List of Tables

List of Figures

Executive summary

The last decade has seen a major increase in both the scale and complexity of international population movements. The proportion of the global population for whom international movement is part of their calculus of choice as they examine their life chances has increased massively. The constellation of forces driving movement between countries is different and the context in which migration is occurring has been transformed in both origin and destination countries. A half century ago relatively few countries were influenced in a major way by international migration. Now a majority of the worlds nations are so affected. Australia was one of a handful of traditional migration countries (along with the US, Canada and New Zealand), which drew the bulk of their immigrants from Europe. Overwhelmingly the main type of international population movement was of more or less permanent migration involving settlement in the destination country.

This paper argues that in the contemporary situation the drivers of international migration have changed and as a result the international population movement influencing Australia has changed dramatically. Yet much Australian thinking and study of international migration remains anchored in a paradigm of migration which applied in the first four post-war decades. Policy making and research into international migration in Australia needs to be undertaken in such a way as to take account of the shifts which have occurred in the drivers of international migration and in the types of international movement affecting Australia.

Perhaps the greatest change which has occurred in Australian immigration in the last decade is that whereas in the first five post-war decades Australia emphatically eschewed acceptance of temporary workers in favour of an overwhelming emphasis on settlement migration there has been a reversal with a number of new visa categories designed to attract temporary residents to work in Australia (especially the temporary business and student visa categories). As a result there has been an exponential increase in non permanent migration to Australia so that while in 20012002 there were 88 900 incoming permanent settlers to Australia there were a total of 340 200 foreigners granted temporary residence in Australia in that year. On 30 June 2001 there were 554 200 people in Australia on a temporary basis of whom 289 300 had the right to work. These people differ in many important ways from permanent settlers but the bulk of our research and knowledge relates to the impact of the permanent settlers. The much larger numbers of temporary residents are also having significant effects on labour and housing markets as well as other areas of Australian society.

However, settler migration to Australia has also undergone profound change in the last decade or so. There has been a substantial reduction in the proportion of our migrants drawn from traditional sources of the UK and Europe while the numbers from Asia, Oceania and Africa have increased. Also our model of the immigrant settler being someone, who applies for immigration in a foreign country, is processed and then some time later arrives in the country needs modification. Three out of every 10 settlers to Australia are onshore immigrants in that they are already in Australia under a temporary residence visa and seek to transfer to permanent residence. There has been a substantial shift in the balance of the settlement program away from family and humanitarian to skill selected immigrants. Accordingly the labour market performance of recent migrants has improved substantially while in the United States and Canada it has declined. There has also been a substantial increase in governmental efforts to influence where new immigrants settle in Australia. There has been a raft of State Specific and Regional Migration Schemes introduced in an attempt to reduce the proportion of immigrants being attracted to Sydney, and, to a lesser extent, some other major urban centres.

There is a tendency for Australia to be thought of purely as an immigration country. Yet it has a substantial outflow of emigrants which has increased in recent years with the internationalisation of labour markets and other globalisation effects. It is estimated that there are around one million Australians living on a permanent or long term basis overseas. In relation to the resident population this is one of the worlds major diasporas. The of Australian residents is highly selective of young, highly educated, skilled and high income groups and has led to discussions of brain drain. Undoubtedly however, there is a brain gain since skilled immigrants outnumber their emigrant counterparts yet suspicions remain that we may be losing the brightest and best among our young people. The setting up a senate Inquiry into Australian Expatriates indicates the significance which is now being given to Australians overseas. It is argued that Australia needs to develop a policy toward its skilled workforce which includes four elementsrecruitment, retention, return and re-engagement. A diaspora policy is an important part of that. It should seek to include the diaspora more on a cultural level; it is important that expatriates who still consider themselves Australian are included more in the mainstream of Australian life. On an economic level, there are a myriad of ways in which the expertise, experience and contacts of the diaspora can be harnessed to benefit Australia in a rapidly globalising economy. We must realize that there is much to gain from young Australians leaving Australia and acquiring experience, knowledge and connections in foreign nations. However, if a substantial proportion can return, the country can gain a double dividendnot just retaining their talents but having those talents enhanced by the period away. Perhaps we should be working toward policies which facilitate brain circulation as opposed to attempting to stem brain drain.

There is no doubt that the last few years have seen a transformation of the scale, characteristics and significance of international population movements. This demands a continuous reassessment of Australias immigration policy and program as well as a full assessment of the global situation impinging on population movements to and from Australia. Australia can no longer confine its consideration of immigration to what is happening in Australia. The globalisation of capital, the transformation of international travel and communications systems, the instant worldwide distribution of information, the increasing levels of education, the internationalisation of many labour markets and the creation of political and environmental refugees, are among only a few of the processes and trends which are producing an exponential increase in all forms of international population movements and opening up such movement to a much broader spectrum of the worlds population. No nation can isolate itself from the global system of which population movement is an important part. These changes not only have important implications for people wishing to come to Australia, but also for Australian residents wishing to move elsewhere.

All of the worlds nations are facing challenges associated with the new global regime of international migration in what has been termed the Age of Migration. However, few are as well positioned to meet those challenges as Australia. The long experience as a country of immigration, especially during the post-Second World War era, has given Australia an almost unique capacity not only to cope with new migration pressures but also to develop policy and program approaches which maximise the benefit of those developments. Australia has developed a culture of migration in which there is broad acceptance in the community of the benefits that immigration can deliver. This contrasts sharply with community attitudes in many nations. Moreover, Australian politicians have developed a more sophisticated understanding of the issues surrounding migration and settlement than in most other nations so that the capacity to formulate, develop, introduce and operate sound and effective policy is considerable. Finally, it is often overlooked that Australia is one of very few nations that has had a federal government department devoted to immigration and settlement for more than half a century. This has meant that there has been the development of a skilled and committed cadre of immigration bureaucrats over a number of generations. This substantial body of people with a level of professionalism, knowledge and experience gives Australia a huge advantage in confronting the challenges created by the New Migration. The need for Management of Migration has become the mantra emerging from international fora, conferences, summits and meetings concerned with international migration. However, an essential element in any migration management is the availability of human resources, institutions and infrastructure to develop and operate effective management strategies and Australia is extremely well positioned in that respect.

Introduction

The last decade has seen a major increase in both the scale and complexity of international population movements.⁽¹⁾ The proportion of the global population for whom international movement is part of their calculus of choice as they examine their life chances has increased massively. The constellation of forces driving movement between countries is different and the context in which migration is occurring has been transformed in both origin and destination countries. A half century ago relatively few countries were influenced in a major way by international migration. Now a majority of the worlds nations are so affected. Australia was one of a handful of traditional migration countries (along with the US, Canada and New Zealand), which drew the bulk of their immigrants from Europe. Overwhelmingly the main type of international population movement was of more or less permanent migration involving settlement in the destination country.

The present paper argues that in the contemporary situation, the drivers of international migration have changed and as a result the international population movement influencing Australia has changed dramatically. Yet much Australian thinking and study of international migration remains anchored in a paradigm of migration which applied in the first four post-war decades. Policy making and research into international migration in Australia needs to be undertaken in such a way as to take account of the shifts which have occurred in the drivers of international migration and in the types of international movement affecting Australia. This paper attempts first to briefly consider the main dimensions of the new global international migration and then considers the shifts which are occurring in Australias international migration patterns. It concludes with a consideration of some of the implications for future policy development and research to inform that policy.

The new international migration

International migration has increased in scale and complexity as both a causal factor and effect of globalisation. For half of the post-war era, global international migration has been dominated by movement from Europe to the traditional migration countries of Australia, Canada, the United States and New Zealand. However almost all nations of the world are now influenced significantly by migration and non-Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) nations have become the dominant sources of migrants. One way in which the significance of the changes can best be demonstrated is by examining Table 1, which shows the numbers moving permanently between Australia and the United Kingdom since 1991. Australia has experienced a significant net gain of immigrant settlers from the UK for more than two centuries. Yet Table 1 indicates that while in the early 1990s, there were significantly more people moving permanently from the UK to Australia the net flow was reversed in 2001 and 2002. There was a net gain in 2003 but there may have been a new method adopted by the Department of Immigration, Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs (DIMIA) to make estimations.

Table 1: Australia: permanent migration to and from the United Kingdom

Year	From	To	Net
1991	20 867	6332	14535
1992	14465	6251	8214
1993	9484	5392	4092
1994	8661	4815	3846
1995	10 238	4835	5403
1996	10 520	5228	5292
1997	9001	5773	3228
1998	8424	6561	1863
1999	7211	6789	422
2000	7561	7466	95
2001	7027	7854	-827
2002	7525	8273	-748
2003	11 842	8408	3434

Source: DIMIA, Immigration update and Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Migration Australia, various issues.

This reflects a number of developments:

        Europe has been transformed from being the major global source of international migrants for much of the twentieth century to being a major destination for migrants

        London as one of the worlds global cities is now drawing people from all over the world due to its key role in the globalisation process⁽²⁾

        much of the contemporary flow from the UK is of people who come to Australia and seek temporary residence rather than permanent residence as working holiday makers, temporary business migrants and job transfers. Of course there is also a significant non-permanent flow from Australia to the UK.

Australia continues to be an important global player in migration but it is within quite a different context.

Figure 1 shows that in terms of total stock of migrants, Australia ranks ninth in the world. Other major destinations include the traditional migration countries, several European nations, areas of refugees settlement and Middle Eastern countries receiving large numbers of guest workers. Figure 2 indicates that Australia ranks similarly in the percentage that migrants make up of the total resident population in those destination countries.

Figure 1: Countries with the largest international migrant stock, 2000

Source: United Nations, International migration 2002, United Nations, New York, 2002.

Figure 2: Countries with the highest percentage of international migrant stock, 2000
(countries with population of one million or more inhabitants)

Source: United Nations, International migration 2002, United Nations, New York, 2002.

 Whereas the dominant global flow in the early post-war decades was from Europe to the traditional migration countries it now is from less developed to more developed nations, the so called south-north movement. In all more developed countries in 2000, 40 per cent of net population growth was due to net immigration from less developed countries (LDCs).⁽³⁾ Table 2, for example, indicates the estimated Asian-born population in a number of OECD nations.

Table 2: Traditional migration countries: Asian populations around 2001

	Europe/Japan	Australia	US	Canada	New Zealand	Total
	2000	2001	2001	1996	2001
Afghanistan	29 465	11 296	39 000	11 815	735	92 311
Bangladesh	91 701	9078	104 000	12 405	1185	218 369
Brunei	216	2068	na	4310	na	6594
Burma	187	10 973	22 000	3125	513*	36 798
Cambodia	48 879	22 979	92 000	19 505	4770	188 133
China	480 060	142 780	947 000	238 485	38 949	1 847 274
Hong Kong	10 720	67 124	223 000	249 175	11 301	561 320
India	248 800****	95 452	1 024 000	240 560	20 889	1 629 701
Indonesia	185 300***	47 158	72 000	9340	3792	317 590
Japan	9983	25 469	334 000	24 300	8622	402 374
Korea, Republic of	653 906	38 902	826 000	52 170	17 934	1 588 912
Laos	32 293	9565	117 000	14 905	1017	174780
Macao	84	1948	na	7110	na	9142
Malaysia	35 300****	78 858	39 000	20 930	11 460	185 548
Mongolia	136	126	na	20	na	282
Nepal	335	2628	na	540	na	3 503
Pakistan	932 568**	11 917	241 000	41 085	1317	1 227 887
Philippines	237 761	103 942	1 273 000	190 395	10 137	1 815 235
Singapore	2,574	33485	23 000	8580	3912	71 551
Sri Lanka	167 000	53 460	na	72 355	6168	298 983
Taiwan	1916	22 418	246 000	52 480	12 486	335 300
Thailand	82 100****	23 602	142 000	8085	5154	260 941
Vietnam	180 100****	15 4833	758 000	141 080	3948	1 237 961
Other Asia	na	12458	491 000	55 120	1485	560 036
Total Asia	3 431 384	982 519	7 013 000	1 477 875	165 774	13 070 552

^* 1996

^** 1997

^*** 1998

**** 1999

Source: ABS 2001 Census; US Census Bureau Current Population Survey 2001; New Zealand 2001 Census; Statistics Canada 1996 Census; OECD, Trends in international migration, 1999, 2000, 2001 and 2002.

The increased south-north mobility has taken a distinctive bifurcated form:

(a) barriers have been greatly reduced to the flow of the highly skilled between nations which has facilitated the permanent and temporary movement of skilled and wealthy persons, especially that from south to north countries, and

(b) barriers have been increasingly created against the flows of people who do not have high levels of education or wealth. Hence, while there is a flow of such people in the family and refugee-humanitarian components of migration from south to north countries, the flow is greatly constrained.

An important element in the south-north flow has been the increasing numbers of foreign students. Australia is one of the worlds major destinations of these students and in proportion to its native university students, Australia has the highest ratio of foreign students of any nation.

Figure 3 shows the growth of overseas students in Australian universities over the last two decades. It will be noted that the great majority are from Asian countries.

Figure 3: Overseas students in Australian universities, 19832001

Source: Department of Education, Training and Youth Affairs (DETYA) Selected higher education student statistics, various issues

The expansion of south-north migration has re-ignited debates about brain drain with increased flow of skilled migrants from less developed to more developed economies.⁽⁴⁾ There have been suggestions from commentators that destination countries accepting such migrants compensate origin countries for the costs incurred in educating and bringing up migrants. However, in the last few years, while there has been recognition of the negative effects of brain drain, it has been shown that can have positive developmental implications for origin nations. This results from remittance flows from expatriate communities, economic linkages developed between origin and destination countries and return migration.⁽⁵⁾ The developmental implications of south-north migration are far from simple and are not well understood.

Other important developments in global migration include the increasing flows between non OECD nations. These are not predominantly skilled migrants but involve, particularly, an increased flow of temporary contract workers and refugees are also significant especially in Africa. In addition, there has been an expansion in the level of undocumented migration and of trafficking, especially of women and children. This undocumented migration (as well as the legal movement) is greatly facilitated by the massive growth of the global immigration industry. This involves a complex web of migration agents, travel providers, immigration officials, police, recruiters, and job placement agencies who facilitate international movement. Part of this industry is illegal and in some areas has been penetrated by large criminal syndicates such as the mafia, yazuka (Japan) and Chinese snakeheads. It is now one of the most profitable and pervasive forms of international crime.

A distinctive feature of the new migration is the greatly increased involvement of women in international movement.

The elements driving the new patterns and levels of international migration are complex but some are briefly summarized below:

        the internationalisation of labour markets which has meant that many people now have knowledge of, and compete for, jobs in many countries

        the increasing demographic gradient between nations which has meant many developed economies (which have experienced low fertility over a long period) where local workforces are not growing or declining have labour shortages; while in less developed nations (where workforces are rapidly growing), labour surpluses are large

        widening gaps in economic well-being between less developed and more developed nations

        globalisation of media, which increases peoples information about other places

        universalisation of education in most countries

        reduction of time and travel costs between countries

        activities of transnational organisations especially companies with operations in many nations

        labour market segmentation, which has seen people in higher income countries eschewing low status, low income jobs which open up niches for migrants

        the proliferation of the international migration industry

        the increased involvement of national governments in origin countries realising the benefits that can accrue through migration

        the massive growth of social networks which facilitate the migration of family and friends by providing information about migration and help new migrants once they arrive at destinations.

All this has meant that international migration has become within the calculus of choice of a major part of the worlds population when they consider their life chances. The proliferation of migration networks and the migration industry have meant that international movement is being brought within reach of more and more of the worlds population. In addition to, and partly in response to, these global developments there have been a number of major shifts in Australian immigration policy and the impact has been a veritable sea change in the nature of Australian international migration. Before examining these shifts, it is necessary to make a few comments about the data sources employed.

The shift in Australias international migration regime must be seen in the context of a massive shift in global international population movement levels and patterns and the processes shaping them.⁽⁶⁾ Globalisation has seen an exponential increase in flows of goods, ideas, information, money and people between nations. However, while developed nations like Australia have sought to maximize the first four of these types of flows, most have sought to restrict the in-movement of people, especially those from south nations. Nevertheless, there is considerable evidence that international population movement is inextricably linked to the other flows which constitute globalisation.⁽⁷⁾ Moreover, the full implications of contemporary global political, social and economic change for evolving levels and patterns of international migration are yet to be established.

Some data considerations

One of the outcomes of Australias long history of substantial international migration is that the data sources regarding both stocks and flows of the movement are of high quality by international standards. Firstly, regarding flows, the main source employed here is the Movements Data Base (MDB) maintained by DIMIA. Each person entering or leaving Australia is required to complete arrival or departure cards containing questions on citizenship, birthplace, birth date, gender, occupation, marital status, type of movement, origin/destination, reason (for short-term movers only) and address in Australia. This information forms the basis of the MDB which is one of the few in the world to contain comprehensive information on both immigrants and emigrants. People leaving or coming in to Australia are classified into three types of categories according to their intended length of their stay in Australia or overseas:

        Permanent Movements

      Immigrants are persons arriving with the intention of settling permanently in Australia.

      Emigrants are Australian residents (including former settlers) departing with the stated intention of staying abroad permanently.⁽⁸⁾

        Long-Term Movements

      Overseas arrivals of visitors with the intended or actual length of stay in Australia of 12 months or more.

      Departures of Australian residents with intended or actual length of stay abroad of 12 months or more.

        Short-Term Movements

      Travellers whose intended or actual stay in Australia or abroad is less than 12 months.

Clearly there are some problems associated with the use of intentions as the key element in the definitions of type of movement for the MDB. It is apparent that there are no guarantees that intentions will become reality and as a result there is a significant amount of category jumping which occurs.⁽⁹⁾ Zlotnik has also been critical of the concept of residence used in these definitions as a fertile breeding ground for confusion.⁽¹⁰⁾ Nevertheless the MDB provides useful and comprehensive information on flows of people into and out of Australia which has few equals globally.

Turning to sources of information about the stocks of migrants, the quinquennial national censuses of population and housing are utilised. Table 3 shows the immigration-related questions asked at Australian censuses and indicates that a comprehensive range of questions has been asked, especially in post-war censuses. Of particular interest was the introduction from 1971 of a birthplace of parents question which has been in each subsequent census and the experiment with an ancestry question in 1986 and 2001. The latter has been excluded from several censuses because, although it produced a great deal of new insight into the diversity of Australias population, it generally failed to identify third and older generations of immigrants.⁽¹¹⁾ Censuses have been conducted in Australia each five years since 1961 and have a low rate of under-enumeration (less than 2 per cent). The census allows us to identify the first generation migrants and their Australia-born children and a number of their characteristics with a high degree of accuracy. However, the census does not provide information on former residents who have emigrated out of Australia. With respect to persons travelling out of Australia on a temporary basis, some information is obtainable if those persons left households behind who could report their absence in a question on the census schedule relating to usual residents who are absent on the night of the census. Visitors to Australia who happen to be in the nation on the night of the census are counted in the de facto enumeration but excluded from most data on birthplace.

Table 3: Immigration and ethnicity related topics included in Australian Population Censuses, 19112001

Topics Persons	1911	1921	1933	1947	1954	1961	1966	1971	1976	1981	1986	1991	1996	2001
Birthplace	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Birthplace of parents		*						*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Year of arrival	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*
(Period of residence in Australia)
Citizenship	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*(1)	*(1)	*(2)	*	*	*
Aboriginal/TSI origin	*	*	*	*	*	*	*(3)	*(4)	*(4)	*	*	*	*	*
(Race)
Ethnic origin											*(5)			*
Number of overseas residents or visitors								*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Language use		*(6)	*(7)						*(8)	*(9)	*(10)	*	*	*
Religion	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*

Source: J Paice, The 1990sis the Australian Census of Population and Housing revelant?; ABS, How Australia takes a census.

Notes:

(1) Prior to 1976, nationality rather than citizenship was asked.

(2) Since 1986 the person has been asked whether or not they were an Australian citizen.

(3) In all censuses prior to 1971 respondents were required to state their race and, where race was mixed, to specify the proportion of each.

(4) In the 1971 and 1976 censuses a question with response categories of European, Aboriginal, Torres Strait Islander and other was included.

(5) A question on each persons ancestry was asked for the first time in 1986.

(6) Question asked whether the person could read and write.

(7) Question asked whether the person could read and write a foreign language if unable to read and write English.

(8) The 1976 census asked for all languages regularly used.

(9) In 1981 ability to speak English was asked.

(10) Since 1986 two separate questions have been asked Language used and ability to speak English.

Changes in the origin of settlers to Australia

Table 4 demonstrates that for the bulk of Australias post European settlement history, immigration has been dominated by Europeans, especially people from the United Kingdom and Ireland. In the early post-war years European migration reached its peak both in numerical and proportional terms (Figure 4 and Figure 5).

Table 4: Europe-born persons in Australia, 18612001

Census Year	Per cent Overseas-Born	Europe-Born Population	Europe- Born Percent of all Overseas Born	British-Born Percent of all Europe Born
1861	62.8	671 049	92.8	93.8
1871	46.5	726 323	93.9	93.5
1881	36.8	757 514	91.5	92.0
1891	31.8	901 618	90.3	91.0
1901	32.8	753 832	88.5	90.6
1911	27.1	664 323	88.3	91.6
1921	25.5	744 244	89.1	88.8
1933	23.6	807 358	89.7	83.5
1947	9.8	651 606	87.8	57.7
1954	14.3	1 155 064	90.3	47.5
1961	17.0	1 596 212	90.2	47.5
1966	18.4	1 893 511	88.9	49.6
1971	20.2	2 196 478	85.7	50.0
1976	20.1	2 210 817	81.3	52.4
1981	20.9	2 232 718	75.0	52.4
1986	21.1	2 221 802	68.4	50.9
1991	22.5	2 300 773	62.4	51.1
1996	22.8	2 217 009	56.7	50.9
2001	23.1	2 136 052	52.0	50.9

Source: Price et al., Birthplaces of Australian population 18611981; Australian Censuses, 19012001.

Figure 4: Australia: immigrants from Europe, 19512003

Source: CBCS, Demography Bulletins; DIMIA, Australian immigration: consolidated statistics and Immigration update, various issues; DIMIA, unpublished data; ABS, Migration Australia, various issues.

Note: From 1960, data are for financial years. Prior to this, data are for calendar years.

Figure 5: Immigrants from Europe as a percentage of total immigrants, 19512003

Source: CBCS, Demography Bulletins; DIMIA, Australian immigration: consolidated statistics and Immigration update, various issues; DIMIA, unpublished data; ABS, Migration Australia, various issues.

Note: From 1960, data are for financial years. Prior to this, data are for calendar years.

There was a slowing down in the growth of the Australian European population in 1971 as the pressures to migrate out of many European countries diminished. At the same time the gradual dismantling of the White Australia Policy saw a considerable widening of the countries from which Australia drew settlers. Figure 6 shows how after 1970 the intake has increasingly been drawn from Asia, New Zealand and the Pacific, and to a lesser extent the Americas and Africa.

Figure 6: Australia: settler arrivals by region of last residence, 19472003

* Oct 1945June 1947

Source: DIMIA, Australian immigration: consolidated statistics and Immigration update various issues; DIMIA unpublished data.

The demographic impact of post-war immigration in Australia has been considerable. Rebecca Kippen and Peter McDonald of the Australian National University estimated that between the Second World War and 2000 immigration was responsible for adding 7 million to the population and that if post-war net immigration was zero the national population would be 12 million instead of over 19 million.⁽¹²⁾ However, more important than this numerical impact have been the social, cultural and economic transformations in which immigration has played a role. A major element in this has been the transformation of Australia from an overwhelmingly British dominated population to a multicultural society. Table 5 indicates this, showing that the proportion of the national population born in dominantly English speaking nations declined from 98.1 to 86 per cent between 1947 and 2001, while that born in Asian countries increased from 0.3 to 6.5 per cent. The shift which has occurred is evident in the rates of growth of various foreign-born groups.

Table 5: Change in the composition of the Australian population by place of birth, 1947 and 2001

	1947		2001
	Number of Persons	Per cent	Number of Persons	Per cent
English speaking origin	7 438 892	98.1	15 232 338	86.0
Australia	6 835 171	90.2	13 629 685	76.9
United Kingdom and Ireland	543 829	7.2	1 086 480	6.1
New Zealand	43 619	0.6	355 765	2.0
United States and Canada	10 304	0.1	80 983	0.5
South Africa	5969	0.1	79 425	0.4
Non-English speaking origin	140 466	1.9	2 485 110	14.0
Other Europe	109 586	1.4	1 046 967	5.9
Asia*	23 293	0.3	1 151 438	6.5
Other Africa	1531	0.0	104 811	0.6
Other America	1323	0.0	79 821	0.5
Other Oceania	4733	0.1	99 361	0.6
Total	7 579 358	100.0	17 717 448	100.0

Includes Middle East

Source: ABS, 1947 and 2001 Censuses.

Table 6 shows that the Russian Federation was the only European group among the 10 fastest growing birthplace groups in the nation in the 1990s expanding at 6 per cent per annum. It will be noted that virtually all of the 10 fastest growing countries are south nations, mainly from Asia. On the other hand, the slowest growing (indeed decreasing) birthplace groups were all European.

Table 6: Australia: fastest and slowest growing groups of foreign-born persons, 19912001*

Country of Origin	Number of Persons 2001	Per cent Growth per Annum 19912001
Fastest growing groups:
Iraq	24 832	16.9
Afghanistan	11 297	15.3
Samoa	13 254	8.7
Pakistan	11 917	7.2
Korea, Republic of	38 902	6.4
China	142 781	6.1
Russian Federation	15 020	6.0
Taiwan	22 418	5.6
Thailand	23 599	5.3
South Africa	79 425	4.9
India	95 455	4.5
Slowest growing groups:
Germany	108 220	-0.6
Cyprus	19 482	-1.3
Austria	19 313	-1.3
Malta	46 998	-1.3
Netherlands	83 325	-1.4
Spain	12 662	-1.5
Italy	218 718	-1.5
Portugal	15 441	-1.5
Greece	116 430	-1.6
Poland	58 113	-1.7
Hungary	22 752	-1.8

Countries with 10 000 or more persons in 2001.

Source: ABS, 1991 and 2001 Censuses.

Increased temporary migration

Perhaps the greatest change which has occurred in Australian immigration in the last decade is that whereas in the first five post-war decades Australia emphatically eschewed acceptance of temporary workers in favour of an overwhelming emphasis on settlement migration, there has been a reversal with a number of new visa categories designed to attract temporary residents to for work, business and study purposes.⁽¹³⁾ As a result there has been an exponential increase in non permanent migration to Australia so that while in 20012002 there were 88 900 incoming permanent settlers to Australia there were a total of 340 200 foreigners granted temporary residence in Australia in that year.⁽¹⁴⁾ On 30 June 2001 there were 554 200 people in Australia on a temporary basis of whom 289 300 had the right to work. Although there has been a long history of significant non-permanent flows to Australia the contemporary flow is quite different in scale, in the involvement of large numbers of temporary residents with the right to work and in a plethora of new kinds of temporary migration to Australia.⁽¹⁵⁾ As Boyle⁽¹⁶⁾ points out: It is the high intensity of exchanges and the new modes of contact that makes this an exciting new research arena.

A key point here is that Australian knowledge of immigration remains largely focused on permanent settlement.⁽¹⁷⁾ There has been some consideration of flows of temporary workers such as students, working holiday makers as well as skilled workers.⁽¹⁸⁾ Nevertheless, these studies concentrate mainly on policy issues and there remains little analysis of the characteristics of temporary migrants and how they compare with settlers and the non-migrant population. Further, there is little in the way of an assessment of the effects of this large scale movement on housing and labour markets in Australia or on regional demographic change.

The exponential increase in non-permanent migration has not been confined to Australia. In the United States, for example, there were 4.6 million immigrants admitted between 1995 and 2000 while 142.8 million non-migrants were admitted, of whom 2.2 million were temporary workers, 2.8 million students and 3.6 million others with the right to work.⁽¹⁹⁾ Indeed in the international literature there have been calls for replacing the concept of international migration which implies permanent settlement, with the term transnational migration. As Glick Schiller et al. point out:

several generations of researchers have viewed immigrants as persons who uproot themselves, leave behind home and country, and face the painful process of incorporation into a different society and culture A new concept of transnational migration is emerging, however, that questions this long-held conceptualisation of immigrants, suggesting that in both the US and Europe increasing numbers of migrants are best understood as transmigrants.⁽²⁰⁾

The new concept of transnational migration emphasises the two-way and circular nature of many flows between countries.⁽²¹⁾ However, as in Australia these temporary movements to more developed economies have attracted little research attention compared with permanent settlement. A partial exception is the transfer of highly skilled managerial and professional workers.⁽²²⁾ Nevertheless, careful studies of the nature, causes and impact of temporary movement compared with settlement are lacking especially in Australia. Despite this, policy makers in Australia and other more developed contexts are developing policies to encourage skilled temporary immigration.⁽²³⁾

The shifts in the balance between permanent and temporary immigration of skilled workers to More Developed Countries, together with a more general transformation in the global context of international migration, have greatly reduced the contemporary relevance of much existing research on Australian international migration. This presents a substantial challenge to researchers and policy makers alike.

This transformation can be seen in Table 7 which shows that over the last two decades there has been an increase in non-permanent movement. Firstly, regarding short-term movement, it is clear that there has been an acceleration in both foreigners visiting Australia and Australians going overseas on a short-term basis. Figure 7 shows there has been a consistent increase in the number of overseas visitors until 199798 when the onset of the crisis in Asia saw a downturn in tourists and business travellers from countries such as South Korea and Indonesia which were hit hardest by the crisis. There was also a flattening off in 200102 reflecting the downturn in international travel following the 11th September events and the impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). It will be noted that while the number of overseas visitors to Australia more than quadrupled over the period following 198283, the short-term movement of Australians overseas only increased by 153 per cent. Nevertheless, it is clear that short-term visiting has greatly increased and this represents much more than an expansion of global tourism. It also represents a new global regime in which many people work for considerable periods in more than a single country.

Table 7: Growth of population movement into and out of Australia, 198283 to 200203

		198283	200203	Percent Growth 19822003
Arrivals
Permanent		83 010	93 914	13.1
Long-term	- residents	48 990	95 784	95.5
	- visitors	30 740	184 095	498.9
	- total	79 730	279 879	251.0
Short-term	- residents	1 240 800	3 309 851	166.8
	- visitors	930 400	4 655 802	400.4
	- total	2 171 200	7 965 653	266.9
Departures
Permanent		24 830	50 463	103.2
Long-term	- residents	47 020	86 211	83.3
	- visitors	25 440	82 894	225.8
	- total	72 460	169 105	133.4
Short-term	- residents	1 259 100	3 293 336	161.6
	- visitors	907 500	4 714 636	419.5
	- total	2 166 600	8 007 972	269.6

Source: Bureau of Immigration and Population Research, Immigration update, June Quarter 1992; DIMIA, unpublished data.

Figure 7: Australia: short-term movements, 197071 to 200103

Source: DIMIA, Australian immigration: consolidated statistics and Immigration update, various issues; DIMIA, unpublished data.

However it is not only in short-term movement that there have been substantial changes. As indicated earlier, Australia has long had an emphasis on attracting permanent settlers to the country and a strongly expressed opposition to attracting temporary and contract workers. During the labour shortage years of the 1950s and 1960s, Australias migration solution to the problem contrasted sharply with that of European nations like Germany and France when it opted to concentrate on attracting permanent migrants to meet worker shortages rather than contract workers. However, in recent years attitudes have changed in Australia and it has been recognised that in the context of globalised labour markets it is essential to have mechanisms to allow non-permanent entry of workers in certain groups. Nevertheless, this form of entry has not been extended to unskilled and low-skilled areas and has been only open to people with particular skills and entrepreneurs. Hence there has been an increase in people coming to Australia as short-term or long-term entrants and being able to work here. There has been increasing pressure from some groups to include some unskilled workers to enter the country temporarily to meet labour shortages in some areas. The most notable example of this is in the area of harvest labour, especially in fruit, vegetables and vines where significant seasonal labour shortages have occurred in recent years.⁽²⁴⁾ Nevertheless, the Government has not responded positively to these suggestions.

Figure 8: Australia: long-term arrivals and departures, 195960 to 200203

Source: DIMIA, Australian immigration: consolidated statistics and Immigration update, various issues; DIMIA, unpublished data.

The significance of people coming to work in Australia temporarily is especially evident in the increase in long-term arrivals to Australia shown in Figure 8. This has had an impact, at least in the short-term, on overall net migration gains in Australia. It will be noted from Figure 9 that an increasing proportion of Australias net migration gain in recent years has been from an excess of long-term arrivals over long-term departures and a reducing proportion has been from an excess of settler arrivals over permanent departures. Indeed since 19992000 the net migration gain from long-term movement exceeded that from permanent movement.

Figure 9: Australia: net permanent and long-term movement as a percentage of total net migration gain, 19832003

Source: DIMIA, Immigration Update, various issues and unpublished data.

Figure 10 shows some recent trends in the major forms of temporary migration to Australia. One type of short-term movement of particular significance is the increasing tempo of migration of Asian students.⁽²⁵⁾ Over the 1987 to 2000 period the number of full-fee overseas students in Australia increased from 7131 to 188 277.⁽²⁶⁾ The crisis in Asia had some impact as shown but the numbers of new student visas given off-shore increased by 6 per cent to 67 130 over 199899, by 11 per cent to 74 428 in 19992000, by 15.5 per cent to over 86 000 in 200001, by 13 per cent to 97 560 in 200102 and by 12 per cent to 109 610 in 200203. The major sources are the USA (10 477 visas) and Asian countries such as the Peoples Republic of China (14 215), Korea (7323), Malaysia (8032) and Hong Kong (6576).

Figure 10 also shows that there has been a significant increase in working holiday maker (WHM) temporary migration in recent years. This has been comprehensively reviewed in 1997 by the Australian Parliament Joint Study Committee on Migration.⁽²⁷⁾ WHMs are foreign nationals aged 1830 from selected countries with which Australia has a reciprocal arrangement, who can work under certain conditions for up to 12 months. Their numbers have increased dramatically and reached 85 200 in 200102 and 88 758 in 200203, more than doubling in the 1990s. Kinnaird reports that while the economic impact nationally of WHM migration is limited it has significant impacts in specific industries in specific areas.⁽²⁸⁾ While Europeans dominate this category, there are significant numbers from Japan (9711 in 200203), Korea (5858) and Hong Kong (130).

Figure 10: Temporary migration to Australia by category, 1986 to 2003

Source: DIMIA Population flows: immigration aspects, various issues; A Rizvi, SOPEMI 2004: Australia.

Since 1995 there has been a new visa category in Australia of Temporary Business Migrants. These are five types:

        business visitors who come for short periods and are in the short-term arrival category

        temporary business residents who come for longer periods and are usually in the long-term arrival category

        independent executives who enter Australia for the purpose of establishing or buying into a business and managing that business

        medical practitionersqualified general and specialist medical practitioners where there is a demonstrated need for employing practitioners from overseas

        educationalthis visa is for qualified people to join educational and research organisations to fill academic teaching and research positions that cannot be filled from within the Australian labour market.

Figure 10 indicates there has been a fall in this category since a peak in 199697 and a slight decrease after 200102 primarily due to the impact of SARS.⁽²⁹⁾ Among the Business visitors, the USA accounts for 17.4 per cent and the United Kingdom 8.7 per cent and the main Asian groups are from China (19.4 per cent), Japan (6.3 per cent), India (4.8 per cent) and Indonesia (3.5 per cent). The Temporary Business Entry (Long Stay) subclass 457 visa enables highly qualified/skilled persons to enter Australia for up to four years to take up pre-nominated positions with approved Australian sponsor-employers, mostly in professional or management positions.⁽³⁰⁾ The number of visas granted fell by 8.7 per cent from 36 902 in 200001 to 33 705 in 200102 but increased by 12.2 per cent to 37 859 in 200203. Rizvi attributes the fall to the 30.8 per cent drop in the number of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) professionals applying from offshore and the downturn in the Australian ICT industry in 200102.⁽³¹⁾ This was offset by some increase in nomination from other groups. For example, nurses increased by 144 per cent from 1049 to 2563. Rizvi attributes the increase in the last year to the:

strong demand for skilled workers in the health industry with growth in the number of visas granted to registered nurses experiencing a 54 per cent increase in visa grants in 200203 over 200102 (1,901 visas in 200203 compared to 1,228 visa grants in 200102). Registered nurses are the largest single occupation sought by Australian employers. The Information, Communication and Technology (ICT) industry is the largest represented occupational group with 19.3 per cent of the top 50 occupations nominated by Australian employers seeking skilled overseas workers on a temporary basis.⁽³²⁾

Rizvi explains that at 30 June 2003, there were 56 344 subclass 457 visa holders in Australia, an increase of 2.4 per cent on the 30 June 2002 figure of 55 001.⁽³³⁾ Table 8 shows that Asians are not as predominant in this visa category as among some others, although four of the nine largest nations of origin are Asian (India, Japan, Korea and China).

Table 8: Temporary business entry visa grants 200102 and 200203

Country	200102	200203	% Growth
United Kingdom	9662	11 677	20.8
India	3078	3670	19.2
USA	2642	2846	7.7
Japan	2441	2278	-6.7
South Africa, Republic of	1892	2210	16.8
Irish Republic	1628	1648	1.2
Korea, Republic of	1608	1259	-21.8
PRC	1117	1165	4.3
Canada	1052	1138	8.1
Other countries	8653	9968	15.5

Source: ARizvi, SOPEMI 2004: Australia, p. 7.

As a result of the changed patterns of non permanent migration the number of temporary residents in Australia at any one time make up a significant proportion of the population.

Table 9: Temporary entrants to Australia

	Flow 20002001	Flow 200102	Flow 200203	Stock as at 30 June 2001	Stock as at 30 June 2002
Visitors	3 279 549	3 074 384	3 050 492	201 700	184 942
Overseas students	86 277	97 650	109 610	138 200	154 017
Working holiday makers	76 576	85 207	88 758	46 600	48 203
Temporary business visitors	260 957	258 020	254 180	12 600	12 462
Temporary business residents	40 493	33 705	37 859	56 000	55 001
Bridging visa holders(1)	-	-	-	63 200	61 431
Social, cultural, international relations program	37 912	35 167	34 252	25 700	26 849
Other	65 476	64 296	na	11 200	17 273
Total	3 847 240	3 648 429	na	554 200	560 178

(1) Bridging visas provide lawful status to non-citizens who would otherwise be unlawful.

Source: DIMIA, Population flows: immigration aspects, 2002; A Rizvi, SOPEMI 2004: Australia; DIMIA, Immigration, population and citizenship digest, 2003.

Table 9 presents official (DIMIA) estimates of the number of persons temporarily in Australia in mid-2001 and 2002. This indicates that there were over 200 000 people in Australia temporarily with work rights and a similar number without work rights. This represents a substantial number of people equivalent to 23 per cent of the permanently resident workforce. DIMIA estimates that at 30 June 2001 there were 554 200 persons in Australia on temporary visas 202 500 had been in Australia for less than three months, 193 800 between three and twelve months and 157 800 longer.⁽³⁴⁾ The largest group of the 554 200 were from the UK (93 400), followed by the USA (42 100), China (36 700), Japan (33 200) and Korea (33 100).

The increased flow of non permanent migrants has created problems for the ABS in calculating Australias annual levels of net migration. Since the mid-1980s the ABS has estimated net migration as the balance between permanent and long-term immigration and permanent and long-term . However, a problem in the approach arose through category jumping by people who changed their stated length of residence in, or absence from, Australia. The ABS overcame this through indirect estimates of this category jumping. A review of this in 1999 identified a number of problems in the methodology and the ABS announced in 2003, that given the increasing problems of estimating category jumping using this method, it would not estimate it until a new method could be devised.⁽³⁵⁾ McDonald, Khoo and Kippen showed that the failure to take into account category jumping is leading to a systematic over-estimation of net international migration. This is largely because the increasingly large number of long-term temporary migrants to Australia often leave the country on a short-term basis while in Australia (e.g. students returning home during vacations, temporary business migrants on business and holiday trips, etc.).⁽³⁶⁾ These people tend to identify as a long-term entrant on each arrival and as a short-term departure each time they leave on such a trip. This is leading to an over estimation of long-term arrivals. McDonald, Khoo and Kippen have proposed one new approach to estimating category jumping but it is understood the ABS is likely to adopt an alternative approach.⁽³⁷⁾

As a result, there is a degree of uncertainty about current estimates of net migration in Australia. Nevertheless a key dimension of recent net migration gains, however, is that in recent years an increasing proportion of that gain has been derived from an excess of long-term (as opposed to permanent) arrivals over long-term departures such that by 19992000 they accounted for over half of the net gains. This is evident in Table 10, which shows that net migration gains by permanent movement were much larger than net gains by long-term movement until the mid-1990s. With the introduction of new temporary business movement categories, not only did the numerical net gains of long-term movers increase but their size relative to net permanent gains also increased until 2000 when for the first time it was larger. In the subsequent years the gap has increased such that in 2002 long-term net gains were twice as large as net permanent gains. This represents a significant departure in Australian immigration and raises a number of issues including the following:

        to what extent is the excess of long-term arrivals over long-term departures for the reasons discussed above? What is clear, however, is that even allowing for these problems, there is still an excess of long-term arrivals over long-term departures and this raises a number of important questions.

        to what extent is the long-term net gain a temporary phenomenon, which will eventually disappear? If all workers arriving under visa categories like temporary business, working holiday, student, etc. eventually leave Australia, one would expect the losses to eventually be more or less equal to the gains.

Table 10: Components of net overseas migration (000), 19832003

Year Ended 30 June	Permanent Movement			Long-Term Movement			Category Jumpersa	NOM	Permb	L-tb
	Arrivals	Departures	Net	Arrivals	Departures	Net
1983	93.0	24.8	68.2	79.7	72.5	7.3	-2.2	73.3	90.4%	9.6%
1984	68.8	24.3	44.5	76.5	74.4	2.0	2.6	49.1	95.6%	4.4%
1985	77.5	20.4	57.1	85.7	74.9	10.9	5.7	73.7	84.0%	16.0%
1986	92.6	18.1	74.5	93.8	74.4	19.4	6.4	100.4	79.3%	20.7%
1987	113.5	19.9	93.6	90.9	75.4	15.5	16.6	125.7	85.8%	14.2%
1988	143.5	20.5	123.0	98.8	78.6	20.2	6.1	149.4	85.9%	14.1%
1989	145.3	21.6	123.7	104.6	91.0	13.6	20.2	157.4	90.1%	9.9%
1990	121.2	27.9	93.4	110.7	100.2	10.5	20.8	124.6	89.9%	10.1%
1991	121.7	31.1	90.6	114.7	110.5	4.2	-8.3	86.4	95.6%	4.4%
1992	107.4	29.1	78.3	126.8	115.2	11.6	-21.3	68.6	87.1%	12.9%
1993