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Middle East—Iraq, Iran and the Israeli-Palestinian ConflictThe Middle East is an unstable region that has long-running complex and interlocking issues exacerbated by powerful external players. With few exceptions, the countries are dominated by rulers relying on tribal loyalties and the use of force against opponents. Despite some modest political reform, such as limited elections in the Gulf States, most states remain essentially authoritarian. In addition to internal instability and violence, such as in Lebanon and Iraq, many of the contested issues on governance, regional autonomy, foreign occupation and the role of extremist Muslim Jihadists are linked to external forces supported by neighbouring countries. If these conflicts are not contained or resolved, they could trigger further region-wide instability, and affect international security and the world economy. The United States, with its key strategic
and economic interests, has been the
IraqIt is now clear that the 2003 US-led invasion to overthrow the repressive regime of President Saddam Hussein was based on incorrect intelligence and assumptions. The forces deployed were unable to establish law and order, which was further compounded by decisions such as banning members of the ruling Baathist Party from key posts in the bureaucracy, the choice of electoral system, and disbanding the regular army. These problems have unleashed long-standing internal resentments and aspirations between the former ruling minority, Sunni Muslims, and the majority, Shia Muslims. The invasion attracted foreign Islamic Jihadists (which had been non-existent in Saddam’s Iraq) as well as Shia militias (tacitly supported by Iran) to fight against Coalition forces. The Shia militias are divided between followers of Grand Ayatollah Sistani, who believes in the theology of ‘Quietism’ (in which clerics, while important, do not rule), and those supporting the Iranian Velayat-I Faqih (Supreme Jurisprudent) system of government. The largely autonomous Kurds, with their Peshmerga Army, are seeking to reclaim the northern city of Kirkuk via a November referendum, against the wishes of other minorities in the city. Voting in the January 2005 elections followed sectarian lines, with the Shia parties, though divided, dominating the government. There are competing visions for the new Iraqi state, ranging from a high degree of centralisation to a federation that has regional autonomy (favoured by the Kurds). There is also disagreement over the distribution of oil revenues. The recent ‘surge’ in US forces, combined with declining support from Sunni tribal leaders for the extremist al-Qaeda Jihadists, has opened an opportunity for the beleaguered government to resolve the hard political, security, social and economic issues confronting the country. IranIran’s nuclear program began in the 1960s under the Shah and was supported by the US, Germany and France. After the Islamic Revolution of 1979, Grand Ayatollah Khomeini stopped the program on religious grounds. For strategic reasons it was restarted during the1980–88 Iran–Iraq War. Iran claims that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes and within its rights under its nuclear treaty obligations. This is contested by many powers, led by the US, not only because an accelerated Iranian uranium enrichment program could be used to produce weapons, but also because they remain concerned about the views held by President Ahmadinejad. In this context, the US has refused to rule out the use of force. However, the decisions of the Iranian president are subject to the decision of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the dynamics of internal Iranian politics. The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is considering a third resolution to sanction Iran, based on the November 2007 International Atomic Energy Agency report. The report states that while Iran is cooperative, it is also reluctant to be totally transparent. Russia and China, which both have oil interests and investments in Iran and are members of the UNSC, are reluctant to support further sanctions. Iran’s strategic environment is the key to understanding its nuclear weapons program and, until its legitimate strategic interests are addressed, Iran is unlikely to abandon its program. Israeli-Palestinian conflictThe outlines for a peaceful resolution to the conflict have been clear since the 2000 US Camp David talks. These include: two mutually recognised and viable states; agreements, involving an exchange of land on final borders; compromise on the Palestinian ‘right of return’; and some division of Jerusalem so that each state could claim it as their capital. Achieving such a settlement has foundered on mutual distrust, a lack of political will, unwillingness to honour commitments, and strong opposition by vocal/militant minorities on both sides. The November 2007 US Summit will discuss the agenda for future negotiations with a final agreement to be reached before President George W. Bush leaves office in early 2009. The Summit comes at a time when both the Israeli and Palestinian leaders are politically vulnerable. Following Israel’s failure to destroy Hezbollah in southern Lebanon in July 2006, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmet has very low public support and faces corruption investigations. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has lost control of Gaza to HAMAS and depends largely on the goodwill of the US, Israel and some Arab countries for his political survival. Given the absence of the strong leadership that led to past agreements, it is unlikely that much new will be achieved. Documentation |