Research Note 14 1999-2000

University Completion Rates in the 1960s and 1990s

Kim Jackson
Social Policy Group
23 November 1999

The Department of Education, Training and Youth Affairs (DETYA) recently published an analysis of the progress of 128 934 non-overseas students who commenced an undergraduate degree in 1992(1). The purpose of the study was to determine the percentage of students that completed their degrees and the characteristics that affected completion. This was the first comprehensive survey of the progress of a university cohort since a similar study in the 1960s(2). The DETYA analysis found that the probability of completing an award is around 66 per cent although this figure does not take into account those students who return to study in later years and complete their degrees. The DETYA survey also allows this factor to be estimated. It concludes that just over 81 per cent of students without a prior award in the 1992 cohort will complete an award at some time.

The major findings of the DETYA study are as follows:

• women are almost ten per cent more likely to complete a course than men
• full-timers are more likely to complete than part-timers
• Tertiary Entrance Rank (TER) scores are a good predictor of completions
• the probability of completing declines as age increases
• school leavers have higher completion rates than those who enter on any other basis
• socio-economic status has only a marginal impact on completion rates
• students from non-English speaking backgrounds (NESB) have higher completion rates than others
• students from isolated areas have much lower completion rates than urban students
• vocational courses (health, education, veterinary science) have much higher completion rates than generalist courses (arts, science, business).

A summary of the completion data from which these conclusions are derived is given in Table 2 below.

In its raw form, the data acquired in the DETYA analysis can be compared with that obtained by the 1960s study of pass rates. This work followed the 1961 cohort of 10 279 commencing undergraduates through to 1967. In 1961 there were only ten universities with a total enrolment of 57 672, of which only 23 per cent were female(3). Despite the small size of the system, there was little 'unmet demand' for university places(4). In 1992 forty-five institutions enrolled 559 365 higher education students, of which 53 per cent were female. In the same year it was estimated that there were between 34 000 and 49 700 eligible applicants unable to obtain a place in the system. Despite these significant differences, the overall completion outcomes for the two periods are quite similar. In 1967, 58 per cent of the 1961 cohort completed their degree, 37 per cent had discontinued and 5 per cent were still studying. In 1997, 60 per cent of the 1992 cohort had completed, 34 per cent had discontinued and 6 per cent were still studying. These overall results conceal some dramatic changes in outcomes for particular sub-groups. This can be seen in Table 1, which compares some of the results of the 1961 and 1992 surveys.

Table 1: A Comparison of the 1961 and 1992 Cohorts

Source: See endnotes 1 and 2.

It cannot be inferred from a change in the completion rate that 'standards' have risen or fallen. The completion rates shown are aggregates of many autonomous institutions and it is highly unlikely that movements in these aggregates reflect coherent systemic shifts in student assessment. It is more likely that they reflect changes in the nature of the student cohort, such as the increasing proportion of females and NESB students. Large variations for particular subjects are more likely due to changes in student demand, as completion rates correlate strongly with TER scores. Thus the increases in the completion rates for medicine, veterinary science and economics are probably the result of the increased demand for these courses in the 1990s. In the 1960s it was possible for students with average matriculation results to obtain places in medical and veterinary schools: nowadays these are among the most difficult courses to enter. On this analysis, the variation of most concern to policy makers would be the significant declines in completion rates for engineering, science and agriculture. These are areas seen as vital for the economy, particularly with regard to the application of new technologies to improve productivity and output. The other significant result from this comparison is the dramatic improvement in part-time completion rates. This is perhaps an indication of the success of the system in adapting to the needs of these students over recent years.

Table 2: Completion Rates for the 1992 Cohort by Category

Source: See endnote 1.

1. M. Urban and others, Completions Undergraduate academic outcomes for 1992 commencing students, DETYA Higher Education Division, Occasional Paper Series, August 1999.
2. Department of Education and Science and the Australian Vice-Chancellors' Committee, The 1961 study An analysis of the progress of new bachelor degree entrants to Australian universities in 1961, AGPS, Canberra, 1971.
3. These figures do not include students in other tertiary institutions such as Colleges of Advanced Education and Teachers Colleges. It is estimated that in 1963 around 117 900 students were undertaking tertiary courses equivalent to current higher education courses. Some 69 000 of these were at universities.
4. In 1962 only 947 qualified applicants were excluded by quotas on university courses.

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