The election (information as at 3 December 2007)
The 2007 election resulted in the comprehensive
defeat of the Howard Coalition Government and a significant
victory for the Australian Labor Party (ALP) under Kevin Rudd.
The ALP enjoyed a national two-party preferred swing of over
5.6 per cent, built on positive two-party preferred swings
in every state and territory. The ALP gained at least 20 seats,
while the Coalition lost at least 25 seats. The ALP’s two-party
preferred vote was close to 53 per cent, while the Coalition’s
vote was just over 47 per cent.
One of the most interesting developments
was the loss of former Prime Minister John Howard’s seat of
Bennelong to the ALP. It is only the second time in Australian
history (after Stanley Bruce in 1929) that an incumbent prime
minister has lost his seat. Other significant outcomes include:
- The ALP two-party preferred vote was close to its postwar
high of 53.2 per cent in 1983. The primary ALP vote of
43.7 per cent was the highest since 1993. The ALP’s House
of Representatives tally of 80 seats is one of its highest
in the postwar period.
- The Liberal Party’s primary vote of slightly over 36 per
cent was well down on 2004 (40.5 per cent), but was only
slightly lower than the primary vote in 2001 (37 per
cent). The party’s House of Representatives tally of 49 seats
matches its 1993 total and is the lowest since that year.
- The Nationals’ House of Representatives tally of ten seats
gives the party its equal lowest level of representation in
the House ever (a ten seat result was also recorded in 1929).
The composition of the Senate will change
after June 2008, given the loss of all four Australian Democrat
positions, the election of an independent senator for South
Australia, and a possible increase in Australian Greens’ numbers
to five senators. It is likely that the new Opposition will
lose the control of the Senate that it enjoyed while in government
during the 41st Parliament.
The election also resulted in significant
developments with regard to the minor parties:
- The Australian Democrats will cease to exist in the federal
Parliament after June 2008. The party’s Senate primary vote
of slightly over 1 per cent was the worst in its electoral
history. Its primary vote in South Australia, once the party’s
stronghold, was less than 1 per cent.
- Despite the likely loss of their New South Wales senator,
the Australian Greens increased their Senate primary vote
to 9 per cent (from 7.7 per cent in 2004), and may
achieve a net gain in Senate numbers with the possible election
of two new senators for South Australia and Western Australia.
The Greens’ national House of Representatives primary vote
increased slightly from 2004, and House of Representatives
primary vote shares of 13.2 per cent and 13 per cent
were gained in Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory
respectively.
The Rudd Government's position
The election gives the incoming ALP Government
a very strong claim to a mandate for implementing its reform
agenda. The Rudd Government will face an Opposition majority
in the Senate until July 2008, and may find itself needing to
negotiate with those holding the balance of power in the Senate
after that date. The ALP has also raised the possibility of
a double-dissolution election in the event that the Senate does
not pass its industrial relations reforms.
Priorities for the Government
The ALP comes to government with a significant
reform agenda articulated throughout the election campaign.
Key priorities include:
- industrial relations—for example, the repeal of WorkChoices
and the abolition of Australian Workplace Agreements
- climate change—the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol and
the introduction of measures such as a National Emissions
Trading Scheme
- defence—the phased withdrawal of combat troops from Iraq
- housing affordability—the establishment of a National Housing
Affordability Fund and implementation of tax incentives for
investment in low-income and middle-income rental properties
- education—entitlements for early learning contact hours,
a national curriculum, the establishment of trade training
centres in secondary schools, and the reduction of university
fees for certain courses
- health—the establishment of a National Health and Hospital
Reform Commission to address duplication in the national health
system and the augmentation of general practice clinic services.
The Opposition
The Opposition now enters a period of significant
self-assessment and rebuilding. Former Treasurer Peter Costello’s
surprise announcement the day after the election that he would
not seek or accept the Opposition leadership created short-term
turmoil for the Liberal Party until it selected Brendan Nelson
as leader. Generational change within the ranks may well be
a factor for the Opposition into the future.
Library documents
Gerard Newman, ‘Federal Election
Results 1949–2004’, Research Brief, no. 7, March
2005.
Documentation
Australian Electoral Commission, ‘Virtual Tally Room:
The Official 2007 Federal Election Results’, http://vtr.aec.gov.au/Default.htm,
accessed 28 November 2007.
Kevin Rudd MP, ‘New Leadership’, speech
at the Dame Joan Sutherland Performing Arts Centre, 15 September
2007.
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