Background Note Index

Background Note

Climate change negotiations

Online only 26 August 2008, updated 2 October 2008

Nina Markovic and Nick Fuller
Foreign Affairs, Defence and Security Section

Contents

Introduction

In the recent Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme Green Paper the Rudd Government emphasised that a major part of its efforts to control global gas emissions would be its participation in international negotiations leading to a global agreement on this issue. [1] Australia is party to the Kyoto Protocol, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate, and has a number of bilateral and other international climate change partnerships. [2]   

There are many forthcoming international meetings that will have a bearing on the creation of a post-2012 international agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, not all of them are important for the negotiation of the eventual agreement itself. The purpose of the following paper is to outline the main international forums where this agreement is to be negotiated and to present a timetable of major Australian and international events and meetings leading up to these final negotiations. It also provides an outline of leading organisations which are likely to influence international climate change negotiations.

This paper will be a ‘living’ document, updated to include any new developments regarding domestic or international climate change negotiations.    

International organisations

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is the most important inter-governmental treaty on climate change. It sets an overall framework for international efforts to reduce the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. It was adopted in May 1992, and came into force on 21 March 1994 . As at July 2008, 192 countries had ratified the UNFCCC. [3]

The treaty’s main objective is:

… to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human induced) interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened, and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner. [4]

Developed nations are required to cut overall greenhouse gas emissions by an average of 5.2 per cent below 1990 levels over the first commitment period 2008–2012. Under the Convention, developing countries do not have legally binding emissions targets to compensate for their economic development vis-à-vis developed states.

Furthermore, under the Convention, the developed countries (or Annex I countries) are required to maintain national greenhouse gas inventories, and to report annual emissions of greenhouse gases. [5]  Annex I countries also have an obligation:  

… to adopt national policies and take corresponding measures on the mitigation of climate change, by limiting … anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gas and protecting and enhancing … greenhouse gas sinks and reservoirs. This is to indicate that developed countries are taking the lead in modifying longer-term trends in anthropogenic emissions consistent with the objective of the Convention. [6]

Annex II countries are those developed nations that have agreed to contribute to the cost of developing countries adapting to climate change. [7] This may include the transfer of technology, knowledge and resources, as well as providing economic incentives to the latter. [8]

Developing countries are encouraged under the Convention to maintain national inventories of greenhouse gas emissions. [9]  These countries may volunteer to become Annex I countries once they have achieved significant levels of industrial development. The Convention also encourages the promotion of an open international economic system that would lead to sustainable economic growth and development in all parties.

All parties to the Convention meet each year to discuss progress of the Convention. This meeting is called the ‘Conference of the Parties’ (COP). There have been thirteen COPs to date, with the Bali Conference in December 2007 being the most recent. At the Bali Conference Australia ratified an additional protocol to the UNFCCC treaty—the Kyoto Protocol.

The Kyoto Protocol

The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in the Japanese city of Kyoto on 11 December 1997, entering into force on 16 February 2005. It sets legally binding greenhouse gas emissions targets for developed countries. Developing countries can be signatories to the Protocol, but legally binding targets do not apply to them. To date, the Protocol has been ratified by 182 parties to the UNFCCC. [10]

The Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd signed the instrument of ratification of the Kyoto Protocol on 3 December 2007 at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bali. [11] This meeting set out the ‘Bali Road Map’, which lists a number of initiatives such as an agreement by all parties to map out a post-2012 global climate change agreement within two years. It also calls for a larger role for developing nations—in particular China and India—to make greater contributions on greenhouse gas emission reductions.

Post-Kyoto agreement

International negotiations on the post-2012 Kyoto agreement are currently underway. COP 14 will take place in early December 2008 in the Polish city of Poznań. COP15––which will take place in the capital of Denmark, Copenhagen in 2009––is the landmark international meeting that will include discussions on the development of ‘a long-term post-2012 set of arrangements for the international community on climate change including carbon targets’. [12] Australia is currently investing significant resources ahead of the Copenhagen negotiations.

Responsibility within government for development and coordination of international climate change policy and negotiations for the post-2012 Kyoto agreement was transferred from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade to the Department of Climate Change in the 2008–09 Budget. [13]

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

This inter-governmental scientific body was established in 1988 with the aim of being an ‘objective source of information about climate change’. [14] It regularly evaluates published scientific, technical and socio-economic material relevant to the understanding of climate change. It then produces authoritative reports, which in the early 1990s contributed to the creation of the UNFCCC.

The structure of the IPCC is as follows:

• Working Group I, which covers the physical science of climate change

• Working Group II, which deals with adaptation to climate change and assesses its impacts and vulnerability

• Working Group III, which deals with the mitigation of climate change, and

• Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (TFI), which oversees the IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme.

The IPCC continues to be a major source of information for the UNFCCC-led negotiations on the global climate change policy. Its recent publications include Technical Paper VI: Climate Change and Water, published in June 2008, and IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), published on 17 November 2007. [15]

Other relevant international organisations

The European Union

The European Union (EU) is the principal European inter-governmental organisation with twenty seven member states. In 2005, it launched the European Union Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) in an effort to control emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and combat the threat of climate change with its consequences for European and global security. [16] The EU ETS is the world’s largest market in greenhouse gas emissions trading, covering over 14 000 installations across the EU.

The scheme commenced in January 2005. The first phase of the EU ETS ran from 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2007 , with a second phase running from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2012 . The second phase coincided with the first Kyoto Commitment Period. The EU has announced that a third phase will follow in 2013 and it is likely to lead international efforts aimed at reducing global greenhouse gas emissions. [17]

ASEAN

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was established in 1967 and is now the leading inter-governmental organisation in Southeast Asia. [18] It is composed of developing countries with no obligatory targets regarding the reduction of greenhouse gases: Brunei Darussalam, Burma (Myanmar), Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. [19] ASEAN members cooperate in three main areas: security, economic affairs and socio-cultural affairs.  The ASEAN ‘Vision 2020’ declaration projects ASEAN as an active and outward-looking player in the international community.

ASEAN cooperation on environmental matters is expanding annually. The major environmental problems for ASEAN include:

 … growing population and extension of agricultural land into forest and other ecologically sensitive areas and pollution due to accelerated industrialisation and urbanisation in ASEAN member countries– both of which affect climate. [20]

‘Global environmental issues’ is one of the main priority areas for ASEAN. [21] To address climate change and other environmental problems, ASEAN has put into practice the Vientiane Action Programme 2004–2010 (VAP), which among other issues addresses the cooperative management of environment and natural resources. [22] In 2007, ASEAN member states published the Singapore Declaration on Climate Change, Energy and the Environment:

[affirming their] commitment to the UNFCCC… and for relevant countries, the Kyoto Protocol [including] a post-2012 international climate change arrangement under the UNFCCC processes. [23]

ASEAN also created the Working Group on Multilateral Environmental Agreements to help implement ‘existing international instruments or agreements in the field of environment’. [24]

ASEAN has recently held or participated in the following climate change-related events:

• the Thirteenth ASEAN Summit : “Energy, Environment, Climate Change and Sustainable Development” (Singapore, November 2007)

• the Thirteenth Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC, and

• the Third Meeting of the Parties (MOP) of the Kyoto Protocol (Bali, Indonesia, December 2007). [25]

There has been no proposal to date by the ASEAN members to adopt mandatory greenhouse gas reduction targets. They continue to receive assistance from Annex II countries, including Australia, in the form of clean energy technologies and financial support to help them deal with the effects of global warming and climate change.

APEC

The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) is a multilateral economic organisation created in 1989.  It comprises: Australia , Brunei Darussalam, Canada , Chile , China , Hong Kong , Indonesia , Japan , South Korea , Malaysia , Mexico , New Zealand , Papua New Guinea , Peru , the Philippines , Russia , Singapore , Taiwan , Thailand , the United States of America , and Vietnam .

Climate change has recently become a focus for APEC.  A September 2007 research report by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics stated that the economies of APEC countries in 2004 accounted for about 61 per cent of global economic output, 60 per cent of global energy consumption, 58 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions, and were expected to grow at an average rate of 3 per cent annually by 2050. [26] Energy consumption by then is expected to increase by 139 per cent, and greenhouse gas emissions by 130 per cent.  However, these figures could potentially be reduced by using ‘cleaner, more advanced and energy efficient technologies’. [27]  

APEC has instituted programs relating to energy investment and trade, energy efficiency, energy technology, transport emissions and alternative fuels. [28] On 9 September 2007 in Sydney , APEC adopted the Declaration on Climate Change, Energy Security and Clean Development. [29] The Declaration called for a post-Kyoto international climate change agreement to reduce greenhouse gases. It is expected that the implementation of the Sydney Declaration will be discussed at the APEC meetings in Peru in November 2008.

Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate

The Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate (APP) consists of large, fast growing economies that are responsible for around half the world’s emissions, energy use, GDP and population. It brings together Australia , Canada , China , India , Japan , the Republic of Korea and the United States to address the challenges of climate change, energy security and air pollution in a way that encourages economic development and reduces poverty. [30]

Prior to Australia ’s ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, the APP had been one of Australia ’s main multilateral responses to addressing global climate change. In the 2008–09 Budget, the new Government decided not to proceed with funding for the program. [31] However, in June 2008, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, in a joint press release with Yasuo Fukuda, the Japanese Prime Minister and President of the G8 for 2008, pledged Australia’s commitment to further engagement in the APP, including public-private partnerships to share best practices and improve energy efficiency in the APP. [32]

G8 Summit

The Group of Eight is a meeting of major industrialised states which plays a major role in shaping the post-Kyoto climate change agreement. The Group of Seven expanded in 1997 to include Russia. It now comprises Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States. G8 Finance Ministers, who met in Osaka (Japan) in June 2008, prior to the 34^th Summit of the G8 Heads of State meeting, agreed to the ‘G8 Action Plan for Climate Change to Enhance the Engagement of Private and Public Financial Institutions’. [33] On this occasion, the Ministers called for public-private partnerships in addressing climate change.

In Tokyo, on 2 July 2008, parliamentarians from the G8 and the five developing economies of China, Brazil, India, South Africa and Mexico agreed that developed countries should aim to reduce their emissions to 25–40 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020, and 60–80 per cent below 1990 emissions by 2050. Their agreement was presented to Mr Fukuda, the Japanese President of the G8, ahead of the summit. [34]

On 8 July 2008 , the Group of Eight issued a communiqué from Tokyo stating its collective intent to cut emissions by 50 per cent by 2050. This was the first time the US had agreed to such targets.

On 9 July 2008, it was reported that developing nations had insisted they required more time to develop their economies, and had therefore rejected the targets agreed upon by the industrialised nations. The rejection has been described as “torpedoing” the G8 Summit communiqué, with media sources crediting the rally to resist the 2050 targets primarily to China and India. [35]

The UN Secretary-General, Ban Ki-Moon, while welcoming the statement of the G8 Summit on climate change and environment, called for further international action on climate change:

By next year in Copenhagen we need to collectively agree to ambitious mid-term emission reduction targets for developed countries, coupled with meaningful efforts by developing countries to reduce the growth of their emissions. [36]

The World Bank

Conclusion

Under the Rudd Government, it is expected Australia will be actively engaged in global climate change negotiations, as indicated in the 2008–09 Budget. [41]   The Government has made it clear it will continue towards implementing a national system for the reduction of greenhouse gases, as prescribed by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change for Annex I countries. This may take the form of a greenhouse gas emissions trading scheme, although concerns are likely to remain about the effects of the proposed scheme on the Australian economy. 

Calendar of climate change negotiations

The following table shows the significant Australian events leading up to the start of an Australian Emissions Trading Scheme. It also shows scheduled international meetings that will most likely have an influence on the content of any final international agreement on climate change negotiated under the UNFCCC.

Sources: Australian Government Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme Green Paper.

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