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| The regional environment for terrorism |
| Al Qaeda in South East Asia |
| Countering Terrorism |
The Bali bombings on 12 October 2002 have directed attention to the issues that Southeast Asia is a region conducive to the activities of both indigenous and international terrorist groups, and that elements of the two have been closely interlinked. The bombings have also emphasised that at a time when extensive attention is being directed towards the problem of Iraq, the war on terror pursued since September 11 2001 is far from won. This E-Brief discusses factors facilitating terrorist groups in Southeast Asia, the activities of Al Qaeda in Southeast Asia, and outlines key groups involved.
Southeast Asia has frequently had episodes of political violence which have either been explicitly or closely linked to terrorism. These have included activities by Communist groups (for example in Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines) and activities directed against ruling Communist regimes (such as the bomb attacks in Laos in 2000-2001). Terrorism has also at times been state-sponsored or condoned, as in the case of Christian anti-separatist groups in the southern Philippines (opposing Muslim secessionists) and militias in East Timor, Papua and other parts of Indonesia.
However, developments since the Afghanistan war in the 1980s (in which US-supported mujahidin guerillas fought the Soviet occupation forces) have fostered and introduced new elements into terrorism in the region. Several factors have been important:
It is increasingly evident that Southeast Asia has become an important arena for international terrorism, notably Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda is a highly decentralised and elusive transnational terrorist network that is difficult to identify and combat. The International Institute of Strategic Studies has argued that while Al Qaeda has been damaged by coalition operations since September 11 in Afghanistan and elsewhere, the organisation may well retain two thirds of its core leadership and the great majority of the approximately 20,000 activists who were trained in its Afghan camps after 1996.
The British based terrorism specialist Rohan Gunaratna estimated in early 2002 that about one fifth of Al Qaedas organisational strength was in Asia overall. Gunaratna argues that:
In Southeast Asia, Al Qaedas activities appear to have been concentrated in the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia. Al Qaeda established contacts in Southeast Asia from 1988 and established a logistics base in the Philippines in the early 1990s. This base included use of Islamic charities and specially established businesses to channel funds. While many of its activities remain to be revealed, it has been alleged that Al Qaeda developed ambitious plans to conduct a series of bombings of airlines in the region, as several cases have illustrated.:
Arrests in Singapore and later Malaysia and the Philippines since late 2001 suggest that Jemaah Islamiah (JI) has had an extensive capacity to organise a large and possibly still largely unknown network of sleeper cells, both logistical and operational (as an official Singapore statement on these issues from September 2002 has argued). Jemaah Islamiah appears to operate in loose association with several other groups including the Moro Islamic Liberation Frost (MILF) and, according to Rohan Gunaratna, together they have been part of a regional terrorist network operating under the aegis of Al Qaeda. JI is conceivably Al Qaedas instrument connecting mainstream and renegade terrorists and guerrilla elements in the region. (Gunaratna p 193).
Terrorist groups have been reported to be active in at least four countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines. Several groups have been accused of having links with Al-Qaeda and several have links with other movements in the region.
Jemaah Islamiah (JI) was founded in the mid-1990s and has the grand aim of establishing an independent Islamic state encompassing Indonesia, Malaysia and the southern islands of the Philippines. Intelligence officials (notably from Singapore) have investigated the group since it came to wide attention in January 2002. JI has also been implicated in a number of bombings including those in Manila in December 2000. JI is alleged to be led by a radical Indonesian cleric, Abu Bakar Bashir, who runs a Muslim boarding school in Solo, central Java (Bashir, also sometimes described as the movements spiritual leader, has denied in recent interviews a connection with JI). The plot to stage bombings in Singapore was allegedly organised by a deputy to Bashir, Riduan Isamuddin, also known as Hambali (whose current location is unknown). JI is thought to be associated with other groups including the Kumpulan Mujahideen Malaysia (KMM). Singapore has alleged that JI received some funding from Al Qaeda over three years. Singapore officials have also claimed that Hambali has been seeking to coordinate the activities of JI with Muslim radicals in Thailand and separatists in the southern Philippines, especially the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) into an alliance called Rabatitul Mujaihidin.
Laskar Jihad (LJ) was established as the paramilitary wing of Forum Komunikasi Ahlus Sunnah wal Jammah (Communications Forum of the Followers of the Sunnah), established in Jogjakarta in early 1998. The LJ was formed on 30 January 2000 in response to religious violence in Maluku. The LJ arranged for military training to be given to volunteers at a camp in Bogor, near Jakarta. The LJ sent several thousand fighters to Maluku in the months after April 2000. The Brussels based non-governmental organisation the International Crisis Group has stated that The conclusion is unavoidable that the LJ received the backing of elements in the military and the police. It was obviously military officers who provided them with military training and neither the military nor the police made any serious effort to carry out the Presidents order preventing them from going to Maluku. LJ claims a three part mission social work, Muslim education and a security mission and it has had over 10,000 members, some of whom have been active in eastern Indonesia in communal violence. Laskar Jihad has gained support from Indonesias armed forces (TNI) and has also been able to embezzle money from the military (over $US 9 million). Its founder claims to have rejected approaches from Al-Qaeda but supported the September 11 attacks in the US. In mid October, Laskar Jihad announced that it had been disbanded but the veracity of this claim has yet to be determined decisively.
The Front Pembela Islam (Islamic Defenders FrontFPI) is another Indonesian radical Islamic group. The FPI was formed in August 1998 and now claims branches in 22 provinces. Based in Jakarta, the FPI is led by Habib Muhammad Riziek Syihab, a religious teacher who was educated in Saudi Arabia. Like Habib, many of the top FPI leaders have Arab blood. The FPIs stated goal is the full implementation of Islamic Sharia law, although it supports Indonesias present constitution and avoids calling for an Islamic state. The FPI has a paramilitary wing called Laskar Pembela Islam and is well know for organising raids on bars, massage parlours and gaming halls. The FPI justifies these raids on the grounds that the police are unable to uphold laws on gambling and prostitution. Sceptical observers suspect that the police turn a blind eye to, or are complicit in, these activities, knowing that the victims will be encouraged to maintain protection monies to the police. The FPI in late 2001 took the lead in threatening to sweep Americans out of Indonesia because of the US operations in Afghanistan, although the threat was not in fact carried out.
Abu Sayyaf (Bearer of the Sword) is an outgrowth of the long-term struggle for autonomy in the southern Philippines, is opposed to any accommodation with the Christians and believes that violent action is the only solution. Abu Sayyaf has mounted terror and criminal attacks since 1991 and directed a wave of such attacks against Christian civilians in 1993. Its founder Abdurajak Janjalani was a veteran of the Afghanistan conflict who had brought back with him enthusiastic followers of radical Islamic ideology. It has strong Al-Qaeda links Osama bin Laden is reported to have sent the Pakistani terrorist Ramzi Yousef (who attacked the World Trade Center in 1993) for training with Abu Sayyaf and Al Qaeda has given financial assistance. Abu Sayyaf has also gained extensive revenue from kidnapping including a $25 million payment from Libya to free hostages in March 2000. The group has recently suffered from serious internal divisions and its factions whose interests appear to be primarily criminal - are now thought to have possibly about 500 members.
The Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) has disclaimed connections with Al-Qaeda but hundreds of its members are reported to have trained with Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. MILF split from the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) which had led a struggle for autonomy for Muslim areas of the southern Philippines from 1972. The MNLF suffered a series of setbacks in the 1990s, with a number of leaders either defecting to the government or joining MILF. MILF is led by Hashim Salamat who was educated at Cairos Al-Azhar University. MILFs eventual aim is an independent Moro Muslim state and by the 1990s it had become the primary Moro rebel movement. The movement has been able to gain funds from sympathetic Islamic organisation abroad, including in Malaysia, Pakistan and the Middle East. It has had up to 35,000 members and has trained members of other groups, including JI. Major problems confront the goal of an Islamic Moro state, not least the fact that long-term immigration into the southern Philippines means that non-Muslims outnumber Muslims in most provinces of Mindanao.
The New Peoples Army (NPA) was declared to be a terrorist organisation by the US government in August 2002 but it is a different kind of group from those discussed above. The NPA is the military wing of the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) and is a further Philippines radical group. Although primarily a rural based group, the NPA has an active urban infrastructure to conduct terrorism and uses city based assassination squads. The NPA derives most of its funds from contributions by supporters in the Philippines, Europe and elsewhere and from revolutionary taxes levied on businesses. The NPA opposes any US miliary presence and reports in 2001 suggest that it seeks to target US personnel its strength is estimated at over 10,000.
The level and character of the threat posed by terrorist groups in Southeast Asia is difficult to estimate precisely. It is not fully clear, for example, whether Al Qaeda has tight linkages with regional networks (like Jemaah Islamiah) or whether the regionally-based groups operate with more limited liaison or advice from Al Qaeda. It is clear, however, that there has been significant terrorist activities in the past decade, that Al Qaeda has been involved in some of these, and that a major threat continues, as the Bali bombings have tragically illustrated.
Since the attacks in the United States on 11 September 2001, efforts have increased to coordinate regional and international action against terrorism in Southeast Asia. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) announced increased cooperation at its annual ministerial meetings in July-August 2002. During these meetings, the United States also signed an anti-terrorism agreement with ASEAN members on 30 July.
As well as supporting international anti-terrorism efforts generally, Australia has signed Memorandums of Understanding with several Southeast Asian countries. The most recent agreement with Thailand builds on the existing strong links between Australian and Thai law enforcement, defence and security agencies. Under the MOU, Australian and Thai agencies will exchange information and intelligence on international terrorist activities and related transnational organised crime. Agencies will also focus on combating the financing of terrorism and countering money laundering.
Terrorism in Southeast Asia is being pursued in an environment in which locally-derived issues factors have contributed to the basis of support for the groups involved. Increased efforts are needed to pursue law-enforcement measures in regional states a task which is likely to be especially difficult in the case of Indonesia (see Stephen Sherlock, The Bali Bombing: What it Means for Indonesia, Current Issues Brief, 22 October 2002). However, further attention will also be needed to alleviate the social and economic disadvantage which has fuelled radical groups, especially in certain regions such as the southern Philippines (as the US analyst John Gershman has recently argued).
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