The United States and East Asia

Successive Australian governments have welcomed both the United States’s trade and investment in the Asia–Pacific region and its crucial role in underpinning regional security, through its bilateral alliances and involvement in multilateral dialogues. In the lead-up to the 2008 presidential and congressional elections, the US faces some significant issues in its relations with China, Japan and Southeast Asia.

With China, high-level dialogues (including recent talks between Presidents George W. Bush and Hu Jintao during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meetings in Sydney in September 2007) have advanced many areas of cooperation. These include efforts to resolve the dangers posed by North Korea’s nuclear weapons programs (see accompanying brief). The visit to China in November by US Secretary for Defense Robert Gates enhanced security discussions. A ‘hotline’ will be established to facilitate communication in the event of a crisis, but the US continues to be concerned about China’s military development programs and has called for more policy ‘transparency’. Economic relations are vital to both sides, but China’s large trade surplus (US$233 billion in 2006) is contentious in the US. Some in Congress advocate pressure on China to ease restrictions on the value of its currency (seen as unfairly advantaging China’s export competitiveness) or face possible sanctions. The Bush Administration seeks more flexible Chinese currency and market access policies, but opposes unilateral US action to pressure China in this way. The maintenance of stable US–China economic relations is a key challenge for the Administration as the 2008 elections approach, and is of major interest to Australia.

The status of Taiwan continues to be a sensitive issue for Taiwan, and for China and the US. China has consistently affirmed sovereignty over Taiwan and reunification is its ultimate goal. The US maintains a ‘one China’ policy and opposes any unilateral move by Taiwan towards independence, while also rejecting any Chinese attempt at coercive reunification. Cross-Strait sensitivities have recently heightened over President Chen Shui-bian’s proposal to hold a referendum at the time of the next presidential elections (22 March 2008). The referendum would propose that the territory should seek admission to the United Nations under the name ‘Taiwan’. Such an application would be unlikely to succeed (given China’s UN veto right), but is seen by China as challenging its sovereignty claim. In August 2007, US Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte characterised the referendum as a step towards a declaration of independence. In September, Chinese President Hu Jintao was reported as warning in relation to Taiwan that the next two years would be ‘highly dangerous’. Further tensions are possible as the issue is debated in the lead-up to Taiwan’s legislative elections (12 January 2008) and presidential elections. Australia has vital security and economic interests in a continuation of restraint, dialogue and avoidance of conflict in the Taiwan Strait.

US relations with Japan have deepened under the Bush Administration. Security ties were enhanced, and Japan provided non-combat support to the US involvements in Iraq and Afghanistan. The new government led by Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda (from September 2007) reaffirmed the primacy of the alliance in Japan’s foreign policy, but has faced a stronger Opposition since elections in July in which the ruling Liberal Democratic Party lost its majority in the upper house. When legislation authorising the deployment of Japanese maritime forces in the Indian Ocean to provide refuelling services to the naval vessels (mostly US) supporting the United Nations-endorsed operations in Afghanistan expired on 1 November 2007, Japan’s forces were recalled. The government has not yet secured parliamentary approval to renew the deployment; a renewal supported strongly by the US. The Fukuda Government also faces the challenge of negotiating a renewal of arrangements under which Japan provides substantial financial support for the presence of US forces in Japan. Resolution of these issues will be important for the progress of the alliance in 2008.

In Southeast Asia, the US has wide-ranging economic, political and security interests. Counter-terrorism has been prominent in cooperation since 2001. The US has been highly concerned at the repression in Myanmar (Burma) in late 2007, announced increased sanctions targeted at the senior members of the regime, and encouraged Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members and China to restrict financial relations with Myanmar. The year 2007 also marked the 40^th anniversary of the US’s multilateral relations with ASEAN. The US has a program to enhance cooperation with ASEAN, but relations were clouded in 2007 when US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was unable to attend the annual ASEAN ministerial meetings in July, and Bush postponed a meeting with ASEAN heads of government planned for September in Singapore. Following that postponement, Bush had proposed that an ASEAN-US leaders meeting should be held in the US in early 2008. However, given ongoing concerns in the US in late 2007 about the situation in Myanmar, it is not clear whether the meeting will eventuate.

The US has continued its interest in multilateral cooperation, particularly through APEC, which in its Sydney meetings in September endorsed cooperation in areas including trade and investment facilitation, and climate change. Australia has deep security and economic interests in East Asia (which received 58 per cent of Australia’s merchandise exports in 2006–07) and will continue to have a major stake in the character of the US’s bilateral relations and multilateral engagements in the region.

Documentation
Kerry Dumbaugh, ‘China-U.S Relations: current issues and implications for U.S. policy’, CRS Report for Congress, Washington DC, Congressional Research Service, 1 October 2007.
Emma Chanlett-Avery, Mark Manyin and William Cooper, ‘Japan-US relations: issues for Congress’, CRS Report for Congress, Washington DC, Congressional Research Service, 27 September 2007.
Richard Rosecrance, ‘Australia, China and the US’, Australian Journal of International Affairs, vol. 60, no. 3, September 2006, pp. 364–68.