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Forecasts |
Projections |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
1999-2000 |
2000-2001 |
2001-2002 |
2002-2003 |
2003-2004 |
|
Real GDP |
4.25 |
3.75 |
3.5 |
3.25 |
3.25 |
|
Employment |
2.75 |
2.25 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
|
Wages |
3.0 |
4.25 |
3.25 |
3.25 |
3.25 |
|
CPI |
2.5 |
5.75 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
The following table reproduces the Governments forecasts for various fiscal aggregates for 1999-2000 and 2000-2001, together with its projections out to 2003-2004, where they have been included in the Budget.
|
Forecasts |
Projections |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
1999-2000 |
2000-2001 |
2001-2002 |
2002-2003 |
2003-2004 |
|
Revenue ($b) |
164.7 |
153.3 |
158.6 |
168.3 |
180.5 |
|
Expenses ($b) |
155.2 |
150.3 |
156.5 |
160.1 |
165.5 |
|
Fiscal balance ($b) |
9.7 |
5.4 |
1.1 |
7.6 |
13.9 |
|
Net underlying |
7.8 |
2.8 |
3.2 |
8.8 |
14.4 |
In relation to the significant decreases in the forecast level of revenue and expenses between 1999-2000 and 2000-2001 in the above table, Budget Paper No.1(2) comments
Total revenue and expenses are expected to fall markedly as a percentage of GDP in 2000-01. These reductions reflect an effective break in both series with the introduction of The New Tax System, in particular the abolition of the wholesale sales tax and the abolition of financial assistance grants to the States. In addition, the delivery of personal income tax cuts will result in a large reduction in revenue. All revenue from the GST is appropriated to the States.
In relation to the fiscal balance, the Paper comments:(3)
In accrual terms, the fiscal balance is expected to be in surplus by $5.4 billion or 0.8 per cent of GDP in 2000-01, an improvement of $1.0 billion on the corresponding estimate at the time of the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook 1999-2000 (MYEFO). This follows an estimated surplus of $9.7 billion in 1999-2000.
Regarding the net underlying cash balance ('the surplus') the Paper comments:(4)
In cash terms, an underlying surplus of $2.8 billion or 0.4 per cent of GDP is expected in 2000-01, an improvement of $2.3 billion on the corresponding estimate at the time of MYEFO.(5) The outcome for 1999-2000 is estimated to be much stronger than forecast at the time of MYEFO, an improvement of $4.4 billion to an estimated outcome of $7.8 billion.
There has of course been some criticism about the integrity of the surplus. This has focused mainly on the inclusion as revenue of the anticipated proceeds of auctioning the spectrum licenses for 'third generation' mobile telecommunications and the decision not to count the $1.66 billion GST assistance to the States as an expense.(6)
Other forecasts of interest in the Budget include a fall in the current account deficit on the balance of payments from 5.5% of GDP (1999-2000) to 4.75% (2000-2001)(7) and a fall in the unemployment rate from 7% (1999-2000 average) to 6.5% (2000-2001 average).(8)
Expenditure
Significant new(9) expenditure measures include (figures are over four years unless otherwise stated):-
The amount available for agencies expenditure on Departmental and administered items is specified in the Schedule to the Bill. The total amount specified $38 530.846 million (clause 6).
Where an amount is specified in the Schedule for an administered item, the Minister for Finance may issue the lesser of the amount specified in the item and the amount determined by the Minister having regard to the expenses incurred by the entity in relation to the item in the 1999-2000 year (clause 8). In relation to Departmental items, the Minister must issue the amount specified:
The Minister for Finance may increase the amount in a Departmental item/s by determination to a total maximum of $20 million (clause 10), while clause 11 provides that where there are unforeseen circumstances and the need is urgent, the Minister for Finance may increase expenditure by a total of $175 million. Parliament must be notified of increased spending under clauses 10 and 11.
Clause 14 will formally appropriate the funds for the Bill.
Angus Martyn
29 May 2000
Bills Digest Service
Information and Research Services
This paper has been prepared for general distribution to Senators and Members of the Australian Parliament. While great care is taken to ensure that the paper is accurate and balanced, the paper is written using information publicly available at the time of production. The views expressed are those of the author and should not be attributed to the Information and Research Services (IRS). Advice on legislation or legal policy issues contained in this paper is provided for use in parliamentary debate and for related parliamentary purposes. This paper is not professional legal opinion. Readers are reminded that the paper is not an official parliamentary or Australian government document.
ISSN 1328-8091
© Commonwealth of Australia 2000
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Published by the Department of the Parliamentary Library, 2000.