East Asia Issues

Korean peninsula

In October 2002, the United States alleged that North Korea had admitted to a Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) program in contravention of the 1994 Agreed Framework that provided for North Korean denuclearisation in return for energy and financial aid. This set in motion a series of events that, in a short timeframe, resulted in a substantial deterioration in the security environment, including North Korea’s withdrawal from the Nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the recommencement of frozen nuclear programs.

Six-Party Talks, involving North Korea, the United States, Russia, Japan, South Korea and China began in August 2003, but made only limited progress. On 3 October 2006, North Korea announced its intention to conduct a nuclear test, and carried out its first nuclear test six days later.

The Six-Party Talks recommenced on 18 December 2006. On 13 February 2007, an agreement was reached that required North Korea to account for, disable and eventually dismantle its nuclear programs in return for financial, energy and other aid, as well as steps to reintegrate it into the international community. Despite initial problems regarding the release of North Korean funds frozen in a Macau bank, progress on implementing the 13 February Agreement has continued. Disablement, which makes it both difficult and expensive to restart nuclear facilities, began in November 2007.

December 2007 is a critical juncture in the implementation of the 13 February Agreement. The United States understands the agreement to require a complete and accountable declaration on North Korean fissile material in preparation for its removal, as well as accounting for the alleged HEU program. If undertaken, these two steps would demonstrate a political and strategic decision by North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons program.

The nuclear issue has, in many ways, distracted international attention from arguably more pressing issues in North Korea. These include ongoing human rights abuses, a lack of meaningful economic reform, and a failure to prepare for political succession.

Changing Japan

Japan is currently undergoing a period of substantial domestic political change. Support for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has been in office for all but two years since its formation in 1955, has fallen significantly. In September 2006, the highly popular Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi was succeeded by Shinzo Abe. In July 2007, the LDP lost its majority in the upper house of the Diet and after just one year in office, Abe resigned on 12 September 2007, to be replaced by Yasuo Fukuda.

The fall in public support for the LDP has been accompanied by a rise in support for the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), which after the July 2007 elections gained control of the upper house. The DPJ, led by Ichiro Ozawa, a former Chief Secretary of the LDP, has sought to block key legislation in order to force the ruling LDP to call a general election.

The dynamic domestic situation has already affected Japan’s international relationships. The DPJ has opposed a Bill to extend the Anti-Terrorism Special Measures Law, which enables the Japanese Self-Defence Forces to provide logistical support for the United Nations chartered international mission in Afghanistan. Japanese logistical support, predominantly in the form of refuelling operations in the Indian Ocean, was suspended on 1 November 2007. The current sitting period of the Diet has been extended until 15 December 2007 to debate the Bill. A plenary session of the lower house passed the Bill on 13 November 2007. If the upper house does not pass it, the Bill can be passed into law by a second vote with a two-thirds majority in the lower house. However, forcing the Bill into law in this way could be viewed as a failure in Fukuda’s ability as a consensus builder, upon which his reputation and public support is based.

Japan’s dynamic domestic political situation also has the potential to affect its bilateral relations with Australia in terms of both trade and security:

• Negotiations for a bilateral Free Trade Agreement (FTA) began in April 2007. As part of the FTA, Australia will seek relaxation of Japan’s high agricultural tariffs. Certain factions within the LDP traditionally have been strong supporters of high agricultural tariffs. Consequently, the DPJ may view opposition to an FTA with Australia as a convenient wedge issue to draw support away from the LDP.

• In March 2007, Australia and Japan signed the Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation, and in June 2007 held the first Australia–Japan Joint Foreign and Defence Ministerial Consultations. Closer bilateral security cooperation between Japan and Australia is in part a manifestation of trends in Japan towards diplomatic normalisation—removing ‘pacifist’ restrictions on diplomatic behaviour that were imposed after Japan’s defeat in the Second World War and seeking political influence commensurate to its position as the world’s second largest economy. Diplomatic normalisation, in particular the security related aspects, are especially controversial in Japan’s domestic politics.

The success of Australia’s bilateral relationship with Japan is built on a strong base of natural economic complementarity and shared political values. Closer bilateral cooperation in the economic and security fields could be viewed as a natural progression. However, closer bilateral cooperation and Japan’s dynamic domestic political situation could present challenges to the relationship that have largely been absent during 50 years of LDP rule.

Documentation
Mark Beeson and Hidetaka Yoshimatsu, ‘Asia’s odd men out: Australia, Japan and the politics of regionalism’, International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, vol. 7, no. 2, 2007, pp. 227–50.