Research Note no. 30 2003-04
Electing the US President(1)
Scott Bennett
Politics and Public Administration Group
10 February 2004
The campaign for the US Presidency is well under way.
The winner will be an American-born citizen, aged at least 35 years.
The popular vote is held on the first Tuesday after the first Monday
in November2 November in 2004.
A Presidential term is four years.
The Electoral College
Despite this popular vote, the result is decided by
the Electoral College, not directly by the people. The electoral process
is thus a major example of an indirect election.
Each state is given a number of Electoral College votes
equal to its number of Senators (2) and Representatives (which in turn
depends on population). Thus California has 55 Electoral College votes,
while Vermont has 3. The District of Columbia (DC) also has 3.
With a Congress of 535 (100 of whom are Senators),
plus the 3 DC votes, the Electoral College has numbered 538 since 1961;
a majority of votes (270) is needed to gain election.
Every ten years a national census is held, a consequence
of which is the reapportioning of House of Representatives numbers. This
process flows on to affect the state numbers in the Electoral College
and means that population shifts will slowly alter the electoral significance
of particular states or regions. As the number of Electoral College votes
is constant, an increase in one state's votes must necessarily cause a
drop in another'sthough each is guaranteed a minimum of 3 votes. Since
1976 California's vote has grown from 45 to 55, and New York's has dropped
from 41 to 31.
Whichever candidate wins the most popular votes in
a state wins all the Electoral College vote for that stateit has been
called a 'winner-take-all' system.(2) For example, in 2000
Al Gore (DemocratD),
led George W.
Bush (RepublicanR) by just 0.2 per cent of the 2.59
million votes cast in Wisconsin, but won all of the state's 11 Electoral
College votes.
In four elections (J. Q. Adams 1824, Hayes 1876, Harrison
1888, Bush 2000) the Electoral College has chosen a President who trailed
his major opponent in the popular vote.
If no candidate gains 270 votes, the election is decided
by the House of Representatives, with all representatives of a state voting
as a unit, and each state having 1 vote. This occurred after the 1800
(Jefferson) and 1824 elections.
There have been many critics of this system, described
by the American Bar Association as 'archaic, undemocratic, complex, ambiguous,
indirect, and dangerous'.(3) Efforts to alter the system, most
recently by Presidents Nixon (R) and Carter (D), have never succeeded.
An Electoral Marathon
The marathon that is the US
Presidential election lasts for approximately two years. There are various
clearly identified stages in the process: pre-convention, convention and
campaign.
Primaries and Caucuses
The Democrat and Republican parties formally choose
their Presidential and Vice-Presidential candidates at national conventions
(see below). Every state has a certain number of delegates to each convention.
In 2004 these delegates will be chosen in state-run caucuses and primary
elections held between January and June.
A state caucus is a multi-stage, internal party process
that takes many weeks to conduct, but which encourages grassroots party
participation. The number of delegates chosen by this method is declining
as more states switch to primaries.
Primaries are public ballots of registered party supporters
to determine who will be the party's candidate. They have become the preferred
method of delegate selection in many states. In 2004 there will be primaries
in 38 states, six fewer than in 2000. New Hampshire's primary is traditionally
the first to be held27 January in 2004.
'Frontloading'
Primaries and caucuses were once spread out across
the first half of an election year. Their scheduling has altered greatly
in recent years as states have attempted to make their primaries politically
more significant. Many primaries and caucuses are now squeezed into a
very few days early in the calendar, a process popularly referred to as
'frontloading'.
The frontloading push has continued with 16 states
holding Democrat primaries or caucuses in February, including five primaries
and two caucuses on 3 February alone. It is quite likely that the
February primaries will determine the outcome of the nominating contests
for the Democrats, even earlier than in 2000, when the Republican nomination
was known by early March, four months before the party's convention.
The Conventions
The national conventions were once important decision-making
bodies, for they actually determined the nominees. The 1976 Republican
nomination was uncertain until President Ford won narrowly
from Ronald Reagan at
the convention.
Reform of delegate selection rules since 1972 has seen
a rapid change in the conventions' function. Their primary role has shifted
from candidate selection to public relations. Television has been significant
in making them not much more than 'tightly scripted made-for-TV spectacles'.(4)
The presentation of attractive Presidential and Vice-Presidential
candidates, the drafting of a vote-winning platform and the energising
of party activists for the campaign proper are now the main functions
of the conventions. The modern party convention, has been described as
'the ultimate campaign rally'.(5)
The 2004 Democratic National Convention, will be held
in Boston, 267 July.
The 2004 Republican National Convention, will be held
in New York, 30 August2 September.
The Campaign
After the conventions, the campaign usually enters
a summer lull until Labor Day, the first Monday in September. Traditionally,
this is when the campaign enters full gear for the hectic period up to
the day of voting.
Although the focus is on the Democrat and Republican
candidates, there is always a plethora of other candidates. In 2000 there
were 16 minor party and independent candidates. Occasionally, as with
George Wallace (1968),
Ross Perot (1992, 1996)
or Ralph Nader (2000)
a third party candidate can be a factor, but this is unusual.
The need to win Electoral College votes means that
candidates concentrate very much on the major cities and largest states,
particularly if their voting intentions are unclear. In fact, a candidate
could win office by winning the popular vote in just the eleven largest
states.
No candidate today would pledge to visit each of the
fifty states as Richard Nixon (R) did in 1960. Apart from the programming
difficulty, it would be seen as an inefficient use of time. Rather more
typical would be Ronald Reagan's
(R) relative neglect of the South, which was considered solid for him
in 1984, so as to focus his efforts upon the North-East region.
Since the days of the Kennedy (D) versus Nixon (R)
contest in 1960, a major aspect of the campaign period has come to be
the televised debate, an opportunity to engage in person-to-person argument
in front of a national audience.
In modern elections, much of the candidates' time is
taken up with poll-driven activity. The parties use polls to help them
make three major decisions: where to compete, the issues to emphasise
and which candidate strengths to stress.
Television has also produced a greater emphasis upon
negative campaigning. The successful attacks in 1988 by George Bush (R)
upon the 'liberal' values of Michael Dukakis (D), is perhaps the best-known
example of recent times.
The Count
The Electoral College votes are registered on the first
Monday after the second Wednesday in December (13 December 2004). The
ballots are opened and counted by the Congress on 6 January (or the next
day if this falls on a Sunday).
The Inauguration
The winner of the election is inaugurated as President
on 20 January following the election.
Endnotes
- This Research Note is an update of a Research Note, Scott
Bennett, 'Electing
the US President', Department
of the Parliamentary Library, Research Note no. 13, 19992000.
- Technically, Maine and Nebraska are exceptions, http://www.fec.gov.
- G. Edwards,
M. Wattenberg and R.
Lineberry, Government in America,
New York, 7th ed. 1996, p. 258.
- 'Conventions', Democracy in Action, http://www.gwu.edu/~action/chrnconv.html,
p. 2.
- Congressional Quarterly's Guide to U.S.
Elections, Washington, 3rd ed 1994, p.13.
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