Background Note
Population change in Commonwealth Electoral Divisions, 2001 to 2006
Online only 24 Janaury 2008
Paul Nelson
Statistics and Mapping Section
Introduction
The Parliamentary Library has obtained from
the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) unpublished 2001 and 2006 data
on the Estimated Resident Population (ERP) of Commonwealth Electoral Divisions
based on current electoral boundaries. This allows analysis of various
aspects of population change over the 5 year period 2001 to 2006 on a
consistent conceptual and geographic basis. Census data cannot be used
for this analysis because the 2006 Census of Population and Housing data
were processed on a place of usual residence basis whereas the 2001 Census
was processed on a place of enumeration basis (where a person was on census
night rather than where they usually reside). This means users cannot
directly compare data between the two censii. An additional complication
in the use of census data is that electoral boundaries in all states and
territories except Western Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory
have changed since 2001 due to electoral redistributions.
ERP estimates of the population are based on census counts by place of
usual residence, to which are added the estimated net census undercount
and Australian residents estimated to be temporarily living overseas.
ERP data are considered to be better estimates of the true population
than census data and ERP figures also have the added advantage of being
available as time series on a consistent basis.
The source 2001 and 2006 ERP data by single year of age and sex as supplied
by the ABS are available from the Electorate Atlas resource on the Parliamentary
Library’s intranet (http://libiis1/Library_Services/electoralatlas/ERP_2001_2006.xls).
An analysis of summary data for the total population, the 0 to 14 years
age group, and the 65 and over age group are presented in the following
tables.
Main features
A brief description of the contents of each table is given below together
with a summary of some of the more interesting features of the data.
Table 1—Total population
Table1a
Table 1b
Table 1a shows the total Estimated Resident Population in 2001 and 2006
as well as the population change and the growth rate for all electorates.
The data are displayed in alphabetic order of electorates. Table 1b shows
the same data as in Table 1a however the data are ranked by the population
growth rate.
The division with the lowest total population in 2006 is Lyons (95 621).
It also had the lowest population in 2001. The seven divisions with the
lowest population comprise all the divisions in Tasmania and the Northern
Territory. Tasmania retains five electoral divisions due to the Constitutional
provision that guarantees a minimum of five seats in the House of Representatives
for each ‘Original State’. The calculation of representation entitlement
that last occurred in November 2005 resulted in the Northern Territory
having a quota of just over 1.5 resulting in an entitlement of two seats.
As a result the two divisions in the Northern Territory have relatively
small populations. The division with the highest population is Canberra
(170 566), followed by Reid (168 851) and Holt (167 062).
The Australian population grew by an average 6.6 per cent over the 2001
to 2006 period. At the electorate level, Fadden (31.8 per cent) was the
fastest growing electorate, followed by Sydney (25.3 per cent) and Lalor
(24.9 per cent). There are 10 electorates that declined in size. The electorate
with the lowest growth rate was Parkes (-3.6 per cent) followed by Calare
(-2.2 per cent).
Table 2—Population aged 0 to 14 years
Table 2a
Table 2b
Table 2a shows the Estimated Resident Population aged 0 to 14 years in
2001 and 2006 as well as this age group’s population change and growth
rate for all electorates. The data are displayed in alphabetic order of
electorates. Table 2b shows the same data as in Table 2a however the data
are ranked by the 0 to 14 years population growth rate.
The Australian population aged 0 to 14 years increased by 1.6 per cent
over the period 2001 to 2006 which was significantly below the 6.6 per
cent growth rate of the total population. There were significant variations
in the growth rate for individual electorates with the highest growth
rate occurring in Fadden (28.8 per cent) followed by Oxley (21.0 per cent)
and Gorton (20.2 per cent). There were 66 electorates that experienced
a decline in the 0 to 14 years age group. The largest percentage decline
occurred in Canberra (-12.2 per cent), followed by Parkes (-8.6 per cent)
and Hughes (-7.9 per cent).
Table 3—Population aged 65 years and over
Table 3a
Table 3b
Table 3a shows the Estimated Resident Population aged 65 years and over
in 2001 and 2006 as well as this age group’s population change and growth
rate for all electorates. The data are displayed in alphabetic order of
electorates. Table 3b shows the same data as in Table 3a however the data
are ranked by growth rate of the 65 and over age group.
The Australian population aged 65 years and over increased by 10.3 per
cent over the period 2001 to 2006. At the electorate level, the highest
growth rate occurred in Holt (38.9 per cent) followed by Cowan (38.7 per
cent) and Lalor (38.0 per cent). There are only 16 electorates that experienced
a decline in the aged population over this period. The largest percentage
decline occurred in Griffith (-6.3 per cent), followed by Reid (-5.3 per
cent) and Blaxland (-3.6 per cent).
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