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Preference Flows at the 1998 House of Representatives Election
Gerard Newman
Statistics Group
31 August 1999
Introduction
This Research Note examines the significance of preferences in determining
the electoral result and utilises data available for the first time to
accurately determine the direction of minor party and independent preferences.1
At the 1998 House of Representatives election support for the major parties
(Australian Labor Party and the Coalition partners) fell to below 80 per
cent for the first time. The increase in support for the minor parties
and independent candidates resulted in a substantial increase in the number
of Electoral Divisions where the result was determined by the distribution
of preferences. At the 1998 election preferences were required to be distributed
in two-thirds of the Divisions compared with 44 per cent at the 1996 election.
The question of which of the major parties has benefited most from the
preferences of minor parties and independents has been the subject of
discussion since the introduction of preferential voting in 1918.
In the modern era of Australian politics (post-1949) there has been a
considerable shift in the direction of minor party preferences. In the
1950s and 1960s, the Coalition parties were the clear beneficiary of minor
party preferences largely thanks to the Democratic Labor Party (DLP).
The demise of the DLP and the advent of new centre-orientated parties
in the 1970s resulted in the advantage enjoyed by the Coalition being
substantially reduced. This trend has continued to such an extent that
by the 1980s and early 1990s the Australian Labor Party enjoyed a substantial
advantage.
Aggregate Preferences
In 1984 the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 was changed so that
a two-party preferred vote figure (ALP/Coalition) could be calculated
in all Electoral Divisions. Data from this process allows the calculation
of the difference between the aggregate first preference vote figure for
the major parties and the two-party preferred vote figure to show what
proportion of preferences the major parties received.
Table 1 shows the difference between the first preference votes and the
two-party preferred vote for the major parties at each House of Representatives
since 1984.
In the elections held in the 1980s and early 90s the Labor Party was
the clear beneficiary of the aggregate preferences of minor parties and
independents. However, in the last two elections the Coalition has been
able to reduce the advantage enjoyed by the Labor Party with the 1998
result being the most even of the past six elections.
The Labor Party enjoyed an advantage over the Coalition at the 1998 election
in being able to win more seats than the Coalition after being behind
on first preference votes. Labor won four seats (Bass, Kingston, McMillan
and Stirling) after trailing the Coalition on first preferences while
the Coalition was able to only win one seat (Hinkler) after trailing the
Labor Party.
Party Preferences
While it is clear from the above that the Labor Party has been the main
beneficiary of minor party and independent preferences overall in recent
elections, what has not been clear is the support from individual minor
parties and independents. Prior to the 1998 election empirical evidence
was not available on the direction of individual minor party or independent
preferences. In respect of the 1998 election the Australian Electoral
Commission (AEC), for the first time, has made available data that allows
for the calculation of the direction of minor party and independent preferences.
This data is summarised in Table 2.
The table shows, for each party contesting the 1998 House of Representatives
election, the number of first preference votes the party received and
the percentage of those votes that flowed to the Labor Party and to the
Coalition when the party's preferences were distributed. All parties and
independent candidates are included in the table except for those in Divisions
where there was not an ALP/Coalition final contest (Calare, Blair, Mayo
and Newcastle).
While the data in the table generally confirms conventional wisdom regarding
the direction of minor preferences, some interesting trends emerge.
- The Coalition partners (in three-cornered contests) heavily favoured
each other.
- One Nation favoured the Coalition (53.62%) but not by the margin that
was predicted before the election.
- Parties of the 'left' favoured the Labor Party (Greens-73.28%, Democratic
Socialist Party-73.51%, Progressive Labor Party-91.40%, Socialist Equity
Party-54.99%).
- Parties of the 'right' generally favoured the Coalition (Christian
Democratic Party-65.32%, Australia First Party-50.57%, Australian Shooters
Party-57.66%), although not always (Citizens Electoral Council-45.15%,
Tasmania First Party-41.97%).
- Labor also benefited from the more centre-orientated parties (Democrats-56.69%,
Unity-79.63%, Natural Law Party-56.21%, Australian Women's Party-66.90%).
- Single issue parties also generally favoured the Labor Party (No Aircraft
Noise-52.49%, Abolish Child Support-55.60%, Republican Party-61.54%).
- Independent preferences favoured the Coalition (53.71%), a result
distorted by votes for the two former Liberal members in Western Australia.
- This Research Note is based on data to be published by the Australian
Electoral Commission in the forthcoming CD-ROM version of the 1998 Election
results.
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