1996 and 1997.

Non-Tariff Measures

The IAP lists Australia's existing non-tariff measures and notes that these measures are generally only used for soundly-based health and safety reasons and to discharge Australia's international obligations i.e. climate change. There is a commitment to abolish export controls on certain mineral products (coal, mineral sands, liquefied natural gas, bauxite and alumina), and to phase out remaining production bounties.

Services

Australia is committed to fulfil its GATS obligations and to participate actively in future GATS negotiations. Australia is also committed to further liberalise its services regime, Examples include:

Telecommunications - Introduce full and open competition from 1 July 1997 and privatise one third of Telstra with 35 per cent of the float available to foreign investors.

Transport-Wind back maritime cabotage protection by the year 2000 and discontinue schemes which provide financial incentives for certain Australian vessels. In aviation, progressively liberalise access to the market for freight and passengers and ensure airlines are free to set fares in response to market conditions.

Financial Services-Conduct an inquiry into the financial sector by 31 March 1997.

Investment

Australia provides MFN treatment under its foreign investment regime and operates a liberal and transparent screening system. The screening system for foreign investment in 'non-sensitive' sectors (i.e. other than media, telecommunications, and civil aviation) will be reviewed by mid-1997. The IAP includes an undertaking to rationalise restrictions on foreign investment in real estate by mid-1997, involving some overall liberalisation.

Standards and Conformance

Australia's standards are already substantially aligned with relevant international standards. Standards in APEC's priority sectors (electrical products, rubber products, food labelling and machinery) will be fully aligned by 2000. Australia is actively developing mutual recognition arrangements (MRAs) in APEC for food products, vehicle standards and telecommunications terminal equipment, and are pursuing bilateral MRAs with interested APEC members.

Customs

Australia will continue to harmonise and simplify customs procedures in order to facilitate trade in the region. Australia has already introduced an advance tariff classification ruling system and will fully adopt the UN/EDIFACT standard by 1999.

Intellectual Property Rights (IPRs)

Australia has fully implemented its Uruguay Round obligations and is committed to ensuring that IPRs are granted expeditiously, and that adequate civil and administrative procedures and remedies are in place.

Competition Policy

Australia has a sophisticated competition policy and is committed to maintaining and enforcing effective and transparent competition policy and laws. Australia will review exemptions to its competitive conduct rules from 1997-98 and pursue a policy of competitive neutrality where public-sector businesses are not advantaged over their private-sector rivals.

Deregulation

The IAP provides an extensive list of domestic deregulation programs that are currently under way or scheduled.

Mobility of Business People

Australia will progressively introduce the Electronic Travel Authority from 1996 and introduce an Australian Business Access Card in 1996 designed to enhance the access of foreign business people to Australia by streamlining border processing. Building on these initiatives, Australia will trial the APEC Business Travel Card with the Philippines and Korea in 1997. The APEC Business Travel Card will provide the equivalent of visa-free travel for accredited business people to participating economies.

Implementation of the Uruguay Round Outcomes

Australia will fully implement its Uruguay Round commitments and, as part of its 1995 Osaka Downpayment Package, will accelerate scheduled reductions in tariff bindings and broaden commitments on services.

Appendix C: Features of Other Individual Action Plans

Brunei                   Concentrates mainly on tariff reductions and has extended those    
                         concessions beyond UR commitments.                                
                         Also includes some measures on services.                          

Canada                   Includes extensive tariff reductions beyond Uruguay Round          
                         agreements, including elimination of tariffs on motor vehicle      
                         parts. Elimination of export subsidies on grains and oilseeds is  
                         important to Australia.                                           
                         Services: Canada will eliminate its telecommunications monopolies  
                         and will review market access and national treatment               
                         restrictions.                                                     

Chile                    Promises to reduce almost all tariffs and eliminate most           
                         non-tariff barriers by 2010.                                      

China                    Includes commitment to reduce simple average applied tariff from   
                         23 per cent to 15 per cent by 2000.                               
                         Non-tariff measures inconsistent with WTO rules to be eliminated   
                         by 2020.                                                          
                         Services: China will expand access for foreign companies in the    
                         foreign exchange market, banking, insurance and securities         
                         sectors. Barriers will be reviewed in the retail, maritime and    
                         energy sectors. Trade in telecommunications will be aligned with  
                         international rules as will standards in several areas.           

Hong Kong                Tariff reductions will be accelerated to reach zero by 2010.      
                         Import controls on a number of products will be progressively      
                         relaxed or abolished.                                             
                         Services: International access will be reviewed in several areas. 

Indonesia                Tariffs will be reduced to 10 per cent or below by 2003 (except    
                         for automotive and agricultural products). General provisions     
                         included for tariffs to be reduced to zero by 2020 and for         
                         progressive reduction of non-tariff measures and simplification    
                         of import licensing procedures.                                   
                         Services: Commitments on tourism and transport and promised        
                         efforts to relax market access restrictions and discriminatory     
                         treatment in other services sectors.                              
                                                                                            
                         Investment: Continuous review of the investment regime,            
                         legislation to ensure compliance with intellectual property        
                         agreements, privatisation of electricity, steel, shipping and      
                         public railway sectors.                                           

Japan                    Accelerated implementation of UR obligations. Revision of         
                         arrangements for entry of plant and animal imports.               
                         Services: Review of access for foreign lawyers, revised            
                         conditions for mining investors, alignment of all domestic         
                         standards with international standards by 2010.                   

Korea                    Inclusion of additional tariff concessions beyond UR commitments. 
                         Investment plans will open many sectors to foreign investors by    
                         2000.                                                             
                         Services: Improved conditions for foreign accounting firms and     
                         lawyers. Initiatives in the telecommunications area conditional   
                         on the outcome of the WTO negotiations.                           

Malaysia                 Additional tariff concessions beyond UR commitments. Tariff       
                         reductions to be continued as part of the annual budget.          
                         Services: Foreign investment permitted in some additional          
                         sectors.                                                          
                         Commitment to enhance transparency of investment regime and        
                         review export regulations.                                        

Mexico                   Reduction of tariffs on computers and computer parts. Removal of  
                         restrictions on market access, MFN exemptions and limits on        
                         national treatment in some services sectors.                      

New Zealand              Tariff reductions beyond UR commitments; applied tariffs to be     
                         reduced to zero by 2010.                                          
                         Services: Examination of possibilities for further services        
                         liberalisation.                                                   

Papua New Guinea         Tariff concessions beyond UR commitments; tariffs to zero by 2020  
                         and all non-tariff measures removed by 1997.                      
                         Services: Corporatisation and privatisation of services in         
                         energy, water, telecommunications and aviation from 1997.         
                         Foreign investment to be progressively permitted in previously     
                         restricted sectors.                                               
                                                                                            

The Philippines          Tariff concessions beyond UR commitments.                         
                         General commitments to reduce tariffs, non-tariff measures and     
                         services barriers.                                                
                         Services: A wide range of commitments, national standards to be    
                         aligned with international standards by 2020.                     

Singapore                85 per cent of tariffs to zero by 2000, 100 per cent by 2010.     
                         Services: initiatives beyond UR commitments; restrictions on       
                         foreign services providers to be reduced.                         

Chinese Taipei           Progressive tariff reductions to an average 6 per cent by 2010.   
                         Non-tariff measures to be progressively eliminated after           
                         accession to WTO.                                                 
                         Services: Initiatives to increase number of sectors open to        
                         foreign investors plus new investment-related measures.           

Thailand                 Tariff reductions beyond UR commitments; remaining tariff          
                         barriers to be reviewed. Increases to tariff quota levels beyond  
                         UR commitments.                                                   
                         Accelerated implementation of WTO Customs Valuation Agreement.    
                         General commitment to relax and remove non-tariff measures.       
                         Services: A wide range of services liberalisation and investment   
                         measures.                                                         

United States            Sectoral free trade proposal, i.e. eliminate tariffs in heavily    
                         traded sectors (this offer conditional on APEC members offering    
                         reciprocal commitments and agreeing to bind them in the WTO).     
                         Services: Agreement to participate in financial services and       
                         general services negotiations in 2000. Results of WTO             
                         negotiations on telecommunications agreement to be added.         
                         Prepared to negotiate open-skies aviation agreements.             

 
 

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